1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (October 20 - 26), treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined. Next week, the main - line logic of the bond market remains unclear, affected by multiple factors such as market risk appetite, Sino - US trade negotiations, and tax payment periods, and is expected to oscillate slightly weaker. However, the adjustment of the bond market should be temporary. After entering November, there will be limited incremental policies, and the bond market should shift its focus to fundamentals, with a repair market emerging [1][2][14] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined this week. As of October 24, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.334, 105.615, 108.015, and 115.030 yuan respectively, down 0.044, 0.160, 0.250, and 0.700 yuan from last weekend [1][12] 3.1.2 Next Week's Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly weaker next week. The adjustment is temporary, and there should be a repair market in November. Currently, opportunities for adjustment buying and band trading can be grasped. Attention should be paid to changes in market risk appetite, Sino - US trade negotiation results, and the impact of tax payment periods [14][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 107 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 107.6278 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 8.4691 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [24][25] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Most treasury bond yields rose. As of October 24, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.49%, 1.62%, 1.85%, and 2.21% respectively. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all narrowed [29] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 28,761, 52,786, 79,022, and 138,621 lots respectively, down 858, 6,584, 17,299, and 5,756 lots from last week. The open interests were 76,489, 154,308, 264,330, and 179,114 lots respectively, with changes of +1,958, - 1,892, +4,151, and - 672 lots from last week [37][40] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, treasury bond futures adjusted slightly, with narrow - range oscillations in basis. IRR was generally lower than the certificate of deposit rate, and it was difficult to grasp positive arbitrage opportunities. Next week, there is still adjustment pressure, but the necessity of short - hedging is not high [43][44] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of October 24, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2512 - 2603 were +0.080, +0.115, +0.330, and +0.290 yuan respectively. Currently, there are few trading opportunities for inter - delivery spread strategies [48] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank's open - market net injection was 19.81 billion yuan. As of October 25, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.46%, 1.41%, 1.32%, and 1.41% respectively. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.83 trillion yuan, less than last week [53][55][57] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield oscillated narrowly. As of October 24, the US dollar index rose 0.39% to 98.9417, and the 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.02%. The probability of a US interest - rate cut next week is relatively high [63] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board, and agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of October 24, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index rose, while the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits showed different changes [66] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to be weak next week, but the adjustment is temporary. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of adjustment buying [67]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, while international soybean prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations [1] Domestic Market Analysis - After the National Day holiday, the new season soybeans are being concentrated in the market, leading to an increase in supply [1] - The high cost of imported soybeans is driving smooth transactions for domestic soybeans, resulting in stable prices [1] International Market Analysis - The outlook for US-China trade negotiations remains uncertain, contributing to the fluctuations in the market [1] - Expectations of a bumper crop for US soybeans are strengthening, which is likely to keep international soybean prices in a low-level fluctuation [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - From October 24th to 27th, it is expected that China and the US will meet in Malaysia. Due to risk - aversion needs and poor domestic ship - buying and crushing margins, short - sellers significantly reduced their positions today, leading to a rebound in the futures market. The M01 contract is expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - long positions [9]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Spread Data - On October 23rd, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 62, with a decrease of 33; in Tianjin and Rizhao, the 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) was 42, with a decrease of 33; in Zhangjiagang, it was 2, with a decrease of 13; in Dongguan, it was - 18, with a decrease of 33; in Zhanjiang, it was 22, with a decrease of 33; in Fangcheng, it was 12, with a decrease of 43. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 58, with a decrease of 26 [6]. - The M1 - 5 spread was 168, with an increase of 26; the RM1 - 5 spread was 1500, with an increase of 27; the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the futures spread of the main contract was 599, with an increase of 21 [6][7]. 2. International and Domestic Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0837, with a decrease of 20; the Brazilian soybean crushing margin was 265 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 213 [7]. - As of October 14th, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 11.1%, higher than 9.1% of the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 16.9% [9]. 3. Supply and Demand and Inventory Data - Supply: Affected by less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas after August, the USDA's estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season (53.5 bushels/acre) may still be revised down. Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA crop growth report was delayed. Brazilian soybean planting has started, and the early - sowing work is going smoothly. In October, domestic soybean arrivals are expected to increase, and the domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [8][9]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the feed addition ratio is high. The downstream trading volume seems light, but the pick - up is good [9]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; oil mill soybean meal inventory has decreased, and the number of days of feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory has decreased [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main 01 contract of soybean oil continued to adjust weakly on Thursday. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production data led to a decline in the overall oil and fat market. China's soybean oil inventory is accumulating, with sufficient supply. Although the short - term upward drive of the futures price is insufficient, the expectation is positive. It is not recommended to chase short - selling. The support level of the main contract is 8100 - 8130 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the results of recent Sino - US trade negotiations [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The main contract of rapeseed oil fell again. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the non - realization of the palm oil production reduction expectation led to a weak adjustment of the futures price, which in turn drove down the rapeseed oil price. China's rapeseed oil inventory is at a relatively high level, and the sentiment of relaxing the import policy of Canadian rapeseeds is rising. However, the short - term import supply of rapeseed is tightening, and the inventory is declining, so the basis remains firm. The main contract continued to reduce positions and volume, and the market sentiment was weak. The market may oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The main 01 contract of palm oil adjusted weakly on Thursday. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production led to a decline in the palm oil price, weakening the strong expectation in the fourth quarter. As the palm oil in the producing areas is about to enter the production - reduction season, it is not advisable to chase short - selling. The short - term palm oil may test the support in the 9000 - 9050 range, and the pressure level is 9350 - 9400. It is advisable to wait and see for the time being [4]. - **Soybean No.2 and Soybean Meal**: The main 11 contract of CBOT soybeans remained firm, and the main 01 contract of soybean meal rose. Frequent Sino - US trade negotiations and the expectation of an increase in US soybean exports supported the price of CBOT soybeans. China's domestic inventory of soybean meal is sufficient, and the further downward drive is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by weak demand and the easing of Sino - Canadian trade relations, the rapeseed meal market had been weak. However, the cumulative import volume of rapeseeds from January to September decreased by 42.2% year - on - year, and the inventory continued to decline, providing some support for the weak demand. The current fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract oil - meal ratio [5][6]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices continued to oscillate and consolidate on Thursday. The external market changed little. In the domestic market, the new - season harvest is in the middle and late stages. The continuous rainy weather in North China has brought new differences to the market. The short - term upward space of the futures price is still limited. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips or pay attention to the reverse spread of the corn 1 - 5 spread [6]. - **Soybean No.1**: The main 01 contract of soybean No.1 rose on Thursday. The high - quality soybeans in Northeast China are in high demand, and due to low valuation, farmers are reluctant to sell. After continuous rises, the long - position holders are cautious, and the selling - hedging drive increases. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [7]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut futures price continued to oscillate and decline. The market lacks positive news. The new - season peanuts are gradually on the market, but the harvest weather is unfavorable, which increases concerns about the new - season output. Although the planting area has increased, the expected increase in production is discounted. There is still pressure from seasonal supply on the spot and futures prices. It is recommended to hold long positions for the time being [7]. - **Pigs**: The futures price of pigs adjusted weakly on Thursday. The spot price stopped falling this week, and the futures price rebounded after reducing positions. The market volatility remained high due to the Sino - US tariff restart negotiation. The current pig - to - grain ratio has fallen below 5. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being for conservative investors. For mid - term investment, wait for the confirmation of capacity reduction and then buy the 2607 contract on dips [8][9]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price rebounded after reducing positions on Thursday. The spot price was stable with a slight decline this week, and the decline slowed down. The egg futures price has fallen below the historical low since 2016. It is not advisable to chase short - selling. Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy the 2512 contract on dips when the price is below the farmers' cash cost [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - Most varieties in the feed, breeding, and oil and fat industries are expected to oscillate and adjust. For example, soybean No.1, soybean No.2, peanuts, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all in an oscillating adjustment state. Corn and corn starch are expected to be in a low - level oscillation. Pigs and eggs are in an oscillating bottom - seeking state [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see, such as soybean No.1 11 - 1, soybean No.2 11 - 1, etc. For the corn 5 - 1 spread, it is recommended to go long on dips with a reference target of 180 - 200. For the pig 1 - 3 spread, it is recommended to do a positive spread on dips [13]. - **Inter - variety Arbitrage**: For some spreads, such as 01 soybean oil - palm oil, it is recommended to operate bearishly; for 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, it is recommended to operate bullishly; for the 01 contract oil - meal ratio of beans and rapeseeds, it is recommended to operate bullishly [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, etc. For example, the spot price of soybean No.1 is 3980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract is - 133 yuan/ton [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, including CNF prices, import duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the profit is zero [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It presents the inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils. For example, the port inventory of soybeans is 773.35 (with a change of 21.92), and the operating rate of soybean processing plants is 58.00% [17]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [18]. 3.2.3 Breeding - It includes the daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs, such as the price, weight, and profit of pigs, as well as the price, production rate, and inventory of eggs [19][20][21][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - The report provides a series of charts to track the fundamentals of the breeding, oilseeds and oils, and feed sectors, including the closing prices of futures contracts, spot prices, basis, spreads, production, export, inventory, and other data of various varieties [24][35][52]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The report shows the historical volatility of futures prices of varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [86][87][88]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - It presents the warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the pig and egg indexes [91][92][94].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market is strong, and copper prices have risen. With uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, but an improvement in sentiment, and tight copper raw material supply, copper prices may remain strong [2][3]. - Aluminum prices continue to strengthen. With the marginal easing of Sino - US trade tensions and low domestic aluminum ingot inventory, aluminum prices may further rise in the short term [5][6]. - Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term. With an increase in lead ore port inventory, an improvement in the operating rate of lead smelters, and a decrease in downstream finished product inventory, combined with a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. With a decrease in domestic zinc ore inventory, an increase in domestic zinc ingot inventory, and a high structural risk of LME zinc, along with a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market [11][12]. - Tin prices may remain high and oscillate in the short term. With slow tin mine复产 in Myanmar and strict crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia, and a marginal improvement in downstream consumption during the peak season [13][14]. - Nickel prices are recommended to be observed in the short term. With marginal easing of Sino - US trade frictions, but significant refined nickel inventory pressure, and long - term support from US monetary policy and domestic policies [15][16]. - The price of lithium carbonate may continue to rise. With a decrease in domestic social inventory and an improvement in fundamentals, attention should be paid to the pressure from supply recovery and industrial hedging [19][20]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term. With support for ore prices in the short term but potential pressure after the rainy season, and an over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end, but the possibility of a strong non - ferrous metal sector driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation [22][23]. - Stainless steel prices may continue to improve. With Qing Shan Group's price - supporting attitude and an improvement in market confidence, the key lies in the release of downstream demand [25][26]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy has limited upward space. With strong cost support but high warehouse receipts and large delivery pressure on near - month contracts [28][29]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Conditions**: The LME 3M copper contract rose 1.49% to $10,817/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract reached 86,730 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 75 to 136,925 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts declined. Domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 36,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the futures, and in Guangdong, it was at a premium of 65 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 1,000 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference widened to 3,360 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy**: Due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations and tight copper raw material supply, copper prices may remain strong. The operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 85,600 - 87,200 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 10,680 - 10,950 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: The LME aluminum rose 2.12% to $2,865/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract reached 21,265 yuan/ton. The position of the SHFE weighted contract increased by 4.3 to 560,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 67,000 tons. The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.7 tons, and that of aluminum rods decreased by 0.25 tons. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline. The spot in East China was at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.5 to 478,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts remained high [5]. - **Strategy**: With the marginal easing of Sino - US trade tensions and low domestic aluminum ingot inventory, the short - term price may further rise. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be 21,050 - 21,380 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M aluminum is 2,820 - 2,890 dollars/ton [6]. Lead - **Market Conditions**: The SHFE lead index rose 2.28% to 17,563 yuan/ton. The LME 3S lead rose 14.5 to $2,007/ton. The refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead futures inventory was 23,700 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 244,100 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 26,100 tons [8]. - **Strategy**: With an increase in lead ore port inventory, an improvement in the operating rate of lead smelters, and a decrease in downstream finished product inventory, combined with a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: The SHFE zinc index rose 1.54% to 22,347 yuan/ton. The LME 3S zinc rose 31.5 to $3,034.5/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 162,100 tons. The LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 10,900 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: With a decrease in domestic zinc ore inventory, an increase in domestic zinc ingot inventory, and a high structural risk of LME zinc, along with a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal market, zinc prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [12]. Tin - **Market Conditions**: On October 23, 2025, the closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 281,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar was slow, and Indonesia cracked down on illegal mining. The combined operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased to 29.72%. Downstream demand in new energy vehicles and AI servers was strong, but traditional consumer electronics and the photovoltaic sector were weak. The operating rate of tin solder in domestic sample enterprises in August recovered to 73.22% [13]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may lead to a decline in market risk appetite, but tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with the recovery of demand in the peak season, tin prices may remain high and oscillate. It is recommended to observe. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is 34,000 - 36,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: The SHFE nickel main contract was flat at 121,380 yuan/ton. The spot market trading was average. The price of nickel ore was stable, the price of nickel pig iron was weak, and the price of MHP was high due to increased demand from downstream industries [15]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, with the marginal easing of Sino - US trade frictions and significant refined nickel inventory pressure, it is recommended to observe. If the price drops enough, consider buying on dips. The operating range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index rose 2.24% to 77,569 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,700 yuan, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.28%. The LC2601 contract rose 3.66% to 79,940 yuan. The domestic production of lithium carbonate increased by 1.1% to 21,308 tons, and the inventory decreased by 1.7% to 130,366 tons [19]. - **Strategy**: With strong downstream demand and a decrease in domestic social inventory, the price may continue to rise. Pay attention to the pressure from supply recovery and industrial hedging. The operating range of the GFEX lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 77,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Conditions**: On October 22, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.32% to 2,848 yuan/ton. The position increased by 0.6 to 475,000 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2,800 yuan/ton, at a discount of 4 yuan/ton to the 11 - contract. The MYSTEEL Australian FOB price decreased by 1 to $314/ton, and the import profit and loss was 21 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.09 to 221,300 tons. The CIF price of Guinea ore was 72.5 dollars/ton, and that of Australian ore was 69 dollars/ton [22]. - **Strategy**: Ore prices have short - term support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. However, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous metal sector to be strong. It is recommended to observe in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Conditions**: The SHFE stainless steel main contract rose 0.43% to 12,765 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged. The raw material prices were stable. The futures inventory was 74,376 tons, and the social inventory increased to 1,027,400 tons, a decrease of 1.33% [25]. - **Strategy**: With Qing Shan Group's price - supporting attitude and an improvement in market confidence, the key lies in the release of downstream demand. If terminal procurement can continue, the market improvement trend may continue [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Conditions**: The main AD2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.54% to 20,625 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract decreased slightly to 25,700 lots, and the trading volume was 5,500 lots. The warehouse receipts increased by 0.02 to 47,800 tons. The price of domestic and imported ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton. The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.09 to 75,300 tons, and the in - plant inventory of aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.1 to 60,700 tons [28]. - **Strategy**: With strong cost support but high warehouse receipts, the delivery pressure on near - month contracts is large, and the upward price space is relatively limited [29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upcoming Sino-US business talks in Malaysia and Trump's softened signals are expected to boost market risk appetite, but market trading volume has not increased, and short - term market will remain volatile at high levels [2]. - Various commodity futures have different trends and investment suggestions based on their respective supply - demand situations, policy expectations, and external factors. Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index Futures - Market is expected to be volatile at high levels in the short term, not advisable to chase high. One can try to sell out - of - the - money put options at support levels or construct bull call spreads [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The trend is volatile, waiting for new policy guidance. Unilateral strategies should be on the sidelines, and positive arbitrage strategies can be considered due to the rebound of IRR [2]. Precious Metals - Gold has stabilized above $4000 and may enter a consolidation phase. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money option straddles is recommended. Silver has stabilized near the support level of $47 [2]. Container Shipping Index Futures - The main contract is oscillating upwards, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices are following coal prices. Unilateral strategies should be on the sidelines, and operations such as long coking coal and short hot - rolled coils can be considered [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are rising due to the improvement of risk appetite. Other non - ferrous metals have different trends and price ranges, with corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are rebounding, but there is long - term supply pressure. Different chemical products have various supply - demand situations and investment strategies [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different trends, such as soybeans, hogs, and corn, with corresponding support or pressure levels and investment suggestions [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - Glass and rubber have their own price trends and investment strategies. New energy commodities like polysilicon and lithium carbonate also have specific trends and reference price ranges [2].

2025年10月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：市场情绪转好、美豆偏强，或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：偏强震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 8 | | 棉花：新棉成本上移支撑棉花期价 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 11 | | 生猪：短期屠宰、肥标及二育情绪共振 | 12 | | 花生：关注现货 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 油脂基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,132 ...

2025 年 10 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：市场情绪转好、美豆偏强，或反弹震荡 豆一：偏强震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 期货研究 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4113 | +63（+1.56%） 4115 | +34（+0.83%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2938 | +66（+2.03%） 2939 | +23（+0.79%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1045 +9 | （+0.87%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | +2.1 292 | n a （+0.72%） | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 较昨+20； 2970～2980， 持平或-10； M2601+60/+70/+100， | 现货基差M2601+80， ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.22% and the Shenzhen Component Index also up by 0.22%, indicating a positive market sentiment despite earlier declines [2][3]. Market Performance - The three major A-share indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3922.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13025.45 points, and the ChiNext Index at 3062.16 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 16439 billion, a slight decrease of 239 billion from the previous day [2]. - The market saw a significant shift from a high number of declining stocks (around 3600) to only 2100 by the end of the trading session, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [3]. Role of CITIC Securities - CITIC Securities played a crucial role in lifting the market, driving the entire brokerage sector up by 1% and positively impacting major stocks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Kweichow Moutai, and China Petroleum [3][4]. - The brokerage sector was seen as having a demand for a rebound, as it remained relatively low compared to the already rising insurance and banking sectors [4]. Market Dynamics - The market experienced a "seesaw" effect, where the rise in bank stocks initially led to a decline in individual stocks until the bank stocks stabilized [5]. - The trading volume significantly decreased during a period of market indecision, allowing CITIC Securities to effectively influence the market [5]. Sector Performance - The coal and energy metal sectors showed strong performance, driven by seasonal factors, while the engineering machinery and mining sectors faced declines [6]. - The semiconductor sector saw a downturn, reflecting the overall decline in U.S. tech stocks, indicating a correlation between the Chinese and U.S. markets [6]. Local Market Trends - A surge in Shenzhen local stocks was noted, attributed to a recent document from the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission aimed at improving the quality of mergers and acquisitions [7][8]. - The median stock price increase in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 0.22%, aligning with the overall index performance, which is a rare occurrence [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 23 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 强预期支撑，煤焦强势运行 核心观点 焦炭：10 月 23 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1768 元/吨，日内录得 4.21%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 4.01 万手，较前一交易日仓差为 +1289 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1470 元/吨，周 环比上涨 1.38%。近期，焦炭供需双降，其中供应端减量较为明显，且产 业链库存整体下降，基本面相对中性，向上驱动主要来自焦煤供应端和中 美贸易谈判预期。 焦煤：10 月 23 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1258.5 点，日内上涨 5.14%。截至 收盘，主力合约持仓量为 68.40 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+86290 手。 现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1310.0 元/吨，周环比上涨 3.97%。整体来看，强预期支撑焦煤期货日内走强，后续关注中美贸易措 施结果以及主产区供应变化。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建 ...