Z0019556 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月12日 期货和现货价格 | NIXTHANNIA | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 6月10日 | 6669 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 765.0 | 771.0 | -6.0 | -0.78% | | | 原木2509 | 784.5 | 785.5 | -1.0 | -0.13% | | | 原木2511 | 790.0 | 790.5 | -0.5 | -0.06% | | | 7-9价差 | -19.5 | -14.5 | -5.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -5.5 | -5.0 | -0.5 | | | | 7-11价差 | -25.0 | -19.5 | -5.5 | | | | 07合约基差 | -15.0 | -21.0 | 6.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -34.5 | -35.5 | 1.0 | | | | 11合约基差 | -40.0 | -40.5 | 0.5 | | 元/立方米 | | 日 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The low inventory currently is the main reason supporting the rise in copper prices. The tariff policy is expected to drive the global copper trade, and copper prices are mainly fluctuating strongly. Attention should be paid to inventory changes under the influence of tariff expectations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly during the day. Citibank postponed the Fed's interest rate cut expectation by two months and predicted a 75 - basis - point cut this year. In May, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [1] - On the supply side, the port inventory of refined copper ore has been significantly reduced, and the supply of copper raw materials has tightened. As of June 9, 2025, the spot smelting fee was - 42.9 dollars per thousand tons, and the spot refining fee was - 4.28 cents per pound. The supply of copper concentrate is currently in short supply, and smelters face the risk of production reduction due to deepening losses. The inventory reduction in other regions due to steel tariffs has deepened the supply shortage [1] - On the demand side, as of April 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.2827 million tons, a decrease of 89,700 tons or 6.54% from the previous month. Entering the off - season, the apparent consumption is expected to continue to decline in May. Although major indicators such as PMI have improved, the operating rates of downstream copper foil, copper tubes, etc. have decreased month - on - month, and demand remains an important factor restricting the rise in copper prices [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Opened high, fluctuated, and closed up. The closing price was 78,880. The long positions of the top 20 were 130,482 lots, a decrease of 2,683 lots; the short positions were 132,136 lots, a decrease of 2,463 lots [4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 65 yuan per ton, and in South China was 45 yuan per ton. On June 9, 2025, the LME official price was 9,740 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 109 dollars per ton [4] Supply Side - As of the latest data on June 9, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 42.9 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.28 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of inventory, the SHFE copper inventory was 33,700 tons, a decrease of 496 tons from the previous period. As of June 9, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 51,500 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory was 120,400 tons, a slight decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory was 189,700 short tons, an increase of 1,843 short tons from the previous period [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **PTA**: Near - term TA开工 is gradually rising, polyester开工 is further declining due to bottle - chip production cuts, inventory is decreasing, and the basis is oscillating strongly with improved spot processing fees. PX domestic and overseas maintenance is returning,开工 is rising, PXN and its structure are weakening. With downstream decline and bottle - chip contradictions remaining, and new TA devices approaching operation, an inventory inflection point is near. Consider shorting processing fees at high levels [2]. - **MEG**: Near - term domestic maintenance and restarts co - exist, overall开工 is basically flat, port inventory is continuously decreasing due to low arrivals, downstream stocking levels are slightly falling, the basis is slightly weakening, and profitability remains high. Although near - term inventory is decreasing under oil - based large - device rotation maintenance, the monthly spread is greatly affected by warehouse receipts, and the absolute valuation is not low [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - term production cuts by Sanfangxiang and Jiangnan have led to a slight decline in开工 to 92.1%, sales are stable, and inventory is slightly accumulating. On the demand side, polyester yarn开工 is stable, raw material stocking is flat, finished - product inventory is increasing, and profitability is oscillating at a low level. With a slight decline in staple - fiber supply and an improvement in profitability due to polyester开工 decline caused by bottle - chip production cuts, but without obvious downstream improvement, profitability is expected to remain weak [2]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory is slightly decreasing with an absolute level not being high, the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is slightly rebounding with expected good tapping enthusiasm, and the trade war is easing. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, crude oil rose by $0.5 to $67.0, PTA spot price dropped by $80 to $6850, and the processing fee increased by $2. The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions was 2509(+208) [2]. - **Device Changes**: Honggang's 2.5 - million - ton device was put into operation, and Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 - million - ton device was under maintenance [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at $780, MEG domestic price dropped by $26 to $4382, and the coal - based profit decreased by $26 to $389 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Satellite's 900,000 - ton device was under maintenance, and Yankuang's 400,000 - ton device increased its load [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber dropped by $25 to $6575, and the profit increased by $40 to - $39 [2]. - **Device Changes**: No device maintenance information was reported, but Sanfangxiang and Jiangnan cut production [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, the US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber spot price remained at $1680, and the Shanghai full - latex rubber price rose by $320 to $13125 [3]. - **Other Indicators**: The national explicit inventory slightly decreased, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber slightly rebounded [3]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, the ethylene price remained at $780, the pure - benzene price in East China rose by $65 to $5920, and the styrene domestic profit remained at $138, while the EPS domestic profit dropped by $145 to $285 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual ratings for different agricultural products: - Oils and fats: Expected to be in a range-bound operation, with short-term pressure on rapeseed oil prices and potential for a rebound in palm oil [3]. - Protein meal: Expected to be in a range-bound operation, with soybean meal basis likely to continue to decline [3]. - Corn and starch: Expected to be in a range-bound operation, with potential for price increases in the medium term [3][4]. - Pigs: Expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend, with a near-term weak and far-term strong pattern [4]. - Natural rubber: Expected to continue its downward trend, with a high impact from commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment [5][7]. - Synthetic rubber: BR market is expected to temporarily stabilize, but with pressure above [8][9]. - Cotton: Expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend in June due to weakening demand [9]. - Sugar: Expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend in the long term, with short-term support around 5,700 yuan/ton [10]. - Pulp: Expected to be in a range-bound operation due to weak supply and demand and positive factors from delivery product valuation correction [10][12]. - Logs: Expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend, with opportunities to short near-term contracts or conduct 7-9 reverse spreads [10][12]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, pigs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It provides views on the supply and demand, price trends, and investment strategies for each product. Overall, the market for most agricultural products is expected to be in a range-bound operation, with some products showing weakening trends. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and fats**: MPOA data shows that the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil in May 2025 is 1.74 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.07%. Due to technical buying, US soybean prices rose on Wednesday, and the three major domestic oils oscillated and adjusted yesterday. The market is expected to be in a range-bound operation, with short-term pressure on rapeseed oil prices and potential for a rebound in palm oil [3]. - **Protein meal**: International soybean trade premiums and discounts are in a state of shock, and the net long position of CFTC has increased month-on-month. Domestically, soybean meal spot prices continue to decline, and soybean imports are expected to increase month-on-month. The market is expected to be in a range-bound operation, with soybean meal basis likely to continue to decline [3]. - **Corn and starch**: The domestic corn market is stable with a slight weakness, and port traders continue to wait and see. In the medium term, the tightening of imported grains further confirms the expectation of inventory reduction. The market is expected to be in a range-bound operation, with potential for price increases in the medium term [3][4]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is increasing while the demand is weak, and pig prices are running weakly. In the short term, the pressure on farmers to reduce weight and sell pigs is increasing, and the proportion of large pigs sold is increasing. In the long term, the sow production capacity is still at a high level, and the supply pressure in the third quarter is still large. The market is expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend, with a near-term weak and far-term strong pattern [4]. - **Natural rubber**: There are no new variables, and the market has stabilized. The supply side is affected by the rainy season in Thailand, and the raw material prices are dragged down by the futures market. The demand side shows weak recovery in tire production, and the finished product inventory pressure has been slightly relieved. The market is expected to continue its downward trend, with a high impact from commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment [5][7]. - **Synthetic rubber**: The market has temporarily stabilized. The price of butadiene has stabilized, and the market is at a historical low. The fundamentals of BR are relatively neutral, and the reduction of production by some private enterprises may help relieve the pressure on social inventory. The market is expected to temporarily stabilize, but with pressure above [8][9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are oscillating, and attention should be paid to consumption. The planting area of new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase year-on-year, and the yield may be high. The demand side shows that cotton consumption is relatively rigid, but it has gradually weakened seasonally in June. The market is expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend in June due to weakening demand [9]. - **Sugar**: The expected supply and demand in the next season are loose, and sugar prices are running weakly. The international market is optimistic about the sugar production in Brazil in the new season, and other major producing countries also have production increase expectations. The domestic market shows high sales and consumption rates and a decrease in industrial inventory. The market is expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend in the long term, with short-term support around 5,700 yuan/ton [10]. - **Pulp**: There is no major driving force for pulp, and it is mainly in a range-bound operation. The supply side shows a continuous decline in warehouse receipts and positive news from strikes and maintenance. The demand side is in a seasonal off-season, and there is no stockpiling action. The market is expected to be in a range-bound operation due to weak supply and demand and positive factors from delivery product valuation correction [10][12]. - **Logs**: The spot market is weak, and the futures market is declining. The supply and demand in the log market have weakened in June, and the short-term arrival pressure continues. The market is expected to be in a range-bound and weakening trend, with opportunities to short near-term contracts or conduct 7-9 reverse spreads [10][12]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the variety data monitoring for oils and fats, protein meal, corn, pigs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not provided in the given text.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Oscillating [6] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [6] - Scrap Steel: Oscillating [7] - Coke: Oscillating Weakly [7] - Coking Coal: Oscillating Weakly [10] - Glass: Oscillating Weakly [11] - Soda Ash: Oscillating Weakly [11] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [13] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [14] Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the macro - sentiment was weak, and the US further imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, causing the prices of black building materials to decline. However, the actual impact of tariffs was limited, and there were rumors of Mongolia increasing resource taxes, leading to a price rebound at night. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the manufacturing's rush for exports is less than expected. Although some electric furnaces and blast furnaces are in the red, the overall profitability provides cost support. Low valuations drive price rebounds, but the upside is limited [1][2]. - In terms of iron elements, the overseas supply increase is lower than expected, and the annual cumulative shipment is down year - on - year. The new projects' progress is slow, and the annual increase is revised down. Steel enterprises' profitability and orders are good, and the molten iron output is expected to remain high. Before September, the inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [2]. - For carbon elements, the coking coal production remains high, and the Mongolian coal port clearance is also at a high level, resulting in a loose supply. The coke production is at a high level, but coke enterprises face inventory reduction pressure, and the coking profit is shrinking. The coking coal inventory pressure upstream is increasing, and it's difficult to find price support [2]. - Regarding alloys, the arrival of South32 Australian ore at the port increases the pressure on oxidized ore spot. The ban on manganese ore exports by Gabon has no obvious impact on the domestic market. With the recovery of manganese ore shipments, the port inventory is rising, and the cost drag persists. The ferrosilicon supply increases slightly, and the downstream is eager to reduce inventory. The glass demand decline in the off - season is not obvious, and the supply - side news can cause market fluctuations. The soda ash supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Core Logic: The overseas supply increase is lower than expected, and the annual cumulative shipment is down year - on - year. New projects' progress is slow, and the annual increase is revised down. Steel enterprises' profitability and orders are good, and the molten iron output is expected to remain high, so the annual molten iron output is expected to be higher than last year. Before September, the inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The black sector rebounded last night, and iron ore also rose slightly [2][6]. - Outlook: The US tariff policy has limited actual negative impact on iron ore, but may cause pessimistic sentiment. Considering the uncertain policies, the tight supply - demand balance, and the fact that the price has factored in many negative factors, the room for further significant decline is limited [6]. Steel - Core Logic: The domestic policy is in a vacuum, and there are still tariff risks. The demand for the five major steel products rebounded this week, but the domestic demand outlook is weak. The molten iron output is high, and the steel production has increased. Although the supply - demand fundamentals improved this week and the inventory decreased, the falling raw material prices and pessimistic demand expectations suppress the price [6]. - Outlook: The fundamentals improved this week, but the outlook is still pessimistic, and the raw material prices are weakening. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The post - holiday scrap steel arrival was low, and the loss during off - peak electricity hours increased. The apparent demand for rebar rebounded slightly, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The supply was tight after the holiday, and the demand from electric furnaces and blast furnaces was affected. The inventory increased slightly [7]. - Outlook: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, the finished product price is under pressure, and the electric furnace loss is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Coke - Core Logic: The second round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the market is pessimistic. The supply is stable, but the demand is weakening as the molten iron output declines and the off - season approaches [7][9]. - Outlook: The falling coking coal price weakens the cost support, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [9]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: The market trading atmosphere is weak, and coal mines face shipment pressure. The supply is still loose as the production remains high and the Mongolian coal port clearance is high. The coke production is high, but coke enterprises face inventory reduction pressure, and the coking profit is shrinking. The upstream inventory pressure is increasing [10]. - Outlook: The market is pessimistic, the supply - demand is loose, and the high inventory suppresses the price. The price is expected to remain weak [10]. Glass - Core Logic: The off - season demand decline is not obvious, and the deep - processing demand improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. There was cold - repair and复产, and the supply pressure remains. The inventory decreased slightly, and the market is sensitive to supply - side news [3][11]. - Outlook: The real - world demand faces pressure in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price cuts in Hubei [11]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The supply pressure persists as some enterprises' production has recovered. The demand for heavy alkali is for rigid needs, and the increase in float glass daily melting is uncertain. The short - term inventory decreased due to maintenance, but the long - term surplus remains [11]. - Outlook: The supply surplus remains, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [11]. Ferrosilicon Manganese - Core Logic: The ferrosilicon manganese price was weak. The cost pressure is high as the market is bearish on raw materials, and the South32 Australian ore is arriving at the port. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak as the black market enters the off - season [13]. - Outlook: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to continue to decline as the manganese ore inventory rises and the coke price is falling [13]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The ferrosilicon price was weak. The supply increased slightly as some furnaces were restarted. The demand is weak as the steel market enters the off - season and the metal magnesium market is sluggish [14]. - Outlook: The supply and demand are both weak, and the demand may weaken further. The price is expected to oscillate under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and production [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - **Likely Factors**: Weekly decline in Shanghai Nickel and LME Nickel inventories, reduction in domestic stainless - steel social total inventory, and inventory depletion supports prices; firm nickel ore prices, stable and rising prices of nickel iron and intermediates, and cost - side support [2] - **Negative Factors**: High - level refined nickel production, rising global inventories, and the continuation of the pattern of strong supply and weak demand; overall weak spot demand, short - term restocking followed by a dull trading volume, and insufficient demand improvement [2] - **Trading Consultation Viewpoint**: The supply - demand contradiction has not deepened, inventory depletion is unsustainable, and the short - term will maintain a range - bound pattern [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The latest value of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 1,070 yuan (-0.88%); LME Nickel 3M is 15,305 dollars/ton, down 265 dollars (-1.51%); the trading volume is 145,554 lots, up 93,246 lots (178.26%); the position volume is 94,854 lots, up 65,523 lots (223.4%); the warehouse receipt number is 22,057 tons, down 193 tons (-0.87%) [3] - **Stainless - Steel Futures**: The latest value of stainless - steel main contract is 12,685 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan (-1%); the trading volume is 124,523 lots, up 25,621 lots (25.91%); the position volume is 90,669 lots, down 1,757 lots (-1.90%); the warehouse receipt number is 129,990 tons, down 9,131 tons (-6.56%) [3] - **Nickel Spot**: The latest value of Jinchuan Nickel is 123,525 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (0.73%); the latest value of imported nickel is 121,175 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan (0.66%) [3] - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory is 41,553 tons, down 836 tons; LME nickel inventory is 200,310 tons, up 930 tons; stainless - steel social inventory is 967.5 tons, down 6.4 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons, up 1,907.5 tons [3][5] 2. Charts and Graphs - **Nickel and Stainless - Steel Futures Price Trends**: Include the price trends of Shanghai Nickel futures main contract, LME Nickel (3 - month) electronic disk, and stainless - steel futures main contract [7][8] - **Nickel Spot Average Price Trend**: Shows the average price trends of nickel beans, 1 imported nickel, and SMM 1 electrolytic nickel [10] - **Supply and Inventory Trends**: Include the monthly production seasonality of Chinese refined nickel, the total monthly supply of Chinese primary nickel (including imports), domestic social inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans), and LME nickel inventory [12][13] - **Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron - Related Trends**: Include the average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB), Chinese port nickel ore inventory by port, Chinese nickel iron monthly production seasonality, and Indonesian nickel pig iron monthly production seasonality [14][17][20] - **Downstream Sulfuric Acid Nickel - Related Trends**: Include the premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate over primary nickel (plates), the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, and the profit of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China [22][24] - **Stainless - Steel - Related Trends**: Include the profit margin seasonality of Chinese 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coils, stainless - steel monthly production seasonality, and stainless - steel inventory seasonality [27][29][31]

Group 1 - The report highlights the relationship between contract goods and industrial enterprise profits, indicating that inventory destocking and order prosperity are key directions for asset allocation [5][7] - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI improved to 49.5%, reflecting a slight recovery in manufacturing market demand, although it remains below the first quarter average [11][12] - The report notes that the domestic equity market showed a mixed performance, with 18 industries rising and 13 falling, indicating sector-specific dynamics [6][20] Group 2 - The report discusses the impact of external factors such as the U.S. increasing steel import tariffs to 50%, which may affect related industries [17] - It mentions the extension of certain exemptions from the U.S. Section 301 tariffs on China, which could influence trade dynamics [19] - The report emphasizes the need for policies to support growth in light of ongoing economic challenges, particularly in the real estate sector [11][14] Group 3 - The analysis of industrial enterprise profits shows a 3.0% year-on-year increase in April 2025, despite a 2.7% decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), suggesting a complex relationship between costs and profitability [7][8] - The report identifies sectors such as agricultural product processing and electrical machinery as performing well, while sectors like automotive and power equipment faced declines [6][8] - The report indicates that the recovery in manufacturing is supported by a decrease in raw material costs, which may benefit midstream manufacturing leaders [7][8]

Group 1 - The main contract for short fiber futures showed a strong fluctuation, reaching a peak of 6528.00 yuan and closing at 6500.00 yuan, with an increase of 1.31% [1] - Supply side: Short fiber production load increased to approximately 96.2%, up by 2.1% month-on-month [1] - Demand side: Operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remain stable, with spinning at 80%, weaving at 69%, and dyeing at 77% [1] Group 2 - The short fiber price is expected to follow fluctuations in crude oil prices due to OPEC's decision to maintain production quotas [2] - China's polyester short fiber production was 161,400 tons, a decrease of 550 tons or 3.30% month-on-month, with an average capacity utilization rate of 85.33%, down by 2.91% [2] - Inventory levels: As of May 22, the factory equity inventory for polyester short fiber was 9.38 days, a decrease of 0.07 days, while physical inventory was 18.11 days, down by 0.13 days [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - **PTA**: Proximal TA start - up increased, polyester start - up decreased from high levels, inventory continued to decline, basis strengthened, and spot processing fees decreased but remained at a relatively high level. PX domestic start - up increased, there were unexpected overseas maintenance, PXN decreased slightly, the structure remained, isomerization and disproportionation benefits weakened slightly, and the US - Asia aromatics spread increased. In the future, polyester output is expected to decline, and the low processing fee state of bottle chips continues. TA has fully implemented maintenance in the first half of the year and still has production plans, so it has high requirements for further inventory reduction. When the downstream exceeds expectations, the inventory reduction link will gradually shift to PX. Pay attention to the opportunity to shrink the far - month TA processing fee [1] - **MEG**: Proximal domestic oil - based start - up decreased slightly, coal - based maintenance and restart coexisted, start - up decreased slightly, port inventory continued to decline due to less arrivals, downstream inventory levels decreased, basis strengthened, and profits continued to increase. Overall, there are unexpected device situations in the near term. With the supply of oil - based products decreasing more than expected and the short - term resilience of the demand side still existing, the reduction of port inventory is expected to be more significant. Pay attention to the staged positive set opportunity [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Proximal Fujian Jinlun had maintenance, start - up decreased to 93.2%, production and sales weakened month - on - month, and inventory increased slightly. On the demand side, the start - up of polyester yarn increased, raw material inventory decreased, and inventory increased month - on - month, with benefits still weakening. Generally, the benefits of staple fiber are low, but the start - up has not decreased significantly. With high self - supply and downstream profit under pressure, the fundamentals are not expected to improve significantly. However, the disk processing fee has been compressed to a relatively low level and is expected to remain weak. Pay attention to subsequent production reduction actions [2] - **Natural Rubber**: The national explicit inventory decreased slightly, and the absolute level is not high. The price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded slightly, and the enthusiasm for tapping rubber at this price is expected to be okay. The strategy is to wait and see [2] - **Styrene and Derivatives**: The prices of related products such as styrene, EPS, and PS changed, and the domestic profits of products such as ABS, EPS, and PS also fluctuated. The price of pure benzene and its spread with naphtha also changed [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PTA - **Market Data**: From May 22 to May 28, 2025, crude oil prices fluctuated, PTA spot prices changed between 4860 - 4910, PTA processing fees ranged from 85.54 - 97.22, and PTA load remained at 77.1. The average daily trading basis of PTA spot was 2509(+185) [1] - **Device Situation**: A 100 - million - ton PTA device restarted [1] MEG - **Market Data**: From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the price of MEG in Northeast Asia remained at 780, the port inventory price fluctuated between 521 - 530, and the profit of MEG inner - disk cash flow (ethylene) changed between - 372 - 540. The negotiation price of MEG spot was around 4524 - 4532, and the basis was around 09(+150) [2] - **Device Situation**: A 100 - million - ton MEG device in Sanjiang reduced its load [2] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Data**: From May 2 to May 28, 2025, the spot price of polyester staple fiber was around 6515, and the market basis was around 07 - 30 [2] - **Device Situation**: Fujian Jinlun had maintenance, and the start - up decreased to 93.2% [2] Natural Rubber - **Market Data**: From May 2 to May 28, 2025, the prices of various types of natural rubber, such as Shanghai full - latex, Thai cup lump rubber, etc., changed. For example, the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 14540 to 13800 [2] Styrene and Derivatives - **Market Data**: From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the prices of styrene, pure benzene, EPS, etc. changed. For example, the price of styrene in China decreased from 7825 to 7650, and the price of pure benzene decreased from 8850 to 8750. The domestic profits of ABS, EPS, and PS also fluctuated [2]

1. Market Performance and Analysis of Various Commodities 1.1 Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract decreased by 0.57% to 20,040 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 270 yuan/ton and an LME price of $2,444.5/ton. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, with a slight increase in operating capacity, while the aluminum product开工率 decreased slightly. The cost of electrolytic aluminum has recovered, and inventory has continued to decline. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a volatile trend, and the recommended operation is to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 1.37% to 3,018 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 245 yuan/ton. Some alumina plants have resumed production, and new production capacity has been released, leading to a slight increase in operating capacity. The situation at the Guinean mine end has eased, and the market's expectation of the resumption of some alumina production capacity has increased, causing the futures price to fall. However, the Guinean mining policy remains highly uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the zinc 2506 contract increased by 0.80% to 22,585 yuan/ton. The social inventory on May 26 was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from May 22. The zinc industry in Guangxi has carried out a ten - year back - checking special action, but currently, there is no actual impact. The import volume of zinc concentrates in April exceeded expectations, and smelters' raw material inventories are high. The supply side is relatively loose, and apparent consumption shows resilience. Overall, the long and short positions are in a stalemate, and the zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [1]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the lead 2506 contract increased by 0.15% to 16,805 yuan/ton. The social inventory on May 26 was 43,400 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons from May 22. The new production capacity of recycled lead is being put into operation and resumed, increasing the demand for waste materials. The production of primary lead is relatively stable, and the supply in the spot market is loose. The demand for lead - acid batteries is weak. The contradiction between raw material supply and consumption has intensified, and the lead price is expected to maintain a small - range volatile trend. It is recommended to operate within the range [1][2]. 1.2 Industrial Silicon The main 07 contract closed at 7,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The supply side has not shown a significant contraction, and there is a high inventory pressure. The demand for polysilicon may decline in May, and the organic silicon industry has limited procurement of upstream products. The weekly output has declined to a new low after the festival, and the downward driving force is limited. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the supply changes after the festival. For speculative purposes, one can wait for the market to rebound and then short the 07 contract or consider shorting the near - month contract and going long on the far - month contract [2]. 1.3 Lithium Carbonate The main 2507 contract closed at 60,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.36% from the previous trading day. In May, the supply was still in an oversupply situation, with a decrease in weekly production and a slower - than - expected growth in demand. Although the sales of new energy vehicles in May have recovered, the growth rate is still gentle. The social inventory is high but shows a slight decline. It is recommended to continue holding short positions or shorting far - month contracts on rallies [2]. 1.4 Polysilicon The main 07 contract closed at 35,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 405 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply side's weekly production has been relatively stable in the past three weeks, and the production in May may decline compared to April. The inventory has decreased, but it is still relatively high. The demand side shows that the price of the component link has stopped falling, while the prices of the silicon wafer and battery cell links are still falling. It is expected that the production in June will decline by 5% - 7%. After the festival, the 06 - 07 contract may trade on the issue of warehouse receipts. After the warehouse receipt game is close to the end, one can consider shorting on the rebound of the 07 contract [2]. 1.5 Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The inventory of building materials in the Gangyin caliber decreased by 2.9% to 4.03 million tons, and the de - stocking margin has significantly slowed down. The supply - demand relationship of steel has weakened marginally but is in line with the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to go long on the 2510 contract of rebar [3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 696.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The shipment of Australian iron ore to China increased, while that from Brazil decreased. Steel mills' profits have marginally narrowed, and future production will be mainly stable. The supply side is in line with seasonal rules, and the medium - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 798 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price. The iron water production has decreased, and steel mills' profits have marginally narrowed. The first round of price cuts has been implemented, and the second round has been proposed. The overall supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 1.6 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price rose slightly. The supply side shows that South America is currently supplying abundantly in the near - term, and the sowing of new - crop US soybeans is progressing smoothly. The demand side is mainly dominated by South America in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand for US soybeans is seasonally weak. The US soybean price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term driver lies in the yield game. The domestic soybean arrival volume will be high later, but the short - term demand for soybean meal is good, driving a rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to future trade policies and US soybean yields [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract of corn fluctuated within a narrow range, and the price of deep - processed corn slightly decreased. The supply - demand relationship has tightened marginally this year. With farmers' grain sales basically completed, the bargaining power of channels has increased. The import volume of substitutes is expected to decrease significantly, which is beneficial to the demand for domestic corn. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the spot price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The futures price has strong support near the minimum purchase price of wheat and is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36%. The market expects an enhanced oversupply pattern in the global sugar market in the 25/26 crushing season, putting pressure on raw sugar prices. In May, the domestic market has entered the pure sales period. With the control of syrup and premixed powder and low inventory, the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, following the trend of raw sugar. Recently, the profit of out - of - quota imports has opened, and domestic sugar mills' point - price operations will put pressure on far - month contracts. It is expected to rebound in the short - term and be bearish in the long - term [5]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fell, and the international oil price weakened. As of May 25, the planting rate of new - crop US cotton was 52%, lower than the same period last year. The production in India in the 24/25 season decreased by 10.4% year - on - year. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton price continued to fluctuate. After the macro - level disturbances decreased, the market focus returned to the fundamentals. It is recommended to adopt a range - trading strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded yesterday. The supply side is in the seasonal production - increasing period, and the estimated production in Malaysia from May 1 - 20 increased by 3.5% month - on - month. The demand side shows that the export has improved month - on - month. Although it is in the seasonal weak stage, there is no major contradiction. It is necessary to pay attention to future production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract of eggs continued to decline, while the spot price rose. The farming is in a loss state, and the culling of old hens is expected to increase temporarily. However, the supply remains high, and with low vegetable prices and unfavorable storage conditions due to high - temperature and high - humidity weather, the supply is stronger than the demand. With cost support, the futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract of pigs fell, while the spot price rose. The supply of pigs continues to increase. With the narrowing of the price difference between standard and fattened pigs and rising temperatures, farmers' willingness to hold and fatten pigs has decreased, and they may gradually reduce the weight of pigs for sale. The utilization rate of pigsties has reached a high level, and the role of secondary fattening in boosting pig prices will gradually weaken. High - temperature weather has led to a seasonal decrease in pork consumption. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased, and the cost is low, so the pig price is expected to decline with fluctuations [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract closed at 7,583 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.13%. Due to the impact of extreme weather such as hot and dry winds and late frosts, the fruit - setting in apple - producing areas, especially in Shaanxi, has become a problem, raising concerns about the new - crop apple yield. With low current inventory and expected yield reduction, the apple price has temporarily remained at a high - level volatile state. The market has high expectations for the price of new - crop Gala apples, which supports the price of late - maturing Fuji apples. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the fruit - bagging verification at the end of May and future apple consumption [6]. 1.7 Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract of LLDPE fluctuated slightly yesterday. The low - price spot in North China was 7,060 yuan/ton, and the 09 basis weakened. New production facilities have been put into operation one after another, and the supply from domestic sources has increased. The import window has closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly. The demand for agricultural films has entered the off - season, and other demands remain stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the actual situation of export - rush after the relaxation of Sino - US tariff negotiations. In the short - term, it is mainly volatile, and in the long - term, as new production facilities are put into operation, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [7][8]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract closed at 4,790 yuan, a decrease of 0.3%. The PVC spot price dropped by about 50 yuan, and the volume of spot - futures point - price transactions increased. The supply side is a combination of maintenance and new - facility commissioning, and the supply growth rate is expected to reach about 5%. The inventory de - stocking has slowed down. It is recommended to gradually exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,850 [8]. - **PTA**: The CFR China price of PX is $840/ton, equivalent to 6,959 yuan/ton in RMB at the current exchange rate. The spot price of PTA in East China is 480 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 178 yuan/ton. The supply of PX has increased to a neutral level, and the import supply remains low. The supply of PTA has increased marginally, and the medium - to - long - term supply pressure is still large. The polyester load has decreased slightly, and the polyester factories have announced production - cut plans. PX and PTA will continue to see inventory reduction. For PX, one can pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback, and for PTA, it is advisable to short the processing margin on rallies [8]. - **Rubber**: The main 2509 contract of natural rubber closed at 14,495 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.87%. The raw material prices have slightly loosened, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly. The continuous large - scale cancellation of 20 - rubber warehouse receipts has led to a significant increase in the NR price, driving up the RU price. The fundamental situation is weak, and the expected increase in supply during the peak season suppresses the price. The RU price lacks upward driving force but has strong support around 14,000 yuan, and it is expected to enter a platform period. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Methanol**: The closing price of the methanol 2509 contract decreased by 0.72% to 2,208 yuan/ton, hitting a new low of 2,181 yuan. The coal price has continued to decline, providing weak cost support for methanol. The supply side has seen multiple large - scale domestic methanol plants restart, increasing the supply pressure. The overseas Iranian plants have all restarted, and the import volume is expected to gradually recover. The demand side shows that the olefin sector has been weak this year, and traditional demand has been lackluster after the May Day holiday. The inventory in coastal areas has increased. It is expected that the supply will be stronger than the demand in the short - term, and the methanol price will be weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended for the 09 contract [8][9]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass closed at 1,028 yuan, an increase of 0.3%. There are rumors that a production line in Hubei may stop production due to excessive petroleum - coke emissions, leading to a small - scale rebound in the market. The supply is rigid, and the daily melting volume is 157,500 tons. The inventory is at a high level, and the downstream deep - processing enterprises' operating rate is lower than in previous years. The glass price is likely to continue to decline. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9]. - **PP**: The main contract of PP fell slightly yesterday. The spot price of PP in East China was 7,030 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable. The short - term maintenance of production facilities is gradually ending, and new facilities are being commissioned, leading to an increase in domestic supply. The export window has opened, and the downstream home - appliance production plan for May is still good, while the automobile production plan is average. In the short - term, the supply and demand will both increase, and the market will be mainly volatile and slightly weak. In the long - term, as new facilities are put into operation, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **MEG**: The spot price of MEG in East China is 4,512 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 148 yuan/ton. The supply is at a moderately low level. Overseas, some plants are scheduled for restart or maintenance. The inventory in East China ports has decreased to around 680,000 tons. The polyester load has decreased slightly, and polyester factories have announced production - cut plans. The short - term supply and demand situation of MEG shows significant inventory reduction, and the price is expected to be strong, but the valuation has reached a high level, so it is advisable to be cautious when going long [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price slightly declined yesterday. The overall supply pressure in the crude oil market is large, and the probability of oversupply is high. There are many potential negative factors for crude oil, such as the return of Iranian supply, recession risks, and the risk of OPEC+ continuing to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day until the end of the year. It is recommended to use crude oil as a short - position allocation [9][10]. - **Styrene**: The main contract fluctuated slightly yesterday. The inventory of pure benzene is at a normal level and is expected to slightly increase in June, while the styrene inventory is at a low level and is also expected to slightly increase in June. The downstream is in a loss state, and the finished - product inventory is being reduced. The home - appliance production plan for May is acceptable. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the relaxation of Sino - US tariff negotiations will lead to an increase in export - rush demand. In the short - term, the market will be mainly volatile, and in the medium - term, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is advisable to short on rallies [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,232 yuan, a decrease of 0.7%. The supply side features a combination