来源：ATFX 在今晚美国公布12月非农前黄金价格企稳，截至周四当周，本周累计上涨3.4%，隔夜由于美国1月3日当周首次申请失 业救济人数略低于预期，黄金整体变动不大，尾盘温和收高，现货白银则连续第二个交易日走低。 美联储内部信号：数据公布后，美联储官员的评论（包括对通胀的担忧）将影响市场对政策路径的解读。 汇丰最新预计，受地缘政治风险和债务上升的影响，黄金价格在2026年上半年可能上涨至每盎司5000美元。将2026年 黄金平均价格预测从每盎司4600美元下调至4587美元，理由是价格上涨可能会在今年晚些时候引发价格回调。 今晚的非农就业报告，作为开年首个重磅数据，其结果将对市场产生"牵一发而动全身"的影响。考虑到当前市场正处 于对美联储政策路径极度敏感的时期，这份报告可能会引发较大的市场波动，尤其当前金价在近期大涨后正处于高位 震荡和获利回吐。 报告显著强于预期：市场将推迟对首次降息时点的预期，1月和3月的降息预期都会明显下降，对于黄金而言将是利 空，需要关注4400美元关口支撑。 12月就业数据将为市场提供关键线索，以判断美联储在2025年连续三次降息后是否会再次降息。彭博经济研究指出， 非农就业数据预 ...

大米(一级长粒)季度平均价格为3.28元(每500克，下同)，环比上涨0.60%，同比下跌0.24%；面粉(特一 粉)季度平均价格为2.35元，环比下跌0.80%，同比下跌2.57%。 部分粮油价格环比小幅上涨 中国发展网讯2025年第四季度，青岛市粮油副食品市场供应充足，监测数据显示，受供求关系和季节性 等因素影响，本季度部分粮油、蔬菜价格环比上涨，生猪猪肉、鸡蛋价格环比下跌。 5升桶装花生油季度平均价格为每桶133.12元，环比上涨0.01%，同比下跌1.58%。豆油季度平均价格为 59.95元，环比上涨0.88%，同比上涨0.01%。 生猪价格环比震荡下跌 城阳、华中、抚顺路三大蔬菜批发市场监测数据显示，第四季度三大蔬菜批发市场上市量为17958万公 斤，环比减少7.55%，同比减少2.86%。 蔬菜价格上涨 鸡蛋季度平均价格为3.58元，环比下跌4.70%，同比下跌28.46%。 蔬菜整体价格上涨 2025年10-12月，青岛市蔬菜整体价格走势与往年基本相同，季节性因素仍然是主导价格变动的主要因 素，受季节性和节日因素影响，蔬菜整体价格上涨。 供给量减少 生猪季度平均价格为7.09元,环比下跌3.70 ...

记者丨 边万莉 编辑丨周炎炎 2025年人民币兑美元汇率走出"先弱后强"的走势，从年初至4月初在7.30—7.35震荡偏弱，到4 月后迎来趋势性拐点由贬转升，年末离岸、在岸人民币汇率双双突破"7"这一关键心理关口， 分别创下2024年9月、2023年5月以来新高。 这一轮升值行情背后，是美元走弱、中国经济基本面稳健、年末结汇需求释放等多重因素的共 振助推，叠加出口韧性与人民币资产吸引力提升的合力支撑。 与此同时，"保持人民币汇率在 合理均衡水平上基本稳定"的政策基调已连续四年延续，央行2025年第四季度例会则进一步明 确防范汇率超调风险的导向。 展望2026年，在美联储降息预期、中国经济回升向好等利好因素与外部环境不确定性的交织作 用下，人民币汇率大概率不会出现单边走势，而是双向波动行情。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛认为，人民币汇率最终走势将主要取决于三大因素：中美两国 经济恢复的相对强度、美元利率与汇率的变化趋势、中国对外经贸关系的演进，其中，国内经 济恢复情况决定汇率双向波动的中枢方向。 多重因素共振助推破7 2025年以来，人民币对美元汇率呈现"先弱后强"的走势。从年初至4月初，人民币汇率震荡偏 弱， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, with both onshore and offshore RMB surpassing the "7.0" mark for the first time since October 2022, indicating a significant shift in currency dynamics [1][2] - The onshore RMB reached a high of 6.9915 against the US dollar, marking its highest level since May 2023, while the offshore RMB also broke the "7" threshold, reflecting a 4% and 5% increase respectively [1] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity and aligning social financing growth with economic growth, while also advocating for a flexible exchange rate to prevent excessive fluctuations [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the recent RMB appreciation may enhance the attractiveness of China's capital markets to foreign investors, potentially increasing foreign exchange gains [2] - Despite the RMB's rise, foreign trade enterprises are advised to avoid betting on a one-sided currency trend and to utilize financial instruments like options and futures to manage exchange rate risks [2]

来源：尧望后势 近期，涨价链再度成为资本市场上的一条重要线索。从我们跟踪的高频价格数据来看，近期的涨价链主 要集中在有色、石油石化、部分化工品、航运、存储、部分农产品等，可以概括为以下四条线索： 今年以来，随着海外流动性宽松，国内PPI触底回升、"反内卷"政策加持、AI资本开支和储能景气持续 向实物需求传导，资源品涨价线索不断涌现，主要集中在：半导体（存储、晶圆）、新能源相关（锂、 钴、锂电正极材料、多晶硅等）、贵金属（金、银）、稀土（镨、钕）、化工（硫化工、农药、氟化 工、磷化工、化肥等）、航运等。 全球流动性宽松与地缘避险情绪共振驱动的有色价格上涨：包括银、黄金； AI与新能源产业趋势向实物消耗传导：包括存储、锂电（氢氧化锂、碳酸锂）； 供给扰动（美军封锁委内瑞拉石油）与地缘担忧（中东局势升级）推动的石油价格上涨：包括石 油焦、原油、棕榈油； 季节性因素推升供需错配：包括年末终端开工率下降导致供给趋紧的化工品（乙二醇、化纤）、 节前赶工出货潮、年末"抢出口"以及冬季用电量增加带动的运价指数（SCFI、CCSFI、CCFI）、 节前终端市场备货提振的农产品（肉鸡、豆粕等）。 | 品种 | 类别 | | 区间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the RMB exchange rate has been appreciating continuously since late November, recently reaching new highs for the year, with the offshore RMB rate surpassing 7.0, accelerating in its appreciation [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Exchange Rate Movement** - The offshore RMB exchange rate broke the 7.0 mark on December 25, reaching its highest level since September 2024, while the onshore RMB rate is also close to the 7.0 threshold, marking its highest since May 2023 [1]. - **Drivers of Appreciation** - The depreciation of the US dollar and seasonal factors are identified as direct drivers of the current appreciation of the RMB. However, monetary authorities have moderately restrained the pace of this appreciation [1]. - **Market Expectations** - Overall, the year-end appreciation of the RMB is not unexpected, although the extent of the appreciation has slightly exceeded expectations. The primary factors contributing to this rapid appreciation in the short term are the significant decline of the US dollar and the resonance of seasonal factors [1].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-25 煤油价格延续震荡整理，聚烯烃基差⼤ 幅⾛弱 原油和煤炭价格本周三延续弱势震荡格局。圣诞前夕原油市场成交量 低迷，油价维持窄幅震荡走势。美国仍在委内瑞拉海岸附近追踪第三艘油 轮。俄罗斯原油海上浮仓库存持续累积，较8月底增幅达48%；美国针对委 内瑞拉的制裁行动，可能引发俄罗斯原油运输商与买家的担忧。环渤海港 口动力煤市场仍维持偏弱走势。临近年底，产地完成年度任务后，停减产 煤矿增加，市场供应略有收缩；下游用户采购积极性一般，刚需跟进为 主，终端库存维持高位。现在处于"迎峰度冬"中期，关注寒潮来临时煤 炭能否因此企稳。 板块逻辑： 周三日盘前期弱势的烯烃品种出现集体反弹，这可能是市场对后市预 期的改变，也可能是对冲头寸获利平仓所致。从EG产业链本身看，有我国 华南72万吨装置下个月停车计划，也有伊朗50万吨装置当前顺利重启的消 息，净检修量占全球产能比例约为0.39%。EG的反弹可能是一种底部震 荡，尚不构成反转的充分条件。聚烯烃期货反弹，现货则以下跌为主，尤 其是PE各型号现货均环比走弱，导致两品种的基差再度走 ...

尽管市场交投清淡，黄金价格仍在周一突破历史新高，凸显潜在趋势的强劲势头。 当前季节性因素构成支撑，但年末流动性迅速萎缩，市场焦点现已转向：多头能否将涨幅延续至年末最后几个交易日——或是获利了结将开始限制上行空 间。 过去50年，黄金在12月的季节表现 截至Simpson撰稿时，12月黄金已上涨逾4.5%，而年内实际交易时间仅剩一周左右，多头或许需要保持谨慎。 不过，Simpson认为，仅从价格走势来看，目前并无即将见顶的迹象。相对强弱指数（14日，RSI (14)）刚刚步入超买区间——这恰恰是健康上行趋势中该指 数应处的位置。 季节性因素也构成支撑：12月的日均回报率显示，黄金在圣诞前后的交易时段明显倾向于上涨，且上涨的概率相对较高。这为年末获利了结开始前的进一步 上行打开了空间。除此之外，整体前景仍具建设性，任何回调都可能遭遇强劲的逢低买入兴趣。 ............................... - - - - - - .......................... ....... ... Gold tends to perform well in the second half of ...

Let's take a closer look now at these energy markets. Joining us is Karly Garner, who's the senior commodity strategist broker at Cari Trading. Thank you so much for for joining me today.Uh look, where do you see things heading in 2026. Obviously, it's not been a great year uh for prices. Uh we've had a lot of the geopolitical risk premium being priced in right now.Plenty of moving parts. What's your outlook. >> Well, you're right.There's a lot of moving parts and it's never boring in oil, right. Uh the one ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The S&P 500 index has an average annual total return of +13% since 1945, with 79% of years yielding positive returns, indicating a high probability of profit in the stock market [4][5] - Investing $1,000 in the S&P 500 index in 1945 would result in approximately $7.3 million today, highlighting the power of compounding and the impact of seasonal investment strategies [5][6] - U.S. household net worth increased by 52% from $110 trillion at the end of 2019 to $167 trillion by mid-2023, indicating significant wealth accumulation [5] - The top 10% of U.S. households own 87% of the stock market, while the top 1% own 50%, reflecting wealth concentration in the equity market [6] - Since March 2009, the Nasdaq 100 index has seen a total return of +2,753%, with notable investment opportunities arising during market downturns [7] - The market capitalization of the seven largest tech companies has grown from $1 trillion to $21 trillion over the past thirteen years, indicating robust growth in the tech sector [7] - The average age of first-time homebuyers in the U.S. has reached a record high of 40 years, compared to 31 years in 1999, suggesting changing demographics in the housing market [12] Summary by Sections Historical Performance - The S&P 500 index has consistently provided positive returns, with a total return of +17% year-to-date, placing it in the 56th percentile historically [4] - The significant difference in returns based on investment timing emphasizes the importance of market timing and seasonal factors [5] Wealth Distribution - U.S. households, through direct ownership or funds, hold over 50% of the U.S. stock market, contrasting sharply with hedge funds that hold only 2% [5] - The concentration of stock ownership among the wealthiest households raises questions about market dynamics and accessibility for average investors [6] Economic Indicators - The increase in U.S. household net worth and the growth of the tech sector reflect broader economic trends and potential investment opportunities [5][7] - The projected growth of U.S. nominal GDP by nearly 280% by 2050 indicates a long-term positive outlook for the economy [11]