Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The USDA has adjusted the planting area and yield of new - crop soybeans in the United States, leading to a decrease in the estimated production of new - crop soybeans and a significant tightening of the ending stocks. The prices of soybean meal futures are supported by the cost of imports. For palm oil, the increase in production and exports in Malaysia, along with concerns about Indonesia's production and policy, will cause short - term oscillations in the oil market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are provided, along with their price changes, price differences, and price - to - price difference ratios. For example, the previous day's closing price of soybean oil futures was 8526, with a price increase of 10 and a price increase rate of 0.12%. The current value of the Y9 - 1 spread was 32, compared to a previous value of 28 [1] - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and price increase rates of international futures such as BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, and others are presented. For instance, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4473, with a price increase of 135 and a price increase rate of 3.11% [1] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current spot prices, price increase rates, spot basis, and spot price differences of domestic products like soybean oil, palm oil, and others are given. For example, the current spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8730, with a price increase rate of 0.00%, and the spot basis is 204 [1] - **Import and Profit**: The current and previous values of import profit for varieties such as Malaysian palm oil, U.S. Gulf soybeans, and others are provided. For example, the current import profit of Malaysian palm oil is - 195, compared to a previous value of - 204 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are presented. For example, the current value of soybean oil warehouse receipts is 15,310, the same as the previous value [1] Industry Information - **Crop Inspection**: ProFarmer's crop inspection estimates that the corn yield per acre in Ohio in 2025 will be 185.69 bushels, and the average number of soybean pods in Ohio will be 1287.28, showing an increase compared to 2024 [2] - **Protein Meal**: The USDA has adjusted the planting area and yield of new - crop soybeans in the United States, resulting in a decrease in the estimated production of new - crop soybeans from 43.35 billion bushels to 42.92 billion bushels. The export estimate of U.S. soybeans has been further reduced to 17.05 billion bushels, and the ending stocks of U.S. soybean futures in the 25/26 season have decreased to 2.9 billion bushels [2] - **Oils**: According to high - frequency data, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 0.88% compared to the same period last month, and the export volume increased by 34.5%. Indonesia's policies and actions have also affected the palm oil market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Views - The short - term trend of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is bullish, but caution is needed when chasing long positions. Palm oil is generally bullish, and the strategy is to go long on dips. Cotton, jujube, and live pigs are cautiously bullish, with specific strategies for each variety [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Climate - neutral expectations indicate smooth soybean planting weather in the US. In China, soybeans and soybean meal are in the inventory - building stage, with the inventory - building speed in August expected to slow compared to July. The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report unexpectedly lowered the US soybean planting area but increased the yield per unit, resulting in a decrease in the final US soybean production and ending inventory. The Sino - US trade tariff is a key cost support for soybean meal. Recently, event speculation has cooled down. The short - term trend is bullishly volatile, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [1][4]. - As of August 15, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.926 million tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.804 million tons, a decrease of 301,600 tons from last week, a drop of 4.24%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0147 million tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from last week, an increase of 1.12%. The domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 8.35 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from August 8, a drop of 0.20%. The downstream has started to purchase spot goods to replenish positions. The future supply uncertainty makes feed mills' purchases cautious, but traders' acceptance is okay [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Globally, rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but there is a risk of a decrease in the yield per unit of Canadian rapeseed in the new year. In China, the rapeseed inventory of oil mills has decreased month - on - month, while the rapeseed meal inventory has increased month - on - month. The commercial inventory has decreased, but it is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. From August to October, rapeseed imports are significantly lower year - on - year, combined with a 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, anti - dumping deposits on rapeseed, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, which strongly supports the rapeseed meal price. However, the high inventory of granular meal at ports suppresses the market. The short - term trend is bullish, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [1][6]. - As of August 15, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 25,500 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from last week; the unexecuted contracts were 55,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from last week [5]. Palm Oil - The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are beneficial to the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. In July, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased but was lower than expected. The export data in the first 15 days of this month was good, boosting the market to a new high. The overall trend is to go long on dips, but attention should be paid to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine negotiation on the crude oil price [1][7]. Cotton - Internationally, the drought in the US cotton - growing area has expanded, and the non - drought rate has dropped significantly. The excellent - good rate of US cotton has increased. Brazil's cotton production is expected to be 3.935 million tons this year. Domestically, Xinjiang's new cotton is mostly in the boll - splitting stage, and the production is expected to exceed 7.4 million tons. The import volume in July was 50,000 tons. The commercial inventory has decreased. The demand is improving, and the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking market is starting. The short - term focus is on the supply before the new cotton is listed. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, and those with long positions at low levels should consider partial profit - taking [1][10][11]. Jujube - New - season jujube production is expected to be in the range of 500,000 - 580,000 tons in the 2025/26 season in southern Xinjiang, with a definite reduction in production but a smaller reduction than in 2023/24. The inventory removal speed has accelerated recently. Before November, the speculation around the purchase price is expected to be long, which is beneficial to the bullish trend. The strategy is to go long on dips [1][14]. Live Pigs - In the short term, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises in August has increased. There is supply pressure from second - fattening. In the medium term, the number of new - born piglets from January to July has increased, indicating potential growth in slaughter volume in the second half of the year. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows remains high, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. The demand is gradually recovering. The short - term pressure on the spot market remains, but the far - month contracts may rise due to the capacity reduction of leading enterprises. It is not recommended to short - sell blindly in the short term. Consider going long on far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage operations [1][16][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views - The steel market may experience weak and volatile prices in the short - term due to decreased demand in the off - season and expected production restrictions in Tangshan [1]. - The methanol 01 contract is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, with a suggested strategy of short - selling on rebounds [2]. - The manganese silicon price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and its upside potential is limited in the long - term [4]. - The coking coal futures are expected to be volatile in the short - term as the supply recovery is slow and demand has slowed down [5]. - The short - term price of live pigs futures is stable, and farmers are advised to sell and hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. - The palm oil price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term [7]. - The domestic soybean price is expected to be weakly stable in the short - term [7]. - The L2601 contract of plastics is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, with a suggested strategy of short - selling on rebounds [8]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9]. - The silver is still expected to be bullish with increased volatility recently [9]. - The gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but be bearish in the medium - term [10]. - The medium - and long - term treasury bonds are expected to rebound in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - term [10]. - The crude oil is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [12]. - The polyester staple fiber is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - The rubber is expected to be in a range - bound and weak in the short - term [13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - On August 19, the domestic steel market price fell weakly. The average price of rebar in major cities was 3347 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The demand for steel in the off - season continued to decline, and the supply - demand pressure increased. However, considering the planned production restrictions of Tangshan steel mills at the end of August and early September, the market bearish sentiment was not strong [1]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest decreased by 0.75 tons to 2.83 tons. The market price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2280 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 9.63 tons to 102.18 tons, and the production enterprise inventory increased by 0.19 tons to 29.56 tons. The methanol capacity utilization rate rose by 0.97% to 82.4%, while the downstream total capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.34% to 72.36% [2]. Manganese Silicon - The national开工率 (capacity utilization rate) of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 45.75%, up 2.32% from the previous week, and the daily average output increased by 1605 tons to 29580 tons. The cost support of manganese silicon was strong, but the supply - demand relationship tended to be loose due to the resumption of production by manufacturers [4]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 74.13%, up 0.38%. The daily average coke production increased by 0.27 to 52.29, the coke inventory decreased by 5.32 to 39.31, the total coking coal inventory decreased by 3.34 to 829.41, and the available days of coking coal decreased by 0.11 days to 11.9 days [5]. Live Pigs - On August 19, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.09 points to 115.33, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.11 points to 115.70. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 20.21 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of eggs rose 1.8% to 7.73 yuan/kg [6]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects the palm oil price to remain above 4300 ringgit. The domestic spot price decreased, and the trading volume was slightly boosted. The international soybean - palm oil price spread was inverted again, affecting future demand, but there was still support from holiday stocking in India and China [7]. Soybean - Brazil's soybean export volume in August is expected to reach 890 tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 880 tons. The domestic soybean market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. The new soybeans have not been listed in large quantities, but the state - reserve auctions have supplemented the market supply. The demand is weak due to high - temperature weather and the impact of other food prices [7]. Plastics - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China was 7327 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The weekly production was 28.96 tons, down 3.6%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 16% to 15.17 tons. The oil - based daily production profit was - 244 yuan/ton. The average opening rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.3% [8]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash was 1326 yuan/ton, showing weak and volatile trends recently. The weekly production was 76.13 tons, up 2.24%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased by 1.54% to 189.38 tons. The opening rate of float glass was 75.34%, up 0.15% [9]. Silver - The S&P confirmed the US "AA +/A - 1+" sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook. The market believes that the US economy is still resilient, and the US dollar index has rebounded, putting pressure on precious metals. However, the silver is still expected to be bullish with increased volatility [9]. Gold - The geopolitical situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict shows signs of easing, and the safe - haven sentiment has cooled. Coupled with the Fed's interest - rate cut and the rise of the US dollar index, the gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but be bearish in the medium - term [10]. Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank increased the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan. The bond market may rebound in the short - term due to loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, but it is bearish in the medium - term [10]. Crude Oil - As of the week ending August 15, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.4 million barrels, the distillate inventory increased by 0.5 million barrels, and the gasoline inventory increased by 1 million barrels. The profit of China's diesel and gasoline exports was poor, and India's economic growth rate was lower than expected, putting pressure on the oil market. The short - term crude oil has no upward driving force and is expected to be weak and volatile [11][12]. Short - fiber - The average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 86.45%, down 0.04% from the previous period. The production was 16.35 tons, down 0.01 tons or 0.06%. The average opening rate of the pure - polyester yarn industry was 70.96%, unchanged from the previous period. The average cash flow of the polyester staple fiber industry was - 223.77 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [12]. Rubber - The price of raw rubber glue in Thailand was 54.7 baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber was 49.8 baht/kg. In July 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 94.364 million, down 7.3% year - on - year. From January to July, the production increased by 0.7% to 686.115 million compared with the same period last year. The supply was stable, the social inventory decreased slightly, and the demand was weak [13].

通惠期货研发部 李英杰 乙二醇供给增量叠加累库压制，延续偏弱震荡 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差：乙二醇主力合约从8月15日的4412元/吨下跌至8月18日的 4392元/吨，跌幅0.45%，延续偏弱震荡走势；同期华东现货价格从4455元/ 吨回落至4435元/吨，基差由48元/吨扩大至68元/吨，现货升水走强反映短 期供需矛盾有所加剧。分合约价差显示，1-5价差进一步走阔至-43元/吨， 表明近月压力大于远月预期。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量从14.8万手降至13.3万手，降幅达10.54%， 但成交量从7.2万手激增至11.0万手，增幅53.7%，显示价格波动加剧引发 资金活跃度提升，但部分空头资金存在主动减仓行为。 供给端：乙二醇开工率由62.64%升至64.05%，油制路线开工率显著提升2.4 个百分点至64.13%，煤制开工率维持64.03%未变，总体供给压力小幅增 加，煤化工装置负荷仍维持高位。 需求端：聚酯工厂负荷稳定于89.42%，江浙织机负荷亦维持63.43%未变， 下游需求进入平台期，缺乏新增订单驱动下，原料补库意愿有限。 库存端：华东主港库存一周内增加5.9万吨至48.57万吨，其中张 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not rated - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated - Styrene: Not rated - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: Not rated - Caustic Soda: Not rated - PX: Not rated - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not rated - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: Not rated - Bottle Chip: Not rated - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The olefin and polyolefin futures contracts showed different trends. The olefin futures declined, while the polyolefin futures oscillated weakly. The supply and demand fundamentals of polyolefins were weak, putting pressure on prices [2]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets had their own characteristics. The pure benzene market was expected to improve in the third - quarter mid - late stage but face pressure in the fourth quarter. The styrene market had cost support but limited unilateral drive [3]. - In the polyester market, PX and PTA had different price trends, and the polyester industry was expected to increase its load. Ethylene glycol was in short - term low - level oscillation, and short - fiber was recommended for long - term configuration [4]. - The methanol market was in a weak trend, and the urea market was affected by export news and market sentiment [5]. - The PVC market was weak, and the caustic soda market had short - term support but long - term supply pressure [6]. - The soda ash market was in a long - term oversupply situation, and the glass market was expected to be near the cost line [7]. Summary by Directory Olefin - Polyolefin - Olefin futures: The main contracts of olefin futures closed down. There were both start - up and shutdown plans for devices. The inventory pressure of producers was relatively controllable, and the downstream demand was general [2]. - Polyolefin futures: The main contracts of polyolefin futures oscillated weakly. The supply of polyethylene decreased slightly, and the demand improvement was limited. The supply of polypropylene was expected to increase, and the demand was weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: The pure benzene market was expected to improve seasonally in the third - quarter mid - late stage but face pressure in the fourth quarter. It was recommended to operate on the monthly spread [3]. - Styrene: The styrene market had cost support, but the unilateral drive was limited. The domestic production was expected to increase [3]. Polyester - PX - PTA: The price of PX increased slightly, and the PX - PTA spread shrank. The polyester industry was expected to increase its load, and the PX supply - demand was expected to improve [4]. - Ethylene glycol: The ethylene glycol price was above 4400 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased, and it was in short - term low - level oscillation [4]. - Short fiber: The short - fiber supply - demand was stable, and it was recommended for long - term configuration and monthly spread positive arbitrage [4]. - Bottle chip: The bottle - chip processing spread oscillated at a low level, and over - capacity limited the repair space [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The methanol market continued to decline, and the port inventory was expected to reach a historical high in the third - quarter end [5]. - Urea: The urea market was affected by export news and market sentiment. The supply - demand was loose in the short term [5]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC: The PVC market was weak. The export competition pressure increased, the supply was high, and the demand was insufficient [6]. - Caustic soda: The caustic soda market had short - term support from replenishment demand but long - term supply pressure [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: The soda ash market was in a long - term oversupply situation, and the price was under pressure [7]. - Glass: The glass market was expected to be near the cost line, and the short - term real - world trading was weak [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU is cautiously bullish, NR is neutral, and BR is neutral [4][5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent support for natural rubber comes from the macro - environment and upstream cost. With continuous rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas this week, raw material prices are expected to remain firm, but will fall after the rain stops. The overall supply pressure is small due to low domestic arrivals, but arrivals are expected to increase at the end of August. The downstream tire operating rates are divided, with semi - steel tire operating rates falling and all - steel tire operating rates rising. Attention should be paid to tire manufacturers' stocking willingness before the traditional peak demand season [4] - For BR, the overall supply is expected to increase this week as some upstream devices restart and some undergo short - term maintenance. The downstream tire operating rates are divided, and the weakening of semi - steel tire operating rates has a more obvious impact on BR, resulting in a weak supply - demand pattern. Upstream butadiene prices are expected to remain strong, and the price of surrounding natural rubber also has a certain pulling effect on BR [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,820 yuan/ton, a change of - 85 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,650 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the Thai 20 - gauge standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,805 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the Indonesian 20 - gauge standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,755 US dollars/ton, a change of - 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, a change of + 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton, a change of + 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Market Information - In July 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 634,000 tons, a 3.4% increase from the same period in 2024 [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to July, the export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase from the same period in 2024. In July alone, the export volume increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, including exports and new - energy models, a nearly 42% increase from 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] - In the first half of 2025, the United States imported a total of 143.43 million tires, a 6.8% year - on - year increase. Among them, passenger car tire imports increased by 3% year - on - year to 84.89 million; truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% year - on - year to 32.32 million; aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% year - on - year to 132,000; motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% year - on - year to 1.88 million; bicycle tire imports increased by 5% year - on - year to 3.15 million [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On August 18, 2025, the RU basis was - 970 yuan/ton (+ 35), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,220 yuan/ton (- 35), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,426 yuan/ton (+ 645.59), the NR basis was 224.00 yuan/ton (- 20.00); whole latex was 14,850 yuan/ton (- 50), mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (- 50), 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,805 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was 0 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,300 yuan/ton (- 150) [3] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 61.28 Thai baht/kg (- 1.87), Thai latex was 54.20 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai cup lump was 49.45 Thai baht/kg (- 0.35), the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.75 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.35) [3] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.62% (+ 2.56%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.11% (- 0.60%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,277,859 tons (- 10,990.00), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 616,731 tons (- 3,121), the RU futures inventory was 179,930 tons (+ 3,650), and the NR futures inventory was 46,469 tons (+ 4,234) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On August 18, 2025, the BR basis was - 100 yuan/ton (+ 215), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+ 100), the quoted price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton (+ 100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,091 yuan/ton (+ 56) [3] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.52% (- 3.65%) [4] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,990 tons (- 300), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 23,450 tons (- 700) [4]

1. Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Sugar - Brazilian sugarcane yield decline and concerns over lower sugar - making ratios may lead to a downward revision of Brazil's sugar production. The ICE raw sugar is expected to face difficulty in significant short - term drops and may test the 17 - cent/lb resistance level. In China, sugar imports in July are expected to be much higher than the same period last year, but with the price rebound and improved de - stocking in Guangxi, the overall sugar price is supported. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to trade in a range with reduced downward momentum [1]. Cotton - After the cotton price stabilized in early August, the downstream industry has slightly improved. The inventory of cotton yarn products has decreased slightly, and the spinning mills' operation rate has remained stable. The cotton price is supported in the short term, but the expected increase in new - season cotton production may put pressure on the price when new cotton is listed [2]. Eggs - With a large number of laying hens in stock, egg production is generally abundant. Cold - storage eggs are expected to enter the market soon, increasing supply pressure. The downstream digestion speed is average, so egg prices are expected to remain bearish [6]. Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has stabilized, and downstream procurement is smooth. However, farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices and some secondary fattening activities support the price. The supply and demand are both weak. In August, the group - farm slaughter is expected to recover, and there is also an inventory of large pigs from small - scale farmers waiting to be sold. The long - term price outlook is not optimistic. The far - month 01 contract is affected by policies, and with the slowdown in production capacity growth, there is some support at the bottom [7]. Meal - The USDA monthly supply - demand report has supported US soybeans, but the high good - rate of new - season US soybeans and China's non - import of new - season US soybeans still pose upward pressure. After a short - term rally, the meal futures may face difficulties in further climbing. The domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising, and the spot market is under pressure. It is recommended to buy long - term contracts at low prices [11]. Corn - Policy - driven import corn auctions have low trading volumes. On the supply side, the inventory of traders in production areas is low, and the price is weak in the Northeast. In North China, the price rebound is limited due to the upcoming new - season corn. The demand side lacks obvious highlights, and the substitution of wheat also squeezes corn demand. The corn futures are expected to trade weakly in the short term and may face more pressure from the new - season supply in the medium term [13]. Fats and Oils - Palm oil may face downward pressure in the international market but has an upward trend in the domestic Dalian market, with an expected target of 9800 - 10000 yuan. Soybean oil is affected by the potential decline in US soybean oil industrial use and the drop in CBOT soybean prices. In China, the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and the spot basis quotation may vary with the futures price movement [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Futures Market - The price of Sugar 2601 increased by 0.14% to 5672 yuan/ton, while Sugar 2509 decreased by 0.07% to 5736 yuan/ton. The ICE raw sugar主力 dropped by 1.40% to 16.24 cents/lb. The 1 - 9 spread of sugar increased by 15.79% to - 64 yuan/ton. The main - contract open interest rose by 2.34% to 322,832 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.01% to 16,931 [1]. Spot Market - The prices in Nanning and Kunming remained stable and decreased slightly respectively. The Nanning basis increased by 1.67% to 244 yuan/ton, and the Kunming basis decreased by 0.83% to 119 yuan/ton. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) increased slightly [1]. Industry Situation - Nationally, the cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03% to 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sales increased by 15.76% to 9.55 million tons. The cumulative sales ratio increased by 3.36% to 85.60%. In Guangxi, the cumulative production increased by 4.59% to 6.465 million tons, but the monthly sales decreased by 37.99% to 355,500 tons. The industrial inventory decreased in most regions, and sugar imports increased by 160% to 130,000 tons [1]. Cotton Futures Market - Cotton 2509 decreased by 0.04% to 13,830 yuan/ton, and Cotton 2601 increased by 0.04% to 14,125 yuan/ton. The ICE US cotton主力 rose by 0.53% to 67.84 cents/lb. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.51% to - 295 yuan/ton. The main - contract open interest increased by 1.77% to 486,067 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.86% to 7,762 [2]. Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B cotton increased slightly, while the FC Index:M: 1% decreased slightly. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract increased by 1.21% to 1,252 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The commercial inventory decreased by 13.9% to 2.1898 million tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 1.8% to 0.8984 million tons. The import volume increased by 66.7% to 50,000 tons. The inventory in bonded areas decreased by 8.0% to 301,000 tons. The inventory days of yarn and grey cloth decreased, and the cotton outbound shipment increased by 22.6% to 534,600 tons. The processing profit of spinning mills decreased, and the retail sales of clothing and textiles decreased [2]. Eggs Futures and Spot Market - The prices of the 09 and 10 egg contracts decreased by 2.70% and 2.17% respectively. The egg price in the production area increased by 5.47% to 3.31 yuan/jin. The basis increased by 567.84% to 198 yuan/500KG. The 9 - 10 spread decreased by 850.00% to - 15 [5]. Industry Situation - The price of egg - laying chicken chicks decreased by 6.49% to 3.60 yuan/chick, the price of culled chickens decreased by 3.53% to 5.47 yuan/jin, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 7.20% to 2.45, and the breeding profit decreased by 111.23% to - 21.44 yuan/chick [5]. Pigs Futures Market - The prices of the 2511 and 2601 live - pig contracts decreased by 0.90% and 0.46% respectively. The 11 - 1 spread decreased by 21.43% to - 340 yuan/ton. The main - contract open interest increased by 9.79% to 71,193 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. Spot Market - The spot prices in most regions decreased slightly, with the exception of Guangdong where the price remained stable. The main - contract basis decreased by 9.33% to - 410 yuan/ton [7]. Industry Situation - The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 0.54% to 140,396 heads. The weekly white - strip price, pig -let price, and sow price remained unchanged. The average slaughter weight increased slightly. The self - breeding profit decreased by 36.07% to 29 yuan/head, and the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 17.08% to - 157 yuan/head. The monthly inventory of breeding sows increased slightly [7]. Meal Futures and Spot Market - The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained stable, while the M2601 contract increased by 0.57%. The basis of M2601 decreased by 26.87%. The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 1.53%, and the RM2601 contract increased by 1.73%. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 6.25%. The price of Harbin soybeans decreased by 0.25%, and the price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained stable [11]. Industry Situation - The soybean and meal inventories in China are rising, and the short - term supply is high due to high arrivals and high operation rates, which suppresses the spot market [11]. Corn Futures and Spot Market - The price of the 2511 corn contract decreased by 0.59%. The basis of Jinzhou Port increased by 2.31%. The 11 - 3 spread decreased by 18.75%. The price of the 2509 corn starch contract decreased by 0.77%, and the basis increased by 20.83% [13]. Industry Situation - Policy - driven import corn auctions have low trading volumes. The supply in production areas is weak in the Northeast and limited by the upcoming new - season corn in North China. The demand side lacks highlights, and wheat substitution squeezes corn demand [13]. Fats and Oils Futures and Spot Market - The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.57%, the Y2601 contract decreased by 0.16%, and the basis increased by 29.36%. The price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil increased by 2.90%, the P2601 contract increased by 1.49%, and the basis increased by 138.30%. The price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil increased by 1.31%, the OI601 contract increased by 0.46%, and the basis increased by 91.40% [16]. Industry Situation - Palm oil may face downward pressure in the international market but has an upward trend in the domestic market. Soybean oil is affected by the potential decline in US soybean oil industrial use and the drop in CBOT soybean prices. The supply of soybean oil in China is sufficient [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - Indonesia's crackdown on illegal plantations has led to a volatile and upward - trending palm oil market. The price of palm oil is affected by Indonesia's policy of confiscating illegal plantations, and the market is also influenced by factors such as the inventory and production of various oils [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,584.00 yuan/ton, a +1.31% change; the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,516.00 yuan/ton, a -0.21% change; the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,826.00 yuan/ton, a +0.71% change [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the palm oil spot price was 9,510.00 yuan/ton, a +2.04% change; in Tianjin, the first - grade soybean oil spot price was 8,630.00 yuan/ton, a +0.12% change; in Jiangsu, the fourth - grade rapeseed oil spot price was 9,960.00 yuan/ton, a +0.91% change [1] Market Information Aggregation - As of August 18, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.75865 million tons, a decrease of 82,400 tons from the previous week [2] - From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and production increased by 0.88% month - on - month [2] - As of August 15, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 104,500 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts were 82,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week [2] - The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (September and November shipments) decreased, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed oil (September and November shipments) increased. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed (October and December shipments) decreased, and the C&F prices of US and Brazilian soybeans increased [2] - The import soybean premium quotes also increased [2] Policy Impact - Indonesian President Prabowo launched a large - scale natural resource rectification campaign, confiscating 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm plantations, equivalent to 20% of the country's official total plantation area, and another 5 million hectares are under government review, causing palm oil to strengthen [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand. The improvement of rigid demand is still weak under the influence of weather and funds, and speculative demand is also weak. The destocking rate of social inventory is weaker than the seasonal average. The current market pressure is limited, but if oil prices continue to fall, asphalt prices will weaken further. The meeting between the US and Russian presidents is worth watching, as changes in US sanctions policies may bring additional volatility risks to the crude oil and asphalt markets [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis - On August 18, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon was 3,473 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 225,280 lots, a decrease of 1,549 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 175,487 lots, an increase of 29,255 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,856 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3,500 - 3,870 yuan/ton; South China, 3,490 - 3,530 yuan/ton; East China, 3,600 - 3,750 yuan/ton [1]. - The asphalt spot prices in the northwest market were relatively stable yesterday, while those in other regions declined to varying degrees. Due to the recent weak oil price trend and poor asphalt demand, market sentiment is cautious [2]. Group 4: Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery spread: None - Inter - commodity spread: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [3] Group 5: Figures - The report includes figures on spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic and regional asphalt production, domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproof, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt refinery and social inventories [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][9] Group 2: Report Core Views - The cotton market has limited upward momentum and will likely continue to fluctuate. Although the global supply - demand pattern has shifted to a tighter one, there are doubts about the supply reduction, and the downstream demand is weak. In the medium - term, new cotton listings may suppress prices [1][2] - The sugar market will mainly follow the trend of raw sugar. In the short - term, it will be range - bound due to domestic spot pressure, but there may be a tail - end rally in the fourth quarter [4][6] - The pulp market has no obvious improvement in fundamentals and lacks positive drivers. It is expected to continue low - level fluctuations in the short term [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Cotton 2601 futures closed at 14,125 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,082 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,234 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton [1] - In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton planting area was 56.311 million mu, a decrease of 5.117 million mu, and the harvest area was 44.65 million mu, a decrease of 7.928 million mu, with an abandonment rate of 20.7%, up 6.3 percentage points [1] - India's 2023/24 cotton production was expected to be 5.72 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons (+3.4%), and imports were expected to be 258,000 tons, a decrease of about 40,000 tons (-13.1%). The ending inventory increased by 153,000 tons to 666,000 tons (+29.8%) [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's reduction in global cotton production and ending inventory made the supply - demand pattern tighter, but the lack of abnormal weather in the US cotton - growing areas and other major producing countries led to doubts about the tight pattern, and ICE cotton fluctuated [2] - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton rose with the external market. The rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton in July, low expected imports in the third quarter, and the non - issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas supported cotton prices in the short term. However, weak downstream demand limited the upside. In the medium - term, new cotton listings may suppress prices [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The low inventory and upcoming textile peak season support cotton prices, but potential regulatory policies and the lack of long - term upward drivers limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Sugar 2601 futures closed at 5,672 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.14%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,980 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [4] - Pakistan decided to import 85,000 tons of sugar to meet domestic demand and stabilize prices [4] Market Analysis - The Brazilian bi - weekly report showed a slight decrease in sugarcane crushing and sugar production but a record - high sugar - making ratio, leading to a decline in raw sugar futures. However, concerns about sugarcane quality and downward revisions of Brazilian production estimates limited the decline [5][6] - In the domestic market, the slowdown in domestic sugar sales, high import profits, and large - scale arrival of imported sugar increased spot pressure. In the medium - term, low inventory and potential delays in the new crushing season may lead to a rally in the fourth quarter [6] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended, with a focus on changes in Brazilian production estimates [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Pulp 2511 futures closed at 5,252 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [6] - The import pulp spot market was generally stable, with individual price adjustments [7] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year, especially for hardwood pulp. With the commissioning of domestic pulp production capacity in the second half of the year, the import volume is expected to decline. However, slow port de - stocking and high inventory levels mean that supply pressure remains, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [8] - Demand: Weak pulp consumption in Europe and the US, increasing inventory pressure on global pulp mills, and a traditional off - season in the domestic market led to weak demand. Low effective terminal demand, low paper mill operating rates, and over - capacity in the paper industry limited demand improvement [8] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. With no obvious improvement in the pulp market fundamentals, prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations [9]