Report Overview - Report Date: January 7, 2026 [1] - Report Title: "Rebar: Market sentiment disturbance, wide - range shock in the futures market; Hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment disturbance, wide - range shock in the futures market" [2][3] - Analysts: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The rebar and hot - rolled coil markets are affected by market sentiment, resulting in wide - range shocks in the futures market [2][3] Market Data Summary Futures Market - RB2605 closing price: 3,111 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.06%; trading volume: 841,618 lots, open interest: 1,562,948 lots, an increase of 14,597 lots [3] - HC2605 closing price: 3,263 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; trading volume: 439,684 lots, open interest: 1,274,085 lots, a decrease of 20,441 lots [3] Spot Market - Rebar: Shanghai price dropped 10 yuan/ton to 3,280 yuan/ton; Hangzhou price dropped 10 yuan/ton to 3,310 yuan/ton; Beijing price dropped 10 yuan/ton to 3,130 yuan/ton; Guangzhou price remained unchanged at 3,490 yuan/ton [3] - Hot - rolled coil: Shanghai price rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,260 yuan/ton; Hangzhou price rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,300 yuan/ton; Tianjin price dropped 10 yuan/ton to 3,160 yuan/ton; Guangzhou price remained unchanged at 3,250 yuan/ton; Tangshan billet price remained unchanged at 2,930 yuan/ton [3] Basis and Spread - RB2605 basis: 169 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton; HC2605 basis: - 3 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3] - RB2601 - RB2605 spread: - 29 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; HC2601 - HC2605 spread: 23 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; HC2601 - RB2601 spread: 158 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; HC2605 - RB2605 spread: 152 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton; Spot coil - rebar spread: - 118 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [3] Macro and Industry News - December 31st Steel Union weekly data: Rebar production increased by 3.83 million tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 10.97 million tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 18.36 million tons; Rebar inventory decreased by 12.22 million tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.26 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 25.84 million tons; Rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.24 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 3.73 million tons, and the total apparent demand increased by 7.41 million tons [4] - In mid - December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 18.45 billion tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.845 billion tons, a 1.3% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; 16.81 billion tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.681 billion tons, a 1.9% decrease in daily output; 18.03 billion tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.803 billion tons, a 1.4% decrease in daily output. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 16.01 billion tons, a 8.6% increase compared to the previous ten - day period [5] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [5] - In mid - November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.71 billion tons, a 2.5% decrease compared to the previous period, showing a continuous downward trend [5] - In October 2025, China imported 503,000 tons of steel, a 8.2% decrease compared to the previous month; the average price was 1,593.0 US dollars/ton, a 1.9% decrease compared to the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative import of steel was 5.041 billion tons, a 11.9% decrease compared to the same period last year [5] Trend Intensity - Rebar trend intensity: 0; Hot - rolled coil trend intensity: 0 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The inland price has bottomed out, and the port is trading on the expectation of significant inventory reduction. However, the high MTO operation rate is a prerequisite for significant inventory reduction. Currently, the MTO profit is average, which restricts the upside of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 ships per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Pay attention to subsequent developments. In the short term, shipments may remain normal. Also, monitor the changes in oil prices. The limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors. If oil prices drive up other products, it may lift the price ceiling of methanol [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. The major producers and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while the social inventory remains flat. The raw material and finished - product inventories of downstream enterprises are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe and the United States are stable, and the Southeast Asian market is also stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding products is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating, with LD weakening. The number of maintenance projects in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and the US price quotes. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, so monitor the commissioning of new plants [5]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The inventory of major producers and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral, and the markets in Europe and the United States are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the price of propylene is fluctuating, and the operation rate of powder plants is stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance projects, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. The downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of mid - upstream enterprises is continuously accumulating. In summer, the northwest plants are seasonally under maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, monitor the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have declined slightly. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC plant maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Monitor whether subsequent export orders can support the price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and the operation rate [7]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, while the prices of various regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed. For example, the price of Jiangsu spot increased from 2150 to 2233, and the price of Northwest discounted to the futures price increased from 2400 to 2450 [1]. - **Daily Changes**: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the Northwest discounted to the futures price increased by 30, and the domestic basis increased by 12 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 745, and the price of North China LL increased from 6300 to 6400. The price of the main futures contract increased from 6453 to 6579 [5]. - **Daily Changes**: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of North China LL increased by 100, and the price of the main futures contract increased by 130 [5]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of Shandong propylene increased from 5700 to 5770, and the price of East China PP decreased from 6095 to 6180 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of Shandong propylene increased by 40, the price of East China PP decreased by 30, and the price of the main futures contract increased by 93 [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2300, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China increased from 4580 to 4660 [7]. - **Daily Changes**: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China increased by 130 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For PE, short - term sentiment boost and cost - side disturbances drive the price to stop falling and rebound, but limited improvement in supply - demand fundamentals restricts the rebound space. The supply pressure increases due to new device production, limited planned maintenance, and expected increase in low - price imported goods, while the demand is weak as it's the off - season, and the downstream开工 rate continues to decline [1][2]. - For PP, short - term market sentiment turning warm, supply - side shrinkage expectations, and cost - side support drive the price to stop falling and rebound. However, the supply - demand contradiction is large, with high inventory levels. The short - term rebound depends on the increase in supply - side maintenance scale, but the price rebound space may be limited due to insufficient demand improvement [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 6449 yuan/ton (-23), PP main contract at 6330 yuan/ton (-18). LL North China spot was 6400 yuan/ton (+100), LL East China spot at 6480 yuan/ton (+30), PP East China spot at 6190 yuan/ton (+30). LL North China basis was - 49 yuan/ton (+123), LL East China basis at 31 yuan/ton (+103), PP East China basis at - 140 yuan/ton (+48) [1]. - Upstream supply: PE开工 rate was 83.2% (+0.6%), PP开工 rate was 76.7% (-0.1%) [1]. - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 64.5 yuan/ton (+78.3), PP oil - based production profit was - 415.5 yuan/ton (+78.3), PDH - made PP production profit was - 828.8 yuan/ton (-35.7) [1]. - Import and export: LL import profit was 99.3 yuan/ton (-2.5), PP import profit was - 351.2 yuan/ton (+7.4), PP export profit was - 22.4 US dollars/ton (-0.9) [1]. - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film开工 rate was 39.0% (-4.9%), PE downstream packaging film开工 rate was 48.4% (+0.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工 rate was 43.1% (-0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film开工 rate was 63.2% (+0.0%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Short - term sentiment and cost factors drive the price to stop falling, but the supply - demand situation is unfavorable. New device production and expected increase in imports increase supply, while downstream demand remains weak as it's the off - season, and the开工 rate is expected to decline further [2]. - **PP**: Market sentiment, supply - side expectations, and cost support drive the price to rebound. However, the supply - demand contradiction is large, with high inventory and limited downstream demand improvement [3]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: LLDPE and PP are under the "wait - and - see" strategy. The short - term may continue the volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of upstream device maintenance [4]. - Inter - period: Not provided - Inter - variety: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 when it is high [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - After the holiday, the spot price of zinc rose sharply. Although the social inventory increased slightly, the supply remained tight. Traders were reluctant to sell, and downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines. The domestic smelter's comprehensive smelting loss widened, and the supply pressure decreased significantly. The fundamental data is still bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. The market is optimistic about future consumption, with unchanged expectations of interest rate cuts and unreflected re - inflation [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Data - LME zinc spot premium is -$36.25/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,970 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 105 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,870 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 5 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,890 yuan/ton, up 680 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 35 yuan/ton [1] Futures Data - On 2026 - 01 - 05, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,435 yuan/ton and closed at 23,820 yuan/ton, up 525 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 141,147 lots, and the open interest was 89,942 lots. The highest price was 23,930 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,400 yuan/ton [2] Inventory Data - As of 2026 - 01 - 05, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,800 tons, up 8,700 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 105,850 tons, down 475 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Views of the Reports 1. **Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report** - Presents detailed data on the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time quantiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios, including IF, IH, IC, and IM [1] 2. **Interest Rate Futures Basis and Spread Daily Report** - Provides data on the basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL interest rate futures, along with their changes and percentiles since listing [2] 3. **Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report** - Future market may focus on the impact of US economic data on Fed policy and geopolitical situation in South America. Precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility in January. Suggestions include long - position gold allocation on dips, light long - position silver trading with option hedging, and long - position platinum trading due to its strong external market performance [3] 4. **Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report** - Shows the increase in settlement price indices and Shanghai export container freight rates. Futures prices of container shipping indices have also risen, and there are changes in fundamental data such as supply, port indicators, and overseas economic indicators [7][8] Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. **Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report** - **Spread Data**: Includes IF, IH, IC, and IM futures' spot - futures spreads, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios, with specific values, changes, and quantiles [1] 2. **Interest Rate Futures Basis and Spread Daily Report** - **Basis Data**: TS, TF, T, and TL futures' basis values, changes, and percentiles since listing [2] - **Cross - Period Spread Data**: Cross - period spreads of different contracts and their changes and percentiles [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread Data**: Cross - variety spreads among different interest rate futures and their changes and percentiles [2] 3. **Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report** - **Futures Closing Price**: Domestic and foreign precious metals futures closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes [3] - **Spot Price**: Spot prices of various precious metals, price changes, and percentage changes [3] - **Basis**: Basis values of different precious metals, price changes, and 1 - year quantiles [3] - **Ratio**: Ratios of different precious metals, price changes, and percentage changes [3] - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate, along with their changes and percentage changes [3] - **Inventory and Position**: Inventory and position data of precious metals, changes, and percentage changes [3] 4. **Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report** - **Settlement Price Index**: SCFIS for European and US West routes, with price changes and percentage changes [7] - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Rate**: SCFI comprehensive index, European, US West, and US East routes, with price changes and percentage changes [7] - **Futures Price and Basis**: Futures prices of different container shipping index contracts, price changes, percentage changes, and basis value changes of the main contract [7] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply, Shanghai port indicators (quasi - arrival rate, berthing situation), monthly export amount, overseas economic indicators (euro - zone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, US manufacturing PMI, OECD leading indicators), with their changes and percentage changes [7] - **Spot Quotation**: Spot freight rates of Shanghai - Europe routes for different shipping companies, price changes, and percentage changes [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: There is a risk of a downward trend in Malaysian palm oil if it breaks below 4000 ringgit. In China, the futures of Dalian palm oil are expected to be weakly viewed in the short - term due to high port inventories and the potential weakness of Malaysian palm oil. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil may have a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term. In China, the fundamentals of soybean oil are positive as inventories are decreasing, and imports are expected to decline in January [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Attention should be paid to whether COFCO can start pressing on time. After starting, it may relieve the shortage in South China, but there is a risk of further price decline in the futures market [1]. Cotton - ICE US cotton is expected to maintain a volatile trend. In the Chinese market, cotton prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term due to factors such as faster sales progress, cost solidification, and expected reduction in planting area in 2026 [3]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar is expected to trade in a range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound in the short - term. In the Chinese market, sugar prices are expected to be weak and volatile at a low level due to the expected supply surplus and cautious market sentiment [4]. Jujube - The spot market of jujube has weak trading, but the new - season warehouse receipt cost provides some support to the futures market. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival stocking and inventory reduction progress [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term due to the co - existence of farmers' reluctance to sell and policy - supported supply. However, policy releases and pre - Spring Festival selling pressure may suppress prices [8]. Pork - Spot pork prices are back in a volatile pattern. The futures market is expected to be range - bound in the short - term. Although there is some support from secondary fattening, the overall supply in January is relatively loose [10]. Meal - US soybeans have a technical rebound, but the global supply - demand pattern and South American production expectations still suppress the market. In China, soybean meal is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile in the short - term [13]. Eggs - The supply pressure of eggs may ease as the number of laying hens is expected to decrease. Although the market sentiment is positive due to approaching Spring Festival stocking, considering the relatively loose supply, the main contract is expected to be volatile at a low level [15]. 3. Summary by Catalog Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On January 5, 2026, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil remained unchanged at 8410 yuan/ton, and the futures price of Y2605 decreased by 0.08% to 7856 yuan/ton. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 1.16% to 8490 yuan/ton, and the futures price of P2605 decreased by 1.12% to 8488 yuan/ton. The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil increased by 0.20% to 10050 yuan/ton, and the futures price of OI605 decreased by 0.47% to 9044 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread (2605) increased by 12.47% to - 632 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread (2605) decreased by 3.02% to 1188 yuan/ton [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.48% to 14655 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2609 increased by 0.58% to 14845 yuan/ton. The price of ICE US cotton increased by 0.98% to 64.64 cents per pound [3]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.32% to 15442 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.38% to 15615 yuan/ton [3]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of sugar 2605 increased by 0.11% to 5257 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2609 increased by 0.06% to 5269 yuan/ton. The price of ICE raw sugar increased by 0.82% to 14.72 cents per pound [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price decreased by 0.37% to 5330 yuan/ton, and the Kunming spot price decreased by 0.19% to 5200 yuan/ton [4]. Jujube - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of jujube 2601 increased by 1.82% to 9250 yuan/ton, and the price of the main contract jujube 2605 decreased by 0.11% to 8955 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spot Market**: The Cangzhou super - grade spot price decreased by 0.63% to 9460 yuan/ton, and the first - grade spot price remained unchanged at 8200 yuan/ton [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On January 5, 2026, the price of corn 2603 decreased by 0.09% to 2224 yuan/ton, and the Jinzhou Port FAS price decreased by 0.86% to 2310 yuan/ton [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2603 decreased by 0.24% to 2509 yuan/ton, and the Changchun spot price remained unchanged at 2570 yuan/ton [8]. Pork - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of the main contract decreased by 25.86% to 1190 yuan/ton, and the price of pork 2605 decreased by 0.45% to 12110 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Market**: The Henan spot price decreased by 4.10% to 12850 yuan/ton, and the Shandong spot price decreased by 1.15% to 12900 yuan/ton [10]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3100 yuan/ton, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.18% to 2754 yuan/ton [13]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.41% to 2440 yuan/ton, and the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.17% to 2361 yuan/ton [13]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the price of the egg 03 contract increased by 1.39% to 2992 yuan per 500KG, and the price of the egg 04 contract increased by 1.15% to 3214 yuan per 500KG [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.23% to 3.02 yuan per catty, and the egg - chick price remained unchanged at 2.80 yuan per chick [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market is continuously affected by geopolitical factors, with oil prices remaining volatile. The overall chemical sector is expected to continue its oscillatory pattern. - Different products in the energy and chemical industry show varying trends. For example, asphalt prices have surged due to political unrest in Venezuela, while low - sulfur fuel oil prices have declined. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and oil prices remain volatile. - **Main Logic**: Global land - based crude oil inventories have declined in the past 4 weeks, but floating storage inventories have risen. US refined product inventories are increasing. OPEC+ has a stable production outlook for Q1, and geopolitical situations in Iran and Venezuela are the key factors affecting supply expectations. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility is expected due to fluctuating geopolitical premiums. [8] Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Political unrest in Venezuela has driven up asphalt futures prices. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1. Political instability in Venezuela has led to expectations of raw material shortages, driving up asphalt futures prices. However, asphalt supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is accumulating. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued. [8][9] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Support for fuel oil futures prices is gradually accumulating. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ suspending production increases, energy crisis expectations in Iraq, and tight heavy - oil supply are positive factors. However, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the substitution of fuel oil by other energy sources are long - term negative factors. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are weak. [9] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating downward. - **Main Logic**: Prices follow the trend of crude oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel oil substitution. - **Outlook**: It is affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but with low valuation, it will fluctuate with crude oil. [11] PX - **Viewpoint**: There is a repeated game between weak terminal demand and strong expectations, and prices are consolidating at a high level. - **Main Logic**: Cost support is insufficient, but the restart of PTA devices in January has increased the direct demand for PX. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to consolidate in a high - level range in the short term, and the profit margin can be maintained. [12] PTA - **Viewpoint**: TA processing fees are at the upper end of the range, and the room for continuous increase is limited. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are weak, cost support is insufficient, and the supply of PTA is increasing while downstream polyester load may decline. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate with costs, and processing fees are under pressure. [13][14] Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The accumulation of inventory pressure is still being realized, with differences in expectations, and trading is mainly based on reality. - **Main Logic**: Spot prices are slightly supported by downstream exports and strong US - dollar prices, but the fundamentals are still weak. There is room for improvement in the far - month supply - demand situation. - **Outlook**: Inventory and demand restrict the upside, and the external market provides short - term support. [15][16] Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Driven by exports and a warm commodity atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. - **Main Logic**: Cost support is weak, but new export deals and a positive commodity atmosphere are beneficial. However, it is about to enter a period of inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: There is an obvious upside limit, and exports can stimulate short - term rebounds. [17][18] Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The implementation of polyester production cuts is gradually taking effect, and the driving force for ethylene glycol is average. - **Main Logic**: Domestic supply reduction is slow, and although overseas device maintenance may reduce imports, the inventory accumulation pattern cannot be reversed. - **Outlook**: Prices will remain in a range in the short term, and the upside is limited due to long - term inventory pressure. [19][21] Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Weak terminal demand restricts price elasticity. - **Main Logic**: Cost support is strong, but terminal demand is weak, and inventory has increased during the holiday. - **Outlook**: Prices are oscillating. [22] Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: There are more device overhauls in January, and the basis is firm. - **Main Logic**: Prices are adjusting downward during the day and rebounding at night. The supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and overhauls in January may improve the situation. - **Outlook**: Prices will follow raw materials, and processing fees have stronger support below. [24] Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Frequent overseas disturbances, methanol is oscillating strongly. - **Main Logic**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, but overseas disturbances such as the situation in Venezuela and Iran may affect imports. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation with an upward bias. [27][28] Urea - **Viewpoint**: Post - holiday transactions are active, and urea is stable with an upward bias. - **Main Logic**: Supply is stable, and demand from compound fertilizer enterprises, commercial storage, and industrial sectors has increased. - **Outlook**: Supply is relatively abundant, and demand may be boosted in the short term, but the upside is limited. [28][29] LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance support is limited, and LLDPE should be viewed as oscillating. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating, the fundamentals of LLDPE are slightly improved, but demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. [31] PP - **Viewpoint**: Slight increase in maintenance, PP is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating, downstream demand is in the off - season, and short - term maintenance has increased. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. [32] PL - **Viewpoint**: Supported by PDH maintenance expectations, PL is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: PDH maintenance expectations are positive, but downstream demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. [33] PVC - **Viewpoint**: Overseas device shutdowns have led to a strong rebound in PVC. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors may boost sentiment, and overseas device shutdowns and domestic production cost changes are positive for supply. - **Outlook**: Supported by supply improvement expectations, PVC will run strongly. [34] Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and costs are declining. Caustic soda should be viewed with caution and a downward bias. - **Main Logic**: Supply is in excess, demand is weak, and costs are decreasing. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and costs are declining. The downward space is limited. [35] 3.2品种数据监测 3.2.1能化⽇度指标监测 - **跨期价差**: Different varieties show different changes in inter - period spreads. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.34 with a change of 0.02, while that of Dubai is - 0.11 with a change of - 0.19. [37] - **基差和仓单**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties also vary. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 63 with a change of 9, and the warehouse receipts are 24920. [38] - **跨品种价差**: Spreads between different varieties have different trends. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 423 with a change of - 43. [40] 3.2.2化⼯基差及价差监测 No specific data summaries are provided in the text for this part.

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Report Date: January 6, 2026 [2] Key Points 1. Price Data and Changes - **Rotterdam Fuel Oil**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by 1.27, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 7.62, and other related spreads also had corresponding changes [3]. - **Singapore Fuel Oil**: The price of Singapore 380cst M1 and 180cst M1, VLSFO M1, etc., had different changes during the same period. For example, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by 2.10 from December 26 to January 5 [3][4]. - **Singapore Fuel Oil Spot**: The FOB 380cst price decreased by 8.13, and the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 7.06 from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026 [4]. - **Domestic FU**: The prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 decreased by 35, 21, and 30 respectively from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026 [4]. - **Domestic LU**: The price of LU 01 increased by 253, while LU 05 and LU 09 decreased by 26 and 29 respectively from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026 [5]. 2. Core Views - Before the festival, the cracking of 380 fuel oil fluctuated, and it weakened slightly after the festival. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from the low point but remained weak year - on - year. The high - sulfur cracking in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level [5]. - The cracking of Singapore 0.5% fuel oil oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [5]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil had a significant inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had a significant inventory draw - down, ARA residue oil had a small inventory build - up, Fujairah residue oil had an inventory draw - down, and EIA residue oil had a small inventory build - up [11]. - The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, having a short - term positive and long - term negative impact on heavy crude oil. It is necessary to pay attention to the duration of logistics interruption. The arrival premium of Merey crude oil at the end of December remained around - 12 [11]. - The high - sulfur spot market remained loose, and attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium of heavy raw materials recently. The low - sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of L2605 is expected to be volatile, with the daily range estimated to be around 6360 - 6580 yuan/ton [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 6449 yuan/ton; the 1 - month contract decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 6240 yuan/ton, the 5 - month contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 6449 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 6496 yuan/ton [2] - The trading volume of futures increased by 72,633 hands to 397,441 hands, and the open interest increased by 7,498 hands to 508,923 hands [2] - The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 7 to - 209 [2] - Among the top 20 futures positions, the buy volume increased by 19,428 hands to 424,068 hands, the sell volume increased by 8,277 hands to 486,835 hands, and the net buy volume increased by 11,151 hands to - 62,767 hands [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China increased by 53.91 yuan/ton to 6476.52 yuan/ton, and in East China increased by 30.93 yuan/ton to 6534.88 yuan/ton [2] - The basis was 27.52 yuan/ton, and the change value was NAN [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore decreased by 0.6 dollars/barrel to 56.36 dollars/barrel; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan decreased by 6.25 dollars/ton to 530.13 dollars/ton [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia remained at 726 dollars/ton, and in Northeast Asia remained at 746 dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical plant operating rate increased by 0.59 percentage points to 83.23% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film increased by 0.19 percentage points to 48.41%, the operating rate of PE pipes decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 30.17%, and the operating rate of PE agricultural film decreased by 4.91 percentage points to 38.95% [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 16.03%, the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.01 percentage points to 12.77% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options for polyethylene both decreased by 0.73 percentage points, to 14.15% and 14.14% respectively [2] Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, the PE plant operating rate increased by 0.59% to 83.23%, and the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.68% to 41.15%, with the agricultural film operating rate decreasing by 4.91% to 38.95% and the packaging film operating rate increasing by 0.19% to 48.41% [2] - As of January 2, the PE plant inventory was 37.07 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19.17%, and the PE social inventory was 47.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.76% [2] - From December 27 to January 2, the LLDPE oil - based production cost decreased by 0.55% to 6925.43 yuan/ton, the coal - based production cost remained stable at 5732 yuan/ton; the oil - based profit increased by 36.71 yuan/ton to - 630.29 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 143.14 yuan/ton to - 63.57 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "Weak with Oscillation" [1] - The investment rating for the jujube sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "Weak with Oscillation" [4] - The investment rating for the rubber - related sector in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillation", with synthetic rubber being "Oscillating with a Slight Uptrend" [5] Group 2: Core Views - For sugar, the international sugar market faces supply pressure due to increased sugar production in India and the expected high - yield in the new Brazilian season. Although Thailand's new - season sugar production is lower than expected, the overall fundamentals of the domestic and international sugar markets are bearish. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar futures will run weakly after the opening [1] - For jujubes, the sample inventory of jujubes has entered the seasonal destocking period, but the total inventory is still at a historical high. After the supply negatives are gradually digested, the market focuses on demand. The futures price has support at the previous low, but there is insufficient positive news in the medium - to - long - term, and it is expected to oscillate in a low - level range [4] - For rubber, natural rubber has limited fundamental driving factors in the short term. The price may be in a consolidation state after the holiday, and attention should be paid to the impact of synthetic rubber trends. Synthetic rubber is supported by cost, and the sudden situation in Venezuela may boost the BR futures price [5] Group 3: Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, the closing price of SR601 contract was 5,251 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.13%, and the closing price of SR605 contract was 5,266 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.17% [1] - **Important Information**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 5,293 yuan/ton. As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 11.897 million tons, a nearly 25% increase year - on - year. The number of sugar mills in operation increased by 12 to 504. As of January 1, 2026, 195 sugar mills in Maharashtra, India, had produced 492,000 tons of sugar. As of December 29, 2025, Thailand's sugar production decreased by 18.83% year - on - year. Before the holiday, the number of sugar warrants in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged at 5,182 [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the SR605 contract [1] Jujube - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, the closing price of CJ601 contract was 8,965 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.61%, and the closing price of CJ605 contract was 9,230 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.38% [4] - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 210 tons week - on - week to 15,898 tons. The wholesale price of Hebei's top - grade jujubes remained unchanged at 9.52 yuan/kg. The number of arrival vehicles at Guangdong Ruyifang Market increased by 1 to 8. The number of jujube warrants increased by 778 to 2,120 [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the CJ605 contract [4] Rubber - Related - **Market Review**: As of December 31, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 15,605 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.41%, the closing price of NR2603 contract was 12,655 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the closing price of BR2602 contract was 11,520 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.39% [5] - **Important Information**: The price of raw materials in Thailand was not available during the holiday. Some enterprises had short - term maintenance plans during the "New Year's Day" holiday. As of December 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.87% to 524,800 tons, and the social inventory of natural rubber in China increased by 1.7% to 1.201 million tons. The price of butadiene in Shandong and East China was stable, and the market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber were also stable [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Overall, adopt a wait - and - see approach or hold a small number of long - call options for BR [5]