1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given documents. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Short - term: Copper prices may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to CL premium changes and LME inventory changes. The main contract is supported at 99000 - 100000 yuan/ton. [1] - Medium - to long - term: Bullish on the upward shift of the price bottom center due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. [1] Zinc - Short - term: The downside space of zinc prices may be limited. The support comes from the tightening of domestic zinc mines, and the pressure comes from the negative feedback on the demand side. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes. The main contract is supported at around 24000 yuan/ton. [5] Aluminum - Alumina: Expected to continue wide - range fluctuations around the industry cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. [7] - Aluminum: Expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference operating range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. [7] Aluminum Alloy Expected to continue the high - level range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, import window changes, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival. [8] Nickel Expected to show a relatively strong shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 140000 - 150000 yuan/ton. [9] Stainless Steel Expected to have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 14000 - 15000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the news on the ore end and the improvement in demand. [13] Tin - Short - term: Prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. Hold existing long positions with caution. - Medium - to long - term: Adopt a low - buying strategy considering the low elasticity of the supply side and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race. [16] Industrial Silicon Expected to maintain price fluctuations, with the main price range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in demand - side production. [18] Polysilicon In the current weak demand situation, polysilicon faces the choice between production cuts or price cuts. The price may be supported at 48000 yuan/ton, and 45000 yuan/ton may also have support. Adopt a wait - and - see approach during the cooling - off period, and pay attention to future production cuts and downstream demand recovery. [19] Lithium Carbonate Expected to be relatively strong in the short term. Be cautious in short - term operations, and be aware of high - valuation and liquidity risks when chasing up prices. [21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 100830 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference is 2865 yuan/ton, up 5.22%. [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, up 6.80% month - on - month; imports were 26.02 million tons, down 4.02% month - on - month. [1] Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24620 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The import loss is - 2052 yuan/ton. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, down 7.24% month - on - month; imports were 0.88 million tons, down 51.94% month - on - month. [5] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24110 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum is - 1919 yuan/ton. [7] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 378.10 million tons, up 3.97% month - on - month; imports were 18.92 million tons, up 28.77% month - on - month. [7] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24000 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum is 2919 yuan/ton, up 14.97%. [8] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month; the import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 9.31 million tons, up 27.19% month - on - month. [8] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 148550 yuan/ton, up 1.92%. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel is 112237 yuan/ton, up 1.09% month - on - month. [9] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in December was 31400 tons, up 26.10% month - on - month; imports were 23394 tons, up 84.63% month - on - month. [9] Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1043 yuan/nickel point, up 0.87%. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 176.32 million tons, up 0.92% month - on - month; exports were 40.53 million tons, up 13.18% month - on - month. [13] Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 420300 yuan/ton, up 4.23%. The import loss is - 6632.02 yuan/ton, up 13.60%. [16] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, tin ore imports were 17637 tons, up 16.81%; SMM refined tin production was 15950 tons, down 0.06%. [16] Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon is 9250 yuan/ton, unchanged. [18] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the national industrial silicon product output was 39.71 million tons, down 1.15% month - on - month. [18] Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 is 54000 yuan/kg, unchanged. The N - type silicon wafer - 210mm average price is 1.63 yuan/piece, down 1.21%. [19] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production is 2.05 million tons, down 4.65%. Monthly polysilicon imports are 0.19 million tons, up 77.50%. [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 171000 yuan/ton, up 3.95%. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF is 2214 US dollars/ton, up 3.94%. [21] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, up 4.04% month - on - month; demand was 130118 tons, down 2.50% month - on - month. [21]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing competition for critical minerals is intensifying, impacting market dynamics and pricing strategies in the lithium sector [2]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices, reaching 180,000 yuan/ton, signals a strong market rebound, driven by simultaneous tightening across three supply chains: reduced supply from Jiangxi and salt lakes, high overseas lithium spodumene transaction prices, and pre-holiday export and inventory buildup expectations [3][5]. - The focus of market discussions has shifted from resource availability in Jiangxi to the stability of the mining, processing, and tailings disposal compliance chain [6]. - Environmental and tailings disposal constraints in Jiangxi's lithium mica mining operations are tightening, raising concerns about potential production halts or reductions, particularly related to tailings issues [7]. - Seasonal maintenance at some lithium salt plants is expected to amplify supply contraction concerns, even if these actions are typically seasonal [8]. - There are signs of inventory depletion in the spot market, with total lithium carbonate inventory decreasing week-on-week [9]. Cost Factors - The recent auction of Wodgina's 5.49% lithium spodumene concentrate at a price of 16,852 yuan/ton indicates that marginal costs for lithium carbonate are approaching the 160,000 to 170,000 yuan/ton range, providing a clearer price anchor for futures amid supply uncertainties [10]. Demand Perspectives - At the 180,000 yuan/ton price level, there are diverging views on demand drivers. One perspective suggests that adjustments in export tax incentives are leading to pre-holiday inventory buildup, which is tightening spot market liquidity [11][12]. - Conversely, a more cautious viewpoint indicates that high prices and the seasonal lull may suppress proactive purchasing, suggesting that demand has not significantly expanded, with price increases driven more by supply-side factors [13]. - If post-holiday demand does not meet expectations and supply normalizes, inventory structures may rebalance [14]. - The price elasticity around 180,000 yuan is primarily influenced by supply certainty and spot market conditions, with demand determining the pace of market activity [15]. Structural Background - The current market dynamics are also influenced by a longer-term narrative of risk premiums associated with critical mineral competition [16]. - Recent actions by Nigeria's security and mining authorities to intercept illegal lithium transport highlight the increasing regulatory compliance and enforcement in resource-rich countries [17]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo has submitted a shortlist of state-owned mining assets, including lithium, to the U.S. for potential investment, indicating a strategic push for resource partnerships [18]. - The EU's free trade agreement with the South American Common Market is seen as a strategic move, although it faces legal and political uncertainties within the EU [19]. - These developments underscore that the availability of critical minerals is increasingly dependent on regulatory frameworks and geopolitical arrangements, rather than just cash costs of mining [20]. - While these factors may not immediately alter global lithium supply volumes, they will likely lead to a reassessment of compliance resources, political risks, and supply chain control, making prices more susceptible to fluctuations in response to localized disruptions [21].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the significant increase in the futures price of胶版印刷纸, which rose by 3.57% to 4238.00 yuan, with a peak of 4250.00 yuan during trading on January 23 [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Nanhua Futures expects the current market trend to be viewed as neutral to slightly bullish, supported by a recovery in pulp prices and reduced production from paper companies [2]. - New Century Futures predicts short-term price fluctuations due to stable production levels and weak demand, with paper companies maintaining a price support despite thin profit margins [3]. - Galaxy Futures indicates a weak balance between supply and demand, with production at 196,000 tons, a decrease of 3.4% month-on-month, and a slight increase in inventory levels [4].

格林大华期货 我们专注期货研究 2026年01月23日 08:55 星期五 研究院《市场快讯 -- 成本支撑带动昨夜BR强势涨停》 昨夜丁二烯橡胶（BR）主力合约强势涨停，收盘价12930元/吨。丁二烯作为BR最 主要的原料来源，其价格直接影响BR期现价格走势。自25年12月以来，BR期价便在 丁二烯的带动下持续走强。近期受进口船货到港有限和下游产品开工率较高因素影 响，丁二烯港口库存明显减少，部分生产企业还有外售丁二烯货源的情况出现，反映 出当下丁二烯基本面的强势表现。同时中期来看，今年上半年丁二烯无新增装置投 产，加剧市场对其供应紧缺的担忧。此外，近期资金快速流向能化板块也令橡胶品种 迎来资金助推。 综合来看, 昨夜丁二烯橡胶涨停主要是受原料+资金共同作用的结果，其自身供需情 况并未出现明显变动。短期由于丁二烯货源偏紧，预计仍会对BR价格形成提振，交 易层面主要警惕情绪释放后的回调风险。 研究员：李方磊 联系方式：19339940612 期货交易咨询号: Z0021311 格林大华期货研究院-证监许可【2011】1288号 免责声明：本内容及数据结果仅供交流参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资者据此操作，风险自 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply slightly declined, downstream load increased, and port inventory decreased, but the absolute inventory level remained high. Styrene was driven by exports and device issues, with strong price trends. The spread between styrene and pure benzene is expected to have limited room for further expansion. Strategies include temporary observation and focusing on opportunities to shrink the EB - BZ spread [1]. Natural Rubber - Supply is shrinking as Thailand and Vietnam enter the production - reduction period, and raw material prices are rising. Demand from some semi - steel tire enterprises for export is sufficient, but domestic sales are slow. The social inventory of natural rubber in China is accumulating. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: Spot prices are stable, with high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - Glass: Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. Futures prices are expected to continue the weak - oscillation trend in the short term [6]. Crude Oil - International oil prices declined due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and significant inventory accumulation. Brent crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 dollars per barrel in the short term [8]. Polyolefins - For LLDPE, the marginal supply is expected to increase, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. For PP, the supply - demand situation is weak, but the balance has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans [10]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating strongly, and the basis is weakening. The inland supply is high, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory is slightly decreasing, but MTO demand is weak. Key variables include the reduction rhythm of Iranian imports and the subsiding of geopolitical risk premiums [12]. Urea - Urea futures rose, and spot prices were stable. Supply is sufficient in the short term, and demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract focusing on the 1,740 - 1,790 range [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Prices rebounded slightly, but the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the rebound height of futures is expected to be limited. - PVC: Futures rose, but the supply is high, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate widely with cost support and supply - demand pressure [15]. LPG - LPG futures prices rose, and inventory decreased. The upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly. The market situation needs to be further observed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is high in January, and demand is weakening. Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival and have strong support in the second quarter. - PTA: Supply - demand is weakening, and the basis is weakening. Futures prices rose, but the self - driving force is limited before the Spring Festival. - MEG: Supply is high, and there is a large inventory accumulation expectation. - Bottle chips: Supply is expected to decline, and demand will weaken seasonally. - Short fibers: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and prices follow raw materials [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, while CFR Japan naphtha and CFR China pure benzene prices increased. The spread between pure benzene and naphtha widened [1]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices increased, and the spread between styrene and pure benzene widened [1]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, with some improving and some deteriorating [1]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased [1]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased, and the basis changed [2]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread and 1 - 5 spread changed [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Thai and Indonesian rubber production decreased, while Indian and Chinese production increased. Tire production and export increased, and the operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires changed [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory of natural rubber increased, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased [6]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda ash spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased [6]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and operating rate increased, while the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume increased [6]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory decreased, and soda ash factory inventory increased [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate changed, with some improving and some deteriorating [6]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, while SC crude oil prices increased. Spreads between different crude oil varieties and months changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Refined oil prices decreased, and spreads between different refined oil products and months changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of some refined oil products decreased [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: LLDPE and PP futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and between LLDPE and PP changed [10]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates and downstream operating rates changed [10]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased [10]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices increased, and the basis and spreads between different contracts changed [12]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise and port inventories changed, with enterprise inventory decreasing and port inventory increasing [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [12]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices rose, and spot prices were stable [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: Urea production increased, and demand from some industries decreased. The inventory decreased [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices changed, with PVC prices rising and caustic soda prices rebounding slightly [15]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [15]. - **Supply**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and industry profits changed [15]. - **Demand**: Downstream operating rates of PVC and caustic soda changed [15]. - **Inventory**: Chlor - alkali social and factory inventories changed [15]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: LPG futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures changed [16]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery and port inventories decreased [16]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream and downstream operating rates of LPG changed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, MX, and PX prices changed [17]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices and cash flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester chips changed [17]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: PX prices and spreads changed [17]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA prices and spreads changed [17]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: MEG port inventory decreased, and the arrival expectation increased [17]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain changed [17].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a broad increase on January 22, with the chemical sector leading the gains, particularly in products like butadiene rubber, ethylene glycol, and styrene, which saw daily increases of over 3% to 4% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1694.75 points, up 14.75 points or 0.88% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2337.01 points, also up 20.34 points or 0.88% [1] Group 2: Chemical Products Performance - Chemical products saw a significant rally, with synthetic rubber, ethylene glycol, and styrene all rising over 4%. This surge is attributed to a strong consensus on the return of a bull market in commodities, with investors shifting focus to the chemical sector after previous gains in precious and industrial metals [2] - Factors supporting this rally include rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing countries and increased natural gas prices in Europe and the U.S. due to severe weather, which have positively impacted the cost side for chemical products [2] - Supply-demand mismatches have also contributed to the strength in the chemical sector, with tight supply conditions for butadiene and unexpected shutdowns in styrene production leading to increased speculative activity in the market [2] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate and Other Commodities - Lithium carbonate saw a significant increase, rising nearly 6% to reach a new high, driven by supply uncertainties and strong downstream demand from battery manufacturers. The upcoming Chinese New Year has also led to stockpiling activities [3] - Other commodities, including polysilicon, alumina, tin, eggs, palm oil, and crude oil, also experienced gains of over 1% [3] Group 4: Precious Metals Adjustment - The precious metals sector underwent a high-level adjustment, with gold and silver rebounding to maintain their gains, while palladium and platinum led the declines with drops of 1.90% and 0.92%, respectively [4] - The recent geopolitical tensions and changes in trade policies have impacted the demand for precious metals, leading to a retreat in prices, particularly for palladium and platinum, which have shown weaker monetary attributes [4] Group 5: Sugar Market Dynamics - The sugar market saw a slight recovery after five consecutive days of decline, influenced by overall market improvements. However, expectations of increased global sugar production for the 2025/26 season and the nearing end of the domestic peak season have created a supply surplus against weak demand [5] - Current domestic sugar prices are considered undervalued and close to cost support levels, which may drive prices into a bottoming phase [5]

Market Overview - As of January 21, the top 20 futures companies for polypropylene (PP) had a total long position of 462,700 contracts and a short position of 525,400 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.88. The net position decreased by 1,288 contracts to -62,800 contracts compared to the previous day [1] - The operating rate of PP petrochemical enterprises in China is at 75.62%, which is an increase of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week. Weekly production of PP granules reached 775,800 tons, down 0.44% week-on-week, while PP powder production fell to 56,900 tons, a decrease of 15.62% week-on-week [1] Profit Margins - The production margins for various methods of PP production are as follows: oil-based PP has a margin of -430.13 CNY/ton, coal-based PP -314.73 CNY/ton, methanol-based PP -970.67 CNY/ton, propane dehydrogenation -1,297.8 CNY/ton, and externally sourced propylene -435.4 CNY/ton [1] Institutional Insights - According to Xinda Futures, the current PP market is characterized by a balance of bullish and bearish factors, with short-term low inventory, maintenance of some facilities, and rising costs from refined oil providing support. However, long-term concerns include excess crude oil supply, increased post-holiday supply, weak downstream demand, and the substitution effect of granules, leading to a lack of clear directional movement and an overall range-bound market [3] - Minmetals Futures notes that the rise in futures prices is supported by a slight reduction in global oil inventories as predicted by the EIA monthly report, alleviating supply excess. There are no new capacity additions planned for the first half of 2026, which reduces pressure. Seasonal fluctuations in downstream operating rates contribute to a high overall inventory pressure, with no significant contradictions in the short term. The historical high level of warehouse receipts suggests that prices may stabilize as the supply excess situation changes in the first quarter of next year, with a shift from cost-driven declines to mismatched production leading to opportunities for low-price buying of PP spreads [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Bearish rebound [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PP**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PVC**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PX/PTA**: Range - bound [2] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously avoid shorting [2][3] - **Urea**: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - **Natural Gas**: Cautiously bullish [6] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Glass**: Bearish continuation [6] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish continuation [6] Group 2: Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Extreme cold weather drives up gas prices, leading to an oil price rebound. However, there is a supply - surplus situation in the off - season, and geopolitical uncertainties remain [1][8][9]. - **LPG**: Follows the cost - end oil price. In the medium - to - long - term, the oil price is under pressure, and the LPG price has room for compression [1][14][15]. - **L**: Cost support improves, but the spot price has not stopped falling. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short term [1][19]. - **PP**: Follows the cost to rebound in the short term. The fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, and the short - term supply pressure eases [1][23]. - **PVC**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda drops, and the cost support of marginal devices improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken [1][26]. - **PX/PTA**: Valuation is not low, with supply and demand in a tight balance. It is expected to perform well, but there are risks of negative feedback from the demand side and excessive oil price drops before the Spring Festival [2][28]. - **MEG**: Valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. The supply increases, and the demand weakens seasonally. It is recommended to short on rebounds [2][31][32]. - **Methanol**: The valuation is not low, and the supply - demand situation is slightly loose. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the rebound height may be limited [2][35][37]. - **Urea**: The absolute valuation is not low. The comprehensive profit is good, and the supply load is rising. The demand is strong in the short term but may weaken during the holiday season [3][39][41]. - **Natural Gas**: Cold air drives up gas prices, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the upward space of gas prices may be limited [6][45][46]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material end provides support, and the price remains stable. However, there are uncertainties in the supply of raw materials and the compression space for spreads [6][49][50]. - **Glass**: The supply and demand are both weak. In the absence of further cold - repair implementation, it should be treated bearishly [6][54]. - **Soda Ash**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, and the demand support is insufficient. It should be treated bearishly before further intensification of maintenance [6][58]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose by 0.43%, Brent fell by 0.60%, and the domestic SC rose by 0.59% [8]. - **Basic Logic**: Cold air drives up gas prices, pushing up oil prices. The Middle - East geopolitical situation eases but remains uncertain. There is a supply surplus in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the oil price is in a low - price range. In the short - term, it is in a volatile adjustment, and the SC should be monitored in the range of [440 - 450] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On January 21, the PG main contract closed at 4064 yuan/ton, up 0.12% month - on - month [13]. - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows the cost - end oil price, which is under pressure in the medium - to - long - term. The supply is stable, and the downstream chemical demand is resilient [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG price has compression space. The PG should be monitored in the range of [3050 - 3150] [15]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract's related data shows certain price and volume changes [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, the linear production schedule increases, but the spot price has not stopped falling. The terminal replenishment is insufficient, and it is expected to follow the cost fluctuation [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6600 - 6800] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [21]. - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds with the cost in the short term. The supply and demand are both weak, and the PDH profit is compressed, increasing the maintenance expectation [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6450 - 6600] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The liquid caustic soda price drops, and the cost support of marginal devices improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [4650 - 4850] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the supply is affected by device maintenance, the downstream demand weakens seasonally, and the cost end is in a weak balance [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, with the TA05 monitored in the range of [5130 - 5220] [29]. MEG - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is low, the domestic supply load increases, the demand weakens seasonally, and the inventory accumulates [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds, with the EG05 monitored in the range of [3680 - 3760] [32]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in a prominent market - review section. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the domestic and overseas device loads decline, the supply pressure eases, and the demand weakens slightly [35][36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply pressure eases in January, and the demand is suppressed by weak olefin demand. The MA05 should be monitored in the range of [2200 - 2250] [37]. Urea - **Market Review**: The UR05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the supply load rises, the demand is strong in the short term but may weaken during the holiday season, and the inventory is still relatively high [39][40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter - storage benefit is limited, the supply pressure is expected to increase, and the UR05 should be monitored in the range of [1760 - 1790] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On January 20, the NG main contract closed at 3.183 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 17.80% month - on - month [44]. - **Basic Logic**: Cold air drives up demand and gas prices. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the inventory situation is known [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the winter consumption season, the demand supports the gas price, but the upward space may be limited. The NG should be monitored in the range of [4.866 - 5.496] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On January 21, the BU main contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, up 0.57% month - on - month [48]. - **Basic Logic**: The raw material end provides support, the cost profit declines, the supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory increases [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spread valuation returns to normal but still has compression space. There are uncertainties in the supply of raw materials. The BU should be monitored in the range of [3150 - 3250] [50]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [52]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply and demand are both weak, the demand is in the off - season, and the weak demand suppresses the upward space [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [1030 - 1080] [54]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [56]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, the demand support from float glass is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [1150 - 1200] [58].

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 1月石化市场偏强运行，原油上涨对化工品形成支撑，有机化工指数月均环比涨2.4%。受装置检修叠加 春节前补库支撑芳烃产业链强势上涨。而油品类偏弱，炼厂高负荷生产而物流、基建进入传统淡季。烯 烃新增产能加大供应压力，下游塑编、包装需求复苏缓慢，产业链承压。2月虽行业处于传统淡季，但 节前备货及节后稳增长的需求预期逐渐启动，下游备货节奏逐步增强。供应端新增产能较少，叠加原油 看涨，预计2月石化行业延续偏强走势。 石化行业：成本支撑与节前补库共振，市场或延续偏强走势 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming obvious, and the fundamentals lack highlights. The supply of steel is disturbed, and the cost support is loosening. However, due to subsequent steel mill resumption and winter storage replenishment, the further decline space of furnace material prices is limited, and the cost decline rhythm is gradually slowing down. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices. The sector still shows weak performance, and attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment rhythm of the furnace material end [2]. - Overall, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure in the short term. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the downstream replenishment intensity. The resumption of steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the replenishment expectation, and the furnace material prices still have the expectation of a low - level rebound at that time [6] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Iron Element - Supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. The supply end is still expected to be disturbed by weather, and the pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on the real side remain to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel is rising, and the daily consumption is expected to decline. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] Carbon Element - Coke: There is still room for the cost end of coke to rebound. With the expectation of steel mill resumption and the demand for winter storage replenishment still existing, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase will still be implemented, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [3]. - Coking coal: The winter storage on the demand side is still in progress, and the output of coal mines on the supply side is expected to decline near the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has upward momentum. However, after the trading logic changes, the bullish driving force of the fundamentals for the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [3] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The cost push is relatively weak, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the inventory reduction pressure is large. The upward space of the futures price is limited, but the current futures price valuation is low. Under the support of high - cost, beware of the risk of excessive short - chasing [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply and demand in the ferrosilicon market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to mainly follow the sector [3] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The supply is still expected to be disturbed, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [3]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3]