Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the commodity market, highlighting the impact of market sentiment and policy changes on investment strategies, particularly in the context of CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) strategies [5][23]. Market Environment - The commodity market experienced a reversal due to various factors, including liquidity conditions and economic recovery expectations, leading to a significant price drop in some commodities, with weekly declines reaching up to 20% [5][6]. - The market's recent downturn is seen as a correction of expectations returning to reality, despite underlying support from liquidity and economic factors [5][6]. Investment Strategies - Several CTA strategies are analyzed, showcasing their diverse approaches to capturing market opportunities while managing risks [8][20]. - Strategy A employs a multi-strategy approach with a focus on traditional trend-following and fundamental analysis, maintaining a diversified portfolio across approximately 40 commodities, stock indices, and treasury futures [8][10]. - Strategy B utilizes high-frequency trading with a focus on short-term opportunities, achieving an annualized return of 14.68% since its inception, although it faced challenges in the current low-volatility environment [14][15][17]. - Strategy C, a well-established player, has shown resilience with a 10.2% annualized return since 2017, maintaining a diversified portfolio across over 60 trading instruments [20][21]. Performance Metrics - Strategy A reported an annualized return of 15.73% since March 2023, with a maximum drawdown of 11.52% [12]. - Strategy B's performance was impacted by market conditions, resulting in a return of less than 1% year-to-date, with a recent drawdown of 3.62% due to market reversals [17][18]. - Strategy C achieved an 8.06% return in the current year, demonstrating strong performance amidst market fluctuations [21]. Conclusion - The article concludes that the recent commodity market reversal was primarily driven by emotional trading rather than policy changes, emphasizing the importance of market sentiment in shaping investment outcomes [23].

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI stands at 50.8%, indicating a slight recovery, with the new orders index rising to 51.2%, suggesting ongoing demand [3] - There is a significant disparity between large enterprises (PMI at 52.1%) and small enterprises (PMI at 49.3%), highlighting the lack of policy support for smaller firms [3] - The non-manufacturing PMI is at 54.5%, driven by strong performance in tourism and film sectors, while real estate sales remain weak, indicating a divergence in market sentiment [3] Group 2 - The "production and business expectations index" in the manufacturing PMI has surged to 57.3%, the highest this year, reflecting strong corporate confidence despite delayed policy implementation [4] - The technology sector shows promising growth potential, with significant investments from major companies like Google and Microsoft, and a high pre-announcement growth rate exceeding 60% for mid-year reports [4] - High dividend stocks, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China with a 5.7% dividend yield, are attracting investment in a volatile market, emphasizing the importance of cash flow [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the performance of fixed-income public funds in Q2 2025, highlighting a recovery in net asset values for pure bond funds after a turbulent period in April and May, with REITs and convertible bond funds leading the performance [8][12]. - As of the end of Q2 2025, passive index bond funds experienced significant inflows, indicating a strong growth trend in fund sizes [12]. - The overall leverage of funds showed an upward trend by the end of June 2025 compared to March 2025, suggesting increased risk-taking among fund managers [15]. Group 2 - The article notes that the duration of pure bond funds has generally increased, indicating a shift towards longer-term investments [20]. - The allocation of convertible bonds remained stable compared to the previous quarter, while stock allocations across various fund types showed a declining trend [26]. - The report identifies the top sectors for active increases in holdings, including non-bank financials, banks, telecommunications, electronics, and pharmaceuticals, while sectors like food and beverage, automotive, coal, and household appliances saw reductions [38]. Group 3 - The top ten holdings by market value in Q2 2025 included companies such as Changqing Mining, Tencent Holdings, and Longjiang Power, with significant investments in sectors like non-ferrous metals and public utilities [42]. - The report highlights the changes in holdings, with notable increases in positions for stocks like Xinyi Semiconductor and Zhongji Xuchuang, while reductions were observed in stocks like Wuliangye and Midea Group [51][52]. - The article emphasizes the cautious outlook of fund managers for the bond market, with expectations of continued volatility and a focus on maintaining liquidity and flexibility in asset allocation strategies [58][62].

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a rise in credit bond issuance, with a total issuance of 13,687.12 billion yuan in June, an increase of 5,283.58 billion yuan from the previous month, and a net financing amount of 2,559.96 billion yuan, up by 2,055.38 billion yuan [39][40][51] - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7, indicating a slight recovery, with the new orders index returning to the expansion zone at 50.2, suggesting improvements in consumer demand due to policy support [27][51] - The first batch of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs is set to launch on July 7, which is expected to enhance the attractiveness of high-rated innovation bonds and provide investment opportunities [8][10] Group 2 - The overall bond yield is expected to remain low due to a weak economic recovery, with the central bank maintaining a loose monetary policy and potential increases in fiscal spending [7][8][51] - The credit risk in the bond market remains manageable, with a rolling default rate of 0.28% in June, and only one new default subject reported [15][19] - The average issuance rates for various credit bonds show mixed trends, with short-term and medium-term bonds experiencing rate fluctuations, while the overall market remains favorable for issuers due to low financing costs [10][39][40]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - The current thermal coal market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" phase, with short-term price stabilization supported by summer peak demand, but limited upside potential due to high inventory levels and regulatory easing [4][10] - Coking coal prices are stabilizing amid a rebound in total inventory, driven by downstream steel companies replenishing stocks of cost-effective coal types [4][24] - The equity market is primarily bullish, with the coal sector outperforming the index, as evidenced by a 1.60% weekly increase in the coal sector index [5][9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed an upward trend, with the coal sector outperforming the broader indices, as the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3497.22 points [5][9] - The average trading volume was 1.4 trillion yuan, with a daily financing amount fluctuating around 110 billion yuan [5] Thermal Coal - Upstream port inventories continue to decline, with daily coal consumption at power plants increasing due to rising temperatures [9][17] - The average daily coal inventory at power plants is approximately 35.82 million tons, with a daily consumption of 2.078 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase [18] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are experiencing mixed trends, with supply tightening due to safety inspections and environmental regulations [24][25] - The average utilization rate of coking coal mines is 84.4%, indicating a slight decrease in production capacity [24] Shipping Situation - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim has increased, with average daily shipping prices showing a downward trend [33][34] Industry News - In the first five months of 2025, Ningxia's coal production decreased by 3.0%, while sales increased by 6.1% [36] - The Indian government extended the import restrictions on low-ash metallurgical coke for an additional six months [37]

Report Overview - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The upper limit of the stock index is limited due to the decline in trading volume and the weak economic recovery in China. It is recommended to add positions after a pullback [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On July 7, the Wind All A index fluctuated after opening and rebounded in the afternoon, closing down 0.03%. Over 60% of individual stocks rose. Among the index spot, the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 closed down 0.43%, 0.33%, and 0.19% respectively, while the CSI 1000 closed up 0.24%, indicating better performance of small and medium - cap stocks. The performance of index futures was generally weaker than that of the spot [6] 1.2 Outlook - Externally, the 90 - day suspension period is about to end, and attention should be paid to the impact of US news on the market. The expectation of a rate cut in July has faded, and the market expects the rate - cut process to resume in September. Domestically, the economy is still in a weak recovery state, expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year. The export data in the first half showed resilience, but there is high uncertainty in the second half, which may drag down the economy. The real estate market is still at the bottom, and the manufacturing industry is facing intensified competition. Domestic economic growth requires further stimulation of domestic demand and accelerated implementation of infrastructure investment. Attention should also be paid to whether policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July [7] 2. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including domestic main index performance, market style performance, industry sector performance, trading volume of the Wind All A index, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, and statistics of major ETF fund shares and trading volume, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][16][17] 3. Industry News - On the morning of July 7, Trump announced on his social account that the US would start sending tariff letters and/or agreements to other countries at 12:00 noon EST (00:00 Beijing time on July 8). Trump signed tariff notice letters to 12 countries on Friday, outlining different tariff rates for goods exported to the US. The new tariff rates may range from 10% to 20%, up to 60% - 70% [30]

Group 1 - The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 50.4, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding market expectations, indicating a weak economic recovery trend [1] - The production index and new orders index have returned to the expansion zone, with the production index reaching a seven-month high [1] - The cautious procurement behavior of enterprises due to demand uncertainty and active destocking actions have kept the price index low, but overall economic recovery appears more certain [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration, and Ministry of Commerce announced a tax credit policy for foreign investors, allowing a 10% tax credit on profits reinvested in China for investments held for over five years from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2028 [2] - This policy aims to reduce tax burdens for foreign investors, enhance investment returns, and attract reinvestment in high-tech and green energy sectors [2] - The five-year holding requirement is expected to stabilize capital flows and reduce market volatility, complementing previous tax exemptions for foreign investments in domestic bond markets [2] Group 3 - The expansion of QDII quotas signals three key messages: promoting bilateral financial openness, alleviating one-way capital flow pressure, and guiding institutions in global asset allocation [3] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued new guidelines for listing companies, removing the 30% fundraising limit for companies classified as "light asset, high R&D input," enhancing financing flexibility for R&D-intensive firms [3] - This new regulation is expected to optimize capital market structure and direct more funds towards innovative sectors, particularly benefiting strategic emerging industries [3] Group 4 - On July 1, A-shares showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39% to 3457.75 points, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.24% to 2147.92 points [4] - The top-performing sectors included comprehensive, pharmaceutical, and banking, while computer, retail, and communication sectors experienced declines [4] - A total of 2551 stocks rose, while 2421 stocks fell, indicating a diverse market response [4] Group 5 - The market turnover was reported at 14967.62 billion, showing a decline from the previous trading day, while the margin financing balance increased to 18504.52 billion [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Today, the stock index rose after opening and then declined, indicating significant upward pressure. With a quiet news background and the domestic economy in a weak recovery, the stock index lacks sufficient positive drivers and is unlikely to break through the pressure line to form an upward trend. The latest data shows that the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size have turned negative year - on - year, affected by tariffs and prices, and also indicating insufficient effective demand. Amid weak economic data, expectations of supportive policies have increased, providing support for the stock index. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance from the Politburo meeting in July [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock indices showed mixed performance, with large - cap indices closing down and small - and medium - cap indices closing up. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 420.50 million yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH declined on increased volume, while IC and IM rose on increased volume [4]. Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that it will allocate the third batch of funds for the consumer goods trade - in program in July. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in May decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, and from January to May, they decreased by 1.1% [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see. The table shows the main contract's intraday percentage change, trading volume, trading volume change compared to the previous period, open interest, and open interest change compared to the previous period for IF, IH, IC, and IM [7]. Spot Market Observation - The table presents the Shanghai Composite Index's percentage change, Shenzhen Component Index's percentage change, the ratio of rising to falling stocks, the trading volume of the two markets, and the trading volume change compared to the previous period [8]. Other Data Presentations - There are charts showing the ratio of margin trading turnover to A - share trading turnover, cross - variety strength comparisons (IH/IC, IC/IM, IH/IM, IF/IH, IF/IM, IF/IC), volume - weighted average premium/discount rates and closing prices of various indices (IF, IH, IC, IM), and price - to - earnings ratios of various indices (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) [9][10][11][18]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing limited upward elasticity, and investors need to remain cautious due to internal and external pressures leading to short-term adjustments [3][11]. Market Performance - During the week of June 16-20, the A-share market showed a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.51% to close at 3360 points, and the Wind All A Index down by 1.07% [4]. - Among the 31 primary industries, only the banking and telecommunications sectors saw gains, while sectors like beauty care, textiles, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and social services faced significant declines [5]. - The Hong Kong market mirrored the A-share performance, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.52% and the Hang Seng Technology Index down 2.03% [5]. Economic Data and Trends - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a decline in fiscal revenue and expenditure for the first five months of the year, attributed to factors such as falling PPI and a slowdown in land sales [7][9]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 8.5%, while infrastructure investment was at 5.6%, contrasting with a 10.7% decline in real estate investment [9]. - Retail sales for the same period increased by 6.4%, driven by initiatives like trade-in programs and tourism [10]. External Influences - Ongoing international issues, including U.S.-China trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, are affecting investor sentiment and market performance [10]. - The upcoming policy window in July is critical, with expectations for potential tariff adjustments and trade discussions [10]. Future Outlook - Despite concerns over domestic demand resilience, there is a high expectation for policies to stabilize the capital market, suggesting that while short-term adjustments may occur, significant declines are unlikely [11]. - The combination of monetary and fiscal policies is essential for economic strength, with a potential fiscal stimulus expected post-August [13]. - In the current market environment, defensive stocks, particularly those with solid fundamentals in the new consumption sector, are favored, while technology stocks with performance metrics are also seen as attractive [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The stock index showed a slight oscillation today, with a minor increase in the trading volume of the two markets. Currently, there are significant overseas uncertainties, and the economic fundamentals are still in a weak recovery state. The impact of tariffs may persist, and the economic outlook is weak, which restricts the upward movement of the stock index. In the short term, there is significant resistance to the continuous upward movement of the index. However, the expectation of policy support has risen, and there is still sufficient support at the market bottom. Attention should be paid to the Lujiazui Forum from June 18th to 19th, where several financial policies will be announced. It is expected that the stock index will mainly oscillate within a range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The stock index showed mixed performance today, with small and medium - cap stock indexes closing higher and large - cap stock indexes closing lower. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 1.631 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IM increased in volume, while the other varieties increased in price with reduced volume [4]. Important Information - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative stated that China and the United States have basically reached an agreement framework. - The deadline for Trump's tariffs is approaching, and the EU is said to have refused to compromise and plans to postpone trade negotiations until after July. - There has been no tariff increase yet. The US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year in May, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling below expectations for the fourth consecutive month [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold and wait and see [7]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.21 | 0.08 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 8.3934 | 4.5745 | 6.7708 | 15.899 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 2.8191 | - 0.8228 | - 1.2832 | - 2.5693 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 23.5571 | 8.2865 | 21.6406 | 32.6593 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 1.5578 | - 0.1138 | - 0.2651 | 0.2007 | [7] Spot Market Observation | | Name | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.01 | | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 0.11 | | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.81 | | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 12717.69 | | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (100 million yuan) | 163.10 | [8]