证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 10 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：憧憬 2015 重现 | | | 7 月 10 日，"反内卷"叙事余音未尽，棚改重启预期成为新的主线，股市普涨，债市齐跌，部分商品迎来强势 反弹行情。 国内资产方面，股市，大盘稳中有升，上证指数、沪深 300、中证红利分别上涨 0.48%、0.47%、0.62%；科 技很快仍在调整，科创 50、恒生科技下跌 0.32%、0.29%；小微盘行情相对平淡，中证 2000 下跌 0.05%，万得 微盘股指上涨 0.01%。债市，10 年、30 年国债收益率分别上行 1.45bp、1.60bp 至 1.66%、1.88%；10 年、30年 国债期货主力合约下跌 0.16%、0.36%。 海外方面，美国新一轮关税交易情绪整体进入缓和阶段，美元指数延续震荡走势，黄金价格亦维持窄幅波 动，日内振幅控制在 0-0.5%区间。不过，随着 8 日特朗普提出对进口铜加征 50%关税，铜价波动较大，COMEX 铜价昨日下跌 2.5%后，今日开盘后明显反弹，涨幅一度超过 2%，LME 铜亦表现偏强，日内上涨 ...

在"反内卷"加速推进的背景下，近期多晶硅期货持续大涨，成为期货市场上最火热的品种。 7月10日，多晶硅期货大涨5.5%，突破4万元大关，主力合约收盘报41345元/吨，触及近三个月新高，成交量更 是高达101.5万手，创下历史新高。 随着多晶硅期货波动的加大，7月10日晚间，广期所发布提保扩板政策，一方面给市场适当降温，另一方面有 助于防控风险。 多晶硅期货突破4万元大关 7月10日，SMM多晶硅价格指数为44.8元/千克，N型多晶硅致密/复投料报价43—49元/千克，颗粒硅报价41— 46元/千克；7月8日，SMMN型多晶硅价格指数为38.7元/千克，N型复投料为39元/千克，N型致密料为38元/千 克。 年初，因N型技术需求增长，多晶硅价格一度企稳；4月，经历了一轮抢装潮后，产能逐步释放，需求却断崖 式下跌，多晶硅主力合约一度跌至31000元一线，甚至跌破行业成本线，成为光伏产业链中压力最大的一环。 自7月以来，随着"反内卷"政策的持续发酵，此前"跌跌不休"的多晶硅期货突然爆发，走出一轮大涨行情，尤 其是7月2日、8日更是触及涨停板。 7月10日，多晶硅期货主力合约大涨5.5%，一举突破4万元大关，主力合 ...

图为四川都江堰景区。陈炳衡摄 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张蓓 见习记者 陈炳衡 北京报道 "旅游行业'内卷'情况严重，企业已经到了必须自救的时候。"7月8日，炬蜂文旅总经理卓艺在接受《华 夏时报》记者采访时说。 7 月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依 法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出，释放出强烈的 "反内 卷" 信号。这一信号为多个行业的健康发展指明了方向，旅游业作为国民经济的重要组成部分，其长期 存在的问题也因此备受关注。 近年来，随着大众旅游时代的深度推进，旅游业已成为国民经济的重要支柱，但"内卷" 这一现象也随 之愈发凸显。从旅行社的线路扎堆到酒店的价格血拼，从营销的信息轰炸到游客的体验落差，旅游 业"内卷"不仅挤压着企业的生存空间，更在悄然改变着游客的出行选择与体验感知。 卓艺告诉记者，"企业需要打造自己的特色，才能避免被拖入价格战的内卷泥潭。" 低价竞争助长低质产品 旅游业内卷并非单一环节的问题，而是渗透在产品、价格、营销等多个维度，形成了系统性的同质化竞 争困局。旅游产品的同质化是"内卷 ...

文：国金宏观宋雪涛/ 联系人孙永乐 预计三、四季度CPI同比为-0.1%、0%；PPI同比为-2.5%、-2.1%；GDP平减指数 为-0.9%、-0.6%。 一、 CPI的下半年展望 相比于食品和原油价格对CPI的拖累，年初以来核心CPI震荡上行，6月核心CPI同比0.7%，创下2024年5月以来新高，核心商品取代服务成为核心CPI 的主要支撑。 一方面，随着服务消费完成初步修复，服务消费增速小幅回落，2025年1-5月服务零售同比5.2%，低于2023、2024年的20%、6.2%。需求端增速回 落叠加供给端的修复，2025年1-6月服务CPI同比均值为0.4%，仅拉动CPI同比增长0.17个百分点（服务占CPI权重的45%左右），显著低于2024年同 期0.9%的增速，也低于核心CPI增速。 另一方面，受益于以旧换新政策以及居民内生动力修复，今年以来商品消费增速明显上行，1-5月商品零售同比增长5.1%，带动核心商品CPI同比震荡 上行至6月的1%左右，拉动CPI同比增长0.33个百分点（核心商品占比在34%左右），显著高于补贴之前的商品价格走势。 旅游价格明显走弱，一方面是国内文旅消费修复进入瓶颈期。 ...

市场概况： 三大指数小幅上涨，沪指重回3500点上方，沪指涨0.48%，深成指涨0.47%，创业板指涨0.22%。沪深两 市全天成交额1.49万亿，较上个交易日缩量110亿。 正文 煤炭ETF（515220）今日收涨1.77%，日K线角度录得三根阳线，近4个交易日大额资金连续流入。 总的来说，2025年下半年随着季节性需求提升，产量增长放缓及进口煤持续负增长，预计煤价有望筑底 回升，对行业的悲观预期或将扭转。伴随"反内卷"事件共同驱动下，煤价反弹支撑力较强。感兴趣的小 伙伴可以关注全市场唯一品种的煤炭ETF（515220），把握煤炭行业在政策引导下需求旺季的景气度阶 上行的投资机遇。 今日光伏50ETF上午快速上涨后全天震荡，收涨1.94%。 来源：Wind 7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议，聚焦全国统一大市场建设推进工作，明确提出"五统一、一 开放"的纵深建设基本要求。会议直指"内卷式"竞争治理，强调要加快建立健全基础制度规则，破除地 方保护和市场分割，打通市场准入退出、要素配置等方面制约经济循环的卡点堵点，对"内卷式"竞争开 展综合整治。 7月5日，中国天气网报道"今年以来最强高温过程持续影响，多地 ...

Economic Indicators - As of June 2025, PPI has experienced 33 consecutive months of year-on-year negative growth, while CPI has remained below 1% for 28 months[3] - The GDP deflator index has shown negative growth for 8 consecutive quarters, with an estimated -1% for Q2 2025[3] - For Q3 and Q4 2025, CPI is projected to grow at -0.1% and 0%, while PPI is expected to decline by -2.5% and -2.1% respectively[3] GDP Growth Projections - The actual GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 is likely to be around 5.3-5.4%, requiring a second-half growth of 4.6-4.7% to meet the annual target[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate needs to stabilize above 4% for the year[3] CPI Insights - Core CPI has shown an upward trend, reaching 0.7% year-on-year in June 2025, the highest since May 2024[5] - Service retail sales growth from January to May 2025 was 5.2%, significantly lower than the 20% and 6.2% growth rates in 2023 and 2024 respectively[5] - The contribution of service CPI to overall CPI growth was only 0.17 percentage points, much lower than the previous year's 0.9%[5] Food and Energy Price Trends - Food prices, particularly pork, are expected to face high base pressure in Q3, with a projected negative growth in pork prices due to supply chain factors[24][26] - Oil prices are anticipated to decline further, with Brent crude averaging around $66 per barrel in the second half of 2025, leading to a significant drag on CPI growth[35][36] Risks and Uncertainties - Global economic recovery may fall short of expectations, impacting domestic price levels and potentially leading to further declines in export and commodity prices[4] - The effectiveness of industrial policy adjustments and "anti-involution" measures remains uncertain, which could prolong price pressures in certain sectors[4]

Core Viewpoint - The construction industry is moving towards a consensus on reducing production and limiting competition to protect profits, driven by the "anti-involution" policy [2][4][9] Group 1: Industry Initiatives - A joint initiative titled "Proposal for Building Industry Party Organizations and Party Members to Lead in Creating a Clean and Positive Industry Environment" has been issued by 33 construction enterprises, aiming to resist "involution" competition [2][4] - The initiative emphasizes the importance of technological innovation for transformation and upgrading, focusing on intrinsic and long-term value rather than blind expansion and excessive debt [2][4][6] Group 2: Policy Context - The government has been actively addressing "involution" through various measures, including the revision of the Anti-Unfair Competition Law and promoting capacity exit to combat disorderly competition [3][4] - The construction industry is responding to these policies by initiating capacity reduction actions and optimizing product structures to stabilize prices and enhance competitiveness [3][4] Group 3: Market Conditions - The cement industry is experiencing severe price wars, leading to significant losses, with 11 out of 20 listed companies reporting profits and the rest incurring losses in the first half of 2024 [5] - Associations in regions like Zhejiang and Guangdong are advocating for a reduction in production and a halt to price wars to achieve quality-driven growth [5] Group 4: Strategic Focus - The construction industry is at a critical juncture, with a focus on compliance and risk management to adapt to changing market conditions and promote high-quality development [7][8] - Companies are encouraged to prioritize innovation and sustainable practices over mere scale and speed, aiming for a transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green development [7][8]

| | | | 11/11/11 | | 2025年07月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ★☆★ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證件 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅鉄 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面大幅走强。 本周螺纹表需、产量均小幅回落，库存继续缓慢下降。 热卷需求继续下滑，产量也有所回落，库存继续小 幅累积。铁水产量整体维持相对高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，关注淡季需求承接能力。从下游行业看，基建回 暖缺乏持续性，地产销售低位徘徊，投资、新开工等指标继续大幅下滑，制造业 ...

2025.07. 10 本文字数：2189，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 马一凡 不盲目扩张及过度负债，坚决抵制违法转包、违规分包、围标串标，坚决抵制"内卷式"竞争——近 日，33家建筑工程行业巨头发布倡议书联手"反内卷"，对行业积弊坚决"说不"。 有建筑行业资深从业者表示，建筑工程业过去长期存在低价中标、带资承包、垫资施工、超长账期的 问题，如今行业联手"反内卷"有利于优胜劣汰、提升长远经营质量。 此外，作为上下游产业的建筑材料行业近期也有一系列"反内卷"动作，如水泥行业将切实推动熟料生 产线备案产能与实际产能的统一，推动行业转型升级；防水建材多家头部企业发出"涨价函"，以缓解 成本上行和利润微薄问题。 抵制行业乱象 7月7日，国务院国资委党委和全国工商联党组共同在北京举办高质量党建引领建筑行业高质量发展 主题活动暨行业倡议发布会。 除了建筑工程行业，近期作为建筑上下游的建材行业也有不少细分行业或企业响应"反内卷"号召。 在这场会议上，33家建筑类中央企业、地方国企以及民营企业基层党组织联合发出一份《关于号召 建筑行业党组织和广大党员在营造风清气正行业环境中走在前作表率的倡议书》（以下简称"倡议 ...

Group 1 - The express delivery industry in China continues to maintain high growth, with the volume of express deliveries exceeding 100 billion pieces by July 9, 2023, 35 days earlier than expected for 2024 [2] - The rapid growth is attributed to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, particularly the "old-for-new" replacement policy for consumer goods [2][3] - The express delivery sector has achieved a significant scale economy effect, enhancing its ability to drive industrial and economic growth [2] Group 2 - The integration of the express delivery industry with manufacturing and other sectors has expanded its service scope and development space, with over 1,600 key projects generating more than 1 million yuan in revenue [2] - The widespread application of technologies such as 5G, IoT, and AI is accelerating the intelligent upgrade of the express delivery industry [3] - The industry is facing intense competition, leading to ongoing price wars that have affected service quality [3][4] Group 3 - In the first five months of 2025, the average price of express delivery services was 7.5 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%, with the first quarter seeing an average price of 7.7 yuan, down 8.8% [4] - Despite calls to avoid price wars, companies are compelled to lower prices to gain market share, significantly impacting firms like SF Express, which reported a 3.4% decline in average revenue per ticket [4] Group 4 - Recent government initiatives aim to combat "involutionary" competition in the express delivery sector, emphasizing the need for improved industry regulation and service quality [5]