Group 1 - The market is currently in a state of anticipation ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with the Dow Jones slightly down by 125 points (0.27%), the Nasdaq down by 0.07%, and the S&P 500 down by 0.13% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is nearly 100%, marking the first rate cut since 2025 and signaling the start of a new easing cycle [3] - Economic data released, such as August retail sales increasing by 0.6% and core indicators rising by 0.7%, were largely ignored by the market, indicating that the focus is on future rate cut expectations rather than current data [3] Group 2 - Individual stocks are experiencing mixed movements, with Oracle rising by 1.5% due to its involvement in TikTok transactions, while Nvidia fell by 1.6% due to weak demand for AI chips in China [4] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which tracks Chinese stocks listed in the U.S., rose by 1.76%, providing a contrast to the overall market performance [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve decision is expected to clarify market direction, with the current market fluctuations viewed as a technical pause before a significant decision [4]

美东时间周二，美股三大指数集体收跌，截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.27%，标普500指数跌0.13%，纳斯 达克综合指数跌0.07%。 大型科技股涨跌互现，特斯拉涨超2%，甲骨文涨超1%，微软、英伟达跌超1%。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.76%。蔚来涨超8%，百度涨超7%，京东、爱奇艺 涨超3%，阿里巴巴涨超2%。 市场分析认为，美国就业数据加快走弱，支持美联储9月重启降息，降息预期是近期金价上涨的关键动 力。高盛集团在9月4日表示，如果美联储公信力受损，而投资者将一小部分美债持仓转换为黄金，金价 可能会飙升至每盎司近5000美元。 美联储本年度9月利率决策会议在当地时间9月16日到17日举办。北京时间9月18日凌晨2点，美联储 FOMC将公布利率决议结果和经济预期。凌晨2点30分鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。 CME"美联储观察工具"数据显示，市场预计美联储有95.8%的概率将在9月17日的议息会议上降息25个 基点，有4.2%的概率降息50个基点，维持现状的概率为0%。市场押注美国降息已成定局。 值得一提的是，当地时间9月15日，美联储议息名单发生两大变动：其一，特朗普提名的米兰获参议院 批准 ...

美联储即将于9月16日和17日举行议息会议，华尔街普遍预期这次会议将决定降息，降息幅度很可能为25个基点。 但也有少数市场人士预期会降息50个基点，因为美国最近的经济数据和就业数据都不是太理想。与此同时，特朗普关税所 引发的成本效应也逐渐显现，美国的消费物价似有抬头迹象。 所以，这次的美联储议息备受关注：大家关心的不是降不降息，而是市场公开委员会（FOMC）对于美国经济前景的看 法，因为这将为该委员会接下来的降息路径提供启示。 资本市场最喜欢和最害怕的，都是同一样：不确定性。 美联储对经济前景的看法、鲍威尔在议息后的会后声明，多少可厘清短期的不确定性，从而为资本指出更明确的路向。 议息会议之前，金价率先不淡定。 Wind的数据显示，伦敦现货金在亚洲交易时段午后一度突破3,690美元/盎司，再创历史新高，最高达到3,694.21美元，现报 3,688.21美元。 金价创新高，除了供需之间的基本面因素外，短期触发因素正是美元。 在美联储议息之前，美元走弱，反映市场普遍预期美联储大概率降息，这也将是2024年12月以来的第一次降息。 见下图，美元指数当前徘徊在97左右水平。 如果美联储预期美国经济和就业前景不太乐观 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market's focus is on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with particular attention to Jerome Powell's tone regarding inflation risks and uncertainties [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, and it is expected to be a significant event for market participants [1] Jerome Powell's Tone - The key factor will be Jerome Powell's emphasis on inflation risks or the uncertainty surrounding inflation outlook, which could influence market expectations for interest rate cuts [1]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 美国财长贝森特：市场正在消化从现在到年底降息75个基点的预期。 ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Risk sentiment has declined in Europe, leading to a general drop in stock markets after an initial rise earlier in the week, with UK companies facing downgrades impacting stocks like Haleon, easyJet, and Domino's Pizza [1] - The UK labor market shows signs of weakness, with job vacancies decreasing by 10,000 and an increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a stagnation in employment growth [2] - Despite a stagnant job market, wage growth remains high at 4.8%, although real wage growth adjusted for inflation is only 1%, suggesting a decline in actual income [2][3] Group 2: Interest Rates and Inflation - The UK interest rate futures market does not anticipate significant rate cuts despite the weakening labor market, with expectations of less than one cut by March and slightly over one cut by July [3] - High inflation combined with a weak labor market raises concerns about stagflation in the UK economy, complicating the economic outlook ahead of the budget [3] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Movements - The British pound has appreciated by 0.3% against the US dollar, reaching a two-month high, as the UK economy lacks support for rate cuts [4] - Gold prices have reached a new historical high, driven by a weaker dollar, with mining stocks like Fresnillo leading gains in the FTSE 100 index [6] Group 4: US Market Dynamics - Despite pressure on European markets, US stock indices are expected to rise slightly, with major tech companies like Tesla, Alphabet, and Oracle driving the S&P 500 to new highs [7] - The performance of the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants has significantly influenced the market, with potential risks if the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting does not align with market expectations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates soon, influenced by weak employment data and a stable core PCE price index, which eases inflation concerns [1][2]. Economic Data - Non-farm employment data fell short of expectations and was revised downwards, indicating a softening job market [1]. - The July core PCE price index met expectations, suggesting a moderation in inflation [1]. Market Reactions - The market has begun to preemptively engage in rate cut trades, with gold and growth assets showing early signs of response [3]. - Gold futures prices surged, breaking previous highs and closing at $3,719.50 per ounce, marking a 35% increase year-to-date [4]. Gold Market Dynamics - The strong performance of gold is attributed to historical trends showing that gold tends to perform well during rate cut cycles [4][6]. - Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive [5]. - A potential 1% shift of private sector U.S. Treasury holdings into gold could push prices to $5,000 per ounce [5]. Global Economic Context - The dollar's depreciation due to rate cuts could increase gold demand from non-dollar currencies [6]. - The current economic pressures and potential for recession or stagflation enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6]. - Historical data indicates significant gold price increases during past economic downturns, reinforcing the bullish outlook for gold [6]. Geopolitical Factors - Rising geopolitical tensions and the trend of "de-dollarization" are contributing to increased gold demand [7]. - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. credit system [7]. - Ongoing global conflicts and economic uncertainties are driving investors towards gold as a stable asset [8]. Investment Strategy - The demand for gold as a key asset in investment portfolios is expected to rise due to the aforementioned factors [8]. - Caution is advised as gold prices are currently at historical highs, suggesting potential risks in chasing prices [8].

今日黄金又冲新高，现货黄金持续走高，历史首次站上3690美元/盎司，剑指3700美元整数关口。国内的金价也跟涨，Au9999盘中也来到839.99元/g的新高 位置。国内部分品牌首饰金价也逼近1100元/克。 周二早盘黄金期货续刷新高至3731.9美元/盎司。尽管避险需求持续高企，市场观察人士正密切关注美联储本周的利率决议，普遍预期将实施降息。IG集团 分析师Chris Beaucham指出，降息将成为黄金的利好因素，因其将压制美元走势，使持有其他货币的投资者购买黄金成本降低。 最后是，全球地缘政治不确定性加剧（如中东局势、俄乌冲突），以及特朗普政府政策（如关税政策）引发全球经济担忧，促使资金涌入黄金。 目前A股与黄金主题相关的ETF有商品型ETF和股票型ETF，其中商品型ETF跟踪的指数分别是SGE黄金9999和上海金，合计跟踪ETF共有14只，最新规模为 1564.64亿元，相比去年年底的708.87亿元狂翻了1.2倍，今年合计获557.57资金净流入。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 跟踪指数名称 | 最新规模(亿元) | 年涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market is awaiting the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, leading to higher gold and silver prices. The US three major stock indexes closed higher, European three major stock indexes mostly rose, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. With the approaching September Fed meeting, gold prices strengthened again before the meeting, and silver prices followed gold prices, with the sentiment remaining strong [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. There are still risks of increased gains in silver prices due to tariff concerns [9][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The market awaited the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, causing gold prices to rise. The US three major stock indexes closed higher, European three major stock indexes mostly rose, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $3719.50 per ounce. The basis was -3.88, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2799 kilograms to 52950 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the market awaited the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, leading to higher silver prices. COMEX silver futures rose 0.84% to $43.19 per ounce. The basis was -25, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6382 kilograms to 1246569 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the expectations and the reality of the US new government's policies will continue, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, remaining prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. There are stronger tariff concerns for silver prices, and there is a risk of increased gains. The global situation is turbulent, with the resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment, the shadow Fed is significant, the expectation of interest rate cuts has risen again, the situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East are tense, inflation has resurfaced, and tariff concerns have an impact [12]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:50: Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor for Economic Affairs at the Reserve Bank of Australia, participates in a fireside chat during the 2025 AFIA Conference in Sydney. - Time TBD: The 2025 Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Conference, the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference in Ningde, Fujian, and the 2025 BRICS New Industrial Revolution Partnership Forum are held. - 14:00: UK July three - month ILO employment figures and unemployment rate are released. - 14:30: Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwart - Narueput holds a briefing on the economy and monetary policy. - 15:00: European Central Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus presents the economic outlook report for Lithuania. - Time TBD: US President Trump visits the UK, possibly lasting until September 18, accompanied by executives from companies such as Nvidia, OpenAI, and BlackRock. - 16:00: European Central Bank Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva speaks in Madrid, Spain. - 17:00: Germany's September ZEW economic sentiment index is released. - 19:00: The Bank of Spain releases a new economic outlook report. - 20:30: US August retail sales, August import and export price indexes, and Canada's August CPI are released. - Time TBD: The two - day FOMC monetary policy meeting of the Fed begins. - 21:15: US August industrial production data is released. - 22:00: US September NAHB housing market index and July business inventory data are released [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold and Silver Price Movements**: The report shows the price movements of various gold and silver products, including Shanghai gold and silver futures, COMEX gold and silver futures, SGE gold and silver T + D, London gold and silver spot prices, and the US dollar index [15]. - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping 3.64 basis points to 4.034% [4][5][25]. - **ETF Holdings**: SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased, and silver ETF holdings continued to decrease but were higher than the same period in the past two years [33][36]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level, while Shanghai gold warehouse receipts remained flat. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly but were higher than the same period last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to increase, with renewed tariff concerns [37][39]. 5. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions**: As of September 15, 2025, the long positions were 250,048, a decrease of 1,099 (-0.44%) compared to September 14; the short positions were 85,595, an increase of 1,315 (1.56%); the net positions were 164,453, a decrease of 2,414 (-1.45%) [30]. - **Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions**: As of September 15, 2025, the long positions were 375,292, a decrease of 10,769 (-2.79%) compared to September 12; the short positions were 279,860, a decrease of 5,297 (-1.86%); the net positions were 95,432, a decrease of 5,472 (-5.42%) [31].

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 842.08 CNY per gram on September 16, with a daily increase of 1.14% and a trading volume of 152,819 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 835.80 CNY per gram, reflecting a discount of 6.28 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - International gold prices reached 3,678.69 USD per ounce, up 0.99%, with an intraday high of 3,685 USD [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The New York Fed manufacturing index dropped sharply by 21 points to -8.7, significantly below the market expectation of 5, indicating a decline in new orders and shipments to the lowest levels since April 2024 [1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August, marking a nearly four-year high, which has intensified market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - According to Guangfa Futures, the market is experiencing volatility ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with President Trump pressuring for a rate cut, which has led to a weaker dollar and increased demand for gold as a safe haven [2] - The silver market is supported by expectations of Federal Reserve easing, overseas physical demand, and ETF inflows, despite domestic policy impacts and weak industrial demand [3][4]