中金研究 发改委9月29日新闻发布会公布本轮新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元，我们预计将在今年四季度落地，有望撬动包括信贷资金在内的5万亿元新增 投资，信贷"资产荒"环境有望出现拐点。本轮政策性金融工具从出台背景、资金投向到撬动资金规模与此前两轮都有所不同，本文我们对此进行详 解。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 应对经贸新形势。 本轮政策性金融工具最早由4月25日政治局会议提出，为历史第三次，历史上2015-2017年、2022年分别推出过两批工具主要针对当时 面临的经济下行压力。我们认为本轮有所不同，不仅为应对外贸不确定性环境及扩大内需，也针对地方财政资金承压的背景下支持科技创新和新质生产 力、挖掘经济长期增长的新动能。 资金投向有所不同。 本轮政策性金融工具规模5000亿元与2022年的7400亿元左右较为接近，但投向存在差异。与此前两轮主要投向基建不同，我们预计 此次新型政策性金融工具在投向上更侧重数字经济、人工智能、低空经济等新质生产力领域，以及扩大内需的消费类基础设施，同时部分资金用于支持民 营企业反映出政策层面坚定支持民营经济发展的导向。 财政金融政策新协同。 我们预计本轮政 ...

商务部决定对境外相关稀土物项实施出口管制 据商务部网站消息，10月9日，商务部发布了相关公告，公布对境外相关稀土物项实施出口管制的决 定，以及对稀土相关技术实施出口管制的决定。在对稀土相关技术实施出口管制的决定中，商务部明确 提到，以下物项未经许可不得出口。一是稀土开采、冶炼分离、金属冶炼、磁材制造、稀土二次资源回 收利用相关技术及其载体；二是稀土开采、冶炼分离、金属冶炼、磁材制造、稀土二次资源回收利用相 关生产线装配、调试、维护、维修、升级等技术。 中国和印度将于今年10月底前恢复直航航班 宏观要闻 央行今日开展1.1万亿买断式逆回购操作 中国人民银行发布公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，10月9日以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中 标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 ...

监测周报 2025 年 9 月 22 日—2025 年 9 月 28 日 总第 359 期 2025 年第 36 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 地方政府债与城投行业 5000 亿政策性金融工具落地， 有望拉动 2-5 万亿基建投资 鲁 璐 llu@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 35 期】河南专项债及专项贷款协力"清 欠"，第二批置换仅剩 2 省未发行完 2025- 09-28 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 34 期】超六成融资平台实现退出，甘肃 出台全国首个省级 PPP 存量项目方案 2025- 09-18 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 33 期】专项债会计处理新规强化资金监 管,山东力争 10 月底前完成专项债发行， 2025-09-11 ——地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年第 36 期 本期要点 ◼ 要闻点评 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 32 期】宁夏、江西加快推进"退 ...

企查查APP显示，近日，国开新型政策性金融工具有限公司、农发新型政策性金融工具有限公司、进银 新型政策性金融工具有限公司成立，注册资本分别为200亿元、100亿元、50亿元，经营范围均为以自有 资金从事投资活动。企查查股权穿透显示，三者分别由国家开发银行、中国农业发展银行、中国进出口 银行全资持股。 （原标题：国开、农发、进出口银行新设新型政策性金融工具公司） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September 2025, with the addition of the traditional "Golden September" peak season, the PMI slightly rebounded below the boom - bust line, but the recovery was still mild, and structural contradictions remained. The production in September drove the PMI to rise by 0.28pct, followed by the employees, while the demand and material inventory contributed less than 0.1pct. The production - new order gap widened, and the PMI increase was weaker than the average in September since 2022, falling short of the seasonality. The economic recovery foundation needs to be strengthened, and the 50 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments may be the key to "break the situation" [6][12]. - For the bond market, the PMI has been below the boom - bust line for 6 consecutive months. The market has fully anticipated the weak data. In the fourth quarter, new policy - based financial instruments will take effect. Attention should be paid to whether data such as new orders are "better than expected". The downstream construction and project expenditures may speed up in the fourth quarter, which may drive the performance of the mid - stream manufacturing industry. Attention should also be paid to whether the PMI can exceed the seasonal level and return above the boom - bust line [6][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Manufacturing PMI: Moderately Upward, Elasticity Awaits Policy Boost (1) Supply and Demand: The Supply - Demand Gap May Widen Again - New orders increased by 0.2pct month - on - month to 49.7%. The impact of high temperature and heavy rain faded, and exports showed resilience, but the intensity of demand recovery was still insufficient as the increase in September was the lowest since 2022 [2][16]. - Production increased by 1.1pct month - on - month to 51.9%, being the largest contributor to PMI improvement. The production peak season was realized, and the procurement volume and production and operation activity expectation index increased. The "production - new order" gap widened to 2.2pct, the highest since the beginning of the year, and the supply - demand differentiation intensified [2][20]. (2) Foreign Trade: New Export Orders Rebound Faster - New export orders increased by 0.6pct month - on - month to 47.8%, and imports increased by 0.1pct to 48.1%. In September, due to the Christmas product export peak season and the demand from non - US economies, exports were stable, and port freight volume remained high. The increase in new export orders in September exceeded that in August and was better than the overall new orders, showing export resilience [24]. - Imports continued the slight upward trend and were at a high level in the same period, indicating that enterprises' demand for import stocking was strong [25]. (3) Price: The Pressure of Price Decline Reappears - In September, the purchase price of raw materials and the ex - factory price decreased by 0.1pct and 0.9pct month - on - month to 53.2% and 48.2% respectively. The supply and demand of the basic raw material industry declined, dragging down the price index, while the prices of industries such as equipment manufacturing improved, showing a large industry differentiation [3][29]. (4) Inventory: Slow Destocking, Active Production, and a Sharp Increase in Product Inventory - In September, the raw material inventory index increased by 0.5pct to 48.5% due to the increase in procurement volume. However, the downstream demand destocking was slow, and the production expanded actively, resulting in a 1.4pct increase in finished product inventory to the highest level in the same period, showing the characteristic of "passive inventory accumulation" [3][31]. II. Non - Manufacturing PMI: The Construction Industry Continues to Be in Low - level Prosperity, Awaiting Policy Effect - In September, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3pct. The service industry PMI decreased by 0.4pct to 50.1%, and the construction industry PMI increased by 0.2pct to 49.3%, remaining below the boom - bust line [36]. - The construction industry expansion was still weak. The business activity indexes of housing construction and civil engineering construction were below 50%. The lack of new orders was the main factor restricting construction. The 50 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments may accelerate the investment rhythm in the fourth quarter and help the construction industry PMI recover [4][36]. - The service industry's prosperity declined in the off - season. After the summer vacation, tourism consumption entered the off - season. The approaching National Day holiday is expected to drive the improvement of travel service consumption [4][36].

Group 1: Policy Differences - The new policy financial tools in 2023 are aimed at supporting domestic demand and technological innovation, contrasting with the 2022 focus on stabilizing growth[3] - The new tools will prioritize eight key sectors, including digital economy, artificial intelligence, and green low-carbon initiatives, with 20% of funding directed to private enterprises[3][10] - Infrastructure investment growth has declined significantly, with August's year-on-year growth rates at -5.9% and -6.4% for new and old standards respectively, indicating a shift in funding usage towards debt repayment rather than project construction[3][10] Group 2: Funding Sources and Economic Impact - The funding sources for the new policy tools differ from 2022, as the current PSL rate is higher than the issuance rate of policy bonds, reducing the necessity for PSL support[4][21] - If the new policy financial tools leverage the same 5.5 times ratio as in 2022, the 500 billion yuan allocation could mobilize 2.75 trillion yuan in new social financing, potentially driving 1.5 to 2 trillion yuan in fixed asset investment[5][30] - The net financing of local government bonds has been negative, with a cumulative net financing of -421.9 billion yuan from January to September 2023, reflecting a reduced willingness for traditional infrastructure investment[10][21] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - There may be discrepancies in understanding the policy details, which could lead to differences between expectations and actual implementation[6][31] - The timing of policy rollout and its impact on investment may fall short of expectations, particularly as the fourth quarter approaches and construction activity may slow down[6][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current high copper prices and the impact of various economic factors on commodity markets, including government policies, production targets, and market trends in different sectors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Trends - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan aimed at supporting project capital, which is expected to stimulate economic growth [1]. - From January to August, state-owned enterprises reported total revenue of 539,620.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while total profits decreased by 2.7% to 27,937.2 billion yuan [1]. - The domestic commodity futures market saw a general decline, particularly in energy and chemical products, indicating a bearish trend in these sectors [1]. Group 2: Copper Market Insights - Copper prices rose by 1.59% in the night session, with a significant reduction in China's copper production growth target for 2025-2026 from 5% to 1.5% [2][21]. - The ongoing tight supply of copper concentrate and high smelting profits are expected to support copper prices in the long term, especially following mining incidents in Indonesia [2][21]. Group 3: Stock Market Overview - The US stock indices experienced slight increases, with the non-bank financial sector leading gains, while coal stocks lagged [3][12]. - The financing balance decreased by 193.55 billion yuan to 24,080.56 billion yuan, indicating a cautious approach among investors as the market enters a consolidation phase after a prolonged rally [3][12]. Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - The SC crude oil price fell by 2.87%, influenced by Russia's export bans on diesel and gasoline amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [4][14]. - The US labor department reported a decrease in initial jobless claims, suggesting a resilient labor market, which may impact oil demand [4][14]. Group 5: Agricultural Products and Commodities - The article highlights fluctuations in agricultural commodities, with Argentina's temporary cancellation of export taxes on soybeans and derivatives affecting global markets [28]. - The domestic market anticipates increased supply due to this policy change, leading to potential downward pressure on prices [28].

1. 公开市场操作 央行 9 月 29 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 2886 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 2886 亿元，中标量 2886 亿 元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 2405 亿元 逆回购到期 ，据此计算，单日净投放 481 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 银行间市场周一资金面整体平稳均衡，季末结构性矛盾凸显，月内隔夜资金充沛，跨季资金价格仍居高；存款类机构隔夜回购加权利率回到逼近 1.3% 一 线，为逾两年低点。 （IMM） 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.18% 。 // 债市综述 // （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单二级市场上最新成交在 1.685% 附近。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 | | 1 Y | 2Y | ЗУ | 54 | 7Y | 10Y | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国債 | 1.3550 0 ...

抓紧将新型政策性金融工具资金投放到具体项目。 备受市场关注的新型政策性金融工具有了新进展。 国家发改委政策研究室副主任、委新闻发言人李超29日在发布会上透露，为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决 策部署，促进金融更好服务实体经济，推动扩大有效投资，国家发改委会同有关方面积极推进新型政策 性金融工具有关工作。新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金。 国家发改委在8月1日的新闻发布会上表示"将报批加快设立投放新型政策性金融工具"。9月10日，国家 发改委主任郑栅洁向全国人大常委会报告下半年工作时也提到，将加快设立投放新型政策性金融工具。 从各地公开信息来看，新型政策性金融工具将重点聚焦数字经济、人工智能、低空经济、消费领域基础 设施、绿色低碳转型、农业农村、交通和物流以及市政和产业园区等重点领域。 银河证券研究报告认为，政策性金融工具作为"准财政"工具，将成为地方政府债务化解周期拉动有效投 资的政策选择。该工具意在解决项目建设资本金不足问题，其投资领域可能包括消费基础设施、"两 重""两新"等。 华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘分析，在地产周期持续磨底、而货币政策空间收窄的背景下，财政政策 对中国逆周期调 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that six departments have issued measures to support high-quality digital innovation enterprises in their listing and financing efforts [1] - Financial institutions are encouraged to provide market-oriented financial services tailored to the investment and financing needs of digital innovation enterprises [1] - The measures include optimizing the evaluation mechanism for state-owned venture capital and incorporating the cultivation of digital economy "gazelle" and "unicorn" enterprises into the assessment criteria [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments have released a work plan for stable growth in the petrochemical industry for 2025-2026 [2] - The plan outlines ten specific measures focusing on enhancing industrial technological innovation, increasing effective supply capacity, expanding effective investment, and broadening market demand [2] - The petrochemical industry is expected to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026, with significant improvements in economic efficiency and technological innovation capabilities [2]