商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com. ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货大面积飘红，燃料油和焦煤涨幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20250826 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 221/221/221 181/181/181 基 础 色 辅 助 色 210/10/16 87/87/87 227/82/4 | 金融市场涨跌幅 | 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨 | 板块 | 品种 | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 现价 | 品种 | 现代 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 中美关税延期与宽松预期支持全球股市普涨 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250808-20250815) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.08.17 报告摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 本周(20250808-20250815) 2025年8月12日，中美两国在斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈后发布联合声明，宣布自即日起再次暂停实施针对彼此商品的24%关税，为期90天。同时，双方保 留对相关商品加征的剩余10%关税。此外，美国公布的7月PPI环比大幅上涨0.9%，市场预期涨幅0.2%。关税影响逐步体现，美国方面压力逐步升温。美国7月CPI同比上涨2.7%, 预期2.8%，小幅低于预期，9月降息预期边际提升至92.10%。风险偏好和宽松预期支持下，本周全球股市普遍上涨，创业板指数领涨全球。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率上行至 4.33%，美元指数略微下跌，当前位于100以下；2）权益方面，中美斯 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock - bond seesaw is obvious, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Affected by the strong stock market, the rising risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the strengthened expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - For trading strategies, in the unilateral trading, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates, and it is recommended to short at high levels for the 2509 contract. In the arbitrage trading, attention should be paid to the decline of the basis of TF2509. In the hedging trading, there is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a 0.10% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a - 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year change [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 408.34 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.74 trillion yuan (0.68%); M2 year - on - year growth is 7.30%, with a 0.20% (2.82%) month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, with a - 0.20% (- 0.40%) month - on - month change [8]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 109.41, with a 0.47 (0.43%) day - on - day change; the offshore US dollar - RMB exchange rate is 7.324, with a - 0.019 (- 0.25%) day - on - day change; SHIBOR 7 - day is 2.01, with a - 0.03 (- 1.28%) day - on - day change; DR007 is 2.12, with a - 0.21 (- 9.18%) day - on - day change; R007 is 1.94, with a 0.12 (6.52%) day - on - day change; the yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) for 3M is 1.89, with a 0.00 (0.09%) day - on - day change; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.15, with a - 0.01 (0.09%) day - on - day change [8]. 3.2 Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - Multiple charts are provided, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position - holding ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the spread between policy - bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance situation of treasury bonds [11][12][15]. 3.3 Money Market Fundamentals - Charts show the trend of Shibor interest rates, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance situation of local government bonds [24][25]. 3.4 Spread Overview - Multiple charts present the inter - term spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL), and the spread between spot bond spreads and futures spreads (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [28][35][36]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [38][41][51]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [47][48][53]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [56][59]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [64][66][70].

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] Core Views - The over - expected US initial jobless claims data, combined with the weak domestic economic growth and employment pressure, has intensified market concerns about the US economy, leading to more bets on the Fed's dovish turn. The Fed's personnel changes have also strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's easing. As a result, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Summary - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000, slightly higher than market expectations. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week increased by 38,000 to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021, exceeding market expectations. The cooling trend of labor data continues, and the market is trading on the loose expectation, which strongly supports the precious metal prices. Trump has selected Stephen Milan to replace a Fed governor, and the US Treasury Secretary has started the interview process for the new Fed chairman. There are also rumors about potential candidates. Geopolitically, Russia and the US have agreed in principle to hold a summit [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 7, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 782.28 yuan/gram and closed at 785.02 yuan/gram, a change of 0.17% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 785.44 yuan/gram, up 0.05% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,163.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,258.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 326,856 lots, and the open interest was 378,070 lots. The night - session closed at 9,241 yuan/kg, down 0.18% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 7, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.23%, up 1 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 0.51%, down 2 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On August 7, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,107 lots, and the short positions decreased by 180 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts was 234,653 lots, a decrease of 2.03% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 958 lots, and the short positions decreased by 708 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts was 471,384 lots, a decrease of 11.49% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 959.09 tons, up 6.30 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,112.28 tons, up 67.80 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 7, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was - 9.88 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was - 646.37 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 84.79, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 89.01, a decrease of 1.15% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On August 7, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 31,738 kg, an increase of 8.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 252,338 kg, an increase of 8.96% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,114 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 2,040 kg [7]. Outlook - Gold: The price of gold is expected to continue to rise, and the oscillation range of the Au2510 contract may be between 775 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram. - Silver: The price of silver is expected to continue to rise, and the oscillation range of the Ag2510 contract may be between 8,900 yuan/kg and 9,400 yuan/kg. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. - Options: On hold [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core View of the Report - The supply constraint logic still exists, providing strong support for copper prices. The demand side shows that the global visible copper inventory has increased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious, with no obvious marginal improvement in demand. There are concerns about whether the demand can be maintained in the second half of the year due to global macro - economic uncertainties. In the short term, the macro - level catalysts are weakening, making it difficult to significantly improve the overall copper demand expectation. In the future, the domestic anti - involution meeting's stance on copper supply constraints can still be expected, and the probability of a significant weakening of demand is low. It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper, with a buying range of 77,000 yuan/ton to 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 7, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,380 yuan/ton and closed at 78,460 yuan/ton, a 0.23% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,420 yuan/ton and closed at 78,360 yuan/ton, a 0.13% decrease from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market showed a stable - to - strong trend. The spot price was at a premium of 70 - 150 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract, with an average of 110 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The trading range was 78,410 - 78,590 yuan/ton. The market supply was structurally tight, with a decrease in domestic supply. The inventory decreased slightly this week, and the spot premium is expected to remain firm [2] Important Information Summary - Macro: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000, slightly higher than expected. The number of continued jobless claims increased by 38,000 to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021. The market is trading on easing expectations. There are personnel changes in the Fed. Geopolitically, Russia and the US are preparing for a summit. Overall, the data and personnel changes are fueling easing expectations, which may support copper prices [3] Mining End - Jubilee metals' Zambian copper investment portfolio has made significant progress, and it has all the assets needed for its copper expansion strategy. It has built a diversified platform with three pillars in Zambia [4] Smelting and Imports - In July 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 480,000 tons, increasing for two consecutive months and up 9.6% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative imports were 3.113 million tons, a 2.6% year - on - year decrease. The imports of copper concentrates in July were 2.56 million tons, an 8.9% increase from June, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 17.314 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year increase [4] Consumption - Wood Mackenzie's Charles Coope pointed out that copper consumption is expected to increase by about 2.6%. By 2035, about 6 million tons of new copper production capacity will be needed to meet the demand [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,275 tons to 156,000 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 201 tons to 20,145 tons. On August 7, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,000 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish, with a recommended buy - on - dips hedging strategy and a buying range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton. - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6][7] Data Table - The table shows data on copper prices, basis, inventory, warehouse receipts, and arbitrage from August 8, 2025, compared with previous periods, including prices of different copper types, inventory in different markets, and arbitrage spreads [25][26][27]

【宏观消息】 美国总统特朗普发文表示，印度不仅大量购买俄罗斯石油，还将其中大部分石油在公开市场上出售，牟 取暴利。因此，他将大幅提高印度向美国缴纳的关税。特朗普上月在"真实社交"平台上向印度发出威 胁：如果印度继续购买俄罗斯武器和石油，美方将在对印度商品征收25%进口关税的基础上额外施加惩 罚性关税。本月1日，特朗普又对媒体记者说，他相信印度打算停止购买俄罗斯石油。据路透社2日报 道，印度政府消息人士说，印俄双方所签为"长期石油合同"，"要在一夕之间停止采购，不是这么简单 的事 "。另一名消息人士说，印度进口俄罗斯石油，协助抑制全球油价上涨。 【黄金期货行情表现】 此外，瑞士联邦委员会当地时间8月4日表示，在美国宣布对瑞士进口商品征收39%的高关税后，瑞士决 定继续进行谈判，必要时将在8月7日新税率生效后继续谈判。瑞士联邦委员会表示，通过与瑞士工商界 的沟通，其已为与美国谈判制定了新策略。瑞士准备提出更具吸引力的方案，同时考虑美国关切并寻求 缓解当前关税状况。 8月5日，沪金主力暂报783.90元/克，涨幅达0.44%，今日沪金主力开盘价782.40元/克，截至目前最高 786.18元/克，最低782.38元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices oscillated and declined. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran, Fed Chair Powell's statement on the lack of urgency to cut interest rates, and the Sino - US trade agreement on rare earth supply led to a significant decline in the price of gold as a safe - haven asset. Silver was more resilient but also fell on Friday [4][7]. - Trump criticized Canada's digital tax, terminated US - Canada trade negotiations, and threatened new tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary hinted at a possible extension of the "tariff deadline" from July 9 to September 1. The US and China finalized a trade understanding on rare earth exports, and the US will lift trade counter - measures if China exports rare earths to the US [4][8]. - With the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the improvement in Sino - US trade relations, and the rise in the US core PCE supporting Powell's view, market expectations of monetary easing have decreased, putting pressure on safe - haven assets. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will continue to adjust in the short term [4][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE gold closed at 768.64 yuan/gram, down 9.94 yuan or 1.28%. Its total trading volume was 148,475 lots, and the total open interest was 178,255 lots [5]. - Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 763.08 yuan/gram, down 14.86 yuan or 1.91%. The total trading volume was 38,222 lots, and the total open interest was 213,128 lots [5]. - COMEX gold closed at 3286.10 dollars/ounce, down 98.30 dollars or 2.90% [5]. - SHFE silver closed at 8792 yuan/kilogram, up 128 yuan or 1.48%. The total trading volume was 522,479 lots, and the total open interest was 634,627 lots [5]. - Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 8748 yuan/kilogram, up 18 yuan or 0.21%. The total trading volume was 477,072 lots, and the total open interest was 3,111,050 lots [5]. - COMEX silver closed at 36.17 dollars/ounce, up 0.21 dollars or 0.60% [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The decline in precious metal prices was due to the cease - fire in the Middle East, Powell's statement on interest rates, and the Sino - US trade agreement on rare earths. Silver was more resilient due to the strong performance of platinum and palladium but also fell on Friday [4][7]. - After the cease - fire declaration, there were still mutual attacks between Iran and Israel, but the conflict did not worsen further. Iran's foreign minister said there was no plan to restart nuclear negotiations [7]. - Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance on interest rates, which dissatisfied Trump. Trump considered announcing Powell's successor in advance, causing market concerns [8]. - The US - Canada trade relationship became tense again, but Sino - US trade relations improved. The rise in the US core PCE supported Powell's view, and short - term gold and silver prices are expected to continue adjusting [4][8]. - This week, focus on the US June non - farm payroll data and the global central bank forum, especially Powell's remarks [9][11]. 3. Important Data Information - In May, the US core PCE price index rose 2.7% year - on - year, slightly exceeding expectations. The core PCE price increased 0.2% month - on - month, while real personal consumption expenditure decreased 0.3% month - on - month, and personal income decreased 0.4% month - on - month. Fed's Kashkari still expects two rate cuts this year, with the first possibly in September [12]. - The final value of the US Q1 real GDP decreased 0.5% annually and quarter - on - quarter, higher than expected. Personal consumption growth was revised down to 0.5%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 3.5% [12]. - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, lower than expected. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 [12]. - The initial value of US durable goods orders in May increased 16.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since July 2014. Core capital goods orders increased 1.7% [13]. - The initial value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the manufacturing PMI was 5.0, the highest since February. The raw material payment price index rose 5.4 points, and the price acceptance index also increased [13]. - The initial value of the Eurozone's June composite PMI was 50.2, lower than expected. Germany's composite PMI rose to 50.4, while France's fell to 48.5 [13]. - US consumer confidence in June unexpectedly declined. The consumer confidence index decreased 5.4 points to 93 [13]. - The one - year inflation expectation in the Michigan University consumer survey was adjusted from 5.1% to 5.0%, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was 4.0%, both lower than the previous values [14]. 4. Related Data Charts - As of June 27, 2025, the total gold position in ETFs was 954.82 tons, an increase of 4.58 tons from the previous week. The silver position in ishare was 14,866.19 tons, an increase of 115.91 tons from the previous week [15]. - As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial net long position in gold futures was 195,004, a decrease of 5,644 from the previous week. The non - commercial net long position in silver futures was 62,947, a decrease of 4,227 from the previous week [17]. - The report also provides multiple charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, net long position changes, and price differences of precious metals, as well as the relationships between precious metals and other economic indicators such as the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and bond yields [19][21][26]

CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：以伊停火生效，鲍威尔重申观望态度但对降息前景"端水"，金价下 跌；美国三大股指均涨超1%，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美元指数跌0.42%报 97.97，离岸人民币对美元升值报7.1644； 美债收益率集体下跌，10年期跌近5个基 点报4.297%；COMEX黄金期货跌1.66%报3338.5美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货771.86，现货770.07，基差-0.79，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单18213千克，增加45千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线上方 ...

Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term market reaction to tariff factors has become dull, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures has slightly slowed down, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. The domestic economy has a risk of being high in the front and low in the back, and there is still room for monetary policy easing. Recently, the bond market may maintain a shock, but the adjustment risk is limited, and the probability of a long - position winning is high [11][12]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: In the first quarter, the economic performance was better than expected, but the tariff impact was not yet reflected. The landing of negative factors boosted market sentiment, but the short - term pressure on the capital side still had a suppressing effect [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board. The short - end decline was within 1bp, and the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond declined by 1 - 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250004 was reported at 1.654%, down 1.25bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank conducted a net withdrawal in the open market, and the funding situation was stable. There were 1189 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank carried out 1045 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net withdrawal of 144 billion yuan. The short - term inter - bank funding rate rose slightly, while the medium - and long - term funds were stable [10]. - **Conclusion**: The short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures has slowed down, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. The domestic economy has a risk of being high in the front and low in the back, and there is still room for easing. The main factor hindering the decline of interest rates in the short term is the capital side. Recently, the bond market may maintain a shock, but the adjustment risk is limited, and the probability of a long - position winning is high [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - China's national economy had a good start in the first quarter. The GDP in the first quarter was 31.8758 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.4% at constant prices. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.5%, 5.9%, and 5.3% respectively. The capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 74.1%, up 0.5 percentage points year - on - year. The total retail sales of consumer goods in March was 4.094 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in the first quarter was 10.3174 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The per capita disposable income of residents in the first quarter was 12,179 yuan, with a nominal year - on - year increase of 5.5%, and the per capita consumption expenditure was 7,681 yuan, with a nominal year - on - year increase of 5.2% [13]. - China has established trade partnerships with more than 150 countries and regions, and the dependence on a single export market has decreased. For example, the proportion of China's exports to the United States in total exports decreased from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% last year [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Information on the trading data of Treasury bond futures on April 16, including contract details such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, and open interest, is provided [6]. - **Money Market**: The central bank's open - market operations, the situation of reverse repurchase maturities and operations, the movement of short - term and medium - long - term funding rates, and the situation of the inter - bank short - term funding rate are presented [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on the curves of Shibor3M interest rate swaps and FR007 interest rate swaps is provided [34].