1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. The steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation. Affected by the export license management policy, the prices of finished products still face some short - term pressure, and the policy impact is expected to be gradually digested later. The willingness for winter storage is weak, and it is difficult to form a concentrated replenishment market. The macro - level is still in the policy observation period, and attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to mainly operate within an oscillatory range. The support at the lower level is relatively solid in the short term. After the rebound of the futures price, the basis has shrunk [5]. - The market sentiment of the black commodity chain has clearly warmed up. The future trends of ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon are mainly led by the black commodity sector, and attention should be paid to the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese - silicon and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Also, the impact of "dual - carbon" policies on the supply of ferrous alloys needs attention [8][9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest region [12]. - The futures price of polysilicon is expected to be unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [15]. - The glass market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to weak demand and limited capacity contraction [18]. - The soda ash market's rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [20]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3136 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.255%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 60684 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.597429 million lots, an increase of 17388 lots. The aggregated rebar price in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: This week, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. The overall terminal demand is still weak, and the steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3285 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.121%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 104293 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.229562 million lots, an increase of 31165 lots. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3260 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of hot - rolled coils has significantly declined, the apparent demand has weakened slightly, the inventory has continued to fall, but the inventory pressure is still relatively prominent. The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 779.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.13% (+1.00). The position changed by - 317 lots to 553,700 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 920,100 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 791 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.78 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.23% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period decreased month - on - month. The daily average pig iron production continued to decline. The port inventory continued to increase, while the steel mills' imported ore inventory dropped to the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. The iron ore price is expected to mainly operate within an oscillatory range [5]. Ferrous Alloys (Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese - Silicon - **Market Quotes**: On December 24, the main manganese - silicon contract (SM603) maintained an oscillation, closing up 0.17% at 5832 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5910 yuan/ton on the futures basis, with a premium of 78 yuan/ton over the futures price [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of manganese - silicon is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been reflected in the price. Future trends are led by the black commodity sector, and attention should be paid to cost - push from manganese ore and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies [9]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) closed up 0.14% at 5656 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 44 yuan/ton over the futures price [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Due to increasing production losses, some enterprises have shut down or switched production, leading to a supply decline and a certain rebound in the futures price. Future trends are led by the black commodity sector, and attention should be paid to supply contraction due to losses and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) was 8860 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.91% (+80). The weighted contract position changed by - 2859 lots to 398,154 lots. The spot price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, both with no change. The basis of the main contract was 340 yuan/ton for 553 and - 10 yuan/ton for 421 [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon futures price rebounded in the short term. The weekly production decreased slightly, and the demand from polysilicon weakened. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [12]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2605) was 58300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.56% (- 925). The weighted contract position changed by - 12830 lots to 210,746 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were stable, with a basis of - 5950 yuan/ton for the main contract. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has introduced position limits and added delivery warehouses [13][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon production in December is expected to continue to decline, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure is difficult to relieve before the Spring Festival. The futures price is expected to be unstable, and attention should be paid to spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1048 yuan/ton, up 1.95% (+20). The large - plate price in North China was 1020 yuan, with no change; the price in Central China was 1060 yuan, down 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million cases, up 0.57%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 28192 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 31578 lots [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand recovery is still weak, and the market is in a supply - demand loosening pattern. The market is expected to continue a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1184 yuan/ton, up 0.77% (+9). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1137 yuan, with no change. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 0.57%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 13051 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 14971 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream demand is weak, the factory inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weakening. The market rebound is expected to be limited, and short positions can be considered [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is "range - bound" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The black sector, including coking coal and coke, is expected to experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. The coking coal market sentiment has improved marginally, but overall demand is average due to general steel mill profitability and no signs of winter storage in the downstream. The supply side is pressured by high daily Mongolian coal imports, but the increasing year - end maintenance of domestic coal mines may ease the supply pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1132.0, up 0.58% from the day - session opening. The main coke contract J2605 closed at 1746.0, up 0.29% from the day - session opening. In the night session, Jm2605 closed at 1114.0, down 1.59% from the day - session close, and J2605 closed at 1722.0, down 1.37% from the day - session close [1] 3.2 Important Information - In mid - December, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was 1.845 million tons, a 1.3% decrease from the previous period. The steel inventory was 16.01 million tons, an 8.6% increase from the previous ten - day period and a 2.6% increase from the same period last month [1] - Beijing has further optimized and adjusted the housing purchase restriction policy, including relaxing the conditions for non - Beijing household families to purchase houses, reducing the social security or individual income tax payment years, allowing multi - child families to buy an additional house within the Fifth Ring Road, unifying commercial loan interest rates for first - and second - home purchases, and reducing the minimum down - payment ratio for second - home provident fund loans to 25% [1] - Three coal mines in Linfen Xiangning will be shut down for year - end maintenance soon. The total production capacity is 10.2 million tons, mainly producing low - sulfur lean coal. The shutdown period is about 9 - 10 days, affecting about 300,000 tons of raw coal production [1] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.3%, a 1.4% decrease from the previous period. The daily output of clean coal was 266,000 tons, a decrease of 700,000 tons from the previous period. The clean coal inventory was 3.29 million tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from the previous period [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The double - coking market showed strong performance during the day session yesterday but declined due to increased short - selling positions at night. The coking coal market sentiment has improved marginally, but steel mill profitability is general, and there are no signs of winter storage in the downstream, resulting in average overall demand. On the supply side, the daily import of Mongolian coal remains high, putting continuous pressure on the market. However, the increasing year - end maintenance of domestic coal mines may ease the supply pressure. In the short term, it is still regarded as range - bound [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The main coking coal contract is constantly testing the upper pressure level of 1150. Given the weak fundamentals, it is expected to be difficult to break through in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Most domestic futures contracts rose on December 24, 2025, with significant gains in platinum, palladium, silver, and lithium carbonate, while some contracts like container shipping index (European line) and polysilicon declined [6]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper has production increases but weak downstream demand; lithium carbonate has strong downstream demand but potential risks of high - level decline; crude oil is in a supply - surplus situation [9][11][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 110.31 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.15 million tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. SMM expects a 6.57 - million - ton increase in December. Copper foil is in high - demand, but downstream demand is weak due to year - end factors [9]. - **Silver**: It rose by more than 8% on December 24 [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened high and closed low, rising nearly 6% on December 24. The capacity utilization rate in the week was 83.52%, and the output in November was 93,886 tons, with a predicted increase in December. Downstream demand from energy - storage batteries supports the price, but there is a risk of high - level decline [10][11]. - **Nickel**: It rose by more than 4% on December 24 [6]. - **Gold**: The gold contract 2602 had a capital outflow of 4.224 billion yuan [7]. - **Tin**: The tin contract 2602 had a capital outflow of 386 million yuan [7]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Both platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit on December 24 [6]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will maintain the overall oil production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntary - cut producers will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The demand peak has ended, and the overall oil inventory has increased. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks have made progress, but the Venezuela situation has raised concerns. The market is in a supply - surplus situation, and it is recommended to wait and see [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production in December is expected to be 2.158 billion tons, a decrease of 700,000 tons from the previous month (3.1%) and 3.44 billion tons from the same period last year (13.8%). The开工 rate is at a low level, and the inventory is also low. The Venezuelan situation may affect production, and the price is expected to fluctuate [15]. Chemicals - **PP**: As of December 19, the downstream PP开工 rate was 53.80%, and on December 24, the enterprise开工 rate dropped to about 82%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawstring decreased to about 27%. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. The upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16][17]. - **Plastic**: On December 24, the plastic开工 rate was about 86.5%. As of December 19, the PE downstream开工 rate was 42.45%. There are new production capacities, and the downstream demand is weak. The upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18]. - **PVC**: The PVC开工 rate decreased to 78.36%, and the downstream开工 rate decreased by 3.5 percentage points. The export increased slightly, but the Indian market demand is limited. The inventory is still high, and the upward space is limited [19][20]. Others - **Coking Coal**: The spot price decreased slightly. The supply is relatively loose, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory increased. After a rebound, the enthusiasm has slightly subsided, and the winter - storage progress needs attention [21]. - **Urea**: The futures price rose on December 24, and the spot price increased. The daily output is 190,000 tons, and the supply pressure is still there. The downstream demand has some resilience, and there is a multi - empty game [23]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures all rose on December 24, with increases of 0.55%, 0.11%, 1.56%, and 1.87% respectively [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures were flat, the 5 - year futures decreased by 0.1%, and the 10 - year and 30 - year futures increased by 0.02% [7]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) and Polysilicon**: They both decreased by more than 1% on December 24 [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: It decreased by nearly 1% on December 24 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current market has low supply, rising demand, strong raw materials, and inventory de - stocking, which provides support. The market has digested the off - season demand and steel export license news. It is expected to trade on the winter storage expectation in the future. In the short term, it is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and slightly upward trend. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start time of winter storage demand [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The open interest of the main rebar contract increased by 17,388 lots on Tuesday. The trading volume slightly decreased compared with the previous trading day. It fluctuated within the day, with the lowest at 3,111 yuan/ton, the highest at 3,144 yuan/ton, and closed at 3,136 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.06%. The trading volume was 837,866 lots [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3,320 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 184 yuan/ton compared with the spot price, which provided some support for the futures price [1]. Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week of December 18, rebar production increased by 29,000 tons week - on - week to 1.8168 million tons, and decreased by 370,500 tons year - on - year. The production was at a near - 4 - year low. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.47%, down 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and 1.16% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, unchanged from last week. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 26,500 tons to 2.2655 million tons, down 28,600 tons year - on - year [2]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was weak, with the average daily trading volume of building materials nationwide maintaining at 90,000 - 100,000 tons, at a near - 5 - year low. As of the week of December 18, the apparent consumption increased by 55,500 tons week - on - week to 2.0864 million tons, and decreased by 300,400 tons year - on - year, at a near - 4 - year low. There were regional differences in demand. Construction in the north stagnated due to cold weather, while in the south, existing projects rushed to complete, and demand had good resilience. The increase in apparent demand was higher than that in production. There was a possibility of winter storage driving demand later [2]. - Inventory side: Inventory continued to decline, and the decline rate increased. As of the week of December 18, the total inventory decreased by 269,600 tons week - on - week to 4.5254 million tons, with an 8 - week consecutive decline, but still 495,200 tons higher year - on - year. Social inventory was 3.13 million tons, down 257,000 tons week - on - week, and the de - stocking accelerated. Steel mill inventory was 1.3954 million tons, slightly down 12,600 tons. The de - stocking of social inventory showed the current demand resilience. The overall inventory pressure was still controllable [3][4]. Macroeconomic aspect The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aimed to stabilize the real estate market, control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to local conditions, and encourage the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - economic outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality" [4]. Cost aspect Iron ore was strong, and coking coal and coke futures stabilized and rose, which continued to increase cost support [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low supply, rising apparent demand, continuous inventory de - stocking, loose policy expectations, large discount on the futures market providing bottom support, strong iron ore, and significant rebound of coking coal and coke to increase cost support [6]. - Bearish factors: Seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter storage willingness of traders, and weak real estate data [6]. Short - term View Summary The market is expected to continue to operate in a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start time of winter storage demand [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong performance in the domestic futures market for urea, with the main contract rising by 1.52% to 1739.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Group 2 - The urea market is influenced by rumors regarding new export quotas, which could lead to a rapid decline in prices if proven false [2] - Production from gas-based enterprises is decreasing slightly due to ongoing maintenance, impacting daily output [2] - Demand remains resilient as winter storage continues, with factories primarily producing high-nitrogen compound fertilizers, providing some support for urea despite a lack of upward driving force [2] Group 3 - Inventory levels are decreasing but remain high compared to the same period over the past five years, with factory inventory at 117.97 thousand tons (down 5.45 thousand tons), port inventory at 13.8 thousand tons (up 1.5 thousand tons), and inventory in Guangxi and Guangdong at 14.6 thousand tons (unchanged) [2] Group 4 - The market focus is on the upcoming printing standards and changes in China's export policies, with rumors of new export quotas significantly affecting market sentiment [2] - Until new favorable factors are confirmed, the market is expected to maintain a strong and fluctuating trend, with attention on the results of printing standards and export expectations that may create short-term trading opportunities [2] - It is also important to monitor changes in urea supply levels, the atmosphere of spot transactions, overall commodity trends, and this week's urea inventory data [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the finished steel prices continued to fluctuate. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within the bottom range. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to export license management but are expected to gradually digest the policy impact. The willingness for winter storage is low this year, and there may not be large - scale restocking. Attention should be paid to the possible marginal impact of the "dual - carbon" policy on the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the supply of overseas shipments has decreased, the demand for molten iron has declined, and the port inventory has increased while the steel mill inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the overall macro sentiment has improved. The future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black sector, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to fluctuate following the market, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to decline, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. - For glass, the demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations [20]. - For soda ash, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited. Short positions can be considered [22]. 3. Summary by Catalog Steel - **Market Information** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3128 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 60,684 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract decreased by 11,933 lots to 1.580041 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.122%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 104,293 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract increased by 9846 lots to 1.198397 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Strategy View** - Rebar's supply and demand both increased this week, and inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. Hot - rolled coil production dropped significantly, apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory continued to fall. The export license policy aims to promote the high - quality development of the steel industry. Overall, the terminal demand is weak, the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure is prominent, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to the policy but are expected to gradually digest it. Winter storage has started in some areas, but the willingness is low [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information** - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 778.50 yuan/ton, down 0.38% (- 3.00). The position increased by 2081 lots to 554,000 lots. The weighted position was 928,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.23% [4]. - **Strategy View** - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased. The shipments from Australia and Brazil declined, while those from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. In terms of demand, the daily molten iron output continued to decline, and the steel mill profitability remained stable. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory reached a five - year low. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information** - The main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed at 5822 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 88 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed at 5648 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 52 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy View** - The macro sentiment has improved. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is not ideal, but most factors are already priced in. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand is basically balanced, and the supply has decreased due to production losses. The future market contradictions lie in the black sector's direction, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8780 yuan/ton, up 2.15% (+ 185). The weighted position decreased by 15,701 lots to 401,013 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 420 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy View** - The price is expected to fluctuate following the market. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the demand from polysilicon weakened. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 59,225 yuan/ton, up 0.65% (+ 380). The weighted position decreased by 10,996 lots to 223,576 lots. The spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type re - feed material was 52.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 6875 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the daily opening positions from December 25 [14][16]. - **Strategy View** - The supply is expected to decline, but the decrease may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high before the Spring Festival. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information** - The main contract of glass closed at 1028 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 0.29% (- 3). The North China large - plate price was 1020 yuan, down 10; the Central China price was 1080 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million boxes, up 331,000 boxes (+ 0.57%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20,833 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 21,478 short positions [19]. - **Strategy View** - The demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations due to insufficient terminal demand and increasing inventory pressure [20]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information** - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1175 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 0.51% (+ 6). The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1137 yuan, up 18. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 5000 tons (+ 0.57%), with the heavy - soda inventory down 18,800 tons and the light - soda inventory up 23,800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 9114 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 10,651 short positions [21]. - **Strategy View** - The downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited due to cost reduction and low profitability. Short positions can be considered [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, and winter storage still needs some time. The 05 contract of rebar and hot - rolled coil has not broken out of the recent trading range. For both rebar and hot - rolled coil, it is recommended to hold long positions for medium - term trading [2]. - For iron ore, with the arrival of the consumption off - season, iron ore demand is likely to decline seasonally. The high global shipments and rising port inventories put pressure on futures prices. However, long positions can still be held for medium - term trading [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar production increased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, and the production of five major steel products declined. Overall inventory continued to fall. Rebar's apparent demand rebounded slightly, while the overall apparent demand of the five major products decreased. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly [2]. - **Cost**: The sharp rebound in coking coal and coke prices in recent days has increased the cost support for the futures market [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract briefly fell below the trading range and then rebounded quickly, remaining within the recent trading range without a downward breakthrough [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for medium - term trading [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of five major steel products decreased. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, iron ore demand is likely to decline seasonally. The reduction in steel mill production suppresses raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories suppresses futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract has not broken out of the wide - range trading at a relatively high level [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for medium - term trading [4]. 3.3 Industry News - In November 2025, global crude steel production was 140.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. From January to November 2025, global crude steel production was 1.6622 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. China's steel production in November was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9% [7]. - In mid - December, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 470,000 tons or 5.9%. The inventory decline continued to widen [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 164.3615 million tons, an increase of 3.4349 million tons from last Monday. Port inventory accumulation accelerated [7]. - From December 15th to 21st, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 12.247 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 527,000 tons, showing a slight rebound [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of building materials continues to move downward, with the price hitting a new low. In a pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak support for the price, and it will operate in an oscillatory consolidation manner [3] - The lithium carbonate futures price shows an interval oscillation pattern, with the main contract running between RMB 109,000 and RMB 116,500 per ton. The significant increase in the market is mainly affected by capital sentiment. The interval oscillation intensifies, and it's necessary to be vigilant about capital and sentiment fluctuations, and pay attention to the marginal changes in supply and demand [2][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Building Materials - Logic: Most short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region stopped production for maintenance from mid - to late January during the Spring Festival, and are expected to resume production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total production of construction steel of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. Among 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui Province, 1 mill started to shut down on January 5th, and most of the remaining mills will shut down around mid - January, with a few mills expected to shut down after January 20th, with a daily impact on production of about 16,200 tons [2] - Market performance: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [3] - Future focus: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3] Lithium Carbonate - Logic: The lithium carbonate futures price shows an interval oscillation, and the significant increase in the market is mainly affected by capital sentiment. The spot price is rising, the market activity is decreasing, and the annual long - term contract negotiation between upstream and downstream enterprises is still in progress [2] - Supply: The raw material price rises, strengthening cost support. Last week, the total weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate increased by 0.21% week - on - week, and the weekly output increased by 0.21% week - on - week. The lithium spodumene process became the core increment of production, and the industry's production capacity release rhythm advanced steadily [3] - Demand: In the short term, the demand slightly decreased, but the long - term resilience remained unchanged. Last week, the production of ternary and lithium - iron batteries decreased week - on - week, and the inventory continued to decline. The production of power cells decreased slightly week - on - week but increased significantly year - on - year. The sales of new energy vehicles showed short - term fluctuations [3] - Inventory: Last week, the weekly inventory of SMM samples decreased slightly by 0.9% week - on - week, continuing the destocking state, and the destocking slope slowed down. The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% week - on - week. There was phased inventory accumulation in other links. The social inventory showed a state of inventory accumulation, with a month - on - month decrease of 54.71%. The core pattern of tight overall industry inventory has not changed [3] - Macro policy: The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits, providing support for the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate [4] - Market sentiment: The collective price increase of battery manufacturers (such as Degjia Energy's 15% increase) drives the sentiment to warm up, but it is necessary to pay attention to the disturbances of overseas resource/restart news and domestic lithium mine production capacity dynamics. In addition, news such as the adjustment of trading limits for lithium carbonate futures contracts by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the publicity of the mining project of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine also have a phased impact on the market sentiment [4] - Future focus: The implementation of macro policies, the progress of production capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand, the destocking slope of sample inventory, and capital and sentiment [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties are classified into different trends such as trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头 [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, futures varieties are classified into 偏空, 震荡, and 偏多 trends [6]. - The overall A - share market showed an upward trend with increased trading volume, but the 12 - month economic data may still be weak, and the overseas data has some uncertainties. The stock index continued to rebound, and attention should be paid to its sustainability [8][9]. - The short - and medium - term bonds may fluctuate moderately upward, but the odds are more important than the direction. Without interest rate cuts, the sentiment in the market may decline [10]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a bearish view on rallies in the medium and long term. The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate upward in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. The silicon alloys should be considered bearish on rallies in the medium term [11][13][15]. - For soda ash, the strategy is to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [16]. - The price of Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate downward after the macro - positive factors fade. The price of Shanghai lead is expected to maintain a low - inventory level, and the previous short positions are recommended to continue to be held. The price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely in the long - term, with a short - term weakening demand and possible short - term correction [18][19]. - For industrial silicon, there is a possibility of partial valuation repair; for polysilicon, the spot price is expected to remain strong [21]. - For cotton, short - term long positions need to be cautious. For sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. For eggs, the contracts after the Spring Festival are under pressure, and the far - month contracts have support. For apples, the price will fluctuate. For corn, it is advisable to go short on the 03 contract and control the position or choose the 3 - 7 reverse spread. For red dates, the market will fluctuate. For live pigs, the spot price is expected to fluctuate downward, and it is advisable to go short on the near - month contracts [23][26][28][30][31][32][33]. - For crude oil, it needs to be vigilant against the price increase caused by the further escalation of the Venezuelan situation in the short term. For fuel oil, the price will follow the oil price. For plastics, it is advisable to consider a weakening and fluctuating trend. For rubber, the short - term strategy of shorting the ru - nr spread should stop profit and wait and see. For synthetic rubber, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term. For methanol, the near - month contracts may have a slight rebound, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after the inventory is smoothly reduced. For caustic soda, avoid long positions in the near - month contracts and hold long positions in the main contract dynamically. For asphalt, the price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. For the polyester industry chain, it is advisable to go long lightly at low prices. For liquefied petroleum gas, the price will fluctuate. For pulp, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term. For logs, the price will fluctuate. For urea, it is advisable to maintain a fluctuating view [34][36][37][38][39][41][42][43][45][46][47]. Summary by Directory Futures Trend Based on Fundamental Analysis - Trend空头: Ethylene glycol, lithium carbonate, manganese silicon, silicon iron, live pigs, eggs, plastic [2]. - 震荡偏空: Liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, polycrystalline silicon [2]. - 震荡: Short - fiber, bottle - piece, p - xylene, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Stock Index Futures, ten - year bond, five - year bond, thirty - year bond, CSI 300 Stock Index Futures, CSI 1000 Index Futures, CSI 500 Stock Index Futures, two - year bond, cotton, zinc, synthetic rubber, rubber, log, pulp, caustic soda, offset printing paper, corn, red dates, urea, apple, rebar, iron ore, hot - rolled coil, glass, soda ash [2]. - 震荡偏多: None provided in the given content. - 趋势多头: None provided in the given content. Futures Trend Based on Quantitative Indicators - 偏空: Coke, PTA, Zhengzhou cotton, glass, manganese silicon, PVC, Shanghai silver [6]. - 震荡: Rebar, plastic, hot - rolled coil, palm oil, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai copper, corn starch, soybean No. 2, soybean No. 1, Shanghai lead, rubber, polypropylene, Shanghai tin, asphalt, methanol, corn, Shanghai gold, coking coal [6]. - 偏多: Rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, iron ore, eggs, sugar, soybean oil [6]. Macro News - The central bank launched a one - time credit repair policy for small - amount overdue personal information. - Vanke's 2 billion yuan bond extension plan was rejected again. - The State Council held a meeting on the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" outline. - Precious metals prices soared, and Wall Street was optimistic about the continued rise of gold prices. - China's December LPR remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. - The Central Economic Work Conference deployed multiple key - area reform tasks. - BYD confirmed the salary increase for R & D staff. - The Ukrainian delegation completed negotiations with the US and returned to Ukraine. - Trump will appoint a new Fed chairman in early January next year. - The Trump administration increased the cash subsidy for illegal immigrants' voluntary departure. - The EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for six months. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange took measures to cool down the silver futures market [8]. Macro - Financial Market Stock Index Futures - The A - share market rose with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69% to 3917.36, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.23%. The trading volume was 1.88 trillion yuan, a net increase of 130 billion yuan from the previous day. The 12 - month economic data may be weak, and the overseas data has uncertainties. The stock index continued to rebound, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the liquidity repair and the structure. If it is realized, the index may strengthen, and attention should be paid to IH [8][9]. Treasury Bond Futures - The funds were moderately loose, and the short - and medium - term bonds may fluctuate moderately upward, but the odds are more important than the direction. Without interest rate cuts, the market sentiment may decline. The 10 - year - and - below bonds are mainly supported by the decline of the funds' central level, and the ultra - long - term bonds are relatively weak. The curve is continuously steep. It is advisable to observe the MLF renewal operation and bond - buying logic first [10]. Black Market Steel and Ore - Policy: The Central Economic Work Conference met market expectations but had no new policies. The supply - side should pay attention to the deployment of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology at the end of December. - Fundamentals: The demand for building materials was weak, and there was an expectation of further decline in the off - season. The demand for coils was good, and the apparent demand was acceptable. The steel mills' profits were at a low level, and the iron - water output was expected to continue to decline. The inventory of five major steel products decreased month - on - month but remained high compared with last year. - Valuation: The raw - material futures prices were fluctuating weakly, and the cost was expected to continue to decrease. - Trend: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a bearish view on rallies in the medium and long term [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke - The price may fluctuate upward in the short term, but it is necessary to pay attention to the disturbances from coal - mine production, safety inspections, and the downstream winter - storage progress and iron - water output changes. In the medium term, the domestic mine's production rate is restricted by policies. In the short term, the coal supply has a contraction expectation, and the potential negative feedback from the weakening steel demand restricts the price increase. The inventory of upstream enterprises has increased, and the downstream replenishment is slow. The price may have a phased rebound, but the space is limited [13][14]. Ferroalloys - The hedging pressure of silicon alloys increases with the rising price. For manganese silicon, the cost is expected to decrease by about 25 yuan/ton. In the short term, pay attention to the possibility of the resumption of silicon - iron plants and the new - capacity launch of manganese silicon. In the medium term, both silicon alloys should be considered bearish on rallies [15]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: Some production - reduction enterprises have resumed production, but the supply may be affected by cost and new - capacity launch. It is advisable to wait and see. - Glass: There is an expectation of production reduction, but the impact on the market is gradually weakening. It is advisable to try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Shanghai Zinc - As of December 22, the domestic zinc inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate downward after the macro - positive factors fade. It is advisable to hold short positions [18]. Shanghai Lead - As of December 22, the lead inventory decreased. It is expected to maintain a low - inventory level. It is advisable to continue to hold short positions [18][19]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term demand is weakening. It may have a short - term correction after the market sentiment returns to rationality, but it will rise in the long - term and fluctuate widely [19][20]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: It is difficult to see production reduction in the short term, but there is a possibility of partial valuation repair. It may gradually shift to the game of polysilicon production - reduction expectations. - Polysilicon: The new delivery warehouses may put pressure on the near - month contracts in the short term. The spot price is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to the manufacturers' trading willingness [21]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, and the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The short - term long positions need to be cautious [23][24][25]. Sugar - The domestic and international sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. The new - sugar listing pressure will suppress the price. The Zhengzhou sugar price is undervalued. It is advisable to wait and see [26][27]. Eggs - The spot price has not risen as expected recently. The contracts after the Spring Festival are under pressure, and the far - month contracts have support. It is advisable to wait and see [28][29]. Apples - The apple delivery is slightly less year - on - year, the sales in the distribution area are slow, and the price of high - quality goods is firm. The price will fluctuate [30][31]. Corn - It is advisable to go short on the 03 contract and control the position or choose the 3 - 7 reverse spread. The supply - and - demand mismatch is being alleviated, and the far - month contracts are under supply pressure [31]. Red Dates - The market is in the digestion stage of new - product arrival, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream sales and procurement [32]. Live Pigs - The supply - exceeds - demand situation remains unchanged. The spot price is expected to fluctuate downward. It is advisable to go short on the near - month contracts and control the position [33]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - The situation in Venezuela has led to a rapid rebound in oil prices. In the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the price increase caused by the further escalation of the situation. In the medium - term, the oil price is under pressure due to the new supply wave and weakening demand [34][35]. Fuel Oil - The price is affected by geopolitics and the macro - environment. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price will follow the oil price [36]. Plastics - The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. The price may fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to consider a weakening and fluctuating trend [37]. Rubber - The short - term strategy of shorting the ru - nr spread should stop profit and wait and see. It is advisable to go long on dips with a stop - loss [37][38]. Synthetic Rubber - It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and be cautious about chasing up or down. The price is affected by raw - material prices, downstream procurement, and funds [39]. Methanol - The supply and demand situation has improved slightly, and the inventory has started to decrease. The near - month contracts may have a slight rebound, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after the inventory is smoothly reduced [39][40]. Caustic Soda - The near - month contracts should avoid long positions, and the long positions in the main contract should be held dynamically. The price is affected by the spot market and the overall commodity market [41]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The raw - material supply is affected by geopolitics [42]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is advisable to go long lightly at low prices. The PX price is expected to be strong, the PTA price follows the cost, the ethylene glycol price is relatively weak, and the short - fiber price has limited follow - up power [43]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price will fluctuate. The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the overall supply is abundant. The demand in winter is strong, but the chemical - industry pressure is high [43][44]. Pulp - The fundamentals are improving, and the price is pushed up by funds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term and consider option - selling strategies for high - cost positions [45]. Logs - The fundamentals are in a weak balance, and the price will fluctuate. The import volume has increased, and the external market price has a downward trend [46]. Urea - It is advisable to maintain a fluctuating view. The spot market is affected by coal prices and environmental protection policies. The futures market is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the demand recovery after the end of environmental protection restrictions [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate. Terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within the bottom range. Winter storage has started in some areas, but the willingness to store this year is low, and large - scale restocking may not occur. The macro - level is in a policy window period, and attention should be paid to whether the "dual - carbon" policy will be strengthened again and have a marginal impact on the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the recent market environment is relatively mild. After the decline of hot metal to the current level, the marginal pressure may ease. The Spring Festival in 2026 is late, and the restocking time is postponed. The current low inventory of steel mills provides some room for restocking demand. It is expected that the iron ore price will mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. - Regarding manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market will be led by the direction of the black sector. For manganese silicon, the cost push from manganese ore is a key factor, and for ferrosilicon, supply contraction due to losses is important. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, its own driving force is not strong. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - For polysilicon, the gap between expectations and reality and the differentiation between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain continue. The futures price trend is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [16]. - For glass, the demand recovery is still weak, and it is expected to continue to oscillate narrowly in the short term [19]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is limited. Short positions can be considered [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3126 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.224%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 60684 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 23108 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3277 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.244%). The registered warehouse receipts increased by 889 tons, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 2627 lots [1]. - **Strategy**: Rebar's supply and demand both increased this week, and inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased significantly, apparent demand declined slightly, and inventory continued to fall. Overall, terminal demand is weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 781.50 yuan/ton, up 0.19% (+1.50). The open interest increased by 17048 lots to 55.20 million lots. The weighted open interest was 93.42 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 62.04 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.36% [4]. - **Strategy**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased in the latest period. The daily average hot - metal output continued to decline, and the environmental protection restrictions in Hebei increased. The port inventory continued to rise, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory reached the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. It is expected that the iron ore price will mainly operate within the oscillation range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On December 22, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) closed up 0.55% at 5840 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 70 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 0.07% at 5644 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 56 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. For ferrosilicon, supply has decreased due to losses. The future market will be affected by the black sector, manganese ore cost for manganese silicon, and supply contraction for ferrosilicon. Attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) closed at 8595 yuan/ton, down 1.09% (-95). The weighted open interest increased by 9649 lots to 416714 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China were stable, with basis values of 605 yuan/ton and 255 yuan/ton respectively [12]. - **Strategy**: The industrial silicon price oscillated downward. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the demand support from polysilicon weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The main polysilicon contract (PS2605) closed at 58845 yuan/ton, down 2.32% (-1400). The weighted open interest decreased by 13275 lots to 234572 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were stable, with a basis of - 6445 yuan/ton [14]. - **Strategy**: The polysilicon output is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure is difficult to relieve before the Spring Festival. The futures price trend is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract closed at 1031 yuan/ton on Monday, down 0.96% (-10). The prices in North China and Central China were stable. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 331000 boxes (+0.57%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 18027 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 29200 short positions [18]. - **Strategy**: The demand recovery is weak, and it is expected to continue to oscillate narrowly in the short term [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash main contract closed at 1169 yuan/ton on Monday, down 0.60% (-7). The price in Shahe decreased by 11 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 0.50 million tons (+0.57%), with the heavy - soda inventory decreasing and the light - soda inventory increasing. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 10809 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 10322 short positions [20]. - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is limited. Short positions can be considered [21].