Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On November 26, the manganese silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5,630, down 0.25%. Fundamentally, inventory is rising rapidly, production at a high level continues to decline slightly, and inventory has been rising for 8 consecutive weeks. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile. [2] - On November 26, the ferrosilicon 2603 contract was reported at 5,416, down 0.70%. In terms of supply and demand, market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand restocking, prices are falling, and inventory has decreased this period. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile. [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,416 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan [2]. - The SM futures contract positions were 734,411 lots, up 17,984 lots; the SF futures contract positions were 462,307 lots, up 15,677 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in manganese silicon were - 11,815 lots, down 6,298 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in ferrosilicon were - 17,136 lots, up 147 lots [2]. - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 52 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was - 16 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The SM warehouse receipts were 21,189 lots; the SF warehouse receipts were 10,973 lots, down 20 lots [2]. Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,430 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,270 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan [2]. - The price of Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,100 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The price of Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - The average value of the manganese silicon index was 5,515.75 yuan/ton, down 63.25 yuan; the basis of the SF main contract was - 216 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SM main contract was - 200 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 lumps at Tianjin Port was 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu) was 880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The manganese ore port inventory was 426.30 tons, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The manganese silicon enterprise operating rate was 39.13%, down 0.46%; the ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate was 33.81%, down 1.03% [2]. - The manganese silicon supply was 196,910 tons, down 2,660 tons; the ferrosilicon supply was 108,300 tons, down 800 tons [2]. - The manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 363,000 tons, up 13,500 tons; the ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 73,050 tons, down 8,310 tons [2]. - The national steel mill inventory of manganese silicon was 15.70 days, down 0.23 days; the national steel mill inventory of ferrosilicon was 15.67 days, up 0.15 days [2]. - The demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel types was 121,407 tons, up 2,818 tons; the demand for ferrosilicon from the five major steel types was 19,543 tons, up 469.20 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.17%, down 0.62%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - The crude steel output was 7,199.70 tons, down 149.31 tons [2]. Industry News - The "Work Plan for the Classification and Disposal of Coal Mines below 600,000 Tons per Year in Shaanxi Province" was issued, aiming to optimize the coal industry structure [2]. - On November 24, South Korea announced anti - dumping duties on Chinese medium - thick plates and alloy steel hot - rolled thick plates, with some product tax rates up to 34.10% [2]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready to advance a framework agreement to end the war with Russia [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that coking coal futures are experiencing low volatility, with the main contract reported at 1085.5 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.05% [1] - As of November 25, coal inventory at northern ports (excluding Huanghua Port) reached 23.98 million tons, an increase of 8.56% compared to the same period last month [2] - The coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.68 million tons, up 2.71% year-on-year, while Caofeidian Port's coal outflow was 523,000 tons, marking an increase of 8.96% [2] Group 2 - As of November 21, the total coking coal inventory across 16 national ports was 4.569 million tons, a decrease of 313,000 tons; specifically, the inventory at North China ports was 2.43 million tons, down 40,000 tons [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.10%, unchanged from the previous period; total coking coal inventory was 8.8922 million tons, down 335,600 tons, with available days of coking coal at 13.4 days, a decrease of 0.4 days [2] - One德期货 notes that macroeconomic disturbances are present, with terminal demand under pressure, yet downstream coal procurement demand remains consistent, leading to a notable rise in coal stock prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: In Malaysia, the BMD crude palm oil futures may gradually recover and rise after the release of risks following the MPOB report and as India returns to the market next month. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures are under pressure to decline, with an expected support level at 8200. - Soybean oil: The uncertainty of biodiesel policies and short - term soybean export data affect the CBOT soybean and soybean oil. Domestically, the increase in soybean oil production and weak downstream demand lead to an increase in inventory, but the poor oil - mill profit and weak demand for soybean meal support the price. The spot basis quotation will maintain a narrow - range oscillation [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry The market supply is recovering, and the demand support is limited. Although there are sporadic epidemics in the Northeast, large - scale outbreaks are unlikely. The pig price is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating structure, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [4]. 2.3 Meal Industry The US soybean market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the South American new - crop soybean planting progress is good. Domestically, the soybean inventory is high, and the meal supply is loose. The meal price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [6]. 2.4 Corn Industry The corn price in the Northeast is strong due to limited logistics and storage support, while the price in North China is affected by the increase in supply. The demand side has different inventory replenishment intentions. The short - term supply - demand mismatch makes the futures price strong, but attention should be paid to the pressure caused by concentrated grain sales [9]. 2.5 Sugar Industry The ICE raw sugar futures are rising. Although the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region is expected to increase in the first half of November, the early end of the harvest and lower ethanol inventory support the price. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern [13][14]. 2.6 Cotton Industry The ICE cotton futures are rising due to the US Department of Agriculture's export sales report and a weaker dollar. Domestically, the high production of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season brings hedging pressure, but the strong basis and downstream demand support the price. The cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry The current egg price is below the feed cost line, and the inventory in production and circulation links has decreased. It is expected that the egg price will have limited downward space and will oscillate at a low level, with attention paid to the support at the previous low [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean oil**: On November 25, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8510 yuan/ton (up 0.24% from the previous day), the futures price of Y2601 was 8144 yuan/ton (down 0.29% from the previous day), and the basis was 13.66%. The inventory of soybean oil in factories increased by 30,000 tons last weekend [1]. - **Palm oil**: On November 25, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8370 yuan/ton (down 0.71% from the previous day), the futures price of P2601 was 8360 yuan/ton (down 1.48% from the previous day). The盘面 import cost in Guangzhou Port in January was 8932.4 yuan/ton (down 1.08% from the previous day), and the盘面 import profit was - 543 yuan/ton (down 5.32% from the previous day) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On November 25, the spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10190 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the futures price of OI601 was 9818 yuan/ton (up 0.41% from the previous day), and the basis was - 9.71% [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry - **Futures indicators**: The main contract price of live pigs was 11995 yuan/ton (up 0.59% from the previous day), the 1 - 5 spread was - 580 yuan/ton (down 10.48% from the previous day), and the main contract position decreased by 4.44% [4]. - **Spot prices**: The spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend, with the price in Henan dropping by 150 - 180 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot indicators**: The sample - point slaughter volume increased by 0.04%, the white - strip price decreased by 100%, the self - breeding profit decreased by 18.37%, and the外购 breeding profit decreased by 14.10% [4]. 3.3 Meal Industry - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3000 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the futures price of M2601 was 3013 yuan/ton (up 0.07% from the previous day), and the basis was - 18.18%. The盘面 import profit for Brazilian February shipments increased by 333.3% [6]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2460 yuan/ton (up 0.82% from the previous day), the futures price of RM2601 was 2431 yuan/ton (down 0.61% from the previous day), and the basis was 583.33%. The盘面 import profit for Canadian January shipments increased by 9.54% [6]. - **Soybean**: The spot price in Harbin was 3940 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4108 yuan/ton (down 1.01% from the previous day), and the basis was 20% [6]. 3.4 Corn Industry - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2601 was 2242 yuan/ton (up 0.99% from the previous day), the basis was - 6.67%, the 1 - 5 spread was 52.27%, the import profit increased by 8.49%, and the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong's deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 7.46% [9]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2601 was 2556 yuan/ton (up 0.83% from the previous day), the basis decreased by 84%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 3.13%, and the starch - corn 01盘面 spread decreased by 0.32%. The profit of Shandong's starch enterprises increased by 1000% [9]. 3.5 Sugar Industry - **Futures market**: The sugar 2601 futures price was 5387 yuan/ton (up 0.32% from the previous day), the 1 - 5 spread increased by 21.57%, and the main contract position decreased by 2.73% [13]. - **Spot market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming were unchanged. The import price of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) increased by 0.59%, and the import price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) increased by 0.62% [13]. - **Industry situation**: The national sugar production increased by 12.03%, the sales increased by 9.17%, the national industrial inventory decreased by 41.20%, and the sugar import increased by 37.50% [13]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures market**: The cotton 2605 futures price was 13580 yuan/ton (up 0.37% from the previous day), the cotton 2601 futures price was 13645 yuan/ton (up 0.44% from the previous day), the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 18.18%, and the main contract position increased by 0.09% [15]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.17%, the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.26%, and the FC Index: M: 1% increased by 0.18% [15]. - **Industry situation**: The industrial inventory increased by 24.2%, the import volume decreased by 10%, the textile industry's inventory decreased by 25%, and the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6% [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry - **Futures indicators**: The egg 12 - contract price was 2950 yuan/500KG (down 1.42% from the previous day), the egg 01 - contract price was 3210 yuan/500KG (down 0.25% from the previous day), and the 12 - 01 spread decreased by 13.08% [18]. - **Spot indicators**: The egg - producing area price increased by 1.11%, the egg - chick price decreased by 3.57%, the culled - hen price decreased by 3.96%, and the egg - feed ratio decreased by 3.33%. The breeding profit decreased by 18.60% [18]. - **Inventory situation**: The production - link inventory decreased by 8.62%, and the circulation - link inventory decreased by 2.22% [18].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Apple investment strategy: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red date investment strategy: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The current apple futures price has slightly increased, but the warehouse - based trading in the production areas is generally weak. The new - season late Fuji apple's storage volume is more than 10% lower than last year, and the demand side is under pressure. The follow - up should focus on terminal consumption recovery, storage structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchant inventory transfer [1][2][3] - Red dates: The red date futures price fluctuated and closed down. The acquisition progress and prices vary among different production areas. The supply in the sales areas is limited or sufficient, and the new - product prices vary greatly. The market is in a critical transition period, with high inventory pressure and pessimistic future expectations. The future focus will be on the actual consumption situation [5][6][8] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract was 9,491 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan over - 70 semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract was 9,175 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or 0.54% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Group 4: Recent Market Information Apple - The in - warehouse trading of late Fuji is slow, and the overall shipment is average. The outbound speed in the western production areas has slowed down slightly, while the Shandong production area has sporadic outbound shipments, mainly through foreign trade channels. After a round of restocking, the market atmosphere in the production areas has become dull due to slow sales [2] Red dates - The acquisition progress of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is about 50%, and the transfer volume of goods rights is about 30% of the total output. The prices in the production areas have dropped slightly. The acquisition progress varies by region. The sales areas have limited or sufficient supply, and the new - product prices vary due to quality and cost [6][7] Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - The futures price of apples rose slightly yesterday. The in - warehouse trading in the production areas was generally weak. The new - season late Fuji's storage work was basically completed last week, with the storage volume more than 10% lower than last year. The consumer demand is mainly on - demand procurement, and the sales space is squeezed by citrus [3] Red dates - The futures price of red dates fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The acquisition progress and prices vary among production areas, and the enterprise acquisition enthusiasm is average. The new - product prices in the sales areas vary greatly, and the market is in a critical period of transition. The inventory pressure is high, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated [8] Group 6: Strategies Apple - Be neutral to bullish. The current expectations of storage volume and structure have been reflected in the price. The follow - up should focus on terminal consumption recovery, storage structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchant inventory transfer, and be cautious when chasing high prices [4] Red dates - Be neutral. If the terminal market can accept and digest the current high - priced new - season spot in the production areas, it will drive the futures price to return to the new - season spot price; otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to fall. The near - month contract may still have some room to fall [9]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-11-26 原油端延续弱势，局部现货下跌 市场分析 1、11月25日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3068元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨36元/吨，涨幅 1.19%；持仓153792手，环比下跌7249手，成交160056手，环比减少66769手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2990—3470元/吨；华南，3050—3210元/吨； 华东，3200—3400元/吨。 近期原油价格走势偏弱，沥青成本端支撑不足，但在自身绝对价格跌至低位后，市场底部信号已开始出现。现货 方面，昨日西北、山东、华南以及川渝地区沥青现货价格出现下跌，华北地区沥青现货价格小幅反弹，其余地区 沥青现货价格大体企稳。部分主营炼厂下调沥青结算价格，带动区域沥青现货价格下跌。从基本面来看，当前供 需两弱格局延续，虽然终端需求逐步步入淡季，但在炼厂开工率和产量出现明显下滑态势，多家炼厂转产渣油， 沥青装置开工率降至绝对低位，北方出现提货紧张的状况。不过目前冬储需求还没有明确释放的迹象，市场情绪 相对平淡，反弹动力仍不足。整体来看，沥青市场下行压力已有所缓解， ...

| | | | | | | | EATH FANTER FOR | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/26 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) | RB2605 | HC2605 | 12605 | J2605 | JM2605 | 7000 6000 | | ...

航运日报 | 2025-11-26 马士基12月第二周报价环比下调，12月合约交割结算价格估 值下修 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹12月第一周价格1610/2520，12月第二周价格介于2200-2300美元/FEU； HPL -SPOT 12月上半月船期报价2235-2535美元/FEU，12月下半月价格3535美元/FEU。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 12月上半月价格1485/2465；ONE 12月上半月价格1565/2435；HMM上海-鹿特丹12 月上半月船司价格1468/2506; YML 12/7-12/14 报价1350/2200。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹12月上半月船期报价1535/2675；EMC 11月下半月船期报价1855/2810，12月上 半月价格2005/3110；OOCL 12月上半月报价介于2280-2630美元/FEU 地缘端：马士基发言人：苏伊士运河管理局此前关于将于12月恢复通航的声明不实。马士基发言人：公司尚未确 定何时将恢复通过苏伊士运河的部分航行。 动态供给： ...

化工日报 | 2025-11-26 泰国主产区降雨将逐步减少 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15125元/吨，较前一日变动-195元/吨；NR主力合约12150元/吨，较前一日变动-125 元/吨；BR主力合约10270元/吨，较前一日变动-125元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14550元/吨，较前一 日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1830美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1720 美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10350元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比增长4%。 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-26 铝价震荡等待下一波上涨驱动力 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21440元/吨，较上一交易日变化80元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价21330元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-120元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21340元/吨，较上一交易日变化100元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-110元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-11-25日沪铝主力合约开于21415元/吨，收于21465元/吨，较上一交易日变化85元/吨，最 高价达21525元/吨，最低价达到21380元/吨。全天交易日成交157390手，全天交易日持仓271763手。 库存方面，截止2025-11-25，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存61.3万吨，较上一期变化-0.8万吨，仓单库存69283 吨，较上一交易日变化-125吨，LME铝库存543725吨，较上一交易日变化-2225吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-25SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2835元/吨，山东价格录得2770元/吨，河南价格录得 2860 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg markets is cautiously bearish [3][5] Core Viewpoints - For the pig market, future supply will increase, especially in December with concentrated slaughter from散户 and secondary fattening. The supply-demand situation remains loose as supply growth outpaces consumption growth despite ongoing demand increase [2] - For the egg market, current consumption is in a weak state. Although egg production capacity is gradually decreasing, the short - term supply - demand imbalance persists, and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract was 11,415 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 11.45 yuan/kg, down 0.20 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.57 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Wholesale market: On November 25, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.24 points, the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.28 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.72 yuan/kg, down 1.1% [1] Market Analysis - Future supply will increase, and the supply - demand situation will remain loose as supply growth outpaces consumption growth [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract was 3202 yuan/500 kilograms, down 8 yuan or 0.25% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.82 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan; in Shandong, it was 3.00 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.64 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Inventory: On November 25, the national production - link inventory was 1.06 days, down 0.10 days or 8.62%; the circulation - link inventory was 1.32 days, down 0.03 days or 2.22% [3] Market Analysis - Consumption demand is weak. Although egg production capacity is gradually decreasing, the short - term supply - demand imbalance persists, and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]