消息面上，日本央行周一发布的报告显示，尽管美国加征关税，但薪资增长势头依然强劲。这表明薪资领域取得进一步进展，而薪资状况正是日本央行本 周加息的关键考量因素。日本央行在报告中称："总部及各分支的大部分报告均提到，企业预计2026财年的薪资涨幅将与2025财年基本一致，而2025财年 实现了较高的薪资增长。"日本央行行长植田和男本月早些时候表示，日本央行将"积极"收集薪资增长数据，以便在周五结束的会议上就加息作出恰当决 策。 另据报道，市场普遍预计周五日本央行行长植田和男将把基准利率上调至三十年来的最高水平。由于政府对廉价融资的需求与日元贬值推高进口价格形成 冲突，未来的政策路径愈发扑朔迷离。 亚太市场全线下跌。 12月16日，亚太市场全线下跌，截至发稿，日经225指数跌1.26%，韩国综合指数跌1.59%，富时新加坡海峡指数跌0.32%，澳洲标普200指数跌0.40%。 谈到劳动力市场，米兰表示："经验表明，劳动力市场恶化可能发生得很快，而且是非线性的，并且难以逆转。部分原因是货币政策存在几个季度的滞后 效应，因此，正如我所主张的，更快地放松政策将适当地使我们更接近中性立场。" 米兰当天对媒体透露，在明年1月 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 11 月经济数据增长继续放缓，股市跟随调整 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-16 宏观策略（黄金） 特朗普认为，现在比以往任何时候都更接近达成协议 金价震荡微涨一度接近前高，日内振幅加大，贵金属其他品种 表现强势，市场关注即将公布的美国 11 月非农就业数据，目前 降息预期已经充分定价。美联储多位官员陆续发表讲话。 宏观策略（股指期货） 11 月经济数据增长继续放缓 综 合 11 月经济数据再度走弱，而股市也跟随调整。基本面交易者成 为阶段性定价主力，高估值、高预期的股市，上行存在压制。 羸弱的经济数据或迫使政策加快出台，关注政策变化。 晨 宏观策略（国债期货） 报 央行开展了 1309 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 11 月经济数据继续走弱，供强需弱的格局仍旧存在，机构行为 主导了债市下跌。做多赔率较高，但胜率不足，建议关注右侧 的做多机会。 农产品（豆粕） 油厂豆粕库存下降 NOPA 压榨数据低于预期，市场对美豆出口担忧情绪不减， CBOT 大豆弱势运行。巴西 12 月出口继续较去年同期增加；新 作播种基本结束，产区天气条件及作物生长情况良好。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧 ...

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 今年 1-11月，A股、港股、美股虽然在年内都一度出现过较大回撤，但最终累计涨幅均表现不俗 。其中，上证指数涨幅超16%，深证成指涨幅 超24%，创业板指涨幅超42%。港股的恒生指数、恒生科技涨幅分别超28%、25%；美股的道琼斯指数涨超12%，纳斯达克指数涨近21%。 | 证券市场 | 指数名称 | 今年1-11月 | 今年1-11月 | 今年1-11月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 涨跌幅 | 最大涨幅 | 最大回撤 | | A股 | 上证指数 | 16.02% | 30.13% | -9.71% | | | 深证成指 | 24.67% | 46.57% | -14.98% | | | 创业板指 | 42.54% | 83.95% | -20.79% | | | 沪深300 | 15.04% | 32.27% | -10.49% | | | 中证500 | 22.81% | 42.78% | -13.80% | | | 中证1000 | 23.10% | 39.15% | -16.87% | ...

本次论坛由全球领先的港美股资讯平台智通财经、香港中资证券业协会和新智基金网联合主办，并由香 港中国金融协会、中国首席经济学家论坛、香港河北金融专业委员会等权威金融机构战略合作支持。 智通财经APP获悉，12月5日，由智通财经、香港中资证券业协会联合主办的第七届"2025金中环论坛暨 金融机构榜颁奖典礼"在香港中环圆满落幕。典礼现场重磅揭晓第七届"金中环"金融机构榜单，招银国际 APP凭借数智化创新服务和突破性实践成果，荣膺"年度最佳数智化创新APP"奖项。体现了行业内对招银 国际数智化创新的高度认可。 历经七届沉淀，"金中环"评选已成为金融业创新成果的权威标尺，其评选基于机构业务规模、项目质 量、市场影响力等多维评审体系，获奖机构代表行业顶尖水准，公信力备受业界认可。招银国际App荣 膺"年度最佳数智化创新APP"，既是对其智能化内核重塑用户体验的高度肯定，更是对招银国际以金融 科技推动行业数智化转型的权威认证。 招银国际系招商银行(03968)旗下全资子公司，招银国际APP焕新升级版本以"专业能力成就全球机遇"为 核心品牌指引，以智能化重塑服务场景，通过打造智能资讯、智能交易、智能投研、智能陪伴、尊享 版" ...

格隆汇12月15日｜睿盛银行预期，美联储明年会继续温和减息，在关税问题抑制经济增长下，虽然有低 利率和AI投资抵销相关影响，但预期2026年美国经济增长或略较2025年放缓。另一方面，美联储新主 席是否有亲特朗普的候选人担任，仍有待观察，现时预计美国明年会降息3次。 该行维持对股票长期升势的看法，指企业盈利和美国低利率环境会继续支撑股票市场。明年前景看来更 具挑战性，主要因为估值已变得很高及全球经济前景疲弱。企业能否继续以令人信服的盈利增速满足市 场的高预期，将成为关键因素。有机会令市况波动性变得更大。 该行提到，在在不稳定时期，美元仍是热门避险资产。如果美元出现意外的突然升值，部分沽美元进的 合约更有机会需要平仓，将会产生反效果，即推高美元。 ...

有色金属：行情延续，宏观情绪仍是主导 20251214 摘要 尽管基本面未变，商品价格受宏观情绪影响显著，美联储宽松政策是关 键驱动力。即使未来降息路径存在不确定性，流动性充裕的环境仍将支 撑商品价格上涨，类似于 2019-2021 年的市场表现。 AI 投资和日本加息引发市场担忧，但流动性宽松降低了去杠杆风险，短 期内泡沫破灭可能性较低。日本若超预期加息可能带来回调压力，但在 供不应求和需求复苏背景下，回调或是配置良机，预计 2026 年多数金 属将供不应求。 黄金因地缘政治、美元信用体系走弱及央行增持等因素不宜做空。降息 周期中，黄金通常经历两轮上涨，RMP 实施后预计将震荡走高。白银虽 短期面临回调压力，但长期来看，供需短缺和工业属性使其上行周期未 结束。 预计 2026 年金价有望冲击 4,800 美元，受益于流动性宽松和通胀上升。 贵金属企业如灵宝黄金，通过收购新矿实现量增，估值有望提升至 15- 20 倍。 铜市场供需双弱、库存低位，高铜价抑制需求。短期宏观趋势预期可能 带来负面影响，但流动性宽松将消除影响，回调是配置机会。预计 2026 年上半年铜市场仍偏短缺，对应 1.1-1.2 万美元铜价， ...

有色金属：行情延续，宏观情绪仍是主导 20251214 摘要 尽管基本面未变，商品价格受宏观情绪影响显著，美联储宽松政策是关 键驱动力。即使未来降息路径存在不确定性，流动性充裕的环境仍将支 撑商品价格上涨，类似于 2019-2021 年的市场表现。 AI 投资和日本加息引发市场担忧，但流动性宽松降低了去杠杆风险，短 期内泡沫破灭可能性较低。日本若超预期加息可能带来回调压力，但在 供不应求和需求复苏背景下，回调或是配置良机，预计 2026 年多数金 属将供不应求。 黄金因地缘政治、美元信用体系走弱及央行增持等因素不宜做空。降息 周期中，黄金通常经历两轮上涨，RMP 实施后预计将震荡走高。白银虽 短期面临回调压力，但长期来看，供需短缺和工业属性使其上行周期未 结束。 预计 2026 年金价有望冲击 4,800 美元，受益于流动性宽松和通胀上升。 贵金属企业如灵宝黄金，通过收购新矿实现量增，估值有望提升至 15- 20 倍。 铜市场供需双弱、库存低位，高铜价抑制需求。短期宏观趋势预期可能 带来负面影响，但流动性宽松将消除影响，回调是配置机会。预计 2026 年上半年铜市场仍偏短缺，对应 1.1-1.2 万美元铜价， ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Industry**: The records discuss the metals industry, particularly focusing on precious metals, industrial metals, and energy metals, with insights into market trends and forecasts for 2026 [1][2][6][12][26]. Precious Metals - **Silver Price Volatility**: Silver prices have experienced significant fluctuations due to decreasing inventories and demand expectations, with a short-term pullback influenced by AI trends, but long-term trends are expected to follow gold prices [1][3]. - **Federal Reserve's Impact**: The recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the initiation of short-term U.S. debt purchases have enhanced liquidity expectations, driving precious metal prices upward, with silver reaching nearly $64 per ounce [2][5]. - **Long-term Support Factors**: Factors such as the Federal Reserve's asset purchases, interest rate cuts, and the U.S. strategic shift away from the dollar are expected to provide long-term support for precious metal prices [1][4][5]. Industrial Metals - **Optimistic Outlook**: The industrial metals market outlook is optimistic, with expectations of demand rebound in traditional manufacturing and real estate due to easing high-interest rates and supportive policies from China's 14th Five-Year Plan [1][6]. - **Copper Price Trends**: Copper prices reached new highs following the Fed's rate cut but faced adjustments due to concerns over AI and U.S. economic data. Future price trends will depend on economic resilience indicators [7][8]. - **Aluminum Market Dynamics**: The aluminum market is expected to remain strong due to fiscal and monetary easing, despite seasonal demand pressures. The overall demand is anticipated to be supported by storage and export activities [10][11]. Energy Metals - **Lithium Demand**: Lithium demand remains robust, driven by the economics of energy storage, with high order expectations for 2026. Supply-side disruptions continue, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance [12][15]. - **Cobalt Market Stability**: Cobalt prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with supply concerns easing due to improved political conditions in the Democratic Republic of Congo [12][13]. Steel Industry - **Policy Changes**: The steel industry has reinstated the steel export license system to optimize export structures and limit low-value product exports, which is expected to impact the market significantly [23][24]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Despite short-term market reactions to new policies, there are long-term investment opportunities in high-end manufacturing steel companies, which are less affected by these changes [24][25]. Conclusion - **Investment Strategy**: The overall analysis indicates various investment opportunities across precious metals, industrial metals, and energy metals, emphasizing the need to monitor policy changes and market dynamics closely to adjust investment strategies accordingly [26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and investment in artificial intelligence (AI) by the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, highlighting the potential for an AI bubble and the strategic competition among these companies as they invest heavily in AI infrastructure and applications [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Trends - The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, including Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla, are significantly increasing their capital expenditures (CapEx) to build AI infrastructure, focusing on data centers, chip procurement, and AI training facilities [2][3]. - Microsoft’s CapEx for fiscal years 2023, 2024, and 2025 is approximately $29 billion, $32 billion, and $64.6 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10%, 39%, and 45% [3]. - Amazon's CapEx is projected to grow explosively from $83 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of over 50%, and is expected to reach $125 billion in 2025 [3][4]. - Alphabet's CapEx was around $52.5 billion last year, with a year-on-year increase of over 60%, and is guided to be between $91 billion and $93 billion for 2025 [4]. - Meta is shifting its focus from the metaverse to AI, with a projected CapEx of approximately $37.3 billion in 2024, increasing to between $70 billion and $72 billion in 2025 [4][5]. - Nvidia's CapEx for fiscal year 2025 is about $3.2 billion, reflecting a 202% increase year-on-year, with projections for fiscal year 2026 between $4 billion and $6 billion [5]. Group 2: Market Performance and Competition - The "Wind US Tech Seven Index" has shown an upward trend in 2025, with an overall increase of 18.33%, outperforming the S&P 500 index [6]. - Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple have reached historical market capitalization records, with Nvidia becoming the first company to surpass $5 trillion [6]. - The competition among tech giants is shifting from individual technical capabilities to systemic competition around ecosystems, platforms, and long-term control [6][7]. - Nvidia is benefiting from low investment and high returns as an AI infrastructure supplier, while Microsoft focuses on enterprise AI productivity tools [7][8]. - Amazon's AWS reported a revenue of $3.3 billion in Q3, marking a 20% year-on-year increase, and is leveraging its Bedrock platform to assist businesses in building AI [8]. Group 3: Strategic Relationships and Future Outlook - The relationship between OpenAI and the Magnificent Seven is evolving, with Microsoft reducing its dependency on OpenAI while also being its largest investor [9]. - OpenAI plans to collaborate with Broadcom to develop its own AI chips, reducing reliance on Nvidia, while other giants like Google and Meta view OpenAI as a direct competitor [9]. - The ongoing competition and collaboration among these tech giants highlight the importance of controlling core technologies and user data, as well as the struggle for future dominance [9].

Group 1 - The macro effects brought by AI investment will be more important than AI itself, as evidenced by the significant drop in AI tech stocks like Oracle and Broadcom, which reflects market concerns about future performance despite increased capital expenditure guidance [2][12][13] - The recent drop in AI stocks does not affect the upward adjustment of AI investment guidance, indicating a divergence between AI stock performance and the broader macroeconomic benefits of AI investment [2][12][33] Group 2 - The recent interest rate cuts and the Federal Reserve's announcement to purchase short-term government bonds are expected to strengthen the trend of investment exceeding consumption in the real economy [3][15][17] - The rising unemployment rate and declining average hourly wages in the U.S. are likely to catalyze further interest rate cuts, with a potential path from AI investment to monetary policy and then to real economic demand recovery [3][17] Group 3 - The Central Economic Work Conference in China has set the tone for expanding domestic demand and addressing "involution," clarifying the path out of deflation [4][20][22] - The focus on expanding domestic demand has shifted from government-led initiatives to endogenous drivers, emphasizing income growth for a broader population and activating private capital [4][22][23] - The conference's emphasis on "anti-involution" in the manufacturing sector is crucial for corporate profit recovery, which historically leads to improvements in employment and wages [4][23][26] Group 4 - Despite market volatility related to AI stock performance and interest rate expectations, the actual impacts on the fundamentals should be the focus, as AI investment continues to be adjusted upwards and will stimulate manufacturing demand [5][33] - Recommendations include focusing on industrial resource chains benefiting from AI investment and the recovery of global manufacturing, as well as opportunities in China's equipment exports and consumer sectors [5][33]