黄金破 4000 之后怎么看？20251009 摘要 预计年内黄金价格走势仍然乐观，即使已经突破 4,000 美元每盎司后仍有上升 空间。当前全球经济需求周期下行和财政收敛路径曲折的宏观组合没有显著改 变，因此短期内金价回调压力较小。然而，需要关注降息周期末期可能带来的 当前黄金市场的宏观逻辑未变，发达经济体财政风险暴露及货币信用受 损担忧持续支撑金价，全球需求下行和财政收敛路径曲折强化了这一逻 辑。 预计年内黄金价格走势乐观，突破 4,000 美元/盎司后仍有上升空间，短 期回调压力较小，但需关注降息周期末期及复苏交易抬头带来的回调风 险。 2026 年一季度，美国经济数据将是观察重点，复苏交易或 AI 发展可能 对金价形成回调压力，市场主线选择将导致资金分流。 黄金定价机制中，ETF 市场需求、全球央行购金及期货热度是关键需求 因素，金融投资参与者行为对短期价格趋势影响显著。 2025 年金价创新高主要驱动因素是西方市场 ETF 资金流入强劲，而中 国和印度金饰消费下滑对价格影响较小。 实物黄金投资者提供底部支撑，ETF 市场和 COMEX 期货对短期金价走 势影响显著，COMEX 期货仓位显示交易情绪相 ...

本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货-宏观2025年四季报 美联储降息重启与反内卷 有望催生出一轮大宗商品的结构性牛市 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 研究咨询部： 王 静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 报告时间： 2025年9月29日 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 核心观点--回顾2025年宏观经济与资产表现 2025年，世界在动荡中，正式进入特朗普2.0时代。美国对外关税贸易战开打，对等关税重创全球，更搅动美国资本市场； 对内整顿清算驱赶移民，加剧两党斗争，引发多地游行动乱；同时，推动大漂亮法案，扩张财政给"富人"减税为"资本" 松 绑，提振美股却动摇着美国的信用根基，美债遭到穆迪下调信用评级，美元跌至年内新低，美债利率震荡高企。与此同时，中 国"针锋相对"奉陪到底，强硬对等反制多次谈判迎来转机，关税大幅下调，稀土出口管制更是掐住"七寸"，中美博弈从被 动应对转为主动出击。一季度DeepSeek震撼问世哪吒闹海，扭转了国内的悲观预期，演绎出了一轮科技股行情，东升西降的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of the credit cycle in analyzing the macroeconomic trends and asset prices in China and the U.S., highlighting the divergence in their economic and monetary cycles since mid-2021. The credit cycle framework helps explain the resilience of U.S. growth and stock valuations under high interest rates, while China's growth and valuations face pressure under low interest rates from 2022 to 2024 [2][4]. Group 1: Credit Cycle Components - The credit cycle consists of three main components: new industrial trends represented by AI, government-led fiscal stimulus, and traditional private sector demand represented by real estate consumption and manufacturing. The effectiveness of the latter two components largely depends on the difference between investment returns and financing costs [2]. - The U.S. credit cycle may restart after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, potentially leading to overheating risks, while China's credit cycle may experience fluctuations or weakness due to high base effects, necessitating increased policy support [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Recent Developments - Since the fourth quarter of last year, both China and the U.S. have experienced turning points in their credit cycles. China's credit cycle has been recovering due to fiscal efforts and reduced private sector drag, while the U.S. has faced challenges leading to credit contraction [5][6]. - In China, significant fiscal stimulus has led to a notable increase in government spending, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% in broad fiscal expenditure from January to August. The fiscal deficit pulse improved from 1.1% at the end of last year to a peak of 2% in June, before slightly retreating to 1.6% in August [6][8]. Group 3: U.S. Credit Cycle Challenges - The U.S. credit cycle has faced contraction due to various challenges, including reduced fiscal spending and concerns over AI investment sustainability. Despite initial fears, technology investments have accelerated since the second quarter, with capital expenditures of major tech firms increasing by 67% year-on-year [10][12]. - Government credit has contracted since the beginning of the year, with the fiscal pulse declining due to high base effects. The private sector's credit growth has also slowed, with private social financing growth dropping from 2.6% in March to 1.8% in August [15][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook for the U.S. Credit Cycle - Looking ahead, the U.S. credit cycle is expected to recover, driven by AI investments, fiscal spending, and a gradual recovery in traditional private demand. The new fiscal year starting in October is anticipated to see increased government spending, with an estimated $480 billion in new expenditures [24][26]. - Traditional demand is expected to improve following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with mortgage rates declining and new home sales reaching an annualized rate of 800,000 in August, the highest since January 2022 [30][32]. Group 5: Implications for China - China's credit cycle is likely to face challenges due to high base effects, with traditional private demand showing signs of slowing down. Retail sales growth has declined, and real estate sales remain weak, necessitating policy intervention to support the credit cycle [47][48]. - Fiscal policy will play a crucial role in influencing the overall credit cycle, but it may also face high base challenges. The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate has already shown signs of slowing down, which could impact the effectiveness of fiscal measures [57][58].

Core Viewpoint - Active foreign capital continues to flow out of A-shares, increasing to $0.7 billion compared to $0.3 billion last week, while outflows from overseas Chinese stocks also expanded to $2.4 billion from $0.75 billion last week [1][2] Group 1: Foreign Capital Flows - Passive foreign capital continues to flow into overseas Chinese stocks, with inflows of $20.7 billion compared to $30.7 billion last week, and into A-shares at $10.5 billion versus $10 billion last week [1][2] - As of August, the proportion of active foreign capital allocated to China increased from 6.4% in July to 6.7%, while the proportion of passive funds rose to 8% [2] - The under-allocation degree decreased from 1.45 percentage points in July to 1.35 percentage points, but remains lower than 1.31 percentage points in June, indicating slow accumulation by active funds [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - Southbound capital accelerated inflows, with $439.6 billion HKD this week compared to $368.5 billion HKD last week, averaging $87.9 billion HKD daily versus $73.7 billion HKD last week [2] - The most net increased holdings were in Alibaba and Meituan, while reductions were seen in Huahong, CSPC Pharmaceutical, and China Telecom [2] - The overall market is expected to experience high-level fluctuations, primarily driven by strong structural expectations, but will inevitably face volatility due to rotation [2] - Factors contributing to market fluctuations include: 1) Accelerating domestic fundamentals weakening, 2) Potential turning point in macro liquidity, 3) Improvement in overseas liquidity but expectations have already been priced in, 4) Extreme sentiment and technical indicators, 5) Active micro liquidity [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Recent market volatility was influenced by both internal and external catalysts, with significant structural differentiation observed [3] - The US GDP revision and strong durable goods orders have driven the dollar and US long-term bond yields higher, aligning with previous expectations that a rate cut does not equate to a decline in bond yields and the dollar [3] - Recommendations suggest focusing on "short-term time loss but long-term space gain" strategies, similar to previous trends in the internet sector and current banking/dividend stocks [3] - Current intersections of economic conditions, event catalysts, and market crowding include: 1) Strong expectations for AI-related hardware and applications, 2) Ongoing attention to US-China relations, 3) Supply disruptions in copper mines and AI advancements, 4) Trade frictions affecting certain industries [3]

Group 1 - Freeport-McMoRan announced force majeure on its supply contract for the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, impacting copper supply [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has begun, leading to increased market liquidity and opening up upward space for copper prices [1] - As of the latest report, the Shanghai copper main contract is priced at 82,320.00 CNY/ton, with a rise of 2.91%, while the international copper main contract is at 73,060.00 CNY/ton, up 3.03% [3] Group 2 - Guangfa Futures indicates that the long-term supply-demand imbalance provides bottom support for copper prices, with a gradual upward shift in price levels [1] - Short-term price increases are driven by disruptions at the mining end, with attention on potential shifts in macro market sentiment towards recovery trading and marginal changes in demand [1]

来源：市场投研资讯 美联储降息是指美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）下调联邦基金利率的行为。该利率是美国银行间互 相借贷的隔夜利率，其变动会传导至各类贷款利率和资产收益率，进而影响实体经济与金融市场。美联 储降息通常出于两类动机：一是"预防式降息"，即在经济尚未出现明显衰退但增长放缓、就业市场疲软 或通胀压力缓解时，提前采取宽松政策以防范风险；二是"危机式降息"，即在金融系统出现如金融危 机、疫情冲击等严重问题时，为缓解流动性紧张和经济衰退压力而快速大幅降息。 根据招商证券的研报分析，本次降息属于"预防式降息"。当前美国经济呈现明显的分化：一方面，与人 工智能、云计算等相关的科技领域投资保持强劲，企业资本开支计划积极；另一方面，传统制造业活动 持续处于收缩区间，衡量制造业景气程度的采购经理人指数PMI多月位于荣枯线下方，房地产市场在经 历前期利率高企后依然表现疲软。同时，最新的就业数据显示新增岗位数量放缓，失业率有所抬升。尽 管通胀水平相较于历史低点有所回升，当前支持降息的理由主要基于劳动力市场前景的恶化风险已经超 过了通胀可能持续超标的担忧。此次降息被视为一种微调，目的是在经济增长放缓迹象初现时提供支 持， ...

本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的 其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所 担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货书 机留及分析方法 险目打 授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为"广发期货"。 | 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月23日 星期二 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 80225 | 79990 | +235.00 | 0.29% | 7C/ HQG | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 60 | 70 | -10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies on global markets, particularly focusing on the Chinese market, and the emerging human-shaped robot industry led by Tesla. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy** The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut of 25 basis points, with expectations of two more cuts in 2025, but the market's response has been muted due to uncertainties in future rate paths [2][4][3]. 2. **Impact on Chinese Market** The People's Bank of China has maintained the LPR unchanged, indicating that external liquidity from the Fed has not fully transmitted to China. Policy coordination is essential for amplifying the Fed's effects on the A-share market [1][3][4]. 3. **Market Rotation in 2025** The markets in China, the US, and Hong Kong are expected to exhibit significant quarterly rotation, driven by AI developments. The US market is anticipated to benefit from earnings growth, while the A-share market relies on valuation improvements [1][6]. 4. **Current Economic Environment in China** The Chinese market is facing weakening macro fundamentals, with liquidity remaining ample. Key indicators such as real estate and consumption are showing signs of decline [11][16]. 5. **Human-shaped Robot Industry** This sector is viewed as a major industry for the next decade, with Tesla playing a leading role. The market size is expected to reach hundreds of billions, driven by applications in both industrial and household settings [26][27]. 6. **Tesla's Influence** Tesla's optimistic production expectations for human-shaped robots have significantly influenced market sentiment. Recent management changes and product iterations have also affected market dynamics [27][28]. 7. **Investment Opportunities in AI and Internet Sectors** The internet sector is shifting focus towards AI, overseas expansion, and instant retail, with companies like Alibaba and JD.com adjusting their strategies accordingly [22][23]. 8. **Hardware and Technology Iterations in Robotics** Key hardware iterations in human-shaped robots include cost reduction and performance enhancement, with Chinese suppliers having a competitive edge in cost efficiency [30][31]. 9. **Sensor Technology Trends** The sensor field is experiencing a transformation, particularly in robotics and automotive components, with an increasing focus on tactile sensors [33]. 10. **Valuation Opportunities in Automotive Parts** Companies involved in automotive parts that are also entering the human-shaped robot market are expected to see significant valuation increases as the industry matures [34]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The need for investors to monitor macroeconomic indicators and policy changes closely to adjust investment strategies accordingly [5][16]. - The potential for a shift in investor sentiment towards high-risk financial assets as the real estate market adjusts [20][21]. - The importance of understanding the competitive landscape and financial health of internet companies when evaluating new investment directions [24][25].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The impact of rate cuts on copper prices depends on the reason and macro - background. The previous loose trading may end, and attention should be paid to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading. The copper market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the short - term, it will at least maintain a volatile trend, and the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina futures price was volatile last week. The supply pressure is prominent, and the demand pull from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The alumina price is expected to fluctuate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection point [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price declined last week. The cost support is significant, and the demand is in a mild recovery. The short - term spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The main contract reference range this week is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The import TC is rising steadily, and the supply side is expected to be loose. The demand side shows differentiation at home and abroad. The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 [7]. Tin - The Fed cut interest rates in September. The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to remain volatile at a high level, with the reference range of 265,000 - 285,000. Attention should be paid to the tin ore import from Myanmar [9]. Nickel - The nickel price was volatile last week. After the Fed's rate cut, the macro - sentiment was digested. There is no obvious change in the spot transaction of refined nickel. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 120,000 - 125,000, and attention should be paid to the macro - expectation and ore news [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price declined slightly last week. The raw material price is firm, but the peak - season demand has not been realized. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to the steel mill dynamics and peak - season demand [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price was volatile last week. The macro - sentiment has been digested, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. The short - term price is expected to be in an oscillatory arrangement, with the main price center of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [15]. Summaries by Catalog Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper remained at 79,990 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper's premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 110 yuan/ton to 1752 yuan/ton, with a 6.70% increase [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 3.18 million tons to 72.45 million tons, with a 4.59% increase [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum increased by 30 yuan/ton to 20,810 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 209 yuan/ton to 1850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM ADC12 in different regions remained unchanged. The scrap - new spreads in different regions increased, with the largest increase of 2.43% in the Foshan profile aluminum scrap - new spread [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,010 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 15.17 yuan/ton to 3120 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. The galvanizing starting rate increased by 1.99 percentage points to 58.05% [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin decreased by 900 yuan/ton to 269,300 yuan/ton. The SMM 1 tin premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 122,750 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 179 yuan/ton [11]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The SHFE inventory increased by 547 tons to 26,986 tons, with a 2.07% increase [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13,100 yuan/ton. The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,200 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 0.60 million tons to 47.20 million tons, with a 1.26% decrease [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 1 dollar/ton to 858 dollars/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The Fed's "preventive" rate cut may lead the US dollar to gradually bottom out. The copper market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the medium - long term, supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support, and the copper price center will gradually rise. In the short term, it will at least maintain a volatile trend. The main contract is expected to trade between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: For alumina, considering the cost, the downside space is limited, while the upside needs Guinea's supply changes or macro - sentiment catalysis. It is expected to trade between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the overall macro - environment is still slightly positive. The cost of alumina is weak, and demand is in the traditional peak season. However, the inventory is accumulating, so the price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract trading between 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, and the supply is constrained. The demand is moderately recovering, and the pre - holiday stocking demand supports the spot price. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand shows a differentiation between domestic and foreign markets. The zinc price is under pressure. In the short term, it may be driven by the macro - environment to rise, but the fundamentals have limited support for continuous upward movement. It is expected to be volatile, with the main contract trading between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Tin**: The macro - environment has a mixed impact. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak in traditional sectors but has some growth in emerging sectors. The fundamentals continue to improve, and the tin price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [9]. - **Nickel**: After the Fed's rate - cut expectation is realized, the macro - sentiment is digested. The industry has limited changes, and the inventory is rising overseas and slightly increasing domestically. The price is expected to be in an interval - volatile range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - environment is weak overseas and positive domestically. The raw material price is firm, but the demand in the peak season fails to meet expectations. The price is expected to be in a volatile adjustment, with the main contract trading between 12,800 - 13,200 yuan/ton [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - sentiment is gradually digested. The supply path is clear, and the demand in the peak season provides support for the price. The short - term price is expected to be in a volatile consolidation, with the main price center between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price remains unchanged at 79,990 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper premium increases by 15 yuan/ton. The SMM wet - process copper price rises by 10 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increases by 110 yuan/ton, or 6.70% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increases by 20 yuan/ton, the 2511 - 2512 spread increases by 40 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreases by 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production is 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the electrolytic copper import volume is 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The copper concentrate inventory in domestic ports increases by 3.18 million tons, or 4.59% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rises by 30 yuan/ton, or 0.14%. The import loss increases by 209 yuan/ton. The 2509 - 2510 spread decreases by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production is 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The electrolytic aluminum production is 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The electrolytic aluminum import volume in July is 24.83 million tons, and the export volume is 4.10 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remains unchanged at 20,950 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increase. The 2511 - 2512 spread increases by 5 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increases by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots is 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreases by 20 yuan/ton, or 0.09%. The import loss increases by 15.17 yuan/ton. The 2510 - 2511 spread increases by 15 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production is 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, the refined zinc import volume is 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35%, and the export volume is 0.04 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78.45% [7]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreases by 900 yuan/ton, or 0.33%. The SMM 1 tin premium increases by 50 yuan/ton, or 14.29%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increases by 30.59 dollars/ton, or 19.74% [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import volume is 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production is 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rises by 50 yuan/ton, or 0.04%. The LME 0 - 3 is - 179 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.88%. The import loss of futures increases by 13.47% [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production in August is 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The refined nickel import volume is 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remains unchanged at 13,100 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread remains unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) in August is 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The import volume is 7.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.30%, and the export volume is 41.63 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rises by 50 yuan/ton, or 0.07%. The 2510 - 2511 spread increases by 60 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production is 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The demand is 104,023 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.25%. The total inventory is 94,177 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75% [15].