工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 2 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 点评 12 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 8335/吨，日内跌幅 0.42%，持仓 减仓 652 手至 30.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9458 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水扩至 515 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 49015 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.44%，持 仓减仓 611 手至 37702 手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格跌至 53250 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 53250 元/吨，现货升水收至 4235 元/吨。 云南厂家进入节前最后一批订单交付期，本周将陆续全面减产，新疆延 续减产缩量。当前期限商仍在积极出货，下游备货进入尾声，节前暂无 推涨动力。节前晶硅市场新单停滞，硅片进入一单一议模式，仅组件贸 易商因资金压力降价出货外，其他环节在成交僵持中暂时企稳。节前围 绕资金回笼逻辑，晶硅盘面延续弱势，市场矛盾转向节后预期信心的博 弈。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 二、日度数 ...

2026 年 02 月 13 日 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 短纤：短期震荡市，多单逢高减仓 20260213 瓶片：短期震荡市，多单逢高减仓 20260213 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2603 | 6554 | ୧୧୫୫ | -34 | PF03-04 | -68 | -66 | -2 | | PF | 短纤2604 | 6622 | 6654 | -32 | PF04-05 | 6 | 28 | -22 | | | 短纤2605 | 6616 | 6626 | -10 | PF主力基差 | -32 | -64 | 32 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 153547 | 137024 | 16523 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the spot market for imported pulp has a weak trading atmosphere, showing characteristics of shrinking volume and stable prices. The average weekly prices of various types of pulp have slightly decreased, with the demand from downstream paper mills limited and the market in a state of digesting previous orders. Port inventories continue to accumulate slightly, suppressing pulp price fluctuations [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - In the futures market, for the pulp main contract (05 contract), the daily - closing price increased by 2 yuan/ton to 5,238 yuan/ton, the night - closing price increased by 2 yuan/ton to 5,254 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 4,600 hands to 152,334 hands, the open interest decreased by 20,879 hands to 280,912 hands, the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 4,988 tons to 151,415 tons, and the net position of the top 20 members increased by 1,679 hands to - 17,850 hands. In terms of spread data, the basis of Silver Star - futures main dropped by 2, the basis of Goldfish - futures main (non - standard) dropped by 2, and the monthly spread of SP03 - SP05 dropped by 2. In the spot market, the domestic prices of various pulp brands are as follows: Northwood and Cariboo are 5,450 yuan/ton, Moon is 5,150 yuan/ton, Silver Star is 5,250 yuan/ton, Russian needles are 5,050 yuan/ton, eucalyptus pulp such as Huimu and Star is around 4,580 yuan/ton, and Kunhe chemical mechanical pulp is 3,800 yuan/ton, Jinxing natural color pulp is 4,900 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Industry News - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the trading atmosphere in the imported pulp spot market weakens. The average spot prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural color pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp this week are 5,246 yuan/ton, 4,564 yuan/ton, 4,921 yuan/ton, and 3,800 yuan/ton respectively, with the first three showing decreases of 1.6%, 0.8%, and 0.6% compared to the previous period, while the chemical mechanical pulp remains the same. The reasons for pulp price fluctuations are the slowdown of downstream paper mill operations, the completion of raw material replenishment, the concentration of coniferous pulp trading in the futures - cash arbitrage link, and the accumulation of port inventories [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content, so it is skipped. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US dollar rose and then fell after the US January non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations but was lower than expected for the whole of 2025. The rubber futures price followed the rebound of commodities this week. Before the Spring Festival holiday, capital adjustment led to wide - range market fluctuations. The data showed economic weakness, and the market's interest - rate cut expectation rebounded [3]. - Overseas rubber - producing areas entered the seasonal production - reduction season, with strong willingness of factories to purchase at higher prices, and raw material prices continued to rise, providing strong cost - side support. The raw material supply was relatively tight during the transition to the off - season, and the purchase price increased significantly [3]. - As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory increased, and the inventory in Qingdao increased due to the arrival volume. In the future, the rainfall in the Southeast Asian main rubber - producing areas will decrease, and the impact on rubber tapping will weaken [3]. - In February before the Spring Festival, the commodity market fluctuated significantly. Currently, the supply of rubber in the producing areas is stable, and raw material prices are stable with a slight upward trend. The downstream is in the seasonal off - season, with weak terminal demand and sufficient supply, and the finished - product inventory is increasing. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern is expected to gradually improve as the output peaks [3]. - The industrial products have been adjusted, and it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for rubber trading. Avoid chasing high prices at high levels. The support and pressure levels for the RU and NR main contracts are given [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Rubber Variety Viewpoint Summary - **Rubber**: The recommended strategy is to go long on dips. The main logic is that the domestic spot inventory has been slightly increasing, overseas supply has no obvious fluctuations, the spot price is firm, and the macro - sentiment boosts the commodity market. The support range is 15500 - 15800, the pressure range is 16300 - 16500, and the market is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **20 - grade rubber**: The recommended strategy is also to go long on dips. The dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory turning point, the Thai glue price is firm, the output declined in the fourth quarter, and there is still support below. The support range is 12700 - 12800, the pressure range is 13420 - 13805, and the market is expected to recover from the bottom [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber Main - continuous | 16450 | - 0.51 | - 85 | 180678 | 152702 | | 20 - grade Rubber Main - continuous | 13370 | - 0.26 | - 35 | 46594 | 50704 | | Singapore TSR20 Main - continuous | 193 | 0.73 | 1 | 16 | 19281 | [9] 3.2.2 Futures Market Warehouse Receipt Situation - The latest warehouse receipt volume of 20 - grade rubber is 50803, with a year - on - year change of - 21.50%. The warehouse receipt has rebounded from a low level recently, and the market's inventory - accumulation expectation has resurfaced. - The latest warehouse receipt volume of rubber is 112570, with a year - on - year change of - 38.86%. The warehouse receipt was significantly cancelled again today, and the futures inventory decreased sharply year - on - year. The delivery risk of futures contracts increased, which supported the RU futures price [13]. 3.3 Spot Market Trends | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Natural Rubber (Yuan/ton) | 16442 | - 109 | - 398 | | Yunnan Glue (Yuan/ton) | 14200 | 0 | - 1800 | | Thai Hat Yai Glue (Thai Baht/kg) | 61 | 1 | - 5 | | Thai Hat Yai Cup Lumps (Thai Baht/kg) | 55 | 1 | - 5 | | Thai 20 - grade Standard Rubber in Qingdao Bonded Area (US dollars/ton) | 2000 | 35 | - 50 | [18] 3.4 Basis and Spread Situation | Futures | Spread Type | Current Value | Month - on - Month | Year - on - Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU Main - contract Basis | Basis | - 133 | - 23 | 412 | | NR Main - contract Basis | Basis | 1755 | - 15 | 45 | | Thai Mixed - RU | Non - standard Basis | - 1320 | - 185 | - 550 | | SVR3L - RU | Non - standard Basis | 175 | - 40 | 260 | | RU - NR | Cross - variety Spread | 3080 | - 50 | 350 | | Whole Milk - Thai Mixed | Light - and Dark - colored Rubber Spread | 995 | 145 | 535 | [23] 3.5 Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 5 - 9 | 95 | 5 | 235 | Range - bound | Wait and see | | 20 - grade Rubber | 3 - 4 | - 75 | - 20 | - 215 | Range - bound | Wait and see | [25] 3.6 Industry Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation - There is no specific text summary in the provided content, but relevant data can be found in the figures such as ANRPC member countries' overall supply - demand situation, natural and synthetic rubber import volume year - on - year, China's automobile production year - on - year, tire production start - up rate, tire inventory days, and natural rubber inventory [29][30]. 3.7 Option - related Data - There is no specific text summary in the provided content, but relevant data can be found in the figures such as the trading and holding situation of natural rubber options, the put - call ratio, historical volatility, and implied volatility [33].

2026年02月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：区间震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 13 日 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -0.5 | -0.07% | | | I2605 | | 762.0 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 497,918 | -9,039 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | 前日价格（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Multiple energy - chemical products are in different market trends. Some are in shock operation, some are showing price increases or decreases, and some are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and geopolitical situations [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rubber - **Market Trend**: Oscillating [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: Overseas supply in Vietnam is tightening, and Thailand is in the seasonal production - reduction cycle. Downstream tire enterprise capacity utilization has decreased significantly, and demand is weak. Qingdao inventory is high and shows a seasonal accumulation trend [4][7][8] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trend**: Oscillating before the festival [2][9] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions have all decreased. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has increased, and the inventory of butadiene in East China ports has decreased [9][10] LLDPE - **Market Trend**: Northeast Asian ethylene bottoms out, and it is in a shock market due to pre - festival capital risk - aversion [2][12] - **Fundamentals**: Crude oil prices fall and stabilize, ethylene monomer is weak, downstream demand is weakening, and the supply - side inventory transfer before the Spring Festival leads to a temporary lack of fundamental contradictions [12][13] PP - **Market Trend**: C3 raw materials are strong, and valuation repair is limited [2][15] - **Fundamentals**: Cost - side crude oil and propane prices are strong, supply - side new production before the 2605 contract is limited, and demand - side downstream new orders are mainly for rigid needs [15][16] Caustic Soda - **Market Trend**: Stronger shock due to cost increase [2][18] - **Fundamentals**: The short - term strength of liquid chlorine may not be sustainable, leading to an increase in caustic soda costs. Demand is weak, and there are expectations of production reduction and load reduction in March [20] Pulp - **Market Trend**: Oscillating [2][23] - **Fundamentals**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the trading volume of imported pulp spot market decreases, and prices are stable. Downstream paper mills' raw material replenishment is basically completed, and port inventory is accumulating [26][27] Glass - **Market Trend**: The original sheet price is stable [2][28] - **Fundamentals**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream's procurement volume of the original sheet decreases, and the float glass factory has no motivation to adjust prices. Market demand declines, and trading is light [29] Methanol - **Market Trend**: Oscillating [2][31] - **Fundamentals**: The port methanol market fluctuates narrowly, and the inventory accumulates slightly. The inland price rises slightly. The overall fundamental driving force is neutral to downward, and there is cost support at the bottom [34][35] Urea - **Market Trend**: The price center moves up [2][37] - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreases slightly. Before the festival, there is support from spot transactions and strong expectations of agricultural spring plowing demand [39][40] Styrene - **Market Trend**: High - level shock [2][42] - **Fundamentals**: Capital withdraws, and the absolute price is in a high - level shock. Styrene profits are at a high level in recent years, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices after the festival [42] Soda Ash - **Market Trend**: The spot market has little change [2][43] - **Fundamentals**: The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with stable enterprise device operation, high - level supply, and weak downstream demand after pre - festival stocking [44] LPG - **Market Trend**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward [2][47] - **Fundamentals**: There are geopolitical disturbances, and the trading volume, position, and price of futures contracts show different changes. The operating rates of some industrial chains change [48] Propylene - **Market Trend**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the spot price is stable [2][48] - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume, position, and price of futures contracts change, and the operating rates of related industrial chains are stable [48] PVC - **Market Trend**: Weak shock [2][60] - **Fundamentals**: The commodity market sentiment weakens, PVC supply and demand are weak, exports decline, and inventory accumulates. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [59][60] Fuel Oil - **Market Trend**: Narrow - range adjustment, short - term stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil [2][62] - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts change, and the spot prices in different regions also change [62] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Trend**: Weakens at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [2][62] - **Fundamentals**: Similar to fuel oil, with changes in futures and spot prices [62] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Trend**: Shock market, hold a light position during the festival [2][64] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decline, spot freight rates are stable before the festival. Geopolitical factors have little impact on the European line. The 2604 contract has a weak supply - demand balance, and the 2606 contract has uncertainties in the resumption of navigation rhythm [64][73] Short - Fiber - **Market Trend**: Short - term shock market, reduce long positions when the price is high [2][76] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decline, spot prices are stable, downstream demand is weak, and the production - sales rate decreases [76] Bottle Chip - **Market Trend**: Short - term shock market, reduce long positions when the price is high [2][76] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decline, upstream raw materials fluctuate and fall, and the market trading atmosphere is light [76][77] Offset Printing Paper - **Market Trend**: Wait and see before the festival [2][79] - **Fundamentals**: Spot prices in Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, paper enterprises' production and sales are general, and downstream demand is weak [79][80][82] Pure Benzene - **Market Trend**: Stronger shock [2][83] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices decline slightly, port inventory decreases slightly, and spot prices rise slightly [83][84][85]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom, and the monthly spread is in a reverse arbitrage. The geopolitical disturbance risk during the Spring Festival still exists, and the PX valuation is upward - revised. The fundamentals weaken in February, but the unilateral price is supported and runs relatively strongly. Investors should pay attention to position management [5]. - The downside space of PTA may be limited, and the monthly spread is bearish. Short PTA when the processing fee is above 450. The terminal demand has different situations in domestic and foreign markets. The polyester start - up rate is expected to be 80.5% in February and recover to 91% in March. The current polyester inventory is moderately low, and the post - holiday pressure is less than in previous years. Multiple PTA device maintenance plans boost the monthly spread. Unilateral attention should be paid to the support at 5100 yuan/ton. Investors should pay attention to position management [6]. - The inventory of MEG continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still large. Conduct reverse arbitrage operations on the basis spread and monthly spread. The ethylene glycol start - up rate remains stable, but due to the large - scale shutdown of polyester on the demand side, the inventory accumulation pressure in February is large, and it is difficult to digest the inventory after the festival. The basis spread and monthly spread trends are still weak. Investors should pay attention to position management [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC yesterday were 7312, 5220, 3723, 6622, and 476.8 respectively. The price changes were - 66, - 40, - 41, - 32, and 0, with price change rates of - 0.89%, - 0.76%, - 1.09%, - 0.48%, and 0.00% respectively. The monthly spreads of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 had price changes of 4, - 2, 3, - 2, and - 1.3 respectively [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent yesterday were 910.33 dollars/ton, 5200 yuan/ton, 3630 yuan/ton, 612.12 dollars/ton, and 70.88 dollars/barrel respectively. The price changes were - 7, 20, - 33, - 5, and - 2.25 respectively [2]. Spot Processing Fees - The spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread yesterday were 294.05, 378.86, 71.28, 294.17, and - 4.34 respectively. The price changes were 5.96, - 49.15, 29.19, 70.13, and 0 respectively [2]. Fundamental Data - For PX, a March Asian spot was traded at 909, and an April Asian spot was traded at 910. The PX valuation was 910 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars [3]. - For PTA, the 250 - ton PTA device of Dushan Energy was shut down, and the PTA load on Thursday was 74.8% [3]. - For MEG, as of February 12, the overall ethylene glycol start - up load in the Chinese mainland was 76.81% (a 0.58% increase from the previous period), and the start - up load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 78.59% (a 1.82% increase from the previous period) [3]. - For polyester, a 50 - ton bottle - chip device was restarted, and 5 new polyester factories carried out device maintenance, mainly involving short - fiber and chips. The comprehensive polyester load continued to decline. As of Thursday, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland was around 77.7%. The start - up load of large - scale polyester industrial yarn manufacturers mostly remained stable, with a slight reduction in some areas, so the overall start - up load decreased slightly. As of now, the overall theoretical start - up load of domestic polyester industrial yarn is about 64% (since January 2026, the production capacity base of polyester industrial yarn is 328.6 tons) [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-13 节前需求回落，盘⾯表现承压 假期临近钢材端累库加快，基本⾯缺乏亮点，盘⾯表现疲软。铁矿⽯ 总库存压⼒持续增加，当前市场对节后需求预期⼀般，盘⾯表现承 压。煤炭供应端存在扰动，煤矿节前放假增多，但煤焦补库进⼊尾 声，需求⽀撑有限，盘⾯低位宽幅震荡。玻纯供需过剩压制盘⾯价 格。 假期临近钢材端累库加快，基本面缺乏亮点，盘面表现疲软。铁矿石 总库存压力持续增加，当前市场对节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承 压。煤炭供应端存在扰动，煤矿节前放假增多，但煤焦补库进入尾 声，需求支撑有限，盘面低位宽幅震荡。玻纯供需过剩压制盘面价 格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿石库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预 期，当前市场对节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承压，但节后即将召开 重要会议，宏观预期仍存，盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，关注市场 情绪变化。废钢供应、日耗均有季节性下降的预期，钢厂补库基本结 束，预计节前现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应后续增长空间有限，而下游钢厂复产预期 仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有 ...

Group 1: Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose from 3,938 yuan/ton to 3,975 yuan/ton, a 0.94% increase The basis (spot price - futures price) widened from -318 yuan/ton to -325 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper futures premium [2][34] - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract increased significantly by 31.39%, from 207,474 lots to 272,604 lots, while the open interest decreased by 2.55%, from 439,988 lots to 428,779 lots [2][35] Group 2: Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate dropped 3.17 percentage points to 61.71%, mainly due to a 4.99 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based operating rate to 63.4%, while the coal - based operating rate remained stable at 52.53% Profits from various production processes generally deteriorated, with oil - based production profits dropping significantly, indicating increased raw material cost pressure and a greater risk of supply contraction [2][38] - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained stable at 63.43%, showing that overall demand had no significant change, indicating some resilience in terminal consumption but a lack of growth momentum [3][39] - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased 4.24% to 935,000 tons, while the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased slightly by 0.88% to 450,000 tons The overall inventory accumulation highlighted the pressure of oversupply, with more arrivals at the ports and insufficient demand digestion [3][39] Group 3: Price Trend Judgment The ethylene glycol price may face medium - term downward pressure The short - term rise in futures prices is driven by market sentiment and active trading, and the decline in the supply - side operating rate and profit deterioration may continue to support high prices However, continuous inventory accumulation, lack of demand growth, and deep losses in cost - side profits will limit the upside space If inventory reduction is less than expected or cost pressure intensifies, prices may turn weak for adjustment [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Oil - based LLDPE cost increased by 2.46% to 7,551 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 133 yuan/ton to - 695 yuan/ton; coal - based LLDPE cost increased by 0.26% to 6,512 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 51 yuan/ton to 314 yuan/ton [2] - As downstream enterprises gradually took holidays and stopped work, the decline in the downstream operating rate of PE widened this week, with the operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film both maintaining a downward trend [2] - Factory and social inventories entered the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage, and the inventory pressure was not large [2] - Concerns about the US - Iran situation in the market offset the negative impact of the unexpected increase in EIA inventory, and international oil prices closed slightly higher yesterday [2] - As the Spring Festival holiday approached, the spot trading atmosphere of PE weakened, and the futures trading volume shrank. Attention should be paid to the scale of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the inventory removal rhythm after the festival. The daily K - line of L2605 should focus on the support around 6,680 and the pressure around 6,830 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of polyethylene was 6,734 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 6,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 6,734 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 6,781 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 258,012 lots, a decrease of 20,327 lots; the open interest was 501,315 lots, a decrease of 2,602 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was 66, a decrease of 1; the 5 - 9 spread was - 47, an increase of 2; the 9 - 1 spread was - 19, a decrease of 1 [2] - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions of polyethylene was 518,077 lots, a decrease of 103 lots; the sell order volume was 548,892 lots, an increase of 1,592 lots; the net buy order volume was - 30,815 lots, a decrease of 1,695 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,663.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43 yuan; the average price in East China was 6,750.47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.93 yuan [2] - The basis was - 70.09, an increase of 52.56 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB intermediate price of naphtha in the Singapore region was 66.97 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.89 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region was 617.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.75 US dollars [2] - The CFR intermediate price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 676 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR intermediate price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 696 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 85.91%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 38.82%, a decrease of 3.25 percentage points; the operating rate of polyethylene (PE) pipes was 23.67%, a decrease of 4.16 percentage points; the operating rate of polyethylene (PE) agricultural film was 30.18%, a decrease of 4.38 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 17.68%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.02%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of polyethylene was 15.16%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.16%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From February 6th to 12th, the total polyethylene output in China was 723,900 tons, a 1.61% increase from last week [2] - From January 30th to February 5th, the average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products in China decreased by 4.0% compared with the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 4.4% compared with the previous period, and the operating rate of PE packaging film decreased by 3.3% compared with the previous period [2] - As of February 4th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 379,700 tons, a 17.55% increase from last week; as of February 6th, the social inventory of PE was 507,800 tons, a 4.70% increase from last week [2] - From January 31st to February 6th, L2605 fluctuated weakly and finally closed at 6,734 yuan/ton. This week, the plants of Shanghai Petrochemical and Qilu Petrochemical stopped production, but the impact days were limited. Plants such as Guangdong Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical restarted, and the PE output increased month - on - month [2]