Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in the March PMI is attributed to the fading effects of the Spring Festival and accelerated demand recovery [3][9]. Manufacturing PMI - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4% in March, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a recovery post-Spring Festival [2][3]. - The new orders index increased by 3 percentage points to 51.6%, indicating stronger demand recovery compared to previous years [3][16]. - The production orders index only rose by 1.8 percentage points to 51.4%, suggesting slower recovery in production due to delayed resumption of work [3][16]. Industry Analysis - The consumer goods sector saw a larger PMI increase of 2 percentage points to 50.8%, indicating a faster demand recovery compared to other sectors [4][20]. - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs increased by 1.7 and 0.6 percentage points to 51.5% and 52.1%, respectively, but showed weaker production performance [4][21]. Non-Manufacturing PMI - The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, with the construction sector's PMI increasing by 1.1 percentage points to 49.3%, which is lower than the previous year's recovery rate [4][24]. - The construction project resumption rate was 62%, down 2.6 percentage points from the same period in 2025, indicating slower recovery in the sector [4][24]. Future Outlook - The focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption is expected to enhance the recovery of domestic demand, which may outpace external demand [5][34]. - However, rising oil prices due to geopolitical risks could negatively impact manufacturing profitability, with a transmission lag of about 3-4 months [5][34]. Regular Tracking - The manufacturing PMI showed a recovery, with the new orders index rising significantly [6][43]. - The service sector PMI increased slightly to 50.2%, but the new orders index fell by 0.4 percentage points to 45.3% [6][52]. - The construction sector's new orders index improved marginally by 1.3 percentage points to 43.5% [6][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - A股 major indices closed down collectively, with small and medium - cap stocks weaker than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded slightly. Most industry sectors declined, with the coal and power equipment sectors weakening significantly and the household appliances sector leading the rise. Overseas, Trump's statement on ending the war caused an initial drop in oil prices, but the decline narrowed later. A - shares moved in the opposite direction to oil prices. In March 2026, after the Spring Festival, manufacturing PMI reached a one - year high. Among the four broad - based indices of listed companies that have disclosed 2025 annual reports, CSI 300 and SSE 50 showed accelerating revenue growth and slightly declining net profit growth, while CSI 500 and CSI 1000 had accelerating revenue and net profit growth. Overall, the three PMI indices returned to the expansion range in March, and the economic fundamentals are expected to continue to recover. However, due to the uncertainty of overseas geopolitical situations, caution is still needed [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: IF (2606) latest price is 4375.8, down 34.0; IH (2606) is 2804.0, down 9.2; IC (2606) is 7425.0, down 130.8; IM (2606) is 7379.4, down 126.6. IF (2604) is 4433.8, down 33.0; IH (2604) is 2824.4, down 5.4; IC (2604) is 7575.6, down 129.4; IM (2604) is 7573.6, down 118.4 [2]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1609.4, down 34.0; IC - IF spread is 3141.8, down 92.6; IM - IC spread is - 2.0, up 9.0; IC - IH spread is 4751.2, down 126.6; IM - IF spread is 3139.8, down 83.6; IM - IH spread is 4749.2, down 117.6 [2]. - **Quarter - to - Current Month Spreads**: IF quarter - current month is - 58.0, up 0.4; IF next quarter - current month is - 140.4, up 1.8; IH quarter - current month is - 20.4, down 3.8; IH next quarter - current month is - 60.2, down 2.0; IC quarter - current month is - 150.6, down 4.4; IC next quarter - current month is - 320.2, down 0.6; IM quarter - current month is - 194.2, down 7.8; IM next quarter - current month is - 413.6, down 0.4 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: IF top 20 net positions are 24,653.00, up 1907.0; IH top 20 net positions are 18,790.00, down 1316.0; IC top 20 net positions are 29,687.00, up 385.0; IM top 20 net positions are 47,138.00, up 1533.0 [2]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: CSI 300 is 4450.05, down 41.9, IF basis is - 74.3, up 3.7; SSE 50 is 2826.1, down 7.1, IH basis is - 22.1, down 1.3; CSI 500 is 7617.3, down 136.4, IC basis is - 192.3, up 0.8; CSI 1000 is 7619.9, down 148.1, IM basis is - 240.5, up 18.1 [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 20,059.05 billion yuan, up 783.57 billion yuan; margin trading balance is 26,169.14 billion yuan, up 80.69 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume is 2462.66 billion yuan, up 16.98 billion yuan; reverse repurchase operation is + 325.0 billion yuan, maturity is - 175.0 billion yuan; main funds flow is - 835.29 billion yuan; the proportion of rising stocks is 18.37%, down 33.83%; Shibor is 1.277%, down 0.041%; IO at - the - money call option closing price (2604) is 64.80, down 19.80; implied volatility is 18.04%, up 0.69; IO at - the - money put option closing price (2604) is 76.20, up 16.40; implied volatility is 17.61%, up 0.26; CSI 300 20 - day volatility is 18.12%, down 0.43; volume PCR is 82.10%, down 9.73; position PCR is 66.27%, up 0.47 [2]. Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score is 2.80, down 2.60; technical aspect score is 1.80, down 3.40; capital aspect score is 3.80, down 1.70 [2]. Industry News - Trump said Iran agreed to "most of the content" in the "15 - point ceasefire plan", and the US is in serious consultations with Iran. Trump threatened to destroy Iranian power plants, oil wells, etc. if no agreement is reached soon. Iran said it would cause a power outage in the region if power facilities are attacked, and has not directly negotiated with the US, considering the "15 - point plan" unreasonable and will not participate in the Pakistan - led war - related meeting [2]. - Trump told his assistants he is willing to end the military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed [2]. - In March, manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI output index all returned to the expansion range, at 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5% respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month [2]. Key Data to Focus On - March 31, 22:00, US February JOLTs job openings - April 1, 20:30, US February retail sales, core retail sales; 22:00, US March ISM manufacturing PMI - April 2, 19:30, US March Challenger job - cut numbers - April 3, 20:30, US March non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial (treasury bond) sector is "oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board. Most contracts first declined and then rose in the morning session and fluctuated horizontally in the afternoon. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 rose 0.52%, the 10 - year T2606 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2606 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2606 fell 0.02% [1] Important Information - In the open market, the central bank conducted 17.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Tuesday, with 51 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 33.5 billion yuan [1] - In the money market, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low on Tuesday. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.41%, down from 1.43% in the previous trading day [1] - In the cash bond market, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds on Tuesday showed mixed changes compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.51 BP to 1.31%, the 5 - year increased by 0.47 BP to 1.58%, the 10 - year decreased by 0.44 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year decreased by 2.73 BP to 2.35% [1] - The preliminary value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in March was 51.4, expected to be 49.4, and the previous value was 50.8. The preliminary value of the eurozone's service PMI in March fell to 50.1, far lower than the expected 51.1. The eurozone's composite PMI in March dropped from 51.9 in February to 50.5, lower than the analysts' expected 51, hitting the lowest level since May last year [1] - The preliminary data released by S&P Global on March 24 showed that the US composite PMI output index in March was 51.4, lower than 51.9 in February, hitting a new low since April last year. Services were the main drag, with its business activity index dropping to 51.1, also a new low in 11 months, while the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, a two - month high [1] - On March 25, the People's Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1 - year term through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multi - price winning bid method. There will be 450 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day [1] Market Logic - In the first two months of this year, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment, export, and social retail sales all exceeded market expectations. The growth of industrial added value above designated size also exceeded expectations, and the year - on - year growth rate of the service production index rebounded compared with December last year. The sales area of new homes in the first two months continued to decline significantly year - on - year, and the overall second - hand housing sales price continued to decline month - on - month. The real estate market is still in the process of bottom - seeking [1][2] - On March 18, the enlarged meeting of the central bank's Party committee pointed out that according to the changes in the economic and financial situation and the macro - economic operation, it is necessary to guide and regulate the interest rate level to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost [2] - On Tuesday, the Wind All - A Index opened higher, bottomed out and rebounded in the morning, and had a wave of rise in the afternoon, closing with a small positive line with a long lower shadow, up 2.11% with a trading volume of 2.1 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day's 2.45 trillion yuan [2] - The US President said on Monday that he had a dialogue with Iran and suspended the strike on Iranian energy facilities for five days. Although Iran denied it, the market treated it as good news. Overnight US stocks and the stock markets of China, Japan, and South Korea on Tuesday all rose [2]

Liquidity - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased week-on-week [4] - BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for February 2026 is 48.66, down 3.20% month-on-month [4] - M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.1 percentage points in January 2026, up 0.6 percentage points month-on-month [4] - Current London gold spot price is $5168 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Blast furnace capacity utilization rate for January-February is at the highest level in five years [5] - Price changes this week: rebar -0.94%, cement price index -0.35%, rubber -1.47%, coke -3.52%, coking coal -0.88%, iron ore +1.20% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates increased by 0.96 percentage points, 8.20 percentage points, and 1.1 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide and glass prices are at low levels [6] - This week, titanium dioxide and glass prices increased by 0.75% and 1.31% respectively, with titanium dioxide gross profit at -1933 yuan/ton and flat glass operating rate at 70.81% [6] Industrial Products Chain - National PMI new orders index for February is 48.60% [7] - Major commodity price performance this week: cold-rolled -0.27%, copper -1.09%, aluminum +4.54%, with corresponding gross profit changes of -20.83%, +15.19%, and +14.72% [7] - National semi-steel tire operating rate is 74.03%, up 39.47 percentage points month-on-month [7] Subcategories - Aluminum price increased by 4.5% to 24,410 yuan/ton, tungsten price increased by 15.1% to 919,000 yuan/ton [8] - Super high power graphite electrode price is 19,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 1695.04 yuan/ton, down 12.93% [8] - Electrolytic aluminum price is 24,410 yuan/ton, with estimated profit of 7188 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up 14.72% [8] - Electrolytic copper price is 101,210 yuan/ton, down 1.09% [8] - Tungsten concentrate price is 919,000 yuan/ton, up 15.10% from last week [8] Price Comparison Relationships - Hot-rolled and rebar price difference is at the lowest level in five years [9] - Rebar and iron ore price ratio this week is 4.05 [9] - Price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 100 yuan/ton this week [9] - Price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled steel and hot-rolled steel is 270 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [9] - Price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.10 [9] - Price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 160 yuan/ton, down 11.11% from last week [9] - Price difference between medium-thick plate and rebar steel is 120 yuan/ton this week [9] Export Chain - February PMI new export orders for China is 45.00%, down 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [10] - China export container freight index CCFI composite index this week is 1054.26 points, up 0.93% [10] - US crude steel capacity utilization rate is 78.30%, down 0.20 percentage points [10] - As of January 1, 2026, certain steel products will be subject to export license management, which is expected to further regulate China's steel product exports [10] Valuation Percentiles - This week, the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.07%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being oil and petrochemicals (+8.06%) [11] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are 39.12% and 79.13% respectively [11] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 0.54, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [11]

Manufacturing Sector - In February 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from January[2] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI dropped by 1 percentage point to 49.6%, primarily due to the extended Spring Festival holiday[3] - New export orders index fell significantly to 45.0%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a sharper decline than the historical average of 0.4 percentage points during Spring Festival months[3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from January, with the services PMI at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points[2] - The construction PMI decreased to 48.2%, down 0.6 percentage points, marking the lowest level in nearly six years due to the holiday and ongoing real estate market adjustments[6] Economic Policies and Market Impact - Recent structural policies from the central bank and finance ministry aimed at supporting small and medium enterprises have had a positive impact on market confidence, contributing to a milder decline in the manufacturing PMI[4] - The prices of raw materials saw a decrease of 1.3 percentage points to 54.8%, while the factory price index remained stable at 50.6%, indicating ongoing industrial price pressures[4] Future Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is expected to rebound in March, with projections ranging between 49.8% and 50.2%, influenced by historical trends following the Spring Festival[6] - Key factors affecting future PMI trends include U.S. tariffs on global trade, the real estate market's performance, and the timing and intensity of growth-stabilizing policies[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the manufacturing PMI index in China for January 2026 is at 49.3%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points but a month-on-month decrease of 0.8 percentage points [1] - The Asian manufacturing PMI index for January 2026 stands at 51%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The data source for the manufacturing PMI indices is the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing [2]

Group 1 - The State Council's Safety Committee reported two significant firework explosion accidents and emphasized the need for comprehensive safety regulation in the firework industry, particularly during the Spring Festival [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission noted that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, over 40% of resource-based cities saw the mining industry's total output value drop to 6.2% of industrial output value, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] - The China National Railway Group announced that as of February 20, 8 AM, a total of 298 million train tickets were sold for the Spring Festival travel period [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose large-scale tariffs, significantly impacting Trump's tariff policy and alleviating market concerns [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the economic growth rate for Q4 2025 was 1.4%, significantly below the market expectation of 2.8%, with the overall economic growth rate for 2025 at 2.2%, lower than 2024's 2.8% [2] - The Michigan University consumer confidence index for February was reported at 56.6, slightly down from the initial value but higher than the previous month's 56.4, indicating consumer sentiment trends [3]

Core Viewpoint - US business activity continued to expand in February, but the pace of expansion has slowed to the lowest level in nearly 10 months, indicating signs of economic cooling [1][2] Group 1: PMI Data - The US Composite PMI output index fell to 52.3 in February, down 0.7 percentage points from January, marking the lowest level since April of the previous year [1] - The Services PMI decreased to 52.3, down from 52.7 in January, while the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.2, reaching a seven-month low, with both indicators missing market expectations [1] - The PMI data suggests that the annualized GDP growth rate for the US may be only about 1.5% this year, indicating a significant cooling in the economy compared to the stronger growth seen in the second half of last year [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Manufacturing new orders declined for the second time in the past three months, reflecting continued pressure on the demand side [2] - Employment indices for both manufacturing and services fell to 50.2, close to the neutral line, indicating a near halt in hiring activity as companies adopt a cautious approach amid reduced orders and slowing business expansion [2] - Overall, the PMI data signals a clear cooling of the US economy at the beginning of the year, with market expectations for first-quarter economic growth becoming increasingly conservative [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the manufacturing PMI index in France has shown significant improvement, reaching 50.7% in December 2025, which is an increase of 8.8 percentage points year-on-year and 2.9 percentage points month-on-month [1] - The European manufacturing PMI index stands at 49.3% in December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5 percentage points but a month-on-month decline of 0.3 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The data source for the manufacturing PMI indices is the China Logistics and Purchasing Network, which provides insights into the trends over the past year for both France and Europe [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term and have a clear upward trend in the medium and long - term [5]. - The price of aluminum alloy may continue to fluctuate and adjust following the price of electrolytic aluminum [64]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US economic data: The US January ISM manufacturing PMI index rose to 52.6, hitting a new high since August 2022. The January ISM services PMI index slightly fell to 53.8 but was better than expected. The January ADP employment number was 22,000, lower than the market forecast. The release of the US non - farm payroll report was postponed [5][12]. - Chinese economic data: China's January official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point month - on - month decline. The Rating Dog manufacturing PMI rose to a three - month high of 50.3 in January, with sales prices rising for the first time in 14 months [5][16]. - Market sentiment: Global large - scale silver ETF selling put pressure on the precious metal market. Market risk appetite was poor, and domestic PMI data weakened. Steady - growth policies need continuous efforts [5]. - Aluminum market fundamentals: Overseas new production capacity is slowly put into operation. In China, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has changed little in the near term. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, some enterprises choose to take holidays in advance, and the demand shows a weakening trend. Aluminum ingot social inventory has continued to accumulate [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has changed little [8]. - Bearish factors: Social inventory continues to accumulate. Consumption weakens as the Spring Festival approaches. Precious metals continue to decline, and market risk appetite is poor [8][9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - Bauxite supply: From January to November this year, China's cumulative bauxite production was 55.2135 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.21%. In November, the single - month output was 4.698 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.26%. The domestic bauxite supply is tight. The total amount of imported bauxite in December was 14.67 million tons. The supply of overseas bauxite is expected to be relatively loose, and the export volume of Guinean bauxite in 2026 is expected to reach 180 million tons [18][21]. - Alumina market: In 2025, the new domestic alumina production capacity was 9.8 million tons, and it is expected to be 8.6 million tons in 2026. If all new production capacity is put into operation on time, the alumina supply surplus will exceed 10 million tons in 2026. Overseas, the planned new production capacity from 2025 - 2026 is 8.5 million tons, and 5.5 million tons are expected to be added in 2026. Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level [25]. - Electrolytic aluminum production: In December 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.9% year - on - year and 4.0% month - on - month. The aluminum water ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month to 76.5%. At the end of December, the national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 383,000 tons month - on - month. It is expected that the operating capacity will increase slightly in January, and the aluminum water ratio may continue to decline [29]. - Aluminum processing: The comprehensive aluminum processing start - up rate last week was 59.4%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous week [30]. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory decreased to 492,975 tons. As of January 30, SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 10% week - on - week to 216,771 tons. As of February 5, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 853,000 tons, a 24,000 - ton increase from Monday [40][43]. - Price difference: On February 5, the average price of Shanghai Wumao aluminum had a reduced discount. The LME aluminum 0 - 3 discount increased [47]. - Recycled aluminum: In December, the domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 640,400 tons, a 41,800 - ton month - on - month decrease. Small and medium - sized aluminum plants faced difficulties in raw material procurement. As of January 15, the recycled aluminum alloy industry start - up rate was 58%, unchanged from the previous week [50][54]. - Aluminum trade: In 2025, China's cumulative exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. In December, exports were 540,000 tons, a 5.3% year - on - year decrease. Imports in December were 320,000 tons, a 33.3% year - on - year increase [58]. - Aluminum alloy inventory: As of January 30, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 67,300 tons, a 300 - ton increase from the previous week, and the in - plant inventory was 71,100 tons, a 6,000 - ton increase from the previous week [61]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow the electrolytic aluminum prices and continue to fluctuate and adjust [64]. - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term and have a clear upward trend in the medium and long - term [67].