1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait for signs of OPEC's export price - support willingness by observing export decline when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at low levels. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. The improvement in demand from reserves and compound fertilizer production, along with a seasonal decline in supply, has led to a better supply - demand situation. With export policy and cost support, it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. It is advisable to buy on dips [6]. - For rubber, adopt a neutral - to - bullish approach. Suggest short - term buying on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10]. - For PVC, the industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand. Before substantial production cuts, it is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [13][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on non - integrated styrene profits as the non - integrated styrene profit is neutral - to - low and has room for upward valuation repair [18]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, wait for a change in the cost - side supply - oversupply pattern in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [24]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [27]. - For PTA, with the stabilization and recovery of processing fees, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium - term. Although the current valuation is neutral - to - low, pay attention to the rebound risk due to an increase in unexpected maintenance [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main crude oil futures on INE closed down 10.30 yuan/barrel, a 2.26% decline, at 446.10 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 58.00 yuan/ton (2.34%) to 2418.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures dropped 52.00 yuan/ton (1.70%) to 3014.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed a 1.91 - million - barrel draw in arrival inventory to 205.87 million barrels, a 2.03 - million - barrel build in gasoline commercial inventory to 87.33 million barrels, a 1.13 - million - barrel draw in diesel commercial inventory to 90.57 million barrels, and a 0.90 - million - barrel build in total refined oil commercial inventory to 177.90 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high. Currently, wait and see for signs of OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The Taicang price dropped by 7, the Lunan price remained stable, the Inner Mongolia price fell by 5, the 01 contract on the futures market dropped by 23 yuan to 2066 yuan/ton, and the basis was +7. The 1 - 5 spread was +11, reported at - 77 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at low levels. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract dropped by 3 yuan to 1643 yuan, the basis was +37, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 4, reported at - 68 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. The improvement in demand from reserves and compound fertilizer production, along with a seasonal decline in supply, has led to a better supply - demand situation. With export policy and cost support, it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. It is advisable to buy on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were weakly consolidating. The potential bullish factors include the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia and low inventory warrants on the exchange. The bulls are optimistic about the seasonal increase and demand expectations, while the bears are concerned about weak demand, uncertain macro - expectations, and the EUDR postponement. The tire factory operating rate was mixed, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish approach. Suggest short - term buying on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract dropped by 64 yuan to 4367 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4360 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 7 (+24) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 287 (+8) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.9% (down 0.3%), with the calcium - carbide method at 82.7% (down 1%) and the ethylene method at 73.4% (up 1.1%). The downstream operating rate was 49.1% (down 0.5%), and both factory and social inventories increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand. Before substantial production cuts, it is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [13][15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both declined. The non - integrated styrene profit was - 225.25 yuan/ton (up 15.5 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 67.29% (down 1.66%), and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 1.59 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 42.34% (up 0.10%), with mixed operating rates for PS, EPS, and ABS [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on non - integrated styrene profits as the non - integrated styrene profit is neutral - to - low and has room for upward valuation repair [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6557 yuan/ton (down 91 yuan/ton), the spot price was 6650 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the basis was 78 yuan/ton (strengthened by 41 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 84.12% (down 0.05%). The production enterprise and trader inventories decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 44.8% (up 0.11%). The LL1 - 5 spread was - 53 yuan/ton (widened by 9 yuan/ton) [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6192 yuan/ton (down 74 yuan/ton), the spot price was 6270 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan/ton), and the basis was 69 yuan/ton (strengthened by 14 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 77.97% (up 0.8%). The production enterprise, trader, and port inventories all decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 53.7% (up 0.13%). The LL - PP spread was 365 yuan/ton (narrowed by 17 yuan/ton) [22][23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, wait for a change in the cost - side supply - oversupply pattern in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract dropped by 62 yuan to 6780 yuan, the PX CFR price dropped by 9 dollars to 832 dollars, and the basis was 7 yuan (+26). The 1 - 3 spread was 0 yuan (+36). The Chinese and Asian operating rates both decreased slightly. Some overseas plants restarted, and some domestic PTA plants were under maintenance. The November PX exports from South Korea to China decreased year - on - year, and the inventory increased in October [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract dropped by 50 yuan to 4644 yuan, the East China spot price dropped by 20 yuan to 4630 yuan, and the basis was - 26 yuan (+4). The 1 - 5 spread was - 64 yuan (+12). The PTA operating rate remained unchanged, with some domestic plant changes. The downstream operating rate increased slightly, but the terminal operating rate decreased. The social inventory decreased in November, and the processing fees increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the stabilization and recovery of processing fees, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract dropped by 10 yuan to 3691 yuan, the East China spot price dropped by 45 yuan to 3654 yuan, and the basis was - 11 yuan (-2). The 1 - 5 spread was - 116 yuan (-8). The supply - side operating rate decreased slightly, with some plant restarts and shutdowns. The downstream operating rate increased slightly, but the terminal operating rate decreased. The import arrival forecast was 15.5 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 6.6 million tons [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium - term. Although the current valuation is neutral - to - low, pay attention to the rebound risk due to an increase in unexpected maintenance [30].

投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/12/9 | 指标 | | 12月8日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 110 | | 1600 | ここここ 18/19 ----- 22/23 | | - -- -- 19/20 - -- -- 23/24 | == - 24/25 | | ===== 21/22 - 25/26 | | | 天津 日照 | 50 -10 | | 1200 800 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | 张家港 | 10 | -14 | -400 | | | | | | | | | | | | 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 | 04/24 | | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 10/27 11/27 12/28 | | | | | 东莞 | - ...

2025 年 12 月 09 日 尿素：仓单增量明显，弱势运行 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,646 | 1,673 | -27 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,651 | 1,682 | -31 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 216,711 | 110,200 | 106511 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 167,074 | 200,353 | -33279 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 11,526 | 10,485 | 1041 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 715,690 | 370,685 | 345005 | | | | 山东地区基差 | | 4 4 | 4 7 | - 3 | | | 基 差 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -86 | -113 | 2 7 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, the market is oscillating upwards. The demand has improved due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With support from export policies and costs, it is expected to build a bottom through oscillation. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [8]. - For rubber, a neutral - bullish approach is currently adopted. It is recommended to buy on short - term dips and exit quickly. A hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested to be held [13]. - For PVC, the industry's comprehensive profit is at a historical low, but supply is high and demand is weak. With an oversupply situation, it is recommended to short on rallies [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported by cost changes in Q1 next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in December. With a neutral valuation, it is recommended to consider going long on dips [26]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short term. It is recommended to consider going long on dips based on expectations [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 4.20 yuan/barrel, or 0.93%, to 457.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also showed increases. European ARA weekly data showed mixed inventory changes in refined products, with a net decrease of 0.39 million barrels in total refined oil inventory [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 5, remained stable in Lunan, and decreased by 7.5 in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 12 yuan to 2089 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9 [5]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market consolidates. With high inventory and supply pressure, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong and Henan decreased by 20, remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract decreased by 27 yuan to 1646 yuan, with a basis of + 34 [8]. - **Strategy**: The market is oscillating upwards. With improved supply - demand and support from policies and costs, it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is consolidating weakly. The exchange's RU inventory is low, which is a potential bullish factor. Tire factory operating rates are mixed, and the social inventory of natural rubber has increased [11]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - bullish approach, buy on short - term dips and exit quickly, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract rose 5 yuan to 4431 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The cost of ethylene increased, while the price of caustic soda decreased. The overall operating rate decreased, and both factory and social inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy**: With high supply and weak demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both increased. The supply - side upstream operating rate decreased, and the port inventory of styrene increased. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy**: When the inventory reversal point appears, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased by 68 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 40 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [21]. - **Strategy**: The long - term contradiction has shifted, and it is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased by 36 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [23][24]. - **Strategy**: In a weak supply - demand situation with high inventory, it may be supported by cost changes in Q1 next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract rose 56 yuan to 6842 yuan. The load of PX and PTA decreased slightly. The inventory increased in October, and the valuation is at a neutral level [25]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to slightly accumulate inventory in December. With a neutral valuation, consider going long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4694 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 20 yuan. The PTA load remained unchanged, and the downstream load increased slightly. The inventory decreased in November [26]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may maintain a high level in the short term. Consider going long on dips based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 22 yuan to 3701 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 60 yuan. The supply - side load decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased significantly [28]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. Short on rallies in the medium term [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals have some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [4]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term, and supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and there is support at the bottom. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [6]. - For rubber, a neutral - bullish view is taken. It is recommended to buy on dips with a short - term trading approach and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, the supply is strong while the demand is weak in China. The fundamentals are poor, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended before substantial production cuts in the industry [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, it may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [28]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand is likely to maintain a high level in the short term. It is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies [31]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.53%, to 453.70 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures also had varying degrees of increase [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when oil prices fall [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 25, while those in Lunan and Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 36 yuan to 2077 yuan/ton, with a basis of +10 and a 1 - 5 spread of +2, reporting - 4 [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the fundamentals have some pressure and are expected to consolidate at a low level [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 10, while those in Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 1673 yuan, with a basis of +27 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 6, reporting - 63 [6]. - **Strategy**: Consider buying on dips as the supply - demand situation has improved and there is support at the bottom [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber was oscillating weakly. The warehouse receipts of the exchange's RU inventory were low. The start - up rate of tire factories was sluggish [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - bullish strategy, buy on dips with a short - term trading approach, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 74 yuan to 4426 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4410 (- 50) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 (+24) yuan/ton and a 1 - 5 spread of - 291 (- 9) yuan/ton. The overall start - up rate was 79.9%, a decrease of 0.3% month - on - month [14]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies before substantial production cuts in the industry due to strong supply and weak demand [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene increased, and the basis decreased. The spot and futures prices of styrene decreased, and the basis increased. The upstream start - up rate decreased, and the port inventory of styrene increased significantly [18]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene when the inventory reversal point appears [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price of polyethylene decreased by 109 yuan/ton to 6674 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 6740 yuan/ton. The basis was 64 yuan/ton, strengthening by 29 yuan. The upstream start - up rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [21]. - **Strategy**: Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies as the long - term contradiction has shifted [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price of polypropylene decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 6287 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 6360 yuan/ton. The basis was 70 yuan/ton, strengthening by 15 yuan. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the change in the supply - surplus pattern in the cost side in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PX decreased by 84 yuan to 6786 yuan. The CFR price decreased by 7 dollars to 838 dollars. The load in China and Asia decreased slightly. The inventory increased month - on - month in October [27]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - buying opportunities on dips as it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PTA decreased by 46 yuan to 4678 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 20 yuan to 4670 yuan. The basis was - 32 yuan (0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 74 yuan (- 4). The load remained flat, and the downstream load increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of ethylene glycol decreased by 103 yuan to 3723 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 63 yuan to 3759 yuan. The basis was - 15 yuan (- 8), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 109 yuan (- 15). The supply load decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium term as the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak [31].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price will oscillate within a range due to insufficient fundamental contradictions [2] - The supply - demand pattern of glass and soda ash remains unchanged, and their prices will oscillate weakly [2] - The building material consumption data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is fair, and their alloy futures have rebounded [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures oscillated downward with active trading and decreased positions. Regionally, the spot market was weak and stable. This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 59.442 million heavy cases, a 4.68% decrease from the previous week. Although the increase in cold - repair of glass production lines improved demand slightly, the supply contraction was insufficient, and the inventory, though decreasing, was still high. Glass factories need long - term losses to clear capacity [2] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures oscillated downward. The spot price was stable, with mainly rigid demand purchases. The production, sales, and inventory data of soda ash all declined, slightly alleviating the supply - demand contradiction, but the inventory was still high. With the expected increase in cold - repair of float glass, the demand for heavy soda ash is challenged, suppressing the price [2] Strategy - Glass: Oscillation [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [3] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: The building material consumption was strong and inventory reduction was fair. The silicomanganese futures rebounded following the black market. The spot market was strong. Due to continuous losses, the production and operating rate of enterprises continued to decline, but the reduction was insufficient, and the inventory reached a new high. Port manganese ore inventory increased slightly, and the total manganese element inventory was stable, providing cost support [4] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures rebounded following black commodities. The Hebei Iron and Steel Group entered the market for procurement, and the market was waiting for its price guidance. Currently, ferrosilicon has high production and inventory, and demand is weakening. As the loss - time of enterprises extends, the operating rate decreases, and the inventory declines, but the high inventory still suppresses the price [4] Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [5] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing price stability amid a backdrop of reduced production and inventory challenges, with expectations of limited demand in the near term [1][2][3] Pricing - As of December 4, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold-rolled stainless steel is 12,700 yuan/ton, and the price in Foshan is 12,650 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1] - The basis has increased by 40 yuan/ton to 445 yuan/ton [1] Raw Materials - The nickel market remains stable, with Philippine mines primarily fulfilling prior orders, while new tenders have not yet commenced in northern mines [1][3] - In Indonesia, the domestic benchmark price has decreased by 0.52-0.91 USD per wet ton, with mainstream domestic premiums maintaining at +26 [1][3] - Nickel-iron prices continue to decline, with major steel mills' new tenders dropping to a low of 880 yuan/nickel (tax included) [1][3] Production and Supply - In November, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is estimated at 3.4592 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61,800 tons (1.6% drop) but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - December's crude steel output is projected to be 3.2857 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.02% but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - Overall production cuts by steel mills are limited, although year-end maintenance is increasing, potentially leading to more proactive reductions due to loss pressures [2] Inventory - Recent social inventory reduction has been sluggish, with Wuxi and Foshan's 300 series social inventory at 492,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 10,400 tons [2] - As of December 4, stainless steel futures inventory stands at 62,157 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1,316 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market has seen slight price increases, with stable mainstream prices in Wuxi and Foshan, while traders focus on digesting existing inventory [3] - The macroeconomic environment shows weak ADP employment data, increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, alongside a boost in infrastructure investment expectations due to the issuance of additional government bonds [3] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with limited demand from downstream sectors such as home appliances and construction, leading to a general reluctance to stockpile [3] Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation within the price range of 12,300 to 12,700 yuan/ton, with attention on the execution of production cuts by steel mills and nickel-iron prices [3]

【冠通期货研究报告】 内需支撑，库存去化 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 3 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开高走，日内偏强。期货盘面数日反弹，现货成交继续增量， 随着订单的增多，部分工厂出现停售。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素 出厂报价范围多在 1620-1680 元/吨，河南工厂报价偏低端。气头装置限气减产 拉开序幕，内蒙部分装置已开启检修，后续西南地区本月也将逐渐开始停产减 产，目前日产依然处于 19 万吨-20 吨之间。农需秋季肥扫尾后，储备型农需逢 低拿货为主。复合肥工厂开工负荷逐步抬升，东北地区复合肥工厂开启生产， 已有部分工厂满负荷。工厂处于冬储生产阶段，12 月份将继续高负荷生产，目 前预收订单生产中，后续厂内成品库存将继续增加，冬储提供需求支撑，尿素 价格预计窄幅波动，呈现一定的抗跌性。储备型需求及复合肥开工率增加带来 的需求增量，促使库存进一步去化，预计后续随着气头装置的停产限产，库存 将依然表现为流畅去化。终端交易顺畅，虽日产一直处于同比偏高位置，但库 存维持去化，且本期已降至同比偏低水平。综合来看，基本面及下游积极性尚 可，可支撑盘面进一步走强。 2025 年 12 月 3 日，尿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral neutral, pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between MA2605 and MA2609 when the spread is low [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation in 2026 is expected to improve compared to 2025. The slowdown of non - integrated methanol production and the commissioning of downstream MTO devices are the main drivers. Traditional downstream industries also have a certain commissioning growth rate, which may gradually digest the high port inventory. Overseas, the pressure of new production capacity is not significant, and the duration of the winter maintenance at the end of 2025 will determine the absolute level of port inventory in 2026 [1][8] - The annual supply - demand is estimated to be balanced, with a significant improvement compared to 2025. The key drivers are the commissioning of traditional downstream industries and MTO devices, which boost demand. If there are supply - side problems in overseas operations, the inventory clearance rate of methanol will accelerate. There is an expectation of inventory reduction, but the current high inventory is a major issue [7][21] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Overseas supply: In 2026, the nominal new foreign production capacity is 1.65 million tons, and the actual production capacity put into operation weighted by commissioning time is about 0.62 million tons/year, with an actual capacity growth rate of about 0.8%. The total import increment in 2026 is expected to be 1.37 million tons, with an import growth rate of about 9.6% [5] - Domestic non - integrated production: In 2026, the nominal new non - integrated production capacity is 1.2 million tons, and the actual production capacity put into operation weighted by commissioning time is about 0.98 million tons/year, with an actual capacity growth rate of 1.1% [5] - Demand increment: The new external - purchase methanol MTO devices will increase the methanol demand by 2.2 million tons/year after weighted by commissioning time, with a demand growth rate of 13.8%. In 2026, the new production capacity of traditional downstream industries will increase the nominal methanol demand by 3.33 million tons/year, and the actual demand increment is 2.5 million tons/year, driving the methanol demand growth by 7.9% [6] 3.2 Market Analysis - The supply - demand situation in 2026 is expected to improve compared to 2025. The slowdown of non - integrated methanol production and the commissioning of downstream MTO devices are the main factors. Traditional downstream industries also have a certain commissioning growth rate, which may gradually digest the high port inventory. Overseas, the pressure of new production capacity is not significant, and the duration of the winter maintenance at the end of 2025 will determine the absolute level of port inventory in 2026 [8] 3.3 Methanol Annual Balance Sheet Estimation - 2026 MTO and traditional downstream commissioning boost demand, and the high - level inventory is expected to be cleared. The annual supply - demand is estimated to be balanced, with a significant improvement compared to 2025. The key drivers are the commissioning of traditional downstream industries and MTO devices, which boost demand. If there are supply - side problems in overseas operations, the inventory clearance rate of methanol will accelerate [15][21] 3.4 Methanol Port Supply - Demand Analysis - New external devices: In 2026, the pressure of new overseas methanol production capacity is not significant. The nominal new production capacity is 1.65 million tons/year, and the actual capacity growth rate weighted by commissioning time is about 0.8% [22][23] - Overseas existing devices: In 2025, the Iranian methanol supply showed a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half. The winter maintenance at the end of 2025 was late, and the actual maintenance duration needs attention. Non - Iranian supply also had different performance in different regions [25][26][31] - Internal - external price ratio: In the context of high port inventory, the import was in an inverted state, and the overseas premium performance was average [43] - Port inventory: In 2025, the port inventory reached a historical high. The winter maintenance of Iran was later than expected, and the inventory pressure in December 2025 continued. The inventory in different regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China all reached historical highs [49] - MTO new situation: In 2026, the new commissioning plan of external - purchase MTO is the highest since 2020, mainly including Shandong Lianhong Phase II and Guangxi Huayi. The integrated MTO mainly focuses on the commissioning plan of CCM Yulin Phase II in Q3 of 2026 [64] - MTO existing devices: In 2025, the operation of external - purchase MTO was acceptable. The maintenance was not concentrated, and the loss gradually recovered after the cease - fire between Iran and Israel [70][72] - Regional price difference: Pay attention to the sustainability of the window for port methanol to flow back to the inland [79] 3.5 Inland Supply - Demand Analysis - Inland methanol new situation: In 2026, the domestic commissioning pressure is not significant. The planned commissioning is 5.13 million tons/year, but non - integrated methanol devices are only 1.1 million tons/year [83] - Inland existing device load: Coal - based maintenance is mainly seasonal, and the winter maintenance of gas - based devices is still slow [90] - Non - integrated coal - based: The profit of coal - based methanol was good in the first three quarters of 2025, and the operation was acceptable [91] - Natural gas - based: The winter maintenance of southwest gas - based devices was late in 2025 [97] - Coke oven gas - based: Pay attention to the maintenance of coking enterprises. The operation of coke oven gas - based methanol has a certain long - term correlation with the coking operation rate [99][103] - Inland inventory: In 2025, the inventory of northwest enterprises decreased compared to 2024, and the inventory of east - China enterprises increased after October [105] - Traditional downstream performance: In 2025, acetic acid entered a loss and production - reduction stage after concentrated commissioning, while MTBE performed well driven by exports [109] - Traditional downstream new situation: In 2026, the new commissioning scale of traditional downstream industries is still considerable. The nominal new methanol demand is 3.33 million tons/year, and the actual new demand is 2.5 million tons/year [122][125]