1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Copper - After the interest rate cut and tariff implementation, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next macro nodes are the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. The copper supply shortage supports the price, and downstream demand has strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center, but short - term sharp increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the 86000 - 86500 support level [2]. Aluminum - In October, the alumina futures price was under pressure, and it is expected to remain weakly volatile in November. The electrolytic aluminum market was strong in October, and it is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern in November with limited upside potential. Although high aluminum prices have inhibited some consumption and exports, the overall macro environment is positive [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In October, the cast aluminum alloy futures followed the aluminum price and was strong. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the peak season but with a mediocre performance. It is expected that the ADC12 price will remain strongly volatile in November, with an operating range of 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is gradually shifting from the zinc ore end to the zinc ingot end. The smelting profit is compressed, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited. The demand is not outstanding, but the low overseas inventory may cause a short squeeze on LME zinc, supporting the price. The zinc price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term and may remain range - bound [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut, the tin price may decline in the short - term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The future trend depends on the macro situation and the supply recovery in Myanmar [13]. Nickel - The nickel futures market fluctuates within a range. The production of refined nickel is high, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is volatile, with supply pressure and insufficient demand improvement. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of ferronickel is under pressure. The supply of 300 - series stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to adjust in the short - term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures were strong last week, but there was news of potential supply increases, which affected the market sentiment. The fundamentals are currently strong, with a slight decrease in production and an improvement in demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in November, with a reference range of 78000 - 87000 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 87570 yuan/ton, down 0.56% from the previous day. The electrolytic copper production in October was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month [2]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of electrolytic copper in September was 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month. The inventory of various types showed different changes, such as SHFE inventory increasing by 10.83% week - on - week [2]. Aluminum Price and Spreads - SMM A00 aluminum price was 21280 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The alumina production in October was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [4]. Fundamental Data - The electrolytic aluminum production in October was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month. The full - scale market inventory of alumina increased by 31.27 million tons to 437.55 million tons as of October 30 [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spreads - SMM Southwest ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in September was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots in September was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased [5]. Zinc Price and Spreads - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22280 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day. The refined zinc production in October was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85% month - on - month [11]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of refined zinc in September was 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month. The LME inventory increased by 1.15% [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 284400 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day. The domestic tin ore import in September decreased by 15.13% month - on - month [13]. Fundamental Data - The SMM refined tin production in September was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month. The inventory of SHEF increased by 2.65% week - on - week [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121950 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day. The production of Chinese refined nickel increased by 1.26% month - on - month [14]. Supply and Inventory - The SHFE inventory increased by 1.87% week - on - week, and the social inventory decreased by 1.43% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 0.99% month - on - month [17]. Fundamental Data - The stainless steel import volume increased by 2.70% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 80220 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in October was 92260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month [20]. Fundamental Data - The lithium carbonate demand in September was 116801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.38% [20].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The steel market sentiment trading has temporarily ended, and the focus will return to the industrial supply side [2]. - For steel, the long - term industrial logic is a gradual decline in steel production. In the early stage of production cuts, it may actively suppress furnace materials, and in the later stage, there may be a driving opportunity for the sector to rise in resonance [3]. - For silicon iron and manganese silicon, affected by the external macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the third round of price increases has been delayed. Although the supply is tight currently, considering the weakening steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease. Pay attention to the performance of the 05 contract near the previous high for long - term low - buying, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on the 01 contract [3]. - For iron ore, with the weakening of macro - sentiment, the supply is stable. Due to environmental restrictions and potential steel mill maintenance, iron ore port inventories will rise, and it is advisable to try short - selling unilaterally [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts Closing Prices on October 31**: RB2605 was 3166.00 yuan/ton (-18.00, -0.57%), HC2605 was 3318.00 yuan/ton (-24.00, -0.72%), I2605 was 776.50 yuan/ton (-4.50, -0.58%), J2605 was 1916.50 yuan/ton (-22.00, -1.13%), JM2605 was 1354.00 yuan/ton (+15.00, +1.10%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts Closing Prices on October 31**: RB2601 was 3106.00 yuan/ton (+15.00, +0.48%), HC2601 was 3308.00 yuan/ton (-24.00, -0.72%), I2601 was 800.00 yuan/ton (-4.50, -0.56%), J2601 was 1777.00 yuan/ton (-20.00, -1.11%), JM2601 was 1286.00 yuan/ton (-12.00, -0.92%) [1]. - **Cross - month Spreads on October 31**: RB2601 - 2605 was -60.00 yuan/ton (-13.00), HC2601 - 2605 was -10.00 yuan/ton (+4.00), I2601 - 2605 was 23.50 yuan/ton (-1.00), J2601 - 2605 was -139.50 yuan/ton (+0.50), JM2601 - 2605 was -68.00 yuan/ton (+3.00) [1]. - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits on October 31**: The coil - to - rebar spread was 202.00 yuan/ton (-10.00), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.88 (+0.01), the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.38 (-0.01), the rebar disk profit was -160.25 yuan/ton (+8.88), the coking disk profit was 66.62 yuan/ton (-6.84) [1]. Spot Market - **Rebar Spot Prices on October 31**: Shanghai rebar was 3210.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Tianjin rebar was 3170.00 yuan/ton (-40.00), Guangzhou rebar was 3320.00 yuan/ton (-30.00), Tangshan billet was 2970.00 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the Platts Index was 107.40 (-0.30) [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Spot Prices on October 31**: Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3360.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton (-50.00), the billet - to - product spread was 240.00 yuan/ton (+30.00), and Rizhao Port PB was 800.00 yuan/ton (-7.00) [1]. - **Other Spot Prices on October 31**: Alumina was 733.00 yuan/ton (-5.00), a certain product was 775.00 yuan/ton (-5.00), Ganqimao Du coking coal was 1390.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1530.00 yuan/ton (0.00), and Qingdao Port PB was 800.00 yuan/ton (-7.00) [1]. - **Basis on October 31**: HC main contract was 2.00 yuan/ton (+10.00), RB main contract was 104.00 yuan/ton (0.00), I main contract was 44.00 yuan/ton (0.00), J main contract was -96.84 yuan/ton (+9.50), JM main contract was 134.00 yuan/ton (+2.00) [1]. Market Analysis - **Steel**: After the macro - events are realized, the market focus may return to the industry. The static supply - demand is healthy, but market confidence is insufficient. The steel production is expected to decline gradually, which may first suppress furnace materials and then drive the sector to rise [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by the macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The third round of price increases has been delayed. Although the supply is tight, considering the weakening steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease. Pay attention to the 05 contract for long - term low - buying, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on the 01 contract [3]. - **Iron Ore**: With the weakening of macro - sentiment, the supply is stable. Due to environmental restrictions and potential steel mill maintenance, iron ore port inventories will rise, and it is advisable to try short - selling unilaterally [3].

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the post - National Day price has been weakly oscillating, with low demand and obvious over - supply. The mid - term demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid level. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait for shorting opportunities on rebounds. [1] - For glass, the weekend news of production line shutdown in Shahe may have a positive impact on the market sentiment. Although there is still some peak - season demand expectation in November, the industry still needs capacity clearance in the long - term. It is recommended to close previous short positions and look for short - term long opportunities. [1] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in different regions remained unchanged on November 3, 2025. Glass 2505 decreased by 0.88%, and Glass 2509 increased by 0.08%. Soda ash 2505 decreased by 0.60%, and Soda ash 2509 increased by 0.08%. [1] - **Supply**: Soda ash's weekly output decreased by 1.71% to 75.76 tons, and its operating rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89%. Floating - glass daily melting volume remained unchanged, while photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 0.84%. [1] - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory increased by 4.72% to 65790,000 weight - cases, soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.54% to 1.702 million tons, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.18% to 676,900 tons. [1] - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50%. [1] Group 2: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, rubber prices are under pressure due to the Fed's hawkish stance on December's interest - rate cut. The prices may decline further if raw - material supply is smooth; otherwise, they are expected to oscillate between 15,000 - 15,500. [2] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Most natural rubber spot prices decreased on October 31, 2025. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 22.22%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 16.67%. [2] - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 0.43%, Indonesia's decreased by 4.30%, India's increased by 11.11%, and China's increased. Tire production in August increased by 9.10%, and tire exports in September decreased by 10.65%. [2] - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.20%, and natural - rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 4.73%. [2] Group 3: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Although the log futures price is at a relatively low level and the import cost provides some support, the market is still expected to oscillate at the bottom due to the weak supply - demand situation. [3] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, most log futures prices changed slightly. The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 22.0, and the 11 - 03 spread decreased. [3] - **Supply**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 33% week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 19%. [3] - **Demand**: As of October 24, the national coniferous log inventory decreased by 80,000 cubic meters week - on - week, and the daily log delivery volume increased by 120,000 cubic meters. [3] Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In November, the industrial silicon market still faces inventory pressure. Although supply may decline slightly and demand may remain stable, the flow of warehouse receipts to the spot market will increase supply. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [5] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, most industrial silicon spot prices remained stable or increased slightly. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 8.86%, and the 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 300.00%. [5] - **Fundamentals**: In October, the national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46%, the national operating rate increased by 10.86%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 0.29%, and polysilicon production increased by 3.08%. [5] - **Inventory Changes**: Most industrial silicon inventories decreased slightly, with the social inventory decreasing by 0.18% and the warehouse - receipt inventory decreasing by 0.33%. [5] Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In November, the polysilicon market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a high - level range - bound oscillation. Investment strategies include short - term long positions in futures, selling put options, and buying ETFs or related stocks. [6] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, polysilicon spot prices decreased slightly, and the futures price increased by 2.66%. The month - to - month spreads changed to varying degrees. [6] - **Fundamentals**: Weekly silicon - wafer production decreased by 3.33%, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.41%. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08%, and the net export volume decreased by 56.83%. [6] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.16%, silicon - wafer inventory increased by 2.49%, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 2.79%. [6]

Core Insights - The international gold price is declining due to a stronger US dollar and easing geopolitical tensions, which have reduced safe-haven demand for gold [3] - In contrast, domestic gold prices are rising due to fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate and increased demand from young investors who are engaging in a trend of accumulating gold beans [4] Group 1: International Gold Price Dynamics - The recent decline in international gold prices is primarily driven by a stronger US dollar and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve [3] - Easing geopolitical tensions have led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for gold, contributing to the price drop [3] Group 2: Domestic Gold Price Trends - Domestic gold prices are experiencing an upward trend due to the volatility of the RMB exchange rate and a growing appetite for gold as a safe-haven asset among local investors [4] - The trend of young consumers accumulating gold beans as a form of savings and fashion is significantly influencing domestic demand, especially ahead of holiday seasons [4] Group 3: Investment Considerations - For conservative investors, gold can serve as a risk-hedging asset, but caution is advised against chasing high prices, particularly in the context of widening price discrepancies between domestic and international markets [5] - Young investors are encouraged to be mindful of purchasing channels and premium levels when buying gold beans, as retail outlets may impose high processing fees [6] - The long-term trend of central banks globally increasing their gold reserves remains intact, suggesting potential opportunities for phased investments during price corrections [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Supply-Demand Dynamics - The current "internal-external divergence" in the gold market is driven by supply-demand relationships and market sentiment, highlighting the importance of macroeconomic factors internationally and emotional factors domestically [7] - Investors are advised to focus on long-term trends rather than being swayed by short-term market fluctuations [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Metals**: Iron ore, coal coke, rebar - Mainly in a process of returning to fundamentals with varying trends; steel products in shock adjustment [2]. - **Glass**: In a state of shock, with weak overall demand and increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Weak, with the glass industry facing an over - supply situation [2]. - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Market short - term consolidation, medium - term upward trend, recommended long - holding of stock index [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Market trend shows a slight rebound, recommended light - long holding of treasury bonds [3]. - **Gold and Silver**: High - level shock, with multiple factors influencing price trends [3]. - **Log**: Weak shock, with supply pressure increasing and demand likely to weaken [6]. - **Pulp**: Bottom consolidation, with cost support weakening and demand poor [6]. - **Double - offset Paper**: Weak shock, with supply pressure and cautious market expectations [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: Range operation, with supply being abundant and demand weak [6]. - **Meal**: Short - term rebound, affected by factors such as US soybean prices and South American weather [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: Shock - strong, with factors such as demand increase and price differentials supporting the market [7]. - **Rubber**: Shock, with raw material supply and demand and inventory factors affecting prices [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX for observation; PTA in shock; MEG, PR, PF for observation, with different supply - demand and cost factors influencing each [9]. Core Views - The macro - favorable policies such as the Fed's interest rate cut and Sino - US initial meeting have landed, and the prices of black metals are returning to fundamentals. The supply - demand situation of various commodities is complex, affected by factors such as production, demand, policies, and international situations [2][3]. - The stock index futures market has short - term fluctuations but a medium - term upward trend, while the treasury bond market shows a slight rebound. Gold and silver prices are affected by factors such as interest rate policies, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases [3]. - In the agricultural and forestry products market, the supply and demand of logs, pulp, and other products are changing, and the prices show different trends. The oils and fats and meal markets are affected by factors such as international trade and weather [6][7]. - The live pig market is affected by factors such as weight, demand, and price differentials, showing a shock - strong trend. The rubber and polyester product markets are also affected by multiple factors such as raw material supply, demand, and cost [7][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: Supply is expected to increase as Rio Tinto and VALE may increase production to meet annual targets. The supply - demand pattern is "supply is loose, demand is low, and port inventory is accumulating". The core of the decline in hot metal is the weak demand in the steel industry, especially in the real estate sector. The new construction of real estate has dropped to the 2005 level. The inventory of imported ore in 45 ports across the country has reached an 8 - month high. Future price changes depend on four main lines: the implementation rhythm of the "anti - involution" policy for coal and coke, the profit and maintenance elasticity of steel mills, the release intensity of terminal demand, and macro - policy signals [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: Driven by multiple news such as the high - quality development of the coal industry in the "14th Five - Year Plan", mine accidents, and production restrictions, the prices have risen. The core contradiction in the market is the extremely low profit level of steel mills. If the finished steel market continues to weaken, the scope of steel mill maintenance may expand, which will put pressure on the raw material end. Coke has started the third round of price increases, and the short - term trend is shock - strong [2]. - **Rebar**: The static valuation is low, and the core of the decline in hot metal is the weak steel demand. The new construction of real estate has dropped to the 2005 level. The supply - demand contradiction of steel still exists, and the price is mainly in shock adjustment. The decline in steel prices can be stopped if the production reduction in the fourth quarter of 2025 reaches more than 5% and the "anti - involution" policy is strongly implemented. The real estate development investment data from January to September decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, and the decline rate increased by 1% compared with January to August. The year - on - year growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment from January to September dropped to 1.1% and 4% respectively [2]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The demand is weak, and the inventory of glass factories is increasing. The contradiction between the mid - stream shipment and the weak downstream demand has led to the failure of the apparent demand to recover. The continuous decline in real estate completion during the peak season has dragged down the demand outlook. To resolve the over - supply contradiction in the entire industry chain, the daily melting volume of glass needs to drop to about 154,000 tons by the end of the year. The short - term price is in low - level shock [2]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.47%, the SSE 50 Index fell by 1.15%, the CSI 500 Index fell by 0.74%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.29%. The market short - term consolidates, and the medium - term trend is upward. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond has decreased, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of funds. The spot interest rate of treasury bonds is consolidating, and the market trend shows a slight rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [3]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. It is affected by factors such as currency attributes, financial attributes,避险 attributes, and commodity attributes. The Fed's interest rate policy and geopolitical risks are short - term disturbing factors. The short - term price of gold is expected to remain in high - level shock [3]. Agricultural and Forestry Products - **Log**: The daily average shipment volume of ports has increased, but the demand may weaken in the future. The import volume in the fourth quarter shows a seasonal increase, and the supply pressure is increasing. The port inventory is expected to change from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. The spot market price is relatively stable, and the price is expected to show a weak shock trend [6]. - **Pulp**: The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand is poor. The paper industry has low profitability, and paper mills have high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high - price pulp. The price is expected to be in bottom consolidation [6]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The new production capacity in South China has increased, and the supply pressure still exists. The market expectation is cautious, and the price is expected to show a weak shock trend [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: The US government shutdown has led to a lack of official data guidance. The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is favorable, but the high inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and the possible postponement of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy have affected the market. The domestic supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the demand is weak. The overall price is expected to continue range operation [6]. - **Meal**: Affected by the recovery of US soybean exports, the price of US soybeans has risen, which has increased the cost of domestic soybean imports. The planting progress of soybeans in South America is affected by weather, and the domestic supply of meal has increased, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to have a short - term rebound [6][7]. Livestock Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight has increased slightly, and the demand has increased with the decrease in temperature. The price of large pigs is firm, and the price of standard pigs has also risen. The slaughter volume may increase slightly, and the weekly average price of live pigs is expected to rise [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyesters - **Rubber**: The raw material supply in different regions is affected by weather. The demand side has an increase in the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The inventory of natural rubber is decreasing, but the expected increase in future supply will suppress raw material prices, and the price is expected to show a wide - range shock [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX is affected by potential supply risks and short - term supply - demand changes. PTA has a marginal improvement in supply - demand but is affected by cost. MEG has high supply and potential over - supply in the future. PR has increased supply pressure, and PF is expected to be weakly sorted [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The nickel market is in a state of intense long - short game, with nickel prices oscillating in a range. The bearish logic lies in the high - level accumulation of smelting inventory and the expected supply pressure, while the bullish support comes from the uncertainty of Indonesian nickel ore supply policies and the limited downward space of short - term pyrometallurgical costs [5]. - Stainless steel: The stainless - steel price shows a narrow - range oscillation at a low level. There is a lack of effective upward drivers and limited downward space. It is recommended to focus on a conservative low - level range strategy in the short term and a bottom - seeking long - entry strategy in the long term [6]. - Industrial silicon: The industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts are being depleted, providing a bottom support. The supply is expected to decrease from November, and the demand is also weakening. It is advisable to take a long - position layout on dips [34]. - Polysilicon: There may be policy announcements next week, and the futures price is expected to rise and then fall. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [35]. - Lithium carbonate: In the short term, there is an expectation of a power - demand off - season, while in the long term, there is an expectation of growth in energy storage. The price is expected to correct in the short term, and it is recommended to increase the proportion of short - hedging [70][73]. - Palm oil: The inventory de - stocking process in the producing areas is slow, and there may be a second downward exploration. The price may return to the range of 8200 - 8400 [84]. - Soybean oil: The U.S. soybean price has rebounded, and soybean oil remains relatively strong among oil varieties. However, it lacks an independent upward driver and is recommended for long - allocation [86]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: For nickel, the smelting - end inventory accumulation suppresses the price, while the uncertainty of the ore end provides support. For stainless steel, the price oscillates in a narrow range at a low level due to the lack of upward drivers and limited downward space [5][6]. - **Inventory Tracking**: The social inventory of refined nickel in China has increased, and the inventory of nickel - related products such as stainless steel has also shown certain changes [8]. - **Market News**: There are various news events related to the nickel market, including Indonesian ore - mining sanctions and policy announcements, as well as trade - related news [9][10][11]. - **Data Tracking**: Weekly key data of nickel and stainless steel futures, including prices, trading volumes, and related product prices, are tracked [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: This week, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated strongly, and the spot price increased. The polysilicon futures price continued to rise, while the spot price remained stable [29]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: For industrial silicon, the supply shows a decreasing trend, and the demand is also weakening. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to contract, and the demand may decrease [30][33]. - **Market Outlook**: Industrial silicon has bottom support due to the depletion of warehouse receipts, and polysilicon may experience a price increase and then a fall due to possible policy announcements [34][35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: The lithium carbonate futures contract first rose and then fell, and the spot price increased [68]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The raw material price has increased, the inventory is being depleted at an accelerated pace, the supply has decreased, and the demand shows a seasonal change [69]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is expected to correct in the short term, and it is recommended to increase the proportion of short - hedging [70][73]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Views**: Palm oil was expected to test the support at 8200 - 8400, and soybean oil was expected to oscillate weakly following the oil sector [83]. - **This Week's Views**: Palm oil may have a second downward exploration due to slow inventory de - stocking in the producing areas. Soybean oil remains relatively strong among oil varieties but lacks an independent upward driver [84][86].

Group 1: Energy and Metals Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The crude oil market faces medium - term supply - demand pressure due to OPEC+ production increases, although short - term support exists from Sino - US trade war easing [2]. - Precious metals are in a high - level volatile platform, and investors should wait for a stable and low - volatility entry opportunity [3]. Summary by Category - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ may increase the December production quota by 137,000 barrels per day on November 2nd, and the market has a downward risk despite short - term support [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, but Powell's hawkish stance and policy divergence among officials, along with Sino - US tariff cuts, lead to market sentiment swings [3]. - **Copper**: After hitting a record high, the copper price has a short - term callback, but the long - term potential remains, and bulls can hold at 86,500 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term trend is slightly bullish, but the upside space is limited due to general domestic inventory and consumption [5]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory is low, supporting the high - level operation of LME zinc, but there is short - term callback pressure. The export window of zinc ingots is open, and the market expects an increase in exports in November [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is weak, with high - nickel pig iron prices falling and inventories changing [10]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to be short - term bearish, and investors can hold short positions based on 285,000 [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price is strong, and the market is concerned about inventory reduction and policy increments, with a short - term bullish and volatile outlook [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price has a slight increase, but the short - term upside space is limited due to potential supply and demand weakening [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price is volatile, and the market needs to wait for the implementation of enterprise production cuts in November to improve the supply - demand pattern [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment is high, and the demand support for prices is weakening. The market is expected to be in high - level oscillation [16]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: There is an expectation of a third price increase, but the coking profit is average, and the market should pay attention to the impact of Sino - US leader negotiations [17][18]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The demand for ironmaking maintains a high level, but the iron production in Tangshan may decline. The supply and demand of both are relatively stable [19][20]. Group 2: Chemicals Core Views - Most chemical products face various supply - demand and cost - related challenges, with different price trends. Summary by Category - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's support may be unsustainable, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weak, but there may be supply contractions [22]. - **Asphalt**: The "peak season" demand is weaker than expected, and the long - term de - stocking slowdown limits the upside space [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The fundamentals are improving, and the near - month contract is in a slightly bullish oscillation [24]. - **Urea**: The supply exceeds demand, but demand and cost provide some support, and the short - term price is low [25]. - **Methanol**: The near - term port inventory pressure is high, and the demand is weak, but it may gradually stop falling and stabilize [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The import volume is high, and the market is under pressure. The focus is on port inventory accumulation [27]. - **Styrene**: The price may continue to be weak due to cost and inventory concerns [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The cost support weakens, and the downstream demand decreases, leading to price declines or narrow - range adjustments [29]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC has cost support but weak fundamentals, while caustic soda is in a state of inventory accumulation and price decline [30]. - **PX and PTA**: The supply of both is increasing, and the market is in a weak oscillation without more positive news [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply and demand are expected to lead to inventory accumulation, and the price follows the market decline [32]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber may face inventory accumulation in November, and bottle - chip demand is weakening [33]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak situation, and the price decline space is limited at a low valuation [34]. - **Natural Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, etc.**: The strategy is bullish, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities should be noted [35]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the long - term is in a supply - surplus pattern, with a strategy of shorting at high prices [36]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Core Views - Sino - US trade relations affect the agricultural product market, and the supply - demand situation of each product varies. Summary by Category - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Sino - US trade is easing, and the market should pay attention to policies on US soybean imports and price quotes [37]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: In the short term, soybean meal is expected to be stronger than oil, and attention should be paid to palm oil supply and Sino - US soybean trade [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The uncertainty of rapeseed - related trade is high, and rapeseed meal is expected to rebound in the short term while rapeseed oil is under pressure [39]. - **Corn**: The supply is abundant, and the price may continue to be weak at the bottom. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade and corn imports [41]. - **Hogs**: The futures price is falling due to potential supply pressure, and there may be a second bottom - testing next year [42]. - **Eggs**: The price is supported by rising vegetable prices, and the futures price is rising. Wait for a short - selling opportunity in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Cotton**: The new cotton cost provides some support, but the market is in a weak peak season. The short - term rise is a rebound with limited space [44]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate [45]. - **Apples**: High - quality apples have stable high prices, but low - quality apples may cause inventory pressure later [46]. - **Timber**: The low inventory supports the price, but the supply and demand situation is complex [47]. - **Pulp**: The port inventory is high, the supply is loose, and the demand is average. The operation is mainly short - term or wait - and - see [48]. Group 4: Financial Products Core Views - The A - share market may maintain a relatively strong pattern in the medium term, and the bond market is in a repair stage. Summary by Category - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fell with technology stocks adjusting. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation results are positive for the medium - term market sentiment, and the focus should be on the technology growth sector [49]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures are slightly bullish. The Japanese central bank may raise interest rates, and the domestic bond market is entering a repair stage [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - After the implementation of interest rate cuts and tariff policies, the copper market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The supply shortage of copper mines strengthens the price bottom, and downstream demand shows strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the support around 87,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum oxide market shows regional differentiation, with the north showing signs of bottoming and the south continuing to decline. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is strong, supported by macro factors and demand in some fields, and is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract ranging from 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market maintains a high - level oscillation. The cost support is prominent, and the supply shows a contraction trend. The demand shows a mild recovery, and the social inventory accumulates weekly. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - After the macro positive expectations are fulfilled, the zinc price oscillates. The supply is expected to increase limitedly due to compressed smelting profits, and the demand is stable. There is a risk of a short squeeze in LME, and the export window is intermittently open. The zinc price has short - term support but may continue to oscillate without a clear turning point in the supply - side logic [9]. Tin - The supply of tin mines remains tight, and the demand is weak. Powell's hawkish statement may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The subsequent trend depends on macro factors and the supply recovery in Myanmar [11]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillates. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, the mine price is firm, but the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is expected to decrease. The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the industry profit is shrinking. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market oscillates and weakens. The nickel ore price is firm, but the supply in the Philippines may decrease. The nickel - iron and chromium - iron prices are under pressure, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. The price is expected to weakly oscillate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is strong. The auction price of lithium mines provides support. The supply shows a slight decrease, and the demand is unexpectedly optimistic. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 83,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 88,065 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 883 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 2,515 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 4,757 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 284,000 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 15,249.89 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,200 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1,540 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 80,000 yuan/ton, up 1.07% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data Production - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper production in September was 1.121 million tons, down 4.31% from the previous month [1]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum oxide production in September was 7.6037 million tons, down 1.74% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, down 3.16% from the previous month [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in September was 661,000 tons, up 7.48% from the previous month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, up 4.43% from the previous month [5]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc production in September was 600,100 tons, down 4.17% from the previous month [9]. - **Tin**: The SMM refined tin production in September was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% from the previous month [11]. - **Nickel**: The production of refined nickel products in China was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% from the previous month [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 1.8217 million tons, up 0.38% from the previous month [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate in September was 87,260 tons, up 2.37% from the previous month [17]. Inventory - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory of copper is 182,600 tons, up 0.55% from the previous week; the SHFE inventory is 104,800 tons, down 4.94% from the previous week [1]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China is 619,000 tons, up 0.16% from the previous day; the LME inventory is 460,000 tons, down 0.70% from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 54,800 tons, up 0.18% from the previous week [5]. - **Zinc**: The seven - place social inventory of zinc ingots in China is 161,500 tons, down 0.37% from the previous week; the LME inventory is 35,000 tons, down 0.85% from the previous day [9]. - **Tin**: The SHEF inventory of tin is 5,766 tons, up 1.32% from the previous week; the social inventory is 6,828 tons, down 2.69% from the previous week [11]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory of nickel is 36,075 tons, up 4.81% from the previous week; the social inventory is 48,802 tons, up 2.29% from the previous week [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory of 300 - series (Wuxi + Foshan) is 492,200 tons, down 0.55% from the previous week; the SHFE warrant is 73,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate in September was 94,539 tons, up 0.38% from the previous month [17].

Group 1: Report's Core Views - Observe the inflection point of the weakening of the steel market sentiment and gradually reduce the spot or long positions [2] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, and future supply - demand changes should be monitored [2] - After the macro - positive factors are realized, the coal - coke market may see a supply - demand adjustment, and the 05 contract of coking coal tests the support at the previous high [4] - The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are marginally weakening, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [5] Group 2: Market Conditions and Analysis Steel - On Thursday, the inventory data of steel was acceptable, with no effective inventory accumulation in the steel segment. However, the futures market fluctuated greatly, and the sentiment of positions became chaotic. After recent important events, the market sentiment may cool down. The basis between futures and spot has been repaired from a high level, but the production profit has not been effectively repaired, and it is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of weakening sentiment [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Affected by external macro factors, market sentiment declined, and the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese followed the adjustment of the black sector. Their fundamentals have problems such as high supply, large inventory reduction pressure, and weak downstream demand, and prices are likely to fluctuate under pressure [2] Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the trading atmosphere of coking coal and coke is average. Coking coal prices are rising, but there are more failed auctions. The price of port - traded quasi - first - grade coke is 1660 (+10), and the coking coal price index is 1343.6 (+7.0). After the macro - positive factors are realized, the black sector has declined, and coking coal and coke are relatively strong. But considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease [4] Iron Ore - After the short - term conclusion of the Sino - US negotiation, commodities have significantly corrected. The supply of iron ore is within a reasonable range. This period has seen a significant decline in hot metal, and if the decline continues, the supply - demand surplus pressure of iron ore in the fourth quarter will increase. The expected increase in supply still limits the price ceiling [5] Group 3: Price and Data Information Futures Closing Prices - On October 30, for far - month contracts, RB2605 was 3327.00 (-3.00, -0.09%), HC2605 was 3170.00 (12.00, 0.39%), JM2605 was 779.50 (-18.50, -0.36%), J2605 was 1359.00 (3.00, 1.38%); for near - month contracts, RB2601 was 3106.00 (20.50, -0.38%), HC2601 was 3318.00 (12.00, -0.33%), J2601 was 802.50 (3.00, 0.59%), JM2601 was 1288.00 (10.50, 0.38%) [1] Spot Prices - On October 30, the price of Tianjin rebar was 3000.00 (-40.00), Tangshan billet was 3210.00 (20.00), Shanghai rebar was 3210.00 (0.00), Guangzhou rebar was 3350.00, and the Platts Index was 107.70 (-0.70). The price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 (4.00), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3360.00 (-50.00), Rizhao Port PB was 807.00 (-40.00), and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3360.00 [1] Spreads, Ratios and Profits - On October 30, the rebar disk profit was 212.00 (-0.02), the coil - rebar spread was 1.39 (0.00), the coal - coke ratio was -169.13 (-16.45), the coking disk profit was 73.46, the rebar - ore ratio was 3.87 [1]

Core Insights - Global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, with a total value of $146 billion, marking the highest quarterly demand ever recorded [1] - The surge in gold prices, which increased over 50% this year, was driven by geopolitical risks and market dynamics, although a recent price correction occurred due to easing tensions between the US and China [1][3] - Investment demand for gold has significantly increased, accounting for 55% of total net demand in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 47% [6] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global gold investment demand rose to 537 tons in Q3, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a weakening dollar, alongside a fear of missing out among investors [6] - Central banks globally purchased a net total of 220 tons of gold in Q3, a 28% increase from the previous quarter and a 10% increase year-on-year, contributing to a total of 634 tons for the first three quarters of the year [7][8] - The total global gold supply reached 1,313 tons in Q3, a 3% increase year-on-year, with mine production up 2% to 977 tons and recycled gold supply up 6% to 344 tons [8][9] Regional Insights - In China, retail gold investment and consumption demand reached 152 tons in Q3, a 7% decline year-on-year, but the monetary value surged to 120.4 billion yuan, a 29% increase, marking the highest Q3 value on record [9][12] - Chinese gold ETF holdings saw a net outflow of 3.8 billion yuan in Q3, with total holdings decreasing by 5.8 tons, although the asset management total increased by 11% to 168.8 billion yuan [12][14] - Despite high gold prices, consumer spending on gold jewelry in China reached 66.5 billion yuan in Q3, a 14% increase year-on-year, indicating a willingness to purchase despite price pressures [12][13] Future Outlook - The World Gold Council anticipates that gold jewelry consumption may see seasonal improvements in Q4, although this could be tempered by high gold prices and the timing of the Chinese New Year [14] - Investment demand for gold is expected to remain strong due to ongoing geopolitical risks and potential monetary policy changes, including interest rate cuts in China [15][17] - The recent regulatory changes allowing insurance funds to invest in gold are expected to provide long-term support for gold investment demand in China [16]