每经AI快讯，9月23日，法国9月制造业PMI初值为48.1，预期50.1，前值50.4。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][13][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the expectation of interest rate cuts has materialized, leading to a slight decline in metal prices. The macroeconomic environment appears favorable, with signs of recovery in the manufacturing sector [7][13][47]. - The industrial metal prices have shown a general decline, with specific weekly changes noted for LME and SHFE metals [5][27]. - The report emphasizes that the basic metals sector is experiencing a seasonal recovery, particularly in aluminum and copper, despite some pressures on prices and demand [11][48]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market has declined, with the non-ferrous metal sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.30% [20][24]. - The non-ferrous metal index closed at 6522.39 points, down 4.02% week-on-week, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.71 percentage points [6][20]. Macroeconomic Factors - China's industrial value-added growth slowed to 5.2% year-on-year in August, down from 5.7% previously, with non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling showing a growth of 9.1% [8][37]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025, aimed at addressing weak employment and inflation pressures [7][41]. - The Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 26.10 in September, indicating improved economic outlook [9][45]. - The global manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory in August, rising to 50.9, the largest increase since June 2024 [10][47]. Basic Metals Analysis - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum industry maintained production capacity at 44.085 million tons, with a weekly production of 845,500 tons. The current aluminum price is 20,840 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 1.00% [11][50]. - **Alumina**: The market remains oversupplied, with spot prices continuing to decline. The current alumina price is 3,033 CNY/ton, down 1.30% [13][14]. - **Copper**: Supply remains stable, but demand is weak, leading to global inventory accumulation. Domestic electrolytic copper production is 238,000 tons, with a slight year-on-year increase [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Processing fees have risen, but domestic inventories continue to accumulate, with a weekly production of 129,600 tons [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting that the seasonal recovery in basic metals, particularly in copper and aluminum, is expected to strengthen prices despite current fluctuations [13][17][48].

Core Insights - This week, the market will experience a series of important data releases and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, with a particular focus on the U.S. August Core PCE Price Index, which will directly influence the Fed's interest rate path for the remainder of the year [1][13]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Following last week's Federal Reserve decision, officials will be making public speeches, with key figures like New York Fed President Williams and St. Louis Fed President Bullard discussing the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy [3]. - The U.S. August Core PCE Price Index is expected to maintain a growth rate around 3%, which would not alter expectations for two rate cuts by the end of the year [11]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Consumer Confidence - On Tuesday, various countries will release their September Manufacturing PMI preliminary values, with the Eurozone's August Manufacturing PMI revised up to 50.7, indicating potential economic expansion [4]. - The Eurozone's September Consumer Confidence Index is anticipated to remain negative but may show signs of improvement [3]. Group 3: International Economic Data - On Wednesday, Australia's August CPI is expected to remain stable, influencing future interest rate expectations, with a potential rate cut from 3.60% to 3.35% by November [8]. - Germany's September IFO Business Climate Index is projected to show a rebound for the seventh consecutive month [8]. Group 4: Additional Economic Releases - The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain its interest rate at zero during its upcoming decision, following three months of stable inflation [9]. - The U.S. second-quarter GDP final value is projected at an annualized rate of 3.3%, driven by strong consumer spending and increased investment in AI, which may lead to further revisions [11].

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates an increase in interest rate cut expectations, contributing to a favorable macroeconomic environment [3] - The investment recommendation is to maintain an "overweight" rating for the industry, as the trend continues [3] Economic Overview - In August, China's export value increased by 4.4% year-on-year, while CPI decreased by 0.40% [5] - The U.S. CPI remained stable at 2.9% year-on-year, with core CPI also steady at 3.1% [5] - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7, indicating a return to expansion [6] - The global manufacturing PMI increased to 50.9, marking the largest growth since June 2024 [6] Metal Market Insights Basic Metals - Industrial metal prices have generally risen, with the LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc showing weekly increases of 1.7%, 3.8%, 1.6%, and 3.4% respectively [3] - The domestic aluminum processing average operating rate increased by 0.4% to 62.1% [7] Aluminum - The electrolytic aluminum industry maintained a production capacity of 44.085 million tons, with a weekly output of 845,500 tons [6][8] - Aluminum prices have risen to 21,050 CNY/ton, with a profit margin of 3,765 CNY/ton [6][8] Alumina - The operating capacity ratio of alumina to electrolytic aluminum increased to 2.21, indicating an expanding surplus [8] - Alumina prices decreased to 3,073 CNY/ton, with a profit margin reduction of 28.58% [9] Copper - Domestic electrolytic copper weekly output reached 238,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 23,100 tons [10] - Global copper inventories rose to 681,400 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 45,800 tons [10] Zinc - The domestic refined zinc weekly output was 131,700 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.73% [11] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory reached 154,200 tons, continuing to rise and reaching a five-year high [11]

Group 1 - The macro growth factor continues to rise, while inflation indicators show a weakening rebound, with domestic CPI turning negative at -0.4% and PPI's decline narrowing to -2.9%, indicating persistent internal demand issues [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are driving upward global liquidity expectations, benefiting Asian equity markets, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 5.94% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.31% [4][9] - The A-share market shows a preference for growth styles, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.48%, while small-cap indices outperform large-cap blue chips [4] Group 2 - Recommendations for asset allocation include favoring high-grade credit bonds in the bond market, adjusting duration flexibly, and focusing on bank and insurance sector movements [5] - In the overseas equity market, the report suggests monitoring interest rate-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar and significantly raised interest rate cut expectations [5] - For gold, it is recommended to increase allocations to gold and silver as they are core assets during the interest rate cut cycle, with expectations for Shanghai gold to break previous highs [5] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall liquidity environment remains supportive for market valuation recovery and structural trends, with a significant decrease in average daily trading volume in the A-share market [56] - The A-share valuation levels have increased, with the price-to-earnings ratio rising to 50.38 times and the price-to-book ratio reaching 5.60 times, suggesting that market expectations for future corporate earnings may be overly optimistic [60] - The report highlights that the earnings expectations for A-shares are weaker than historical averages, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.3% and revenue growth rate of 5.9% [61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is pricing in the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times this year due to factors such as the under - expected US non - farm data and lower - than - expected PPI, which weakens the US dollar index and boosts metal prices. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" season is coming, and the marginal demand for non - ferrous metals may improve to some extent, but the upward space still requires the positive resonance of each variety's fundamentals and the macro - environment [3][11]. - For copper, the price is expected to rise, and the price center may move up. For aluminum, it is recommended to be short - term long. For zinc, it can be considered to participate in the market with a bullish spread at low prices or be slightly long at low stages. For lead, it is advisable to hold long positions and consider a wide - range option double - selling strategy. For nickel and stainless steel, they can be slightly long at low prices [3][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro - logic**: The expectation of interest rate cuts is rising. The weak US employment data and the continuous slowdown of the ISM manufacturing data have raised concerns about the US economic growth slowdown and recession. However, the moderate inflation has strengthened the positive impact of interest rate cuts. The non - ferrous metals market is fluctuating and rising, and the leading varieties are driving the overall sector to turn warmer [10]. - **Single - side Strategy for Each Metal** - **Copper**: The demand in industries such as electricity, data centers, and new energy vehicles is strong. The domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline. The price is expected to rise, with a short - term upper pressure range of 81000 - 82000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 79000 - 80000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long at low prices [3][12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The supply and demand of the aluminum industry chain are both changing. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is shifting, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to be short - term long, with an upper pressure range of 21300 - 21700 and a lower support range of 20200 - 20500. For alumina, it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously, with an upper pressure range of 3500 - 3700 and a lower support range of 2700 - 2900 [5][13]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The downstream procurement is relatively light, and the inventory is slightly increasing. It is recommended to participate in the market with a bullish spread at low prices or be slightly long at low stages, with an upper pressure range of 22800 - 23000 and a lower support range of 21800 - 22000 [6]. - **Lead**: The supply of primary and secondary lead is decreasing, and the spot inventory is slightly decreasing. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a short - term support range of 16500 - 16600 and an upper pressure range of 17200 - 17400. A wide - range option double - selling strategy can also be considered [6]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel price rebounds due to the uncertainty of the Indonesian mining end. It is recommended to be slightly long at low prices, with an upper pressure range of 125000 - 128000 yuan and a lower support range of 118000 - 120000 yuan. Stainless steel is recommended to be slightly long at low prices, with a support range of 12700 - 12800 and an upper pressure range of 13000 - 13200 [6]. - **Arbitrage Strategy** - **Copper 2510 - 2511 Contracts**: It is recommended to conduct a positive spread due to the strengthening of the domestic copper fundamentals and the expected interest rate cut [15]. - **Alumina 2502 - 2509 Contracts**: It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread as the near - strong and far - weak structure of alumina has returned [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and weekly price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, tin, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and casting aluminum alloy [15]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report presents the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and lead [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Key Data Tracking of the Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain - It provides a series of data charts related to the non - ferrous metals industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, production capacity, and开工率 for each metal [21][23][32]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report includes various charts related to the arbitrage of non - ferrous metals, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis spreads, and spreads between different contracts for each metal [74][76][78]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options - It provides charts of historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various non - ferrous metals, and gives corresponding option strategies [93][94][96].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant adjustments in the U.S. tariff policy, including exemptions for certain metals and the inclusion of silicon products in the tax list, which will have a substantial impact on trade dynamics and manufacturing sectors in the U.S. [2][4] Tariff Adjustments - President Trump announced exemptions for metals such as graphite, tungsten, uranium, and gold bars from global tariffs, while silicon products will be taxed [2][4] - The new tariff policy will take effect next Monday and includes various key product categories, such as aircraft parts, pharmaceuticals, and specialty spices that cannot be produced domestically [4][6] Trade Deficit and Import Surge - In July, the U.S. trade deficit widened to $78.3 billion, a 33% increase month-over-month, marking the highest level in four months [9] - The surge in imports was primarily driven by industrial goods, with gold imports reaching a record high of $10.5 billion [9][10] - The increase in imports is attributed to businesses stockpiling goods ahead of anticipated tariff hikes, leading to a significant rise in overall import volumes [9][10] Manufacturing Sector Challenges - The U.S. manufacturing sector has contracted for six consecutive months, with the PMI rising slightly to 48.7 in August, still below the neutral mark of 50 [12] - Many manufacturers report that the current business environment is worse than during the 2007-2009 recession, largely due to the uncertainties created by the tariff policies [12][13] - The automotive industry is particularly affected, with companies facing high tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, leading to significant profit impacts, such as Ford's projected $2 billion loss due to tariffs [13][14]

Report Summary Market Focus - China held a grand ceremony to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War on September 3. China's economic sentiment generally continued to expand. The Fed's Beige Book reported little or no change in economic activity in most US regions, with rising prices and little or no net change in overall employment. On September 4, US President Trump signed an executive order to implement the US-Japan trade agreement, imposing a 15% benchmark tariff on almost all Japanese imports and providing separate industry-specific treatments for automobiles, auto parts, and aerospace products [5]. Key Data - China's official manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in August were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, up 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points month-on-month. Industries like general equipment and railway, ship, and aerospace equipment had production and operation activity expectation indices above 58%. The US job openings in July dropped from 7.36 million in June to 1.181 million, a 10 - month low, far below the expected 7.382 million. The US ADP employment in August increased by only 54,000, well below the expected 65,000. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August rose from 49.8 in July to 50.7, a three - year high, and the composite PMI reached a 12 - month high [5]. Main Views - Steel prices continued to decline this week due to weaker coking coal price support and continuous steel inventory accumulation. Despite the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts overseas, domestic steel was in the off - season with increasing inventory, leading to a weak performance of ferrous metals. Affected by previous production restrictions, steel mill output and demand decreased, with accelerated inventory accumulation of rebar and increased hot - rolled coil inventory. After the steel mills resumed production on September 4, supply - demand pressure might intensify. However, cost support from the improved supply - demand structure of the cost side would limit the decline. With the release of the growth - stabilizing plan for the electronic information manufacturing industry on Friday, market expectations improved. Steel prices were expected to follow coking coal, with short - term fluctuations to find bottom support and wait for signals of improved peak - season demand. Iron ore was relatively strong in ferrous metals supported by the expectation of steel mill复产. Although iron ore prices dropped at the beginning of the week due to the decline in coking coal prices, the expectation of steel mill复产 and inventory replenishment was strong. Despite a significant drop in hot metal production this period, steel mills were expected to be motivated to produce with high profits. However, with weakening downstream steel demand, increasing inventory, and rising iron ore shipments, continuous upward movement of iron ore prices was under pressure, and it was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5]. Bull - Bear Focus Bull - Bear Factors for Rebar - Bull factors: improved manufacturing sentiment in August, rising expectation of Fed rate cuts, and the introduction of growth - stabilizing plans for ten industries. Bear factors: expected increase in production after steel mill复产, a significant drop in steel demand, and accelerated inventory accumulation of rebar and increased hot - rolled coil inventory [8]. Bull - Bear Factors for Iron Ore - Bull factors: improved manufacturing sentiment in August, rising expectation of Fed rate cuts, the introduction of growth - stabilizing plans for ten industries, and the expectation of inventory replenishment driven by steel mill复产. Bear factors: a significant drop in hot metal production, seasonal decline in downstream steel demand, and increasing iron ore shipments [11]. Data Analysis Rebar - Spot prices continued to decline, and the basis weakened. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was at a relatively high level [24][40]. Iron Ore - Spot prices were firm, and the basis converged to near par. Iron ore shipments globally and from Australia and Brazil, as well as arrivals at 45 ports, showed certain trends. Hot metal production of 247 steel enterprises decreased, and iron ore import inventory and consumption also had corresponding changes [43][46][52]. Market Outlook - Steel prices were expected to follow coking coal, with short - term fluctuations to find bottom support and wait for signals of improved peak - season demand. Iron ore was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to upward pressure from weakening downstream demand, increasing inventory, and rising shipments [59][61].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decline in South Korea's petrochemical product exports, which fell by 18.7% year-on-year to $3.38 billion in August, while semiconductor and automobile exports reached record highs [1] - Overall exports from South Korea grew by only 1.3% year-on-year to $58.4 billion in August, with imports decreasing by 4.0% to $51.9 billion, resulting in a narrowed trade surplus of $6.51 billion [1] - Semiconductor exports increased by 27.1% year-on-year to $15.1 billion, and automobile exports reached $5.5 billion, marking a historical peak, with growth seen in hybrid, electric, and used car exports [1] Group 2 - The imposition of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum products by the Trump administration has negatively impacted related exports, and the additional 15% tariff on South Korean goods implemented on August 7 has further strained export performance [1] - The manufacturing PMI for South Korea slightly rose to 48.3 in August, indicating continued contraction in output and new orders, with businesses reporting declines in production and sales due to domestic economic weakness and tariff pressures [1]

Report Overall Information - Report Title: Macro Financial Data Daily Report [3] - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [4] - Researcher: Zheng Yuting from the Macro Financial Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4] - Futures Practicing License Number: F3074875; Investment Consulting License Number: Z0017779 [4] Market Conditions Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.31% with a -0.01bp change; DR007 at 1.44% with a 0.40bp change [4] - GC001 closed at 1.01% with a 1.50bp change; GC007 at 1.44% with a -2.50bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55% with a 0.10bp change; LPR 5-year remained at 3.50% [4] - 1-year treasury bond closed at 1.37% with a 0.23bp change; 5-year at 1.60% with a -2.52bp change [4] - 10-year treasury bond closed at 1.81% with a -1.69bp change; 10-year US treasury bond at 4.28% with a 5.00bp change [4] - The central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 416.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan [4] - This week, there are 2.2731 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market, and 1 trillion yuan of 91-day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] Stock Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4365, down 2.12%; the SSE 50 at 2910, down 1.71%; the CSI 500 at 6698.4, down 2.48%; the CSI 1000 at 7206.9, down 1.46% [6] - The trading volume of the two stock markets reached 2.5443 trillion yuan, an increase of 180.2 billion yuan from the previous day [6] - Industry sectors mostly declined, with consumer sectors such as department stores, beauty care, food and beverages, and tourism hotels leading the gains, while semiconductor, communication equipment, electronic chemicals, small metals, aerospace, and electronic components sectors leading the losses [6] - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased across the board, with IF volume up 9.4%, IH volume up 17.8%, IC volume up 16.8%, and IM volume up 13.3% [6] Core Views - Recently, the risk aversion sentiment of funds has risen, and some funds have chosen to take profits, leading to the adjustment of stock indexes [6] - Domestically, the marginal changes are limited recently, and the incremental policies are in a relative vacuum state. The latest August China Manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly to 49.4%, indicating that the economy still has certain resilience [6] - Overseas, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased [6] - Strategically, the short-term adjustment of stock indexes may bring opportunities for long positions [6] Futures Basis Information - The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are provided, with specific values and annualized rates noted [6]