目前，我国财政资源和举债空间仍然充裕，接下来，应加强形势的前瞻研判，通过"存量政策加快落 地、增量工具适时推出"两手发力，持续释放财政政策效应。 目前，我国财政资源和举债空间仍然充裕，接下来，应加强形势的前瞻研判，通过"存量政策加快落 地、增量工具适时推出"两手发力，持续释放财政政策效应。当前，要加快谋划、落实落细更加积极的 财政政策，通过稳步扩大有效需求、保障和改善民生、推动创新发展，进一步增强经济与财政良性互 动。统筹用好预算内投资、超长期特别国债、专项债等政策工具，加快政府债券发行、实物工作量形 成。 还要持续用力防范化解隐性债务、拖欠企业账款等重点风险，并兜牢各地"三保"底线。做好财政政策储 备，相继推出一批增量政策，主动靠前发力。如可推出新型政策性金融工具、提前下达部分新增债务限 额、靠前使用化债额度、盘活政府债务结存限额等。必要时考虑出台新的增量政策。如近期中央从地方 政府债务结存限额中安排5000亿元资金下达地方，用于支持地方化债、偿还政府拖欠企业账款，并扩大 有效投资。随着新型政策性金融工具开始投放，将对今年四季度和明年年初基建投资形成支撑。此外， 进一步强化财政政策与其他宏观政策协同联动，打 ...

Core Insights - The fiscal revenue and expenditure data for the first ten months of the year shows a slight increase in public budget revenue and expenditure, indicating a continuation of improvement in fiscal conditions [1][2]. Revenue Analysis - From January to October, the total public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. Tax revenue accounted for 153,364 billion yuan, growing by 1.7%, while non-tax revenue fell by 3.1% to 33,126 billion yuan [2][3]. - The central government's public budget revenue was 81,856 billion yuan, down 0.8%, while local government revenue increased by 2.1% to 104,634 billion yuan [2]. - Tax revenue growth has shown a recovery trend for eight consecutive months, with an October year-on-year growth rate of 8.6%. The overall tax revenue growth target for the year is set at 3.7% [2][3]. Expenditure Analysis - Total public budget expenditure for the same period was 225,825 billion yuan, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year. Central government expenditure rose by 6.3% to 34,727 billion yuan, while local government expenditure increased by 1.2% to 191,098 billion yuan [5]. - Expenditure in social security and employment grew by 9.3%, education by 4.7%, and science and technology by 5.7%, indicating a focus on social welfare and development [5][6]. Sector-Specific Insights - The growth in tax revenue was particularly strong in personal income tax, which increased by 11.5%, and stamp duty, which surged by 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 88.1% [3]. - The analysis suggests that the recovery in tax revenue is linked to improved economic conditions, including a more active capital market and the implementation of new tax reporting regulations for internet platform enterprises [3][4]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the fiscal revenue growth target for the year is likely to be achieved, supported by a moderate recovery in prices and effective fiscal policies [4]. - There is a need for increased fiscal spending in the last two months of the year, especially in infrastructure and public welfare sectors, to counteract the slower spending observed in October [5][6].

广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 10 月公共财政收入同比 3.2% ，创年内单月增速高点。其中税收表现偏强，同比 8.6% ，大致持平前值 8.7% 的高位，显著高于前 8 个月累计同比的 0.02% 。同时财政对非税的依赖度进一步下降，非税收入同比 -33% 。今年财政收入年累计增速并不高，前 10 个月同 比为 0.8% ，和今年名义 GDP 增速中枢依然偏低的状况匹配；但 9 月以来边际改善较为明显。 第二， 10月税收增速为何偏强？基数并不是关键，从绝对规模来看，10月税收收入也显著超出季节性。其中个人所得税近月表现相对突 出，9月个税同比16.7%、10月同比27.3%。我们理解一则可能与资本市场表现活跃、财富效应有所增加有关；二则可能与10月实施的《互 联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》有关。除个税外，消费税由于其税收结构，或受金价上行的带动较多。企业所得税和国内增值税的好 转，应与PPI环比改善有关，后者9月以来的好转还与增值税留抵退税政策、国债等利息收入政策调整有关。 第三， 财政支出同比下行12.9个百分点至-9.8% ...

Macroeconomic Environment - The US government has ended its longest shutdown, with a temporary funding bill supporting most government departments until January 30, 2026, requiring further negotiations thereafter [3] - Economic data releases in the US are delayed, with upcoming non-farm payroll data expected to show a significant cooling in the job market, potentially leading to another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [3][4] - In Europe, industrial production has underperformed expectations, but economic sentiment indicators are improving, with the European Central Bank focusing on economic recovery while expressing concerns about inflation [4] Domestic Economic Conditions - In China, new social financing in October decreased year-on-year, impacted by the real estate cycle and local government debt repayments, leading to suppressed corporate loans [4] - Monetary aggregates M1 and M2 have slowed in growth, with ongoing issues such as slow fiscal fund disbursement and a decline in fixed asset investment growth [4] - High-frequency data indicates a decline in real estate transactions, while agricultural wholesale prices have slightly increased; upstream prices for coking coal and coke have dropped, while non-ferrous metals and gold prices have strengthened [4] Financial Data and Market Trends - October's credit data was weak, aligning with the third-quarter monetary policy report indicating a decrease in indirect financing ratios; a new 500 billion yuan policy financial tool is expected to boost credit demand [8] - The bond market has seen a narrow fluctuation in yields, with a total issuance of 98 bonds amounting to 679.6 billion yuan during the reporting period, indicating an increase in both national and local special bond issuance [9] - The market outlook suggests that while inflation data has shown some improvement, credit data remains weak, and the bond market is currently desensitized to fundamental data [10]

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 今日焦点 | 腾讯控股 | | 700 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 3 季度业绩超预期 | | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 港元 641.00 | 目标价: 港元 729.00↑ | 潜在涨幅: +13.7% | | 谷馨瑜,CPA | connie.gu@bocomgroup.com | | 2025 年 3 季度业绩：总收入同比增 15%至 1928.7 亿元（人民币，下同 ），高于我们预期 4%，其中游戏+23%/社交+4%/营销+21%/金融企服 +10%。毛利润同比增 22%，继续快于收入增速，毛利率同比优化约 3.3 个百分点至 56.4%，得益于高毛利业务包括本土游戏、视频号和微信搜 索等毛利收入增量贡献以及云服务成本持续优化优化。调整后每股盈利 7.58 元，同比增 19%，高于我们预期 6%。 展望及估值：我们认为，公司仍可维持稳定收入增速及利润增长。2025 年资本支出占收比预计低于 10%，但绝对值仍高于 2024 年，预计约 800 亿元，我们认为其投入主要用于自有产品的迭代升级，并未将算力业务 作 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.97% at 3990.49 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.93% [1][7] - The industrial production showed steady growth, with the national industrial added value increasing by 4.9% year-on-year in October, and the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 8.0% [2][8] - The retail sales of consumer goods totaled 46,291 billion yuan in October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [2][23] Market Review - The A-share market saw a total trading volume of approximately 1.96 trillion yuan, with over 3000 stocks declining [1][7] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 1.85%, while the U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.65% and the Nasdaq up 0.13% [1][7] Economic Data - The consumer price index (CPI) turned from decline to increase, rising by 0.2% year-on-year in October, compared to a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month [2][8] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment continued to grow [2][8] Industry Analysis - The offline pharmacy sector showed significant profit growth in Q3 2025, indicating effective cost control and efficiency improvements [9][14] - The pharmaceutical sector's performance in Q3 was better than the previous two quarters, with the medical research outsourcing and chemical preparation sub-sectors showing notable gains [10][12] Investment Recommendations - The long-term logic of prescription outflow remains unchanged, benefiting leading pharmacies with strong service capabilities and supply chain systems [14] - The report suggests focusing on leading brokerage firms with relatively low valuations, as the brokerage sector is expected to see performance improvements [15][17] Retail Sector Insights - The retail sector's performance in October showed a decline in commodity retail growth, while dining revenue growth improved [23][24] - Online retail sales for the first ten months of 2025 increased by 9.6% year-on-year, accounting for 31.03% of total retail sales [25][26]

在投资方面，报告显示，前三季度固定资产投资同比增速较上半年放缓，展望下一阶段，中美经贸局势 缓和以及财政推出5000亿元新型政策性金融工具，制造业投资表现有望在四季度迎来修复。在政府的支 持引导下，基建投资与房地产投资也将逐步回升，步入新稳态。 11月4日，毕马威发布2025年四季度《中国经济观察》报告（以下简称"报告"），毕马威中国经济研究 院院长蔡伟表示，展望四季度，在中美经贸局势缓和、宏观政策提振内需的背景下，以投资为代表的内 需表现有望迎来修复，全年5%左右的经济增速目标有望顺利实现。 在产出方面，报告显示，前三季度我国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.2%。展望下一阶段，内需回升 将带动生产修复。伴随5000亿元政策性金融工具的投放与使用，制造业投资、基建投资需求回升，相关 投资所需设备器具、上游建材等产品有望迎来新一轮生产扩张。另外，10月底以来中美经贸紧张局势缓 和，将重新提振企业生产意愿。 在消费方面，报告显示，前三季度社会消费品零售总额累计同比增长4.5%，其中，三季度社零同比增 长3.5%。值得注意的是，服务消费表现维持较强韧性，前三季度服务零售额累计同比增长5.2%，好于 商品零售的4.6% ...

熊园、穆仁文（熊园 系国盛证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 事件：2025年10月新增人民币贷款2200亿，前值1.29万亿，预期4600亿，去年同期5000亿；新增社融8150亿，前值3.53万亿，预期1.53万亿，去年同期1.41 万亿；存量社融增速8.5%，前值8.7%；M2同比8.2%，预期8%，前值8.4%；M1同比6.2%，预期6.6%，前值7.2%。 核心观点：10月新增信贷、社融规模均低于预期，也低于季节性。结构上，居民部门再度转为"去杠杆"，短贷、中长期贷款同比均少增；企业部门信贷同 比转为多增，但票据冲量是主要贡献，政策性金融工具对企业信用扩张拉动效果暂未显现；政府债券对社融拖累明显，后续地方政府债券结存限额盘活 后，可能有所好转。整体看，需求不足的问题仍然突出。往后看，维持我们年度策略报告（《乘势而上—2026年经济与资产展望》）的观点：货币宽松还 是大方向，降准降息可期、节奏上"相机抉择"（我们预计2026年一季度之前大概率会降，旨在扭转经济下行态势、配合"十五五"抢开局），紧盯基本面的 变化。 1、整体看，新增信贷、社融规模均低于预期、也低于季节性，结构上也未有好转，居民 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年11月14日 [消费相对稳健，投资压力 Table_NewTitle] 抬升 ——国内观察：2025年10月经济数据 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 李嘉豪 S0630525100001 lijiah@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 宏 观 简 评 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [Table_Report] ➢ 事件：11月14日，国家统计局公布10月经济数据。10月社零总额当月同比2.9%，前值3.0%； 固投累计同比-1.7%，前值-0.5%；规上工业增加值同比4.9%，前值6.5%。 ➢ 核心观点：10月投资继续下滑，政策性金融工具的投放到实物工作量的形成存在时滞，基 建相对而言降幅收窄的可能性更大一些，制造业在结构调整下保持一定比重仍需政策加 码，地产基数的压力如期体现。消费方面，剔除汽车来看整体仍然稳健，去年国补开启抬 升了基数 ...

Core Insights - The impact of the newly introduced 500 billion yuan policy financial tools has not yet fully materialized, but it is expected to gradually improve the medium to long-term loan sentiment for enterprises [1][10] - In October, new RMB loans increased by 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan, while social financing saw a negative change of -201 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown in credit issuance [1][11] Group 1: Credit Market Overview - The decline in credit issuance is attributed to seasonal factors and structural changes in the economy, compounded by a weak real estate cycle and the impact of local and corporate debt replacement loans [1][9] - The credit structure shows characteristics of "supporting corporate loans, weak household loans, and increased bill financing" [1][6] Group 2: Household Loans - Household loans were the main drag on the overall credit growth in October, with a decrease of 360.4 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year reduction of 520.4 billion yuan [2][4] - Both short-term and medium to long-term household loans faced pressure, reflecting weak consumer and housing demand [2][4] Group 3: Corporate Loans - Corporate loans continued to act as a "stabilizing force" in the overall credit landscape, with new loans to enterprises increasing by 350 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 220 billion yuan [6][8] - The short-term loans for enterprises decreased by 190 billion yuan, while bill financing saw a significant increase of 500.6 billion yuan, indicating a divergence in loan types [6][7] Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market remains relatively weak, with a slight increase in new residential prices and a decline in second-hand residential prices, reflecting a cautious sentiment among homebuyers [4][5] - The willingness of residents to purchase homes has decreased, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, where confidence has dropped significantly [4][5] Group 5: Future Outlook - The gradual implementation of the 500 billion yuan policy financial tools is expected to support over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, which may lead to a marginal improvement in corporate loan sentiment [10][11] - The future expansion of credit is likely to focus on policy financial tools, loans related to new economic drivers, and the continued role of corporate loans in stabilizing the credit market [10][11]