Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex and diversified situation, with different commodities and sectors presenting various trends. Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as geopolitical events, policy changes, and seasonal patterns. Market participants should pay close attention to these factors and adjust their investment strategies accordingly [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: API data shows an increase in US refined oil and crude oil inventories. The external market oil price fell more than 1% on Tuesday. Although there are some short - term positive news, the supply - demand surplus expansion determines that the oil price center has a downward pressure [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's short - term supply pressure is relieved, but the supply is still expected to be loose in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's short - term supply pressure is also alleviated, and attention should be paid to whether the end - of - year shipping peak season and winter power generation demand can improve its supply - demand structure [19] - **Asphalt**: The domestic asphalt market shows a regional differentiated price trend. The demand in Northeast and North China is gradually stagnant, while the South China market is weak. The weekly shipment volume is at a low level in the past four years, and it is expected that BU will continue to be weak [20] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated. Silver's upward trend slowed after hitting a new high, and gold also showed fluctuations. Platinum has a supply gap this year, and palladium is in a tight - balance supply - demand situation. Platinum is stronger than palladium in performance [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, while Shanghai copper showed some resilience in the previous trading - intensive area. It is recommended to hold long positions based on the MA5 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions increased slightly, and the spot discount slightly expanded. The aluminum market's fundamental contradictions are limited, and it is testing the previous high of 22,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic supply and demand of zinc both decreased, while the overseas zinc ingot spot is tight. The LME zinc is running at a high level, and the export window is open, driving the domestic market up. The bottom support of zinc is strong, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the import window is open, transferring the overseas surplus pressure to the domestic market. The domestic refined - scrap lead price difference is 25 yuan/ton, and the social inventory is at a low level. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin closed down, and Shanghai tin fluctuated with a positive line above 300,000 yuan. It is not recommended to chase the high, and a medium - to - long - term short - allocation with a hedging strategy is suggested [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market is driven down by the decline in polysilicon prices. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the DMC price trend [10] - **Iron & Steel Related** - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment is strong, and the domestic arrival volume is high. The port inventory is accumulating. The demand for iron ore may further decline. The market has expectations for policy benefits, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [13] - **Coke**: The coke price oscillated strongly during the day. The market has expectations for downstream replenishment. The coking profit is average, and the inventory has a slight increase. The price is expected to maintain a rebound in the short term [14] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price oscillated strongly during the day. The market expects downstream replenishment. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated during the day. The spot price of manganese ore increased. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. Attention should be paid to the follow - up impact of the reduction in Ghana's shipment [16] - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated during the day. The market expects coal supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in power cost and blue - carbon price. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the export demand has decreased. The supply of silicon iron has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly [17] Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene's price slightly increased. The supply of polyethylene has limited changes, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply of polypropylene is expected to slightly increase, and the short - term demand is also weak [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC oscillates. The export situation may improve, and the supply pressure may be relieved. It is expected to operate in a low - level range. Caustic soda oscillates weakly. The supply is high, and the downstream demand is insufficient [26] - **PX & PTA**: The price of PX and PTA is driven down by the oil price. PTA continues to cut production, and the demand for PX is weak in the short term. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to be repaired [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased. The supply has improved marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate. However, it is expected to accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and its price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - chip's demand is weak, and the over - capacity is a long - term pressure [29] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The South American soybean planting progress is different. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. The 05 contract has reached the upper edge of the oscillation platform, and attention should be paid to the US soybean export and South American weather [33] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil's near - month contract is reducing positions and shifting positions. The supply of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in November, and the Indonesian export policy is favorable. The overall view of soybean and palm oil is range - bound [34] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The relationship between China and Canada has not improved, and rapeseed is oscillating at the bottom. Rapeseed meal's demand is weak, and rapeseed oil is mainly destocking. The rapeseed series is expected to oscillate in a range [35] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybeans are oscillating strongly. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight. The US soybean is affected by South American weather and export factors, and is expected to oscillate strongly [36] - **Corn**: The spot market drives the corn futures to oscillate at a high level. The new grain supply is lower than expected, and there is a supply - demand mismatch. Attention should be paid to the new grain sales progress in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [37] - **Pork**: The pork futures fluctuate narrowly, and the spot price is slightly down. The southern curing will start soon, but there is also pressure from the second - fattening pigs. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [38] - **Eggs**: The egg futures rose sharply and then fell. The far - month contract should not be chased up, and the near - month contract may oscillate weakly [39] - **Cotton**: The US cotton slightly decreased. The domestic cotton supply pressure is not large, and the new cotton sales progress is fast. The pure - cotton yarn price is stable, and the new orders are insufficient. The industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities [40] - **Sugar**: The US sugar oscillates. The production in India and Thailand is expected to be good. The domestic market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate, and the production in Guangxi is expected to be good [41] - **Apple**: The apple futures oscillate at a high level. The spot price is strong, and the inventory is lower than last year. In the long - term, there may be inventory pressure in the far - month contract [42] - **Wood**: The wood futures oscillate. The supply is not expected to increase significantly in the short term, the demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the price [43] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures rose sharply yesterday. The domestic port inventory is still high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [44] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fell with reduced volume yesterday. The stock index futures all closed down. The external market is mixed. The short - term macro - liquidity factor has uncertainties, and a wait - and - see and defensive strategy is recommended [45] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures oscillate. The six major banks have stopped selling 5 - year large - value deposits. The bond market sentiment is cautious, and the long - term interest rate lacks the basis for a large - scale increase [46]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the CESCO copper conference shows that institutions and the industry generally agree on the idea of buying on dips. The copper price is expected to move up, with a range of $10,500 - $11,300. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased demand from the domestic power grid in 2026, global computing power center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction. Bearish factors mainly concern the potential outflow of North American inventories if US tariffs disappear [1]. - For aluminum, the Shanghai aluminum futures price has stabilized and rebounded. Aluminum ingot inventories have decreased significantly, and downstream consumption is fair. It may show a volatile trend in the short - term. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose at the beginning of 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. - For zinc, the zinc price has fluctuated this week. The supply side has issues such as accelerating decline in domestic and imported TC, and some smelters have production changes. The demand side is seasonally weak domestically and generally average overseas. The export window has opened, and the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [2]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are increasing both at home and abroad. Given the ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and the policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. - For stainless steel, supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Considering the Indonesian policy's motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. - For lead, the lead price has declined this week, and trading has improved. Supply is abundant, while demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and social inventories are starting to accumulate. The lead price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 16,900 - 17,200, and cautious operation is recommended [4][5]. - For tin, the tin price has risen this week. The supply side has limited processing fees and various disturbances, and the demand side is mainly supported by rigid needs. In the short - term, the fundamentals are fair, and it is recommended to hold near the cost line on price dips or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [8]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, due to over - capacity and low operating rates, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the market has multiple expectations this week. The raw material supply is still tight, and the downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term supply and demand are both strong. If CATL resumes production in December, the de - stocking is expected to be 5,000 - 6,000 tons. However, due to high inventories in the intermediate and battery raw material sectors, the price increase still depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [9]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 20, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 309, and the LME inventory increased by 2,375 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price is expected to move up, with a range of $10,500 - $11,300. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased demand from the domestic power grid in 2026, global computing power center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction. Bearish factors mainly concern the potential outflow of North American inventories if US tariffs disappear [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 80, and the LME inventory remained unchanged. The aluminum ingot inventory decreased significantly, and downstream products also showed inventory reduction [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The Shanghai aluminum futures price has stabilized and rebounded. It may show a volatile trend in the short - term. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose at the beginning of 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 180, the LME zinc inventory increased by 350, and the LME zinc注销仓单 decreased by 250 [1][2]. - **Market Outlook**: The zinc price has fluctuated this week. The supply side has issues such as accelerating decline in domestic and imported TC, and some smelters have production changes. The demand side is seasonally weak domestically and generally average overseas. The export window has opened, and the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,290 [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are increasing both at home and abroad. Given the ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and the policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the price of 304 hot - rolled coils increased by 50, and other prices remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Considering the Indonesian policy's motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the lead price decreased, the LME lead inventory decreased by 3,925, and the LME lead注销仓单 decreased by 3,900 [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price has declined this week, and trading has improved. Supply is abundant, while demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and social inventories are starting to accumulate. The lead price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 16,900 - 17,200, and cautious operation is recommended [4][5]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the tin price increased, the LME tin inventory decreased by 15, and the LME tin注销仓单 remained unchanged [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin price has risen this week. The supply side has limited processing fees and various disturbances, and the demand side is mainly supported by rigid needs. In the short - term, the fundamentals are fair, and it is recommended to hold near the cost line on price dips or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the basis of 421 silicon in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 170, and the basis of 553 silicon in East China and Tianjin also increased by 170. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 188 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, due to over - capacity and low operating rates, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 50, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 770 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The market has multiple expectations this week. The raw material supply is still tight, and the downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term supply and demand are both strong. If CATL resumes production in December, the de - stocking is expected to be 5,000 - 6,000 tons. However, due to high inventories in the intermediate and battery raw material sectors, the price increase still depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [9].

Group 1: General Market Conditions - On December 2, 2025, A-share's three major indexes collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42% to 3897.71 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.68% to 13056.70 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.69% to 3071.15 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1593.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 280.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index adjusted on December 2, closing at 4554.34, down 22.15 [2] Group 2: Coke and Coking Coal - On December 2, the coke weighted index continued to rebound, closing at 1677.7, up 35.6; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1139.3 yuan, up 19.6 [2][3] - Coke supply is increasing, with significant inventory accumulation. Mine clean coal inventory increased by 20.44% in a single week, and coke plant inventory increased by 9.91% [4] - As of the end of October 2025, China's imported coking coal reached 98.869 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%. In October, the total import volume was 10.5932 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.02% and a year-on-year increase of 6.39%. From January to October, China's coke export volume was 6.2189 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.05%. In October, coke exports were 727,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 34% and a year-on-year increase of 49.92% [4] Group 3: Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the supply outlook and weak technical indicators, US sugar tumbled on Monday. Under the influence of the decline in US sugar, the short sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract to decline on Tuesday and in the night session [4] - Brazil's central-southern region produced 983,000 tons of sugar in the first half of November, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. The sugarcane crushing volume reached 18.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. The proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production dropped to 38.6% [4] Group 4: Rubber - Due to the large decline in the previous trading day, the rubber futures prices rebounded due to bargain hunting. The short sellers pressured the Shanghai Rubber futures to decline slightly in the night session [5] - ANRPC predicted that global natural rubber production in October would increase by 2.7% to 1.496 million tons, and consumption would decrease by 4.2% to 1.26 million tons. In the first 10 months, cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.6% to 11.9 million tons, and cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.8% to 12.684 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 1.3% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption was expected to increase by 0.8% to 15.565 million tons [5] Group 5: Soybean Meal - On December 2, CBOT soybean futures prices slightly declined. The large expected production of South American soybeans suppressed the speculation of US soybean demand [5] - As of last Thursday, the sown area of Brazilian soybeans reached 89% of the expected area, compared with 91% in the same period last year. StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production would be 177.2 million tons. Argentina's soybean sowing was progressing smoothly, with a planting rate of over 20% [5] - On December 1, the M2601 contract closed at 3039 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%. Currently, soybean supply is sufficient, crushing volume has increased, and soybean meal inventory is at a high level. The domestic soybean meal futures market is in a situation of cost support and supply pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5] Group 6: Live Pigs - On December 2, the LH2601 contract closed at 11455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35%. In the short term, as the end of the year approaches, most large-scale pig enterprises are more willing to sell pigs to meet their annual targets, and the number of pigs for sale has increased, putting pressure on prices [5] - The demand for pork has increased marginally due to the drop in temperature, and the traditional bacon-making season has started in the southwest region, but the overall progress is slow, and the demand recovery is gentle. The live pig market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [5] Group 7: Palm Oil - On December 2, the main palm oil contract continued to move positions and rebound. The price briefly opened lower and then quickly rose, closing at 8720, up 0.79%. The expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 30 was 779,392 tons, a decrease of 39.21% compared with the same period last month [5] Group 8: Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai Copper 2601 contract showed a weak pattern of opening high and closing low. The linkage between futures and spot and between domestic and foreign markets weakened, and the trading activity decreased. The contract opened at 89410 yuan/ton, reached a high of 89920 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 88920 yuan/ton [6] - The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve supported the US dollar, suppressing global copper demand and causing funds to flow out of the non-ferrous metal sector. Traditional demand is weak, and the copper consumption in the real estate sector is under pressure. The supply-side positive factors cannot offset these two pressures [6] Group 9: Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main Zhengzhou Cotton contract closed at 13720 yuan/ton. Cotton inventory increased by 96 lots compared with the previous trading day. Xinjiang's cotton purchase is basically over, and it is in the peak processing period. The commercial inventory is growing rapidly and is significantly higher than the same period last year [6] Group 10: Iron Ore - On December 2, the main iron ore 2601 contract fluctuated and closed up 0.5% at 800.5 yuan. The shipping volume increased month-on-month, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased again. In the off-season, as the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline, the molten iron output continued to decline, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [6] Group 11: Asphalt - On December 2, the main asphalt 2601 contract fluctuated and declined 2.41% to close at 2916 yuan. In December, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan decreased month-on-month, the inventory decreased, the demand entered the off-season, and the downstream procurement was cautious. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate [6] Group 12: Logs - On December 2, the log 2601 contract opened at 767.5, with a minimum of 767.5, a maximum of 774.5, and closed at 769.5, with a decrease of 1151 lots in positions. The spot price of 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, down 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day, and the price in Jiangsu was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [6][7] Group 13: Steel - On December 2, the rb2601 contract closed at 3169 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3325 yuan/ton. The total new house sales area in ten major cities was 2.1112 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year decrease of 38%. The real estate market is still at a low level. Due to the rush to complete infrastructure projects in some areas, demand has remained resilient, and steel inventory is expected to continue to decline. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [7] Group 14: Alumina - On December 2, the ao2601 contract closed at 2670 yuan/ton. The trading logic of alumina supply exceeding demand continues, and the upward pressure remains. Domestic alumina production capacity is high, the import window is open, and the arrival of imported alumina will further exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand. Demand is weak, and the spot market trading is cold [7][8] Group 15: Shanghai Aluminum - On December 2, the al2601 contract closed at 21910 yuan/ton. The inhibitory effect of high aluminum prices on consumption has gradually eased, and some postponed demand has begun to be released. The operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, and primary and secondary aluminum alloy sectors have all improved to varying degrees. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8]

其他品种方面，贵金属继续高位盘整，沪银盘中再度刷新历史新高至13700/千克以上的水平，最大涨幅超5%，但终盘涨幅有所回落，仅收涨2.46%。 多晶硅快速回落铂钯转跌低开 12月2日，多晶硅主力合约快速回落，低开后持续下行，以2.70%的跌幅领跌国内商品市场。广期所昨日对多晶硅期货PS2601合约的交易保证金标准及交易 限额作出调整，市场多头情绪快速降温。从基本面来看，光大期货表示，光伏集中式项目收尾，海外需求同步下滑，组件端大版型订单大幅缩水，产业链需 求负反馈效应加剧。硅料厂延续强势挺价、叠加盘面近月挤仓和正套操作，近期现货不跌反涨。硅料厂延续减产降库不降价策略，市场量价分离、有价无市 特征愈发明确。随着交易所改变交易规则，近月挤仓风险出现下降，关注后续持仓量变化。 铂钯今日转跌调整，主力合约均跌超2%。虽然美联储降息预期将强，但此前的上涨已在盘面体现，白银在库存紧张下快速走高，但金价上涨动能有限，同 时日本央行的鹰派言论引发市场对全球流动性收紧的担忧，贵金属市场整体情绪有所回落。就铂钯自身而言，银河期货认为，铂金2025年总体供需处于偏紧 状态，铂金显性库存有去化表现，基本面有支撑，但近期广期所铂价与外 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the stock index market, the policy supports the capital market, and the technology - growth sector remains the main line, with a long - term bullish view on the index. In the bond market, the fourth - quarter bond supply - demand pattern may improve, and the market is expected to remain volatile. For precious metals, silver is strong due to expectations of Fed's easing policies. In the non - ferrous metal market, most metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. In the black building materials market, the steel and iron ore markets face different challenges, and the glass - soda ash and other sub - sectors also have their own characteristics. In the energy - chemical market, different products have different supply - demand and price trends. In the agricultural products market, different products such as livestock, grains, and oils also show different supply - demand and price trends [4][6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: French President Macron will visit China from December 3 - 5. Many cities are implementing new housing subsidy policies. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology encourages Chinese advantageous enterprises to "go global". The market's expectation of Fed's interest rate cut has increased, and the price of London spot silver has reached a new high [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market rotation has accelerated, and the risk preference has decreased. The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the technology - growth sector is the main line. The long - term view is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different price changes. The Bank of Japan governor mentioned future interest - rate hike paths. The CSRC is promoting the REITs market. The central bank conducted 1076 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 2311 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI in November improved, but the service industry was weak. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The central bank maintains a positive attitude towards funds. The bond market is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond linkage and liquidity [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose. COMEX gold and silver also had certain prices. The US economic data was lower than expected, pushing up the silver price. The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2 [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The silver price is expected to continue to rise strongly next week, with attention to the resistance level of 14,500 yuan/kg. Gold is recommended to buy on dips. The reference ranges for Shanghai silver and gold are provided [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price rose, with LME copper up 0.51% and Shanghai copper at 89,380 yuan/ton. The LME copper inventory was flat, and the domestic copper inventory decreased. The spot import loss increased [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment is positive due to the expected Fed's interest rate cut. The copper raw material supply is tight, and the price is expected to be strong. The reference ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are provided [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rose, with LME aluminum up 0.8% and Shanghai aluminum at 21,885 yuan/ton. The domestic and LME aluminum inventories decreased. The market sentiment was weak [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to rise further due to inventory reduction, supply disturbances, and copper price increase. The reference ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are provided [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price rose, with Shanghai zinc up 0.75% and LME zinc at 3065.5 dollars/ton. The zinc inventory decreased, and the import loss was high [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry has a weak supply - demand situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. The zinc market has low attractiveness to speculative funds [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell, with Shanghai lead down 0.10% and LME lead at 1982.5 dollars/ton. The lead inventory decreased, and the import profit was positive [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is expected to be strong in the short term due to the positive sentiment in the non - ferrous metal industry during the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price rebounded, with Shanghai nickel at 117,850 yuan/ton. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price decline slowed down [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trends of nickel iron and ore prices. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price rose, with Shanghai tin at 306,580 yuan/ton. The tin supply was tight, and the demand was weak. The inventory decreased [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be strong in the short term due to supply disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference ranges for domestic and overseas tin are provided [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The carbonate lithium price rose, with the MMLC index up 1.07%. The futures price also rose [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future demand expectation has differences, and the price may fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to wait and see or use options. The reference range for the futures contract is provided [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell, with the index at 2716 yuan/ton. The inventory decreased, and the import profit was positive [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina price is expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies and Fed's policies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel price rose, with the main contract at 12,445 yuan/ton. The supply was high, and the demand improved marginally. The inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate widely due to high supply and cost pressure [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose, with the main contract at 21,055 yuan/ton. The inventory decreased [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cast aluminum alloy price is expected to follow the aluminum price trend due to cost support and supply disturbances [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The steel price rose, with rebar and hot - rolled coil prices increasing. The export to South Korea may be affected by anti - dumping duties [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel demand has entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure remains. Attention should be paid to the production - cut rhythm and important meetings [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price rose, with the main contract at 801 yuan/ton. The supply and demand situation changed, and the inventory increased [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the overall commodity environment [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass price fell, with the main contract at 1036 yuan/ton. The inventory decreased, and the demand was weak [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is in the bottom - exploring stage, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to short on rallies [36]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda - ash price was stable, with the main contract at 1176 yuan/ton. The inventory decreased, and the demand was weak [37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soda - ash price is expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to be bearish [37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. The manganese - silicon price was supported at 5600 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon price was in a downward channel [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black - building materials market is expected to have a rebound opportunity. The manganese - silicon price is unlikely to fall significantly, and attention should be paid to the manganese - ore situation. The ferrosilicon has low operability [40][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon price rose, with the main contract at 9145 yuan/ton. The inventory increased, and the demand was weak [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial - silicon price is expected to be stable in the short term. The supply and demand are weak, and it is easily affected by market sentiment [44]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon price rose, with the main contract at 57,705 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. The inventory decreased [45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon price is expected to be unstable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the platform - company situation [47]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fell, and the technical pattern was broken. The supply and demand situation was complex, and the inventory increased [49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see or use short - term trading. A hedging strategy is also recommended [54]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude - oil price rose, with the INE main contract at 455.7 yuan/barrel. The refined - oil inventories changed [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The crude - oil price is expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test the OPEC's export - support intention [56]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price rose, with the main contract at 2136 yuan/ton. The supply and demand improved, and the inventory decreased [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol price is expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the positive - spread opportunity [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price rose, with the main contract at 1675 yuan/ton. The supply and demand improved, and the inventory decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea price is expected to bottom out. It is recommended to buy on dips [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure - benzene and styrene prices were stable. The supply and demand situation changed, and the inventory increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene non - integrated profit has room for upward repair. It is recommended to buy when the inventory situation reverses [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price rose, with the main contract at 4553 yuan/ton. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC price is expected to be weak in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene - glycol price fell, with the main contract at 3882 yuan/ton. The supply and demand situation changed, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene - glycol price is expected to be weak in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price rose, with the main contract at 4762 yuan/ton. The supply and demand situation changed, and the inventory decreased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA price is expected to have a short - term rebound opportunity. It is recommended to buy on dips [68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price rose, with the main contract at 6930 yuan/ton. The supply and demand situation changed, and the inventory increased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene price is expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [70]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price rose, with the main contract at 6803 yuan/ton. The supply and demand situation changed, and the inventory decreased [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [72]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell, with the main contract at 6397 yuan/ton. The supply and demand situation changed, and the inventory decreased [73]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price is expected to be stable in the short term. It may be supported in the first quarter of next year [75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price rose in some areas and fell in others. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The pig price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or use reverse - spread strategies [78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was stable or rose. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the medium term. A short - long and long - short strategy is recommended [80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The soybean price fell, and the import cost decreased. The domestic soybean and meal inventories were high [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soybean and meal prices are expected to fluctuate. The import cost has a bottom, and the inventory is large [83]. Oils - **Market Information**: The palm - oil price was weak, and the export data decreased. The domestic oil inventories decreased [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The palm - oil price may reverse if the Indonesian production decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [86]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price was stable. The domestic sugar production decreased, and the global supply was expected to be in surplus [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [88]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price rose. The supply was high, and the demand was medium [89]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is expected to fluctuate. It is difficult to have a unilateral trend [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][4][7][10][12][15][16][17][19] 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and adopt a low - buying strategy on pullbacks. Monitor macro changes and supply - side recovery [1] Nickel Industry - Macro sentiment has slightly improved. Short - term upstream production cuts and valuation provide some support, but the upward drive is limited. The Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price will decline next month, and fundamental pressure restricts the upside space of prices. Expect the market to trade in a range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [3] Stainless Steel Industry - Policy - driven changes are difficult to have a direct impact in the short term. Fundamentals show limited improvement, cost support is weakening, demand is sluggish, and inventory reduction is difficult. The market is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,700. Follow the implementation of steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [4] Lithium Industry - The lithium carbonate futures market is in a wide - range shock, and market divergence is increasing. The main contract is expected to remain in a wide - range shock in the short term, with larger intraday fluctuations. Pay attention to the sustainability of demand improvement during the year - end off - season [7] Zinc Industry - As the TC declines and the export space opens up, the supply pressure eases. The downside space of short - term prices is limited, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. Prices are likely to trade in a range. Monitor the TC inflection point, refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 22,800 [10] Copper Industry - In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts, with the main contract support at 86,000 - 87,000 [12] Aluminum Industry - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock, with the main contract reference range of 2,650 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract reference range of 21,400 - 22,000 yuan/ton. Monitor the latest trends in the Fed's monetary policy and the sustainability of domestic inventory reduction [15] Aluminum Alloy Industry - The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by costs and demand. Short - term prices remain strong, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Focus on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction [16] Industrial Silicon Industry - The industrial silicon price is expected to remain in a low - range shock, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the downstream start - up changes and the impact of the inflow of cancelled warehouse receipts into the spot market [17] Polysilicon Industry - In December, the polysilicon market is expected to have oversupply and inventory accumulation. Futures trading should be on hold, and put options can be bought when volatility is low [19] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 300,000 yuan/ton (-0.60%), and LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 2.50%. The import loss improved slightly [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2603 - 2604 decreased, while those of 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603 increased [1] - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports, SMM refined tin production, and average smelting start - up rate increased, while refined tin imports and exports decreased [1] - **Inventory**: SHEF, social, and LME inventories all increased [1] Nickel Industry - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose by 0.42%, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 2.15% [3] - **Electrowinning Nickel Costs**: The costs of integrated MHP and external - procurement methods decreased, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [3] - **New Energy Material Prices**: Battery - grade nickel sulfate price decreased by 0.32%, and battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.95% [3] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2601 - 2602, 2603 - 2604 increased, and that of 2602 - 2603 decreased [3] - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production increased slightly, imports decreased significantly, and SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME and bonded - area inventories decreased [3] Stainless Steel Industry - **Prices and Basis**: 304/2B stainless steel prices were stable or slightly decreased, and the spot - futures spread increased by 9.78% [4] - **Raw Material Prices**: Most raw material prices were stable, and the 8 - 12% high - grade nickel - iron price decreased slightly [4] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603 decreased, and those of 2603 - 2604 increased [4] - **Fundamentals**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, imports increased, exports decreased, and social inventories increased [4] Lithium Industry - **Prices and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.48%, and lithium spodumene concentrate price increased by 2.13% [7] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601 decreased, and those of 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603 increased [7] - **Fundamentals**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased, and in October, demand, imports, and exports increased [7] - **Inventory**: In October, total and downstream lithium carbonate inventories decreased, and smelter inventories decreased slightly [7] Zinc Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.36%, and the import loss improved [10] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601 decreased, and those of 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604 increased [10] - **Fundamentals**: In November, refined zinc production decreased, in October, imports decreased, and exports increased significantly. The start - up rates of primary processing industries were basically stable [10] - **Inventory**: Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased [10] Copper Industry - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.36%, and the refined - scrap copper spread increased by 13.03% [12] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602 increased, and that of 2602 - 2603 decreased [12] - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production and imports decreased. The start - up rates of copper rod production decreased [12] - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased, and LME and COMEX inventories increased [12] Aluminum Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased slightly, and the import loss improved [15] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604 increased [15] - **Fundamentals**: In November, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production decreased, and in October, electrolytic aluminum imports increased slightly and exports decreased [15] - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased, and LME inventory decreased slightly [15] Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices were stable, and most refined - scrap spreads decreased [16] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602 decreased, and that of 2602 - 2603 increased [16] - **Fundamentals**: In October, regenerated aluminum alloy production decreased, and primary aluminum alloy production increased. The start - up rates of regenerated aluminum alloy decreased, and that of primary aluminum alloy increased [16] - **Inventory**: Regenerated aluminum alloy social and daily inventories decreased [16] Industrial Silicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Most industrial silicon spot prices were stable, and the basis of some varieties decreased [17] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601 increased, and those of 2603 - 2604, 2604 - 2605 changed significantly [17] - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production decreased, especially in Yunnan and Sichuan. Organic silicon DMC production increased, and polysilicon production decreased [17] - **Inventory**: Xinjiang factory inventory increased slightly, and social inventory increased slightly [17] Polysilicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, and the N - type material basis decreased [19] - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main futures contract price increased by 2.15%, and the spreads of different contracts changed [19] - **Fundamentals**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon production decreased, imports increased slightly, and exports decreased. Silicon wafer production and demand decreased [19] - **Inventory**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased, and polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased significantly [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, ethylene glycol, urea, asphalt, soda ash [1][3][5] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX/PTA, methanol, natural gas [3][5] - **Bearish Rebound**: L, PP, glass [1][5] - **Bearish Continuation**: Soda ash [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply surplus in the off - season dominates. Geopolitical tensions ease, and prices are under pressure. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions [1][8]. - **LPG**: Saudi Arabia raises CP contract price, but the market has priced it in. There is short - term correction pressure. Consider buying put options [1]. - **L**: Cost support improves, but supply is sufficient, and demand weakens after November. Close short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PP**: 12 - month CP quote rises, providing cost support. Supply is under pressure, and there is a high de - stocking pressure. Close short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PVC**: Chlor - alkali profit is compressed. Social inventory is high, but there is low - valuation support. Consider short - term long positions based on capital dynamics and long - term long positions after inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PX/PTA**: Processing fees are low, supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and downstream demand is good. Consider going long on dips [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply pressure may ease with future device maintenance, but there is a cumulative inventory expectation in December. Lack of upward drivers, consider short positions on rebounds [3]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory is decreasing, but supply pressure is still high. Consider going long on 05 contract on dips [3]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is large, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas. Consider short positions on rebounds [3]. - **Natural Gas**: Entering the consumption peak season, demand is supported, and prices are likely to rise [5]. - **Asphalt**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are under pressure. Continue to hold short positions [5]. - **Glass**: Pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans. Short - term may be strong, but long - term is bearish [5]. - **Soda Ash**: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is in a long - term high - production cycle, and demand is weak. Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread and wait for a rebound to go short [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On November 27, WTI decreased by 0.17%, Brent decreased by 0.78%, and SC increased by 1.30% [7]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply surplus in the off - season, and geopolitical tensions ease [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply: US oil rig count decreases, and Mexican oil production declines. Demand: OPEC expects global oil demand to increase in 2025 and 2026. Inventory: US crude and refined product inventories increase [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [450 - 460] [10]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On November 28, the PG main contract closed at 4361 yuan/ton, up 2.16% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is linked to crude oil, downstream demand is resilient, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase the rise, buy put options. Pay attention to the range of PG [4350 - 4450] [13]. 3.3 L - **Market Review**: L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, but supply is sufficient, and demand weakens after November [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6900] [18]. 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: 12 - month CP quote rises, supply is under pressure, and there is a high de - stocking pressure [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] [22]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Chlor - alkali profit is compressed, social inventory is high, but there is low - valuation support [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions based on capital dynamics and long - term long positions after inventory de - stocking. Pay attention to the range of V [4500 - 4700] [26]. 3.6 PX/PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 4752 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Processing fees are low, supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and downstream demand is good. There is a cumulative inventory expectation in December [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA [4650 - 4740] [29]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: Not explicitly mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic coal - based ethylene glycol device starts to increase, but future integrated device maintenance will ease supply pressure. There is a cumulative inventory expectation in December [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3850 - 3920] [32]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Review**: Not explicitly mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Taicang spot strengthens, port inventory decreases, supply pressure is high, and demand improves [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to pay attention to going long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the range of MA [2105 - 2145] [38]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Review**: URO5 closed at 1743 yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is large, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas, and inventory is high [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR [1640 - 1680] [41]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 27, the NG main contract closed at 4.850 dollars/million British thermal units, up 6.41% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: EU bans Russian gas imports, entering the consumption peak season, and demand is supported [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gas prices are likely to rise. Pay attention to the range of NG [4.680 - 5.000] [45]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 28, the BU main contract closed at 2996 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [48]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is linked to crude oil, supply is sufficient, and demand is in the off - season [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [50]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Review**: FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton [53]. - **Basic Logic**: Multiple production lines plan cold - repair in December, but demand is weak [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to cold - repair implementation. Short - term may be strong, long - term is bearish. Pay attention to the range of FG [1020 - 1070] [54]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA2601 closed at 1239 yuan/ton [57]. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is in a long - term high - production cycle, and demand is weak [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread and wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of SA [1140 - 1180] [58].

消费者 羿女士 ：孩子正在发育的年龄，长得也比较快，我想买一件绒子含量90%的白鸭绒羽绒服，但是市面上价格会比较高，大概也要一千多元。家里 有大人的旧羽绒服，翻新价格也就在两三百元、三四百元，这样比较实惠。 随着气温逐渐下降，羽绒服迎来销售旺季。今年羽绒服的价格如何？ 在南京浦口区一家销售羽绒服的门店，记者看到，白鸭绒绒子含量90%的短款羽绒服售价899元起，白鸭绒绒子含量90%的长款羽绒服售价1099元起。 江苏南京某羽绒服门店负责人 武景琳 ：去年我们家短款的90%白鸭羽绒服价格约为799元，今年涨幅约为20%。 导购员表示，涨价未明显抑制消费需求，11月以来门店销量同比增长10%，周末单日销售额突破3万元。其中，绒子含量高、充绒量足的保暖厚款羽绒服 最受青睐，部分热门尺码已断货。 随后，记者又走访了商场内一些时尚运动品牌门店，这类门店销售的羽绒服以白鸭绒绒子含量80%-90%为主，充绒量根据款式不同在100克-300克之间， 价格在1000元以上。 走访中记者发现，随着羽绒服价格的上涨，也让不少消费者把目光投向了旧衣翻新业务。 安徽六安：羽绒供不应求 加工厂满负荷运转 安徽六安，是我国四大羽绒集散地之一 ...

锡产业期现日报 テ 广发期货 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年11月28日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 涨跌幅 单位 现值 前值 涨跌 301800 295200 eeoo 2.24% 250 250 0 0.00% 元/吨 302300 295700 6600 2.23% 185.00 135.00 50.00 37.04% 美元/吨 现值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 前值 -7.90% -17717.50 -16419.72 -1297.78 元/吨 7.85 7.89 - - 现值 前值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 -740 -650 -90 -13.85% -360 -480 120 25.00% 元/吨 -90 -120 30 25.00% 370 -30 400 1333.33% 基本面数据(月度) | 指标 | 现值 | 前値 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10月锡矿进口 | 11632 | 8714 | 2918 | 33.49% | 世 | | SMM精锡10月产量 | 16090 | 1051 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美国数据仍支持降息，俄乌问题再次生变，日元反复不确定较多，黄金有支撑。建 | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 议黄金长线交易为主，避免陷入情绪交易。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持 | | ★ | | 续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 高弹性白银 2025 年大涨幅度超 70%，短期特朗普 AI 创世纪计划批准，均对白银有 | | 白银 | 长线持有 | 利。长期来看白银基本面来看全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽松货币 | | ★ | | | | | | 投放提供流动性。12000 附近支撑较强。长线多单持有 | | 铜 | | 宏观暖风频吹，美联储 12 月降息概率升至 85%，国内 12 月初政治局会议临近，市 | | | 长线持有 | 场对政策刺激预期走高，国内淡季去库，铜价格中枢稳步上移，建议回调逢低试多， | | ★ | | 中长期，铜依旧看多。 | | | | 宏观情绪缓和，国内淡季去库，出口积极，现货逢低采购提供价格支撑，短期锌宽 | | 锌 | 承压 | 幅震荡，受 ...