Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of industrial enterprises in the first half of 2025, highlighting the impact of trade wars and price wars on various sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Profit Growth Trends**: In the first half of 2025, industrial enterprises experienced a profit growth improvement in the first quarter, but a decline was noted in May and June due to the introduction of equal tariffs and price wars. June showed a slight improvement in profit growth, but it remained weak overall [2][3]. - **Impact of Trade Wars**: The trade war has led to a pattern where midstream raw materials and downstream industrial products saw initial revenue and profit growth, followed by a decline. This trend aligns with the timing of export rush and tariff policies [3][4]. - **"Revenue without Profit" Phenomenon**: The downstream consumer goods sector exhibited a "revenue without profit" characteristic, where revenue remained stable but profits declined due to price wars [4][5]. - **Sector Performance**: In June 2025, midstream dye processing, non-ferrous processing, and downstream sectors like instrumentation and automotive manufacturing showed improvements in both revenue and profit growth. However, the communication electronics manufacturing sector faced continuous profit decline despite revenue growth, likely due to price competition and tariff costs [5][6]. - **Inventory Cycle Trends**: The inventory cycle in the first half of 2025 showed a trend of initial replenishment followed by destocking, reflecting unstable business expectations. Midstream raw materials began destocking in the second quarter, while downstream industrial and consumer goods sectors continued to destock, indicating a lack of replenishment motivation [6][7]. - **High Inventory Turnover**: Industrial enterprises faced high product turnover days and extended accounts receivable collection periods, indicating weak replenishment intentions due to unstable demand [8]. Additional Important Insights - **Future Policy Expectations**: Anticipation of upcoming political meetings and ongoing US-China negotiations may influence future policies. There is a possibility of focusing on domestic demand policies in the latter half of the year, especially if fundamental pressures begin to emerge [9][10]. - **Export and Consumption Outlook**: The overall export orders are expected to face pressure in the second half of the year, particularly in the latter part of the third quarter, necessitating attention to domestic demand policies to address potential challenges [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term due to high - cost support from coking coal, despite the general downstream demand affected by weather and the suppression of speculative demand by the correction of coking coal and coke futures [1]. - Gold is still in a fluctuating and bearish trend but may rebound in the short term as the US tariff issue remains uncertain and the market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate meeting and non - farm data, while the US dollar index has limited upward momentum [1]. - The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is currently healthy. In the short term, the price is expected to follow the sector, but the upward space in the long term should be viewed with caution as the downstream demand is resilient but production may increase [3]. - The coke market is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term due to tight supply, cost support, and stable downstream demand [4]. - The bond market's logical main line is unclear. With the global economic recovery and the smooth progress of China - US talks, attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [4]. - The national pig price continues to decline. It is recommended to short opportunistically and for farmers to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm due to oversupply [5]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to the substitution effect of soybean meal, the weakening of US soybean prices, and the expected increase in new supply. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [6]. - Polypropylene's PP 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips as the supply is abundant and the inventory is high [7]. - Silver is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations. The positive outlook for the global economy is fundamentally beneficial to silver, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate meeting and US employment data [7]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term. International factors support the price, but the domestic market has a loose supply and weak demand [8]. - Soda ash's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see as the production is increasing, the inventory is high, and the downstream demand is low - price - based [9]. - Crude oil should be treated as bullish at low levels as the US increases pressure on Russia and the market believes the trade war is weakening, and the inventory is not high [10][11]. - PTA should be short - term long at low levels as it follows crude oil, with a relatively balanced supply - demand situation and weakening cost support [11]. - Rubber should be treated as bullish at low levels as the weather is normal, there is a slight inventory reduction in China, and the downstream demand is improving [12]. - Methanol's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips as the domestic production is expected to increase, the downstream demand is stable, and the port may accumulate inventory [13]. Summary by Variety Metals - **Steel (Rebar)**: On July 29, domestic steel prices turned from falling to rising. The average price of rebar in major cities was 3441 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Short - term steel prices will fluctuate and strengthen [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The national 136 - enterprise sample start - up rate was 33.33%, up 0.88% week - on - week, and the daily output was 14,615 tons, up 2.31% week - on - week. The weekly demand of five major steel types was 20,065.7 tons, up 0.26% week - on - week. The inventory of 60 independent enterprises decreased by 2.22% [3]. - **Coke**: On July 29, mainstream steel mills raised the bid price for wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton. The coke market is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Affected by the US tariff issue and the Fed's interest - rate meeting, gold is in a fluctuating and bearish trend but may rebound in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: With the positive outlook for the global economy, silver is expected to remain in high - level fluctuations. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate meeting and US employment data [7]. Agricultural Products - **Pork**: On July 29, the national average pork price was 20.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The national pig price is falling, and it is recommended to short opportunistically [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In June 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil production, and rapeseed meal production increased month - on - month, while soybean - related data decreased. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia is expected to export more than 500 tons of palm oil to India in 2025. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [8]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene**: The mainstream price of East - China's drawn - grade polypropylene was 7117 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton. The PP 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash was 1366 yuan/ton, with a recent price rebound. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: PXCFR was reported at 852 US dollars/ton. The PTA supply is expected to be abundant, and it should be short - term long at low levels [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Jiangsu Taicang market was 2405 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: As of July 25, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.539 million barrels. Crude oil should be treated as bullish at low levels [10]. Others - **Rubber**: The raw material prices in Thailand and China are relatively stable. The European replacement tire market sales decreased year - on - year. Rubber should be treated as bullish at low levels [12].

根据瑞典斯德哥尔摩会谈共识，中美双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天。商务部国际贸易谈判代表李成钢说，在过去一天半时间里，就彼此关注的重大议题进行了深入、坦诚、建设性的交流。双方经贸团队将继续保持密切沟通。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):南华早报：知情人士认为，中国与美国周一在瑞典首都斯德哥尔摩开始的贸易谈判将使关税休战期再度延长三个月，双方将承诺不彼此征收额外关税，也不会以其他方式升级贸易战。双方将就主要症结（例如美国对中国工业产能过剩的担忧）阐述自己的观点，而非取得具体突破。料中方将就芬太尼关税向美方施压。 https://t.co/CuLhQq7oHc ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/7/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | -26.3↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1460.000 | | | 1735 | +12.70↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2510-EC2512价差 | -40.00↓ EC2510-EC2602价差 | -275.00 | | | -61.30 | -23.10↓ | | EC合约基差 | | 856.56 | +42.80↑ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 50726 32↑ | | | | | | | SCFIS（欧 ...

"不降息的理由远不如0个基点的降息押注和美联储言论所暗示的那般明确……鲍威尔在年中国会证词和 欧洲央行辛特拉会议上曾表示，若不是关税相关的通胀不确定性，美联储本可以降息，"报告称。 策略师强调，FOMC成员的分歧已缩小至仅围绕关税影响的争论："这使得美联储鹰派与鸽派的分歧缩 小为对关税预期影响的不同看法，而这一影响本身极具争议。" 如美联储理事沃勒等鸽派人士希望忽视一次性价格上涨，而鲍威尔的基本观点是，若没有关税，美联储 本可以宽松。 美元周一大幅上涨，此前数月因贸易战焦虑遭受重创。然而，渣打银行警告，即便美国最激烈的关税争 端已逐渐平息，这一受挫货币也难获喘息——因为美联储可能转向鸽派，成为其面临的主要威胁。 "美元进一步走弱更可能源于美联储降息速度快于市场预期，而非贸易战风险消退推动的广泛风险偏好 情绪，"渣打银行（Standard Chartered）策略师周一在报告中称，并补充道，"贸易协议的利好消息已接 近完全反映在定价中。" 包括美欧和美日框架协议等一系列贸易协议新闻已缓解了市场最严重的担忧。这一影响已体现在美元走 势上。 渣打银行称，"上月美元走弱可能反映出市场的喘息，即最糟糕的贸易谈判结果不太 ...

Group 1: Event Overview - The "Going Global" conference, themed "From Craftsmanship to the World," will be held in Hangzhou, focusing on globalization and overseas expansion [1] - The main venue will feature discussions on popular sectors such as consumption, technology, e-commerce, finance, and new energy, with over 10 keynote speeches and 5 roundtable discussions [1] - The event aims to provide a sustainable path for companies to navigate globalization challenges and enhance their overseas capabilities [1] Group 2: Insights from Huang Sheng's Presentation - Huang Sheng, a finance professor, shared insights on the trade war and strategies for Chinese companies to navigate global markets [4] - The presentation highlighted the importance of practical case studies from the past 30 years of the China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) [4] - CEIBS is collaborating with government departments to promote research on Chinese companies' overseas expansion [5] Group 3: Trade War Analysis - The essence of globalization is division of labor and cooperation, with Chinese companies traditionally exporting to the U.S. and reinvesting in the U.S. market [6] - The trade war has highlighted disparities in benefits, with multinational corporations gaining more than ordinary workers in the U.S., leading to dissatisfaction among the labor class [6] - The evolving dynamics have resulted in a trend where the U.S. seeks to enhance its supply capabilities while China aims to address demand-side issues [7][8] Group 4: Current State of Chinese Companies Going Global - Two-thirds of Chinese listed companies report overseas revenue, primarily in mid-to-high-end manufacturing sectors [9] - Over the past 20 years, overseas revenue has increased 50 times, while total revenue for A-share listed companies has only grown 20 times [9] - Despite this growth, overseas revenue accounts for only 13% of total income for Chinese listed companies, compared to 40% for S&P 500 companies [9] Group 5: Research on Internationalization Strategies - CEIBS has studied various companies, including established firms like BYD and emerging global players, to understand their internationalization strategies [10] - Successful companies often adopt diverse entry modes, including joint ventures and local operations, to mitigate risks [11] - The research emphasizes the importance of a clear international strategy, understanding local markets, and leveraging unique product advantages [13][14] Group 6: Challenges Faced by Chinese Companies - Chinese companies face challenges such as slow profit realization, talent management, and compliance risks when expanding internationally [15] - The need for deep localization and a long-term strategic approach is crucial for successful overseas operations [15] - The overall outlook for Chinese companies going global remains positive, with potential for cultural recognition and success on the international stage [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent tariff rates imposed by the U.S. are lower than initially feared, alleviating concerns about a severe economic recession [1][2] - The actual tariff rates are expected to stabilize between 15% and 20%, which is significantly higher than earlier low single-digit levels but lower than the previously anticipated 25% [1][2] - Economists have reduced the recession risk from 60% to 40%, indicating a less pessimistic outlook due to strong global economic growth and a more relaxed financial environment [1][2] Group 2 - Despite the reduction in recession risk, there are still concerns that tariffs could suppress economic growth significantly [2] - The final outcome of the trade negotiations remains uncertain, with critical issues needing resolution before the August 1 deadline [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider the impact of tariffs on inflation in their upcoming discussions, with a potential interest rate cut in September if economic conditions weaken [3]

Group 1 - The core of the agreement is a 15% tariff on EU goods exported to the US, along with a commitment from the EU to invest an additional $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products [1][3][4] - The agreement is perceived by some European leaders as a one-sided concession rather than a mutually beneficial trade cooperation, with criticism from figures like Bernd Lange and Marine Le Pen highlighting its negative implications for the EU [1][6][7] - The US maintains a 50% global tariff on steel and aluminum, while the EU's interpretation suggests that pharmaceuticals will also be subject to the 15% tariff, which could impact EU exports significantly [4][5] Group 2 - The agreement has been met with cautious optimism from some US officials, who view it as a significant opening of the EU market, but there is a notable lack of enthusiasm from European leaders [5][6] - European media and business sectors have expressed strong criticism, arguing that the agreement could harm local employment and industry, with concerns about the imbalance in trade terms [6][7] - The new tariff structure represents a significant increase from previous averages, with the EU's average tariff on US goods being 1.32% compared to the newly established 15% [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement of a framework trade agreement between the EU and the US, where the US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU imports, significantly lower than the previously proposed 30% [1][3] - The EU will invest an additional $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion worth of energy over three years to reduce reliance on Russian gas [3][4] - The agreement has received mixed reactions within the EU, with some leaders welcoming it for providing stability, while others, like the French Prime Minister, view it as a negative development [3][4] Group 2 - The trade relationship between the US and EU is significant, with projected trade volumes reaching $975.3 billion by 2024, while the trade between China and the EU is expected to exceed $780 billion [6] - Despite the ongoing trade negotiations, the EU's stance towards China has been cautious, with recent criticisms and sanctions against Chinese entities, indicating a complex relationship [6][8] - The EU's dependency on China in sectors like renewable energy and advanced technologies has increased, contradicting the narrative of "decoupling" from China [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that strategic cooperation with the United States is preferable to engaging in a trade war [1] Group 2 - The statement reflects the European Union's stance on international trade relations, highlighting the importance of collaboration over conflict [1]