1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The fundamentals of pure benzene continue to improve, with port inventories declining from their peak in the first week and downstream提货 demand being boosted. Although the styrene startup rate remains low, the startup rates of non - styrene pure benzene downstream industries have rebounded, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the improvement in downstream startup rates. Overseas, attention should be paid to the implementation progress of the expected reduction of the US tariff policy on South Korean pure benzene. The domestic pure benzene startup rate remains low. - For styrene, the port inventory is still slightly decreasing at the beginning of the week, and the port basis is slightly strengthening. The recovery rate of styrene startup is still slow, the resumption of production at Bohua is still to be determined, and Zhenhai Liande continues to be shut down. The downstream startup rate has increased, with the EPS startup rate rising above the seasonal level, the PS startup rate declining seasonally, and the ABS startup rate consolidating at a low level. Overall, the weighted downstream startup rate has increased, and the ABS inventory pressure has gradually eased [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main contract basis is - 77 yuan/ton (+105), and the spot - M2 spread is - 175 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main contract basis is 142 yuan/ton (+47 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 178 US dollars/ton (+20 US dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 180 US dollars/ton (+23 US dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 154.0 US dollars/ton (-6.0 US dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is 386 yuan/ton (-78 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3.3 Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Startup Rates - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 29.70 tons (-2.70 tons), and the startup rate is not mentioned in the text [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 93,500 tons (-7,100 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 58,900 tons (-1,000 tons), and the startup rate is 70.9% (-0.1%) [1]. 3.4 Styrene Downstream Startup and Production Profits - EPS: The production profit is 78 yuan/ton (+145 yuan/ton), and the startup rate is 54.05% (+7.34%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 322 yuan/ton (+45 yuan/ton), and the startup rate is 57.40% (-1.50%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 978 yuan/ton (-55 yuan/ton), and the startup rate is 69.80% (+0.00%) [2]. 3.5 Pure Benzene Downstream Startup and Production Profits - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 990 yuan/ton (-45), and the startup rate is 77.17% (+2.95%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 919 yuan/ton (+0), and the startup rate is 89.00% (+3.50%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is 1171 yuan/ton (+262), and the startup rate is 73.26% (+11.95%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 921 yuan/ton (-41), and the startup rate is 65.30% (-2.30%) [1]. 3.6 Strategy - Unilateral: Consider cautiously buying on dips and hedging for EB2602 and BZ2603 [4]. - Basis and inter - period: None [4]. - Cross - variety: None [4].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: Polyester leading stocks' rise drives PX and PTA prices up. Before the Spring Festival, the downside price space is limited, but there is pressure after the festival. Future PX supply - demand is expected to weaken gradually. Consider long - PX short - PTA and long - MX short - PX hedges [8]. - PTA: Polyester leading stocks' rise leads to PTA price rebound. Focus on reducing processing fees. Future supply and demand are both weak, and it turns into a stock - building pattern [9]. - MEG: It is in a range - bound market with limited downside space. Pay attention to basis and 5 - 9 calendar spreads. Supply pressure is still large, but considering basis, calendar spreads, and potential spring maintenance, the downside is restricted [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price Data - **Futures Prices**: PX主力昨日收盘价7232元，涨126元，涨幅1.77%；PTA主力昨日收盘价5144元，涨114元，涨幅2.27%；MEG主力昨日收盘价3674元，跌81元，跌幅2.16%；PF主力昨日收盘价6494元，涨96元，涨幅1.50%；SC主力昨日收盘价437元，跌0.4元，跌幅0.09% [2]. - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR中国昨日价格888美元/吨，较前日涨9美元；PTA华东昨日价格5010元/吨，较前日涨38元；MEG现货昨日价格3595元/吨，较前日跌43元；石脑油MOPJ昨日价格549美元/吨，较前日涨0.5美元；Dated布伦特昨日价格68美元/桶，较前日涨0.69美元 [2]. - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格330.5美元/吨，较前日涨4.42美元；PTA加工费昨日价格309.31元/吨，较前日跌70.31元；短纤加工费昨日价格120.64元/吨，较前日跌21.37元；瓶片加工费昨日价格149.42元/吨，较前日涨47.24元；MOPJ石脑油 - 迪拜原油价差昨日价格 - 4.34美元/吨，与前日持平 [2]. Fundamental Information - **PX**: On January 20, PX prices rose. The estimated price of MOPJ in February is 546 dollars/ton CFR. Three Asian spot transactions in March were all at 887. The estimated PX price on January 20 was 888 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars from January 19. The domestic PX plant operating rate increased to 89.6% (+1.3%), and only Sinochem Quanzhou is under maintenance. Some overseas PX plants plan to restart or are under maintenance, and the overseas import in December is expected to be over 950,000 tons [3][8]. - **PTA**: The PTA plant operating rate is maintained at about 76.9%. The Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton PTA plant is under maintenance. Polyester production reduction plans increase, and the operating rate drops rapidly this week [8][9]. - **MEG**: From January 19 to January 25, the planned arrival quantity at major ports is about 205,000 tons. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is 74.4%, and the coal - based operating rate is 80.2% (+1.6%). Some plants adjust their loads, and some are under maintenance. Polyester filament manufacturers increase maintenance efforts, and the polyester load in February is expected to drop to 82 - 83% [6][10]. - **Polyester**: A 400,000 - ton polyester plant in Shaoxing and a 500,000 - ton polyester plant in Ningbo are under planned maintenance and will restart in early March. A 50,000 - ton polyester plant in Shaoxing restarted on January 20. On January 20, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 102%. The sales - to - production ratio of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester filaments was weak, with an estimated average of 40 - 50% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Range - bound [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously chase long [2][3] - Urea: Cautiously chase long [3] - Natural gas: Bearish rebound [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand relationship, and cost. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and South America have an impact on the prices of energy - related products. Supply - demand imbalances exist in many varieties, with some facing over - supply pressure during the off - season, while others have weak demand. Cost factors, especially the price of crude oil, play a crucial role in the price trends of many products [1][7][11] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Summary**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have decreased, but there is still uncertainty. The market is in an off - season with supply surplus, and inventories are rising. OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the long - term, with short - term rebounds possible [1][11][12] - **Price Information**: WTI主力 at $59.34, Brent主力 at $64.13, and SC主力 at 442.6 yuan/barrel [9] - **Supply**: Iraq's daily oil export in January 2026 is expected to be 3.6 million barrels [12] - **Demand**: The share of Middle East crude supply in India's December 2025 crude imports rose to nearly 54% [12] - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 9, US crude inventory increased by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million barrels [12] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, OPEC+ expansion may push the price into a low - price range. Short - term, watch for rebounds, and for SC, focus on the range of [430 - 445] [13] LPG - **Summary**: It follows the downward trend of the cost - end crude oil price. The supply and demand are relatively stable, with downstream chemical demand showing resilience. The inventory shows positive signals [1][17] - **Price Information**: On January 19, the PG主力 contract closed at 4124 yuan/ton, down 0.48% [16] - **Supply**: As of the week of January 16, the LPG commodity volume was 518,700 tons, up 600 tons [17] - **Demand**: As of the week of January 16, the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates were 73.07% (- 2.54pct), 67.57% (+0.00pct), and 37.99% (+0.32pct) respectively [17] - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 16, the refinery inventory was 156,700 tons, down 1,900 tons, and the port inventory was 2.0278 million tons, down 104,200 tons [17] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the price may continue to decline. Focus on the range of [4000 - 4100] [18] L - **Summary**: The basis weakens, and it follows the cost - end to move weakly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [22] - **Price Information**: L05 closed at 6667 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7 yuan/ton [20][22] - **Supply**: The parking ratio is 14%, and the planned device restart this week may lead to a slight increase in production [22] - **Demand**: Entering the off - season in January, the demand is weakening [22] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [6600 - 6750] [22] PP - **Summary**: The warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the supply is slightly increasing. It follows the cost to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The supply - demand is weak on both sides [26] - **Price Information**: PP05 closed at 6482 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 yuan/ton [24][26] - **Supply**: The parking ratio is 19%, and the PDH profit is low, increasing the expectation of maintenance [26] - **Demand**: Entering the off - season in January, the demand is weakening [26] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [6400 - 6600] [26] PVC - **Summary**: The price of calcium carbide has increased, and the price of liquid caustic soda has decreased, with improved cost support. However, there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand in the long - term, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse [30] - **Price Information**: V05 closed at 4801 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 241 yuan/ton [28][30] - **Supply**: The domestic operating rate has increased to 80% [30] - **Demand**: In the seasonal off - season, both domestic and foreign demand are weak [30] - **Inventory**: Social inventory has reached a new high [30] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [4700 - 4900] [30] PX/PTA - **Summary**: It is in a range - bound state. The processing fee has been repaired, but the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The supply is affected by device maintenance, and the cost - end PX is in a weak balance [32] - **Price Information**: TA05 closed at 5018 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 58 yuan/ton [31][32] - **Supply**: Multiple domestic devices are under maintenance, and overseas devices have some planned maintenance [32] - **Demand**: Downstream polyester and weaving industries have reduced operating rates, and orders are decreasing [32] - **Inventory**: There is a slight accumulation of inventory in January - February, but the pressure is not large [32] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for 05 contract, and focus on the range of [4980 - 5100] [33] Ethylene Glycol - **Summary**: The valuation is relatively low. The domestic supply load has increased, while the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The port inventory is rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January - February [35] - **Price Information**: EG05 closed at 3614 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 101 yuan/ton [34][35] - **Supply**: Multiple domestic devices have changed their operating status, and overseas devices have some planned maintenance [35] - **Demand**: Downstream polyester and weaving industries have reduced operating rates, and orders are decreasing [35] - **Inventory**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February [35] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds, and focus on the range of [3700 - 3770] [36] Methanol - **Summary**: The valuation is not low, and the comprehensive profit is weak. The domestic and overseas device operating rates have decreased, and the demand is slightly weak. The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and there is a game between weak reality and strong expectation [39][40] - **Price Information**: The valuation of methanol is at the 16.0% quantile level in the past six months, and the East China basis is strengthening [39] - **Supply**: Domestic and overseas devices have reduced their operating rates, and the import volume in January is expected to be about 850,000 tons [39][40] - **Demand**: The demand from the olefin industry and traditional downstream industries is weak [39][40] - **Inventory**: The (port) inventory has been significantly reduced [40] - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is expected to ease in January, and the demand is suppressed by the weak olefin market. Pay attention to the range of [2180 - 2240] [41] Urea - **Summary**: The absolute valuation is not low, and the supply is increasing with the resumption of production of previous maintenance devices. The short - term demand is relatively strong, but it will enter the off - season during the festival. The price has a ceiling and a floor under the policies of "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" [43][44] - **Price Information**: The main contract of urea closed at 1801 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 yuan/ton [42][44] - **Supply**: The operating rates of coal - based and gas - based urea devices are rising, and the daily output is at a high level [44] - **Demand**: The winter storage is progressing steadily, and the demand from compound fertilizers and melamine industries is strong, but the export is weakening month - on - month [43][44] - **Inventory**: The social inventory is still at a relatively high level [43] - **Strategy**: The winter storage has limited positive effects, and the supply pressure is increasing. Pay attention to the range of [1760 - 1790] [45] Natural Gas - **Summary**: Affected by cold air, the demand has been boosted in the short - term, leading to a price rebound. However, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under pressure in the long - term [49] - **Price Information**: On January 19, the NG主力 contract closed at $2.702 per million British thermal units, up 0.75% [48] - **Supply**: In December 2025, the natural gas production of industrial enterprises above designated size increased steadily. The number of natural gas rigs in the US decreased [49] - **Demand**: The proportion of natural gas heavy - duty trucks in the terminal sales of heavy - duty trucks was 26.00% from January to November 2025 [49] - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 9, the US natural gas inventory decreased by 71 billion cubic feet [49] - **Strategy**: In the winter, the demand for heating provides support, but the supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the range of [3.361 - 3.991] [49] Asphalt - **Summary**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, and the price has followed the decline of crude oil. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the cracking spread is gradually returning to normal but still has room for compression [54] - **Price Information**: The BU主力 contract closed at 3142 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [52] - **Supply**: The production in December 2025 increased slightly, and the operating rate has changed [53] - **Demand**: The demand has entered the off - season, and the shipment volume has decreased [53] - **Inventory**: The inventory of 70 sample enterprises has increased [53] - **Strategy**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still uncertain. Pay attention to the range of [3100 - 3200] [54] Glass - **Summary**: The terminal real - estate demand is weak, and the cost support has weakened. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the price is expected to continue to decline [58] - **Price Information**: FG05 closed at 1070 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton [56][58] - **Supply**: The daily melting volume has slightly increased, but supply reduction is still needed [58] - **Demand**: The demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and the number of deep - processing orders is low [58] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of [1040 - 1080] [58] Soda Ash - **Summary**: The operating rate of production enterprises has increased, and the factory inventory is gradually decreasing from a high level. The demand from the float glass industry is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [62] - **Price Information**: SA05 closed at 1192 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 42 yuan/ton [60][62] - **Supply**: The second - phase 2.8 million - ton device of Yuanxing has been put into production, and the capacity utilization rate has increased to 87% [62] - **Demand**: The real - estate demand is weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased, resulting in insufficient demand [62] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of [1150 - 1200] [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - Overall, the polyolefin industry is pressured by supply and seasonal demand, but the upside space may be limited due to cost support and profit compression. Attention should be paid to the substantial changes in the demand side. For PE, the HD - LLDPE spread is narrowing, and the marginal supply of the standard product (LLDPE) is expected to increase, while the demand is in the seasonal off - season. For PP, the supply - demand is weak, but the balance has improved significantly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of future maintenance plans [1]. Methanol Industry - Methanol futures are oscillating weakly. The inland supply remains high, and the traditional demand is weak, with short - term pressure. Although the port inventory has decreased slightly, the MTO demand is weak, suppressing the price rebound. The key variables are the reduction rhythm of imported resources and the process of the risk premium fading caused by geopolitical factors [2]. Rubber Industry - Overseas raw material prices for natural rubber continue to decline, weakening the bottom support. The demand has increased slightly in some semi - steel tire foreign trade orders, and the inventory in China continues to accumulate. Considering that Thailand is about to enter the production - reduction period, the decline of raw materials is expected to be limited, and the rubber price is expected to be in the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply - demand of pure benzene has improved marginally, but the port inventory is still high. Styrene is strong due to export and device accidents, and the spread between styrene and pure benzene has widened. Strategies include looking for short - selling opportunities for BZ03 and narrowing the EB - BZ spread at high levels. Styrene may face inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, and its upside space is limited [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda futures are weakly oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand lacks substantial improvement, so the price is expected to be weak. PVC futures are oscillating downwards. The supply is high, the demand is affected by the festival, and the inventory continues to accumulate, so the price is expected to be weak with limited downside space [5]. Urea Industry - Urea futures have declined, and the supply is at a high level. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream agricultural demand and the resumption rhythm of devices [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, and the inventory is at a high level. Glass futures are affected by real - estate data, and the supply - demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to follow the decline of the futures price [7]. Crude Oil Industry - Short - term oil prices are still affected by news, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Brent crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 US dollars per barrel. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [8]. LPG Industry - LPG futures prices have declined. The inventory has decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The overall market is affected by supply and demand [11]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to be high - level oscillating before the Spring Festival and low - level long - term treated in the medium term. PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it is expected to follow the raw materials. MEG is expected to accumulate a large amount of inventory, and the price is under pressure. Short - fiber is weakly oscillating following the raw materials. Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to decline, and it follows the cost [13]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined to varying degrees [1]. - **Spreads**: The L59 spread has decreased, the PP59 spread has increased, and the LP05 spread has decreased [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of华东PP拉丝,华北LLDPE, and other products have declined [1]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate and downstream weighted operating rate have decreased, while the PP device operating rate has increased slightly, and the PP powder operating rate has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories have decreased [1]. Methanol Industry - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined [2]. - **Spreads**: The MA59 spread has increased significantly [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of methanol in various regions have declined [2]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory has increased slightly, while the port and social inventories have decreased [2]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates have decreased slightly, and the downstream MTO and other operating rates have changed to varying degrees [2]. Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of natural rubber products such as云南国营全乳胶 and泰标混合 rubber have declined, and the basis has changed [3]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 spreads have changed [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. has changed, and the operating rates of automobile tires and the production and export of domestic tires have increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in China has continued to accumulate [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil and other products have changed, and the spreads between pure benzene and other products have also changed [4]. - **Benzene and Styrene Prices and Spreads**: The prices of benzene and styrene have increased, and the spreads between them have changed [4]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol and caprolactam have changed [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain have changed [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products have changed to varying degrees [5]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda have changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits have changed [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Positions**: The futures prices of urea have declined, and the positions of the top 20 long and short have changed [6]. - **Raw Material and Spot Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials and urea spot have changed [6]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of urea have changed [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizer have changed [6]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and operating rate of urea have changed [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash products and their spreads have changed [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: The operating rates, production, and inventory of glass and soda ash have changed [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil and their spreads have changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined oil products have changed [8]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures and spot have declined, and the spreads have changed [11]. - **External Prices**: The external prices of LPG have declined slightly [11]. - **Inventory**: The LPG inventory has decreased [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream and downstream operating rates of LPG have changed [11]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products have changed [13]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed [13]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed [13]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain have changed [13].

Oil Market - WTI prices were not available due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, while Brent crude for March closed at $63.94 per barrel, down $0.19, a decrease of 0.30% [2][15] - Domestic crude oil production in China for 2025 is projected to be 21,605 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with processing volume at 73,759 million tons, up 4.1% [2][15] - The market is currently experiencing a seasonal decline in diesel and gasoline demand, with oil prices showing no significant driving force, maintaining a volatile trend [2][15] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil (FU2603) rose by 0.12% to 2,538 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) increased by 0.07% to 3,060 yuan per ton [16] - Supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, with Singapore receiving approximately 290-300 million tons in January, up from 260-270 million tons in December [16] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to significantly impact oil prices, with fluctuations expected to follow oil price movements [16][4] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt (BU2602) increased by 0.29% to 3,142 yuan per ton, with concerns over raw material supply easing slightly [17] - The market is currently facing a "weak demand reality" against a backdrop of "strong cost expectations," particularly as winter weather impacts demand [17] Rubber - The main contract for rubber (RU2605) fell by 90 yuan per ton to 15,745 yuan per ton, with NR and BR contracts also experiencing declines [18] - China's rubber tire exports for 2025 are expected to reach 9.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [18] - Inventory levels for natural rubber in Qingdao increased, indicating a seasonal accumulation trend [18] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5,030 yuan per ton, up 0.24%, while EG2605 fell by 1.08% to 3,755 yuan per ton [19] - PX futures closed at 7,106 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.28%, and the market is expected to see some support due to supply reductions [19] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2,207 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $262 to $266 per ton [21] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is under pressure due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [21] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [22] - Demand is expected to recover slightly in early January, but inventory levels are anticipated to rise as the month progresses [22] PVC - PVC prices have decreased, with the market experiencing a supply-demand imbalance and overall bearish sentiment [23] - The upcoming end of export tax rebates is expected to increase upward pressure on long-term contracts [23] Urea - Urea futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1,772 yuan per ton, down 1.45% [24] - Market sentiment is declining, with production rates and demand showing signs of weakness ahead of the Spring Festival [24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are fluctuating, with the main contract closing at 1,192 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [25] - The industry is facing pressure from supply and demand dynamics, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the market [25] Glass - Glass futures prices fell significantly, with the main contract closing at 1,070 yuan per ton, down 2.9% [26] - The market is experiencing a supply recovery, but demand remains cautious, leading to a bearish outlook [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the cracking of Singapore 380 strengthened, and the monthly spread rebounded significantly. The high - sulfur cracking in Europe rebounded, and the monthly spread also rebounded significantly. The high - sulfur EW oscillated at a high level. The cracking of Singapore 0.5% was at a historical low for the same period, rebounded month - on - month, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, and the basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil had a small inventory build - up, with the inventory at a historical high year - on - year, ARA residue oil had a small inventory draw - down, and Fujairah residue oil had an inventory build - up. This week, the situation in Iran affected the global heavy - oil valuation. In the short term, the driving force of high - sulfur was stronger than that of low - sulfur, the high - sulfur spot tightened, the cracking rebounded, and the short - term downside was limited, while the low - sulfur external market remained weak [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 13 to 19, 2026, for Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1, the price changed from 338.39 to 336.42, a decrease of 4.64; for Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1, it changed from 393.07 to 385.25, a decrease of 4.33; for Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1, it changed from - 11.61 to - 10.40, a change of - 0.31; for Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1, it changed from 634.60 to 636.65, an increase of 2.45; for Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 241.53 to - 251.40, a decrease of 6.78; for LGO - Brent M1, it changed from 21.98 to 23.36, an increase of 0.17; for Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1, it changed from 54.68 to 48.83, a decrease of 0.31 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - During January 13 - 19, 2026, for Singapore 380cst M1, the price changed from 346.25 to 360.61, an increase of 3.77; for Singapore 180cst M1, it changed from 353.19 to 365.42, an increase of 2.15; for Singapore VLSFO M1, it changed from 422.84 to 429.94, an increase of 3.49; for Singapore GO M1, it changed from 81.26 to 83.40, an increase of 1.89; for Singapore 380cst - Brent M1, it changed from - 8.90 to - 6.58, a change of 0.21; for Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1, it changed from - 178.48 to - 187.22, a decrease of 10.50 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From January 13 to 19, 2026, for FOB 380cst, the price changed from 344.30 to 359.26, an increase of 0.92; for FOB VLSFO, it changed from 424.25 to 431.00, an increase of 1.63; the 380 basis changed from - 1.80 to - 1.45, an increase of 0.20; the high - sulfur internal - external price difference changed from 13.4 to 12.6, a decrease of 1.1; the low - sulfur internal - external price difference changed from 15.8 to 15.6, an increase of 0.3 [2] Domestic FU Data - Between January 13 and 19, 2026, for FU 01, the price changed from 2451 to 2478, a change of - 7; for FU 05, it changed from 2469 to 2526, an increase of 6; for FU 09, it changed from 2467 to 2500, an increase of 2; for FU 01 - 05, it changed from - 18 to - 48, a decrease of 13; for FU 05 - 09, it changed from 2 to 26, an increase of 4; for FU 09 - 01, it changed from 16 to 22, an increase of 9 [2] Domestic LU Data - From January 13 to 19, 2026, for LU 01, the price changed from 3112 to 3136, an increase of 48; for LU 05, it changed from 3063 to 3052, an increase of 11; for LU 09, it changed from 3081 to 3073, an increase of 17; for LU 01 - 05, it changed from 49 to 84, an increase of 37; for LU 05 - 09, it changed from - 18 to - 21, a decrease of 6; for LU 09 - 01, it changed from - 31 to - 63, a decrease of 31 [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified - Methanol: Not specified - Styrene: Not specified - Propylene: Not specified - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Indicating short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, poor operability on the current disk, mainly for observation) [1] - PVC: Not specified - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ (Indicating a bearish bias, with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the disk) [1] - PX: Not specified - PTA: Not specified - Ethylene Glycol: Not specified - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ (Indicating short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, poor operability on the current disk, mainly for observation) [1] - Glass: Not specified - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (Indicating a bearish bias, with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the disk) [1] - Bottle Chip: Not specified Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows complex trends, with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products face supply shortages, while others are affected by cost, demand, and policy factors [2][3][5] - There are risks such as demand shrinkage due to downstream profit pressure and supply - demand imbalance in the market, and at the same time, there are also potential investment opportunities in some products [2][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined, with tight supply in the short term and limited support from the demand side due to high raw material costs. There is a risk of demand shrinkage [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures were volatile. For polyethylene, inventory was smoothly reduced, but demand support is expected to weaken. For polypropylene, although there is policy support, demand has been pre - consumed, and the upward - driving force for supply - demand fundamentals is insufficient [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices rose due to port de - stocking and refinery production cuts. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and strong [3] - Styrene futures rose. The market is in a tight - balance state, with expected port de - stocking, low enterprise inventory, and export support [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are expected to decline due to weak cost support and inventory accumulation. There may be investment opportunities in the second quarter, but it depends on downstream demand [5] - Ethylene glycol is affected by new domestic production and overseas shutdowns. There may be short - term improvement in the second quarter, but it is under long - term pressure [5] - Short - fiber enterprises have high loads and low inventory, but downstream orders are weak. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [5] - Bottle chip production has decreased, and the processing margin has improved, but there is still long - term capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices continued to decline. Although there is port de - stocking, demand has decreased, and the market is expected to be volatile and stalemate. There is support from reduced imports in the first quarter [6] - Urea production has increased, and downstream demand has also risen. The short - term market may decline slightly, but it is likely to be strong within a range as agricultural demand starts [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices weakened. Production capacity utilization has declined, and cost has increased. It is expected to reduce production capacity this year, and the price center may rise [7] - Caustic soda is in a weak state, with high inventory pressure. The industry is generally in a loss, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration is expected to be compressed [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuated widely. Inventory pressure is still high, supply pressure is large, and downstream demand is weak. A high - short strategy is recommended [8] - Glass prices declined due to ignition plans. The industry is de - stocking, but there may be an increase in supply. The order situation is poor, and there may be seasonal inventory accumulation [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the Greenland issue, the US and Europe imposed tariffs on each other over the weekend, leading to a resurgence of risk aversion. China's GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year-on-year, and the economic data in December generally met expectations. Market sentiment was slightly optimistic, the RMB soared to a new high, and the US dollar declined slightly. Non-ferrous metals fluctuated throughout the day and all fell. Today, Shanghai Aluminum fell, London Aluminum rose, and domestic spot aluminum fell. [4] - Technically, US crude oil tumbled today, while London Aluminum rose slightly and traded around $3,152. Shanghai Aluminum rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom today, closing at 24,090, with a neutral technical pattern. The trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum decreased and the positions remained stable, and market sentiment was cautious. Recently, the situation in Russia and Ukraine remains unclear, the international situation is tense, and market sentiment is neutral. At the same time, the speculation on metals has cooled down slightly, and capital enthusiasm has declined. In the short term, aluminum prices will fluctuate at a high level. In the future, if copper prices fall, it may drive aluminum prices weaker. At the same time, attention should be paid to the situation of spot demand. [5] Summary by Related Catalog Market Situation - Today, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 24,090, and the spot price was 23,870. The spot price was at a discount of -220 points to the futures price. This week, Shanghai Aluminum rose first and then fell, and the spot discount widened to -150 yuan. Supply exceeded demand, and spot trading improved. [4] - This week, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased significantly, and the alumina inventory increased slightly. The aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly, and the spot demand was poor at the high level in the off-season. The LME inventory decreased slightly, and the LME spot price had a premium of $9. Overseas spot demand improved. [4] - This week, the RMB exchange rate rose significantly, and the Shanghai-London ratio of aluminum prices dropped to 7.62. The trends of the domestic and overseas markets were generally the same. [4] Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | LME Aluminum - Futures-Spot Price Difference | Main Contract Shanghai-London Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | January 13 | 6.9735 | -90 | 10 | 7.76 | | January 14 | 6.9714 | -120 | 22 | 7.66 | | January 15 | 6.9629 | -140 | 17 | 7.68 | | January 16 | 6.9674 | -170 | 1 | 7.68 | | January 19 | 6.9581 | -150 | 9 | 7.62 | [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The black sector showed a weak and fluctuating trend last week, with finished products stronger than raw materials. The strength relationship among varieties in terms of index fluctuations was rebar > hot-rolled coil > iron ore > coke > coking coal. The black sector performed relatively flat in the entire futures market [4]. - Overseas political situation is turbulent, increasing global uncertainties. The domestic central bank has taken a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the rediscount and re - loan interest rates [4]. - Steel demand rebounded last week, and inventory decreased again, with minor supply - demand contradictions. On the raw material side, both coking coal, coke, and iron ore were accumulating inventory, but downstream has started restocking [4]. Summaries by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector trended weakly and fluctuated last week, with finished products stronger than raw materials [4][6] 02 Futures Market Rise - Fall Comparison - Futures prices showed a mixed trend, with silver and Shanghai tin rising significantly, while the black sector was relatively flat [4][8] 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and iron ore prices decreased slightly [14] 04 Profit and Valuation - The profitability rate of steel mills increased slightly, and the valuation of rebar futures was neutral [18] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand rebounded week - on - week, and inventory decreased again [20] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Hot metal production declined unexpectedly, and both steel mill and port iron ore inventories increased. Steel mills started restocking before the holiday. Iron ore shipments have been declining continuously, but arrivals are still at a high level, and it is expected to remain in an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short term [5][30] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Raw coal production increased last week, and coking coal inventory continued to accumulate. However, coal washing plants and independent coking plants started restocking [5][33] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly week - on - week, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches [5][35] 09 Variety Spreads - The mill's on - paper profit improved, and the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio increased [37] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - From April 1, the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaic will be cancelled. From April 1 to December 31, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled [42]. - On January 12, US President Trump stated that any country conducting business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all its business with the US [42]. - Trump said that the US government may shut down again on January 30 [42]. - Citigroup expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in March, July, and September, while Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September [42]. - Since January 13, 2026, Shagang has raised the price of scrap steel by 50 yuan/ton [42]. - The US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining the same as the previous value [42]. - The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges have adjusted the margin ratio for margin trading, raising the minimum margin ratio for investors' margin - buying of securities from 80% to 100% [42]. - The World Steel Association reported that from 2014 to 2024, the indirect steel exports of 74 countries increased from 325 million tons to 410 million tons, a 26% increase. In 2024, the indirect steel trade volume was equivalent to 93% of the direct export volume [42]. - The central bank has taken a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the rediscount and re - loan interest rates [4][42]. - During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the State Grid's fixed - asset investment will reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the 14th Five - Year Plan period [42]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380 strengthened, the monthly spread rebounded significantly. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe rebounded, and the monthly spread also rebounded significantly. The high-sulfur EW was in a high-level oscillation. The cracking spread of Singapore 0.5% was at a historical low for the same period, rebounding month-on-month. The monthly spread strengthened slightly, and the basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil had a slight inventory build, at a historical high year-on-year, ARA's residual oil had a slight inventory draw, and Fujairah's residual oil had an inventory build. This week, the situation in Iran affected the global heavy oil valuation. In the short term, the driving force of high-sulfur was stronger than that of low-sulfur. The high-sulfur spot tightened, and the cracking spread rebounded. The short-term downside space was limited, and the low-sulfur external market remained weak [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 | 319.41 | 338.39 | 342.84 | 333.76 | 341.06 | 7.30 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 | 381.51 | 393.07 | 397.96 | 384.56 | 389.58 | 5.02 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -12.48 | -11.61 | -11.23 | -10.45 | -10.09 | 0.36 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 | 606.35 | 634.60 | 639.10 | 621.40 | 634.20 | 12.80 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -224.84 | -241.53 | -241.14 | -236.84 | -244.62 | -7.78 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 19.89 | 21.98 | 21.50 | 21.81 | 23.19 | 1.38 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 62.10 | 54.68 | 55.12 | 50.80 | 48.52 | -2.28 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 338.12 | 346.25 | 360.39 | 359.16 | 356.84 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 346.55 | 353.19 | 366.14 | 363.46 | 363.27 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 418.09 | 422.84 | 428.26 | 426.98 | 426.45 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 79.92 | 81.26 | 82.45 | 81.65 | 81.51 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -9.22 | -8.90 | -7.37 | -7.10 | -6.79 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -173.32 | -178.48 | -181.87 | -177.23 | -176.72 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 337.29 | 344.30 | 358.10 | 358.88 | 358.34 | -0.54 | | FOB VLSFO | 417.42 | 424.25 | 431.74 | 429.02 | 429.37 | 0.35 | | 380 Basis | -1.22 | -1.80 | -1.50 | -1.45 | -1.65 | -0.20 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 14.4 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 13.9 | 13.7 | -0.2 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 12.2 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 14.9 | 15.3 | 0.4 | [2] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2436 | 2451 | 2513 | 2510 | 2485 | -25 | | FU 05 | 2465 | 2469 | 2578 | 2566 | 2520 | -46 | | FU 09 | 2452 | 2467 | 2546 | 2533 | 2498 | -35 | | FU 01 - 05 | -29 | -18 | -65 | -56 | -35 | 21 | | FU 05 - 09 | 13 | 2 | 32 | 33 | 22 | -11 | | FU 09 - 01 | 16 | 16 | 33 | 23 | 13 | -10 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2026/01/12 | 2026/01/13 | 2026/01/14 | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3088 | 3112 | 3159 | 3166 | 3088 | -78 | | LU 05 | 3019 | 3063 | 3087 | 3074 | 3041 | -33 | | LU 09 | 3050 | 3081 | 3112 | 3090 | 3056 | -34 | | LU 01 - 05 | 69 | 49 | 72 | 92 | 47 | -45 | | LU 05 - 09 | -31 | -18 | -25 | -16 | -15 | 1 | | LU 09 - 01 | -38 | -31 | -47 | -76 | -32 | 44 | [3]