1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The decline momentum of international oil prices is expected to slow down this week, and attention should be paid to the progress of the China - US talks in Malaysia and the Russia - US talks [2]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily and look for buying opportunities after stabilization [3]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [4]. - Aluminum prices will continue to oscillate in the short term [5]. - Alumina will mainly operate weakly [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy will continue to follow the movement of aluminum prices [7]. - Zinc prices have strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton, and the short - term rebound height depends on zinc ingot exports and downstream consumption [8]. - Nickel should be traded with a short - selling mindset [10]. - Tin should continue with a short - selling strategy [11]. - The price trend of lithium carbonate futures is to be clarified [12]. - The industrial silicon futures market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [13]. - Polysilicon will generally maintain an oscillating trend [14]. - Steel prices will continue to oscillate in the short term [15]. - Iron ore will mainly oscillate at a high level [16]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to rise rather than fall [17][18]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices will oscillate narrowly [19][20]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to maintain a relatively strong operation in the near future [21]. - Fuel oil has a "strong present, weak future" pattern, and low - sulfur fuel oil supply will remain loose [22]. - The asphalt market will maintain a tight - balance pattern in the short term, and the price has bottom support [23]. - LPG will continue to oscillate narrowly [24]. - Urea will continue to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. - Methanol in the coastal market will maintain an oscillating trend within a range [26]. - Pure benzene futures prices will oscillate at a low level [27]. - Styrene will continue its downward trend [28]. - Polypropylene, plastic, and propylene futures prices are in a downward trend [29]. - PVC may oscillate weakly, and caution is advised when short - selling caustic soda [30]. - PX and PTA prices will continue to be weak, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory [31]. - Ethylene glycol will continue to oscillate around 4000 [32]. - Short - fiber is recommended for short - term long - allocation, while bottle - chip processing margins will be under pressure [33]. - Glass is expected to have a limited downward range, and attention can be paid to selling out - of - the - money put options [34]. - Natural rubber can be considered for a rebound after a sharp decline [35]. - Soda ash is recommended to short after a rebound [36]. - It is recommended to wait and see for soybeans and soybean meal [37]. - It is recommended to long - allocate oils at low prices in the medium - to - long - term [38]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are recommended for short - term long - trading [39]. - Short - term attention should be paid to the acquisition of domestic soybeans and policy guidance [40]. - Corn will continue to operate weakly at the bottom [41]. - After the rebound of hog prices, it is recommended to short at high prices [42]. - Eggs are recommended to be short - sold [43]. - Cotton will oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Attention should be paid to the weather and sugarcane growth in the new sugar - making season [45]. - It is recommended to wait and see for apples [46]. - Wood is recommended for long - trading [47]. - It is recommended to wait and see for pulp [48]. - The stock index market style may rotate in the short term, and focus on the technology - growth sector in the medium term [49]. - The yield curve steepening of treasury bond futures is expected to end [50]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with the Brent December contract up 1.18%. Last week, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels more than expected, and gasoline and refined oil inventories also declined. The continuous production - increase strategy of OPEC+ and the sequential decline in demand after the peak oil - consumption season still bring medium - term supply - demand loosening pressure to the market. But considering that international oil prices are approaching the low point in April during the trade war and the net long positions in foreign - exchange crude oil futures and options have also fallen to the low end of the range, the decline momentum of oil prices is expected to slow down this week without additional negative news [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight, fuel oil followed crude oil with a large - amplitude oscillating trend of opening high and then falling. High - sulfur fuel oil maintains a "strong present, weak future" pattern, and low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to remain loose [22]. - **Asphalt**: The national weekly asphalt operating rate decreased month - on - month. Terminal demand in the north was blocked by significant cooling, and rainfall in the south also dragged down the rigid demand. It is expected that the demand in October will be weaker than expected. The social inventory is steadily decreasing, and the factory inventory is also decreasing but at a slow pace. The asphalt market remains in a tight - balance pattern in the short term, and the price has bottom support [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The LPG main contract continued to oscillate narrowly, and the far - month contract was under relatively more pressure. This week, the supply increased slightly. The current chemical demand increased, while the combustion demand was relatively flat. The weekly refinery and port inventories both decreased [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, gold and silver prices tumbled and have been fluctuating significantly for many days. Recently, there have been some signs of easing in Sino - US trade. The Russia - Ukraine issue and the US government shutdown are in a critical stage of the game, and risk sentiment is fluctuating. Precious metals are currently overbought in the short term and are being corrected. After the correction, they may form a high - level oscillating platform. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily and look for buying opportunities after stabilization [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated and closed down. Supported by the gold - copper ratio, copper prices showed strong resilience during the adjustment. The Shanghai copper was traded around 85,000 yuan. The market is concerned about the changes in domestic and foreign stock markets. The domestic spot copper was reported at 85,730 yuan, with a premium of 50 yuan in Shanghai. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Since August, the apparent consumption of the aluminum market has been basically flat year - on - year. At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 0.2 million tons compared with last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory remained unchanged. Since the National Day, the inventory performance has been neutral, and the fundamental driving force is limited. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum will continue to oscillate and test the previous high resistance [5]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory continues to rise. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot indexes in various regions continue to decline. In September, the average cost in Shanxi and Henan was about 3000 yuan. The current index price is not yet low enough to trigger cash - loss production cuts in Shanxi and Henan but is approaching that level. Alumina will mainly operate weakly [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,600 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax - rate policy increases the enterprise cost. However, the industry inventory is at a high level, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts reaching 45,000 tons. Cast aluminum alloy will continue to follow the movement of aluminum prices [7]. - **Zinc**: The spot premium of LME zinc for 0 - 3 months has risen rapidly. The tight spot market has driven up the foreign - exchange price. Fundamentally, the domestic market is weak while the foreign market is strong. The spot export window for zinc has opened, and the foreign market has pulled up the domestic market. Short - sellers of Shanghai zinc reduced their positions at low prices, and the price rebounded slightly. The price ratio is not conducive to the import of ore, and with the approaching of winter storage, the TC of imported ore is gradually rising, while the TC of domestic ore continues to decline. Shanghai zinc has strong support at 21,500 yuan/ton. In the short term, the rebound height of zinc prices depends on zinc ingot exports and downstream consumption. The price difference between domestic and foreign markets has not effectively converged. Attention should be paid to the third - quarter production data of overseas smelters. With the high price of LME zinc, overseas smelters have some room to increase production [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated narrowly, and the market trading was average. The recovery of downstream demand during the peak consumption season was limited, and the market trading was relatively light. The social inventory has stopped decreasing and started to increase. The confidence in the spot market is generally weak, and the trading is light. The price of ferronickel is 941 yuan per nickel point, and the support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, which may drag down the overall price level of the nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory increased by nearly 4000 tons to 47,700 tons, the ferronickel inventory decreased by 200 tons to 29,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory soared by 50,000 tons to 953,000 tons. Technically, Shanghai nickel is in a weak position, and a short - selling mindset is recommended [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, both domestic and foreign tin prices closed up. In September, the import volume of domestic tin concentrates decreased by nearly 30% month - on - month due to the impact of the African region, while the supply from Myanmar slightly recovered. Short - sellers at high positions should hold their positions against the 282,000 - yuan level and the MA10 moving average. A short - selling strategy should be continued [11]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: Overnight, the iron - ore futures oscillated. On the supply side, the global shipments increased month - on - month and were stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume decreased from a high level but was still stronger than the annual average and the same period last year. The port inventory increased significantly. On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel increased month - on - month but was still at a low level year - on - year. The molten - iron output decreased slightly from a high level. As the peak season for terminals gradually ends and the steel - mill profit shrinks to a low level, the pressure for molten - iron production cuts in the future is gradually increasing. External trade frictions are recurring, and there are still concerns about the negative feedback in the industrial chain. However, with the convening of important domestic meetings, the market still has certain expectations for policy benefits. Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. - **Coke**: The intraday price oscillated downward. The second round of price increases for coking has started. The coking profit is average, and the daily output decreased slightly. The coke inventory continued to decrease slightly. Currently, downstream users are purchasing on a small - scale and as - needed basis, mainly consuming inventory, and the purchasing willingness of traders is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the high - level molten - iron production at downstream provides support for carbon elements. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The coke futures are slightly at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety - production assessment in the main coking - coal producing areas, which is expected to push up the coke cost. The price is likely to rise rather than fall [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The intraday price oscillated downward. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions improved, and the transaction prices mainly increased. The terminal inventory increased. The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. After the holiday, the production did not increase significantly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the high - level molten - iron production at downstream provides support for raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The coking - coal futures are slightly at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety - production assessment in the main coking - coal producing areas. The price is likely to rise rather than fall [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The intraday price oscillated narrowly. Attention should be paid to the tender - pricing news of a large steel mill in the north. Currently, the inquiry price is 5800 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton lower than the transaction price in September. On the demand side, the molten - iron output remains at a high level. The weekly output of silicon - manganese decreased slightly and remains at a relatively high level. The silicon - manganese inventory decreased slightly, and the spot and futures demand is still good. The forward - looking quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the futures price. The manganese - ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The intraday price oscillated narrowly. Attention should be paid to the steel - tender news. On the demand side, the molten - iron output remains at a high level. The export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The silicon - iron supply remains at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continues to decrease. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [20]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The futures prices of polypropylene, plastic, and propylene continued to decline. In the spot market, prices fell to a new low for the year. Production enterprises showed a strong willingness to stabilize the market, and the purchasing willingness of downstream factories increased, resulting in an increase in market transactions and an improvement in the overall trading atmosphere. In the polyethylene market, there is a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, and many are waiting for news - based guidance. The cost support is weakening, and the supply side has certain pressure, so the market mostly offers small discounts for sales. For polypropylene, the impact of new production capacity and the weakening of device - maintenance efforts are expected to increase the supply. The follow - up of new orders after the holiday is less than expected, and there are still obstacles to the consumption of finished - product inventory. In addition, the low profit level of downstream enterprises restricts their purchasing enthusiasm [29]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC oscillated. The maintenance of enterprises has gradually ended, and the supply is expected to increase. Domestic demand is stable at a low level, and foreign - trade exports are mainly for concentrated delivery. In September, exports continued to perform well, but with the upcoming anti - dumping duties and BIS policies, future exports will face downward pressure. The price of calcium carbide has recently stabilized, but the profit of chlor - alkali integration is good, and the cost support is not obvious. The weak - reality pattern continues, and PVC may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda oscillated narrowly. Shandong maintenance enterprises are gradually resuming production, and other regions have maintenance plans, so the supply may fluctuate slightly. Non - aluminum downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, and the liquid - caustic soda inventory decreased month - on - month. The profit of alumina is compressed, and the current output change is not significant. Attention should be paid to the subsequent implementation of new production capacity. The non - aluminum demand growth is limited. The downstream replenishment demand for caustic soda has not been disproven, and the basis is relatively high. Caution is advised when short - selling [30]. - **PX and PTA**: PX has recently undergone maintenance, and the supply has contracted periodically. PTA enterprises plan to start new devices and shut down old ones, and several maintenance devices are about to end, so the supply is expected to increase. The e - commerce sales window period and the nationwide cooling may boost the sentiment in the textile and clothing market. Yesterday, the sales of polyester yarn were strong, and downstream enterprises increased their inventory. From the perspective of industrial - chain valuation, the short - process profit of PX declined, and the long - process profit was neutral. The PTA processing margin oscillated at a low level, and the polyester profit improved. Overall, with the weakening of oil prices and the expectation of weakening industrial - chain demand, the prices of PX and PTA continued to be weak, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory. An anti - spread strategy is recommended. Attention should be paid to the possible improvement in demand under the influence of factors such as the improvement in downstream profit, the e - commerce sales window period, and cooling [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overnight, ethylene glycol continued to oscillate around 4000. The domestic operating rate decreased slightly, and the weekly arrival and shipping volumes decreased. The port inventory continued to increase. The weakening of crude oil has narrowed the loss of the naphtha - integrated

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating to the black building materials industry, with the overall outlook being "sideways" [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the black building materials sector were generally stable yesterday, but steel and iron ore prices on the futures market continued to face pressure, dragging down coal and coke products. As the traditional off - season approaches, the actual demand for steel is unlikely to improve significantly. With the approaching of the blast furnace maintenance season for steel enterprises, there are still expectations of negative feedback in the industrial chain. However, in late October, the expectation of positive news from domestic and foreign macro - level meetings has increased, and short - term sector varieties are expected to remain volatile. Attention can be paid to the rebound opportunities under the background of policy introduction [2][3] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The fundamentals of iron ore have slightly weakened at the margin, but the overall pressure is not prominent. With the still - existing macro - level expectation disturbances, a slight recovery in steel demand, and uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations, the short - term price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range. - Scrap steel: The contradictions in the scrap steel market are not prominent. With the current pressure on finished steel prices and poor EAF profits, the short - term price of scrap steel is expected to follow the trend of finished steel [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: In the short term, the supply and demand of coke are tight. With the deterioration of coking profits, the second - round price increase has been initiated. However, steel mills' profits are also poor, and the game between coking plants and steel mills continues. Whether the price increase can be implemented remains to be seen. The price of coke is expected to fluctuate. - Coking coal: Under the background of "anti - involution" and over - production inspections, the release of supply - side production capacity is restricted. The demand side still has rigid demand support from short - term coke production. With low inventories upstream, the fundamentals are relatively healthy. The price of coking coal is expected to fluctuate [2] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: Cost, high steel production, and macro - policy expectations support the price of manganese silicon, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the medium - to - long - term price center may still decline. - Ferrosilicon: Ferrosilicon is also supported by high finished steel production, policy expectations, and cost. However, the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the price still faces downward pressure in the later stage [2] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot sales of glass are weak. After the synchronous decline of the spot and futures markets, the short - term price fluctuates weakly. Currently, the middle - stream has not significantly reduced inventory, and there is little chance of a short - term rebound. In the long - term, market - based capacity reduction is still needed. If the market refocuses on fundamentals, the price may continue to decline. - Soda ash: The pattern of over - supply in the soda ash market remains unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely following macro - level changes in the future, and the long - term price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [3] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - Steel: The recovery of post - holiday demand is limited, and steel inventories are at a moderately high level. Fundamental contradictions still exist, and the upper limit of the futures price is suppressed. With important domestic meetings this week, attention should be paid to policy - related disturbances. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [7] - Iron ore: The short - term price is expected to fluctuate due to marginal weakening of fundamentals, macro - level disturbances, and uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations [7] - Scrap steel: With its own fundamentals having no prominent contradictions, the short - term price is expected to follow the trend of finished steel due to pressure on finished steel prices and poor EAF profits [9] - Coke: In the short term, the supply and demand of coke remain tight. With the continuous deterioration of coking profits, the second - round price increase has been initiated, but it still needs time to be implemented. The price is expected to fluctuate [11] - Coking coal: With supply still restricted and good auction results, the price is expected to fluctuate [10][11] - Glass: The spot sales are weak, and the short - term price fluctuates weakly. There is little chance of a short - term rebound. In the long - term, it is expected to decline if the market focuses on fundamentals [12] - Soda ash: The over - supply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely following macro - level changes, and the long - term price center will decline [14] - Manganese silicon: Cost, high steel production, and macro - policy expectations support the price, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the price center may decline [14][15] - Ferrosilicon: Although supported by high finished steel production, policy expectations, and cost, the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the price still faces downward pressure [16] 3.6 Index Information - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index was 2239.21, up 0.35%; the commodity 20 index was 2544.06, up 0.41%; the industrial products index was 2185.29, up 0.06%; the PPI commodity index was 1323.60, up 0.10%. - Plate Index: The steel industry chain index on October 21, 2025, was 1968.47, with a daily decline of 0.39%, a 5 - day increase of 0.42%, a 1 - month decline of 2.87%, and a decline of 6.63% since the beginning of the year [102][103]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bond market is experiencing a recovery due to increased risk aversion amid escalating trade tensions, with expectations of policy support and a shift in sentiment following changes in fund redemption rules [1][2] - The 30-year government bond yield has decreased by over 8 basis points, with yields for 30-year and 10-year bonds recorded at 2.0680% and 1.7475% respectively, indicating a positive response in the bond market [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with GDP growth slowing to 4.8% and pressures on both investment and consumption sectors, highlighting the need for further policy intervention [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S.-China trade relationship is a critical variable influencing bond market trends, with the likelihood of extreme tariff measures being low, suggesting a potential for negotiation rather than escalation [2] - The third quarter has shown a significant decline in investment growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure, reflecting ongoing domestic demand issues [4] - The upcoming meetings, including the 20th National Congress, are expected to impact market risk appetite and may lead to more proactive counter-cyclical policies, which could affect bond market sentiment [5][7]

Group 1 - The article highlights Trump's bold claims regarding the upcoming US-China trade negotiations, suggesting he believes he will "win" despite the lack of substantive discussions [1] - Trump asserts that China is currently paying tariffs as high as 55%, which could rise to 155% if negotiations fail, indicating a precarious position for the US in trade talks [1][3] - The article points out that Trump's reliance on tariffs as a negotiation tool may be outdated, as global economic dynamics are shifting [1][3] Group 2 - The article raises concerns about the optimism surrounding Trump's potential visit to China, noting the ongoing pressure on Chinese companies from the US and the fragile state of US-China relations [3] - It emphasizes that the use of tariffs could destabilize global trade and negatively impact American companies, particularly those reliant on the Chinese market, such as Boeing [3][5] - The historical context suggests that mere rhetoric and confidence cannot replace necessary policy adjustments in significant national negotiations [5] Group 3 - The article argues that the US-China trade relationship transcends economic issues, becoming a geopolitical contest, and that tariffs alone cannot address the complexities of international relations [5][7] - It stresses the importance of genuine diplomatic strategies and cooperation with major economies to avoid the pitfalls of a trade war [5][7] - The future of US-China relations will depend on both parties finding a way to navigate their differences and the US demonstrating real commitment to fair trade practices [5][7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] 2) Core Views of the Report - **Overall View** - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the overall trend remaining bearish. The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, but its demand is mainly for rigid needs, and it has recently adjusted at high levels, suggesting short - term observation [2] - **Rapeseed Meal View** - Internationally, the harvest of Canadian rapeseed is nearly complete, and the bumper harvest has put pressure on prices. The US soybean harvest is progressing actively, and the expected bumper harvest restricts prices. Although the US soybean crushing volume has increased significantly, the export pressure remains due to the lack of progress in Sino - US trade relations. - Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is still restricted, resulting in less supply - side pressure. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is decreasing as the temperature drops and the aquaculture demand weakens. Additionally, the abundant supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weaken the demand for rapeseed meal [2] - **Rapeseed Oil View** - Internationally, the Indonesian government plans to increase biodiesel to B50 in the second half of next year, and the US biodiesel blending volume increased in September, which is beneficial to the international oil market. - Domestically, the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping policy for Canadian rapeseed has been announced. The supply of imported rapeseed will be structurally tightened in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed oil will continue to be in the de - stocking mode. However, the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil limit the demand for rapeseed oil [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures closing price of the active contract decreased by 54 yuan/ton, the monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 12 yuan/ton, the main contract position decreased by 9161 hands, the net long position of the top 20 futures decreased by 3453 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 50 sheets [2] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The futures closing price of the active contract decreased by 29 yuan/ton, the monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 27 yuan/ton, the main contract position increased by 13879 hands, the net long position of the top 20 futures decreased by 12187 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7540 sheets [2] - **Rapeseed**: The futures closing price of the active contract decreased by 1 yuan/ton, and the closing price of ICE rapeseed increased by 51 Canadian dollars/ton [2] Spot Market - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Nantong decreased by 30 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract increased by 24 yuan/ton, and the spot price difference with soybean meal remained unchanged [2] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton, the average price decreased by 20.36 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract increased by 9 yuan/ton, the spot price difference with soybean oil remained unchanged, and the spot price difference with palm oil decreased by 100 yuan/ton [2] - **Rapeseed**: The import cost price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Yancheng, Jiangsu increased by 0.02 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The annual predicted output of rapeseed increased by 1.38 thousand tons, and the global predicted output of rapeseed increased by 1068 thousand tons. The import volume of rapeseed decreased by 26 thousand tons, the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil decreased by 8.72 thousand tons, and the import volume of rapeseed meal decreased by 0.8 thousand tons [2] Industry Situation - **Rapeseed Meal**: The import rapeseed crushing profit decreased by 13.13 yuan/ton, the weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed remained at 0%, the coastal inventory decreased by 0.8 thousand tons, the East China inventory decreased by 1 thousand tons, and the South China inventory increased by 0.1 thousand tons. The weekly delivery volume increased by 1.41 thousand tons [2] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased by 0.53 thousand tons, the coastal inventory decreased by 0.37 thousand tons, the East China inventory decreased by 0.7 thousand tons, and the Guangxi inventory decreased by 0.4 thousand tons. The weekly delivery volume decreased by 0.12 thousand tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail reached 99.9 billion yuan. The monthly output of feed was 2927.2 thousand tons, and the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 450.6 thousand tons [2] Option Market - For rapeseed meal, the implied volatility of at - the - money put options increased by 0.13%, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options remained unchanged at 21.35%, the 20 - day historical volatility increased by 0.05%, and the 60 - day historical volatility increased by 0.15% [2] - For rapeseed oil, the implied volatility of at - the - money put options decreased by 0.08%, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options remained unchanged at 13.84%, the 20 - day historical volatility increased by 0.05%, and the 60 - day historical volatility increased by 0.05% [2] Industry News - The most actively traded January rapeseed futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed down 0.30 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 630 Canadian dollars/ton. The harvest in the US Midwest is progressing actively, and the expected bumper harvest of US soybeans restricts prices. The export pressure of US soybeans remains, but the large increase in the crushing volume supports prices [2] Key Points to Watch - Monitor the rapeseed opening rate, the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in various regions, and the trends of Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations, especially the Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade policies [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Macro - China's Q3 GDP growth slowed, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The GDP deflator showed a marginal rebound. The production side remained resilient in September, while the demand side declined. Fiscal measures are expected to support the economy, and the key to economic recovery lies in the repair of domestic demand [1][2]. - The US government shutdown has led to a data vacuum, and the market's concerns about the economy have eased, but risks remain. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but the actual impact may be limited due to market pre - pricing [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Despite the US government shutdown and delayed economic data, the US dollar index has not fallen significantly. The People's Bank of China aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. The USD/RMB spot exchange rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock market has been oscillating, and the trading volume has shrunk. The market is waiting for the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations and policy signals from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [6][7]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market adjusted after a rebound last week. The slowdown in GDP growth, weak investment and consumption, and the downward trend in the real estate market support low - level interest rates. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to influence the bond market [7]. Container Shipping (European Routes) - The spot index has rebounded, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved fundamentally. The futures market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [8][9][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is facing a directional choice, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and interest rate cut expectations [14][16]. - Aluminum: The macro - environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are stable. The Shanghai aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [17]. - Alumina: It is in an oversupply situation, and a bearish view is maintained before large - scale production cuts [18]. - Zinc: The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and macro - driving factors [19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They are following the market's oscillation. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [20]. - Tin: It is expected to be bullish in the long term, with a stable wave - like upward trend in the medium and short term [21][22]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The price of industrial silicon may rise slightly in the future, and the impact of polysilicon production cuts needs to be observed [22][23]. - Lead: The price is expected to oscillate with a certain downward possibility [24]. Black Metals - Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): The demand has recovered slightly but is still lower than in previous years. The supply needs to be adjusted through production cuts. The price may rebound slightly but is likely to fall back later [26]. - Iron Ore: It is under pressure, with a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern. The price is expected to be affected by policy signals [27][28]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market has support at the bottom but is restricted by the downstream steel market. A volatile trading strategy is recommended [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: They have high inventories and weak downstream demand. The price is under pressure without significant stimulus policies [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors have weakened, and macro - factors are negative. The price is expected to decline in the medium and long term [33][34]. - LPG: It is oscillating, with the domestic fundamentals changing little [36][37]. - PTA - PX: The macro - expectation is not optimistic, and the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US trade negotiations [38][40]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: The valuation is under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to macro - factors [41][42]. - Methanol: The price range is expected to be 2250 - 2350, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [44]. - PP: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure. The macro - environment also has a negative impact [46][47]. - PE: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is affected by the macro - environment [48][50]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. A strategy of narrowing the price difference is recommended in the short term [51][52]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is expected to decline, and the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is weak [54][55]. - Asphalt: The short - term performance is not outstanding. Attention should be paid to macro - meetings and new demand points [57][58]. - Urea: It is under pressure and oscillating. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and macro - sentiment [59]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: They are fluctuating at a low level. The supply of soda ash is expected to be high, glass has high inventory and weak demand, and caustic soda needs to wait for the market to bottom out [60][61][63]. - Pulp and Offset Paper: Pulp is oscillating, and offset paper is under pressure [63][64]. - Logs: There is a marginal positive impact on the far - month price, but there are uncertainties. A cautious long - position strategy is recommended for the far - month contract [65][66]. - Propylene: It continues to be weak, with a loose supply and cost pressure [67][68]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The supply is still excessive, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to farmers' replenishment behavior, and long - term attention should be paid to capacity - reduction policies [70][71]. - Oilseeds: For soybeans, the supply may face a gap in the first quarter of next year. The demand for soybean meal will maintain a certain level. Rapeseed meal will see accelerated inventory reduction, and the trading opportunity needs to be determined by warehouse receipts [72]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and the September economic data showed different trends in production and demand. The LPR remained unchanged, and there were developments in Sino - US trade and international political situations [1]. - The US government shutdown and the expected Fed interest rate cut are important factors affecting the market [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose slightly, and the central parity rate was adjusted down. Sino - US trade negotiations and economic data are the focus [3]. - The central bank's policy aims to maintain exchange rate stability, and the exchange rate is expected to be stable within a reasonable range [4]. Stock Index - The stock market opened higher and oscillated, with a decline in trading volume. Important economic data, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the Fourth Plenary Session are influencing factors [6]. - The market is waiting for policy signals, and the trading volume is shrinking, indicating a strong wait - and - see sentiment [7]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market adjusted after a rebound. The GDP growth slowdown and other economic data support low - level interest rates. The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to affect the bond market [7]. Container Shipping (European Routes) - The futures market rose, and the spot index rebounded significantly. However, the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved fundamentally [9]. - The market is affected by multiple factors, and the futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [10][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price of copper futures rose, and the inventory situation changed. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and interest rate cut expectations [14][15][16]. - Aluminum: The macro - environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are stable. The Shanghai aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level [17]. - Alumina: It is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure [18]. - Zinc: The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and macro - driving factors [19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They are following the market's oscillation, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly [20]. - Tin: It is expected to be bullish in the long term, with a stable wave - like upward trend in the medium and short term [21][22]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The price of industrial silicon may rise slightly in the future, and the impact of polysilicon production cuts needs to be observed [22][23]. - Lead: The price is expected to oscillate with a certain downward possibility [24]. Black Metals - Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): The demand has recovered slightly but is still lower than in previous years. The supply needs to be adjusted through production cuts. The price may rebound slightly but is likely to fall back later [26]. - Iron Ore: It is under pressure, with a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern. The price is expected to be affected by policy signals [27][28]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market has support at the bottom but is restricted by the downstream steel market. A volatile trading strategy is recommended [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: They have high inventories and weak downstream demand. The price is under pressure without significant stimulus policies [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors have weakened, and macro - factors are negative. The price is expected to decline in the medium and long term [33][34]. - LPG: It is oscillating, with the domestic fundamentals changing little [36][37]. - PTA - PX: The macro - expectation is not optimistic, and the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US trade negotiations [38][40]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: The valuation is under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to macro - factors [41][42]. - Methanol: The price range is expected to be 2250 - 2350, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [44]. - PP: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure. The macro - environment also has a negative impact [46][47]. - PE: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is affected by the macro - environment [48][50]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. A strategy of narrowing the price difference is recommended in the short term [51][52]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is expected to decline, and the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is weak [54][55]. - Asphalt: The short - term performance is not outstanding. Attention should be paid to macro - meetings and new demand points [57][58]. - Urea: It is under pressure and oscillating. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and macro - sentiment [59]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: They are fluctuating at a low level. The supply of soda ash is expected to be high, glass has high inventory and weak demand, and caustic soda needs to wait for the market to bottom out [60][61][63]. - Pulp and Offset Paper: Pulp is oscillating, and offset paper is under pressure [63][64]. - Logs: There is a marginal positive impact on the far - month price, but there are uncertainties. A cautious long - position strategy is recommended for the far - month contract [65][66]. - Propylene: It continues to be weak, with a loose supply and cost pressure [67][68]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The supply is still excessive, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to farmers' replenishment behavior, and long - term attention should be paid to capacity - reduction policies [70][71]. - Oilseeds: For soybeans, the supply may face a gap in the first quarter of next year. The demand for soybean meal will maintain a certain level. Rapeseed meal will see accelerated inventory reduction, and the trading opportunity needs to be determined by warehouse receipts [72].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - Gold is expected to have a long - term strong performance, with short - term and medium - term upward trends and an intraday view of being oscillatingly strong, driven by the unchanged medium - to - long - term upward trend and Sino - US frictions [1] - Copper is also considered to have a long - term strong outlook, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday upward trends, due to factors such as resurgent mine - end disturbances, increased capital attention, and intensified Sino - US trade fluctuations [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: The gold market has experienced a volatile "roller - coaster" ride, with New York gold fluctuating fiercely in the 4200 - 4400 range, and an intraday amplitude of over 3%. Last week, after hitting a new high, the price dropped significantly, with spot gold falling nearly $130 from the record high and an intraday decline of over 2%. Yesterday, the price bottomed out and rebounded near the 5 - day moving average, approaching the previous high again [3] - **Driving Factors**: In the short term, as the gold price rises sharply, the willingness of funds to take profits increases rapidly, leading to intensified price fluctuations. Technically, the support of the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages below and the pressure of the previous high above can be monitored [3] Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Since late September, copper prices have witnessed a significant upward trend [4] - **Driving Factors**: Supply - side, global copper mine supply disruptions are the key drivers. On the macro - level, the Fed's interest rate cuts in September and October, along with the positive signal of easing Sino - US trade relations, support the copper price. On the demand side, there is a situation of strong expectation but weak reality, with some copper processing enterprises reporting shrinking terminal orders and increased wait - and - see sentiment due to high prices. Overall, macro - level easing and supply contraction continue to drive up the copper price, while short - term industrial demand decline and high COMEX inventories may suppress it, and the pressure of the previous high should be continuously monitored [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean/Protein Meal**: In the short - term, the high domestic soybean inventory and the lack of progress in U.S. soybean imports, along with the bean meal de - stocking season, offer some support. In the medium - term, with the global soybean supply remaining loose, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: The current situation shows a balanced or slightly loose supply - demand, but the future is expected to be tight. Before the inventories in sales areas and production areas are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback in demand in sales areas, the strategy is to buy on dips in the medium - term [5][7]. - **Sugar**: Considering the high sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere's main producing countries in the new season, the general trend is bearish, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds in the fourth quarter [9][11]. - **Cotton**: Due to the resurgence of Sino - U.S. trade conflicts, weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, low downstream industry operating rates, and the expected domestic bumper harvest, the upward space for cotton prices is limited, and it may continue to oscillate weakly [13][14]. - **Eggs**: The spot price has a limited rebound expectation due to high supply. The futures market is in a weak bottom - building phase, and it is advisable to wait and see [16][17]. - **Pigs**: The fundamental situation is oversupply. The short - term spot price rebound is limited, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds for both near - term and far - term contracts [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Protein Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose due to Trump's friendly remarks and strong U.S. domestic spot prices. On Monday, the domestic bean meal spot price was flat, with weak trading but good pick - up. The inventory days of domestic feed enterprises decreased by 0.41 days to 7.93 days last week, port soybean inventory started to decline, and oil mill bean meal inventory continued to decrease. MYSTEEL expects the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume to be 233.35 million tons this week, up from 216.6 million tons last week. As of October 18, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 21.7%, up from 11.1% last week, compared with 17.6% last year and a five - year average of 27.7% [2]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rebounds in the medium - term [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 3.4%. From October 1 - 15, its production increased by 6.86% month - on - month. As of October 17, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 57.57 million tons, up 5.13% week - on - week and 11.59% year - on - year; the national key area soybean oil commercial inventory was 122.4 million tons, down 3.25% week - on - week. On Monday, domestic oils oscillated with no obvious driving force. The international palm oil supply - demand is currently balanced, with a tight expectation in the first quarter of next year. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the medium - term [7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5428 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants all decreased by 20 yuan/ton. In the second half of September, Brazil's central - southern region had a 5.1% year - on - year increase in cane crushing volume, a 10.76% increase in sugar production, and a 3.44 - percentage - point increase in the cane - to - sugar ratio. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rebounds in the fourth quarter [11]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 13465 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Chinese cotton was flat. As of October 17, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, up 0.2% week - on - week but down 7.6 percentage points year - on - year and 10.22 percentage points lower than the five - year average. In September 2025, China imported 10 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 2 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: The upward space for cotton prices is limited, and it may continue to oscillate weakly [14]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price dropped yesterday. The main production area's average price fell to 2.85 yuan/jin. Supply is normal, market sales are slow, and downstream procurement is cautious. It is expected that the national egg price will mostly decline today, with a few areas remaining stable [16]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the futures market is in a weak bottom - building phase [17]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly rose yesterday. However, there is a risk that the product price may not follow the increase, and the demand may decrease. The farmers' enthusiasm for selling is low, and some slaughterhouses still have a supply shortage. Today, the pig price may slightly increase with limited gains [19]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rebounds as the fundamental situation is oversupply [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6][7][8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 20, 2025, the main economic indicators for September were announced. Data in real estate, infrastructure, and other fields related to black building materials remained poor. The prices of leading sector varieties dropped from their intraday highs and remained under pressure at night. The demand side of the industry continued to be weak. With the "15th Five - Year Plan" meeting underway, the market still expects policy benefits to boost confidence [1][2] - Entering late October, the traditional peak season is ending, and with tariff disturbances, the demand side is unlikely to perform well. Although high molten iron still supports the furnace charge in the short term, the market's negative feedback expectation strengthens as the peak season ends. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the "15th Five - Year Plan" meeting releasing sector benefits [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments rebounded slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped from a high level. The demand side saw a slight decline in the average daily output of sample molten iron and the steel mill profitability rate, but molten iron remained at a high level. Port inventories continued to accumulate. The fundamentals of iron ore weakened marginally, but the overall pressure was not prominent. Policy expectations may cause fluctuations, and steel demand improved slightly. The future of Sino - US trade relations is uncertain, so short - term prices are expected to oscillate [2][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume at steel mills decreased, and the electric furnace profit improved slightly. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no obvious contradictions. With the current pressure on finished product prices and poor electric furnace profits, short - term prices are expected to follow finished products [2][10] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The short - term supply and demand of coke remained tight. With rising costs, the second price increase was initiated, but steel prices were still weak. The price increase needs time to be implemented, and coke prices are expected to oscillate [2][11][13] - **Coking Coal**: Supply disturbances continued, and the production increment space of coal mines was limited. With low inventories, the fundamentals were healthy. Coking coal prices are expected to oscillate [2][11][12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term high costs, peak demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still room for the price center to decline in the future [3][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term peak demand season, policy expectations, and firm costs support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and there is still downward pressure on prices [3][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Spot sales and production are weak. After the negative feedback between futures and spot, short - term prices show an oscillating and weakening trend. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and prices are expected to oscillate downward [3][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro - changes and oscillate widely. In the long run, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [3][14] 3.5 Steel - The fundamentals of steel still have contradictions. After the National Day, the demand for five major steel products recovered to a limited extent, and the inventory level is still moderately high. With the domestic important meeting this week, attention should be paid to policy disturbances, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On October 20, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity 20 index was 2533.64, down 0.15%; the industrial products index was 2183.97, up 0.37%. The steel industry chain index was 1976.21, up 0.55% on the day, up 0.13% in the past 5 days, down 1.65% in the past month, and down 6.26% since the beginning of the year [102][104]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. needs to develop a comprehensive strategy beyond just rare earth mining to effectively counter China's influence in critical minerals and supply chains [1][3][11]. Group 1: Rare Earths and Critical Minerals - Australia is the fourth largest country in terms of rare earth and critical mineral deposits, making it a key player in the U.S. strategy [2]. - The U.S. exports rare earths to China, highlighting the need for a focus on refining capabilities, which Australia possesses through its largest refiner outside of China [3][4]. - Recent reports indicate that China's rare earth exports fell in September, and for the first time in seven years, China did not import soybeans from the U.S. in the previous month [5]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Supply Chains - There is potential for a short-term deal between the U.S. and China, which may involve concessions from the U.S. to resume soybean exports in exchange for a delay in China's rare earth controls [6][7]. - The long-term challenge for the U.S. lies in a broad range of supply chains, as China continues to build its control mechanisms beyond rare earths [8][11]. - The U.S. has significant mineral reserves and can collaborate with allies like Australia and Japan to enhance its supply chain resilience [9][10]. Group 3: China's Long-Term Strategy - China has a long-term strategy to build up its production capacity, particularly in advanced technology, which could exert more pressure on the U.S. regarding geopolitical issues like Taiwan [14][15][16]. - The timeline for China's self-sufficiency and production capabilities is uncertain, but it is a critical factor for the U.S. to consider in its strategic planning [13][15].