Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 12 日星期一 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ICE3 月合约结算价 64.41 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The current demand for steel is weak, and prices have fully priced in the weak demand. Before the holiday, attention should be paid to the impact of policies on the expected demand for steel. In December, steel prices fluctuated with the rhythm of raw material prices and maintained a sideways trend. With significant steel production cuts, the downward driving force is not strong, but the weak demand expectation for the May contract restricts the upward price space. The upward elasticity depends on changes in the raw material supply side. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate within a range in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The fundamental pattern of iron ore has shifted to a situation of weak supply and demand. The price ceiling is suppressed by high inventories, and there is support from the expected restocking of steel mills below. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased this period, and the mine's fiscal year impulse is basically over. Future focus should be on the weather in the Southern Hemisphere. On the demand side, the hot - metal production continued to resume, and the resumption speed accelerated. The iron ore inventory in ports increased significantly this week, and it is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term. In the future, iron ore will gradually transition from a situation of loose supply - demand to weak supply - demand. During the off - season, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and policy expectations. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate widely in the short term [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coking coal, last week, the coking coal futures fluctuated upward. The spot prices of Shanxi increased more than decreased, and the Mongolian coal quotes rebounded following the futures. The supply side has entered the resumption stage, with improved shipments but still inventory accumulation. The demand side has seen a decrease in steel mill losses and an increase in hot - metal production, and the restocking demand has improved. For coke, last week, the coke futures also fluctuated upward. After the fourth round of price cuts on January 1st, the coke market is currently weakly stable. The supply side has a lag in coke price adjustment compared to coking coal, with pressured coking profits and increased production starts. The demand side has seen an increase in hot - metal production and a rebound in steel prices. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory has slightly increased. For both, the one - sided strategy suggests going long on dips, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and there is support from the cost side. The supply is at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the production in Inner Mongolia is stable with new capacity put into operation at the end of last year, so there is still room for short - term production growth. The demand for steelmaking has support, and the demand for ferrosilicon from the metal magnesium industry is also strong. It is expected that the price will fluctuate within the range of 5500 - 6200 yuan, and short - term attention should be paid to macro, policy expectations, and cost - side changes. For ferromanganese, it is in a state of self - oversupply but overall balance of manganese elements. The manganese ore provides support for the price, and there is also support from off - season demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and the strategy suggests range - bound operations with a reference range of 5800 - 6300 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in various regions and contract prices all decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3320 yuan to 3290 yuan, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3332 yuan to 3294 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and slabs remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu's electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 3 yuan, while the cost of converter rebar decreased by 17 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East and North China decreased, while the profit of rebar in North China increased by 28 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal production increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The production of the five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase. The production of rebar increased by 2.8 to 191.0, a 1.5% increase, with the electric - arc furnace production increasing by 6.6% and the converter production increasing by 0.5%. The production of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.0 to 305.5, a 0.3% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. The rebar inventory increased by 16.1 to 438.1, a 3.8% increase, while the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8 to 368.1, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 8.9, a 6.6% increase. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 44.2 to 796.8, a 5.3% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 25.5 to 175.0, a 12.7% decrease, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 2.4 to 308.3, a 0.8% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the 05 - contract basis of some powders changed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.5, a 2.4% increase, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 7.5 to 37.5, a 16.7% decrease [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 155.0 to 2756.4, a 6.0% increase, while the global shipment volume decreased by 463.4 to 3213.7, a 12.6% decrease. The national monthly import volume decreased by 76.9 to 11054.0, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average hot - metal production increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 1.9 to 323.3, a 0.6% decrease. The national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 320.6 to 6234.3, a 4.9% decrease, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 212.6 to 6987.1, a 3.0% decrease [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 304.4 to 16275.26, a 1.9% increase. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 43.0 to 8989.6, a 0.5% increase, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0, a 5.0% decrease [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal contracts decreased slightly. The coking profit decreased by 11, and the sample coal - mine profit decreased by 26, a 5.14% decrease [6]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.9 to 63.6, a 1.4% increase, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average production increased by 0.1 to 46.9, a 0.1% increase. The raw - coal production decreased by 2.7 to 853.4, a 0.3% decrease [6]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill hot - metal production increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased slightly. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 5.5 to 86.1, a 6.0% decrease, and the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory increased by 1.7 to 645.7, a 0.3% increase. The coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.5 to 797.7, a 0.64% decrease [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased from - 0.6 to - 0.7, a 15.1% decrease [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased. The ferrosilicon main - contract closing price decreased by 36.0 to 5632.0, a 0.6% decrease, and the ferromanganese main - contract closing price increased by 12.0 to 5904.0, a 0.24% increase [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in some regions remained unchanged, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased. The production costs of ferromanganese in some regions changed slightly, and the manganese - ore supply indicators such as shipment volume, arrival volume, and removal volume increased [7]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprise's operating rate increased slightly, and the weekly ferromanganese production decreased by 0.3 to 19.1, a 1.4% decrease [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese from the steel - making industry has support. The 247 - steel - mill daily average hot - metal production increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase [7]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.5 to 6.9, a 7.1% increase, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased by 1.1 to 38.3, a 2.8% decrease [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Apple - The trading atmosphere in the national apple market has warmed up, with increased market activity. High - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high prices may suppress consumption. Other fruits, such as citrus, have price advantages and squeeze the apple market. The inventory of ordinary apples is under pressure. Due to low inventory and a low rate of high - quality apples, the futures market has been oscillating upwards recently, and the delivery profit has been repaired. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking progress [1][5]. Red Dates - Affected by the warming sentiment in the commodity market, the futures market has rebounded and the basis has converged. The purchase in the production areas is basically over, and processing enterprises are actively arranging production and accelerating the shipment rhythm. New and old stocks are being supplied to the market. Currently, downstream buyers are purchasing as needed, and the number of buyers inspecting goods has increased, but there has been no significant improvement in transactions. The process of generating new - season warehouse receipts has accelerated. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, the rebound of red date futures is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival stocking and actual de - stocking progress [8]. Sugar - Internationally, the market's focus has shifted to Brazil's 26/27 sugar - cane crushing season starting in April. Since December, rainfall in most major producing areas in the central - southern region has exceeded the average, which is beneficial for the growth of sugar - cane in the 26/27 season and has improved the production outlook. The market initially expects the sugar - cane yield per unit area to increase by about 3% year - on - year. In India, production is strong, with cumulative sugar production reaching 11.83 million tons as of the end of December, a 24% year - on - year increase. However, due to the lack of price competitiveness, the current export progress is slow. In Thailand, the sugar - cane crushing season is progressing slowly. Domestically, the production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan are mixed, generally in line with market expectations. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises still have a certain scale of procurement demand, which can support prices. However, considering the current situation of increased production, market participants are generally cautious. It is expected that sugar prices will maintain a low - level oscillating trend [9]. Cotton - The drought index in the US cotton - producing areas continues to rise, in line with the expectations of a weak La Nina winter. However, the profits of Xinjiang textile enterprises and the cash flow of inland textile enterprises have been compressed to a low level, and the positive factors in the industrial fundamentals have been fully priced in. The widening gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices will gradually allow imported cotton to enter the market with a 40% tariff, and the unfavorable factors for Zhengzhou cotton are gradually increasing. Overall, the upward trend remains unchanged. In the short term, cotton prices may enter an adjustment phase. Attention should be paid to the support level around the 14,100 - 14,300 moving average [11]. Oils and Fats - After the release of the USDA monthly report at the beginning of the week, the uncertainty makes it unlikely for funds to continue to go long on CBOT soybeans. Moreover, as Brazilian soybeans are about to be on the market, even if CBOT soybeans rise, they will likely correct later. The market is waiting for guidance from the USDA report. If the report causes CBOT soybeans to rise, the March contract of CBOT soybeans will test the resistance at 50 cents. Malaysian palm oil futures have been oscillating upwards, waiting for the MPOB supply - demand report next Monday. The international oil market has been boosted by the more than 3% increase in the US crude oil futures price and the follow - up rise of US soybeans, which is beneficial for the domestic vegetable oil market. The negative impact of the news of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China has been basically digested, and short - selling funds have taken profits and left the market. The rapeseed oil futures have rebounded above 9,000 yuan. Before the release of key information such as the US agricultural supply - demand report, Malaysian palm oil inventory data, and possible policy changes after the China - Canada meeting, the futures market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillating pattern. In the spot market, the wait - and - see sentiment is still strong, and downstream buyers are replenishing stocks in small quantities as needed. Spot prices fluctuate with the market, and the basis quotation continues to be high [12]. Eggs - On the supply side, the recent increase in egg prices has improved breeding profitability, leading to a decrease in farmers' enthusiasm for culling laying hens. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly compared with the previous period. However, due to the influence of weather, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small and medium - sized eggs compared with large - sized eggs. The market shows a structural differentiation. Considering factors such as increased production capacity and reduced culling, the current market supply is still in an oversupply stage. On the demand side, food enterprises are in the peak production season, and their procurement volume is continuously increasing. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the festival stocking plans of all links in the terminal consumer market have been gradually launched, and the willingness to purchase at low prices has increased. However, there has been no significant change in the procurement intensity of household consumption. The current increase in demand is mainly reflected in the inventory turnover of the trading link. In the coming week, pre - Spring Festival stocking will still be the core driving force for market demand growth. After the recent price increase, the market has short - term digestion pressure and may experience a slight decline. However, the positive support factors in the market are clear, and it is expected that after a short - term adjustment, there may still be a slight increase. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around the previous high of 3,100 [13]. Corn - On the supply side, in the Northeast region, the price is strongly supported by the price - holding attitude of grass - roots farmers and the rigid - demand stocking of some downstream enterprises. In the North China region, the supply can meet the needs of enterprises, and the supply - demand is relatively balanced, with prices oscillating within a narrow range. If the supply increases before the Spring Festival, prices may weaken. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises still have the intention to replenish stocks, but their profits are slightly in the red, and they are less willing to accept high - priced corn. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventories and mainly replenish stocks on a rolling basis. On the policy side, the targeted auction of imported corn continues, and although there is a premium, it has cooled down. The policy - based corn supply is currently limited, and attention should be paid to its subsequent intensity. In general, the strong price - holding sentiment and the rigid - demand stocking intention of downstream enterprises support the corn price. However, the profit losses of downstream enterprises limit their acceptance of high prices, and the continuous policy - based supply suppresses the upward momentum of corn prices. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 2,270, as well as changes in farmers' selling attitudes and policy - based supply [16]. Live Pigs - The spot price has returned to an oscillating pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. The supply in the north has decreased, while the demand in the south has dropped significantly, and purchasing power is weak, suppressing the spot price. Recently, there has been some restocking for secondary fattening in some areas, but due to the relatively high current pig price, the overall enthusiasm is limited. However, the average weight of the存栏 has been increasing, and the subsequent market supply is expected to increase. The market is betting on pre - Spring Festival consumption, but it is expected that pigs will be slaughtered gradually in mid - to - late January. Coupled with the expected increase in supply from large - scale farms, the overall supply in January will be relatively loose, and there is limited room for further upward movement in the futures market. It is recommended to short at high prices [18][19]. Meal - The US soybeans are strongly influenced by funds and sentiment. The market is looking forward to the USDA supply - demand report on Monday, which may provide new trading guidance. In China, the speed of soybean purchases is relatively fast, and the supply will be continuously supplemented by US soybeans and reserve auctions. The visit of Canada to China has brought positive signals, and there is an expectation of improved China - Canada relations, which has led to a significant decline in domestic rapeseed prices and dragged down the soybean meal market. The domestic spot market remains in a loose pattern, with high inventories of soybeans and soybean meal. There are also many expectations of auctions recently, which also put pressure on the market. Although the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low, the arrival rhythm is uncertain. The downside of soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policy factors. In the short term, the market sentiment is relatively optimistic, and the futures market will maintain a range - bound oscillation [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple - **Futures Market**: The price of the apple 2605 (main contract) increased by 158 yuan/ton to 9,689 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.66%. The price of the apple 2610 contract increased by 21 yuan/ton to 8,472 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.25%. The futures open interest increased by 23,520 lots to 156,793 lots, a rise of 17.65% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at several fruit wholesale markets has increased, with the arrival volume at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market increasing by 40%, Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market by 37.5%, and Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market by 33.33%. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 126,600 tons to 7.209 million tons, a decline of 1.73% [1]. - **Profit**: The factory - warehouse delivery profit increased by 121 yuan/ton to 457 yuan/ton, a rise of 36.01% [1]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: The price of the red date 2605 (main contract) increased by 75 yuan/ton to 9,150 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.83%. The open interest increased by 4,234 lots to 154,819 lots, a rise of 2.81% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Cangzhou's extra - grade red dates increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,520 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.53%. The basis of extra - grade red dates in Cangzhou relative to the main contract increased by 205 yuan/ton to - 230 yuan/ton, a rise of 87.80% [8]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2605 increased by 9 yuan/ton to 5,288 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.17%. The open interest of the main contract increased by 3,135 lots to 432,813 lots, a rise of 0.73% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,370 yuan/ton. The basis in Nanning decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 82 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.89% [9]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 317,900 tons to 1.05 million tons, a decline of 23.24%. The cumulative national sugar sales decreased by 259,000 tons to 350,000 tons, a decline of 42.53% [9]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 14,675 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.44%. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 13,905 lots to 848,986 lots, a decline of 1.61% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton of grade 3128B decreased by 67 yuan/ton to 15,671 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.43% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory increased by 1.1011 million tons to 5.784 million tons, a rise of 23.5%. The export of textile yarns, fabrics, and related products increased by 10.09 percentage points year - on - year to 0.98% [11]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 30 yuan/ton to 8,520 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.35%. The basis of the Y2605 contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 526 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.66% [12]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 60 yuan/ton to 8,680 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.70%. The basis of the P2605 contract decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton, a decline of 125% [12]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.03%. The basis of the OI2605 contract increased by 14 yuan/ton to 758 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.88% [12]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 03 contract increased by 31 yuan/500KG to 3,040 yuan/500KG, a rise of 1.03%. The price of the egg 04 contract increased by 39 yuan/500KG to 3,316 yuan/500KG, a rise of 1.19% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The price of eggs in the production areas remained unchanged at 3.25 yuan/jin. The price of egg - laying chicken chicks increased by 0.10 yuan/feather to 2.90 yuan/feather, a rise of 3.57% [13]. Corn - **Futures Market**: The price of corn 2603 decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 2,263 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.13%. The open interest increased by 21,598 lots to 1,969,700 lots, a rise of 1.11% [16]. - **Spot Market**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,330 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.43%. The basis increased by 13 yuan/ton to 67 yuan/ton, a rise of 24.07% [16]. Live Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the live - pig 2605 contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 1,120 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.08%. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 2,847 lots to 168,424 lots, a decline of 1.66% [18]. - **Spot Market**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses increased by 903 to 226,460, a rise of 0.40%. The price of piglets increased by 1.0 yuan/head to 16.50 yuan/head, a rise of 6.45% [19]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,150 yuan/ton. The price of the M2605 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 2,786 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.14%. The basis decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 364 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.09% [21]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,420 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.82%. The price of the RM2605 contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,338 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.85%. The basis remained unchanged at 82 yuan/ton [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has decreased but remains at a high level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8595 - 8835 [4]. - For polysilicon, the supply side production schedule continues to decrease, the demand side shows some recovery but may be weak later, cost support has stabilized, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50050 - 52550 [10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 85,000 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous week [4]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 80,000 tons, a 9.59% increase from the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level of 302,000 tons, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss - making state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level of 53,200 tons with a production profit of 2,100 yuan/ton, and its comprehensive operating rate is 64.23%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 68,200 tons [4]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,794.9 yuan/ton, flat compared to the previous week. The cost support has increased during the dry season [4]. - Basis: On January 9th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 485 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 552,000 tons, a 0.89% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 203,300 tons, a 0.44% increase from the previous week; major port inventory is 137,000 tons, a 2.14% decrease from the previous week [4]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract is above MA20 [4]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [4]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's polysilicon production was 23,800 tons, a 0.83% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule in January is predicted to be 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 10.52 GW, a 3.33% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 262,300 tons, a 13.10% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production schedule in January is 45.2 GW, a 2.96% increase from the previous month. In December, battery cell production was 46.76 GW, a 15.91% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of battery cell export factories was 8.92 GW, a 3.36% increase from the previous week. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss - making state. The production schedule in January is 39.36 GW, a 15.82% decrease from the previous month. In December, component production was 38.7 GW, a 17.48% decrease from the previous month. It is expected that component production in January will be 32.47 GW, a 16.09% decrease from the previous month. Domestic monthly inventory is 24.76 GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and European monthly inventory is 31.3 GW, a 5.43% decrease from the previous month. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,650 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On January 9th, the price of N - type dense material was 54,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3,700 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [10]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 302,000 tons, a 1.30% decrease from the previous week, and it is at a historical high [10]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract is below MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [10]. 2. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing price: The prices of different contracts have different changes, with the 05 contract rising by 2.11% [16]. - Basis: The basis of different contracts has different changes, with the 05 contract decreasing by 27.07% [16]. - Some contract spreads: The spread between the near - month contract and the first - consecutive contract has decreased by 94.32% [16]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts has increased by 0.89% [16]. - Organic silicon and aluminum alloy related data: There are changes in production, inventory, price, and profit of organic silicon and aluminum alloy [16]. Polysilicon - Futures closing price: The prices of different contracts have decreased, with the 05 contract decreasing by 4.31% [18]. - Basis: The basis of different contracts has different changes, with the 05 contract increasing by 95.77% [18]. - Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component related data: There are changes in production, inventory, price, and profit of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [18]. 3. Other Aspects - There are also various charts and data analysis on price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon, as well as the downstream situation of industrial silicon including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [20][26][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is experiencing a tug - of - war between bulls and bears. The short - term market is expected to remain range - bound. The report suggests temporarily observing the market, and aggressive investors may consider buying on dips [8][92][93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2605 ranged between 15,680 - 16,390 yuan/ton, showing an oscillating and upward - trending pattern with a significant overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of January 9, 2026, the main contract closed at 16,030 yuan/ton, up 425 points or 2.72% for the week [6][15]. Spot Price - As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton [20]. - As of January 9, 2026, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,160 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [24]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai's Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared to the previous week. As of January 9, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 330 yuan/ton, narrowing by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [28]. - As of January 9, 2026, both the domestic and international prices of natural rubber increased slightly compared to the previous week [31]. Important Market Information - Geopolitical events include the US "blitz" on Venezuela and related international responses. The Fed's January 2026 interest - rate cut expectation was completely dashed. The US economic data showed mixed results, with some indicators improving and others weakening. China's economic data, such as CPI and PPI, showed certain trends, and the auto market had various sales data and promotional activities [32][35][36]. Supply - side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, among the main natural rubber - producing countries, Thailand's production decreased slightly, Indonesia's decreased slightly, Malaysia's and India's increased slightly, Vietnam's and China's increased slightly. The total production in November 2025 was 1.0515 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons or 1.82% from the previous month [42]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 779,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; the cumulative production was 8.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [45][48]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 10,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.6% [53]. Demand - side Situation - As of January 8, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 65.89%, a decrease of 3.46% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 58.02%, a decrease of 1.53% from the previous week [57]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and a month - on - month increase of 5.1%; the monthly sales were 3.429 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 3.2% [61][64]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 113,246 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 65.38% and a month - on - month increase of 6.64% [70]. - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly production of tire casings was 101.828 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%; the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 51.73 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 8.11% [73][78]. Inventory - side Situation - As of January 9, 2026, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 104,490 tons, an increase of 3,900 tons from the previous week. - As of January 4, 2026, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.232 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons or 2.5%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 815,000 tons, an increase of 3%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 417,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. - As of January 4, 2026, the combined inventory of bonded and general trade natural rubber in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons or 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.8% [88]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: China's natural rubber domestic production area ended its 2025 tapping season, while Southeast Asian main production areas were in the peak tapping season. Due to recent low temperatures in northeastern Thailand and heavy rainfall in southern Thailand, overseas raw material prices remained high. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [89]. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rate of tire enterprises decreased slightly. Currently in the seasonal consumption off - season, enterprises' overall shipment pace was slow, and finished - product inventories increased. In the terminal auto market, although December 2025 passenger car sales decreased year - on - year, the cumulative sales for the year increased slightly. The export volume of Chinese rubber tires from January to November 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. As the weather gets colder, the demand for all - steel tires in the replacement market is expected to weaken [89]. - Inventory side: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise slightly, and China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to rise, with an accelerating inventory - building speed [90]. 后市展望 - The macro - situation has limited impact on natural rubber prices due to the US - Venezuela conflict. The Fed's potential interest - rate cut and other factors affect the macro - sentiment. From the fundamental perspective, the supply side has high - priced overseas raw materials due to weather, the demand side is in a seasonal off - season with some short - term fluctuations in enterprise operating rates, and the inventory is accumulating. Overall, the natural rubber market is in a state of multi - empty game, and the short - term market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Key factors to be followed include macro - sentiment, geopolitical factors, weather in rubber - producing areas, inventory - building, Sino - US trade relations, and terminal demand changes [91][92]. Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - This week's view: It is expected that the natural rubber futures main contract will maintain a range - bound trend in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - sided trading, temporarily observe, and aggressive investors may consider buying on dips; for arbitrage and options, temporarily observe [93][94].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices raises questions about whether it reflects genuine demand in the industry or is driven by speculative capital and potential risks, indicating a distortion of price signals and risk transfer within the lithium battery supply chain [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of January 7, 2026, lithium carbonate futures prices reached 145,000 yuan/ton, with spot market prices also rising sharply, surpassing 120,000 yuan/ton and 130,000 yuan/ton, indicating a continued upward trend since last year [3]. - By December 2025, the capital in the lithium carbonate futures market approached 30 billion yuan, ranking fourth among commodity futures, with speculative funds accounting for 52% of the total, highlighting a market driven more by profit-seeking than risk hedging [5]. - The disparity between futures and spot prices has widened, with futures prices trading at a discount to spot prices, indicating a detachment from the underlying supply-demand fundamentals [5]. Group 2: Supply Chain Insights - Downstream enterprises report that current transactions are primarily driven by essential needs, with no significant stockpiling behavior observed, contrasting sharply with the heated futures market [6]. - The surge in futures prices has led to increased import prices for lithium concentrate, which rose from 617 USD/ton in June 2025 to 1,400 USD/ton by December, a 127% increase, forcing lithium salt manufacturers to pass on costs to downstream products [8]. - The actual global lithium resource situation is not one of scarcity, but rather a structural contradiction in the supply chain, with significant resources concentrated in specific regions, leading to high raw material costs for domestic industries [9]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Predictions - Experts note that while there have been significant changes in the lithium carbonate industry since 2025, the long-term supply-demand balance remains loose, with predictions indicating a slight surplus in 2025 [11]. - Domestic companies are actively expanding production capacity, with new projects being launched, such as a 450,000-ton phosphoric acid lithium project and a 30,000-ton high-purity lithium salt project [12]. - The real issue in the market is not an overall surplus but a structural tension in high-quality battery-grade capacity, with speculation distorting the perception of a general shortage [12]. Group 4: Regulatory Actions and Market Stability - The speculative nature of the market poses significant risks to the health of the industry, leading to distorted business operations and potential over-investment in low-quality capacities [15]. - Regulatory bodies have begun implementing measures to curb excessive speculation, including increasing transaction costs and limiting trading volumes to stabilize the market [15]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has emphasized the need to regulate the lithium battery industry and guide capital back to rationality, ensuring that pricing power remains aligned with fundamental industry conditions [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Unilateral bullish, focus on the positive spread between different contract months, and consider a hedging strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [5] - PTA: Unilateral bullish, go long on PX and short on PTA [6] - MEG: Unilateral short - term bullish rebound, exit short positions and consider a positive spread between May and September contracts when the price is low [7] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of PX, PTA, and MEG, considering factors such as supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment. It believes that although the fundamentals of these products may face challenges in the future, short - term price trends are still affected by various factors and show a relatively strong performance [5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures contracts increased to varying degrees yesterday, with the largest increase of 3.96% in SC. The price spreads of different contract months also changed, with PX5 - 9 and PTA5 - 9 rising, and MEG5 - 9 falling [2] - **Spot**: PX CFR China, MEG spot, and Dated Brent prices increased, while PTA East China price decreased. The spreads between PX and naphtha, and short - fiber processing fees decreased, while PTA processing fees and bottle - chip processing fees increased [2] Market Dynamics - On January 9, during the Asian trading session, crude oil prices strengthened due to concerns about potential supply disruptions in Iran. However, the increase in foreign currency prices was not as strong as that of other commodities [3] - Chinese downstream polyester production slowed down earlier than expected due to poor sales and lower profit margins. The buying interest in PX cargoes arriving in February was still weak, and demand was expected to be weak during the Chinese New Year holiday in February [3] - Outside China, the situation of cargo accumulation was not as severe, with only a small amount of unsold February PX cargoes among some South Korean manufacturers [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [5] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Although the fundamentals are expected to weaken in the future, with increasing supply and high processing fees, cost support from oil prices and positive macro - market sentiment keep the short - term trend strong. Consider a positive spread between different contract months and a hedging strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA when PTA processing fees rise above 400 yuan/ton [5] - **PTA**: Future supply and demand are expected to be weak, with PTA device operation rate stable and downstream demand decreasing. However, due to the current high polyester operation rate and low PTA inventory, the short - term price trend is still strong. Pay attention to positions for narrowing the processing fee [6] - **MEG**: The current low price is due to the reduced efficiency of the intermediate trading link, which is expected to improve. Although demand will decline, supply pressure will also be relieved, and the price has strong support at 3600 yuan/ton. Exit short positions and consider a positive spread between May and September contracts when the price is low [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided on the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides short - term and medium - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc., taking into account factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and geopolitical situation [7][8][9]. - For different futures, specific trading strategies are recommended, such as paying attention to calendar spread positive arbitrage, hedging strategies, and adjusting positions according to market trends [7][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PX, PTA, MEG) - **PX**: It is in a unilateral high - level shock market. Fundamentally, it is expected to gradually weaken, but short - term support comes from cost and capital. It is recommended to pay attention to calendar spread positive arbitrage and the hedge strategy of going long PX and short PTA [7]. - **PTA**: It has strong cost support. Although the future demand is expected to decline, the current low - inventory de - stocking situation makes the unilateral price still tend to be strong. Attention should be paid to the position of narrowing processing margins [8]. - **MEG**: It shows a short - term strong rebound. With the improvement of the turnover efficiency of the intermediate trading link and the reduction of supply pressure, it is recommended to close short positions and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive arbitrage [9]. 2. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range shock. The cost of raw materials for semi - steel tires has increased, and the profit has decreased. The demand outlook is unclear, and price competition is expected to continue [10][14][15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a high - level shock. The short - term market is supported by the rise of international energy prices, and the fundamentals of butadiene are neutral, with synthetic rubber mainly following the cost side [16][18]. 3. Polyolefins (LLDPE, PP) - **LLDPE**: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit is significantly repaired. The raw material price is stable, but there is still supply - demand pressure in the medium term [19][20]. - **PP**: Propylene is stronger than ethylene. There is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter. The cost is high, and the demand is weak, so attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [22][23]. 4. Other Chemicals (Caustic Soda, Pulp, Glass, etc.) - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a weak shock. The valuation may be too high, and it is in a pattern of high production and high inventory. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large [26]. - **Pulp**: It is in a wide - range shock. The price has increased, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved substantially. The price of household paper is expected to fluctuate within a range [31][32][33]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The spot price is stable with minor fluctuations, and the overall market is in a neutral state [35][36]. 5. Energy - related Futures (Methanol, Urea, etc.) - **Methanol**: It is short - term strong. Supported by geopolitical factors and the expectation of inventory improvement, but there is a negative feedback risk from MTO above 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [42]. - **Urea**: It has a short - term correction and is medium - term strong. The agricultural demand expectation is strong, and the callback range is limited [46]. 6. Other Futures (Styrene, Soda Ash, etc.) - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term shock. The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting at high levels [48]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The supply is high, and the demand is tepid, with a neutral market [52]. 7. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight. Attention should be paid to the realization of downward driving factors [55]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong [56]. 8. PVC - It is in a weak shock. The market is in a pattern of high production and high inventory, and the large - scale production reduction expectation may occur after the 03 contract [64]. 9. Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has a sharp short - term weakening, but there is still support below [67]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session continues to rise, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continues to rebound [67]. 10. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It may have a short - term strong shock. For the 02 and 04 contracts, positions should be reduced as appropriate. The 2602 contract valuation may be in the range of 1730 - 1780 points under a certain freight rate deduction, and the 2604 contract is in a weak supply - demand balance in the off - season [69][82]. 11. Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - **Short - fiber**: It is in a shock - upward trend. The futures are in general shock, and the average sales - to - production ratio is 72% [85]. - **Bottle - chip**: It is in a shock - upward trend. The upstream raw material futures are in shock, and the factory quotes are mostly stable with partial downward adjustments [86]. 12. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to short at high levels. The market price is stable, the production end is basically stable, and the downstream demand is rigid [88][89][91]. 13. Pure Benzene - It is in a short - term shock. The port inventory has increased, and the spot price has a slight change [93][94][95].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly preview of key events and data releases that could impact the futures market, including economic data from China and the US, agricultural reports, and central bank publications [2][3]. - It also presents expected values for various economic indicators and analyzes how different data outcomes might affect different types of futures prices [3][8]. Key Events and Data Releases January 12 - China's central bank will release December 2025 financial statistics, with expected social financing scale increment of 1950 billion yuan, social financing scale stock growth of 8.2%, new RMB loans of 750 billion yuan, and M2 growth of 7.9% [3]. - China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will publish the monthly report on the supply - demand situation of agricultural products [4]. January 13 - The US Department of Agriculture will release the monthly crop supply - demand report and quarterly grain inventory report [5][6]. - The US Labor Department will announce the December 2025 CPI, with expected unadjusted CPI annual rate of 2.7%, unadjusted core CPI annual rate of 2.7%, core CPI monthly rate of 0.3% after seasonal adjustment, and CPI monthly rate of 0.3% after seasonal adjustment [8]. - The US Commerce Department will disclose the October 2025 new home sales, with an expected annualized total of 705,000 units [9]. January 14 - The US Energy Information Administration will issue the monthly short - term energy outlook report [10]. - China will hold a press conference to introduce the 2025 annual and December import - export situation, with expected December export growth of 2.9% and import growth of 0.8% in US dollars [12]. - OPEC will publish the monthly crude oil market report [13]. - The US Commerce Department will announce December 2025 retail sales, with expected monthly rates of 0.4% for retail sales and core retail sales [14]. - The US Labor Department will release December 2025 PPI, with expected monthly rate of 0.2% and annual rate of 2.6% [15]. - The US National Association of Realtors will disclose December 2025 existing home sales, with an expected annualized total of 4.22 million units [16]. - The US Energy Information Administration will announce the EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending January 9, with the previous value being a decrease of 3.832 million barrels [17]. January 15 - The Federal Reserve will publish the economic situation Beige Book [18]. - The US Labor Department will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, with an expected value of 210,000 [19]. January 16 - The Federal Reserve will release December 2025 industrial output, with an expected monthly rate of 0.2% [20].

Core Viewpoint - The 20th anniversary of Dalian Commodity Exchange's soybean oil futures marks its evolution into a cornerstone of China's oilseed market, reflecting the country's economic growth and the maturation of its futures market, while also enhancing risk management and price discovery functions [1] Group 1: Development and Achievements - Since its launch in 2006, soybean oil futures have grown significantly, with average daily trading volume increasing from 43,100 contracts to 445,000 contracts by 2025, and average open interest rising from 24,200 contracts to 844,400 contracts [4] - By the end of 2025, there are 33 delivery warehouses for soybean oil futures across seven provinces, ensuring ample delivery capacity and supporting industry participation in the futures market [4] - Over 90% of large and medium-sized soybean crushing enterprises in China utilize soybean oil futures for hedging, with the futures price becoming a key pricing benchmark for domestic soybean oil trade [4] Group 2: Market Adaptation and Risk Management - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has implemented various measures to ensure soybean oil futures remain closely aligned with the physical market, including expanding delivery regions and optimizing delivery standards based on raw material quality changes [2][3] - The introduction of dynamic premium and discount systems and the establishment of delivery warehouses in key production areas have enhanced the flexibility and efficiency of the delivery process [2][3] - Companies like Jianghai Grain and Oil Group have effectively utilized futures for risk management, demonstrating the integration of futures into their operational strategies to stabilize profits and manage price volatility [8][9] Group 3: Industry Transformation and Global Impact - The soybean oil industry has transitioned from reliance on foreign oil to a competitive landscape dominated by state-owned, private, and foreign enterprises, driven by the need for price risk management [5][6] - By 2025, China is projected to produce approximately 18.71 million tons of soybean oil, accounting for about 30% of global production and consumption, establishing itself as the largest producer and consumer [6] - The opening of the soybean oil futures market to foreign investors and the introduction of related contracts in international markets have enhanced China's pricing influence in global oilseed trade [14][15] Group 4: Future Directions and Strategic Importance - The development of soybean oil futures serves as a model for the broader Chinese futures market, emphasizing the importance of being rooted in the physical industry and driven by genuine risk management needs [16][17] - The collaborative efforts of regulatory bodies, exchanges, and industry participants have been crucial in nurturing a mature market that effectively serves the entire supply chain [17] - As the market evolves, companies are encouraged to enhance their risk management capabilities and leverage futures and options to navigate increasing market complexities and competition [18]