在贸易与地缘政治风险交织的背景下，黄金短线或仍维持震荡格局。投资者应密切关注中美双方的后续 政策动向及美联储官员的讲话，控制仓位、理性应对市场波动。若避险情绪继续升温，金价或将保持强 势运行。 当前全球金融市场的关注点集中在中美贸易关系的走向以及美联储的政策取向上。随着美国政府关门进 入第十天、经济数据推迟发布，市场不确定性进一步上升。总体来看，避险需求与宽松预期仍将为黄金 提供支撑，短期高位震荡或成为主旋律。 周五，特朗普在社交平台上表示，美国将自11月1日起对全部中国进口商品征收100%关税，引发投资者 普遍担忧。与此同时，中国方面宣布强化稀土及相关技术出口的许可制度，被视为对美方措施的直接回 应。消息公布后，市场迅速进入避险模式。美股承压下行，投资资金涌向黄金与美国国债等避险资产。 美国10年期国债收益率下探至4.05%附近，黄金价格则继续上行，凸显市场对风险的高度敏感。 贸易冲突升级令美元指数持续承压。周五盘中，美元指数（DXY）一度跌破99关口，创下阶段性新 低。市场普遍认为，若贸易摩擦持续，美国经济可能面临更大压力，美联储或将被迫提前放松货币政 策。根据芝商所（CME）"美联储观察工具"显示，投资 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：海外银刷新历史最高后回落，获利了结推动金价回落；美国三大股指小 幅收跌，欧洲三大股指涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨1.55 个基点报4.136%；美元指数涨0.55%报99.40，离岸人民币对美元升值报7.1380； COMEX黄金期货跌1.95%报3991.10美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注美国10月消费者信心、9月政府预算、美联储委员密集讲话、欧 盟财长会议。海外银刷新历史最高后回落，风险偏好回落，金价冲高回落。沪金溢 价迅速扩大至-8元/克。避险情绪和宽松预期仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both gold and silver is cautiously bullish [8][9] Core Viewpoints - The market tends to price in consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. With the expectation of monetary easing and risk - aversion sentiment due to the potential U.S. federal government shutdown, gold prices are expected to remain in a relatively strong oscillation. The Au2512 contract may oscillate between 860 yuan/gram and 880 yuan/gram [8] - Silver shares the same macro - level logic as gold. The easing cycle promotes the recovery of silver's industrial demand, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10500 yuan/kilogram and 11500 yuan/kilogram [10] - The strategy for arbitrage is to short the gold - silver ratio at high levels, and the option strategy is to postpone [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In terms of interest rates, Fed's Williams supported the interest rate cut at the last meeting due to signs of labor market weakness, and estimated the real neutral interest rate at 0.75%. Musalem is open to future rate cuts but advocates caution, expecting inflation to remain high in the next two to three quarters [1] - Regarding tariffs, U.S. President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all movies made outside the U.S. and large tariffs on countries that do not manufacture furniture in the U.S. to boost domestic industries [1] - On the fiscal front, U.S. Senate Republicans will vote again on Tuesday on a bill to avoid a government shutdown, while Democrats rejected the short - term temporary spending bill [1] - Geopolitically, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a bilateral meeting. Trump said Netanyahu accepted his Gaza peace plan, which could end the war immediately if both sides agree, and requires Gaza to be temporarily governed by a non - political Palestinian technical bureaucracy [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 857.70 yuan/gram and closed at 866.52 yuan/gram, a 1.22% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 866.88 yuan/gram and closed at 870.42 yuan/gram, a 0.45% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 10651.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10939.00 yuan/kilogram, a 2.89% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1527083 lots, and the open interest was 508967 lots. In the night session, it opened at 10883 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10907 yuan/kilogram, a 0.29% decrease from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 29, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.137%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.521%, up 0.41 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 86 lots and short positions decreased by 108 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 471378 lots, a 4.54% decrease from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2294694 lots, a 45.70% increase from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,005.72 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,521 tons, an increase of 159 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On September 29, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 13.84 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1233.70 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 79.21, a 1.93% decrease from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 83.31, a 0.23% decrease from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On September 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 61916 kilograms, a 5.38% decrease from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 538718 kilograms, a 43.68% increase from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 32380 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 12450 kilograms [7]

Core Viewpoint - The New York gold price has reached a historic high of over $3,800, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On September 23, the most actively traded December 2025 gold futures closed at $3,796.9 per ounce, up $15.7 from the previous trading day, marking a 0.42% increase [2]. - The settlement price was reported at $3,815.7, with an intraday high of $3,824.6 [2]. - Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech not providing a clear interest rate cut path, the market interpreted his comments as supportive of further monetary easing, which is expected to sustain the upward trend in gold prices [2][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Concerns over the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have intensified, contributing to increased safe-haven buying of gold [2]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts remain optimistic about the short-term outlook for precious metals, with Jefferies' global equity strategy head, Christopher Wood, suggesting that there is still more room for gold prices to rise in the coming months [3]. - Independent analyst Ross Norman indicated that the dovish views of the new Federal Reserve governor, Milan, are likely to heighten expectations for further rate cuts, which would be favorable for gold prices [3]. Group 4: Performance of Other Precious Metals - The strong rise in gold prices has also positively impacted the performance of other precious metals [4]. - Although December silver futures closed slightly down by 5 cents at $44.265 per ounce, it reached a new high of $44.77, the highest since May 2011, during the trading session [4]. - Platinum and palladium prices in the London market also saw significant increases of over 4% on the same day [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that international gold prices have reached a historical high for the 36th time this year, with gold prices surging nearly 43% in both spot and COMEX futures, significantly outperforming most other assets [2][3] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to a combination of heightened risk aversion and expectations of monetary easing, leading to a growing interest in gold investments [2][3] Group 2 - The article raises questions about the sustainability of the current gold price surge and whether it is still a good time for investors to increase their positions in gold [3] - Experts from various financial institutions are invited to analyze the driving forces behind the gold market, future trends, and strategies to mitigate potential risks [3]

周一晚间，美元指数收跌。宽松预期与避险情绪共同推动贵金属价格强势攀升。但需要注意的是美联储 多位官员发表偏鹰派言论，博斯蒂克、穆萨莱姆及哈玛克均表示应对降息保持谨慎，认为进一步宽松的 空间有限，甚至强调若通胀风险上升将不支持继续降息，目前仅有米兰认为中性利率可能接近2%水 平。这些表态一定程度上削弱了市场对短期继续大幅降息的预期，可能令实际利率和美元短期承压有 限，从而对金银价格上行构成抑制。 不过，法国等多国宣布正式承认巴勒斯坦国，或加剧中东局势不确定性，潜在避险情绪仍可能为贵金属 价格提供部分支撑。 【交易思路】 摘要周一，因投资者重新思考美联储的降息和未来计划，现货黄金日内大涨超60美元，并将历史新高刷 新至3740美元上方，最终收涨1.67%，收报3746.63美元/盎司；现货白银续创2011年5月来新高，最终收 涨2.38%，报44.02美元/盎司。 【行情回顾】 周一，因投资者重新思考美联储的降息和未来计划，现货黄金日内大涨超60美元，并将历史新高刷新至 3740美元上方，最终收涨1.67%，收报3746.63美元/盎司；现货白银续创2011年5月来新高，最终收涨 2.38%，报44.02美元/盎 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: The Fed announced an expected rate cut but hinted at no rush for rapid cuts in the coming months. The US initial jobless claims had the largest decline in nearly four years, the US dollar index continued to rebound, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically: China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth were all lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow. However, short - term external risk uncertainty decreased and domestic easing expectations increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. [2] - For assets: The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with cautious short - term long positions. Treasury bonds will fluctuate in the short term, and it's advisable to watch cautiously. In the commodity sector, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical products will fluctuate in the short term, with cautious short - term watching; precious metals will fluctuate strongly at high levels in the short term, with cautious short - term long positions. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The Fed's rate cut, large decline in initial jobless claims led to the US dollar index rebound and increased global risk appetite. Domestically: Consumption, investment, and industrial added - value growth were lower than expected, with domestic demand slowing. Policies like the measures to expand service consumption were introduced. The trading logic focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, with short - term upward drivers strengthening. [2] - Asset Recommendations: Stock index - short - term fluctuation, cautious short - term long; Treasury bonds - short - term fluctuation, cautious watching; black - short - term fluctuation, cautious watching; non - ferrous - short - term fluctuation, cautious watching; energy - chemical - short - term fluctuation, cautious watching; precious metals - short - term high - level strong fluctuation, cautious long. [2] Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors like humanoid robots, automobiles, and biomedicine. Fundamentals showed slow domestic demand. Policies aimed at expanding service consumption were introduced. Risk appetite increased. The trading logic focuses on policies and easing expectations, with short - term upward drivers strengthening. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] Black Metal - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly. The Sino - US leaders' call and national meeting boosted market sentiment. Demand improved slightly but varied by variety, and supply decreased slightly. There were rumors of production restrictions in Tangshan. The market is likely to fluctuate in the short term. [4] - **Iron Ore**: Futures and spot prices rebounded. Steel mill profits narrowed but didn't trigger production cuts, and iron ore inventory increased due to pre - holiday restocking. Supply remained high, and port inventory increased slightly. The price will fluctuate in the short term. [4][5] - **Glass**: The glass market had stable supply and slightly improved demand but limited increments. With repeated policy sentiment, it will fluctuate in the short term. [6] Non - Ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed's rate cut and positive Sino - US - Spanish economic and trade talks boosted market sentiment. However, copper demand may decline marginally, and the US economic slowdown restricts upward space. [7] - **Aluminum**: The price was flat. The recent increase was due to the Fed's rate cut and copper price spill - over, but the fundamentals are weak with increasing inventory. [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Spot prices were flat, and futures prices declined slightly. Supply increased slightly. Silicon ferrosilicon prices were supported by cost, and the market will continue to fluctuate. [8] - **Soda Ash**: The market had high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the short term, supply and demand will increase with the arrival of the peak season and upstream maintenance. In the long term, supply - side contradictions will drag down the price. [8] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Waste aluminum supply is tight, and demand is weak in the off - season. The price will fluctuate strongly in the short term but with limited upward space. [9] - **Tin**: Supply - side开工率 was low but expected to recover. Demand was weak. Inventory decreased significantly this week. The price will fluctuate in the short term with limited upward space. [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Production reached a new high, and inventory decreased slightly. Supply and demand increased, and the market will fluctuate strongly with attention to the upper pressure range. [10] - **Industrial Silicon**: Production increased, and inventory increased slightly. Supply and demand increased, and the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term. [10] - **Polysilicon**: The downstream prices changed, and inventory decreased slightly. There were rumors of storage and capacity reduction policies. It's easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it's advisable to go long at low prices. [11] Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The Fed's rate cut, good US inventory data, and geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Russia provided support to oil prices. The price will fluctuate with support in the short term. [12] - **Asphalt**: The price followed the stable oil price with limited upward space. Basis is decreasing, and inventory is not significantly reduced. It's necessary to pay attention to the follow - up increase with oil prices. [13][14] - **PX**: It will fluctuate weakly with support. The PXN spread decreased, and the polyester market declined. [8] - **PTA**: Downstream demand was weak, and inventory increased. However, low processing fees led to more maintenance plans, and there is support at the previous low. The price may decline in the short term. [8] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory increased, and demand was weak. The price will continue to fluctuate. [15] - **Short - Fibre**: It adjusted with the polyester sector. Terminal orders increased seasonally, and inventory increased slightly. The upward space is limited. [15] - **Methanol**: Supply was in excess, and high inventory pressured the price. [15] - **PP**: Production decreased due to maintenance, and downstream demand improved. However, supply remained loose, and the price will fluctuate weakly in the short term. [15] - **LLDPE**: Supply increased, and demand was weak. With low inventory and stable oil prices, the price will fluctuate weakly. [16] - **Urea**: Supply was strong, demand was weak, and inventory was divided. The market is under pressure in the short term. [16][17] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: At the beginning of the US soybean listing, there were expectations of a decrease in the USDA - estimated yield. However, new harvests and lack of Chinese orders will increase downward pressure. [17] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic short - term supply was in excess. It's expected to stabilize in late September and October due to supply contraction in the fourth quarter and potential adjustment of the USDA - estimated yield. Rapeseed meal follows the soybean meal market. [17] - **Oils and Fats**: International oil and oilseed prices weakened. Palm oil production may recover, and exports decreased. Domestic palm oil demand weakened, and inventory increased. Soybean oil supply was sufficient, and consumption support was limited. The market for rapeseed oil was cautious. The domestic oil market will fluctuate with downward pressure. [17] - **Corn**: The new corn in Northeast China was listed smoothly, and the price was stable. The price in North China continued to fall but at a slower pace. The price in the sales area was stable. There is an expectation of price decline during the concentrated listing period from mid - October to November. [17] - **Pork**: With pork purchases for storage and pre - holiday stocking, the pork price may have a phased stable rebound. [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the Fed announced an expected interest rate cut, the US initial jobless claims dropped significantly, the US dollar index and Treasury yields rebounded, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically, economic data was lower than expected, but short - term external risk uncertainty decreased and domestic easing expectations increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening [3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks and precious metals may be short - term bullish, while bonds, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals are expected to be short - term volatile [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Global Situation**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected but hinted at no rapid cuts in the coming months. The US initial jobless claims had the largest decline in nearly four years, causing the US dollar index and Treasury yields to rebound sharply, and global risk appetite to increase [3]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added value growth were all lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow down. The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption. Domestic risk appetite increased due to reduced external risk uncertainty and increased domestic easing expectations [3]. - **Asset Suggestions**: Stocks are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a short - term cautious long - position recommendation. Bonds are also expected to be volatile, with a cautious wait - and - see approach. Among commodities, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical sectors are expected to be volatile, with a cautious wait - and - see stance; precious metals are expected to be strongly volatile at high levels, with a cautious long - position recommendation [3]. Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The domestic stock market declined due to the drag of precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and securities sectors. - **Fundamentals**: China's economic data was lower than expected, with domestic demand slowing down. Policy support was provided by measures to expand service consumption. Short - term external risk uncertainty decreased, and domestic risk appetite increased. The market is focused on domestic incremental policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. Short - term cautious long - position is recommended [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets rose and then fell on Thursday, with low trading volume. After the Fed's interest rate cut, some funds left the market. Demand improved slightly but varied by variety, with rebar consumption rising and hot - rolled coil consumption falling. Supply decreased slightly. The market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore declined slightly on Thursday. There were rumors of production restrictions, and the increase in molten iron production was limited. Supply remained high, and port inventories decreased slightly. The price is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Thursday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The supply of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the price of silicon iron was supported by electricity costs and other factors. The market is expected to be range - bound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash declined from a high on Thursday. Supply increased, and the pattern of oversupply remained. Demand was stable but weak. The price is expected to be bearish in the long - term, with short - term policy and news risks [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass declined from a high on Thursday. Supply was stable, and demand growth was limited. The market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed's interest rate cut in September boosted copper prices, along with tax policy impacts and a copper mine accident in Indonesia. However, the upside is limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [9]. - **Aluminum**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, aluminum prices fell but were supported above the 20 - day moving average. The recent price increase was due to interest rate cut expectations and the spill - over effect of copper price increases, but the fundamentals are weak, with increasing inventories and limited demand recovery [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and production costs are rising. Demand is weak due to the off - season. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term but with limited upside [10]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased significantly due to maintenance and tight ore supply, but it is expected to recover. Demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term but with upside pressure [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate declined on Thursday. Supply and demand both increased, and inventories decreased. The market is expected to be slightly bullish, with attention to the upper pressure range [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon declined on Thursday. With polysilicon and coking coal at high levels, it is expected to be slightly bullish [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon declined on Thursday. Spot prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells increased, and policy expectations remained strong. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: President Trump's remarks weakened market confidence in sanctions against Russia, and the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut on market sentiment was limited. The price is expected to be supported and range - bound, with market focus on sanctions and geopolitics [13]. - **Asphalt**: After a slight decline in oil prices, asphalt rebounded and stabilized. The upside is limited, and it may be range - bound at a low level due to potential inventory accumulation and falling oil prices [14]. - **PX**: The PX price was stable, and the previous positive factors were mostly priced in. The PXN spread decreased slightly, and it is expected to be range - bound, waiting for changes in PTA devices [14]. - **PTA**: Downstream开工率 remained at 91.4%, with limited terminal demand recovery. PTA processing fees were squeezed, and it is expected to be range - bound in the short term [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It remained stable and volatile, but downstream demand was weak. With potential new device production and limited export orders, it is expected to be weakly volatile [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: It followed the polyester sector and rebounded slightly. Terminal orders increased seasonally, but the upside is limited [15]. - **Methanol**: The port price declined, and the inventory increased. Although the fundamentals improved marginally, it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [15]. - **PP**: The market price declined. Production decreased due to maintenance, and downstream demand improved, but supply remained abundant. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT November soybean contract declined. US soybean export sales were better than expected, but crop ratings were falling, and the final yield estimate may be adjusted downward. The market maintains a cautious optimistic attitude [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. It is expected that the supply - demand situation will improve in late September and October, and the price center of gravity may rise [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The CBOT November soybean oil contract declined. Domestic soybean crushing is high, and soybean oil supply is sufficient. Canola oil inventories are decreasing, and the market sentiment is strong during the seasonal sales peak [18]. - **Palm Oil**: The decline of Chicago soybean oil and international crude oil futures will drag down the Malaysian palm oil market. Domestic demand is weakening, and inventories are increasing. Although there are concerns about production in Malaysia, the upside is limited [19]. - **Corn**: The prices in the northern ports and Northeast production areas rebounded slightly, while the prices of new corn in North China continued to decline but at a slower pace. New grain is expected to be listed in large quantities from mid - October to November, with a downward price expectation. The futures contract has strong support [19]. - **Hogs**: Pig prices reached a new low this year. Supply is abundant, and demand is stable. The rebound space in late September is limited [20].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has officially initiated a rate-cutting cycle by lowering the benchmark interest rate from 4.25% to 4%, with a potential for three total cuts this year [1] - The latest dot plot indicates that most committee members expect two more 25 basis point cuts in the remaining meetings of the year, suggesting a long-term downward trend in interest rates [3] - Market expectations show a high probability of rate cuts, with an 87.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October and an 81.6% chance of cumulative cuts of 50 basis points by December [5] Group 2 - Fed Chair Powell emphasized a gradual approach to rate cuts, indicating a balance between employment and inflation risks, with an expected unemployment rate of 4.5% and a PCE inflation rate of 3% this year [6] - Continuous rate cuts may lead to rapid capital outflows from the U.S., putting pressure on the historically high U.S. stock indices, which could prompt the U.S. to implement measures to slow down this outflow [8] - The decline in interest rates reduces the cost of holding gold, coupled with increased demand for safe-haven assets, suggesting a strong long-term outlook for gold prices, potentially reaching $4,000 [8]

Group 1 - The expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is increasing, leading to a decline in the US dollar index, which supports gold prices [2] - Gold prices have reached a historical high of 3702, with fluctuations around 3674 and 3686, indicating strong market interest [2] - The market is advised to focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and potential support levels around 3675/80 [2] Group 2 - The API reported a larger-than-expected decline in US crude oil inventories, which, combined with interest rate cut expectations, has positively influenced market sentiment towards oil [4] - Crude oil prices rebounded from a low of 62.8 to a high of 64.7, breaking through a significant resistance level, although the sustainability of this trend is uncertain [4] - The market is advised to look for high and low trading opportunities around the 65 resistance level [4]