转自：新华财经 美国劳工统计局表示，由于此前政府关门导致调查工作中断，无法量化该事件对10-11月就业数据收集 的具体影响。这一表述加剧了市场对数据代表性的担忧，也为解读就业市场真实状况增添了难度。 尽管11月新增就业超预期，但结合10月下跌、前期数据下修的情况，近四个月就业市场整体呈现降温态 势。尤其是私营部门就业增长的连贯性被打破，显示企业招聘意愿在经济不确定性下趋于谨慎。 10月零售销售额环比持平，略低于预期的0.1%增长，9月数据被向上修正至增长0.1%。剔除汽车经销商 和加油站后，核心销售额增长0.5%，超出预期的0.4%，凸显剔除波动因素后的消费实力。（剔除食品 服务、汽车、建材、加油站）环比增长0.8%，为四个月来最高，远超预期的0.4%，该数据直接纳入 GDP商品支出核算，对经济增长形成支撑。 13个零售类别中有8个实现增长，百货商店和在线零售商表现尤为强劲，主要受益于假日购物季前的竞 争性促销活动。汽车及零部件经销商销售额下降1.6%，电动汽车联邦税收优惠到期是重要原因；汽油 价格走低则直接压低加油站销售额。 在就业市场降温、经济预期分化的背景下，核心零售数据的强劲表现表明，美国消费者需求并 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in the Shanghai Composite Index and the implications of Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on global capital markets, highlighting the importance of market support and resistance levels [1][6][11]. Market Overview - In November 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.60 points, down 1.67% from the end of October 2025, with an average daily trading volume of 806.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 16% [6][10]. - The highest point for the Shanghai Composite Index in November was 4034.08 points, while the lowest was 3816.58 points, aligning with expectations [9][10]. - The CSI 300 Index remained flat in October, with an average daily trading volume of 463.8 billion yuan, down 26.1% [6][10]. Federal Reserve Influence - The anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has significantly influenced global capital market trends, with market expectations for a rate cut rising to nearly 70% following dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams [6][11]. Equity Risk Premium - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 Index rose to 5.74 at the end of October, indicating a decrease in investor risk appetite, marking a second consecutive month of increase [7][13]. Market Profitability - In November, the number of stocks with gains exceeding 20% decreased to 218, an 8% decline, indicating a return to a more stagnant market environment [7][15]. - The number of stocks with gains over 50% increased, suggesting that while overall profitability is declining, specific sectors may be experiencing stronger performance [7][15]. Trading Volume and Price Relationship - The average daily trading volume fell for the second consecutive month to 1914.7 billion yuan, down 11.5% from October, reflecting a typical correlation between trading volume and market price movements [7][17]. Price Movement Analysis - The current market rally has not yet reached the average growth levels seen in previous major uptrends, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experiencing significant price adjustments [8][19]. - Historical data indicates that the average price increase for stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange during uptrends is approximately 115% over 30 months, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange sees an average increase of 172% over 29 months [8][19]. Index Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently facing resistance after a downward adjustment in November, having broken below the 60-day moving average, with key support now at the levels established in 2021 [6][21]. - The CSI 300 Index also showed significant adjustments in November, with two downward gaps and a breach of the 60-day moving average, indicating potential challenges ahead [6][24].

美联储 12 月降息预期升温 —— 宏观周报（12 月 1 日-12 月 5 日） 2025 证 12 证 7 证 （2）PPI：原油、有色价格走高，黑色系商品表现分化。 证证 12 证 06 证证 WTI 证证证证 2.61% 证证证证证证证证 0.87% 证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证 证证证证证证证 分析师 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zhangdi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 詹璐 证0755-8345-3719 证zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130522110001 吕雷 证010-8092 -7780 证lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524080002 赵红蕾 证010-8092 -7606 证zhaohonglei _yj@chinastock.com.c n 证证证证证证证证S0130524060005 铁伟奥 证136-8324 -0373 证tieweiao_yj@chinas ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a general pullback on December 4, while the non-ferrous metal sector continued to rise, with the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) surging over 2% and attracting significant net subscriptions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector showed resilience, with key stocks like Xiyang Co., Western Mining, and Huaxi Nonferrous rising over 5% [1] - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) saw a net subscription of 1.8 million units, marking three consecutive days of net inflow [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have increased, with an 80.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut, which has positively impacted the prices of industrial metals like copper and aluminum [1] - Chile's state-owned copper company has set a historical high for copper premiums offered to U.S. customers, alongside frequent disruptions in global copper supply, leading to a rapid increase in LME copper prices [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - Guosen Securities noted that the non-ferrous metal industry remains relatively stable, with slight price increases for copper and aluminum, while inventory levels remain high, indicating strong resilience [1] - The black metal smelting sector has established a replenishment trend, with narrowing price declines contributing to a recovery in industry prosperity [1] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) and its connected fund (017140) passively track the CSI Non-Ferrous Index, which covers copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option compared to single metal investments [1]

Core Points - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has strengthened, with a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point reduction [1] - The U.S. labor market has shown a greater-than-expected cooling, with November ADP employment numbers decreasing by 32,000, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [1] - The mining ETF (561330) has risen over 1.4%, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the mining sector [1] Mining Sector Analysis - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metals index (931892), which includes companies involved in the development of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals [1] - As of December 4, 2025, the mining ETF (561330) has outperformed the CSI Non-Ferrous Index by over 10%, indicating a more concentrated leadership and a higher proportion of "gold, copper, and rare earths" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a notable decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling below the 26,000-point mark, influenced by internal policy focus and expectations for a year-end rally [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.44%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.51% [1] - Popular ETFs such as the Hang Seng ETF (159920) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF (159850) also saw slight declines of around 0.5% [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The market is shifting focus from external factors to internal policies, particularly looking forward to the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to be further detailed, setting the tone for fiscal measures leading up to 2026 [1] Group 3: Global Economic Influences - The U.S. labor market showed significant cooling in September, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [1] - Expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have increased, which may improve market sentiment in Hong Kong [1] - A decrease in global risk-free interest rates is anticipated to release more liquidity, potentially attracting overseas funds back to the Hong Kong market [1] - The decline of the U.S. dollar index is expected to support the appreciation of the Renminbi, benefiting Hong Kong's Renminbi-denominated assets [1] Group 4: Notable Investment Targets - Key investment targets include the core broad-based Hang Seng ETF (159920), the AI and platform economy-focused Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180), and the Hang Seng China Enterprises ETF (159850) [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened positively on December 1, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.67% to surpass the 26,000-point mark, while the National Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 0.47% and 0.82% respectively, indicating overall stable market sentiment [1][3]. Sector Performance - Major technology stocks experienced upward trends, with NetEase rising nearly 4%, Alibaba increasing over 2%, and Baidu and Tencent both gaining over 1.3%. JD.com saw a slight increase of 0.52%, while Meituan fell nearly 3% [3]. - The commodities sector saw significant gains, driven by rising copper and silver prices, with China Silver Group surging by 14% and China Nonferrous Mining rising over 10%. China Gold International and Jiangxi Copper also showed strong performance [3]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached a nearly two-year high, leading to expanded gains in port shipping stocks in the afternoon session [3]. Emerging Trends - The People's Bank of China made a significant move to stabilize digital currencies, which negatively impacted cryptocurrency-related stocks, while new consumption concepts, biomedicine stocks, and insurance stocks saw some declines. Notable stocks like Pop Mart and Mixue Group also experienced downturns [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The weak U.S. employment performance has increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Copper Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 87,430, with a trading volume of 94,508 lots, an open interest of 218,257 lots, and an inventory of 35,244 tons. The price increased by 440 compared to the previous day, the trading volume decreased by 810 lots, the open interest increased by 7,573 lots, and the inventory decreased by 629 tons [3] - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic disk) on November 28, 2025, was 11,175.5, up 245.5 from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 44.69, up 28.13 from the previous day, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 195, up 28.75 from the previous day [3] - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on November 28, 2025, was 5.278, up 0.17 from November 25. The total inventory was 418,727, an increase of 2,847 from November 25 [3] 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November decreased month - on - month [3] - **Demand Side**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods decreased, and that of recycled copper rods remained flat. High copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing willingness [3] - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased compared to last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper increased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased [3] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Short - term, lightly - position, and try to go long on the main contract at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 85,000 and the pressure levels around 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 10,100 - 10,500 and the pressure level around 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper, and the support level around 4.8 - 5.0 and the pressure level around 5.5 - 6.0 for U.S. copper [3]

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment in Asia continues to follow last week's risk appetite, driven by rising expectations for interest rate cuts, which puts pressure on the US dollar [1][3] - Gold remains stable above $4230, benefiting from lower holding costs amid expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with the implied probability rising to 87% from 71% [1][3] - The positive signs in US-Ukrainian peace talks may temper safe-haven demand for gold, potentially limiting further price increases in the short term [1] Group 2 - The British pound/USD is consolidating around 1.3245, supported by the UK autumn budget announcement and an upward revision of growth expectations to 1.5% by the Office for Budget Responsibility [2] - The euro/USD continues its upward trend, surpassing the 1.1600 mark, with market focus on breaking the key 200-day moving average, supported by a weaker dollar and stable European Central Bank policies [2] - The overall foreign exchange market remains robust, with major currency pairs showing potential for upward movement if the dollar lacks rebound strength [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The weak employment performance in the US has increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 87,430 yuan, up 440 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 94,508 lots, down 810 lots; open interest was 218,257 lots, up 7,573 lots; inventory was 35,244 tons, down 629 tons [3]. - **London Copper**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was $11,175.5, up $245.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was $44.69, up $28.13; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was $195, up $28.75 [3]. - **COMEX Copper**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was $5.278, up $0.17 from the previous day; total inventory was 418,727 tons, up 2,847 tons [3]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, resulting in a continuous negative China copper concentrate import index, leading to a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Scrap copper supply has increased, and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper enameled strip, copper tube, and brass rod increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod decreased, and that of recycled copper rod remained flat. Higher copper prices have curbed downstream purchasing意愿 [3]. 3.3 Inventory Situation - China's electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared to last week, while LME electrolytic copper inventory and COMEX copper inventory increased [3]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Short - term traders can lightly go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support level around 83,000 - 85,000 yuan and the resistance levels around 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 yuan for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,100 - 10,500 for London copper and 12,300 - 13,500; and the support level around 4.8 - 5.0 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [3].