固定收益 | 固定收益点评 迎接"超级央行周" 证券研究报告 海外跟踪周报 20251026 海外市场复盘（10.20-10.24） 海外权益，欧美股市普遍上涨。周一，随着贸易形势缓和，美股上涨；周 三，由于贸易紧张局势再度升温，美股三大指数收跌，大型科技股多数收 跌；周四周五，受科技股走强带动，以及 9 月 CPI 通胀数据低于预期令市 场对降息路径的信心增强，提振美股三大指数上涨、齐创新高。 外汇方面，本周美元小幅收涨。周一周二，市场对贸易协议乐观的情绪提 振美元上涨；周三回调，周四五继续上行。 利率方面，10Y 美债收益率本周收平。本周美债收益率窄幅波动。周五， 美国 CPI 低于预期，美债收益率一度大幅下行，此后受超预期的 Markit PMI 数据推动，收益率回升。 商品方面，黄金大跌、原油大涨。本周一，黄金延续上周的强势涨势，而 周二，黄金跌超过 5%，投资者因担心近期历史性的上涨令其估值过高而锁 定利润。周四黄金小幅回升，但周五再次下跌。本周原油大涨，主因美国 宣布制裁俄罗斯两大石油企业、以及特朗普重申印度将停止购买俄罗斯石 油。 海外央行动态 本周是 FOMC 会议之前的"噤声期"，美联储官员 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the metals and new materials industry, particularly highlighting quality targets in gold and copper [3][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rising expectations for interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to elevate valuation levels across the sector. It recommends focusing on stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector [3][4]. - The report notes significant price movements in various metals, with copper prices expected to rise due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like AI data centers and electric grid investments [4][9]. Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.88%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 4.73%. The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.11 percentage points [5][7]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 71.51%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 53.06 percentage points [5][8]. Price Changes - Industrial metals saw varied price changes, with copper up by 2.20% and aluminum up by 7.61%. Precious metals, however, experienced a decline, with gold prices down by 3.30% [4][9]. - Lithium prices have shown significant increases, with battery-grade lithium carbonate up by 5.37% and lithium hexafluorophosphate up by 23.33% [4][9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights that copper supply is expected to face disruptions due to incidents affecting major mines, which could lead to a 2.2% reduction in global copper supply in the near term [4][9]. - The demand for copper remains robust, with operating rates for electrolytic copper rods and wire and cable production at 61.6% and 62.3%, respectively [4][24]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Zijin Mining, China Aluminum, and Shandong Gold, among others [4][17]. - For aluminum, companies like China Hongqiao and Tianshan Aluminum are highlighted due to their integrated operations and cost improvements [4][17]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the sector, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and price-to-book (PB) ratios, suggesting potential investment opportunities based on current valuations [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Views - The lithium industry has passed its darkest moment, with a clear trend of improvement in supply and demand fundamentals. Domestic demand for power steadily increases, coupled with strong energy storage demand, leading to a significant upward revision of terminal growth rates for 2026. The industrialization process of solid-state batteries further strengthens the medium to long-term industry outlook [5][3] - In the precious metals sector, gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations due to various factors, including easing silver market pressures and expectations of a de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, this does not change the trend of increasing allocation to gold stocks. The current price movements are seen as fluctuations rather than a trend reversal [3][4] - Industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are viewed positively as supply bottlenecks are gradually alleviated. The report highlights the impact of improved trade relations between China and the US, as well as the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting commodity prices [4][5] Summary by Sections Lithium Industry - The darkest period for the lithium sector is over, with improving supply-demand fundamentals. Domestic power demand is growing steadily, and energy storage demand remains strong. The terminal growth rate for 2026 has been significantly revised upward, and the industrialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating, enhancing long-term industry expectations. Supply-side uncertainties in overseas resource development and weak profitability due to low lithium prices have peaked capital expenditures in the industry by 2024-2025. Although there will still be some capacity release in 2026, supply growth is expected to decline from 2026 to 2028 [5][3] Precious Metals - The report notes that gold prices have seen significant fluctuations recently, driven by easing pressures in the silver market and expectations of a de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Despite these fluctuations, the trend of increasing allocation to gold stocks remains intact. The report emphasizes that the current price movements are more about valuation adjustments rather than a definitive trend reversal [3][4] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are expected to perform well as supply bottlenecks are gradually resolved. The easing of trade tensions between China and the US, along with geopolitical developments, has contributed to a positive outlook for these metals. The report highlights that copper and aluminum inventories have improved, and the overall macroeconomic environment is becoming more favorable for industrial metals [4][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current probability of further interest rate cuts is low, and even if a cut occurs, its downward push on interest rates will be limited. It is recommended to approach the bond market with a volatile mindset and be cautious about chasing up [1][16][17] - After the release of inflation data lower than market expectations, the market generally believes that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates next week. However, inflation risks are rising, and the market has overlooked the possibility of an inflation rebound [4][19][26] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Viewpoints Q1: Impact of "double - cut" expectations on the bond market - This week (2025.10.20 - 2025.10.24), the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond rose 3.5bp from 1.745% last Friday to 1.78% [1][12] - Throughout the week, the bond market traded around trade - war news and expectations of further monetary policy easing. The trade - war was highly affected by external factors, while the expectation of monetary policy easing was triggered by news of small and medium - sized banks lowering deposit rates and weak economic data [16] Q2: Future changes in US Treasury yields after the release of a series of US economic data - This week (10.20 - 10.24), the short - and long - term US Treasury yields slightly recovered from the previous downward trend. US stocks rose, and the gold price dropped significantly. The overseas market's risk - aversion sentiment declined marginally [2][19] - In September, the US CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, falling short of market expectations across the board. The US Markit PMI in October reached the second - highest level this year, exceeding expectations. The September CPI data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the market expects two more cuts this year [4][19][22] 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - From 2025/10/20 to 2025/10/24, the total net injection in the open - market operations was 781 billion yuan [30] 2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - The total transaction area of commercial housing generally increased. Steel prices showed mixed trends, and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices all rose [56][58] - Compared with half a month ago, both short - and long - term US Treasury yields declined. The term spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds decreased, while that between the 10 - year and 3 - month US Treasury bonds increased [75][76][79] 3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 79 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 247.228 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 80.51 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 165.751 billion yuan. The main investment directions were comprehensive, urban and rural infrastructure construction, and shantytown renovation [86] 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - This week, the stock of local government bonds was 53.64 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 33.994 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.63%. The top three provinces with the most actively traded local government bonds were Guizhou, Guangdong, and Shandong [102] 3.3 This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan - No detailed content provided other than the plan exists 4. One - Week Review of Credit Bonds 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 527 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance of 468.291 billion yuan, a total repayment of 335.832 billion yuan, and a net financing of 132.459 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.204 billion yuan compared with last week [107] 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds decreased by 0.73bp, medium - term notes increased by 3.91bp, enterprise bonds increased by 47.45bp, and corporate bonds decreased by 7.76bp [119] 4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - This week, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 360.658 billion yuan [120] 4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all decreased [123][124][126] 4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes narrowed comprehensively, those of enterprise bonds generally narrowed, and those of urban investment bonds narrowed comprehensively [128][132][134] 4.6 Rating Spreads - The rating spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes generally narrowed, those of enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, and those of urban investment bonds generally narrowed [136][139][144] 4.7 Trading Activity - This week, the top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type are listed in the report, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, reaching 226.81 billion yuan [149][150] 4.8 Issuer Credit Rating Changes - There were no bonds with upgraded ratings or outlooks this week [151]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metals and new materials industry, highlighting quality targets in gold and copper [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rising expectations for interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to support the prices of precious metals and industrial metals. It suggests that the central bank's gold purchases will be a long-term trend, leading to a sustained upward movement in gold prices [3][21]. - The report identifies specific companies to watch, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shandong Gold, and others, based on their potential for recovery and growth in the current market environment [3][18]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 4.73%. The non-ferrous metals index rose by 1.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.11 percentage points [4][3]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 71.51%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 53.06 percentage points [7][4]. Price Changes and Industry Key Companies Valuation - Industrial metals prices saw increases: copper prices rose by 3.38%, aluminum by 2.93%, and zinc by 3.14% week-on-week. In contrast, precious metals like gold and silver saw declines of 3.30% and 4.38%, respectively [13][14]. - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the industry, indicating their stock prices, earnings per share (EPS), and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold highlighted for their strong performance [18][19]. Precious Metals - The report notes an increase in gold ETF holdings, with a total of 1,531 tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week. The report also highlights the increasing confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties [21][22]. - The gold-silver ratio is reported at 85.5, indicating the relative pricing dynamics between these two precious metals [22]. Copper Market Analysis - The report details the supply and demand dynamics for copper, noting a decrease in the copper treatment charge (TC) to $42.6 per dry ton, alongside an increase in domestic social inventory to 182,000 tons [27][16]. - The report highlights the operational rates for copper products, with the electrolytic copper rod and wire and cable operating rates at 61.6% and 62.3%, respectively [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Inflation is lower than expected, and the trading of overseas interest rate cut expectations continues. The lower-than-expected CPI further strengthens the market's expectation of an interest rate cut next week, but the growth of non-sticky CPI also prompts the market to readjust its expectation of an interest rate cut in December [3][12]. - The overall performance of major overseas markets shows different trends. US Treasury yields generally decline over time as the FOMC meeting approaches, Japanese government bonds rise slightly overall, and German government bond yields have the largest single - week increase in six weeks [3][4][19]. - Global major stock markets generally strengthen, energy in commodities leads the rise while precious metals fall from high levels, and the US dollar is stable while non - US currencies are generally under pressure [5][20][21]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Overseas Macroeconomic and Interest Rate Review 1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Comments - **Inflation**: In September, the CPI data was lower than expected. The unadjusted CPI year - on - year was 3.0%, lower than the forecast of 3.1% and higher than the previous value of 2.9%; the core CPI year - on - year was 3.0%, lower than the forecast of 3.1% and the previous value of 3.1%. The market responded positively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 47,000 for the first time, rising 472 points or 1%. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 also reached new highs, providing room for an interest rate cut [1][10]. - **Real Estate**: In September, the annualized total of existing home sales in the US reached a seven - month high, with 4.06 million units, in line with the forecast. Although the decline in mortgage rates may boost home sales, affordability remains a challenge for many potential homebuyers, especially low - and middle - income families, due to unclear economic prospects and reduced employer recruitment under the background of import tariffs [1][10]. - **Business Index**: As of the week of October 17, US crude oil inventories decreased due to strong refining demand. The EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 961,000 barrels, significantly lower than the expected increase of 2.2 million barrels and the previous value of 3.524 million barrels. Affected by factors such as increased US sanctions on Russia and rising refining demand, crude oil prices soared. The October Markit manufacturing (preliminary) and services PMI (preliminary) were both higher than expected and previous values, with the new order flow growth rate reaching a new high this year. However, due to factors such as tariff concerns, weak export demand, and increased unsold inventory, business confidence has fallen to a three - year low [2][11]. 1.2 Review of Major Overseas Market Interest Rates - **US**: This week (October 17 - 24, 2025), the yields of US Treasury bonds showed different changes. The overall yield of US Treasury bonds declined as the FOMC meeting approached. Before the release of inflation data, the 10 - year yield rose, and after the CPI was lower than expected, the yield fell and fluctuated around 4.0%. The lower - than - expected CPI strengthens the market's expectation of an interest rate cut next week, but also makes the market readjust its expectation of an interest rate cut in December. As of now, the proportion of the expected target interest rate in December remaining at 375 - 400 has increased from 0% to 8.77%. The price data also reflects the inflation dilemma, and corporate profits continue to be under pressure, making it difficult to reverse the low - growth situation of price growth by the end of the year [3][12][13]. - **Auction**: On October 22, a $13 billion 20 - year US Treasury bond auction was held. The winning bid rate was 4.506%, the bid - to - cover ratio was 2.73 times, basically the same as the previous value. The tail spread was - 1.150, lower than the previous value. Indirects were allocated 63.6%, Directs 26.3%, and Primary 10.0% [4][14]. - **Europe and Japan**: Japanese government bond yields rose slightly overall this week, with short - and medium - term yields generally rising and ultra - long - term yields (15 - year and 20 - year) slightly falling. German government bond yields had the largest single - week increase in six weeks [4][19]. 2. Comments on Other Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: Global major stock markets generally strengthened. South Korea's KOSPI led the rise with + 5.14%, followed by the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index with a 3.62% rebound, the Japanese Nikkei 225 with a 3.61% increase, the UK FTSE 100 with a 3.11% increase, the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index with a 2.88% increase, the US Nasdaq with a 2.31% increase, the German DAX with a 1.72% increase, the French CAC40 with a 0.63% increase, and India's Sensex with a 0.31% increase. Vietnam's VN30 fell 1.65%, and Russia's MOEX had a - 6.49% decline [5][20]. - **Commodities**: Energy led the rise, while precious metals fell from high levels. Brent crude oil rose 7.59%, coking coal 5.58%, coke 4.74%, Bitcoin 4.29%, US live hogs 2.84%, LME copper 2.65%, LME aluminum 2.28%, CBOT soybeans 2.18%, CBOT wheat 1.74%, CBOT corn 0.18%, soda ash 1.82%, Zhengzhou cotton 1.61%, and rebar 0.43%. London gold fell 2.85% and London silver fell 11.27% [5][21]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar was stable, and non - US currencies were generally under pressure. The Indian rupee rose 0.22%, the Vietnamese dong appreciated 0.04%, the US dollar against the Chinese yuan rose slightly by 0.02%, the Hong Kong dollar fell 0.04%, the euro fell 0.84%, the Swiss franc fell 0.85%, the British pound fell 1.00%, the South Korean won fell 1.03%, the Russian ruble fell 1.52%, and the Japanese yen fell 1.63% [5][22][23]. 3. Market Tracking - The report provides multiple charts to show the changes in various indicators this week, including the yield changes of major economies' government bonds, the rise and fall of major global stock indices, the rise and fall of major commodities, the rise and fall of major global foreign exchange rates, and the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the eurozone [28][32][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Recent US Treasury yields have declined overall, with the "safe-haven + rate cut expectation" resonance strengthening. The core factors driving the rise of US Treasuries are the expectation of looser monetary policy, including Powell's public signal of rate cuts, mild CPI in September, and the decline in housing and oil prices weakening medium - and long - term inflation pressures. Additionally, the deterioration of regional bank loan quality and government shutdown concerns have enhanced the safe - haven property of US Treasuries [1][6]. - Fiscal and supply pressures have eased, and the ultra - long end is relatively favored. The allocation force is concentrating on the long end, and the long - end supply pressure is expected to weaken, further supporting long - end prices. In the short term, US Treasuries are supported by the rate cut path and falling inflation, but there may be fluctuations. In the medium term, US Treasuries still have allocation value and are likely to enter a pattern of low - level oscillation [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US Treasury Interest Rates - As of October 24, the 10 - year US Treasury yield has dropped by 12bp in two weeks to 4.02%. The 2 - year yield has also dropped by 12bp, and the 30 - year yield by 13bp compared to two weeks ago [2]. 2. US Treasury Market - In terms of actual bond issuance in early October, the issuance duration of US Treasuries has slightly increased, with 57.84 billion for 3 - year, 38.92 billion for 10 - year, and 21.96 billion for 30 - year. The US fiscal deficit in December is 86.7 billion US dollars, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit has slightly declined to 2.03 trillion US dollars [2]. 3. Derivatives Market - The net short position in US Treasury futures has slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers have dropped to 5.738 million lots. Meanwhile, the federal funds rate futures market remains in a net short position, rising to 395,400 lots [2]. 4. Liquidity and US Economy - **Monetary Policy**: On September 18, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut in nine months this year. The Fed has shown increased concern about the labor market [3]. - **Fiscal Policy**: As of October 22, the US Treasury TGA deposit balance has increased by 111.02 billion US dollars in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool has shrunk by 1.415 billion US dollars in two weeks, with overall liquidity remaining relatively abundant [3]. - **Economic Situation**: As of October 18, the Fed's weekly economic indicator is 2.16 (2.44 two weeks ago), indicating that the economy has deteriorated after a short - term stabilization [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core View of the Report - The US economy still shows some resilience, with inflation generally under control and the market fully pricing in expectations of a 25bp rate cut in the October meeting and two more rate cuts within the year. The Fed's stance on the pace of balance sheet reduction in the October meeting needs attention. The impact of the government shutdown is expected to be reflected in November data, and tariff issues also pressure business confidence. The short - term trend of the US dollar is oscillatory, while gold is weak in the short - term but the long - term bullish market expectation remains unchanged. Brent crude oil prices have risen due to supply - side concerns [2][11][32] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite rebounded, most stock markets rose, most bond yields increased, and the US Treasury yield slightly dropped to 4%. The US dollar index rose 0.5% to 98.9, most non - US currencies depreciated, the offshore RMB slightly rose 0.1%, the euro fell 0.23%, the pound fell 0.87%, the yen fell 1.49%, the Swiss franc fell 0.3%, the Korean won fell 1.2%, the Thai baht, peso, and rupee closed down, while the New Zealand dollar, rand, real, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar closed up. Gold prices fell 3.3% to $4113 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 16.37, the spot commodity index closed down, and Brent crude oil soared 9% to $66.5 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose. The S&P 500 index rose 1.92%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 3.62%, and the Nikkei 225 index rose 3.61%. The US government shutdown has affected the economy and employment, and the release of economic data. The September CPI data was slightly lower than expected. The US manufacturing and service PMI rebounded in October, but manufacturing employment continued to decline. The eurozone's manufacturing and service PMI also rebounded. China's Q3 GDP growth slowed to 4.8%, and the domestic stock market continued to fluctuate [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rebounded, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield slightly dropped to 4%. Due to the government shutdown and lower - than - expected CPI, the US Treasury yield oscillated at a low level with limited downside. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield rebounded to 1.85%, the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted slightly decreased to 215bp, and the domestic bond market fell again [13][17][20] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.5% to 98.9, and most non - US currencies depreciated [25][27][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold fell 3.3% to $4113 per ounce, with short - term weakness but unchanged long - term bullish expectations. The VIX index dropped to 16.37. Brent crude oil soared 9% to $66.4 per barrel due to supply - side concerns, and the industrial products were weak, with the commodity spot index closing down [29][31][32] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US September CPI was lower than expected, which confirmed the expectation of two rate cuts by the Fed in 2025, boosting market risk appetite. The short - term possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is low, and the outcome of the Sino - US trade negotiation is expected to maintain the status quo [33][34][35] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: Sino - US trade negotiation, US President's visit to Japan; Tuesday: US August housing price index, October Conference Board consumer confidence; Wednesday: Bank of Canada interest rate meeting resolution; Thursday: Fed interest rate meeting resolution, Bank of Japan interest rate meeting resolution, European Central Bank interest rate meeting resolution, US Q3 GDP; Friday: China's October manufacturing PMI, Eurozone's October CPI [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that industrial metal prices are expected to remain strong due to seasonal demand and supply disruptions, particularly for copper and aluminum [2][3]. - Energy metals like lithium and cobalt are projected to perform well, driven by strong demand in the energy storage market and supply constraints [3]. - Precious metals are anticipated to experience price fluctuations in the short term, but long-term trends remain bullish due to central bank gold purchases and weakening dollar credit [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by macroeconomic sentiment and supply disruptions, with the SMM import copper concentrate index at $51.2/ton, down $0.6/ton month-on-month [2]. - Aluminum demand is robust, particularly from the automotive sector, with domestic aluminum ingot social inventory at approximately 618,000 tons, down 9,000 tons week-on-week [2]. - Key companies recommended include Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium supply is increasing due to new production lines, while demand from the energy storage market is exceeding expectations, supporting strong prices [3]. - Cobalt prices are rising due to supply concerns from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with Chinese companies receiving fewer export quotas than expected [3]. - Recommended companies include Huayou Cobalt and Yichun Lithium [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are experiencing short-term volatility due to optimistic international conditions, but long-term outlook remains positive with central bank purchases [4]. - Silver prices are influenced by industrial demand and follow gold's price movements [4]. - Recommended companies include Western Gold and Shandong Gold [4].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The report highlights that macro disturbances continue to support the upward trend in base metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum, while precious metals are experiencing mixed price movements due to fluctuating trade sentiments [2][3][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have risen, with the Shanghai copper closing at 87,660 CNY/ton, driven by macroeconomic factors such as a weak dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts [2][10]. - Aluminum prices have also increased, with the Shanghai aluminum closing at 21,245 CNY/ton, supported by stable production capacity and reduced inventories [2][17]. - Gold prices averaged 965.68 CNY/gram, up 3.65% week-on-week, while silver prices averaged 11,708 CNY/kg, down 0.56% [3][20]. 2. Small Metals - Tungsten prices have increased, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 283,000 CNY/ton, up 13,000 CNY/ton from the previous week, driven by strong demand and rising production costs [4][48]. - Lithium prices are experiencing a stable upward trend, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices averaging 75,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a robust supply-demand balance [34][35]. - Cobalt prices have strengthened, with electrolytic cobalt prices reaching 403,000-415,000 CNY/ton, supported by tight supply conditions [37][39]. 3. Market Trends - The report indicates that the copper market is at a crossroads between macro expectations and fundamental realities, with supply constraints and demand weaknesses influencing price movements [2][14]. - The aluminum market is expected to see price fluctuations between 20,700-21,400 CNY/ton, influenced by reduced overseas supply and domestic inventory trends [18]. - Precious metals are anticipated to enter a phase of adjustment, with gold and silver prices expected to fluctuate within specified ranges due to changing geopolitical sentiments and economic indicators [21][22].