投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 需求支撑不足，焦煤低位运行 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 终端担忧仍存，焦炭低位震荡 | 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1010.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 0.5%，折合期 货仓单成本约 983 元/吨。4 月全国原煤产量 3.89 亿吨，同比增 3.8%，增幅收窄，但国内煤炭供应 仍维持较高水平。高频数据方面，最新一期全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量为 81.7 万吨，连续 第八周录得正增长；5 月 5 日~10 日，中蒙甘其毛都口岸通关车数达到 6709 车，为年内最高单周通 车量。可见，焦煤供应维持高 ...

| | | | 11/11/2 | ■投期货 | 敏商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月21日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【棉花&棉纱】 今天郑棉冲奇回落，盘中09价格最高涨至13560:国产格现货交投一般,主流基盖坚挺:纯棉纱近日交抵尚可,但没幸之下市场 作心不足。国内棉花进口延续偏低的情况，2025年4月选口6万吨，同比降28万吨，环比降1.4万吨;2025年1-4月累计进口40万 吨，同比降71%; 2024/25年度9~4月累计进口86.6 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, on the macro - level, the national economy maintained stable growth in April. Fundamentally, soda ash device fluctuated slightly, with supply decreasing narrowly due to planned maintenance in Qinghai and expected maintenance in the middle and late period. Downstream demand was tepid, with more wait - and - see sentiment, mainly replenishing inventory at low prices. High inventory pressure persisted, suppressing price increases. It is recommended to short on rallies for soda ash [2]. - For glass, on the supply side, the overall profit of glass made from natural gas, coal, and oil decreased slightly due to falling spot prices while production remained stable. On the demand side, there was a lack of positive news, and demand remained weak. Some original sheet enterprises might operate flexibly and offer discounts to avoid high - inventory pressure. The futures price was close to the production cost, and cost support might work in the short - term. It is recommended to buy on dips for glass [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1,288 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,034 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The price difference between soda ash and glass was 254 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - The position volume of the soda ash main contract was 1,465,721 hands, down 32,407 hands; the position volume of the glass main contract was 1,484,264 hands, up 1,681 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 soda ash traders was - 270,580, up 10,693; the net position of the top 20 glass traders was - 164,811, up 6,861 [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash were 2,317 tons, down 453 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of glass were 3,568 tons, down 10 tons [2]. - The price difference between the September and January soda ash contracts was 9 yuan, up 3 yuan; the price difference between the September and January glass contracts was - 54 yuan, up 2 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash was 1,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China heavy soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of East China light soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China light soda ash was 1,335 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shahe glass sheets was 1,076 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China glass sheets was 1,130 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of soda ash was 40 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the basis of glass was 51 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants was 80.27%, down 7.47 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 75%, down 0.24 percentage points [2]. - The in - production capacity of glass was 15.63 million tons/year, up 0.11 million tons; the number of in - production glass production lines was 222, unchanged [2]. - The inventory of soda ash enterprises was 168.75 tons, down 2.45 tons; the inventory of glass enterprises was 68,082,000 weight boxes, up 522,000 weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of the newly started area of real estate was 12,996.46 million square meters, up 6,382.46 million square meters; the cumulative value of the completed area of real estate was 13,060.27 million square meters, up 4,296.27 million square meters [2]. - From January to April, the state - owned land use right transfer income was 934 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.4% [2]. Industry News - Guangdong encourages local governments to support farmers in buying houses in cities by issuing housing subsidies, housing vouchers, etc [2]. - Shantou plans to supply 161.4 hectares of housing land and renovate 58 old communities in 2025 [2]. - Shanghai's housing and urban - rural construction and management commission investigated the housing provident fund situation of some enterprises [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The ethylene glycol market is currently in a weak state. In the short - term, it will maintain a slow - moving trend, mainly focusing on destocking, but the destocking efficiency is relatively low. The prices of polyester products such as polyester staple fiber, polyester chips, and polyester filaments are following the downward trend, and the production and sales of polyester are still sluggish. The reduction in production of polyester and the delay in equipment maintenance are affecting the demand for ethylene glycol [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Information - Crude oil price: On May 20, 2025, the price of crude oil was $569.63 per ton, with a daily increase of 0.04% [1]. - Ethylene price index: On May 20, 2025, the price was $781.00 per ton, with no change [1]. - Ethylene glycol price: In the East China region on May 21, 2025, the ex - factory price of ethylene glycol was $600.00 per ton, with a 5550.00% increase compared to the previous value; on May 20, 2025, the price was $4570.00 per ton, with no change [1]. - Polyester price index: On May 20, 2025, the polyester price index was $8900.00 per ton, with no change; the polyester staple fiber price index was $6620.00 per ton, with a 0.68% increase [1]. 3.2 Operating Rate and Load Rate - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol was 54.94% on May 20, 2025, with no change; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 48.18% on May 20, 2025, with no change [1]. - The load rate of the PTA industry factory was 91.11% on May 20, 2025, with a 0.01% decrease; the load rate of the weaving machine industry in Zhejiang and Jiangsu PTA was 68.10% on May 20, 2025, with no change [1]. 3.3 Market Trends and Trading - The ethylene glycol market is weak. The night - session and intraday trading show that the contract is at a premium, and the price is around $100 - $105 per ton. The external market of ethylene glycol is also weak, with the price of recent ship cargoes falling to around $0.98 per ton [2]. - The trading volume of ethylene glycol is affected by the reduction in production of polyester and the delay in equipment maintenance. The enthusiasm of market participants has decreased, and the market has entered a cooling - off period [2]. 3.4 Impact on Related Products - The prices of polyester products such as polyester staple fiber, polyester chips, and polyester filaments are following the downward trend, with price decreases of 0.68%, 1.64%, and 0.68% respectively on May 20, 2025 [1][2]. - The production and sales of polyester are still sluggish, and the sentiment in the polyester industry has not fully recovered [2].

2025 年 05 月 21 日 铝：震荡偏强 氧化铝：区间整理 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtjt.com 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 【综合快讯】 1. 阿拉丁（ALD）调研了解，山西某中型氧化铝厂原计划 5 月 15 日开始一台焙烧炉年检，因其他原因 推迟至 5 月 22 日检修，检修周期约 15 天，日影响产量约 2700 吨。 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期 货 研 究 国 泰 君 期货研究 【趋势强度】 铝趋势强度：0；氧化铝趋势强度：0。 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 期货研究 国泰君安期货有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）具有中国证监会核准的期货投资咨询业务 资格（证监许可 [2011]1449 号）。 本报告的观点和信息仅供本公司的专业投资者参考，无意针对或打算违反任何地区、国 家、城市或其它法律管辖区域内的法律法规。本报告难以设置 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年5月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 4 基本面数据 基差 多空因素及主要风险点 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，国外现货回升，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率回落 中性 2、基差：现货15000，基差-40 中性 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比减少 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场情绪主导，短线交易 现货价格 青岛保税区美元报价 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、国内经济逐步复苏 • 2、下游消费高位 • 3、原料价格偏强 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、市场库存增加 • 3、外部环 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 21 日 鸡蛋：等待老鸡淘汰驱动 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao023978@gtjas.com | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2507 | 2,964 | 0.65 | 40,287 | 3,386 | | | 鸡蛋2509 | 3,784 | 0.26 | 10,879 | 1,630 | | | | | 最新日 | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋7-8价差 | | -646 | -691 | | | | 鸡蛋7-9价差 | | -820 | -832 | | | | | | 最新日 | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.10 | 3.20 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.76 | 2.80 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.10 | 3.10 | | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.02 | 3.09 | | | | | | 最新日 | 前一日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current sentiment in the pig market is weak, with a phase of inventory reduction. The north - south fat pig price spread is inverted, group sales of piglets have decreased, and there is evidence of inventory accumulation from the recent pressure of fat pig sales. The official piglet numbers confirm the inventory, leading to a weakening of expectations. There is a possibility of a phase of weight reduction due to trade circulation issues, and the positive spread structure may switch. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and the far - month spread currently deviates from the seasonal reasonable spread. Long - term, it is advisable to continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread, paying attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,750 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 14,250 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; the Guangdong spot price is 15,140 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 150 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of pig futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 are 13,355 yuan/ton (up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year), 13,690 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton year - on - year), and 13,360 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the pig 2507 contract, the trading volume is 5,426 lots (down 1,545 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 27,030 lots (down 704 lots from the previous day); for the 2509 contract, the trading volume is 14,313 lots (down 7,885 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 78,680 lots (down 663 lots from the previous day); for the 2511 contract, the trading volume is 3,176 lots (down 1,047 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 32,179 lots (up 315 lots from the previous day) [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of pig 2507, 2509, and 2511 contracts are 1,395 yuan/ton (down 105 yuan/ton year - on - year), 1,060 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan/ton year - on - year), and 1,390 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively. The 7 - 9 spread is - 335 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the 9 - 11 spread is 330 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values in the [-2, 2] interval for integers. The strength levels are classified as weak,偏弱, neutral, 偏强, and strong, where -2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [3].

【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 838.5 | -6. 5 | -0. 77% | | | | J2509 | 1407.5 | -20.5 | -1.44% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 337517 | 472192 | 13146 | | | | J2509 | 17587 | 55339 | 1709 | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 昨日价格(元/吨) 1230 | 前日价格(元/吨) 1250 | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦煤 | 山西仓单成本 | 975 | 975 | -20 0 | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 970 | 1015 | -45 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1240 | 1240 | 0 | | | | 峰景折人民币 | 1664 | 1663 | 1 | | 现货价格 | 焦煤仓单 | | ...

2025 年 05 月 21 日 短纤：短期震荡，成本支撑偏弱 瓶片：短期震荡，成本支撑偏弱 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2506 | 6520 | 6564 | -44 | PF06-07 | 14 | 20 | -6 | | PF | 短纤2507 | 6506 | 6544 | -38 | PF07-08 | 32 | 36 | -4 | | | 短纤2508 | 6474 | 6508 | -34 | PF基差 | 79 | 91 | -12 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 260177 | 256245 | 3932 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6, 585 | 6. 635 | -50 | | | 短纤成交量 | 250 ...