请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2026年01月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，盘面偏强震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，盘面偏强震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场情绪推涨，盘面震荡抬升 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场情绪推涨，盘面震荡抬升 | 5 | | 焦炭：事件发酵，高位震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：事件发酵，高位震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 8 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 828.0 | 27.0 | 3. 37% | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 666. 581 | 25, 713 | | | ...

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •美国企业2025年12月私营部门就业人数增加4.1万 •美方积极讨论"购买"格陵兰岛 鲁比奥下周或与丹麦官员会面 •美能源部长宣称将"无限期"控制委内瑞拉石油销售 •欧元区去年12月通胀率降至2% •德国失业率连续三年上升 •调查显示日本2026年约1.5万种食品将涨价 【市场资讯】 •ADP数据显示，美国企业2025年12月私营部门就业人数增加4.1万，扭转了前月的下滑趋势，但低于市 场预期。另外，美国2025年11月JOLTS职位空缺降至714.6万个，远低于市场预期的760万个，创2024年 9月以来最低水平。 •美国2025年12月ISM服务业PMI指数上升1.8点至54.4，为2024年10月以来的最高水平。新订单增幅创下 自2024年9月以来的最大水平。价格上涨速度降至九个月以来最慢。 •美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特7日说，美国总统特朗普及其国家安全团队目前正在积极讨论可能"购买"格陵 兰岛的方案。同日，美国国务卿鲁比奥透露他下周或就此与丹麦官员会面。特朗普上任以来多次扬言要 得到格陵兰岛。特朗普近日的相关言论引发丹麦等欧洲国家强烈反对。 •美国能源部长克里斯·赖特7日宣 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 24295 | 475 02-03月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -50 | -5 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 3195 | 68 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 230243 | 22571 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 3432 | 3069 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 69793 | -3170 LME库存(日,吨) | 105850 | -475 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 24340 | 370 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 24630 | 140 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 45 | -105 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -36.3 | -0.05 | | | 昆明50%锌精矿到厂价(日,元/吨) | 20850 | ...

所长 早读 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂 | ★★★★ | 碳酸锂：需求向好预期强化，价格重心上移。需求侧支撑主要来自两方面：一是政策持续发 力强化了市场对中长期需求的信心。国内新能源汽车以旧换新政策延续，对报废更新、置换 更新分别给予车价 12%（最高 2 万元）及 8%（最高 1.5 万元）的补贴，预计补贴总量将高 于 2025 年水平，年末补贴提前结束的风险有所降低。与此同时，储能容量补偿政策覆盖范 围持续扩大，湖北省自 2 月 1 日起对独立储能执行 10 小时等效 165 元/千瓦的容量补偿标 准，全国性储能补贴政策亦有望在春节前出台，储能需求存在超预期的可能性。二是 1 月传 统淡季需求表现可能好于预期，正极厂商的实际减产力度仍有待观察。供给端方面，国务院 印发《固体废物综合治理行动计划》，提出原则上不再批准建设无自建矿山、无配套尾矿利 用处置设施的选矿项目，引发市场对锂资源供给收紧的担忧。整体而言，当前碳酸锂市场处 国泰君安期货 2026-01-06 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-06 所长 早读 今 日 发 ...

首先，PMI指数重回扩张区间，有利于春季行情的展开。 2025年12月31日，国家统计局公布12月PMI指数，制造业PMI为50.1%、前值49.2%。这是该 指标9个月之后重回扩张区间，是否意味着经济基本面出现改善？应该说，单一指标尚难以全面刻画整个经济状态，但相比市场预期和之前的状态，相信 是个边际改善。此外，年初阶段基本面数据相对有限，往往难以马上证实或者证伪一种观点。这也是春季行情发生的主要原因之一，即在相对"朦胧"的预 期下，对全年行情做出一种预演。 其次，周一两市高开高走，量能放大。 沪指高开后，一路向上反弹，收盘于全天高点附近，连续收出第十二根阳线。深圳成指表现更强，越过了去 年十月初的高点。两市成交金额超过2.5 万亿元，较上个交易日大幅增加。当天市场热点主要集中在TMT和医药行业。投资风格方面，科技风格领涨。 从运行节奏看，沪指完成小双底形态，正在向前期高点挑战。 沪指分别于2025年11月下旬和 12 月中旬向下调整，止跌的位置基本相同，形态类似 于"双底"。目前正在向 2025年11月高点靠近，需密切关注前期高点的技术性压力和下方均线的支撑力度。 风险提示： 国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期； ...

2026年1月6日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) SCFIS持续上行,现货运价维持上涨,盘面偏强震荡,关注二月运价走势。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 1月5日 | 1月2日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1795.83点，较上期上涨3.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (综合指数) 1296.7点, 较上期上涨10.40% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (美西航线) 1250.12点, 较上期下跌3.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 1258.31点, 较上期上涨9.96% | | 12月26日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (美西航线) 1743.56点, 较上期上涨38.94% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1656.32点，较上期上涨103.4点 | 12月26日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl欧线价格1690USD/TEU,较上期上涨10.24% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI (综合指数) 1124.73点, 较上期上涨0.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SC ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily research on various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend judgments and analysis based on their fundamentals and market news [2]. - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical events, macro - economic data, and supply - demand relationships. For example, the situation in Venezuela has an impact on the prices of gold, copper, and other commodities [5][8]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and foreign gold futures and spot have different trends. The trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The geopolitical event of the US airstrike in Venezuela has supported the price of gold [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level consolidation. The prices of domestic and foreign silver futures and spot have different trends. The trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [2][5]. - **Platinum**: It is oscillating upwards. The prices of platinum futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [25][27]. - **Palladium**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of palladium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [25][27]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The sentiment of going long is strong, and the price has been rising continuously. The prices of domestic and foreign copper futures have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Geopolitical risks and industry news such as production capacity expansion and labor - contract negotiations have an impact on the price [2][8]. - **Zinc**: It is oscillating strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Macroeconomic data and industry news have affected the price [2][11]. - **Lead**: The reduction in inventory supports the price. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures have different trends, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Geopolitical events and industry news have affected the price [2][14]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating within a range. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Macro - and industry news have an impact on the price [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It continues to make up for losses. The prices of aluminum futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Macroeconomic data and industry news have affected the price [2][21]. - **Alumina**: It has a slight decline. The prices of alumina futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [2][21]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between the real - world pressure and the narrative of the cycle shift, with a wide - range oscillation. The prices of nickel futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Industry news such as policy restrictions in Indonesia has an impact on the price [2][29]. - **Stainless steel**: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down, and the market is mainly gambling on Indonesian policies. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [2][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related (implied)**: The geopolitical situation in Venezuela and other regions has affected the price expectations of crude oil - related products, which in turn has an impact on the prices of downstream products [29][64]. - **PTA**: It is in a high - level oscillating market with cost support. The prices of PTA futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][59][64]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. The prices of MEG futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][59][65]. - **Rubber**: It is oscillating. The prices of rubber futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory and production situation have an impact on the price [2][66]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term center has shifted upwards. The prices of synthetic - rubber futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of raw materials and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][69]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory has been transferred, and the basis has strengthened. The prices of LLDPE futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of raw materials and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][72]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the basis has strengthened. The prices of PP futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of raw materials and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][74]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is not advisable to chase short. The price of caustic - soda futures has changed, and the spot market is not optimistic. The high - production and high - inventory pattern and the demand situation have an impact on the price [2][76]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The prices of paper - pulp futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory and demand situation have an impact on the price [2][81]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The prices of glass futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The market supply and demand and the sales situation have an impact on the price [2][86]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short term. The prices of methanol futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Geopolitical events and the supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries have an impact on the price [2][90]. - **Urea**: The oscillation center has shifted upwards. The prices of urea futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory and demand situation have an impact on the price [2][95]. - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term oscillation. The prices of styrene futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the inventory situation have an impact on the price [2][99]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The prices of soda - ash futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries have an impact on the price [2][103]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical factors have disturbed the cost, and attention should be paid to the realization of the downward drive. The prices of LPG futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the price of CP paper have an impact on the price [2][109]. - **Propylene**: The upward and downward drives are limited, and the spot trend has stabilized. The prices of propylene futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][110]. - **PVC**: It is strong in the short term and oscillating in the medium term. The prices of PVC futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The high - production and high - inventory pattern and the demand situation have an impact on the price [2][118]. - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend has paused, and there is support at the bottom. The prices of fuel - oil futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the international market situation have an impact on the price [2][123]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. The prices of low - sulfur fuel - oil futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the international market situation have an impact on the price [2][123]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental driving force is not strong, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude - oil fluctuations. The prices of palm - oil futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory, production, and export situation have an impact on the price [2][150]. - **Soybean Oil**: The unilateral price is in a range, and attention should be paid to the price - difference opportunities between months. The prices of soybean - oil futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory, production, and export situation have an impact on the price [2][150]. - **Soybean Meal**: The peripheral market has generally risen, and the Dalian soybean meal may follow the rebound. The prices of soybean - meal futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the international and domestic markets and the weather in South America have an impact on the price [2][155]. - **Soybean**: It is in a rebound and oscillation. The prices of soybean futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the international and domestic markets and the weather in South America have an impact on the price [2][155]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot price. The prices of corn futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the domestic and international markets and the import situation have an impact on the price [2][158]. - **Sugar**: It is mainly in a weak operation. The prices of sugar futures and spot have changed. The production, consumption, and import situation at home and abroad have an impact on the price [2][162]. - **Cotton**: It maintains an oscillating and strong trend. The prices of cotton futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the domestic and international markets and the purchase situation of textile enterprises have an impact on the price [2][167]. - **Eggs**: It is in an oscillating adjustment. The prices of egg futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the price of feed have an impact on the price [2][172]. - **Hogs**: The weakness is emerging. The prices of hog futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the market and the inventory of warehouse receipts have an impact on the price [2][175]. - **Peanuts**: It is in an oscillating operation. The prices of peanut futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the market and the purchase situation have an impact on the price [2][181]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the cabin - opening guidance. The prices of container - freight - index futures have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The shipping capacity, price adjustment of shipping companies, and geopolitical situation have an impact on the price [2][125].

国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会发布的数据显示，2025年12月份，制造业采购经理 指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.1%、50.2%和50.7%，比上月上升0.9个、 0.7个和1个百分点。国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧表示，三大指数均升至扩张区间，我 国经济景气水平总体回升。 2025年12月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.7个百分点，非制造业景气水平改善。中 国物流信息中心专家武威表示，非制造业经营活动增速较上月有所加快，重回扩张区间，需求侧虽仍在 收缩区间，但也出现向好转变的迹象。在供需向好的带动下，企业市场预期持续升温，业务活动预期指 数为56.5%，较上月上升0.3个百分点，连续3个月环比上升，并稳定在56%以上。细分指数变化显示， 投资相关活动加速启动，金融支持实体经济力度持续增强，新动能发展态势持续活跃。 服务业景气度小幅回升。服务业商务活动指数为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点。从行业看，电信广播 电视及卫星传输服务、货币金融服务、资本市场服务等行业商务活动指数均位于60%以上高位景气区 间，业务总量增长较快；零售、餐饮 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a recovery in the overall industry, with consumer goods leading the major categories [1] Core Insights - The national PMI for December is 50.1, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than the recent average [1][3] - The production index has rebounded to 51.7, with a month-on-month increase of 1.7 percentage points, while the new orders index has risen to 50.8, up by 1.6 percentage points [4][9] - The highest absolute values among industries this month are in pharmaceuticals, clothing, transportation, and communication, while the highest month-on-month increases are seen in petroleum, clothing, and timber [1][3] Summary by Sections Manufacturing PMI - The manufacturing PMI index stands at 50.1, with 4 industries above 50 and 11 below [3] - The highest PMI is in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector at 58.9, while the lowest is in general equipment manufacturing at 40.7 [3] New Orders Index - The new orders index is at 50.8, with 3 industries above 50 and 8 below [4] - The highest new orders index is also in pharmaceuticals at 62.5, while the lowest is in petroleum processing at 35.7 [5][6] Profit Trend Index - The profit trend index for manufacturing is -2.3, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.1 percentage points [7] - The highest profit trend index is in the automotive manufacturing sector at 9.3, while the lowest is in non-ferrous metal smelting at -25 [7][10] Production Index - The production index is at 51.7, with 5 industries above 50 and 9 below [9] - The highest production index is in the textile and apparel sector at 67.9, while the lowest is in general equipment manufacturing at 38.9 [9] Purchase Price Index - The purchase price index is at 53.1, down by 0.5 percentage points from last month [13] - The highest purchase price index is in non-ferrous metal smelting at 68.8, while the lowest is in petroleum processing at 32.1 [13][14] Finished Goods Inventory Index - The finished goods inventory index is at 48.2, with 4 industries above 50 and 10 below [17] - The highest inventory index is in pharmaceuticals at 55, while the lowest is in metal products at 31.3 [17] Export Orders Index - The export orders index is at 49, with 3 industries above 50 and 8 below [18] - The highest export orders index is in textiles at 62.5, while the lowest is in agricultural products at 33.3 [19][22]

文/中国银河证券首席宏观分析师 张迪 、 中国银河证券宏观经济分析师 铁伟奥 20 25年1 2月PMI指数时隔8个月再度上涨至扩张区间，新订单指数自6月 以 来 再 度 站 上 荣 枯 线 上 。 主 要 有 三 点 原 因 ， 政 策 发 力 促 进 投 资 止 跌 回 稳、 外需上升促进出口订单上行明显，以及 202 6年春节较晚，对实物工 作量的扰动明显弱于其他春节较早的年份。 国家统计局12月31日发布数 据显示 ， 2 025年12月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至扩张区间。建筑业商务活动 指数为52.8%（前值49.6%）；服务业商务活动指数为49.7%（前值49.5%）。 本月PMI指数时隔8个月再度上涨至扩张区间，新订单指数自6月以来再度站上荣枯线上。主要有三点原因，一是政策发力促进投资止跌回稳，12月11日中 央经济工作会议提到"推动投资止跌回稳，激发民间投资活力"，为后续经济工作做出部署；12月31日，国家发改委召开新闻发布会，表示"近日发改委组 织下达2026年提前批"两重"建设项目清单和中央预算内投资计划，共计约2950亿元。"政策已经率先 ...