（本文原标题为 世界汽车工程师学会联合会（FISITA）终身名誉主席，清华大学教授、汽车产业与技术战略研究院（TASRI）院长赵福全：抓住"新 汽车"机遇进行战略布局） "'新汽车'是移动的空间、互联的节点、数据的载体、计算的单元、智能的终端、储/供能的装置，也是创新的载体和战略性新兴产业。未来汽车将是 继互联网时代的手机之后万物互联时代最大的'母生态'，同时也是新质生产力、新型工业化最大的抓手。"近日，在第二十届中国经济论坛平行论坛 ——"展望'十五五' 巩固车优势"现场，世界汽车工程师学会联合会（FISITA）终身名誉主席，清华大学教授、汽车产业与技术战略研究院（TASRI）院长 赵福全在主旨发言中分享了一系列新思考、新观点。 身处历史巨变的拐点 "站在历史巨变的拐点上，人类社会正在发生翻天覆地的变化；'十五五'将是一个继往开来、承前启后的重要时期。"赵福全谈道，面对百年未有之大 变局，汽车产业需要再盘点、再出发，重新进行战略布局。 "新汽车"时代将迎来革命性变革 人工智能（AI）正在给汽车产业带来一场史无前例的重大变革。 赵福全认为，汽车制造业作为现代工业"皇冠上的明珠"，在拥抱AI的大背景下，正加快进 ...

Market Overview - A and H shares continued to be negatively impacted by the Federal Reserve's lower-than-expected interest rate cuts, with significant declines in sectors such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals [1] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90%, Shenzhen Component Index down 5.13%, and ChiNext Index down 6.15% [3] - Defensive sectors like banking, media, food and beverage, and defense showed relative resilience, while sectors like power equipment, basic chemicals, and steel experienced significant declines [1][3] Industry Dynamics - The pharmaceutical industry index fell 6.88%, with sub-sectors like chemical pharmaceuticals and bioproducts declining by 7.02% and 7.46% respectively [5] - Eli Lilly became the first global healthcare company to reach a market capitalization of $1 trillion, driven by its GLP-1 weight loss drug contributing 55% of its revenue [7] - Moderna announced the termination of three mRNA projects and secured a $15 billion loan, focusing future efforts on oncology and rare diseases [7] - Innovative drug companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics reported significant revenue growth, with BeiGene's global revenue reaching $1 billion, up 51% year-on-year [8] Technology Sector - The technology sector faced significant adjustments, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping 7.18% [10] - Nvidia reported Q3 revenue of $57 billion, exceeding expectations, with data center revenue of $51.2 billion, up 66% year-on-year [17] - Google launched the Gemini 3 model, achieving breakthroughs in multi-modal understanding and reasoning capabilities, surpassing competitors [12] - Alibaba's AI application "Qianwen" quickly rose to the fourth position in the App Store rankings, aiming to become a personal AI assistant [13] Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are focusing on technological transformation and de-globalization, with an emphasis on AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [3] - The market is expected to enter a bottoming phase after two weeks of significant adjustments, with a long-term view of a structural bull market [1][3] - The focus is on identifying undervalued technology players within the overseas supply chain [2]

2025 年 11 月 21 日星期五 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 20 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 23 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.21%报 115.870 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 108.485 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 105.935 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.462 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，11 月 20 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3000 亿元 7 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions due to their own supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external market environments [5]. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a decline in treasury bond futures. With the current macro - economic situation and market conditions, there is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, and caution is advised [5]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day showed mixed performance. Given the current domestic economic situation, market sentiment, and external factors, the risk of a significant decline is low, and investors can choose the right time to go long [7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day witnessed price increases. Considering the global trade and financial environment, central bank actions, and the current price level, it is advisable to wait and see for a long - position opportunity [10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Affected by macro - economic factors and supply - demand relationships, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [47]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Alumina supply is relatively loose, and aluminum needs to beware of seasonal consumption pressure and profit - taking, with a possible phased correction [49]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day remained flat. With tight supply of zinc concentrates and weak downstream demand, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [52]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Due to supply and demand factors, lead prices are expected to operate within a range [54]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. With tight supply and certain demand support, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [56]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day had an increase. Facing supply - demand contradictions, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [58]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Considering supply - demand relationships and technical aspects, prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With a weak supply - demand pattern and technical resistance, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day had a significant decline. Based on supply - demand changes and technical analysis, there may be a short - term correction, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during the correction [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day had a decline. With high - level production decline, weak demand recovery, and cost support, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels [18]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day had an upward trend. Considering supply - demand factors and market news, there are concerns about supply surplus, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities in the short - term [20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With mixed supply - demand factors, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [23][24]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With improved downstream demand in some areas, investors can focus on long - position opportunities [26]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and supply changes [28]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With supply and demand factors, there is still room for short - term price increases, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities [31]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day had a decline. With an oversupply situation, attention should be paid to supply - side changes [33]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. It is expected that the market will decline slightly in the next period, but the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day had an increase. With improved short - term supply - demand structure, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and investors can participate in the range [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day had an increase. With low processing fees, low inventory, and cost factors, it is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and caution is needed [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day had a decline. With increased supply and inventory, it is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to inventory and supply changes [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With high - level supply, stable demand, and enhanced cost - driving, it is expected to fluctuate with costs [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day had an increase. With raw material price support and stable supply and demand, it is expected to follow cost fluctuations [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day had a significant increase. With strong supply and demand, inventory is being depleted, and attention should be paid to consumption sustainability [45]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day had different performances. With sufficient soybean supply and improved demand for soybean oil, investors can focus on long - position opportunities for soybean oil and consider exiting long positions for soybean meal [59]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day had an increase. Affected by supply - demand factors, investors can consider long - position opportunities during corrections [61]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day had a decline. With supply - demand and external factors, investors can consider a long - position strategy for rapeseed oil [63]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With increased global and US production and inventory, and domestic supply and demand factors, cotton prices are expected to be weak [66]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day had a decline. With global production expectations and domestic supply pressure, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [70]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day had a high - level volatile operation. With current inventory and market conditions, apple prices are expected to operate strongly [74]. - **Pigs**: The previous trading day had a price increase. With sufficient supply and uncertain demand, investors can consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day had a price decline. With high - level supply and weak demand, investors can consider closing short positions gradually [79]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day had an increase. With new - season corn supply pressure and inventory factors, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and starch may follow the corn market [81].

Group 1: Japan's Economic Outlook - Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached a 17-year high of 1.765%, driven by expectations of significant fiscal spending under Prime Minister Kishida [2] - The 40-year bond yield hit a historical peak of 3.695%, while the 20-year yield reached 2.815%, marking the highest levels since 1999 [2] - The anticipated fiscal expansion is expected to lead to increased government borrowing, contributing to the sell-off in Japanese bonds [2] Group 2: French Investment in China - Approximately 2,800 French companies have established operations in China, making France the largest European investor in the Chinese market [3] - China is the fourth-largest trading partner for France, with French investments in China accounting for one-third of the total [3] - The "France 2030" investment plan aims to inject €54 billion over five years to promote re-industrialization, benefiting foreign investors [3] Group 3: Xiaomi's Financial Performance - Xiaomi reported a total revenue of 113.1 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, with adjusted net profit rising 80.9% to 11.3 billion yuan [7] - The smart electric vehicle and AI segment achieved a record revenue of 29 billion yuan, growing 199.2% year-on-year, marking its first profitable quarter [7] - The smartphone and AIoT segments showed modest growth, with challenges anticipated in the automotive sector due to reduced subsidies and increased competition [7] Group 4: Pinduoduo's Revenue Growth - Pinduoduo's Q3 revenue reached 108.28 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% year-on-year growth, with net profit increasing 17% to 29.33 billion yuan [8] - The growth was primarily driven by online marketing services and transaction service revenues, although the pace of growth has slowed [8] - Increased R&D expenses, up 41% year-on-year to 4.33 billion yuan, are aimed at enhancing the company's competitive edge in AI and overseas markets [8][9] Group 5: Baidu's AI Business Performance - Baidu's total revenue for Q3 was 31.2 billion yuan, a 7% decline, while net profit fell 36% to 3.77 billion yuan [10] - The AI business saw over 50% growth, with AI cloud revenue up 33% and AI native marketing services skyrocketing 262% to 2.8 billion yuan [10] - Despite the decline in traditional advertising revenue, Baidu's AI initiatives are showing promise, although profitability remains a concern [10][11] Group 6: Nvidia and Microsoft's Investment in Anthropic - Nvidia and Microsoft announced a collaboration with Anthropic, involving investments of up to $100 billion and $50 billion, respectively [12] - Anthropic plans to purchase $30 billion worth of Azure cloud capacity, indicating strong demand for AI services [12] - The investment cycle raises concerns about potential financial losses if AI products do not generate sufficient returns, despite ongoing advancements in AI technology [13]

一、行情回顾 沪指全天窄幅震荡，创业板指冲高回落。水产股集体大涨，獐子岛、大湖股份等多股涨停。黄金股午后拉升，深中华A涨停，中金黄金触及涨停。军工板块 表现活跃，江龙船艇、中船防务等涨停。下跌方面，福建、海南等近期热门板块下挫，海马汽车、三木集团等跌停。指数黄白二线分化，个股跌多涨少，沪 深京三市超4200股飘绿，今日成交1.74万亿。 二、当日热点 1.水产养殖 | 股票名称 | | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 = | 涨停时间 = | 换手率 = | 流通市值 = | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中水渔业 | 4天4板 | 12.47 | +9.96% | 09:25:00 | 2.31% | 45.62亿 | 中国农业发展集团扩 | | 000798.SZ | | | | | | | 圈等预制食品 | | 开创国际 600097.SS | 3天2板 | 14.29 | +10.01% | 09:59:13 | 15.51% | 34.43亿 | 上海水产集团旗下, | | 东方海洋 | | 2.98 | +9.96% | 09: ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the entire report industry are provided. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7] - **Stock Index Futures**: The risk of a significant decline is low, and it is advisable to take long positions opportunistically [9][10] - **Precious Metals**: Temporarily observe and wait for opportunities to go long [11][12] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13] - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [15] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue to correct in the short term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [17] - **Ferroalloys**: After a decline, consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss - making range [19][20] - **Crude Oil**: In the short term, focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [22][23] - **Fuel Oil**: Focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [25][26] - **Polyolefins**: Temporarily observe [28] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate, with limited downside space. Pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [29][31] - **Natural Rubber**: Focus on long - position opportunities [32][33] - **PVC**: Pay attention to supply - side changes [34][35] - **Urea**: The downward space is limited [36][37] - **PX**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider trading within the range [38][39] - **PTA**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40] - **Ethylene Glycol**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41] - **Short - Fiber**: May fluctuate following the cost. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to fluctuate following the cost. Control risks [43] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45] - **Copper**: Expected to maintain high - level oscillations [46][47] - **Aluminum**: May experience a phased correction [48][50] - **Zinc**: Will continue to oscillate within a range [51][52] - **Lead**: Will operate within a range [53][54] - **Tin**: May oscillate strongly [55][56] - **Nickel**: May oscillate [57] - **Soybean Oil and Meal**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long positions at the low - cost support range [58][59] - **Palm Oil**: Consider going long during corrections [60][61] - **Rapeseed Meal and Oil**: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63][64] - **Cotton**: Expected to be weak [65][67][68] - **Sugar**: Expected to be under pressure and operate with a weak oscillation [69][71][72] - **Apples**: Expected to operate strongly [73][76] - **Hogs**: Consider shorting on rebounds [77][78] - **Eggs**: Consider closing short positions gradually [79][82] - **Corn and Starch**: It is advisable to observe for corn and wait for the release of supply pressure; corn starch may follow the corn market [83][86] Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw all treasury bond futures close higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising 0.06%, 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.01% respectively [5] - **Open - Market Operations**: On November 18, the central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 37 billion yuan [5] - **Policy News**: 12 departments including the Beijing Branch of the People's Bank of China issued a plan to support consumption infrastructure and the construction of the commercial circulation system [5] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures, with the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures down 0.41%, 0.23%, 0.85%, and 0.69% respectively [8][9] - **Economic Data**: In October, the unemployment rates of different age - groups in the labor force were announced, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow [9] - **Market Outlook**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. The risk of a significant decline is low [9] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw gold and silver futures decline, with gold down 1.18% and silver down 1.96% [11] - **Positive Factors**: The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and the expected Fed rate cuts are beneficial to precious metals [11] - **Negative Factors**: The recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to high prices and increased volatility [11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a slight rebound in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures [13] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market is entering the off - season. Supply is affected by poor profitability, and inventory is high [13] - **Outlook**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend [13] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw iron ore futures oscillate [15] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The demand for iron ore has declined, but there was a recent increase in daily pig - iron output. Supply is abundant, and inventory is higher than last year [15] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and there may be resistance to rebounds [15] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a sharp decline in coking coal and coke futures [17] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Coking coal supply is slightly tight, and demand is weak. Coke supply has decreased, and demand may weaken [17] - **Outlook**: May continue to correct in the short term [17] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures decline [19] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Manganese ore supply has decreased, and costs have increased. Production is declining, and demand is weak, with inventory accumulating [19] - **Outlook**: After a decline, consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss - making range [19][20] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil open high and close low [21] - **Industry News**: The CFTC report is suspended, the number of US oil and gas rigs has increased, and Russia has been attacked [21] - **Outlook**: There are concerns about oversupply, but the attack on Russia is beneficial to prices. In the short term, focus on shorting opportunities [22][23] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned, but there is an analysis of supply and demand [24] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory is high, which is negative, while Russia's sanctions and reduced Sino - US trade frictions are positive [24][25] - **Outlook**: Focus on shorting opportunities [25][26] Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw a weak and volatile PP market in Hangzhou and a stable LLDPE market in Yuyao [27] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: PP downstream demand has a mixed performance, with some industries seeing an increase and others remaining weak [27] - **Outlook**: Temporarily observe [28] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main synthetic rubber contract rise 0.91% [29] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Raw material prices have rebounded, production capacity utilization has increased, and inventory has increased [29][30] - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate, with limited downside space. Pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [29][31] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main natural rubber contract rise 0.33% [32] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by weather, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [32] - **Outlook**: Focus on long - position opportunities [32][33] PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PVC contract decline 1.46% [34] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply exceeds demand, production capacity utilization has decreased, and inventory has decreased slightly [34][35] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to supply - side changes [34][35] Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main urea contract rise 0.36% [36] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is at a certain level [36] - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited [36][37] PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PX contract decline 0.53% [38] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, and imports have decreased slightly [38] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider trading within the range [38][39] PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main PTA contract decline 0.55% [40] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has adjusted, demand is stable, and processing fees have decreased [40] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main ethylene glycol contract decline 0.64% [41] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, inventory has increased, and demand is limited [41] - **Outlook**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main short - fiber contract decline 0.64% [42] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization is high, demand is weak, and processing fees are at a certain level [42] - **Outlook**: May fluctuate following the cost. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main bottle - chip contract decline 0.56% [43] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has decreased, export growth has slowed, and processing fees are at a certain level [43] - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate following the cost. Control risks [43] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main lithium carbonate contract rise 0.93% [44] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors is improving, with inventory decreasing [44][45] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45] Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main copper contract decline 0.03% [46] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by mine production problems, and demand is weak except for the copper - foil sector [46] - **Outlook**: Expected to maintain high - level oscillations [46][47] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main aluminum contract decline 0.16%, and the alumina contract decline 0.36% [48] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Alumina supply is abundant, and aluminum demand is weakening [48] - **Outlook**: May experience a phased correction [48][50] Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main zinc contract rise 0.11% [51] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply of zinc concentrate is tight, production has decreased, and demand is flat [51] - **Outlook**: Will continue to oscillate within a range [51][52] Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main lead contract decline 0.49% [53] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is affected by smelter maintenance, and demand is in the off - season [53] - **Outlook**: Will operate within a range [53][54] Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main tin contract rise 0.68% [55] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is tight, and demand has shown some resilience [55][56] - **Outlook**: May oscillate strongly [55][56] Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main nickel contract decline 0.02% [57] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Nickel ore prices are stable, production may be affected, and demand is weak [57] - **Outlook**: May oscillate [57] Soybean Oil and Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw soybean meal down 0.33% and soybean oil up 0.60% [58] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, oil - mill压榨 is in a loss, and demand for both products has some improvement [58][59] - **Outlook**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long positions at the low - cost support range [58][59] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil futures rose, and exports decreased in November [60] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Malaysian inventory is at a high level but may decrease, and domestic inventory is at a medium level [60] - **Outlook**: Consider going long during corrections [60][61] Rapeseed Meal and Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed futures rose [62] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Chinese rapeseed imports have decreased, and inventory is at different levels [62][63] - **Outlook**: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63][64] Cotton - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic cotton futures decline, and overseas cotton rose [65] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Global and US cotton production and inventory have increased, and domestic supply pressure is high [65][67] - **Outlook**: Expected to be weak [65][67][68] Sugar - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic and overseas sugar futures decline [69] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Brazil is in the seasonal production - reduction period, India has strong production - increase expectations, and domestic imports are expected to be high [69][71] - **Outlook**: Expected to be under pressure and operate with a weak oscillation [69][71][72] Apples - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw domestic apple futures oscillate at a high level [73] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Inventory is lower than last year, and quality is poor [73][74][75] - **Outlook**: Expected to operate strongly [73][76] Hogs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main hog contract decline 1.16% [78] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is abundant, and demand is affected by the season. Inventory and cost are at certain levels [77][78] - **Outlook**: Consider shorting on rebounds [77][78] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main egg contract decline 0.87% [82] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, but there are signs of improvement. Demand is weak [79][80][82] - **Outlook**: Consider closing short positions gradually [79][82] Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main corn contract decline 0.50% and the starch contract decline 0.96% [83] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Corn supply is abundant, and demand is growing slightly. Corn starch demand has improved, but inventory is high [83][84][86] - **Outlook**:

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has improved market sentiment, which is expected to support copper and aluminum prices [1][16] - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, with some advocating for a pause due to persistent inflation concerns [2][17] - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea has officially commenced production, with a resource volume exceeding 4 billion tons and an annual capacity of 60 million tons [3][18] - A significant gold deposit has been discovered in China, with a total gold content of 1,444.49 tons, marking the largest single gold mine found since the establishment of the People's Republic of China [4][19] - Yahua Group has made a breakthrough in lithium sulfide technology, which is expected to accelerate the industrialization of solid-state batteries [5][20] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metal sector saw a slight increase of 1.07% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.25 percentage points [10] Key Focus Areas & Metal Prices - Copper prices have increased by 1.41% to $10,846 per ton, while COMEX copper inventories rose by 3.23% to 381,296 tons [21][23] - Aluminum prices decreased slightly by 0.12% to $2,858.5 per ton, with LME aluminum inventories increasing by 0.94% [21][23] - Gold prices on COMEX rose by 1.91% to $4,084.40 per ounce, with SHFE gold prices increasing by 3.47% to 953.20 yuan per gram [38][39] - Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices surged by 9.15% to 80,500 yuan per ton, driven by strong demand from energy storage and AI sectors [41][46] Core View Updates and Key Stock Tracking - For industrial metals, the report recommends focusing on companies with integrated operations, such as China Hongqiao, and suggests关注紫金矿业, 洛阳钼业, and others for copper investments [55][56] - In precious metals, the ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold is highlighted, with recommendations for stocks like 赤峰黄金 and 山东黄金 [55] - Strategic metals are expected to benefit from the easing of export restrictions, with a focus on cobalt, antimony, and tungsten sectors [56]

11月18日，金价早盘延续回落，盘中受避险情绪升温及美联储降息预期回升催化，止跌反弹，截至收 盘，COMEX黄金期货跌0.17%报4067.40美元/盎司。 中信期货分析指出，日内披露的美国周度首申、续请失业金人数维持高位，美国政府本次的超长停摆进 一步推升劳动力市场下行风险，美股延续弱势，美债小幅走强，关注本周美国GDP及非农数据披露，金 银短期或呈现震荡整理。长期中贵金属多头趋势维持。债务超发、逆全球化作为美元信用下行的核心驱 动并未反转，黄金作为超越主权的货币，仍是对冲美元信用风险的首选资产。 "小非农"ADP周度就业数据显示，截至11月1日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少2500人。 另外，美国劳工部数据显示，截至10月18日当周，美国初请失业金人数23.2万人，续请失业金人数小幅 上升至195.7万人，同时，截至9月20日当周初请失业金人数从21.8万人上修至21.9万人，四周均值从 23.75万人上修至23.775万人，疲软数据明显提升了市场对12月降息的预期。 ...

·高盛：预计到2026年底金价将达到每盎司4900美元 【机构分析】 ·银河期货表示，尽管沃勒在最新发言中仍支持12月降息，但由于近期美联储多位官员密集释放鹰派信 号，继续削弱市场的乐观预期，12月降息的概率预测由之前的70%回落至不足43%。此外，近期市场对 美股人工智能板块估值泡沫的担忧情绪升温，加之重要企业英伟达将于本周发布财报，整体市场情绪趋 于谨慎，因此出现新一轮抛售，VIX恐慌指数走高。贵金属市场，一方面，美联储释放鹰派信号支撑美 元走强，令贵金属承压，市场正在挤出此前乐观预期带来的"溢价"；另一方面，在市场风险资产遭遇抛 售的初期，往往会出现短期流动性紧张导致包括贵金属在内的避险资产在"risk-off"模式开启阶段出现无 差别下跌，同样令贵金属承压。短期内，预计市场将围绕本周出炉的美国非农数据和英伟达业绩等进行 博弈，市场波动可能放大，但不必过于悲观。 ·西南期货表示，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置 价值和避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。美国劳动力市场进一步放缓，美联储 有望持续降息，也利好贵金属。但近期贵金属上涨幅度较大，定 ...