以下文章来源于泽平宏观展望 ，作者泽平宏观 泽平宏观展望 . 科学专业的财经，实战经济学 文： 泽平宏观团队 2024 年 9 月下旬以来，力度空前的宏观政策点燃了 A 股和港股 " 信心牛 " 行情，一轮 波澜壮阔的牛市启动。 我在去年市场信心低谷的时候，率先旗帜鲜明看多，提出 "信心牛"和"东升西落"。 最近我复盘了 A 股历史上的三次大牛市， 1999-2001 年的 519 行情、 2005-2007 年的周期牛、 2014-2015 年的改革牛和水牛，寻找牛市运行的规律，帮助大家看清本轮牛 市的来龙去脉。 通过复盘三轮大牛市，我有七大发现： 一是 A 股大牛市启动需要三大条件，政策转向、资金流入、估值低位， 最初充满争议， 伴随估值逐渐修复，投资者的热情被点燃后开启牛市。牛市总是在绝望中重生，争议中上 涨，狂欢中崩盘。 二是 A 股牛市一般经历三个阶段，政策驱动 - 资金驱动 - 基本面驱动， 牛市启动初期 与经济基本面关联较小，但牛市的持续上涨与经济基本面有关，若无基本面和企业盈利支 撑，则终究会回吐涨幅。 三是 A 股政策市和散户为主的特征导致牛短熊长，大起大落， 三轮大牛市平均持续时长 为 1 ...

Group 1 - The media sector has shown a significant upward trend in performance, with a year-to-date increase of 24.36% in the Shenwan Media Index, outperforming the CSI 300 by 10.35% [3][76] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the media sector achieved a total revenue of 387.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 32.1 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 5.41% and 37.18% respectively [3][16] - The current TTM-PE for the Shenwan Media Index is 44x, which is at the 80th percentile of the past five years, indicating a recovery in valuation [3][76] Group 2 - The gaming sector has benefited from a strong product cycle, with Q3 2025 revenues reaching 30.4 billion yuan and net profits of 4.6 billion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 28.60% and 111.65% respectively [4][29] - The popularity of collectible toys and IP-based products remains high, with the domestic market for IP economy projected to grow from 94.1 billion yuan in 2022 to 240.6 billion yuan by 2025, maintaining a growth rate of over 10% [112][118] Group 3 - The shift in policy direction is expected to positively impact the entertainment content industry, with ongoing improvements in content supply likely to stimulate demand recovery [5][127] - AI applications are rapidly penetrating the entertainment content industry, enhancing efficiency and return on investment in content production, thus creating new opportunities [5][127] Group 4 - Investment recommendations focus on sectors with strong growth potential, particularly in gaming and AI-driven content creation, with specific companies highlighted for their promising performance [6][111] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring product cycles and performance trends in the gaming sector, recommending companies such as Giant Network and 37 Interactive Entertainment [6][111]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant decline in property prices of old and dilapidated neighborhoods in Wuhan, Qingdao, Dongguan, and Ningbo, contrasting with the relatively stable prices in Beijing and Shanghai due to school district factors [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Property prices in old neighborhoods of Wuhan, Qingdao, Dongguan, and Ningbo have dropped to new lows, indicating a severe market downturn [1] - These cities are not traditional price basements, suggesting that the decline is driven by specific local factors rather than general market conditions [1] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The decline in property prices is attributed to a combination of policy shifts, urban expansion, and changes in population structure, which have collectively diminished the competitiveness of these old neighborhoods [1] - The lack of competitiveness has forced property owners to resort to price reductions as a primary strategy to attract buyers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market reflects a stark contrast between high-priced urban areas and low-priced regions, highlighting a significant divide in housing affordability and demand dynamics [1][3]. Population Structure - The primary demographic supporting the housing market, individuals aged 25-44, has decreased from 40.2% in 2010 to 31.8% currently, with a continued decline expected over the next decade [4]. - The population of the post-90s and post-00s generations is 120 million less than that of the post-80s generation, facing challenges such as slowing income growth and historically low marriage rates [4]. - The aging population, with over 310 million individuals aged 60 and above, exacerbates demand shrinkage, leading to increased housing supply due to vacant homes left by deceased elderly individuals [4]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - Over the past two decades, developers have constructed 600 million housing units, sufficient for 3 billion people, while China's population is only 1.4 billion, indicating a surplus of over 100% [6]. - The planned construction of 6 million affordable housing units by 2025 will further pressure the market for commercial housing [6]. - High inventory levels are evident, with 760 million square meters of unsold commercial housing in third and fourth-tier cities, leading to aggressive pricing strategies by developers [6]. Policy Shift - The government is shifting its focus towards affordable housing, planning to build 6 million units over five years, which will divert demand from the commercial housing market [8]. - Financial leverage is tightening, with first-time home loan rates dropping to a historical low of 3.05%, but lending standards becoming stricter, effectively closing off speculative avenues for investors [9]. - The introduction of a property tax trial is anticipated, which will increase holding costs and further diminish the investment appeal of real estate [9]. Urban Differentiation - The real estate market is experiencing irreversible differentiation, with core areas in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen seeing slight price increases due to their scarcity and high demand [11]. - Conversely, non-core cities are facing significant price declines, with some areas experiencing a drop of up to 50% from peak values, primarily due to population outflows [11]. - This differentiation indicates a shift from the era of guaranteed profits in real estate to a more selective approach in choosing cities and locations for investment [11]. Conclusion - The debate surrounding the rationalization of housing prices raises questions about whether real estate can still symbolize wealth as it loses its financial attributes, prompting a potential shift towards viewing housing primarily as a necessity rather than an investment [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent statements indicate a potential shift in monetary policy, suggesting the end of the liquidity contraction cycle and a high probability of interest rate cuts, which has heightened interest in dollar-pegged leveraged trading in the cryptocurrency market [1][3][8] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Impact - Powell's remarks signal a turning point in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October as of October 15 [3] - The end of the balance sheet reduction is interpreted as a clear signal for the conclusion of the liquidity contraction cycle, which is expected to lead to increased demand for dollar-pegged leveraged trading [3][6] - The recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market, including a record liquidation event, has further amplified the demand for dollar-pegged leverage as investors seek to hedge risks [3][4] Group 2: Technological Advancements in Trading Platforms - Leading decentralized exchanges are adopting "cross-chain liquidity aggregation" technology to address issues of high slippage and slow order execution, enhancing their service capabilities for dollar-pegged leveraged trading [4] - XBIT has differentiated itself by integrating multiple protocol trading depths, achieving slippage rates as low as 0.02%, which meets the demand for low slippage and fast execution in dollar-pegged leveraged trading [4] - The platform has also strengthened its risk control systems, utilizing AI to monitor price fluctuations and reduce the risk of liquidation in leveraged trading [4][6] Group 3: Challenges and Regulatory Landscape - Despite the positive signals for dollar-pegged leveraged trading, the market faces challenges such as macroeconomic uncertainties and regulatory fragmentation across different regions [6][8] - The recent imposition of tariffs has highlighted the need for robust risk management capabilities in leveraged trading, as seen in the significant drop in Bitcoin prices due to tariff threats [6] - Regulatory uncertainty remains a concern, with varying attitudes towards stablecoins and leveraged trading across global markets, which could lead to compliance costs and operational risks for platforms [6][8] Group 4: Future Outlook and Growth Potential - As the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting approaches, expectations for interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction are likely to sustain high interest in dollar-pegged leveraged trading [8] - If the Fed proceeds with its anticipated actions, the scale of dollar-pegged leveraged trading could potentially double within the next 6-12 months [8] - XBIT's practices in technology evolution, compliance, and market expansion may serve as a reference for standardizing and globalizing the dollar-pegged leveraged trading ecosystem [8]

Group 1 - The US dollar index showed a rebound of 0.2%, reaching around 97.9 during early Asian trading hours [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell signaled a dovish stance at the annual economic policy seminar, suggesting a likely rate cut in September, which led to a 1.2% drop in the USD/EUR exchange rate, hitting a four-week low [3] - Market expectations indicate an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, a 22% increase from the beginning of the month [3] Group 2 - Emerging market bond funds saw a net inflow of $4.7 billion in the first three weeks of August, with Chinese government bonds receiving $1.2 billion, marking the highest monthly allocation [4] - The yield curve in the Eurozone steepened, with the spread between German and US ten-year government bond yields widening to 140 basis points, the highest since Q4 2023, indirectly supporting the strength of the euro [3] - Retail trader sentiment indicators show a current dollar long-to-short position ratio of 1:1.3, the lowest level for this period in three years, indicating a gradual withdrawal of retail investors from dollar assets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by the Bank of Japan's hawkish signals and the high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a strengthening of the Japanese yen [1] Group 1: Currency Movements - As of August 18, the USD/JPY is trading around 147, with a current quote of 147.50, reflecting a 0.22% increase from the previous close of 147.18 [1] - The USD/JPY is at a critical technical level, with support seen at 147.10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 145.80-146.00 (50-day and 100-day moving averages) [1] - Resistance levels are identified at 147.90 (21-day moving average) and the 149.40-149.50 range (200-day moving average and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 2025 high/low) [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan's July policy meeting indicated a hawkish stance, raising inflation expectations and keeping the option for rate hikes within the year [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary criticized the Bank of Japan for its "policy lag," urging for rate hikes to combat inflation pressures [1] - Market analysis suggests that Japan's weak consumer recovery and potential U.S. tariffs on Japanese automobiles may lead the Bank of Japan to maintain a cautious approach [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 93.8% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, impacting the USD/JPY dynamics [1] - The market is currently assessing the interplay between the normalization of Japanese monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's policy shift [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September are rising, which, combined with weak economic data and potential policy shifts, is expected to significantly boost gold prices [3] - A rate cut will lower the dollar and real interest rates, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset, while economic uncertainty and potential stagflation risks will further increase safe-haven demand [3] - If the Federal Reserve cuts rates more than expected, gold prices may enter a new upward trend; however, if the policy measures fall short of expectations, a short-term technical correction may occur [3] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a slight rebound, reaching a peak of $3370 per ounce before closing at $3355.90, with a gain of 0.24% [1] - The current trading price of gold is around $3365 per ounce, with a focus on a potential target of $3378, and a strategy of low buying is recommended [5] - The analysis suggests that if gold breaks above $3378, it could continue to rise towards $3385, while a protective stop is advised at $3355 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in gold prices triggered by a double top pattern, leading to a wave of stop-loss orders and a shift in policy that may further impact prices [1] Group 1: Technical Analysis - A double top pattern has been identified, indicating a potential reversal in the upward trend of gold prices [1] - The technical breakdown has resulted in significant stop-loss orders being triggered, exacerbating the decline in prices [1] Group 2: Policy Shift - There is a noted shift in policy that could influence market dynamics and contribute to the ongoing decrease in gold prices [1] - The combination of technical factors and policy changes raises questions about the future trajectory of gold prices [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. bond market is currently influenced by uncertainties surrounding trade policies, leading to a re-evaluation of risk by investors [1][3] - The 10-year Treasury yield has returned to levels seen a month ago, indicating a "mean reversion" that masks deeper market anxieties related to trade negotiations [3][4] - The recent comments from President Trump regarding tariffs on foreign films have added complexity to the already tense trade discussions, making it difficult for the market to establish a coherent narrative [3][4] Group 2 - The market is experiencing a chain reaction due to policy uncertainties, as evidenced by the decline in U.S. stock indices, ending a nine-day streak of gains for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming two-day meeting is anticipated to maintain short-term interest rates in the 4.25%-4.5% range, but there is a notable expectation for a rate cut by December, reflecting a tension between market expectations and reality [3][4] - The long-end yield movements suggest a shift in market logic, as the 10-year Treasury yield is becoming a reflection of trade policies, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical tensions rather than being directly controlled by the Federal Reserve [4][5] Group 3 - The upcoming supply of U.S. Treasuries, including $42 billion in 10-year notes and $25 billion in 30-year notes, will test market resilience amid growing concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies and geopolitical risks [4][5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is seen as a "preventive tax" on global capital flows, exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's inaction, leading to market pain during this policy vacuum [5] - The ongoing tensions in global trade and financial pricing mechanisms are creating a fragile balance that could be disrupted, posing challenges for modern financial markets in the face of de-globalization [5]