Q&A 近期地缘冲突（中东冲突/美伊冲突）对国内债市的影响路径如何评估，10 年 国债利率在当前点位下的下行空间应如何判断？ 地缘风险上升通常会压低风险偏好，带来风险资产下跌、避险资产上涨，并推 动原油上涨与债券利率下行。从当日行情观察，利率在早盘调整后再度顺利下 行，反映了风险偏好下行的定价。然而，对国内利率而言，制约在于长端利率 本身的下行空间偏有限。以 10 年国债为例，当前利率略低于 1.8。在 10 年国 债低于 1.8 的阶段，历史上央行曾对过低的长端利率给予较高关注；且在 2025 年 10 年国债低于 1.8 的情形，主要发生在市场对债市非常乐观的环境中。 若 10 年国债在略低于 1.8 的基础上进一步"有效低于 1.8"并向 1.7 交易，通 3 月债市策略展望 20260302 摘要 当前 10 年国债利率略低于 1.8%，历史上该水平下央行曾高度关注，若 进一步有效低于 1.8%并向 1.7%交易，需更持续利多支撑，地缘风险或 推动利率下探，但胜率与必要性有限，更可持续驱动在于宽松或降息预 期。 若国内政策面缺乏支持，地缘风险发酵下 10 年国债利率低点可能在 1.75%左右；若两会前 ...

转自：新华财经 国贸期货：贵金属牛市逻辑仍旧坚固 建议以逢低多配为主 恒泰期货：地缘局势、宽松预期和弱美元提振贵金属 广发期货：警惕黄金大涨之后多头集中止盈 法国兴业银行（SociétéGénérale）：黄金将继续在全球外汇储备中发挥重要作用 华侨银行（OCBC）：金价上行风险正在重建 【机构观点分析】 国贸期货研报指出，短期市场或仍需继续消化特朗普新关税政策以及美伊紧张局势的持续发酵带来的不 确定性，贵金属价格有望维持偏强运行，直至局势出现新的进展或美国对伊朗的军事行动落地。中长期 来看，贵金属牛市的底层逻辑仍旧坚固，建议投资者以逢低多配为主。黄金将继续凭借货币与避险属 性，在美国债务扩张持续削弱美元信用、地缘政治局势复杂及流动性宽松延续等多重因素共振下，全球 央行／机构／居民的配置需求有望延续，驱动价格重心继续上移。 恒泰期货25日早盘观点认为，中东地区局势持续紧张，美军在相关区域军事部署加剧了市场对潜在冲突 的担忧，弹性避险需求增强了黄金的战略配置价值。同时，市场对美联储降息预期持续发酵，"宽松预 期+弱美元"修复通道延续，提振了以美元计价的贵金属价格。节后内盘贵金属价格或呈现跟随行情， 高波动率背景 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 黄金观点：高位消化波动，结构性支撑依然稳固。 逻辑：逻辑上看，近期黄金回调过程中，ETF仅出现约20吨的小幅流 出，且更接近阶段性止盈而非趋势性撤离，前期流出压力基本释放， 后续具备重新累积的条件。官方部门需求仍是中长期核心支撑，中国 央行1月继续增持黄金，延续对储备结构安全性的配置取向。政策层 面，虽然短期仍需观察通胀与就业数据对利率路径的影响，但2026年 降息预期并未被证伪，新一届美联储主席人选落地后，货币政策独立 性与美元信用问题重新进入定价框架，强化"去信用化交易"叙事。 地缘层面，美国外交与安全政策不确定性仍高，避险资产配置需求难 以消退。（以上新闻及数据均来自彭博终端） 展望：若宏观数据未显著逆转宽松预期，黄金仍具备震荡偏强基础。 白银观点：跟随金价调整，弹性逻辑尚未破坏。 逻辑： 白银在前期快速拉升后随黄金进入高位整理阶段，短期波动 更多反映风险偏好回落与多头获利了结。 展望：从中期看，白银对金价的跟随属性仍在，而其自身的弹性优势 尚未被系统性削弱。在金价维持高位运行的前提下，白银仍具备相对 收益空间，但需要警惕高波动环境下的阶段性回撤风险。若后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock and bond markets are experiencing a rare simultaneous rise, indicating a shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose over 1%, with many individual stocks showing positive performance [1]. - The 10-year government bond yield briefly dipped below the critical 1.80% level, which is seen as a significant psychological and technical benchmark [3]. - The overall bond market is showing a divergence, with government bonds performing well while credit bonds and interbank certificates of deposit are underperforming [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The bond market's positive sentiment is attributed to the actions of the central bank, which injected 38 billion yuan into the banking system through open market operations [5][7]. - The average weighted interest rate for short-term funds in the interbank market is reported at 1.26%, indicating a lower cost of funds, which encourages bond purchases [6]. - Fund companies are the primary buyers in the bond market, while insurance institutions are the main sellers, creating a balanced market dynamic [8][11]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The current market environment reflects a shift towards safer assets, as the appeal of stocks and commodities diminishes, leading to increased investment in government bonds [10][12]. - The cautious approach of public funds is evident, with a decrease in the duration of bond holdings, indicating a preference for stability over aggressive trading [11]. - The upcoming issuance of government bonds in February may create supply pressure, potentially limiting the downward movement of yields [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold price oscillated and rebounded due to a political "black swan" event in the UK and active trading in the Japanese morning session. The premium of Shanghai Gold converged, and short - term volatility was high. It has not returned to the upward trend, so cautious operation is recommended. [4] - Silver price rose significantly again due to increased risk appetite. The premium of Shanghai Silver converged, and the price remained highly volatile without returning to the upward channel, also suggesting cautious operation. [5] - With the approaching mid - term elections, there is continuous turmoil and loose policies, high risk appetite, which supports gold and silver prices. However, the downward risks also increase. [10][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The UK political "black swan" event occurred. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields mostly fell, the US dollar index dropped, and COMEX gold futures rose 2.10% to $5084.20 per ounce. The basis was - 4.08, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 104,052 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below it. The main net position was long, and the long position increased. [4] - **Silver**: Risk appetite increased, and the silver price rose significantly again. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields mostly fell, the US dollar index dropped, and COMEX silver futures rose 8.00% to $83.05 per ounce. The basis was - 1123, indicating the spot was at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 62,559 kilograms to 349,900 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below it. The main net position was long, and the long position increased. [5][6] 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: Today, pay attention to the US December retail sales and import price index, as well as the speeches of Fed officials. The political "black swan" in the UK and active trading in the Japanese morning session led to a stronger Asian stock market and a rebound in the gold price. The premium of Shanghai Gold converged to about - 1.8 yuan/gram, and the sentiment converged. CME and SHFE raised margins again, with high short - term volatility and the price not yet back in the upward trend, so cautious operation is needed. [4] - **Silver**: The political "black swan" in the UK and active trading in the Japanese morning session led to a stronger Asian stock market and a significant rebound in the silver price, which declined in the morning. The premium of Shanghai Silver converged, and the domestic sentiment cooled rapidly. The silver price remained highly volatile without returning to the upward channel, so cautious operation is recommended. [5] 3.3 Today's Focus - Time TBD: The International Energy Week opens in London, UK (February 10 - 12) [17] - 21:30: US December retail sales and import price index [4][17] - 23:00: The New York Fed releases the Q4 2025 household debt and credit report [17] - Next day 01:00: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack talks about the banking industry and economic outlook [17] - Next day 02:00: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks at an asset management forum [17] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and loose policies, high risk appetite, which makes it difficult for the gold price to fall. However, as all metals are strengthening, the downward risk of the gold price also increases. [10] - **Silver**: With the approaching mid - term elections, there is continuous turmoil and loose policies, high risk appetite, and there is still macro - level support. The sentiment of bullishness and investment is high. Although the sentiment has cooled slightly under regulatory pressure, the price has not declined. [14] 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Gold increased by 3.32% to 149,691 on February 9 compared with February 8, the short position decreased by 13.49% to 32,638, and the net position increased by 9.24% to 117,053. [33] - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Silver increased by 1.25% to 301,257 on February 9 compared with February 6, the short position increased by 2.04% to 203,025, and the net position decreased by 0.35% to 98,232. [35]

Group 1 - The bond market showed a mixed trend on Monday, with long-term rates declining and 30-year treasury futures rising, while 10-year and 5-year treasury futures experienced varying degrees of decline [1] - By the end of the trading session, the TL main contract rose by 0.18%, while the T main contract fell by 0.03%, and the TF main contract decreased by 0.02%, with the TS main contract remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - The total open interest in treasury futures significantly decreased, with a reduction of 7,325 contracts, bringing the total open interest down to 740,736 contracts [1] Group 2 - The changes in the top 20 positions for each treasury futures variety varied from the previous trading day, indicating differing market sentiments [3] - Specifically, the TL long positions decreased by 1,950 contracts, while the T long positions increased by 2,187 contracts, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [3] - The overall view suggests that the treasury futures market is expected to continue a high-level consolidation trend, driven by ongoing expectations of monetary easing [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations and global trade uncertainties increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan (+0.47%); M2 year - on - year growth was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.25%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% (-1.60%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.61, up 0.49 (+0.50%); The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9411, down 0.011 (-0.16%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.01%); DR007 was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.40%); R007 was 1.68, up 0.17 (+11.44%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, unchanged (+0.00%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, unchanged (+0.00%) [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury and Treasury Futures Market The report provides multiple charts showing the trends and proportions related to the treasury futures market, including the closing prices, price changes, precipitation of funds, positions, and net positions of various treasury futures varieties [13][14][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents charts on the inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, local government bond issuance, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trends, and the yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) [24][27][29]. IV. Spread Overview The report shows the trends of inter - period spreads of various treasury futures varieties and the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads through multiple charts [34][35][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Futures The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the two - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [43][45]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Futures The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the five - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [47][55]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Futures The report offers charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the ten - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Futures The report contains charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [62][67]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase rate declines, the prices of treasury futures oscillate [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently driven by risk sentiment, with gold prices surging towards the $5600 mark due to a combination of dovish Federal Reserve policies and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][3]. Group 1: Positive Factors - President Trump has threatened to intensify military action against Iran, leading to heightened market risk aversion and a significant influx of capital into gold [3]. - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, with a dovish interpretation of the decision, including two board members supporting a rate cut. This has reduced short-term uncertainty and reinforced expectations for monetary easing [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price of gold has entered an accelerated upward channel after breaking historical highs, with all traditional resistance levels surpassed, indicating a typical "momentum-driven" market state [5]. - Current historical high price range for gold is between $5550 and $5600 per ounce [6]. Group 3: Resistance and Support Levels - There is no clear historical resistance above the current price, with the next psychological level at $5700, followed by an institutional forecast of $5850 [7]. - Immediate support is at $5500, which is the recent breakout level, while key trend support is at $5330, based on short-term pivot points [8]. - The critical support level to maintain a bullish market structure is at $5000 [9]. Group 4: Market Signals - All moving averages are in a steep bullish arrangement, indicating an extreme upward trend, but the market is severely overbought with high volatility indicators. This rapid price increase is unlikely to be sustainable, suggesting potential for significant corrections or volatility [10].

Group 1 - International gold prices continued their strong upward trend, breaking the $5200 mark and reaching a historical high of $5201.97 per ounce, with a daily increase of approximately 0.4% [1] - The surge in gold prices is driven by multiple negative factors, including the U.S. dollar index falling to a four-year low and President Trump's laissez-faire attitude towards a weaker dollar, which has severely undermined market confidence in traditional fiat currencies [1] - The U.S. consumer confidence index for January plummeted to an 11.5-year low, reflecting a bleak economic outlook, while Trump's announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair nomination and expectations of further interest rate cuts have triggered strong easing expectations [1] Group 2 - President Trump announced plans to impose new tariffs on South Korean imports, alongside the risk of a government shutdown before the January 30 funding deadline, which has heightened market anxiety [2] - In terms of geopolitical tensions, Trump stated that a fleet is heading towards Iran, with related preparations expected to be completed within two weeks, while Iran has implemented real-time monitoring of the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia has refused to allow its airspace for strikes against Iran, escalating tensions in the Middle East [2] - Despite global stock markets reaching new highs for five consecutive days, the combination of weak economic data, policy uncertainty, and ongoing geopolitical risks has led to a significant influx of safe-haven funds into gold [2] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced adjustments to margin requirements for certain silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts, with new margin ratios for some silver contracts raised to approximately 11% of nominal value, effective after the close on the 28th, although these changes do not affect gold contracts [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market has complex trends with different varieties showing various performances such as oscillation, strength, or weakness, and is affected by multiple factors including geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Metals - **Zinc (ZN2603)**: Oscillation with a bullish bias, overseas smelting cost increase drives the price up, hold cross - market reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Methanol (MA2605)**: Oscillation with a bullish bias, pay attention to geopolitical changes and take profit on long positions when the situation eases [3]. - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Weak adjustment, Vale's accident but the price is still under pressure, short positions can be set up around 800 [3]. - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Short - term bullish, may try to break through 9300 [3]. - **Gold (AU2604)**: Bullish oscillation, take profit on long positions at high prices, buy out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Copper (CU2603)**: CL premium narrows and spot discount widens, take profit on long positions at high prices, and focus on the 99000 - 100000 support level [3]. - **Aluminum (AL2603)**: The dollar drops to a four - year low, driving the price up strongly. Wait for a pullback to set up long positions in the 23500 - 25000 range [3]. - **Tin (SN2603)**: The price rises at the end of the session but spot trading is cold. Be cautious in the short - term, consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [3]. - **Nickel (NI2602)**: The driving force is limited after the news is digested, conduct range - bound trading in the 140000 - 150000 range [3]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2603)**: Oscillation adjustment, the main contract ranges from 14200 to 15000 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon (Si2605)**: Spot price stabilizes, futures price rises and then falls, the main contract ranges from 8200 to 9200 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **PX (PX2603)**: High - level oscillation before the holiday, short - term range is 7100 - 7500, bullish in the medium - term [3]. - **PTA (TA2605)**: High - level oscillation before the holiday, short - term range is 5100 - 5400, bullish in the medium - term [3]. - **Short - fiber (PF2603)**: Follow raw materials, do positive arbitrage in TA5 - 9, shrink processing fees at high levels [3]. - **Bottle Chips (PR2603)**: Multiple devices are under maintenance and factories are destocking, processing fees are supported, ranging from 400 - 550 yuan/ton [3]. - **Ethanol (EG2605)**: Positive arbitrage opportunity, sell out - of - the - money put options EG2605 - P - 3800 at high prices [3]. - **Pure Benzene (BZ2603)**: Supply - demand improves but high inventory suppresses, wait and see, shrink the EB - BZ spread at high prices [3]. - **Styrene (EB2603)**: Supply - demand weakens and high valuation pressures the price, wait and see, shrink the EB - BZ spread at high prices [3]. - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Trading volume decreases, wait and see [3]. - **PP (PP2605)**: Supply - demand is weak, price oscillates, wait and see [3]. - **Caustic Soda (SH2603)**: Supply pressure is high, price center moves down, short on rebounds [3]. - **PVC (V2605)**: May enter wide - range oscillation, short - term low - buying, wait and see on short positions [3]. - **Urea (UR2605)**: Take profit on long positions, short at high prices [3]. - **Soda Ash (SA2605)**: Oscillation is weak, wait and see [3]. - **Glass (FG2605)**: Supply - demand is weak, pay attention to production lines and inventory changes, wait and see [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Strong bottom support, range oscillation [3]. - **Live Pigs (FH2603)**: Supply - demand game intensifies, range oscillation [3]. - **Corn (C2603)**: Oscillation [3]. - **Sugar (SR2605)**: Spot trading slows down, range - bound with a bearish bias [3]. - **Cotton (CF2605)**: Spot is stable, pay attention to the support at 14400 - 14500 [3]. - **Eggs (JD2603)**: Spot is stable with a bullish bias, range oscillation [3]. - **Apples (AP2605)**: Demand increases, participate in the rebound with a light position [3]. - **Red Dates (CJ2605)**: Stocking is nearing the end, range - bound with a bearish bias [3]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures (IF2603, IC2603, IH2603, IM2603)**: Broad - based indexes oscillate in a range, theme industries rise structurally, control portfolio risks and reduce long positions [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures (T2603, TF2603, TS2603, TL2603)**: The bond market is in an oscillatory pattern, conduct range - bound operations, and pay attention to positive arbitrage in TL and T contracts [3]. - **Precious Metals Futures (AU2604, AG2604, PT2606, PD2606)**: The price trends of precious metals diverge, take profit on gold long positions at high prices, and be careful with silver and platinum [3]. Building Materials - **Steel (RB2605)**: Steel price is stable, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widens, hold long positions on the spread [3]. - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Coal prices in Shanxi loosen, Mongolian coal price falls from a high, take a bearish view on single - side trading, do long coking coal and short coke [3]. - **Coke (J2605)**: Coke price increase is hard to implement, take a bearish view on single - side trading, do long coking coal and short coke [3]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon (SF603)**: No major supply - demand contradiction, cost may rise, wide - range oscillation [3]. - **Manganese Silicon (SM605)**: Ore replenishment is nearly over, supply - demand improves, wide - range oscillation [3]. - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Local alumina plants have frequent overhauls, sell out - of - the - money put options at the price lower limit and short at high prices [3].