【#日经指数一度暴跌900点# 市场普遍认为#美联储9月降息或成定局#】由于美国7月非农就业数据远低 于预期，市场预期美国经济增长势头减弱，避险情绪升温。今早（4日）日经225指数盘中一度下跌超过 900点，跌破4万点整数关口。东证主板市场上约九成的股票下跌，呈现全面抛售的行情。另一方面，美 国非农就业数据及美联储理事将辞职的消息公布后，日元对美元汇率明显上升。市场普遍认为，美联储 9月降息几乎已成定局，未来将关注美联储降息的节奏，包括9月是会降息25个基点还是50个基点，以及 10月是否会继续降息等。 来源：@央视财经微博 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Views - Overnight, the annual rate of the US core PCE in June rebounded to 2.8%, slightly higher than expected, and the monthly rate of 0.3% met expectations. The weekly initial jobless claims remained at a low level of 218,000. With recent geopolitical risks stable, tariff negotiations becoming clearer, and the risk of economic recession decreasing, the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment suppresses the performance of precious metals, and the volatile adjustment may continue. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that rate cuts will depend on data, and attention is focused on the US non - farm payrolls guidance tonight [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Tariff News - US President Trump signed an executive order on Thursday night to impose tariffs ranging from 15% to 41% on goods exported to the US from 67 trading partners, raising the tariff level to the highest in more than a century. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7 instead of August 1, providing a window for countries to negotiate for lower tariffs. The White House hopes to reach more agreements with countries before August 7 [2] - The US Treasury Secretary is frustrated with India. The tariff rate for Malaysian goods will be announced soon. India hopes to sign free - trade agreements with several countries. The US - Mexico tariff agreement will be extended by 90 days, and Mexico will continue to pay 25% fentanyl tariffs, 25% auto tariffs, and 50% steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs. Trump excluded 45% of Brazil's exports to the US from the 50% tariff [2] Gold Demand Report - In the second quarter of 2025, the total global gold demand (including over - the - counter transactions) reached 1,249 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In value terms, the total global gold demand soared by 45% year - on - year to a new record of $132 billion. Gold ETF investment was the key driver, with an inflow of 170 tons in Q2, compared with a small outflow in Q2 2024. The total global gold ETF demand in the first half of the year reached 397 tons, the highest since 2020 [2] - The total investment in gold bars and coins in Q2 also increased by 11% year - on - year to 307 tons. Chinese investors led the world, with a 44% year - on - year surge in demand for gold bars and coins to 115 tons. Indian investors continued to increase their holdings, with a demand of 46 tons in Q2. The Western market showed a differentiated trend: the net investment demand in Europe more than doubled to 28 tons in Q2, while the demand for gold bars and coins in the US halved to 9 tons [2] - Global central banks continued to buy gold, but the pace slowed down. They added 166 tons in Q2 2025. Despite the slowdown in the purchase growth rate, global central bank gold purchases remained at a significantly high level. 95% of surveyed central banks expect global central bank gold reserves to further increase in the next 12 months [2] - Gold jewelry demand continued to shrink, with consumption volume decreasing by 14% year - on - year in Q2, approaching the low level during the 2020 pandemic. The demand for gold jewelry in China and India decreased by 20% and 17% year - on - year respectively. However, in value terms, global gold jewelry consumption still rose to $3.6 billion in Q2 [2]

尽管数据调整存在一定的偏差是可以理解的，但如此大规模且连续的修正却令人感到震惊。除去川普解 雇劳工统计局局长的消息，其他事件也在推动避险情绪的上升。美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒宣布因 个人原因辞职，这为美联储留下了一个具有永久投票权的理事职位空缺。库格勒在辞职前公开表示，她 不同意短期降息的提议，认为应当维持当前的利率以避免通胀风险上升。她的辞职使得川普有机会填补 这一空缺，这将让美联储理事会的组成更加倾向于支持降息。川普有可能任命第三位明确支持降息的理 事，这将加剧美联储内部的分化，尤其是在当前就业数据的风波后，许多美联储官员可能会为了迎合川 普的政策而转向支持降息。 稍晚些时候，川普透露，他一直对就业数据的准确性表示怀疑，并且他已经有了几位候选人来接任劳工 统计局局长一职。白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗也公开表态，称自己早已不再相信劳工统计局的数据。他强调， 川普政府需要准确的经济数据，但目前看到的数字并不让人信服，只有更准确的数据，才能帮助美联储 做出更加明智的决策。 从SSIC的观察来看，川普解雇劳工统计局局长后，市场的避险情绪再度升温。在非农数据发布后的短 暂整理后，金价再次飙升，收盘时上涨超过70美元，标志着 ...

8月4日，A股走势分化，军工、银行、有色等板块走强。其中，有色50ETF（159652）震荡上行，截至10:29，涨1.05%。资金跑步进场，有色50ETF （159652）盘中再获资金净申购！ | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 历?交警负 | 估自权重 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601899 | 紫金矿业 | 植物理研 | 3.12% | 18.8717. | 14.54% | | 2 | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 有色金属 | 0.08% | 28.34 Z | 6.79% | | 3 | 603993 | 洛阳領ル | 有色金属 | 0.33% | 6.69 Z | 4.66% | | 4 | 603799 | 华友钻 V | 有色会居 | -0.88% | 6.47 亿 | 4.46% | | ਦ | 601600 | 中国铝业 | 有色全居 | -0.41% | 2.80 Z | 4.32% | | 6 | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 有色全居 | 4.41% | 14.13 Z ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：非农就业数据远不如预期，降息预期迅速升温，金价大幅回升；美国三 大股指全线收跌，欧洲主要股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率收盘集体下跌，10年期 跌14.62个基点报4.220%；美元指数跌1.38%报98.68，离岸人民币对美元升值报 7.1929；COMEX黄金期货涨2.01%报3416美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货770.72，现货766.88，基差-3.84，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单35745千克，增加102千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方；偏空 ...

非农人数低于预期，上周五美股大幅下挫！连续回调的港股三大指数再度低开，恒指跌0.31%，国指跌 0.35%，恒生科技指数跌0.66%。盘面上，大型科技股涨跌不一，快手、阿里巴巴跌超1%，京东、百度 小幅下跌，腾讯、网易飘红；特朗普要求降低药品价格上周五美股医药股大跌，连续上涨的港股生物医 药股多数回调，复宏汉霖跌近4%，泰格医药、药明康德、信达生物、诺诚健华均有跌幅；汽车股持续 走低，比亚迪股份跌近3%，内险股、钢铁股、电力股、苹果概念股多数走低。另一方面，避险情绪升 温，黄金股集体上涨，灵宝黄金、招金矿业涨超3%，海运股、中医药股、茶饮料概念股多数上涨，德 翔海运涨超6%，茶百道涨超1%。(格隆汇) ...

受上周五美国经济数据疲弱引发的美债价格上涨影响，日本国债在东京早盘交易中强势走高。三菱日联 摩根士丹利 证券固收策略师表示，今日日本国债市场料将以买盘主导。股市走弱与日元升值的组合正 引发避险情绪，进一步支撑了国内债券的买入情绪。据Quick数据显示，5年期和10年期日本国债收益率 双双创下自7月8日以来的最低水平。 ...

美国非农数据大幅下滑，最新公布的7月新增非农就业录得7.3万人，不及预期的11万人。此外5月和6月 新增非农就业人数合计下修25.8万人，市场对9月降息预期从40%涨至82%。机构认为，回顾2024年，10 月非农意外疲软推动美联储在11月开启降息，相似情形或重现；政策方面，美对等关税引发通胀压力， 白宫实施刺激政策以拉动市场的诉求或将延续至2026年中期选举。在全球贸易博弈持续且地缘政治长期 紧张的背景下，黄金的配置价值更加凸显，机构看好中长期黄金上行空间。 受美国关税政策调整及7月就业数据远逊于预期影响，黄金价格再次飙升并逼近前期高点。8月1日，伦 敦金现货收报3362.64美元/盎司，上涨2.22%；COMEX黄金期货收涨2.01%，报3416美元/盎司。境内实 物黄金价格普遍上涨，中国黄金集团基础金价报781元/克，上涨1.98%，品牌黄金中，老庙价格最高， 报1010元/克，菜百价格最低，报982元/克。SPDRGoldTrust8月1日持仓量较上一交易日减少1.43吨。 ...

当华盛顿试图维持"强劲复苏"的幻象时，劳工部冷冰冰的就业数据一记重拳击中市场的肋骨：7月非农就业仅增7.3万个，远低于预期，连带5月和6月也被大 幅下修，合计减少25.8万个岗位。这不是一次偶然的统计偏差，而是美国劳动力市场"硬着陆"信号的正式释放。就在鲍威尔还试图用"就业依旧稳健"来为暂 停降息辩护的同时，现实已经不留情面地让这番言论提前过期。 文︱陆弃 华尔街的黄金情绪并非偶然脉冲。这是全球避险情绪长期累积的爆发点。美国在对内经济维稳、对外贸易博弈之间持续摇摆，政策一致性已成奢望；劳动力 市场在科技裁员潮和资本紧缩之间疲态尽显，结构性问题被"临时强劲"的数据粉饰过头。此次非农爆冷，终于揭开遮羞布，也重新暴露美联储自2022年以来 被迫紧缩、又迟迟不敢转向的尴尬现实。 通胀虽未完全熄火，但就业已亮红灯，鲍威尔将在接下来的利率会议中面临空前的压力：若不降息，将被指控拖累经济；若提前转向，通胀预期可能再次抬 头。这种双输困局，恰恰是当前全球主要央行共同面临的瓶颈。而黄金的走强，正是这种困局被市场提前价格化的直接反应。 此轮金价反弹也将重新定义"安全资产"的国际竞争格局。美元曾因美联储激进加息而独领风骚，但如今政 ...

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones falling by 542.40 points (1.23%) to 43,588.58, the Nasdaq dropping by 2.24% to 20,650.13, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 1.60% to 6,238.01 [2] - For the week, the Dow Jones fell by 2.9%, the S&P 500 decreased by 2.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 2.2% [3] Employment Data - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in the last month, falling short of the expected increase of 104,000, while the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [3] - Employment growth has been primarily concentrated in previously understaffed sectors such as healthcare and social assistance, with a steady decline in the breadth of job creation in recent months [3] Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's survey indicated that US consumer confidence rose for the second consecutive month in July, with inflation expectations for the next year dropping to the lowest level since February [3] - Despite the positive trend in consumer sentiment, overall market sentiment remains negative, with consumers expressing concerns about the economic trajectory [3] Federal Reserve Actions - Federal Reserve officials expressed dissent regarding the decision to maintain interest rates, advocating for a loosening of monetary policy to prevent potential deterioration in the labor market [3] Treasury Yields - US Treasury yields fell sharply, with the two-year yield dropping by 26.5 basis points to 3.7% and the ten-year yield decreasing by 15.1 basis points to 4.22% [4] - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged to over 80% according to the FedWatch tool [4] Corporate Performance - Amazon's stock plummeted by 8.3% following a third-quarter revenue guidance that fell below market expectations [6] - Major tech stocks also performed poorly, with Apple down 2.5%, Nvidia down 2.3%, Tesla and Microsoft down 1.8%, and Meta down 0.7% [7] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.8%, with Alibaba down 2.9%, NetEase down 2.2%, Baidu down 2.0%, and JD down 1.8% [8] Oil and Gold Prices - Economic uncertainty and OPEC+ production increase expectations pressured oil prices, with WTI crude oil dropping by 2.79% to $67.33 per barrel and Brent crude oil down by 2.83% to $69.67 per barrel [8] - Safe-haven sentiment drove gold prices higher, with October contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange surpassing $3,400, marking a 2.02% increase [9]