1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - Although there are strong differences within the Federal Reserve, and the threshold for a 12 - month interest rate cut is significantly raised, the three interest rate cuts implied by the September dot - plot within the year are still the benchmark scenario, and there is still a high possibility of an interest rate cut in December [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs How to understand "12 - month interest rate cut is far from a certainty"? - **Internal division in the Fed**: After recent interest rate cuts, the policy rate has entered the estimated neutral interest rate range (2.6% - 3.9%). There is a growing call within the Fed to "wait at least one cycle" to observe the effects of previous policies. There are significant differences among Fed officials in economic forecasts and risk aversion, resulting in strong division. There were two - way dissenting votes at this meeting, and 9 officials in the September dot - plot had relatively high thresholds for further collective compromise in December [2] - **Uncertainty of data suspension**: Due to government data suspension, the Fed's information acquisition is affected, and high data uncertainty is a reason for cautious and postponed actions [2] - **Stable high - frequency employment data**: High - frequency employment data is stable, showing a "very gradual cooling," providing some "comfort" for policymakers. However, the meeting statement indicates that the risk of employment decline has increased in recent months [2] - **Optimistic attitude towards inflation**: Tariffs are the main driver of current commodity inflation, with a mild impact. Excluding tariffs, core PCE inflation is expected to be between 2.3% - 2.4%, close to the 2% target. Housing inflation has continued to decline, and economic and employment market slowdowns help service inflation decline [2] What details are worth noting about the Fed's halt to balance - sheet reduction? - **Stopping balance - sheet reduction**: When the bank reserve scale is slightly higher than the "sufficient reserve" level, balance - sheet reduction should stop. Recent money - market signals indicate that the reserve level has reached this standard [2] - **Reshaping the portfolio structure**: After the balance - sheet reduction officially ends on December 1, the principal of the Fed's matured Treasury bonds will be rolled over through auctions, and the principal of MBS will be reinvested in short - term Treasury bonds in the secondary market, adjusting the balance - sheet structure to be mainly Treasury bonds [2] - **Future balance - sheet expansion**: After freezing the scale, non - reserve liabilities will cause the reserve balance to decline. In the future, the reserve balance needs to gradually increase again, and the balance - sheet structure will be adjusted to "closer to the duration distribution of the Treasury market" [6] How does the Fed view other current economic hotspots? - **Discrepancy between strong consumption and weak employment**: Strong consumption expenditure is the main support for moderate economic expansion, but the labor market has cooled significantly. This is mainly due to the K - shaped consumption structure. High - income groups increase spending, while low - income groups struggle. The Fed Chair's attitude towards whether the stock - market rise drives the K - shaped consumption structure is relatively neutral [6] - **AI boom**: AI investment is an important driving force for economic growth, but consumption expenditure is the core support. The overall economy has resilience even if AI investment contracts. Attention should be paid to the risk of AI - related layoffs, but it is not currently reflected in employment data. AI investment is insensitive to interest rates, and the current situation is different from the 1990s dot - com bubble [6] - **Rising sub - prime credit default rate**: The rising sub - prime credit default rate has not yet evolved into a widespread credit risk, but the Fed will continue to closely monitor it to ensure the risk does not expand [6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% as expected[2] - The Fed announced it will end quantitative tightening on December 1, 2025[2] - Powell's hawkish comments indicated that a further rate cut in December is not guaranteed, highlighting internal disagreements within the Fed[2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Economic fundamentals remain largely unchanged since September, with a balanced labor market and inflation slightly above the 2% target[2] - Strong AI investments and resilient consumer spending support steady economic growth, distinguishing the current AI boom from the internet bubble[2] - The market is pricing in a 67.8% probability that there will be no rate cut in December[4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, U.S. Treasury yields rose, while stock markets and gold prices declined[2] - The expectation for a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts throughout 2025 remains, with a 25 basis point cut in December still considered the baseline scenario[2]

Group 1: Overseas Quantitative Dynamics - The trend of integration between high-frequency trading and quantitative alpha management is emerging in the U.S. private equity market, particularly after a market pullback in 2025 due to a rebound in "junk stocks" [1][2] - High-frequency trading has evolved significantly over the past 20 years, with firms like Citadel and Jane Street facing intense competition, leading them to adopt short-cycle alpha prediction strategies to mitigate pure speed competition [1][2] - Traditional quantitative alpha strategies, which began in the 1980s, have longer holding periods and larger average exposure compared to high-frequency trading, which is now increasingly overlapping with traditional strategies [2][3] Group 2: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, large quantitative managers like Citadel underperformed smaller managers such as Balyasny and ExodusPoint, with Citadel achieving only 2.5% returns compared to over 7% for smaller firms, primarily due to increased strategy drawdowns from frequent tariff changes [4] - Citadel and Point72's performance improved due to their focus on fundamental, concentrated portfolios, which outperformed their flagship strategies this year [4] Group 3: Regulatory Issues - Jane Street faced regulatory scrutiny in India, with accusations of manipulating market prices on options expiration dates, leading to a suspension of trading privileges and potential penalties [5] Group 4: Overseas Quantitative Perspectives - Machine learning is gaining traction in macro investment, with firms like BlackRock exploring its application to enhance traditional models and extract investment signals from complex macro data [7][10] - AQR's research highlights biases in subjective versus objective stock return predictions, noting that subjective forecasts tend to be overly optimistic, especially following bull markets [15][16] - Invesco's global quantitative survey indicates a rising trend in the use of quantitative methods across multi-asset portfolio management, with a notable increase in the flexibility of factor adjustments [19][22][23] Group 5: Performance Tracking of Quantitative Products - Factor rotation products, such as those from BlackRock and Invesco, have shown varying performance, with BlackRock's products outperforming benchmarks in recent months [28][30] - Machine learning-based stock selection strategies have demonstrated better performance compared to traditional methods, with products like QRFT outperforming AIEQ [43] - The Bridgewater All Weather ETF has shown resilience, recovering quickly from market pullbacks and achieving over 15% cumulative returns since its inception [44][46]

宏观 10 月 FOMC：鲍威尔意外表示 12 月 降息仍有变数 证券研究报告 联储 10 月会议如期降息 25bp，并宣布 12 月 1 日开始结束缩表，但鲍威尔 称 12 月降息仍可能有变数（far from foregone decision），表态偏鹰派。 联储 10 月会议如期降息 25bp，基准利率降至 3.75%-4%，Miran 要求降息 50bp，而堪萨斯联储主席施密德要求不降息；同时，联储宣布从 12 月 1 日 起停止缩表。会前市场普遍定价联储 12 月会议再降息 25bp，但鲍威尔在记 者会中表示，12 月降息仍可能有变数（far from foregone decision），需观 察后续数据再做决定。鲍威尔表态偏鹰派导致市场降息预期回落，美元有所 回升。截至北京时间凌晨 4:30，相较会议前，对 2025 年 12 月、2026 年降 息预期分别收窄 4bp、1bp 至 17bp、69bp；2y、10y 美债收益率分别上行 8bp、6bp 至 3.59%、4.07%；美元指数上涨 0.4%至 99.2；标普 500、道指 分别下跌 0.2%、0.4%，纳指基本持平，黄金下跌 1.1 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October meeting[6] - The Fed announced the cessation of quantitative tightening (QT) starting December 1, 2025[2] - The voting outcome was 10-2, indicating significant internal division regarding future rate cuts[6] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed's economic assessment shifted from "moderated in the first half of the year" to "expanding at a moderate pace"[6] - Employment growth is slowing, but there are no signs of accelerated job market weakness[2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to become more evident in the first quarter of next year[2] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a high probability of pausing rate cuts in December due to ongoing government shutdown issues and delayed economic data[2] - The likelihood of resuming rate cuts may increase after the May 2026 Fed chair transition, especially if a dovish candidate is appointed[2] - The Fed's internal divisions and cautious approach to data-driven decisions add uncertainty to future monetary policy[2]

—10 月美联储议息会议点评 频率：每月 事件：当地时间 2025 年 10 月 29 日，美联储召开议息会议，降息 25BP 至联邦 基金目标利率区间 3.75%-4.00%，12 月 1 日起结束缩表。 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 10 月 30 日 鲍威尔为 12 月降息泼冷水 本次鲍威尔定调偏鹰，给市场过度定价 12 月降息浇冷水，他强调"远非（Far from it）板上钉钉"。此外，美联储内部对 12 月是否降息亦存强烈分歧，美 国政府结束关门后的通胀与就业数据成为 12 月议息会议能否顺利降息的关 键。结束缩表短期是缓解流动性压力，意味着美联储从控总量转向调结构，有 助于缓解近期回购市场波动，美债收益率曲线向正常化方向移动，但此前市场 已有充分预期，亦非更为宽松之举。 资产方面，短期风险资产波动加大，中期仍然看多美股。本次答记者问中鲍威 尔提及美股与 AI 投资时的态度似乎更乐观，在对比 90 年代末的互联网泡沫时 他提到当下估值高的科技企业有盈利支撑，这是与 90 年代最大的不同，AI 投 资也确实是今年美国经济增长的重要来源。考虑到目前标普 500CAPE 已高达 41.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points and announced the end of balance sheet reduction starting December 1. There is significant disagreement among committee members regarding future rate cuts, indicating that further cuts are not guaranteed [1][4][12]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The prospect of another rate cut in December is uncertain, with some members suggesting a pause in rate changes [3][13]. - The composition of the balance sheet remains a long-term process, with adjustments expected to be gradual [3]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, but there is no significant increase in job market weakness, with job vacancies remaining stable [3][7]. Inflation Insights - Inflation pressures are still present, with the September CPI showing a more moderate increase than expected. Core PCE inflation, excluding tariffs, is estimated to be around 2.3% to 2.4% [3][9][27]. - Tariffs are contributing to rising prices in certain goods, leading to overall inflation increases [9][10]. - The overall PCE price index increased by 2.8% over the past 12 months, with core PCE also rising by 2.8% [9][27]. Economic Activity - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with GDP growth for the first half of the year at 1.6%, down from 2.4% the previous year [5][46]. - Consumer spending has shown strength, which may lead to better-than-expected economic growth [6][44]. - Investment in equipment and intangible assets continues to grow, while housing market activity remains weak [7]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is experiencing a gradual cooling, with a notable decline in labor supply impacting employment [7][8]. - The unemployment rate remains relatively low, but job growth has slowed significantly since the beginning of the year [7][36]. - There are concerns about rising risks to employment, particularly in light of recent layoffs announced by major companies [8][32]. Balance Sheet Management - The Federal Reserve will stop balance sheet reduction as it has reached a level deemed sufficient for "ample reserves" [14][18]. - The balance sheet has shrunk by approximately $2.2 trillion over the past three and a half years, with its size relative to nominal GDP decreasing from 35% to about 21% [14][19]. - The Fed plans to reinvest proceeds from maturing agency securities into short-term Treasury bills to adjust the balance sheet structure [15][24]. Market Reactions and Future Considerations - The market has priced in expectations for further rate cuts, but the Fed emphasizes that such actions are not predetermined [15][22]. - The committee's discussions reflect a range of opinions on the economic outlook, with some members advocating for a pause to assess the situation further [16][35]. - The potential impact of government shutdowns on economic data and decision-making processes is acknowledged, with a cautious approach suggested in the absence of reliable data [21][31].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the upcoming "China Venture Capital & Private Equity Annual Forum" scheduled for December 2-5, 2025, in Shenzhen, emphasizing its role in showcasing industry trends and fostering discussions among key stakeholders in the investment community [2][24]. Group 1: Event Overview - The forum will feature a variety of activities including keynote speeches, roundtable discussions, and networking opportunities aimed at exploring future investment trends and challenges [12][15]. - A special report titled "2025 China Private Equity Development Report" will be released during the event, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the industry [14][17]. Group 2: Recruitment and Participation - The event is actively recruiting participants for various roles, including industry thought leaders, exhibitors showcasing innovative technologies, and athletes for sports events like half marathons and badminton matches [5][8][10]. - There is a call for "创·投 Talk" participants, seeking individuals with expertise in frontier technologies and investment trends to share their insights [7][22]. Group 3: Agenda Highlights - The agenda includes significant sessions such as "The Mission of Angel Investors" and discussions on topics like "CVC and the Rise of Industrial Empowerment" and "Investment in Hard Technology" [15][17][19]. - Notable discussions will focus on the future of AI investments and the commercialization of next-generation AI technologies [19][21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to less than 35% from the current price [6][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 664 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 33%, and a net profit of RMB 118.8 billion, up 56% year-over-year [6][8]. - The company holds the global leading market share in energy storage systems and photovoltaic inverters, benefiting from strong global demand for energy storage [6][8]. - The company is expected to see significant profit growth in the coming years, with projected net profits of RMB 156 billion, RMB 197.7 billion, and RMB 231.5 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][10]. Company Overview - The company operates in the electrical equipment industry, with a current A-share price of RMB 165.88 and a target price of RMB 220 [2][6]. - Major shareholder is Cao Renxian, holding 30.46% of shares [2]. - The company has a total market capitalization of RMB 263.7 billion [2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 34.9% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 3.56 percentage points year-over-year [6]. - The revenue from energy storage systems reached RMB 288 billion, a year-over-year increase of 105%, with a shipment volume of 29 GWh, up 70% year-over-year [6][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be RMB 7.53, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22, 17, and 15 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][10]. Market Outlook - The global energy storage market is expected to grow at a rate of approximately 50% annually, driven by the economic viability of energy storage systems and increasing electricity demand from AI developments [8]. - The company is enhancing its research and development efforts in energy storage, with the recent launch of the PowerTitan 3.0 smart storage platform [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges of maintaining stability in investment amidst market volatility and emotional pressures, emphasizing that achieving "stability" is a complex and ongoing process rather than a one-time achievement [3][19]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations within the 3800-3900 point range, causing stress for investors as they navigate daily ups and downs [3]. - The article highlights the emotional turmoil investors face, with the need for stability becoming increasingly difficult in a volatile market environment [3][19]. Group 2: Investor Experiences - One investor shares their struggle with maintaining a steady investment approach while feeling pressured by peers who achieve higher returns through riskier investments, such as AI stocks [4][5]. - Another investor reflects on the overwhelming amount of information available, leading to excessive trading and ultimately lower returns compared to a more passive investment strategy [9]. - A different perspective reveals that what was perceived as stability in investment was actually a form of laziness, as the investor failed to adapt to changing market conditions and industry dynamics [11][13]. Group 3: Emotional and Psychological Factors - The article emphasizes that the desire to outperform others can lead to poor investment decisions and emotional distress, highlighting the importance of focusing on personal investment goals rather than comparisons with others [15][17]. - It suggests that true stability requires continuous learning and adaptation, rather than a static approach to investing [14][19]. Group 4: Conclusion and Future Insights - The article concludes by inviting readers to explore the concept of stability in investment further, with insights from a fund manager who emphasizes the importance of a disciplined approach and understanding human behavior in achieving stability [19][20].