21世纪经济报道 记者 崔文静 实习生 张长荣 两会期间，中国银河证券首席经济学家章俊接受21世纪经济报道专访时表示，2026年政府工作报告主要呈现四大亮点：设定区间式经济增长目标、突出服务 消费的重要地位、强化民生保障部署、全面推进绿色转型。 从政策工具看，有三方面值得期待：财政力度总体稳定，结构性增量主要体现在提高政策性金融工具额度；消费政策从短期刺激转向长效机制建设；设立 1000 亿元财政金融协同促进内需专项资金。 资本市场领域，报告释放出三方面积极信号：一是显著提升直接融资特别是股权融资比重；二是持续深化投融资综合改革；三是健全中长期资金入市机制， 并进一步强化投资者保护。 ...

%% %% %% %% 固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 政策性金融工具，能撬多少倍？——"财政的底 色"系列报告（四） 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BWI629 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 政策性金融工具有显著的"准财政"属性，它能发挥市场化运作优势，撬动更多民间资本参与， 提高投资效率。2026 年 2 月国常会提到"要加力提效用好新型政策性金融工具"，我们预计 2026 年新型政策性金融工具规模或将保持高位，延续"精准支持、高效投放、结构优化"的导 向。随着项目最低资本金比例的结构性调降，理论上政策性金融工具的撬动倍数上升。我们手 工收集并计算了各省、部分披露项目的撬动倍数情况，新型政策性金融工具的撬动倍数集中在 10 倍左右，但在实践中可能存在高估。 %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table ...

债券 2026 年 3 月 6 日 政府工作报告学习体会 政策性金融工具积极发力，货币强调灵活高效 证券分析师 证 券 研 究 报 告 风险提示：1）外围地缘政治局势急剧变化；2）降准降息时机和力度存在不 确定性；3）经济数据开门红情况不及预期。 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060519060001 LIULU979@pingan.com.cn 郑子辰 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521090001 ZHENGZICHEN160@pingan.com.cn 前言：2026 年 3 月 5 日，全国两会召开，发布 2026 年《政府工作报告》。 "十五五"规划开局之年，目标设置基本符合市场预期。1）2026 年 GDP 增速设定在 4.5%-5%左右的区间目标，强调"在实际工作中努力争取更好 结果"。2）居民消费价格涨幅目标维持 2%左右，持平去年；3）城镇调查 失业率目标 5.5％左右，城镇新增就业目标 1200 万人以上，持平去年。 财政政策方面，2026 年政府债供给规模基本持平，政策性金融工具超预期。 财政政策延续"更加积极"的基调，考虑到置换债后，2026 年政府债供给 合计约 13.89 万亿，整体 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20260305 细微处见大势，关注 5 个信息——学习政府 工作报告精神 2026 年 03 月 05 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《黄金 ETF，2026 年 2 月复盘与 3 月 展望》 2026-03-03 《纳斯达克 100ETF，2 月复盘与 3 月 展望》 2026-03-03 东吴证券研究所 1 / 6 [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：今年政府工作报告在总量政策方面与市场预期较为一致，但 在投资、消费、绿色、财税、民生等细节方面有较多重点细节信息，可 以从细微处见大势布局。一是 8000 亿政策性金融工具，比去年增加 3000 亿，挖掘投资潜力；二是设立 1000 亿财政金融协同促内需专项资金， 从供需两端促消费、扩内需；三是能耗目标改为碳排放目标，单位 GDP 碳排放量目标降幅 3.8%，淘汰落后产能；四 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector in 2026, indicating a return to fundamental narratives supported by policy-driven financial tools [6][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in January 2026, social financing (社融) increased by 8.2% year-on-year, with a total increment of 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of asset expansion in the banking sector, supported by a concentrated repricing cycle of deposits, which is expected to stabilize net interest margins [25][26]. - It identifies two main investment themes: quality small and medium-sized banks with solid fundamentals and state-owned banks with defensive value [26]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Loan Growth - In January 2026, social financing increased by 8.2% year-on-year, with a total increment of 7.22 trillion yuan, which is 1,654 billion yuan more than the previous year [9][10]. - The report notes that the increment in government bonds was significant, with an increase of 2,831 billion yuan, marking the highest level for January since 2020 [10]. - The report indicates that the growth rate of loans fell to 6.1% year-on-year, with new loans amounting to 4.71 trillion yuan, which is 4,200 billion yuan less than the previous year [13][14]. Deposit Growth and Monetary Aggregates - M1 and M2 growth rates showed a rebound, with M1 increasing by 4.9% year-on-year and M2 by 9.0% [21]. - The report states that new RMB deposits reached 8.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.77 trillion yuan year-on-year, driven by significant growth in corporate and non-bank deposits [21][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two investment lines: quality small and medium-sized banks such as Nanjing Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and state-owned banks like Bank of Communications and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which are rated as stable [25][26].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the personnel adjustments within the China Development Bank (CDB), including the appointment of new leaders and the promotion of young cadres [1][20][21] - The new Chief Business Officer of CDB is Hong Dengjin, who was previously the General Manager of the Development and Planning Department [1][20] - A new round of personnel adjustments has begun, affecting several provincial branch leaders and deputy leaders, with multiple young cadres being promoted [1][20] Group 2 - Yang Jun, the Minister of the Party and Mass Work Department, has reached retirement age and has held various positions within CDB [3][21] - Song Zheng, the current head of the Hunan Provincial Branch, is proposed to become the Minister of the Party and Mass Work Department [5][21] - Li Zhijun, the head of the Gansu Provincial Branch, will take over as the head of the Hunan Provincial Branch, having previously held various leadership roles within CDB [7][23] Group 3 - Cheng Yongxu, the head of the Sichuan Provincial Branch, has reached retirement age and has held multiple leadership positions within CDB [9][25] - Mu Lan, the Deputy General Manager of the Transportation Business Department, is proposed to become the head of the Ningxia Provincial Branch [11][27] - Wang Qiang, the current head of the Ningxia Provincial Branch, is proposed to take over as the head of the Sichuan Provincial Branch [12][28] Group 4 - Liu Jun, the Deputy Head of the Hebei Provincial Branch, is proposed to become the Deputy Head of the Hunan Provincial Branch [14][30] - Niu Xiaoyu, the Director of the Technology Finance Department in the Beijing Branch, is proposed to become the Deputy Head of the Sichuan Provincial Branch, recognized for his contributions to major project financing [16][32] - Ren Xin, the Director of the Customer Department in the Shaanxi Provincial Branch, is proposed to become the Deputy Head of the Xinjiang Provincial Branch, with a strong background in various business areas [18][34] Group 5 - CDB has 37 first-level branches and 4 second-level branches in mainland China, with a presence in major cities and regions [18][34] - In 2024, CDB's average number of employees is projected to be 12,234, an increase of 308 from the previous year, with a total salary of 6.142 billion yuan and an average salary of 502,000 yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.46% [18][34][35] - CDB aims to support national development strategies by leveraging its financial capabilities, with plans to invest 250 billion yuan in new policy financial tools by 2025, supporting over 1,054 projects and driving total investment of 3.85 trillion yuan [19][35]

据了解，进口预付款保险，是指当国内进口商按进口合同约定预付款项后，依据进口合同有权并且 已经要求国外供应商退还该笔预付款时，因政治风险或商业风险原因导致其不能收回相应预付款所遭受 的直接损失，保险将对进口商的预付款损失进行赔偿。 作为江苏省重点进口企业，江苏省对外经贸股份有限公司重点聚焦金属矿产等原材料专业领域进口 业务，同时拥有从上游原材料对接再到中游仓储服务，最终到终端龙头加工工厂的产业链供应链体系， 在行业内具有良好的市场竞争力和影响力。进口预付款保单通过政策性兜底，覆盖跨境采购中的政治风 险（如战争、汇兑限制）和商业风险（如供应商破产、恶意违约）。 近年来，受国际地缘政治波动、贸易壁垒升级及供应商违约风险叠加影响，外贸企业预付款资金安 全与资源交付稳定性面临严峻挑战。在此背景下，政策性金融工具正成为稳外贸、保供应链的重要支 撑。 记者日前从中国信保江苏分公司获悉，2025年4月，中国信保江苏分公司为江苏省对外经贸股份有 限公司成功出具疫情后全省首张进口预付款保单，此次承保不仅填补了市场空白，更助力企业在复杂国 际贸易环境中增强议价能力与采购韧性，标志着政策性金融工具在稳外贸的关键作用中再升级。 中国信 ...

Group 1: Industrial Performance Overview - In December 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of revenue for large-scale industrial enterprises was 1.1%, down from 1.6% in November 2025[1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of profits for large-scale industrial enterprises increased to 0.6% in December 2025, up from 0.1% in November 2025[1] - December 2025 saw a significant recovery in monthly profit growth, turning positive at 5.3%, a rebound of 18.4 percentage points from the previous month's -13.1%[2] Group 2: Profit and Revenue Dynamics - Despite the positive profit growth, December's revenue growth was negative at -2.98%, indicating ongoing challenges in revenue generation[2] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased by 3.8 days year-on-year to 67.9 days, reflecting continued cash flow and operational pressures on enterprises[2] - The overall profit growth for industrial enterprises remains low, influenced by high base effects and weak domestic demand, with operating costs rising by 1.3% compared to a 1.1% increase in revenue[5] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The upstream mining sector continues to be the largest drag on overall industry performance, with coal and oil extraction showing significant declines, while non-ferrous metal mining performed well[5] - The profit growth for the raw materials manufacturing sector was 10.3% in December, indicating stabilization in traditional manufacturing due to new policy-driven financial tools[5] - Downstream consumer goods saw a sharp decline in profit growth, recorded at -7.9%, worsening from -6.9% in the previous month, linked to declining retail consumption growth[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Industrial profit growth is expected to remain positive in January and February 2026, supported by a low base effect from the previous year and the impact of policy-driven financial tools[5] - Forward-looking indicators, including the January Business Confidence Index (BCI) for investment, sales, and profit, showed significant recovery, suggesting a continuation of the improving trend in enterprise profits[5]

Group 1 - The overall financial situation in multiple provinces shows an increase in household deposits and a decrease in loans, indicating that while residents' financial confidence is growing, their consumption and housing confidence still need improvement [2][12] - As of the end of 2025, the total household deposits in China reached 167 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.71%, translating to an average per capita deposit of approximately 118,900 yuan [3][12] - In Guangdong, the total loan balance was 29.9 trillion yuan, with a deposit balance of 38.7 trillion yuan, maintaining the highest financial volume in the country [3][13] Group 2 - In Zhejiang, the total deposit balance was 24.63 trillion yuan, with household deposits growing nearly 10% year-on-year [4][13] - Jiangsu reported a significant increase in household deposits by 11.48%, the highest among the provinces, with per capita deposits reaching 156,000 yuan [4][14] - The increase in household deposits is attributed to heightened precautionary savings, a shift from riskier assets to safer bank deposits, and proactive debt repayment by residents [5][15][16] Group 3 - The structure of loans has changed, with household loans decreasing while corporate loans have increased significantly [7][17] - In Guangdong, household loans decreased by 47.18 billion yuan, while corporate loans increased by 5.36% year-on-year [7][17] - Corporate loans increased by 1,070 billion yuan, with both short-term and medium-term loans showing substantial growth, supported by new policy financial tools [9][19]

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1401879 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year at constant prices, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively [1][8] - The contribution rates to economic growth from final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, and net exports of goods and services were 52%, 15.3%, and 32.7% respectively for the year [7][8] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods for 2025 amounted to 501202 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, slightly up from 3.5% in the previous year [3][10][11] - In December, retail sales showed a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.12% [3][10] Fixed Asset Investment - Total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for 2025 was 485186 billion yuan, down 3.8% from the previous year, with a notable decline in real estate development investment by 17.2% [5][12] - Infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2%, while manufacturing investment saw a slight increase of 0.6% [12] Economic Trends - The economic performance in 2025 exhibited a pattern of high growth in the first half followed by a slowdown in the second half, attributed to reduced fiscal support and a weakening real estate market [9] - The decline in investment was a significant drag on economic performance, with the central economic work conference emphasizing the need to stabilize investment in 2026 [12][15] Future Outlook - For 2026, there are expectations for a rebound in consumer spending, with potential increases in fiscal support for consumption, aiming for a retail sales growth rate of around 5.0% [16] - Investment in infrastructure is anticipated to stabilize, with a focus on high-quality projects and strategic emerging industries, despite challenges from high base effects and external demand fluctuations [16][17]