工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 1 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 点评 12 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8755/吨，日内涨幅 0.75%，持仓 减仓 827 手至 23.89 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9628 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水收至 95 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 49995 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.89%，持 仓减仓 2113 手至 48830 手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳在 55000 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格 55000 元/吨，现货升水扩至 5005 元/吨。 新疆大厂进入检修期，硅厂高位套保和积极向期现商出货。厂家库存逐 步向中间环节转移，隐性库存增加。近期成本端大稳小动，工业硅供需 双减维持震荡态势。反内卷和行业自律消息频发，新疆春节前物流停摆 压力，产区开启节前抢运动作，出现集中性仓单注册，过热投机情绪降 温，多晶硅上方溢价空间受限。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、日度数据监测 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers daily insights and forecasts for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. It analyzes market trends based on factors such as supply - demand dynamics, cost changes, and geopolitical events. For example, due to geopolitical tensions, crude oil prices are affected, which in turn impacts the cost and price trends of related chemical products [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Aromatics and Polyester - related Products - **PX**: Expected to be in a high - level unilateral shock market. Although the supply is gradually becoming more abundant, the cost support from oil prices and the attention from macro funds keep it short - term strong. Suggestions include paying attention to positive spread arbitrage of monthly spreads and hedging by going long on PX and short on PTA [11]. - **PTA**: Unilateral price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Future supply and demand are both weak, but currently, with high processing fees and low inventory, the price remains firm. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA, and go long on SC and short on PTA [12]. - **MEG**: Short - term rebound is expected. Although the demand from polyester is declining, the supply pressure is relieved due to factors such as the impact of the naphtha consumption tax policy on oil - based plants and overseas device shutdowns. It is suggested to close short positions [13]. 3.2 Rubber - related Products - **Rubber**: In a wide - range shock state. The inventory in Qingdao has increased, and the tire enterprise production is different. The overall sales pressure of the tire industry remains [15][16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The upward pressure is gradually increasing. The short - term fundamentals of butadiene are neutral, and the synthetic rubber mainly fluctuates with the cost [20]. 3.3 Plastic - related Products - **LLDPE**: Some production of standard products has been switched back, and the regional spot replenishment continues. The raw material price is stable, but the supply - demand pressure in the medium - term still exists due to high production capacity and weakening demand [21][22]. - **PP**: The cost support is relatively strong as downstream export rush supports propylene. However, the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [24][25]. 3.4 Other Chemical Products - **Caustic Soda**: In a weak shock state. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, with weak demand and large supply pressure. The future delivery pressure of some contracts is also large [29]. - **Pulp**: In a wide - range shock state. The supply - demand structure of the market has not changed significantly, and the downstream demand is only for rigid needs. Attention should be paid to factors such as capital trends in the futures market [35]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The overall market operation is relatively stable, but the demand support is gradually weakening, and the supply - demand situation is not optimistic [38]. - **Methanol**: In a high - level shock state. The spot price is fluctuating slightly, and the port inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the upstream inventory clearance rhythm and freight changes [44]. - **Urea**: Short - term callback is expected, but it is strong in the medium - term. The inventory has a small increase, and the demand is improving, but the short - term downstream resistance is increasing [47][48]. - **Styrene**: In a short - term shock state. The current valuation is high, and there are opportunities to go short at high prices. The medium - term driving force is weak due to factors such as the weakening of overseas blending oil drive [50][51]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The futures price has a small increase, and the overall supply - demand situation is relatively stable [54]. - **LPG**: Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong. The price is affected by factors such as CP paper price changes and device maintenance plans [63]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong. The price is affected by the supply - demand relationship in the market and the operation rate of related devices [58]. - **PVC**: In a weak shock state. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the anti - involution sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to enter the market after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans on the supply side [66]. - **Fuel Oil**: The weak trend continues, but there is still support below. The low - sulfur fuel oil has entered a shock state, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is continuously rebounding [69][70]. 3.5 Shipping - related Products - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the cabin opening guidance, and a light - position short - selling trial can be made for the 04 contract. The market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity changes, demand fluctuations caused by export tax - rebate policies, and geopolitical situations [80][81][82]. 3.6 Fiber - related Products - **Staple Fiber**: It is expected to be in a strong shock state. It is recommended to hold the position of going long on TA and short on PF [88]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is expected to be in a strong shock state. It is recommended to hold the long - short spread position of monthly spreads [89]. 3.7 Paper - related Products - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to short at high prices. The market price is stable, but the downstream demand is limited, and the production and sales situation is not good [91]. 3.8 Benzene - related Products - **Pure Benzene**: It is in a short - term shock state. The port inventory is increasing, and the market price has risen, but the post - price increase trading volume is general [96][97].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 12 日 商品期权日报 张银 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018397 zhangyin2@gtht.com 1. 农产品数据 表 1：期货市场统计 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 主力成交量 | 变化 | 主力持仓量 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | c2603 | 2290 | 27 | 608922 | 98441 | 1092707 | 42864 | | 豆粕 | m2605 | 2790 | 4 | 776412 | -31051 | 2292372 | 31923 | | 菜粕 | rm2605 | 2330 | -8 | 450615 | -11387 | 827782 | 18437 | | 棕榈油 | p2605 | 8724 | 42 | 512074 | 145968 | 417932 | 17379 | | 豆油 | y2605 | 7994 | 0 | 256642 | 52822 | 689448 | 7787 | | 菜油 | o ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多情绪消化，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多情绪消化，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-13 品种晨会纪要 合成胶（BR） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布 ...

021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 日期 2026 年 1 月 13 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：1月12日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2605 | 31 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 13 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：弱势 核心逻辑：昨夜美国农业部 1 月供需报告显示，美国 2025/26 年度大豆产量预估为 42.62 亿蒲式耳，较此 前 12 月报告预估的 42.53 亿蒲式耳上调 8900 万蒲式耳。主要是因为美国农业部小幅上调了美国大豆的种 植面积和收割面积，同时维持单产预估在 53 蒲式耳/英亩。相比报告前市场预估美豆产量和单产下调，美 豆产量不降反升，给美豆期价带来压力。与此同时，美国农业部还下调了美豆出口预估至 15.75 亿蒲式耳， 较 12 月报告预估的 16.35 亿蒲式耳下调 6 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Night trading of protein meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) closed higher. The expected high yield of South American soybeans and high domestic soybean meal inventory will continue to pressure prices, but the suspension and resumption of imported soybean auctions and strong downstream demand have affected the price trend [3]. - Night trading of oils was strong. The December MPOB report on palm oil was in line with market expectations, with production down and exports up, and inventory growth within expectations, having a neutral impact on the market. Soybean oil prices are supported by supply concerns, and it is expected that soybean and palm oils will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a weak oscillation due to the expected easing of China - Canada trade relations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 7994 for soybean oil, 8724 for palm oil, 8980 for rapeseed oil, 2790 for soybean meal, 2770 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were 0, 42, - 62, 4, - 18, and 26 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.00%, 0.48%, - 3.15%, 0.14%, - 0.65%, and 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios have changed compared to the previous values, such as the Y9 - 1 spread changing from - 390 to - 364, and the M9 - 1 spread changing from - 179 to - 238 [2]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 3970 ringgit/ton for BMD palm oil, 1051 cents/bushel for CBOT soybeans, 50.35 cents/pound for CBOT soybean oil, and 298 dollars/ton for CBOT soybean meal. The price changes were - 15, - 12, 1, and - 5 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.38%, - 1.15%, 1.39%, and - 1.78% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals have different percentage changes. For example, the prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.12%, while the prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil decreased by 0.35% [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current basis and spreads of domestic spot products have also changed compared to the previous values, such as the basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil being 526, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remaining at - 150 [2]. Import Profit and Crush Margin - The current import profit and crush margin values of various imported products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the import profit of Malaysian palm oil changed from - 235 to - 232, and the import profit of Canadian rapeseed changed from 581 to 577 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of various products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the warehouse receipts of soybean oil changed from 29,426 to 29,197, and the warehouse receipts of palm oil changed from 560 to 1,248 [2]. Industry Information - Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 10 increased by 17.65% compared to the same period last month, reaching 466,457 tons [3]. - According to MPOB data, Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1,829,761 tons, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month to 1,316,522 tons, and inventory increased by 7.58% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons [3]. - As of the week of January 3, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 98.2%, and the harvesting rate was 0.1%, with a high - yield expectation [3].

2026 年 1 月 13 日 | | 项 目 | | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 货 | 硅 铁:FeSi7 | 5-B:汇总价格:内 | 蒙 | 5350 | +50.0 | 元/吨 | | 现 | 硅 锰:FeMn6 | 5S i1 7:内 蒙 | | 5700 | - | 元/吨 | | | 锰 矿:M n4 4块 | | | 43.0 | - | 元/吨 度 | | | 兰 炭:小 料:神 | 木 | | 760 | - | 元/吨 | | | 期现价差 | 硅 铁 | （现 货-0 3期 货） | -348 | -16 | 元/吨 | | | | 锰 硅 | （现 货-0 3期 货） | -230 | -26 | 元/吨 | | 价 差 | 近远月价差 | 硅 | 铁2603-2605 | 2 4 | 4 | 元/吨 | | | | 锰 | 硅2603-2605 | -12 | 1 0 | 元/吨 | | | 跨品种价差 | 锰 | 硅2603-硅 铁2603 | 232 | -40 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "High-level Volatility" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is in a narrow-range volatile adjustment. The futures are in a high-level consolidation, with general near-term buying at ports and some selling at high prices. Attention is on the shutdown of some coastal MTO plants. Inland upstream enterprises continue the initiative to reduce prices for shipment at the beginning of the week, with significant sales volume in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. However, due to weak downstream demand, the transfer of goods in the trading link is not smooth, and the trading atmosphere is stalemate. [4] - As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of methanol ports in China continued to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly, with de - stocking in Fujian and relatively stable inventory in Guangdong. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of methanol's main contract was 2,263 yuan/ton, down 10 from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,267 yuan/ton, up 22; the trading volume was 1,462,981 lots; the open interest of the 05 - contract was 863,591 lots, up 50,636; the number of warehouse receipts was 7,655 tons, unchanged; the trading value was 3,316,989 ten - thousand yuan, down 170,749. The basis was - 6, up 25; the spread between MA01 and MA05 was - 38, down 5. [2] - **Spot Market**: The price in Inner Mongolia was 1,825 yuan/ton, up 10; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,840 yuan/ton, down 15; the price in Shandong was 2,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 1,996.20, up 5.90. The spot price in Taicang was 2,260, up 18, and the price in northern Inner Mongolia was 1,837.5, up 7.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 8 cities had price increases ranging from 5 to 30 yuan/ton. [4] 3.3 Inventory Situation - As of January 7, 2026, the Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 1.5372 million tons, an increase of 40,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. The inventory mainly accumulated in Zhejiang, with 227,100 tons of visible foreign ships unloading during the period. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly, with de - stocking in Fujian and relatively stable inventory in Guangdong. [4] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). [5]

红枣期货日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 王昌 Z0023598 2026年1月13日 红枣 现值 前值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 红枣2605 (主力合约) 9160 9150 10 0.11% 红枣2607 9200 9195 5 0.05% 红枣2609 9355 9310 45 0.48% 5 红枣5-7价差 -40 -45 11.11% 红枣5-9价差 -195 -160 -35 -21.88% 元/吨 沧州特级现货价格 9490 9520 -30 -0.32% 沧州一级现货价格 8200 8200 0 0.00% 沧州二级现货价格 7000 7000 0 0.00% -270 -230 沧州特级与主力合约基差 -40 82.61% 沧州一级与主力合约基着 240 250 -10 -4.00% 154259 持仓量 154819 -560 -0.36% 主 仓单 2820 2523 297 11.77% 有效预报 472 615 -143 -23.25% 张 仓单+有效预报 3292 3138 4.91% 154 沧州现货基差走势 3000 2000 1000 0 IE -1000 ...