1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral, and BR is also rated neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For RU and NR, with the decrease of rainfall in Thailand, the futures price has dropped. The inventory in Qingdao Port and social inventory in China are increasing, and the increase rate has accelerated recently. The end - of - season in Yunnan is not conducive to the output of RU deliverable products, while Hainan may have an increase in raw materials. Thailand's northern region is in the peak production season, and the inventory of dark rubber in China may continue to increase. The downstream demand has no highlights, and the recovery space of tire factory operating rates is limited. The supply - demand difference may be beneficial to the spread expansion between RU and NR and the reverse arbitrage logic of NR, with prices moving in a range [10] - For BR, the upstream device has some changes, but the short - term supply change is limited. The production profit of private enterprises has improved, and the supply is expected to remain abundant. The downstream demand has no highlights, and the recovery space of tire factory operating rates is limited. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to be weak due to inventory pressure [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,195 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 12,165 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,360 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,720 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports from January to October 2025: The export volume was 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [2] - China's natural rubber imports in October 2025: The import volume was 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - ANRPC September 2025 report forecast: The global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports in the first three quarters of 2025: The total export volume (excluding compound rubber) was 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export volume of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export volume of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export volume of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total export volume to China was 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export volume of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export volume of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export volume of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] - China's passenger car market in October 2025: The retail volume was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, ending two consecutive months of growth. From January to October, the cumulative retail volume was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - EU passenger car market in September 2025: The sales volume increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 26, 2025: RU basis was - 395 yuan/ton (- 20), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 645 yuan/ton (+ 70), NR basis was 826 yuan/ton (+ 15); whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton (+ 0), 3L spot was 15,150 yuan/ton (- 100). STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (+ 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 400 yuan/ton (+ 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,750 yuan/ton (+ 0) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.91 Thai baht/kg (- 0.46), Thai latex was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 52.95 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.85), the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.05 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15) [5] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.04% (- 2.25%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.36% (- 3.63%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 468,877 tons (+ 16,288), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,079,708 tons (+ 17,827), the RU futures inventory was 39,600 tons (- 68,870), and the NR futures inventory was 50,199 tons (+ 504) [6] Cis - 1,4 - Polybutadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and spreads on November 26, 2025: BR basis was - 160 yuan/ton (- 190), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 7,100 yuan/ton (- 100), the quotation of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,250 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 9,880 yuan/ton (- 40), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,403 yuan/ton (unchanged) [7] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 72.64% (+ 2.71%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 5,540 tons (+ 660), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 26,900 tons (+ 270) [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; the supply - demand gap narrows, but the lack of cost - side support limits the upward drive, and it may mainly fluctuate weakly at the bottom [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions have eased, international oil prices have dropped significantly, driving the support at the cost end of propylene to decline. Coupled with the unchanged expectation of loose propylene supply and demand, there is insufficient upward drive in the fundamentals, and the market continues to fluctuate weakly. On the supply side, the PDH units of Binhuahua and Xintai Petrochemical continue to be under maintenance, and the PDH unit of Juzhengyuan in South China is under maintenance, but the downstream supporting PP is also under maintenance, so the impact on supply is limited. On the demand side, the previously shut - down units have restarted intensively, and the overall downstream operation has increased slightly. However, considering that the downstream profit is under pressure due to the rising propylene price, the spread between PP and propylene has narrowed, and downstream users are resistant to high - priced raw materials, so the demand support for propylene has weakened. The international oil price trend is weak, and there is still pressure of oversupply in the medium and long term. The supply of propane from the Middle East to China is tight, and the price of external propane has strengthened slightly recently. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5820 yuan/ton (-18), the spot price of propylene in East China is 6000 yuan/ton (+40), the spot price of propylene in North China is 6075 yuan/ton (+55), the basis of propylene in East China is 180 yuan/ton (+58), and the basis of propylene in North China is 222 yuan/ton (+92) [1] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The operating rate of propylene is 74% (-1%), the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha is 174 US dollars/ton (+2), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 56 US dollars/ton (-2) [1] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 269 yuan/ton (+33) [1] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - The operating rate of PP powder is 47% (+3.02%), and the production profit is - 365 yuan/ton (-15); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 75% (+0%), and the production profit is 647 yuan/ton (+8); the operating rate of n - butanol is 82% (-2%), and the production profit is - 329 yuan/ton (-35); the operating rate of octanol is 77% (+8%), and the production profit is - 46 yuan/ton (+60); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 73% (-2%), and the production profit is 440 yuan/ton (-39); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 80% (+1%), and the production profit is - 464 yuan/ton (-62); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 79% (+12%), and the production profit is - 415 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 45040 tons (-2150) [1]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.59%，报收 64.61 美分/磅，CF601 环比持平，报收 13625 元 | 震荡 | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 11839 手至 54.06 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14475 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日基本持平。国际市场方面，宏观层面是近期市场关注重点，随着 | | | | 美国经济数据、报告陆续恢复发布，美联储 12 月降息 25bp 概率逐渐升温，目前 | | | | 已至八成以上。昨日美元指数震荡走弱，美棉期价重心小幅上移。基本面方面， | | | | USDA11 月报公布后，市场仍缺乏新的锚点，美棉出口周报缺口时间较长，整体 | | | | 驱动因素有限，震荡为主。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉主力合约减仓 1 万余手，仍 | | | | 在当前压力位震荡。我们认为，当前郑棉上下方驱动均相对有限。当 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-11-27 厂内库存去库，现货成交好转 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-11-26，尿素主力收盘1654元/吨（+24）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1630 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1630元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1620元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-24 元/吨（-24）；河南基差：-24元/吨（-34）；江苏基差：-34元/吨（-34）；尿素生产利润100元/吨（+0），出口利润1004 元/吨（-8）。 供应端：截至2025-11-26，企业产能利用率83.91%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为136.39 万吨（-7.33），港口样本 库存量为10.00 万吨（+1.80）。 需求端：截至2025-11-26，复合肥产能利用率34.61%（+4.29%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.20%（+4.72%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.65日（-0.47）。 尿素成交在价格小幅回调后再次转强。复合肥东北开工逐渐提升，山东湖北地区排产增加，开工率提升。三聚氰 胺开工提升，刚需采购。淡储陆续入场。新疆中能已出尿素，随着新增产能释放，中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a cautious and slightly bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR. The 01 contract may have limited upside potential, and long - term attention should be paid to the 05 contract [4]. - For PX, the PXN is supported by polyester start - up, but the high PX load and capacity expansion of some plants limit the rebound space. For TA, short - term supply - demand has improved, and long - term PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve. For PF, the fundamentals are okay, and the processing fee is expected to remain stable. For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle - chips is expected to fluctuate within a range [4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - TA main contract spot basis is - 31 yuan/ton (month - on - month change: +12 yuan/ton), PTA spot processing fee is 201 yuan/ton (month - on - month change: - 11 yuan/ton), and main contract disk processing fee is 265 yuan/ton (month - on - month change: - 12 yuan/ton) [2]. - PXN was 265 dollars/ton (month - on - month change: +1.75 dollars/ton) [1]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit are involved in the analysis [16][19]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit are analyzed [24][25]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - China, South Korea, and Taiwan's PTA loads, as well as China and Asia's PX loads are presented [27][30][31]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory are mentioned [35][38][39]. Downstream Polyester Load - Polyester start - up rate is 91.3% (month - on - month: +0.8%). With the cooling weather and the start of Double Eleven, domestic sales orders have improved significantly since late October. The inventory of polyester factories is low, and the short - term polyester load is expected to remain around 91% [2]. PF Detailed Data - PF spot production profit is 157 yuan/ton (month - on - month: - 7 yuan/ton). Short - fiber load is high, and inventory has been reduced to a low level. Direct - spinning polyester staple fiber fluctuates with raw materials, and it is difficult to increase prices [2]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Bottle - chip spot processing fee is 447 yuan/ton (month - on - month change: +7 yuan/ton). Bottle - chip load remains stable, large factories generally maintain production cuts, and the inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories remains stable [3].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-27 现货升贴水持续走高 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为120.77美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至22400元/吨，SMM上 海锌现货升贴水55元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-10元/吨至22340元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-20元/吨；天 津锌现货价较前一交易日-10元/吨至22340元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-5元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-26沪锌主力合约开于22340元/吨，收于22355元/吨，较前一交易日10元/吨，全天交易日成交96212 手，全天交易日持仓100730手，日内价格最高点达到22425元/吨，最低点达到22280元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-11-26，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.10万吨，较上期变化-0.17万吨。截止2025-11-26，LME 锌库存为49925吨，较上一交易日变化1925吨。 市场分析 国内现货升水持续升高，虽然下游采购较为谨慎，采购积极性不高，现货贴水修复更多因供应环比减少造成。海 外升水长期保持高位，出口窗口持续打开。海内外TC持续下滑， TC价格的快速回落叠加绝 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-11-27 供需两弱格局延续，市场低位震荡 市场分析 1、11月26日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3043元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌17元/吨，跌幅 0.56%；持仓152279手，环比下跌1513手，成交187910手，环比增加27854手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2960—3470元/吨；华南，3050—3210元/吨； 华东，3200—3400元/吨。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 近期原油价格走势偏弱，沥青成本端支撑不足，但在自身绝对价格跌至低位后，市场底部信号已开始出现。现货 方面，昨日山东地区沥青现货价格继续下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。山东地区沥青现货资源供应较为 充裕，施压沥青现货价格下行。从基本面来看，当前供需两弱格局延续，虽然终端需求逐步步入淡季，但在炼厂 开工率和产量出现明显下滑态势，部分炼厂转产渣油，沥青装置开工率降至绝对低位。不过目前冬储需求还没有 明确释放的迹象，市场情绪相对平淡，反弹动力仍不足。整体来看，沥青市场下行压力已有所缓解，但 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Mid - term, the overall oversupply pattern of LPG has not reversed, and the upward driving force of the LPG market is still insufficient. The futures market may maintain a volatile trend in the short - term. For the unilateral strategy, it is neutral, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. There are no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Analysis - On November 26, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4350 - 4500 yuan/ton, Northeast market 4000 - 4150 yuan/ton, North China market 4300 - 4450 yuan/ton, East China market 4170 - 4400 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4420 - 4790 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4350 - 4400 yuan/ton, South China market 4250 - 4380 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of December 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 572 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 559 US dollars/ton, stable. In South China, the CIF price of propane was 564 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 551 US dollars/ton, stable. The RMB - converted prices of propane in East and South China increased by 21 and 22 yuan/ton respectively, while butane decreased by 2 yuan/ton in both regions [1]. - The external market continued to be in a volatile and strong state, and the prices were basically stable yesterday. High discounts increased the CIF cost, which supported the domestic spot and futures markets. Domestic spot prices generally rose steadily. Shandong's civil gas prices increased, while the mainstream transaction prices of civil gas and ether - after carbon four in East China remained stable. The market supply pressure was not large, and market participants were positive. Terminal demand was stable, and downstream users' purchasing sentiment was rational and stable [1]. - Recently, the LPG market showed a marginal tightening trend due to the decline in domestic refinery output and arrival volume, but the sustainability may be limited. Downstream chemical demand was suppressed by rising costs. On the other hand, Middle - East supply may increase after refinery maintenance, and the arrival volume of US goods in Asia is expected to increase in December [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term waiting and seeing [2]. - Cross - period: None [2]. - Cross - variety: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2].

来源：市场资讯 白糖： 消息方面，S&P Global预计巴西中南部地区11月上半月甘蔗压榨量为1885万吨，同比增加14.9%；预计 食糖产量为107.5万吨，同比增加18.9%；预计制糖比为41.94%。现货报价方面，广西新糖报价区间为 5580~5650元/吨，持平；云南制糖集团陈糖报价5350~5400元/吨，新糖报价5310~5500元/吨，部分新糖 下调10元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为5750~5890元/吨，个别上调10元/吨。原糖方面，巴西本榨季趋 于收榨，有机构调低对于26/27榨季巴西产量的预估，北半球方面仍保持增产预期不变。国内目前现货 成交一般，报价暂时持平，随着更多糖厂开榨，未来现货价格预计仍将承压。期货方面1月合约即将移 仓，震荡加剧，静待5月合约空头入场机会。 棉花： 周三，ICE美棉上涨0.59%，报收64.61美分/磅，CF601环比持平，报收13625元/吨，主力合约持仓环比 下降11839手至54.06万手，棉花3128B现货价格指数14475元/吨，较前一日基本持平。国际市场方面， 宏观层面是近期市场关注重点，随着美国经济数据、报告陆续恢复发布，美联储12月降息25b ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Methanol: The current situation remains poor, with Iranian shutdowns slower than expected, high imports in November, difficult resolution of the 01 contract contradiction, difficult inventory reduction, limited upward momentum, and the downward space depending on the inland situation. Recent coal price increases have no impact on profits [1]. - Polyethylene: Overall inventory is neutral, 09 basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, import profit is around -200 with no further increase for now, LD is weakening, domestic linear production has decreased recently, and attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [4]. - PP: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard price differences are neutral, import profit is around -700, export is good.后续供应预计环比略增加, and the 01 contract may face pressure due to over - capacity, which can be relieved by strong exports or more PDH device maintenance [4]. - PVC: The basis remains stable, downstream开工 is seasonally weak, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating, attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, etc. PVC comprehensive profit is -100 [4]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From 2025/11/20 to 2025/11/26,动力煤期货 remained at 801,江苏现货 increased from 2007 to 2088,华南现货 increased from 1990 to 2048, etc. The daily changes on 2025/11/26 were 0 for动力煤期货, 31 for江苏现货, etc [1]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From 2025/11/20 to 2025/11/26,东北亚乙烯 was 730 (except for the last day when it was not provided),华北LL decreased from 6800 to 6700, etc. The daily changes on 2025/11/26 were -40 for华北LL, 0 for华东LL, etc [4]. PP - Price Data: From 2025/11/20 to 2025/11/26,山东丙烯 increased from 5900 to 6050,东北亚丙烯 remained at 695,华东PP decreased from 6300 to 6250, etc. The daily changes on 2025/11/26 were 130 for山东丙烯, -20 for华东PP, etc [4]. PVC - Price Data: From 2025/11/20 to 2025/11/26,西北电石 remained at 2450 (after an increase on 2025/11/24),山东烧碱 remained at 777,电石法 - 华东 decreased from 4470 to 4520, etc. The daily changes on 2025/11/26 were 0 for西北电石, -10 for电石法 - 华东, etc [4]