西部证券发布2024 年年报。剔除其他业务收入后营业总收入：42 亿元，同比+10.5%，单季度为16 亿 元，环比+10.4 亿元。 事项： 点评： ROE 环比同比提升明显。公司报告期内ROE 为4.9%，同比+0.7pct。单季度ROE 为2.3%，环比+2.1pct， 同比+1.3pct，杜邦拆分来看： 归母净利润：14 亿元，同比+20.4%，单季度为6.7 亿元，环比+6 亿元，同比+3.8 亿元。 1）公司报告期末财务杠杆倍数（总资产剔除客户资金）为：2.5 倍，同比-0.43倍，环比-0.2 倍。 2）公司报告期内资产周转率（总资产剔除客户资金，总营收剔除其他业务收入后）为5.8%，同比 +1.2pct，单季度资产周转率为2.2%，环比+1.5pct，同比+1.2pct。 3）公司报告期内净利润率为33.4%，同比+2.7pct，单季度净利润率为42.3%，环比+28.8pct，同比 +7.2pct。 资产负债表看，剔除客户资金后公司总资产为720 亿元，同比-98.9 亿元，净资产：288 亿元，同比+8.7 亿元。杠杆倍数为2.5 倍，同比-0.43 倍。 公司计息负债余额为370 亿元， ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Industrial Securities for the year 2024 shows a positive trend with significant growth in total revenue and net profit, indicating a stable operational environment and potential for future growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total operating revenue (excluding other business income) reached 9.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, with a quarterly revenue of 3.2 billion RMB, up by 6.9% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.16 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, with a quarterly net profit of 840 million RMB, up by 4.7% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Return on Equity (ROE) - The overall ROE for the reporting period was 3.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The quarterly ROE was 1.5%, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.8 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points [4]. Financial Ratios - The financial leverage ratio (total assets excluding client funds) was 3.85 times, up by 0.17 times year-on-year and 0.2 times quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The asset turnover ratio was 4.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly asset turnover ratio of 1.4%, up by 0.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The net profit margin was 22.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the quarterly net profit margin was 26.7%, up by 11.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Business Segments - Proprietary business revenue for the quarter was 11.6 billion RMB, down by 1.6 billion RMB quarter-on-quarter, with a net yield of 2.2% [5]. - The brokerage business saw significant growth, with revenue of 21.3 billion RMB, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 111.8% and a year-on-year increase of 70% [6]. - Investment banking revenue was 7 billion RMB, with a quarterly revenue of 2.6 billion RMB, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.8 billion RMB [6]. Asset Management and Regulatory Metrics - Asset management revenue was stable at 1.6 billion RMB, with a quarterly revenue of 0.4 billion RMB, remaining flat both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year [7]. - The risk coverage ratio was 272.9%, down by 48.1 percentage points from the previous period, with risk capital reserves at 14.1 billion RMB, an increase of 29.9% [7]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and growth in asset management business, with projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 0.27, 0.29, and 0.32 RMB respectively [9]. - The target price is set at 6.79 RMB, with a recommendation to maintain a "buy" rating based on historical valuation and current business conditions [9].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the importance of cultivating new productive forces and developing emerging pillar industries to enhance economic stability and growth [1] Economic Performance Highlights - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with industrial added value increasing by 6.5% and high-tech manufacturing added value rising by 9.7% [1] - The digital economy and productive service industries are accelerating growth, indicating a shift towards high-tech and high-value exports, with a 6.9% increase in exports and a 4.6% rise in retail sales [2] Policy Support for New Productive Forces - Central government fiscal allocations for manufacturing reached 11.878 billion yuan, a 14.5% increase, with expanded loan scales for technological innovation [2] - The development of new productive forces is supported by policies that encourage digital transformation, green upgrades, and service extensions in traditional industries [3] Empowering Traditional Industries - The manufacturing sector remains a core engine of economic growth, with digital transformation and green modifications being key areas of focus [3] - The industrial internet platform's penetration is expected to reach 45% by 2025, with significant advancements in digital tools and automation in traditional manufacturing [3] Resilience Against External Pressures - Breakthroughs in key technologies in sectors like renewable energy enhance the resilience of supply chains against external shocks [4] - The development of new productive forces is crucial for maintaining economic stability amid increasing geopolitical risks [4] Role of Securities Companies - Securities companies play a vital role in financing, mergers and acquisitions, and research services to support the development of new productive forces and the transformation of traditional industries [5] - Future strategies include establishing industry funds, exploring intellectual property securitization, and enhancing cross-border services for Chinese tech firms [6] Supporting Traditional Industry Upgrades - Securities companies can promote green finance, innovate supply chain finance, and enhance digital services to facilitate the transition of traditional industries [6] - Effective market management and compliance in mergers and acquisitions are essential for achieving high-quality development in traditional sectors [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 6.79 RMB [1][9]. Core Views - The company's return on equity (ROE) has shown improvement, with a reported ROE of 3.7%, up by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company's total assets, excluding client funds, reached 222.4 billion RMB, an increase of 14.9 billion RMB year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights a significant increase in brokerage business revenue, which rose to 21.3 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 70% [8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's total revenue, excluding other business income, was 9.8 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.16 billion RMB, up 10.2% year-on-year [7]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 22.1%, with a quarterly net profit margin of 26.7%, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.4% [1]. Business Segment Performance - The self-operated business generated a total revenue of 4.24 billion RMB, with a quarterly revenue of 1.16 billion RMB, reflecting a decline of 1.6 billion RMB quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The credit business generated interest income of 5.01 billion RMB, with a quarterly income of 1.47 billion RMB, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase of 311 million RMB [2]. - The investment banking business saw a revenue of 700 million RMB, with a quarterly revenue of 260 million RMB, indicating a quarter-on-quarter increase of 80 million RMB [8].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 韩港（微信 HGK1366） 核心观点 本文从行业协会视角出发，观察 20 大中观行业的现状与未来趋势。 1 ）当前供需失衡、需求不足等问题仍然存在。 2 ）但边际上，已出现一定积极迹象， 表现为：企业正通过调整改造、并购重组等方式重构行业格局（例 如百货行业）；在总量偏弱背景下不乏结构性亮点（例如珠宝消费承压，但黄金高增）； 3 ）往后看，关注四个趋势： 通过供改改善行业环境（如光伏 / 钢铁 / 石化 / 水泥等 ）；新的增长极正在 形成（ AI/ 软件 / 演出等）； AI 助力降本提效（如餐饮 / 珠宝 / 百货等）；深耕细分领域（服装 / 珠宝 / 白酒等）。 报告摘要 一、供需失衡等症结仍存 1 ）供求失衡问题，主要集中在周期、制造业领域 ，例如： a ）石化，"面临深度调整的阵痛期"； b ）钢 铁，需求自 2020 年连续 4 年下滑，且"新的供需动态平衡机制尚未建立"； c ）水泥，"水泥市场饱和度较 高"，在需求下滑的背景下， 内卷式竞争加剧； d ） ...

最近互联网圈的关键词动辄就是千亿，比如电商巨头拼多多，年利润刚刚破了千亿，紧接着又发布了个 刷屏的"千亿扶持"项目。 而且收入增速似乎无法满足市场对拼多多的预期，常有业绩良好股价暴跌到底情况。 ▲图源：百度股市通 业绩和股价的此消彼长下，拼多多的市盈率已经来到了10倍以下。——这通常是一家完全不会增长的企 业的估值。相当于，市场对TEMU的估值为零，还预期拼多多的国内电商也会出现停滞甚至衰退。 再看净利润指标的话，拼多多增速放缓的迹象则更加明显。2022年-2024年，拼多多归属于普通股股东 的净利润增速分别为305.96%、90.33%、87.31%，数字一目了然。 在费用支出方面，本季营销费用支出314亿，同比增长18%。从同比增幅看，相比上几个季度40%以上 的增速，是有明显放缓的。但相比市场隐含的预期，稍稍多出十几亿。 支出的部分主要用于国内"国补"推广及Temu海外营销。 百亿"补"需求，千亿"补"供给，高增长神话能"补"回来吗？ 01 告别狂飙时代 2024年，拼多多依旧增长迅猛。据其最新财报，公司全年实现收入3938亿元，同比增长59%，远超同期 阿里8%和京东13.8%的营收增速；非美国会计准 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 17.42 [6][4]. Core Views - The steel industry shows slight improvement in profitability, with the company reporting a year-on-year revenue decrease of 5.59% but a net profit increase of 1.76% in Q1 2025 [1][2]. - The decline in raw material prices, including hot-rolled coil, iron ore, and coking coal, has been greater than the revenue decline, which supports profit recovery for the company [2]. - The government is taking measures to control steel production to prevent excessive competition, indicating a potential for supply-side optimization in the industry [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 26.84 billion, a decrease of 5.59% year-on-year, but an increase of 4.44% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.384 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.76% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.31% [1]. - The gross profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 3.71 billion, up by RMB 211 million year-on-year, while operating expenses were approximately RMB 2.034 billion, slightly lower than the previous year [2]. Industry Outlook - In 2024, China's crude steel production was 1.005 billion tons, with apparent consumption at 892 million tons, indicating a significant oversupply in the market. The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was only 53.7% as of March 2025 [3]. - The report highlights a substantial opportunity for domestic substitution in the special steel sector, with 255,500 tons of special steel imported in 2024, valued at USD 5.248 billion, suggesting a strong growth potential for the domestic special steel market [3]. Valuation Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is RMB 1.14, with projected PE ratios of 15.3X for the company compared to a sector average of 12.7X [4][11]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately RMB 59 billion, with a closing price of RMB 11.69 as of April 18, 2025 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2% [1]. - The company plans to focus on optimizing operations, reducing debt, and enhancing shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio of 45% and a total dividend amount of 3.2 billion in 2024 [3]. - The supply-side reforms in the industry are expected to support a recovery at the bottom of the cycle, with a significant decrease in the operating rate of Shandong independent refineries [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to generate operating revenue of 236.4 billion, a slight increase of 0.65% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 7 billion, up 2% year-on-year [1][5]. - The average selling prices for refined products, PTA, and new materials are expected to decline, with a decrease of 2.3%, 2.4%, and 11.2% respectively [2]. - The company’s capital expenditure peak is expected to end in the second half of 2024, allowing for a shift in focus towards cost control and shareholder returns [3]. Industry Insights - The oil product market has seen increased regulatory scrutiny, which is expected to enhance the market's standardization and support price recovery [4]. - The anticipated reduction in crude oil and coal prices entering 2025 is expected to benefit the refining sector significantly [2]. - The increase in tariffs on propane may lead to improved price differentials for olefins, benefiting the company's naphtha-based olefin production [4].

消息面上，4月13日，中国人民银行发布了主要金融数据，首季社会融资规模增量超15万亿元、新增贷 款9.78万亿元、3月末广义货币M2余额同比增长7%。数据展现着金融对实体经济保持稳固支持，也折射 出实体经济需求持续回暖。此外，一季度全国工程机械平均开工率为44.67%，较去年同期增幅为 1.62%，折射出一季度中国经济平稳起步。 4月14日，A股市场主要指数高开后午后有所回落，大盘蓝筹风格整体走势平稳，A500和A50指数通过 行业均衡配置和聚焦优质龙头，契合资金关注主线。 相关产品：A500ETF（159339）、A50ETF基金（159592） MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ A股核心资产代表，"A股的标普500"：A500ETF（159339）跟踪的A500指数以不足A股市场10%的成份 股数量，覆盖全市场63%的总营收和70%的总净利润，或是大家长期布局我国资本市场高质量发展趋势 的有力工具。 各行业超级龙头，"漂亮50"：A50ETF基金（159592）跟踪的A50指数布局各行业超大市值龙头股，这 些绩优大白马在供给侧改革的趋势下受益于市场集中度提升，在业绩披露期或更受资金青睐。 华泰证券认 ...

Inflation Data - March CPI year-on-year growth rate was -0.1%, slightly better than the previous value of -0.7% and in line with market expectations[2] - March PPI year-on-year growth rate recorded at -2.5%, slightly lower than the previous value of -2.2%[2] Price Movements - Food prices decreased by 1.4% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.24 percentage points to the CPI decline[4] - The price of wearable smart devices increased by 4.6% year-on-year, driven by advancements in high-tech industries[2] Core CPI Insights - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.5% year-on-year in March, reversing from a decline of 0.1% in February[8] - Service prices increased by 0.3% year-on-year in March, contributing positively to the CPI[8] Commodity Prices - March Brent crude oil average price was $72.51 per barrel, down by $2.81 from the previous month[7] - Domestic gasoline prices decreased by 3.5% month-on-month, impacting CPI by approximately 0.12 percentage points[7] Economic Outlook - The government aims for a CPI increase of around 2% for 2025, indicating a shift towards balancing supply and demand rather than strict inflation control[8] - The report suggests that effective demand recovery has significant potential, with the economy still in the early stages of inflation bottoming out[2]