4月7日，当标普500指数触及周期低点4853点、市场风险骤增而不确定性飙升时，高盛风险主管Josh Schiffrin大胆发声，预言市场底部已至。正如我们在Schiffrin向其顶级客户发布报告约15分钟后向高级 订阅用户所通报的，这位高盛顶级交易员当时表示："我一直看空，但现在转为看多。是时候分批建仓 了。"他进一步阐述道： "当前市场感受糟糕，但我预计这只是暂时阶段，6-12个月内价格将走高。我认为双向尾部风险都很 大：一方面可能爆发全球贸易战/衰退，另一方面通过系列谈判可能降低贸易壁垒，叠加减税政策推动 市场强劲反弹。" 当市场血流成河之际，听从Schiffrin建议买入的投资者在一个月内获得了相当于全年回报的收益——标 普500指数反弹15%，在4月末至5月初惊人的9连涨后完全收复了"解放日"后的全部跌幅。 但所有交易终将落幕。时至今日，Schiffrin决定平仓离场。在昨夜发送给客户的报告中，他宣布"从看多 转向中性"，因为"短期内市场将进入横盘阶段"。以下是他对风险资产的最新观点节选： 虽然Schiffrin预期市场将经历较长时间消化，但他最终认为股市将恢复上行而非下跌，这与JPM交易部 门昨日 ...

2025年05月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 对二甲苯：月差正套，加工费扩张 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PTA空SC | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：估值支撑，但驱动有限，震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：跟随油价震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：趋势偏弱 | 11 | | PP：价格震荡，低位成交较好 | 13 | | 烧碱：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 14 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 16 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 18 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 20 | | 尿素：震荡有支撑 | 22 | | 苯乙烯：偏弱震荡 | 24 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 25 | | LPG：原油隔夜大跌，成本支撑走弱 | 26 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 29 | | 燃料油：日盘小幅回弹，夜盘仍然弱势 | 31 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅震荡，外盘高低硫价差暂时企稳 | 31 | | 集运指数（欧线）：低位震荡，10-12反套轻仓持有 | 32 | | 短纤：短期 ...

Core Insights - The Australian real estate market is becoming an attractive option for global investors amid market volatility caused by the second Trump presidency, as highlighted by Cushman & Wakefield's chief economist Kevin Thorpe [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Global capital inflow into Asia-Pacific commercial real estate increased from 15% to 25% during Trump's first term, with total investment rising from $25 billion to $45 billion [3] - Following the "Liberation Day" on April 2, investors shifted funds from high-risk assets to safer investments, benefiting real estate as a defensive asset [3] Group 2: REIT Performance - Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have seen their investment weight increase for four consecutive months, with a current overweight ratio of 25%, the highest since the beginning of 2023 [5] - The favorable conditions for REIT investment are attributed to the uncertain economic environment and expectations of interest rate cuts, as REIT income is primarily derived from signed leases, making it less susceptible to economic headwinds [5] Group 3: Economic Resilience - The resilience of the Australian economy, coupled with declining inflation, is boosting market expectations for interest rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of the Australian market [5] - In the event of a global trade war, goods previously intended for export to the U.S. may shift to the Asia-Pacific market, further increasing Australia's market appeal [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Amid increasing economic uncertainty, global capital is seeking investment markets that offer stability and growth potential, positioning the Australian real estate market as a potential safe haven for international capital [5]

近期黄金外汇市场受多因素影响波动明显。川普拟对海外制作电影征100%关税，加剧贸易战担忧，避 险情绪升温，投资者涌入金市推高金价，贸易政策不确定性也致各类指数波动剧烈。随后因中美贸易谈 判乐观情绪及对美联储政策声明的预期，避险需求降低，金价从高位回落。此前，现货黄金曾触及4月 22日以来最高水平。凌晨美联储维持利率不变影响较小。鉴于国际贸易消息持续影响市场，投资者需密 切关注并调整策略。 周三黄金市场表现疲软，以大阴柱收盘。亚盘时段，黄金短线高开于3438后暴跌70点，随后回调至 3360，并对3350进行测试。日内黄金一直在3400 - 3360区间震荡。凌晨美联储维持利率不变，市场受此 影响较小，但黄金下行趋势有所增强，尾盘收于3364。对于日内行情可关注3350一线的支撑位以及3395 一线的压力位。王召金建议在3390点位做空，目标看向3375 - 3360。 白银行情走势分析： 昨日白银行情以一根下影线很长的大阴线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，日线阴包阳；从1 - 4小时级别走 势来看，昨日白银在33.30处受到压制，拉升至33.232上方后便开始回撤，成功回撤至32.22附近，尾盘 收于32.43附近 ...

期货研究报告|宏观政策 2025-05-08 研究院 宏观组 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 高聪 gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 央行 5 月"双降"，关注未来财政增量政策 ——中国货币政策系列十八 宏观事件 2025 年 5 月 7 日，国新办新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 核心观点 ◼ 货币政策"双降" 背景：外部不确定性降低，内部压力对冲。4 月美国实施"对等关税"政策，经济增长面 临的不确定上升，4 月全球制造业 PMI 跌落荣枯线，中国外需在"抢出口"之后逐渐显现， 美国金融市场波动率也显著抬升。压力到了需要"缓和"的窗口。 政策：央行出台"三类十项"政策，金管总局出台"八项增量"政策，证监会推出"三条措施" 稳定和活跃资本市场。（1）总量上，降准 0.5 个百分点，降息 0.1 个百分点；（2）结构 上，汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率降至 0%；结构货性货币政策工具利 率降低 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The price of soybeans and soybean meal is affected by multiple factors. The short - term price of US soybeans is under pressure due to the trade war and good planting progress, but there is strong support from low valuation, reduced planting area, and expected significant increase in US soybean oil demand. The cost of soybean arrival in China has a tendency to rise steadily, but the trade war and other factors may suppress the price of the soybean series [2][3][5]. - The price of palm oil is affected by factors such as US tariffs, export volume, and production volume. The current production of palm oil has recovered significantly, and the decline pressure of oil and fat is relatively large, but it may be supported if the macro - economy stabilizes [7][8][11]. - The price of sugar is affected by factors such as Brazilian production and domestic and foreign supply and demand. The supply shortage has been alleviated, and the price of Zhengzhou sugar may weaken in the future [13][14]. - The price of cotton is affected by domestic macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16][17]. - The price of eggs is mainly determined by supply. With the increase in temperature and new production pressure, the upward pressure on egg prices is increasing, and a short - selling strategy is advocated [19][20]. - The short - term price of live pigs fluctuates little, and the pressure accumulates due to the increase in weight. A short - selling strategy after the price rebound can be considered under the shock pattern [22][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: Overnight US soybeans closed down. The sowing progress is higher than in previous years, and the demand side of US soybean oil lacks clear guidance. Some institutions expect the USDA to lower exports in the May monthly report, and the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio increases. The Brazilian soybean premium was stable yesterday, and the arrival cost decreased. The domestic soybean meal spot was stable on Wednesday, with the lowest price in East China at 3,100 yuan/ton. It is estimated that the soybean arrivals in May, June, and July will be 9.1975 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10.5 million tons respectively, and the inventory of soybean meal and soybeans will increase strongly in the next three months [2]. - **Weather and Cost**: In the next two weeks, there will be more rainfall in the southern part of the US soybean - producing area and sporadic rainfall in the central part, and the planting progress is expected to be normal. Due to high tariffs on US soybeans, China's soybean imports only rely on Brazil, and the Brazilian soybean premium has the motivation to strengthen later. The cost of soybean arrival in China has a tendency to rise steadily, but the trade war may suppress the price of the soybean series [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,000 yuan/ton. It is expected that soybean meal will be relatively weak compared with US soybeans, and attention should be paid to the trading rhythm [5]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Market Situation**: ITS and AMSPEC expect the export of Malaysian palm oil to increase by about 20% - 50% in the first 10 days of April, and the production of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly from May 1 - 5, 2025 [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The downward movement of the crude oil center will significantly suppress the valuation of oils and fats, and the production of palm oil has recovered significantly. The pressure on the decline of oils and fats is relatively large. In the medium term, if the macro - economy stabilizes, oils and fats may be supported [11]. 3.3 Sugar - **Market Situation**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated weakly on Wednesday. The closing price of the September contract was 5,868 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The spot prices of sugar in various regions also decreased. In the first half of April, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply shortage has been alleviated, and the price of raw sugar may reach a new low in the second and third quarters. The price of Zhengzhou sugar may weaken in the future [14]. 3.4 Cotton - **Market Situation**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose on Wednesday. The closing price of the September contract was 12,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.22%. The spot price of cotton decreased slightly. There are some positive macro - policies [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by domestic macro - policies, the cotton price fluctuates. The cotton market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [17]. 3.5 Eggs - **Market Situation**: The domestic egg price mainly declined yesterday, with sufficient supply and general downstream digestion speed. It is expected that the egg price will be mostly stable and a few will decline today [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply still dominates the current egg price. With the increase in temperature and new production pressure, the upward pressure on egg prices is increasing. A short - selling strategy should be maintained [20]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The domestic live pig price was mainly stable yesterday, with a slight increase in some areas. The slaughter enterprise orders are difficult to increase, and the live pig price is expected to be stable today [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price of live pigs fluctuates little, and the pressure accumulates due to the increase in weight. A short - selling strategy after the price rebound can be considered under the shock pattern [23].

受房产税上调和唐纳德·特朗普的贸易战影响，英国房地产市场备受关注的指标跌至近两年来的最低水 平。皇家特许测量师学会表示，其4月份的成交量指数跌至-31，这意味着报告成交量下降的房地产经纪 人数量远远超过报告成交量增长的经纪人数量。该指数上一次走低是在2023年8月。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Donald Trump's tariff policies on the global market and specifically on China's technology industry, highlighting the ongoing trade tensions and the strategic responses from China [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff Policies - Trump's "liberation day" tariff policies have raised concerns about a prolonged trade war, despite signals of potential agreements [1]. - Since the initiation of the first round of tariffs in 2018, China has been preparing for further trade conflicts, focusing on building a robust technology supply chain [1][2]. - The U.S. bipartisan consensus on technology restrictions against China, including chip export controls, is expected to persist regardless of tariff adjustments [2]. Group 2: China's Technological Advancements - China's self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry has significantly improved compared to five years ago, despite still lagging behind in cutting-edge technology [2]. - The success of the DeepSeek AI model has lowered the barriers for applying large language models, showcasing China's growing tech capabilities [2]. - Chinese companies are shifting their focus from reliance on controversial foreign chips, such as Nvidia's H20, to domestic alternatives like Huawei's AI systems, which may lead to substantial revenue growth for Huawei [2]. Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - Since 2018, many companies have relocated manufacturing to countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh, but they still cannot completely abandon the Chinese market due to its scale and infrastructure advantages [3]. - Trump's punitive tariffs are expected to increase consumer costs and force U.S. tech giants to reassess their long-standing supply chain strategies [3]. - Chinese firms are adopting a cautious approach by pausing U.S. operations and focusing on non-U.S. markets to mitigate risks [3]. Group 4: AI Ecosystem and Future Outlook - Tariffs indirectly affect China's AI planning, as executives reassess AI initiatives, impacting the startup ecosystem [4]. - The development of AI, cloud computing, and semiconductors relies on international collaboration, despite the emphasis on strategic autonomy [4]. - The U.S. may attempt to maintain its tech leadership through tariffs and export controls, but these actions could accelerate China's self-sufficiency in technology [5]. - Future cooperation in areas like climate technology and healthcare remains a possibility, despite competitive tensions [5].

花旗集团的一位亚洲理财业务高管表示，尽管在贸易战升温之际，美国经济放缓、企业纷纷下调盈利预 期，但投资者不应撤离美国市场。"我们不建议客户完全退出美国市场，"Yeo Wenxian表示。Yeo负责花 旗的南亚地区及阿联酋的零售境内外理财业务。Yeo还表示，目前不是增加风险的时候，敦促投资者不 要"逢低买入"。 ...

据每日经济新闻报道，美国有线电视新闻网民调机构进行的一项最新民调显示，59%的民众认为美国总统特朗普的政策 恶化了美国经济状况，这一比例较3月份的51%有所上升。调查还发现，美国人对本国经济状况普遍不满，对白宫新贸易 政策缺乏热情。60%的民众称特朗普政策提高了所在社区生活成本，仅12%的民众认为其政策有助于降低物价。此外，仅 有34%的美国人对经济持乐观态度，29%的人感到悲观，37%的人表示担忧。 特朗普（资料图） 曾任美国总统高级经济顾问、现任纽约大学商学院经济学教授的劳伦斯·怀特指出，特朗普政府采取的经济政策违背了基 本经济原则。"各国应专注于最具效率的产业，通过贸易互补优势。关税只会推高成本，削弱福祉、收入与财富。这不仅 未能实现双赢，反而导致多方受损。"在全球供应链高度互联的背景下，业内人士和专家普遍担忧，持续升级的贸易壁垒 将对经济复苏和消费者福利产生长期负面影响。他们呼吁政府采取更加理性、可持续的经济政策以减缓冲击。 贸易战的双刃剑效应。特朗普的"对等关税"政策直接引发了中美贸易战。这场贸易战对美国而言主要导致通胀压力，而 中国则面临就业压力。双方都在通过补贴等政策手段来缓解这些压力，但长期来 ...