Core Viewpoint - In August, South Korea's petrochemical product exports fell by 18.7% year-on-year to $3.38 billion, while semiconductor and automobile exports reached record highs, indicating a mixed performance in the export sector amid external pressures [1] Group 1: Export Performance - South Korea's total exports in August grew by only 1.3% year-on-year to $58.4 billion, while imports decreased by 4.0% to $51.9 billion, resulting in a narrowed trade surplus of $6.51 billion [1] - Semiconductor exports increased by 27.1% year-on-year to $15.1 billion, and automobile exports reached $5.5 billion, marking a historical high [1] - The growth in hybrid, electric, and used car exports did not positively impact the petrochemical product export growth [1] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum products, which are at 50%, have led to a decline in related exports [1] - Additional 15% tariffs on Korean goods implemented by the U.S. starting August 7 have further hampered export performance [1] Group 3: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for South Korea in August slightly increased to 48.3, indicating ongoing contraction in output and new orders [1] - Companies reported a decline in production and sales due to weak domestic economic conditions compounded by tariff pressures [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous sector is expected to oscillate and gradually recover. The expectation of interest rate cuts is warming up, demand expectations are favorable, and market sentiment is improving. China's manufacturing data shows a slight improvement, while the US manufacturing growth is slowing down, and inflation is moderately rising, further boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts [12]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different trends. For example, copper is expected to strengthen with an upward - moving price center; zinc is expected to fluctuate and rebound with limited downward pressure; aluminum is in a high - level oscillation; tin is in a high - level oscillation with a supply - demand weak pattern; lead is in an interval fluctuation; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be bullish in the short - term [3][4][5][6][8][9]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part I: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector is oscillating and recovering. China's manufacturing data shows a slight improvement, and the US manufacturing growth is slowing down while inflation is moderately rising, boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts. The market sentiment is turning positive [12]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal** - **Copper**: The supply - demand situation is turning favorable, with demand rising faster than supply. The price center is expected to move up. Suggested to buy on dips, with a support range of 78000 - 79000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton [3][14]. - **Zinc**: Supply is increasing while demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate and rebound with limited downward pressure. Suggested to be bullish in the short - term, with a support range of 21600 - 21800 and a pressure range of 22800 - 23200 [4][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: It is recommended to wait and see. Aluminum is in a high - level oscillation, alumina is weakly oscillating, and cast aluminum alloy is in a consolidation phase [5][14]. - **Tin**: It is in a high - level oscillation with a supply - demand weak pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 250000 - 255000 and a pressure range of 270000 - 290000 [6][14]. - **Lead**: It is in an interval fluctuation. It is suggested to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 16600 - 16800 and a pressure range of 17200 - 17400 [8][14]. - **Nickel**: It is expected to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 115000 - 116000 and a pressure range of 123000 - 125000 [9][16]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is recommended to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 12700 - 12800 and a pressure range of 13000 - 13200 [9][16]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Quotes**: Copper closed at 80110 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase; zinc closed at 22285 yuan/ton with a 0.18% decrease; aluminum closed at 20710 yuan/ton with a 0.05% decrease; alumina closed at 2992 yuan/ton with a 0.99% decrease; tin closed at 273120 yuan/ton with a 0.31% decrease; lead closed at 16865 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase; nickel closed at 121790 yuan/ton with a 0.60% decrease; stainless steel closed at 12915 yuan/ton with a 0.35% decrease; cast aluminum alloy closed at 20285 yuan/ton with a 0.07% decrease [17]. Part III: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal futures contracts have different net long - short positions and changes. For example, the main contract of Shanghai Gold (AU2510) has a strong long - position, while the main contract of Shanghai Copper (CU2510) has a relatively strong short - position [19]. Part IV: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper is 80540 yuan/ton with a 0.39% increase; the spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc is 22250 yuan/ton with a 0.36% increase; the average spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous aluminum is 20720 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase; the average national price of Antaike alumina is 3204 yuan/ton with a 0.25% decrease [20]. Part V: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides various charts related to the industry chain of different non - ferrous metals, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price relationships, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [24][27][30]. Part VI: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report presents charts related to the arbitrage of different non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices and the spread between futures contracts [57][59][61]. Part VII: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides charts related to the options of different non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, and aluminum, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, and trading volume - position changes [74][76][79].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The US ISM Manufacturing Index for August is reported at 48.7, indicating contraction for six consecutive months, with new orders index rising to 51.4, marking its first expansion since early this year [2][3] - Markit Manufacturing PMI shows a stronger performance, suggesting robust expansion in the manufacturing sector, driven by increased sales and a recovery in domestic demand [3] - The cautious attitude towards production expansion and low hiring intentions in the manufacturing sector may exert pressure on the US job market [2] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Non-US central banks' gold holdings have surpassed US Treasury holdings for the first time in 30 years, with gold prices reaching historical highs [4][5] - The World Gold Council anticipates an increase in global central bank gold reserves over the next 12 months, with Morgan Stanley setting a year-end gold price target of $3,800 per ounce [4] - The shift in central banks' asset allocation towards gold reflects concerns over potential financial conflicts and a diversification away from US dollar assets [5] Group 3: Robotics Industry Developments - Yushu Technology plans to submit its IPO application between October and December 2025, with a focus on transparency in operations as it prepares for public listing [6] - The company has expanded its product line from quadruped robots to humanoid robots, aiming to capture new market opportunities [6] - Despite being a leading player in the robotics sector, Yushu Technology faces challenges in commercializing its products, with a significant portion of sales coming from research procurement rather than industrial applications [7] Group 4: State-Owned Enterprises Collaboration - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) plans to transfer 5.41 billion shares to China Mobile, enhancing strategic cooperation and optimizing shareholding structure [8][9] - The share transfer is seen as a common practice in state-owned enterprise reform, with potential for improved collaboration in exploration and sales through technology integration [8] - The government encourages state-owned enterprises to adjust resource allocation and enhance competitiveness, indicating a shift towards more flexible capital management [9] Group 5: New Tea Beverage Market Performance - Six new tea beverage companies reported a total revenue exceeding 30 billion yuan and a net profit of over 5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in most companies [10][11] - The competitive landscape is shifting as brands focus on cost control and market expansion, particularly in lower-tier markets, while some high-end brands struggle with profitability [10] - The overall market is expected to face intensified competition as external subsidies decline and consumer preferences shift towards value [11] Group 6: Stock Market Trends - The number of new A-share accounts opened in August increased by approximately 165% year-on-year, reflecting growing investor interest amid a rising market [14][15] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 7.97% in August, marking its fourth consecutive month of gains, driven by increased trading volume [14] - The trend of "deposit migration" suggests that investors are reallocating funds from savings to the stock market due to lower interest rates and better market performance [15]

Report Summary 1. Market Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.31 with a 0.20 bp increase, DR007 at 1.44 with a 0.78 bp decrease, GC001 at 1.00 with a 2.50 bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.46 with a 2.00 bp increase. SHBOR 3M remained unchanged at 1.55, and LPR 5 - year stayed at 3.50 [3]. - **Bond Yields**: 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.34, 1.58, and 1.77 respectively, with the 1 - year and 5 - year bonds down 0.50 bp and the 10 - year up 0.05 bp. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.23, up 1.00 bp [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4490, down 0.74%; the SSE 50 at 2993, up 0.39%; the CSI 500 at 6962, down 2.09%; and the CSI 1000 at 7314, down 2.50%. The trading volume of the two A - share markets reached 28750 billion, 1250 billion more than the previous day [4]. 2. Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 2557 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 4058 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1501 billion yuan. This week, 22731 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [3]. 3. Market Analysis - **Market Sentiment**: Yesterday, the macro news was calm, but small - and medium - cap stocks fell significantly due to profit - taking and increased risk - aversion. Large - cap stocks were relatively stable. The market liquidity is abundant, with A - share daily trading volume above 2.5 trillion [4]. - **Economic Indicators**: China's manufacturing PMI in August rose slightly to 49.4%, indicating economic resilience. Overseas, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased [4]. 4. Investment Strategy - Short - term long positions can be shifted towards IF or IH to reduce portfolio volatility and risk [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - industry news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to break through new highs, with a trend strength of 2 [2][7][9]. - **Silver**: Likely to reach the previous high, with a trend strength of 2 [2][7][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market sentiment has improved, leading to price increases, trend strength is 1 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 0 [2][14][15]. - **Lead**: Decreasing inventory supports prices, trend strength is 0 [2][17]. - **Tin**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 1 [2][20][23]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile market, trend strength is 0 [2][24][26]. - **Alumina**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 0 [2][24][26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Attention should be paid to policy implementation progress, trend strength is 0 [24][26]. - **Nickel**: Narrow - range fluctuations based on fundamentals, with sentiment influenced by news, trend strength is 0 [2][28][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, trend strength is 0 [2][28][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The basis is slightly repaired, and the weak - side oscillation continues, trend strength is 0 [2][34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is more volatile, and attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts, trend strength is 0 [2][37][39]. - **Polysilicon**: Short - term fluctuations are significantly amplified, trend strength is 0 [2][37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, leading to wide - range fluctuations, trend strength is 1 [2][40]. - **Rebar**: Excessive inventory accumulation leads to price oscillations and corrections, trend strength is 0 [2][42][44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Excessive inventory accumulation leads to price oscillations and corrections, trend strength is 0 [2][42][44]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 0 [2][46][48]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 0 [2][46][48]. - **Coke**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 1 [2][49]. - **Coking Coal**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 1 [2][49]. - **Log**: Prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly, trend strength is 0 [2][51][54]. - **Para - Xylene**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and a long - position spread strategy is recommended [2][55]. - **PTA**: A long - position spread strategy for monthly differences, and partial profit - taking for the long - PTA and short - MEG strategy [2][55]. - **MEG**: Partial profit - taking for the long - PTA and short - MEG strategy [2][55]. Others - **LPG**: Macroeconomic risks are increasing, and crude oil costs are rising [5]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are still supported, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [5]. - **PVC**: The downward trend persists, with pressure on prices [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices declined at night, and it may continue to be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [5]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility has increased, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has risen significantly [5]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Expected to trade in a wide range [5]. - **Short - Fiber**: Expected to consolidate in a range, and a long - PF and short - PR strategy is recommended [5]. - **Bottle Chip**: Expected to consolidate in a range [5]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Trading at a low level with limited upward momentum [5]. - **Pure Benzene**: Expected to trade with a weak - side oscillation [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Influenced by macro factors, prices are expected to rebound in a volatile market [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to narrow [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: The significant decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans has a positive impact on prices [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Prices are expected to rebound and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the market sentiment of the soybean market [5]. - **Corn**: Prices are expected to trade in a range [5]. - **Sugar**: Conab has lowered the production forecast for Brazil [5]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new crops [5]. - **Egg**: There is strong near - end game - playing [5]. - **Live Pig**: Market expectations have weakened [5]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [5].

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets experienced a "risk off" attitude, with the Dow closing at -0.55%, S&P 500 at -0.69%, and Nasdaq at -0.60% [1] - Goldman Sachs was the worst performer on the Dow, down -1.9%, while Kraft Heinz fell -7%, the largest drop in the S&P 500 [2] Commodity Performance - Gold prices reached a new all-time high, increasing by +2.35% to just below $3600 per ounce [2] - Bitcoin also saw growth, rising +1.88% to $111,313 [2] Company Earnings - Zscaler reported fiscal Q4 results, with earnings of 89 cents per share, beating estimates by 9 cents, and quarterly sales of $719 million, surpassing expectations of $706 million [3] - Zscaler's billings were notably higher than expected, and guidance for the next quarter and full fiscal year was raised, leading to a +5% increase in shares during late trading [3] Economic Indicators - S&P Manufacturing PMI for August was slightly below expectations at +53.0, down -30 basis points from the previous month, while ISM Manufacturing improved to +48.7%, 70 basis points above the prior month [4] - Construction spending for July showed a slight improvement, moving from -0.4% in June to -0.1%, although it remains below expectations [5] Upcoming Reports - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for July is expected to remain stable at 7.4 million job openings, consistent with the current labor market trends [6] - Factory Orders for July are anticipated to improve to -1.3% from -4.8% in June, with additional reports on the Beige Book and August Auto Sales expected [7] - Salesforce is expected to report quarterly earnings with +8.2% growth in earnings per share and +8.7% in revenues, having only missed earnings once in the past five years [8]

Core Insights - The ISM reported that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August, primarily due to a decline in output, indicating ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [1] - However, the new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of the year, and the prices index reached its lowest level since February, suggesting a reduction in price volatility caused by tariffs [1] Manufacturing Index Summary - The ISM manufacturing index for August was 48.7, below the expected 49 and previous value of 48, indicating continued contraction as it remains below the neutral level of 50 [1] - The new orders index rose to 51.4, significantly above the expected 48 and previous 47.1, marking the largest monthly increase since early last year [3] - The output index fell to 47.8, dropping 3.6 points and indicating a return to contraction for the first time in three months [3] - The employment index slightly increased to 43.8 but remains one of the weakest levels since the pandemic, below the expected 45 and previous 43.4 [3] - The prices paid index was 63.7, lower than the expected 65 and previous 64.8, indicating a decrease in price pressures [3] Industry Performance - The ISM survey indicated that 10 industries experienced contraction, particularly in paper products, wood, plastics and rubber, and transportation equipment manufacturing, while 7 industries showed expansion [5] - The overall demand remains weak due to tariff uncertainties, with 69% of manufacturing GDP in contraction, although the proportion of industries in severe contraction has slightly decreased [6] Economic Context - Consumer spending in July grew at the fastest pace in four months, driven mainly by expenditures on big-ticket items like automobiles [7] - The Markit manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 53, slightly below the expected 53.3, indicating a robust performance in the manufacturing sector [8] - The chief economist at S&P Global noted that the manufacturing sector showed strong expansion over the summer, with increased hiring to meet new orders and backlogs, suggesting potential economic uplift in Q3 [9]

Group 1 - The upcoming week is significant for the stock market due to the release of major employment reports, including Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and private-sector payrolls from ADP [1][2] - Weekly Jobless Claims have shown consistency, currently around 230K, with longer-term claims remaining above 1.94 million for 12 consecutive weeks [3] - The Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to show modest job growth of +75K new jobs, which is similar to the previous month's report [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in response to lower job numbers, indicating that even a surprise increase in job growth would not alter their plans [6] - The S&P Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing reports for August are anticipated, with S&P expected to remain at 53.3 and ISM expected to rise to 48.5% [7] - Pre-market futures are declining, with major indexes falling below levels from five workdays ago, and bond yields have surged, indicating market volatility [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with a continuous recovery during the peak season. The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, and the domestic manufacturing PMI showed a slight rebound in August, indicating a good macro atmosphere. Various metal prices are expected to strengthen, particularly for rigid supply varieties like copper and aluminum [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The number of listed companies in the industry is 141, with a total market value of 40,523.71 billion and a circulating market value of 38,091.88 billion [2]. - Domestic industrial metal prices showed mixed performance, with the LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc prices changing by 1.1%, -0.1%, -0.2%, and 0.3% respectively, while SHFE prices changed by -0.9%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and -0.6% [5][25]. Economic Factors - The manufacturing PMI in China for August is reported at 49.4, slightly up from 49.3, with production and new orders indices at 50.8 and 49.5 respectively [8][35]. - The U.S. PPI showed a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in July, while the CPI remained stable at 2.7% [8][45]. - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index has declined, with CPI growth steady at 2% [8][43]. - Global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in July, indicating a slight deterioration in business conditions [8][49]. Basic Metals - The recovery in the peak season continues, particularly for electrolytic aluminum, with signs of increasing downstream demand [9][51]. - The electrolytic aluminum industry saw a capacity increase of 10,000 tons, with operational capacity reaching 44,035,000 tons [10][52]. - The average operating rate for aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.7%, indicating a recovery trend as the peak season approaches [10][53]. Aluminum and Alumina - The alumina price is experiencing accelerated declines, with a current price of 3,209 yuan/ton, down 1.26% [12][97]. - Domestic alumina inventory has risen to 4,316,000 tons, surpassing historical levels [12][99]. Copper - The processing fee for copper has declined, with domestic electrolytic copper production reported at 238,000 tons, an increase of 1.61% year-on-year [14][116]. - Domestic copper inventory has decreased to 202,200 tons, down 0.88% from the previous week [14][116]. Zinc - The processing fee for refined zinc has increased, with domestic production reported at 138,400 tons, up 4.05% year-on-year [15][116]. - Domestic zinc inventory has continued to rise, reaching 144,500 tons [15][116].

| | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-09-02 面，持仓下降价格回升，空头氛围减弱，关注22200支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或逢低轻仓做多。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22325 | 150 10-11月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 10 | -10 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2833 | 19 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 217039 | -10790 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | -7797 | 5781 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 38955 | 998 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 85980 | 8142 LME库存(日,吨) | 55875 | -625 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22150 | 50 长江有 ...