化工日报 | 2025-06-12 供应陆续回升，EG震荡运行 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4285元/吨（较前一交易日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.37%），EG华东市场现货价 4375元/吨（较前一交易日变动-5元/吨，幅度-0.11%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）93元/吨（环比-11元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-38美元/吨（环比+1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为60元/吨（环比+0 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为63.4万吨（环比+1.3万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为59.8万吨（环比+2.1万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.1万吨，港口库存平稳略增； 本周华东主港计划到港总数12.8万吨，加上偏港大概20万吨，偏多，港口有累库可能。 整体基本面供需逻辑： 供应端，卫星、恒力等几套大装置检修时间较长，6月国内供应端恢复幅度有限，供需结 构依旧表现良性，但是仓单陆续注销流出后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充，海外到港将陆续回升；需求端，聚 酯减产下需求有所回落，后续关注聚 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The EC of the container shipping European line declined, with the 08 contract closing at 2001.5 points, a decrease of 2.10%. After the China-US economic and trade talks in Geneva in mid-May, the main 08 contract reached a high of over 2400 points, corresponding to a large container freight rate of about $3700. The average price of large containers in the second half of June was $3000, a difference of about $700. From the price increase in June to the end of the month, the monthly increase in large container prices was about $1000. Currently, the 08 contract basically follows the spot freight rate fluctuations, and whether it can break through the previous high depends on the price increases and implementation in July and August. The capacity in the 23rd week was partially increased to the 24th and 25th weeks, causing a sharp increase in capacity in these two weeks, especially in the 24th week when the deployed capacity exceeded 350,000 TEU. As the shipping date approaches, the capacity deployment rhythm in June also adds pressure to the freight rate increase in July. Shipping companies are not restrained in capacity deployment. The current market valuation is relatively neutral but the expectation is weak. It is expected to continue the volatile pattern, and shorting opportunities on rallies can be considered [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - The latest transaction price of EC2506 was 1926 points, with a decline of 0.79%, a trading volume of 1568 (a decrease of 280 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 6764 (a decrease of 504 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members was 100 [2]. - The latest transaction price of EC2508 was 2001.5 points, with a decline of 2.10%, a trading volume of 55132 (a decrease of 4576 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 44603 (a decrease of 891 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members was -1907 [2]. - The latest transaction price of EC2510 was 1371.1 points, with an increase of 1.38%, a trading volume of 12283 (an increase of 2456 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 25054 (an increase of 871 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members was 0 [2]. - The latest transaction price of EC2512 was 1554.9 points, with an increase of 0.94%, a trading volume of 2014 (an increase of 557 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 4730 (an increase of 93 compared to the previous period) [2]. - The latest transaction price of EC2602 was 1402.4 points, with an increase of 1.22%, a trading volume of 393 (an increase of 67 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 2869 (an increase of 49 compared to the previous period) [2]. - The latest transaction price of EC2604 was 1242.9 points, with an increase of 1.34%, a trading volume of 524 (an increase of 113 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 3384 (a decrease of 21 compared to the previous period) [2]. - The total trading volume was 71914, and the total open interest was 87404. The total long positions of the top 20 members were 28317, the total short positions were 30124, and the net long position was -1807 [2]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - The latest SCFIS index was 1622.81 points, with a weekly increase of 29.5%. The SCFI was $1667/TEU, with a weekly increase of 5.0%. The TCI (20GP) was $1849/TEU, with a daily increase of 0.0%. The TCI (40GP) was $2980/FEU, with a daily increase of 0.0% [4]. Basis Spread - The basis of the previous trading day was -378.69 points, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day was -419.29 points, with a change of 40.6 points [6]. Spot Market Data - The deployed capacity on the Asia-Europe route was 511,798 TEU, a decrease of 3002 TEU compared to the previous period. The idle capacity ratio was 1.7%. The average sailing speed of container ships was 13.88 knots, and the average sailing speed of container ships over 17000 TEU was 15.46 knots [7]. - The in-port capacity in Rotterdam was 232,100 TEU, in Hamburg was 108,300 TEU, and in Singapore was 358,600 TEU. The number of ships bypassing the Aden Gulf was 8, the northbound traffic volume through the Suez Canal was 1, and the southbound traffic volume was 2 [7]. - The regular charter rates for 9000 TEU (6 - 12 months) were $104,000 per day, for 6500 TEU were $68,500 per day, and for 2500 TEU were $34,750 per day [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot premium of zinc has further weakened. The supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high supply growth rate likely in the second half of the year. Although consumption is strong, it cannot offset the high supply growth and shows signs of weakening seasonally [1][4] - For trading strategies, a cautious and bearish stance is recommended for single - side trading, and a neutral stance for arbitrage [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$33.05/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 140 yuan/ton to 22,300 yuan/ton, with the premium down 20 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,300 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,260 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 235 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On June 11, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,900 yuan/ton and closed at 22,140 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 170,227 lots, an increase of 11,596 lots. Open interest was 125,779 lots, a decrease of 9,292 lots. The highest price was 22,205 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,855 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of June 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 81,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from last week. As of June 11, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 132,575 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Spot market: After the absolute price increase, the spot purchasing enthusiasm declined, and the spot premium further weakened [4] - Supply: Port and smelter raw material inventories are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are high. Supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and long - term high supply growth likely in the second half of the year [4] - Consumption: Overall consumption is strong, but the impact of China - US tariffs has not yet appeared. It cannot offset the high supply growth, and there are signs of seasonal weakening [4] Strategy - Single - side trading: Cautious and bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 区间运行 | 宏观情绪有所改善，但对黑色系供需影响有限。螺纹钢自身处于供需双弱 | | | | 的状态，旺盛的出口缓解了高铁水的供应压力，而原料端仍存在一定出货 | | 螺纹钢 | | 压力。现实基本面尚未出现明显改善，情绪性交易退却后，重回区间运行。 | | | | 【2960，3000】 | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 热卷产量回升，表观需求回落，库存止降转增，数据偏弱。出口后期存在 | | | | 回落可能，同时黑色链整体过剩的局面持续压制行情表现。宏观氛围转暖， | | | | 但对实际供需影响有限，后市或重回区间运行。【3080，3120】 | | 铁矿石 | 震荡偏弱 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量再降，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | | | 供给端发到货双增，港口钢厂库存双降。近端铁矿供需结构中性偏弱。区 | | | | 间参与为主，单边空单持有。【680,715】 | | 焦炭 | 震荡运行 | 钢厂开启第三轮提降，焦企利润进一步下降。虽然已出现部分减产现象， 但整体产量仍然较高，开 ...

豆粕：资金炒作下的反弹行情 | 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 3047 | 3031 | 16 | 0. 53% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 2967. 14 | 2953. 14 | 14 | 0. 47% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 2900 | 2900 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3237.5 | 3237.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 蒸花粕 | 元/吨 | 2252.5 | 2240 | 12.5 | 0. 56% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3850 | 3850 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1333. 33 | 1333. 33 | 0 | ...

2025年06月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 合成橡胶：原油偏强，短期震荡有支撑 | 4 | | 沥青：原油大幅反弹，出货继续放缓 | 6 | | LLDPE：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 8 | | PP：价格小涨，成交一般 | 10 | | 烧碱：高利润背景下估值承压 | 11 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：反弹格局延续 | 16 | | 尿素：偏弱运行 | 17 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 19 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：地缘冲突升级，关注极端风险 | 21 | | PVC：短期震荡，趋势仍有压力 | 24 | | 燃料油：持续反弹，近月相对偏弱 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：短线转强，外盘现货高低硫价差再次上行 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡，10-12反套持有 | 27 | | 短纤：成本抬升，跟随上涨 | 31 | | 瓶片：成本抬升，跟随上涨 | 31 | | 胶版印刷纸：震荡运行 | 32 | 国 泰 君 ...

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 06 月 12 日 2025年06月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 铜：库存减少，限制价格回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 铝：关注中美谈判进展 | 4 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 4 | | 锌：短期震荡，关注库存 | 6 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 7 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 8 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 10 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 10 | 铜：库存减少，限制价格回落 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei015111@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,290 | 0.52% | 78570 | -0.91% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,647 | - ...

观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：主产地区减产仍存，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：海外矿企报价下移，偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 10 | 2025年06月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 12 日 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 707.0 | 8. 5 | 1.22% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The lithium carbonate futures broke through and rose, with the total open interest increasing by 7,201 lots. The smooth progress of the Sino-US tariff negotiation and consultation led to a recovery of market optimism, and the prices of major industrial products rose. Coupled with the news from Zimbabwe that it will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027, the lithium carbonate futures led the gains. The spot price continued to rise slightly. The lithium carbonate futures main contract switched to the 09 contract, and after a continuous decline in the second quarter, it stood above the trend line for the first time, with the rebound momentum gradually strengthening. It is expected to continue the strong trend in the short term driven by the sentiment, but the current supply and demand side is still difficult to support the price reversal [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures broke through and rose, with the total open interest increasing by 7,201 lots. The smooth progress of the Sino-US tariff negotiation and consultation led to a recovery of market optimism, and the prices of major industrial products rose. The lithium carbonate futures led the gains. - The spot price continued to rise slightly. The electric carbon rose by 150 to 60,500, the high-grade lithium spodumene ore rose by 45 yuan/ton, and the high-grade lithium mica ore rose by 25 yuan/ton. The stop of the decline and the rise of the ore price supported the lithium carbonate price. The lithium iron phosphate rose by 40, while the prices of the 6-series and 8-series ternary materials continued to decline. - The lithium carbonate futures main contract switched to the 09 contract. After a continuous decline in the second quarter, it stood above the trend line for the first time, with the rebound momentum gradually strengthening. It is expected to continue the strong trend in the short term driven by the sentiment, but the current supply and demand side is still difficult to support the price reversal [6]. 3.2 Industry News - Zhengzhou Sheng Guan Chu Ju Technology Co., Ltd. was established, with a registered capital of 5 million yuan. It is wholly-owned by Shenzhen Yi Chu Energy Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Ganfeng Lithium [10]. - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from January 2027 to encourage foreign mining companies to carry out refining operations in the country and promote more domestic processing. Zimbabwe is the largest lithium producer in Africa and banned the export of lithium ore in 2022 [10]. - Jinchuan International's copper production in the three months ended March 31, 2025, increased by about 6.8% year-on-year to 13,914 tons, mainly due to the unstable power supply at the Ruashi mine, which suspended the high-power-consuming SX-EW system and switched to producing copper concentrate. The cobalt production decreased by about 86.6% year-on-year to 71 tons. The copper sales volume decreased by about 9.5% year-on-year to 11,957 tons. Affected by the four-month suspension of cobalt exports by the Congolese government, the sales of copper concentrate at the Ruashi mine were blocked. The company did not sell any cobalt, while 318 tons were sold in the same period in 2024. The company continued to be suspended [11].

2025年06月12日 2025 年 6 月 12 日 品 研 究 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地压力分歧较大，震荡磨底 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：驱动暂时不强，区间震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：天气良好、美豆收跌，连粕冲高回落 | 4 | | 豆一：省储抛储预期，盘面回落 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 8 | | 棉花：继续受市场情绪影响 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：梅雨季利空释放，等待淘鸡印证 | 11 | | 生猪：继续等待现货印证 | 12 | | 花生：关注现货 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地压力分歧较大，震荡磨底 豆油：驱动暂时不强，区间震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 7,970 | 涨跌幅 -1.80% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 7,990 | 涨跌幅 0.25% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...