化工日报 | 2025-11-26 泰国主产区降雨将逐步减少 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15125元/吨，较前一日变动-195元/吨；NR主力合约12150元/吨，较前一日变动-125 元/吨；BR主力合约10270元/吨，较前一日变动-125元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14550元/吨，较前一 日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1830美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1720 美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10350元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比增长4%。 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-26 铝价震荡等待下一波上涨驱动力 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21440元/吨，较上一交易日变化80元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价21330元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-120元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21340元/吨，较上一交易日变化100元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-110元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-11-25日沪铝主力合约开于21415元/吨，收于21465元/吨，较上一交易日变化85元/吨，最 高价达21525元/吨，最低价达到21380元/吨。全天交易日成交157390手，全天交易日持仓271763手。 库存方面，截止2025-11-25，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存61.3万吨，较上一期变化-0.8万吨，仓单库存69283 吨，较上一交易日变化-125吨，LME铝库存543725吨，较上一交易日变化-2225吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-25SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2835元/吨，山东价格录得2770元/吨，河南价格录得 2860 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg markets is cautiously bearish [3][5] Core Viewpoints - For the pig market, future supply will increase, especially in December with concentrated slaughter from散户 and secondary fattening. The supply-demand situation remains loose as supply growth outpaces consumption growth despite ongoing demand increase [2] - For the egg market, current consumption is in a weak state. Although egg production capacity is gradually decreasing, the short - term supply - demand imbalance persists, and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract was 11,415 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 11.45 yuan/kg, down 0.20 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.57 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Wholesale market: On November 25, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.24 points, the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.28 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.72 yuan/kg, down 1.1% [1] Market Analysis - Future supply will increase, and the supply - demand situation will remain loose as supply growth outpaces consumption growth [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract was 3202 yuan/500 kilograms, down 8 yuan or 0.25% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.82 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan; in Shandong, it was 3.00 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.64 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Inventory: On November 25, the national production - link inventory was 1.06 days, down 0.10 days or 8.62%; the circulation - link inventory was 1.32 days, down 0.03 days or 2.22% [3] Market Analysis - Consumption demand is weak. Although egg production capacity is gradually decreasing, the short - term supply - demand imbalance persists, and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, the supply - demand pattern improves during the dry season, but the total inventory is high and lacks driving force. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise [1][3]. - For polysilicon, both supply and demand have decreased, the overall inventory pressure is large, and the consumer - end performance is average. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations, and is expected to be mainly volatile [4][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,940 yuan/ton and closed at 8,960 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton (0.11%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract at the close was 263,919 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 40,714 lots, a change of - 810 lots from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price was stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat [1]. - As of the end of October, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%; wind power installed capacity was 590 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.4%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total new photovoltaic capacity was 253GW [1]. - The consumption - end organic silicon DMC quotation was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton. The current mainstream quotation was around 13,100 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Manufacturers had a strong willingness to support prices, and downstream enterprises actively followed up. The market's confidence in a price increase was enhanced, but the increase needed to be digested. The market was expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2601 showed a strong - side volatile operation, opening at 53,315 yuan/ton and closing at 54,730 yuan/ton, a 2.79% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 129,077 lots (128,427 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 235,600 lots [4]. - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.60 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.10 (a 1.50% month - on - month change), silicon wafer inventory was 18.72GW (a 1.63% month - on - month change), polysilicon weekly output was 27,100.00 tons (a 1.11% month - on - month change), and silicon wafer output was 12.78GW (a - 2.59% month - on - month change) [4][5]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.57 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece. Enterprises accelerated the production - reduction rhythm at the end of November, and the OEM orders of specialized factories decreased significantly, so the actual production schedule for the month was likely to be lower than expected [5]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was about 0.29 yuan/W (- 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon G12 was 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.28 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead market is "Neutral" [4] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead ore remains tight, and processing fees stay at a low level. The operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead smelting are both low, resulting in limited supply pressure. On the consumption side, it remains stable without a strong recovery signal. It is expected that the lead price will continue to fluctuate, roughly in the range of 17,000 - 17,700 RMB/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.49/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,000 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 0.00 RMB/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,075 RMB/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,000 RMB/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,000 RMB/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 9,950 RMB/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 10,075 RMB/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 10,300 RMB/ton [1] Futures Market - On November 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,115 RMB/ton and closed at 17,045 RMB/ton, a decrease of 90 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 40,496 lots, an increase of 2,076 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest for the whole trading day was 52,466 lots, a decrease of 422 lots from the previous trading day. During the day, the price fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 17,130 RMB/ton and a minimum of 17,010 RMB/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,065 RMB/ton and closed at 17,055 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day. As reported by SMM, the SMM 1 lead price decreased by 75 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. Lead smelters in Henan mainly sold through long - term contracts, with few spot quotes. Traders' quotes were at a discount of 80 - 30 RMB/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract for ex - factory sales. As the lead price declined, the discount in traders' quotes gradually narrowed, and large - discount goods were traded. Lead smelters in Hunan generally held firm on prices. Branded lead was quoted at a premium of 50 RMB/ton to the SMM 1 lead, with some transactions from rigid - demand buyers. Traders' quotes were at a discount of 30 RMB/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract for ex - factory sales. Traders in Yunnan quoted at a discount of 250 - 200 RMB/ton to the average SMM 1 lead price for ex - factory sales. With the weak and fluctuating lead price, downstream enterprises maintained rigid - demand procurement, and their willingness to stock up at low prices was poor. The market was filled with a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and overall spot trading was light [2] Inventory - On November 25, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 25, the LME lead inventory was 264,575 tons, an increase of 2,425 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy Overall Strategy - The overall strategy for the lead market is "Neutral" due to the weak supply - demand situation [4] Option Strategy - The option strategy recommended is to sell a wide strangle [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating weakly [3] - Coking Coal: Oscillating weakly [4] - Coke: Oscillating [4] - Thermal Coal: Oscillating strongly [5][6] Core Views - The macro sentiment is optimistic, and steel prices are oscillating. The inventory pressure of finished products has been significantly relieved, but the high inventory of plates still suppresses prices [1]. - The supply - demand disturbances of iron ore continue, and ore prices maintain an oscillation. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and downstream steel mills have triggered production cuts [2]. - The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke is accumulating. Coking coal prices are under pressure in the short term, and coke prices follow coking coal fluctuations [3][4]. - The rigid demand for thermal coal procurement is stable, and coal prices are oscillating strongly. The supply is gradually tightening, but the port market sentiment is weak [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3106 yuan/ton and 3309 yuan/ton respectively. The spot trading volume decreased compared with the previous day, with 10.13 tons of building materials traded nationwide [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure of finished products has been relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved, and the inventory pressure of coils and rebar has been well alleviated. The supply and demand of plates are both strong, but high inventory suppresses prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore rose slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports rose slightly. The cumulative transaction volume of main port iron ore was 97.5 tons, a 13.02% decrease from the previous day. The cumulative transaction volume of forward spot was 165.0 tons, a 73.68% increase [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The iron ore shipment decreased slightly this week, and the port inventory continued to rise. Downstream steel mills have triggered production cuts due to continuous losses, and there is a possibility of further production cuts [2]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be oscillating weakly, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures of coking coal and coke oscillated. The coke market was stable and weak, and the production increased steadily. Some coal mines in the origin of coking coal had production cuts, and the import of Mongolian coal was affected by snow [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of coking coal increased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction gradually accumulated. The cost support of coke weakened, and the market sentiment turned weak [4]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal should be oscillating weakly, and coke should be oscillating. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The coal prices in the main production areas oscillated. The shipments of large stations and power plants were stable, and the procurement of metallurgy and chemical industries was active. The port market sentiment was weak, and the downstream procurement demand was cold. The import coal bid price decreased [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The overall supply is gradually tightening, which supports coal prices. The inventory in coal mines is not high, but the inventory in northern ports has increased rapidly [5]. - **Strategy**: Recently, the wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and coal prices are oscillating [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production schedule has decreased and is near the historical average level. Demand recovery remains at a low level, and cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 8855 - 9065 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production schedule will decrease in the short term and is expected to recover in the medium term. Demand from the silicon wafer, battery cell, and component sectors continues to decline, showing overall demand recession. Cost support has stabilized. The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 53895 - 55565 [8]. - The main logic for the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth. The main bullish factors are rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production. The main bearish factors are the slow post-festival demand recovery and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 4.76% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains persistently weak. The inventory of crystalline silicon is 271,000 tons, at a low level. Silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss-making state, while components are profitable. The inventory of silicone is 56,300 tons, also at a low level. The production profit of silicone is 768 yuan/ton, and its comprehensive operating rate is 72.18%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is 75,200 tons, at a high level. The import loss is 543 yuan/ton, and the freight and profit of A356 aluminum delivered to Wuxi are 672.91 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled aluminum is 60.6%, unchanged from the previous week and at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang is 2,874 yuan/ton. Cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On November 25th, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 390 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 548,000 tons, a 0.37% increase from the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises is 177,800 tons, a 3.01% increase. The inventory of major ports is 129,000 tons, a 1.57% increase [6]. - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's polysilicon production was 27,100 tons, a 1.11% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for November is forecasted to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 12.78GW, a 2.59% decrease from the previous week. Inventory was 187,200 tons, a 1.62% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss-making state. The production schedule for November is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month. In October, battery cell production was 59.27GW, a 2.78% decrease. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 12.05GW, a 18.02% increase. Currently, production is in a loss-making state. The production schedule for November is 58.68GW, a 0.99% decrease. In October, component production was 48.1GW, a 3.60% decrease. The estimated component production for November is 46.92GW, a 2.45% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease. The European monthly inventory is 35.4GW, a 5.35% increase. Currently, component production is profitable [8]. - **Cost**: The average industry cost of N-type polysilicon materials is 38,920 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,080 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On November 25th, the price of N-type dense materials was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -2,480 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 271,000 tons, a 1.49% increase from the previous week, and is at a historical low [8]. - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with an increase in long positions [8]. 2. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The prices of most industrial silicon futures contracts increased slightly. The spot prices of various grades of silicon in East China remained unchanged [15]. - Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased to varying degrees [15]. - The production of some sample enterprises decreased, and the operating rates of some regions remained unchanged [15]. Polysilicon - The prices of most polysilicon futures contracts increased. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly unchanged [17]. - The inventory of silicon wafers and battery cells increased, while the domestic inventory of components decreased, and the European inventory increased [17]. - The production of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased, and the production of components is expected to decrease [17]. 3. Price, Inventory, Production, and Cost Trends Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price and basis trends of industrial silicon show certain fluctuations over time [19]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of industrial silicon in warehouses and ports, as well as the weekly inventory of sample enterprises, shows different trends over time [25]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The production and capacity utilization of industrial silicon in different regions and specifications show different trends over time [28]. - **Cost**: The cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions show different trends over time [35]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The price and basis trends of polysilicon futures show certain fluctuations over time [22]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of polysilicon shows different trends over time [62]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly production and operating rate of polysilicon show different trends over time [62]. - **Cost**: The cost trend of the polysilicon industry shows different trends over time [62]. 4. Supply and Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - The weekly and monthly supply and demand balance of industrial silicon shows different trends over time. There are differences in production, consumption, import, and export volumes [37][40]. Polysilicon - The monthly supply and demand balance of polysilicon shows different trends over time. There are differences in supply, consumption, import, and export volumes [64]. 5. Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The price, production, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products, show different trends over time [43][45]. - The import, export, and inventory trends of DMC show different trends over time [48]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy show different trends over time. The demand from the automotive and wheel hub sectors also shows different trends [51][54][56]. Polysilicon Downstream - The price, production, inventory, and demand trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components show different trends over time [67][70][73]. - The price, production, inventory, and import/export trends of photovoltaic accessories show different trends over time [76]. - The cost, profit, and power generation trends of photovoltaic components show different trends over time [79][80].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年11月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘继续反弹，20均线暂有压力。近期部分产能减产，格林美等货源偏紧。产业链上，镍 矿价格坚挺，海运费小幅上升，印尼2026年RKAB配额预计3.19亿吨，预期供应宽松。镍铁价格继续回落， 跌破900大关支撑，成本线重心再降。不锈钢库存小幅回升，300系小幅回落，需求表现仍不佳。精炼镍 库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货118550，基差2390，偏多 3、库存：LME库存253482，0，上交所仓单33650，-843，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, recent supply reduction is greater than expected, polyester load is firm, and the cancellation of India's BIS boosts export demand. The inventory accumulation expectation has reversed, and there may be phased de - stocking. The spot basis is strong, but the absolute price still follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to the changes in plant operations [5]. - For MEG, the arrival at the main port this week is moderately low, and the port inventory may be slightly compressed early next week. However, there are still plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December, and the reduction in external supply is not obvious. The price has fallen to a two - year low, and attention should be paid to the possibility of production reduction in cracking and ethylene glycol plants. The price is expected to fluctuate within a wide range in the short term [7]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day Review - No information provided in the report. 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, the spot basis was strong, and individual polyester factories made bids. Individual mainstream suppliers sold goods. This week, the negotiation and transaction were around 01 with a discount of 40 - 45, and the price negotiation range was around 4605 - 4655. There were transactions around 01 - 35 to 40 in mid - and late - December. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 43 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4635, the basis of the 01 contract is - 21, and the futures price is at a premium, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.81 days, a decrease of 0.16 days compared with the previous period, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a negative situation [6]. - **Main positions**: The net long position is decreasing, showing a positive tendency [5]. - **Expectation**: The inventory accumulation expectation has reversed, and there may be phased de - stocking. The spot basis is strong, but the absolute price still follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to the changes in plant operations [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the MEG price fluctuated within a wide range, and the market negotiation was average. In the morning, the MEG futures fluctuated strongly, and the spot negotiation and transaction were around a premium of 28 - 31 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. In the afternoon, the MEG futures fluctuated weakly, and the spot basis weakened significantly. Today, the low - end spot basis was traded at a premium of 14 - 15 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, in the morning, the external MEG price was high, and the recent cargo negotiation and transaction were around 464 US dollars/ton. In the afternoon, the external price weakened slightly, and the recent cargo negotiation and transaction were around 461 US dollars/ton. In addition, there was an appropriate amount of Taiwan tender cargo traded around 467, with a cargo volume of 2000 tons [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 3918, the basis of the 01 contract is 45, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 63.5 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons compared with the previous period, which is a negative factor [8]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a negative situation [8]. - **Main positions**: The net short position is increasing, showing a negative tendency [7]. - **Expectation**: The arrival at the main port this week is moderately low, and the port inventory may be slightly compressed early next week. However, there are still plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December, and the reduction in external supply is not obvious. The price has fallen to a two - year low, and attention should be paid to the possibility of production reduction in cracking and ethylene glycol plants. The price is expected to fluctuate within a wide range in the short term [7]. 3. Today's Focus - No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data Price - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased by 9.000 to 584.500 US dollars/ton. The spot price of p - xylene (CFR China Taiwan) decreased by 17.000 to 824 US dollars/ton. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA remained unchanged at 4630 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of domestic MEG decreased by 10.000 to 3900 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of polyester POY decreased by 75.000 to 6550 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D decreased by 50.000 to 6800 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY decreased by 25.000 to 7850 yuan/ton. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber increased by 5.000 to 6295 yuan/ton [13]. - In the futures market, TA01 decreased by 24.000 to 4656 yuan/ton, TA05 decreased by 18.000 to 4706 yuan/ton, TA09 decreased by 18.000 to 4668 yuan/ton. EG01 decreased by 11.000 to 3873 yuan/ton, EG05 decreased by 1.000 to 3961 yuan/ton, EG09 decreased by 12.000 to 4034 yuan/ton [13]. Profit - PTA processing fee decreased by 375.843 to 63.64 yuan/ton. The profit of naphtha - based MEG decreased by 436.380 to - 1576.24 yuan/ton. The profit of externally - purchased ethylene - based MEG decreased by 310.478 to - 1302.75 yuan/ton. The profit of methanol - based MEG increased by 46.580 to - 1131.28 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - based MEG decreased by 16.500 to - 894.00 yuan/ton [13]. - The profit of POY decreased by 89.580 to 74.55 yuan/ton, the profit of FDY decreased by 64.580 to - 25.45 yuan/ton, the profit of DTY increased by 50.000 to 100.00 yuan/ton, and the profit of polyester staple fiber decreased by 9.580 to - 180.46 yuan/ton [13]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - **MEG Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the data of MEG production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, export, total demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12].

Group 1 - COMEX silver futures increased by 1.35%, reaching $51.005 per ounce [1] - COMEX copper futures rose by 1.07%, priced at $50.205 per pound [1] - At 21:24 Beijing time, copper futures peaked at $5.1050 [1]