商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 20 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 对二甲苯：空 PX 多 SC PTA：多 PX 空 PTA MEG： 多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | PX主力收盘 | PTA主力收盘 | MEG主力收盘 | PF主力收盘 | SC主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-20 | 6668 | 4732 | 4413 | 6506 | 3556 | | 2025-05-19 | 6752 | 4776 | 4475 | 6544 | 3563 | | 2025-05-16 | 6744 | 4774 | 4460 | 6550 | 3572 | | 2025-05-15 | 6762 | 4798 | 4461 | 6570 | 3595 | | 2025-05-14 | 6880 | 4874 | 4506 | 6678 | 3647 | | 日 ...

气候模型集体"亮红灯"：美豆生长季或将迎来严重干旱！多头能否提前布局？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆★ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ (implied as no specific star for logs but based on context) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆★ [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides analysis on multiple commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and logs, assessing their supply, demand, inventory, and price trends, and gives corresponding trading suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton maintained a narrow - range oscillation, with a decrease in low - basis spot of domestic cotton and an upward trend in the basis. The cotton yarn market had low confidence but high price - raising willingness due to low inventory. In April 2025, cotton imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 280,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons. From January to April 2025, cumulative imports were 400,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 71%. From September 2024 to April 2025, cumulative imports were 866,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65%. The recent strength of Zhengzhou cotton was driven by Sino - US negotiations, but the impact on downstream orders was limited. The inventory in March - April was well - reduced, and if the negotiations continued to improve, there was an increased expectation of tight inventory at the end of the season. Suggested to wait and see or try the bull - spread strategy of options [2] Sugar - ICE sugar oscillated. In Brazil, the weather in May was favorable for harvesting, and sugarcane and sugar production were expected to rise. Most international consulting firms expected the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season to remain high, above 4 million tons. In China, Zhengzhou sugar maintained an oscillation. In April, the syrup import volume decreased year - on - year. Due to the continuous decline of ICE sugar, the sugar import profit increased, and the import volume was expected to rise later. The market's trading focus shifted to consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales were good, and consumption supported the sugar price. The import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly in Q1, which was also bullish for the supply side. However, the downward trend of ICE sugar limited the upside of Zhengzhou sugar. It was expected that the sugar price would maintain an oscillation in the short term, and it was suggested to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price oscillated, and the spot price remained stable. In Shandong, due to the decrease in downstream demand, the procurement enthusiasm of warehousemen declined, and the cold - storage shipment speed slowed down. Some warehousemen had completed the procurement for the Dragon Boat Festival, and the procurement volume decreased. With the increase in temperature across the country, the demand for apples decreased, and the listing of seasonal fruits also impacted the apple demand. The market's trading focus shifted to the new - season yield estimate. Although the flower quantity in the western producing areas was sufficient this year, the fruit - setting rate was low due to high temperature and strong wind during the flowering period, which might lead to lower - than - expected production. There were still differences in the yield expectation, and it was suggested to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU had a small increase, NR had a small increase, and BR had a large decrease. The domestic natural rubber price was stable with a slight decline, the butadiene rubber price decreased, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price fluctuated. The global natural rubber supply entered the low - production period, and domestic and overseas producing areas were fully tapped. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded significantly last week, Yanshan Petrochemical planned to conduct maintenance at the end of the month, Guangzhou Petrochemical continued to be shut down for maintenance, and several other petrochemical plants operated at a reduced load. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate dropped significantly. The domestic tire operating rate rebounded significantly last week, and the inventory of tire finished products increased again. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 614,200 tons this week, the bonded - area inventory in Qingdao continued to increase significantly, and the general - trade inventory continued to decrease. The domestic butadiene rubber social inventory increased slightly to 13,500 tons last week, and the upstream butadiene port inventory dropped significantly to 30,900 tons. It was suggested to be bullish on RU&NR, wait and see on BR, and gradually reduce the position of cross - variety arbitrage [6] Pulp - The futures price increased slightly. The spot price of Shandong eucalyptus pulp was 6,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the price of Hebei pine pulp was 5,450 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp was 4,200 yuan/ton, remaining stable. As of May 15, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp in China was 2.198 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.0% compared with the previous period. The domestic imported inventory was relatively high year - on - year. The demand for pulp was still weak, and the recent increase was mainly driven by the macro - environment, and the sustainability was still uncertain. It was suggested to wait and see or try to go long lightly after a pull - back [7] Logs - The futures price was weak, and the spot price remained stable. The overseas price of radiata pine continued to decline, and the overseas production willingness increased, while the domestic arrival volume continued to decrease, reducing the supply pressure. The peak season was gradually ending, and the log delivery volume would gradually decrease. The radiata pine arrival volume continued to decrease, reducing the inventory pressure. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand logs might continue to decrease, which was bullish for the supply side. However, the domestic demand was in the off - season, and the price rebound was lack of momentum. It was suggested to wait and see [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand, and it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [2]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly increasing demand, with steady inventory reduction. Option market sentiment is bearish, and it is also recommended for light - position oscillating trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,075 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,134 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts were 50,425 tons, down 94,950 tons; the LME aluminum inventory was 393,450 tons, down 2,000 tons [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 1,719 lots, down 12,309 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.19, up 0.09 [2]. Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 20,230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium was 70 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium was 20,210 dollars/ton, down 40 dollars [2]. - The basis of electrolytic aluminum was 155 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 134 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 732.30 million tons, down 15.22 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 723.72 million tons, up 76.70 million tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina was 26 million tons, down 4 million tons; the import volume of alumina was 1.12 million tons, down 3.05 million tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 29.51 million tons, up 33.55 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum was 250,476.81 tons, up 28,656.52 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum was 13,672.79 tons, up 4,972.94 tons [2]. - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,518.20 million tons, up 1 million tons; the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum was 97.60%, up 0.10% [2]. - The output of aluminum products was 576.40 million tons, down 21.77 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 52 million tons, up 1 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of aluminum alloy was 152.80 million tons, down 12.70 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.66 million tons, down 0.16 million tons [2]. - The automobile production was 2.604 million vehicles, down 0.4406 million vehicles; the national real - estate prosperity index was 93.86, down 0.09 [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 11.67%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.46%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV was 10.05%, down 0.0009%; the option call - put ratio was 0.83, up 0.0841 [2]. Industry News - In April, China's economy grew steadily under pressure. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - In April, the new - home prices in first - and second - tier cities were flat month - on - month, and those in third - tier cities declined slightly. The year - on - year decline of housing prices in all tiers continued to narrow [2]. - Starting from May 20, many state - owned large - scale banks and some joint - stock banks will cut the RMB deposit listed interest rates again [2]. - The European Commission lowered the European economic growth forecast. It is predicted that the eurozone GDP will grow by 0.9% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026 [2]. - Fed officials made statements on economic policies and the Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating [2].

2025 年 5 月 20 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 氧化铝期货将偏强宽幅震荡 铜、原 油期货将偏强震荡 螺纹钢、铁矿石期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2506 阻力位 3850 和 3873 点，支撑位 3830 和 3816 点；IH2506 阻力位 2699 和 2727 点，支撑位 2681 和 2664 点；IC2506 阻力位 5663 和 5700 点，支撑位 5560 和 5544 点；IM2506 阻力位 6000 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Products**: A-share index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure; short - term treasury bonds may oscillate; precious metals show certain price patterns and trends; the rally of the container shipping index may slow down [2]. - **Industrial Products**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating; iron ore, coke, and other black commodities have different price trends and market situations; various energy and chemical products have different supply - demand and price characteristics [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products such as soybeans, hogs, and sugar have their own market trends and influencing factors [2]. - **Special and New Energy Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic; rubber prices are affected by news; new energy products like lithium carbonate are in a downward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure. A - shares open lower and oscillate with trading volume maintaining at the trillion - level. Suggest selling put options on the support level of IF2506 to earn premiums, or going long on September IM contracts on pullbacks and selling call options with an exercise price of 6400 on September contracts for covered strategies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term treasury bonds may oscillate, waiting for fundamental guidance. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on high - frequency economic data and liquidity dynamics [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold forms a "double - top" pattern and oscillates narrowly between 3200 - 3300 US dollars (750 - 770 yuan); silver fluctuates between 32 - 33.5 US dollars (8000 - 8350 yuan). The sold out - of - the - money gold call options can be held; Moody's downgrades the US credit rating, causing declines in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets and a slight increase in precious metals [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The emotional release is sufficient, and the upward momentum may slow down. Consider 8 - 10, 6 - 10 positive spreads, and wait and see for unilateral operations [2]. Industrial - **Steel**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Iron ore oscillates between 700 - 745. Coke and coking coal prices are in a downward phase. Suggest long - hot - rolled steel and short - coke or short - coking coal strategies [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different products have different trends. For example, PX continues to have limited upward momentum; PTA oscillates at a high level between 4600 - 5000; short - fiber prices follow raw materials; ethanol's supply - demand structure improves; styrene has short - term oscillation and medium - term bearishness [2]. Agricultural - Different agricultural products have various market situations. For example, US soybeans oscillate, hogs' futures and spot prices oscillate weakly in the short term, and sugar has positive data from Brazil in late April [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic, and attention is paid to whether it can break through the 1000 - point level; rubber prices rise slightly due to storage news and can be lightly shorted at the upper end of the 14500 - 15500 range [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Lithium carbonate maintains a downward trend, with the main contract referring to 60,000 - 63,000 yuan; polysilicon futures oscillate with near - term strength and long - term weakness [2].

| | | 甲醇日评20250520: 反弹沾空初步印证 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 单位 2025/5/16 指标 2025/5/19 (绝对目) | | | | | 変化值 (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2340.00 | 2353.00 | -13.00 | -0.55% | | | | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2300.00 | 2367.00 | -67.00 | -2.83% | | | 甲醇期货价格 (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2272.00 | 2284.00 | -12.00 | -0.53% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2337.50 | 2372.50 | -35.00 | -1.48% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2325.00 | 2360.00 | -35.00 | -1.48% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2355.00 | 2385.00 | -30.00 | -1.26% | | 及 ...

Cost Side - LPG prices have become the most significant marginal variable for PP costs, especially after the commissioning of numerous PDH-based PP plants post-2022, reducing the impact of coal-based processes on PP [2] - From July to September 2023, LPG prices surged from 3,800 RMB/ton to 5,660 RMB/ton, an increase of nearly 50%, leading to a corresponding rise in PP prices from 6,900 RMB/ton to 8,100 RMB/ton, approximately a 17% increase [2] - The LL-PP price spread decreased significantly from 855 RMB/ton in July to 392 RMB/ton, a drop of 54% [2] - LPG valuation is currently much higher than that of crude oil and naphtha, suggesting that even with OPEC+ production increases leading to lower crude prices, LPG is expected to decline more sharply, further driving down PP prices and widening the LL-PP spread [2] Supply Side - The production mismatch between PP and LL is expected to accelerate the widening of the LL-PP spread, with a total PP production plan of 3.7 million tons, including nearly 2.2 million tons in June, while LL has only 1.4 million tons planned for the entire year [10] - The production mismatch in June 2023 mirrors that of 2022, with a significant 200,000 tons capacity mismatch, leading to expectations of a widening LL-PP spread starting from late May to early June [10] Export Side - In 2024, PP export volumes are expected to double year-on-year, reaching an average of 180,000 tons per month, marking a significant development for PP exports [11] - However, due to fluctuations caused by the U.S. "tariff sanctions" policy, PP export volumes have decreased compared to last year, which may support a bullish outlook for the LL-PP spread [11]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 05 月 20 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：关注矿端影响 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtjt.com 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20110 | -20 | 200 | 425 | -440 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20040 | ー | - | ー | । | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2436 | -49 | -34 | ર્ | -225 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 199900 | 63926 | 13121 | 54032 | 81078 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 201358 | -2699 | 33713 | ୧୧୫ | 32729 | | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 30455 | 19245 | 14931 | 172 ...

2025 年 05 月 20 日 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | （日盘） 收盘价 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） | 4182 +17（+0.41%） | 4177 | -7（-0.17%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2886 -16（-0.55%） | 2872 | -21 （-0.73%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1051.25 +0.25（+0.02%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 291.2 -0.6（-0.21%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | 山东 （元/吨） 持平； | 较昨-100至-20； 2960～3000， 持平或-10； M2509-60/-50/-30， 8-9月M2509+20/+30/+50/+60， | 现货基差M2509+100/+140 ...