9月14日至15日，中美刚在马德里碰头聊完合作的事，中方代表第一时间宣布了会谈成果，然而美国财 政部长贝森特那边就换了脸色，马上找上欧洲"老朋友"，劝他们赶紧对中国商品动手，加税。 这场戏，前一秒还在谈"共赢"，后一秒就开始拉人组队围堵，节奏快得让人有点反应不过来。 说白了，中美这场会谈表面是谈合作，背后还是在博弈。中方亮出诚意，美国却像是早就准备好Plan B，随时准备换个剧本继续上演"压力外交"。 会谈刚结束，中方先把态度摆清楚 这次中美会面，是在西班牙马德里举行的，为期两天，主要谈的是经济和贸易方面的问题。 会谈一结束，中方代表就第一时间站出来，于9月15日公布了最新的结果，把谈判内容和结果都讲清楚 了。 中方的态度没藏着掖着，直接说得很明白：这次会谈是一次基于对等和尊重的交流，双方聊得坦率，也 算是有些共识。 重点谈了技术出口、投资环境，还有双边贸易合作的问题。 其中比较受关注的，是涉及中国科技企业的事情，中方表示愿意根据法律来处理出口审批的问题。并且 双方在Tik Tok的问题上达成了基本框架。 说白了，就是不回避敏感议题，但也不会轻易让步，更不会接受谁来指手画脚。 另外，中方还提到，希望美方能取消 ...

Group 1 - The trade war between the US and China escalated significantly starting in 2018, with the US imposing tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods, primarily targeting industrial products [2] - By 2019, the US expanded tariffs to $200 billion worth of Chinese goods at a rate of 10%, while China retaliated with tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods [2] - In 2024, the trade conflict intensified again, with the US imposing an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports on the first day of Trump's return to the White House [5] Group 2 - The agricultural sector in the US has faced severe challenges due to the trade war, with a 20% drop in purchases from China, leading to a loss of $12 billion [9] - In 2024, bankruptcy filings among US farms surged by 55%, particularly affecting the Midwest [9] - The average American household incurs an additional $2,000 in living costs annually due to tariffs, which is estimated to slow GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points [10] Group 3 - China has demonstrated strategic resilience by diversifying its import channels, with imports from Brazil and Russia reaching $80 billion in the first half of 2025 [12] - Despite a 25% decrease in exports to the US, China's overall exports grew by 6% due to the Belt and Road Initiative [12] - Trade with Africa has significantly increased, with trade volume surpassing 2 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 14.2% annual growth since 2000 [14] Group 4 - The trade war has historical parallels to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which led to a significant contraction in global trade [16] - The US agricultural sector has faced $27 billion in losses, prompting warnings of bankruptcy from agricultural associations [16] - In contrast, China's proactive global market strategies have allowed it to maintain a GDP growth rate of over 5% in 2025 [16] Group 5 - China's exports to Africa surged by 25.9% in the first eight months of 2025, with electric vehicle sales doubling [17] - African agricultural products are filling the gap left by US imports, with a 50% annual growth rate in imports from Africa [17] - China is aiding African nations in transforming idle farmland into productive agricultural areas, fostering mutual benefits [17] Group 6 - The ongoing trade conflict highlights the dangers of unilateral protectionism and the advantages of a diversified global strategy [18] - China's deep engagement in the African market has not only mitigated the impacts of the trade war but also created new growth opportunities [18] - As US farmers struggle under the weight of tariffs, China's cooperation with Africa is establishing a new foundation for future trade dynamics [18]

The White House says it wants to smash Vladimir Putin’s war machine in Ukraine by imposing tariffs of as much as 100% on China and India, the two biggest buyers of Russian energy, provided its friends in the Also Read| A softened US and India reboot talks. What can happen?But how can they? The EU may not have an internal consensus — a pro-Kremlin Hungarian leadership is likely to block any such secondary sanctions. Nor will Japan and the UK want to jeopardize their interests in Asia by making the US trade ...

据报道，美国大豆生产者正面临前所未有的困境，甚至可能迎来历史性的"危机"时刻。近年来，作为全 球最大的大豆出口国，美国大豆产业曾依赖中国这一重要市场，但随着中美贸易战的升级，中国的采购 量几乎断崖式下滑。对美国农民来说，这不仅是一个失去市场的灾难，更是整个农业产业链的巨震。 而特朗普政府的应对策略又陷入了更深的困境，继而试图通过极限施压，联合多国对中国进行加税，寻 求一条"反制"之路。 全球大豆供应市场发生了戏剧性的变化。中国，一度是美国大豆出口的最大客户，已经不再下订单。美 国大豆协会主席拉格兰在接受采访时直言："今年的订单为零"，这是美国农业历史上难得一见的景象。 美国农民的心情从期盼转为绝望：每年一到收获季节，仓库里堆积的大豆总是迎来大量订单，尤其是来 自中国的订单，通常会占到美国大豆出口的半数以上。 然而，随着中国加大对南美大豆的采购，美国的大豆销售逐渐被边缘化。可以说，特朗普政府在中美贸 易战中所推行的关税政策，已经让美国的最大客户中国失去了购买的动力。 美国大豆协会也在公开信中表示，今年的43亿蒲式耳大豆产量创下历史第六高，但由于缺少中国订单， 库存压力、仓储成本、资金链问题等一系列问题让美国农民 ...

尽管特朗普的关税政策打击商业信心并逐步推高消费价格，但华尔街将注意力牢牢锁定在美联储降息路 径以及人工智能的持续热潮上，以维持标普500的涨势。预期波动率指标处于休眠状态，分析师对2026 年上半年的盈利预期正回升至年初水平。 在美联储降息预期推动下，华尔街对全球贸易战的担忧正被彻底抛诸脑后。 近期，彭博智库策略师Michael Casper和Wendy Soong在报告中写道，贸易战几乎就像是华尔街想象中的 一场噩梦。这种转变突显了市场对货币政策前景的关注度远超贸易政策担忧。 自特朗普4月首次宣布全球关税攻势以来，标普500指数已飙升32%，大多数预测师预计年底前将进一步 上涨。 上周数据显示，8月通胀符合预期上升，使美联储保持在降息轨道上。据劳工统计局数据，剔除波动较 大的食品和能源类别的核心消费价格指数较7月上涨0.3%，同比增长3.1%。 盈利预期强劲反弹 分析师正快速上调盈利预期，这一趋势凸显了对美国企业增长引擎的信心，支撑了标普500的牛市行 情。 自7月触底以来，标普500的2026年盈利预期已连续九周攀升。据彭博智库数据，目前每股295美元的预 期与4月底水平一致。 Roundhill Fin ...

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment has shifted positively towards the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to a decrease in anxiety over the global trade war, with the S&P 500 index rising by 32% since April [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index's earnings expectations for 2026 have been on the rise for nine consecutive weeks, currently at $295 per share, aligning with levels from late April [2] - The second quarter saw an 11% year-over-year increase in corporate earnings, significantly exceeding prior expectations, driven by resilient consumer demand and ongoing investments in artificial intelligence [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent inflation data from August met market expectations, indicating that the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting process will proceed as planned, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.3% from July and a year-over-year increase of 3.1% [2] - The actual tariff rate in the U.S. is approximately 9%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate of around 18%, attributed to "transshipment trade" and exemptions from new or existing tariff policies [3] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Concerns over tariffs have diminished as the S&P 500 index rises, with the Bloomberg index tracking global trade uncertainty dropping to its lowest level of the year [3] - The focus on tariffs may resurface during the next earnings season, as the impact of tariffs is expected to become more apparent in the second half of the year [4]

Group 1 - The core argument is that the likelihood of the US and EU jointly imposing high tariffs on China is low due to the significant economic repercussions they would face domestically [1][10][11] - China's manufacturing sector holds a dominant position globally, accounting for approximately 33% of global manufacturing output, which is about $5.7 trillion, surpassing both the US and EU individually [3][4] - Historical context shows that previous tariff increases led to significant market reactions, with the US stock market declining and China’s stock market rebounding, indicating the interconnectedness of their economies [4][6] Group 2 - The internal conflicts between the US and EU complicate their ability to unite against China, as evidenced by the EU's dissatisfaction with trade agreements that favor the US [6][8] - Both the US and EU rely heavily on Chinese goods, with overlapping demand for key products, making it difficult to find alternative suppliers [8][9] - The ongoing high inflation in the US and EU poses a significant risk; imposing tariffs could exacerbate inflation, leading to public discontent and political repercussions [10][11] Group 3 - China's strong relationships with ASEAN and other regions provide it with a robust economic backing, contrasting with the US and EU's interdependent and often conflicting relationship [7][8] - The time required to rebuild manufacturing capabilities in the US and EU means they are not prepared to sever ties with China, as establishing new production facilities takes years [9][10]

据报道，最近，全球能源市场发生了令人惊讶的变局。中国对美国能源的进口几乎归零——液化天然气 （LNG）、原油和煤炭这些原本是美国出口的"支柱"商品，现在一个月下来，连个位数的采购量都没 有。这种突然的"零采购"现象，给美国的能源出口商泼了盆冷水，而特朗普的反应更是让人啼笑皆非： 他不仅喊话要对中国加征100%的关税，还试图拉拢全球27个盟友国家一起对中国下狠手。然而，现实 告诉他，这不仅是徒劳的威胁，反而暴露了美国在能源领域的巨大隐患。 编辑 在过去几十年里，美国的能源市场几乎是全球供应链的核心之一。随着美国页岩油和页岩气的崛起，美 国成为世界上最大的液化天然气（LNG）出口国之一，而中国——作为全球最大能源需求市场——是 美国能源出口的最大买家之一。然而，在特朗普领导下的美国政府，选择通过激烈的贸易战手段"刀枪 相见"，试图通过加征关税打击中国的进口需求。这一系列举措无疑引发了严重的反作用，尤其在能源 领域的影响尤为深刻。 7月的海关数据出炉后，所有人都傻眼了。中国自美国进口的原油、液化天然气和煤炭总量几乎为零， 创下了五年来的新低。这一变化，意味着什么？如果从数据上看，这不仅仅是一个市场波动，而是一种 深 ...

据报道，当特朗普在社交媒体上高声喊话中国，要求增加大豆订单四倍时，很多人可能都觉得这是在做 梦。因为这不仅是空洞的承诺，更是对现实的漠视。对美国农民来说，这样的威胁简直是雪上加霜。中 国已经悄然改变了大豆采购的策略，特朗普的这一番口头承诺，无法掩盖实际情况中的巨大裂缝。 今年，随着美国大豆的收获季临近，美国农民的心情比往年任何时候都要沉重。普遍认为，在过去的几 十年里，中国市场一直是美国大豆出口的"救命稻草"。然而，现在，这个曾经最大的买家却突然转向了 巴西等国。根据最新的市场信息，2025年，尽管美国大豆的供应量已经达到了预期，但却迟迟没有迎来 来自中国的采购订单——这也是近20年来最晚的一次。 在特朗普宣布自己"为中国提供快速服务"之后，芝加哥期货交易所的大豆价格略有上涨。但这只是市场 对不确定性的一种暂时反应，背后却有着美国农业界的深深忧虑。美国大豆协会的负责人纷纷在媒体前 发声，表达了对特朗普关税政策的强烈不满和担忧。在美国大豆市场，这不仅是一个个体的损失，更是 整个产业链的崩溃。农民们明白，如果中国继续缺席，美国的大豆将再也没有买家，价值也将荡然无 存。 中国是全球最大的进口大豆市场，以前，它从美国 ...

Group 1 - The US and China held trade talks in Madrid on September 14, focusing on unilateral tariffs, export controls, and TikTok [1][3][8] - The US Department of Commerce added 32 entities to its export control list, including 23 from mainland China, with 13 related to semiconductors and integrated circuits [4][5] - China initiated two investigations against the US regarding discriminatory practices in the integrated circuit sector and anti-dumping measures on imported simulation chips [1][6] Group 2 - The trade talks in Madrid are seen as a significant diplomatic opportunity for Spain, enhancing its status as a strategic negotiation center [2][3] - The ongoing trade war has impacted global economic stability, with the US extending the tariff truce for another 90 days, set to expire in November [3][4] - The Chinese semiconductor industry is facing challenges due to US export restrictions and price undercutting from American firms in the simulation chip market [6][7]