Core Insights - The trend of global central banks increasing gold reserves continues, with the People's Bank of China having added gold for 11 consecutive months, surpassing 2300 tons in total holdings [2] - The gold ETF market has seen record inflows, with a total of $26 billion in the third quarter of 2025, bringing total assets under management to $472 billion, nearing historical peaks [2] - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the end of balance sheet reduction are expected to support gold prices, alongside ongoing demand from central banks and ETFs [1][2] Market Performance - As of October 30, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) decreased by 1.07%, with a latest price of 8.58 yuan, while it had a 5.27% increase over the past month [1] - The trading volume for the gold ETF was 619 million yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 2.406 billion yuan over the past month, ranking it among the top three comparable funds [1] Future Outlook - The core logic driving gold prices upward remains unchanged, with ongoing uncertainties in U.S. trade policy and a weak dollar expected to persist [3] - The trend of de-dollarization and adjustments in global central bank foreign exchange reserves are anticipated to increase gold allocation demand [3] - The gold ETF has seen a net outflow of 381 million yuan recently, but over the past ten trading days, there were net inflows on six days, totaling 3.455 billion yuan [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The overall supply - demand situation still suppresses oil prices, and the short - term market is weighing the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil companies and OPEC+ production plans [1]. - The upcoming Sino - US summit may lead to a continuous decline in risk aversion, but gold buying power remains strong, and gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. - PTA has weak upward momentum due to weakening supply - demand expectations and crude oil adjustments [3]. - Rubber has a low - position bullish outlook as Chinese rubber inventories continue to decline and macro - pressure eases [3]. - The hog futures price has rebounded, with short - term support but limited upward momentum, and breeders should hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. - Palm oil is under pressure and expected to run weakly in the short term due to increased supply expectations and loose domestic supply [4]. - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term, and Soybean No. 1 will run stably with an oscillating trend [5]. - The bond market has increased bullish factors but is difficult to operate, with a medium - term slightly bullish oscillating trend [5]. - Silver is bullish in the long - term, oscillating in the short - term, and there are opportunities to go long [6]. - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on the short - term [6]. - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long on the callback [7]. - L2601 contract of plastic is expected to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on the short - term [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - EIA report on October 24: commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels (a 1.62% decline), gasoline inventory decreased by 5.941 million barrels, and US domestic crude oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to 1.3644 million barrels per day. Western Russian port exports are expected to be about 2.33 million barrels per day in October [1]. - US crude oil inventory decline and optimistic trade talk prospects led to rising international oil prices, but supply - demand still suppresses prices [1]. Gold - Sino - US summit is scheduled for October 30. Risk aversion may decline, but gold buying power is strong. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. PTA - PTA social inventory is 3.1413 million tons, a decrease of 50,300 tons from the previous period. PTA capacity utilization is 75.98%, and polyester comprehensive capacity utilization is around 87.51% [3]. - Polyester has low inventory and stable demand, but PTA has weak upward momentum due to new device commissioning and expected supply - demand weakening [3]. Rubber - Thai raw material glue prices: 55.5 Thai baht per kilogram for glue and 53.25 Thai baht per kilogram for cup - rubber. Chinese natural rubber social inventory is 1.0389 million tons, a 1% decline [3]. - Chinese rubber inventory decline and reduced macro - pressure support a low - position bullish view [3]. Hog - On October 29, the national average pork price was 18.03 yuan per kilogram, unchanged; egg price was 7.37 yuan per kilogram, a 0.3% decline [4]. - Hog prices showed a north - weak and south - strong pattern. Futures prices rebounded with short - term support but limited upward power [4]. Palm Oil - Pakistan is considering increasing Indonesian palm oil import quotas. In September 2025, Pakistan's palm oil import value reached $481 million, a significant increase from $251 million last year [4]. - GAPKI expects a 10% increase in Indonesian palm oil production in 2025, suppressing prices. Domestic supply is loose, and palm oil is under pressure in the short term [4]. Soybean - Rabobank expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be 177 million tons (a 3% increase), export volume to be 111 million tons (basically unchanged), and planting area to reach 48.8 million hectares (a 2% increase) [5]. - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term, and Soybean No. 1 will run stably with an oscillating trend [5]. Short - term Treasury Bond - Shibor short - end varieties declined. Overnight decreased by 5.5 BP to 1.414%, 7 - day by 1.8 BP to 1.512%, 14 - day by 8.8 BP to 1.559%, and 1 - month by 0.1 BP to 1.556% [5]. - Loose funds are beneficial to the bond market, but it is difficult to operate, with a medium - term slightly bullish oscillating trend [5]. Silver - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1. Powell said further December rate cuts are not certain [6]. - Rate cuts increase risk appetite, making silver bullish in the long - term and oscillating in the short - term with limited downside [6]. Methanol - Jiangsu Taicang methanol price is 2210 yuan per ton, an increase of 3 yuan per ton. Domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization is 87.4% (a 2.13% decline), and downstream total capacity utilization is 75.11% (a 1.53% decline) [6]. - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at 2240. It is recommended to go long on the short - term [6]. Soda Ash - National heavy - duty soda ash mainstream price is 1275 yuan per ton. Weekly production is 740,500 tons (a 3.93% decline), and factory inventory is 1.7021 million tons (a 0.09% increase) [7]. - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at 1240. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on the callback [7]. Plastic - North China LLDPE mainstream price is 7085 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan per ton. LLDPE weekly production is 309,100 tons (a 0.17% increase), and production enterprise inventory is 139,200 tons (a 27.65% decline) [8]. - L2601 contract is expected to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term, with support at 6980. It is recommended to go long on the short - term [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term tops of gold and silver formed last week are confirmed. COMEX gold broke below $4000 per ounce this week, rebounded above $4000 on the 29th, and investors should wait for stabilization and stay on the sidelines [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - COMEX gold futures fell 1.04% to $3941.7 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.1% to $47.275 per ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.69% to 910.92 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.64% to 11265 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - As of October 29, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 2.87 tons to 1036.05 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, remained unchanged at 15209.57 tons [1]. - On the 28th, after Hamas fired on Israeli troops in the Gaza Strip, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed the Israeli army to launch a strong strike on the Gaza Strip. On the 29th, the Israeli army resumed the cease - fire agreement after the attack [1]. - Chinese President will meet with the US President in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on China - US relations and common concerns [1]. - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds target rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, ending the balance - sheet reduction from December 1. Fed Chair Powell said a further rate cut in December is "far from a foregone conclusion" [1]. Market Logic - The news of the China - US summit on the 30th is conducive to easing global trade tensions. The resumption of firing between Israel and Hamas on the 28th may trigger risk - aversion sentiment. The US government shutdown continues. Technical factors and profit - taking led to the sharp decline of COMEX gold and silver last week, followed by a short - term stabilization. COMEX gold broke below $4000 per ounce this week, and silver also pulled back [1]. Trading Strategy - Wait for gold and silver to stabilize and stay on the sidelines as the short - term tops are confirmed and COMEX gold broke below $4000 per ounce this week [2].

Core Viewpoint - Since August 2025, gold and silver prices have surged to historical highs, but experienced significant adjustments in mid-October due to profit-taking and other factors. The long-term bullish outlook for precious metals remains unchanged, supported by a liquidity easing environment and continued ETF inflows [1] Group 1 - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs since August 2025 [1] - Mid-October saw a significant price adjustment due to profit-taking [1] - The long-term bullish outlook for precious metals is supported by factors such as liquidity easing and ongoing ETF inflows [1] Group 2 - The absence of major changes in risk aversion sentiment and de-dollarization trends continues to favor precious metals [1] - Gold and silver are expected to regain upward momentum after a phase of adjustment [1] - Precious metals are projected to be a key theme in the commodity market from Q4 2025 to 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights significant progress in US-China negotiations, leading to reduced market risk aversion and a shift in focus from traditional safe-haven assets like gold to high-tech products [2] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which, despite being priced in, still exerts pressure on the dollar and supports gold prices [2] - Gold has experienced a significant drop of nearly $500, with a technical rebound observed around the 3880/90 level, confirming a short-term low [2] Group 2 - In the oil market, easing trade tensions and anticipated interest rate cuts have alleviated some demand concerns, but OPEC+ is clearly intent on controlling oil prices through production adjustments [4] - Geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have not significantly impacted oil supply, although India's potential cessation of Russian oil imports may create short-term speculative opportunities [4] - The technical outlook for oil indicates a precarious situation around the $60 mark, with a recommendation to maintain a bearish stance on rebounds [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][9] Core Views - The company achieved approximately 20% growth in both revenue and profit in the third quarter, with revenue reaching 5.224 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.93%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 188 million yuan, up 21.89% year-on-year [1][3] - The core retail business of gold and jewelry grew by 20%, benefiting from rising gold prices and increased investment demand [1][3] - The company is expanding its marketing network, having opened 5 new stores in the third quarter, resulting in a total of 106 stores [1][3] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin increased by 0.48 percentage points to 9.15%, driven by product mix optimization and rising gold prices [2][3] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 1.758 billion yuan, a significant increase of 96.31% year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow management [2][3] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 791 million, 882 million, and 989 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12.6, and 11.3 [3][4][9] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 16.55 billion yuan in 2023 to 31.01 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.32% [4][11] - Net profit is expected to increase from 707 million yuan in 2023 to 989 million yuan in 2027, with a growth rate of 12.08% [4][11] - The company maintains a stable EBIT margin, with projections of 5.62% in 2023 and gradually decreasing to 4.08% by 2027 [4][11]

Price Trends - Domestic gold jewelry prices continue to decline, currently at levels similar to two weeks ago, but still relatively high [1] - Lao Feng Xiang gold price decreased by 12 yuan per gram, now at 1187 yuan per gram, making it the highest among gold stores; Shanghai China Gold remains unchanged at 1112 yuan per gram, the lowest price [1][3] - The price difference between high and low gold prices has narrowed to 75 yuan per gram [1] Detailed Pricing - The following are the detailed quotes from major gold stores: - Lao Miao Gold: 1186 yuan per gram, down 12 [3] - Liufeng Gold: 1186 yuan per gram, down 12 [3] - Chow Tai Fook: 1186 yuan per gram, down 12 [3] - Zhou Liufu: 1122 yuan per gram, down 7 [1] - Gold Zhen: 1186 yuan per gram, down 12 [3] - Chao Hong Ji: 1186 yuan per gram, down 12 [3] - Zhou Sheng Sheng: 1185 yuan per gram, down 14 [3] - Cai Bai: 1160 yuan per gram, unchanged [3] - Shanghai China Gold: 1112 yuan per gram, unchanged [3] Platinum and Recovery Prices - Despite the decline in gold prices, platinum prices have increased by 8 yuan per gram, now at 643 yuan per gram [4] - Gold recovery prices have decreased by 6.3 yuan per gram, with significant price differences among brands: - Cai Bai: 895.30 yuan per gram [4] - Zhou Sheng Sheng: 898.30 yuan per gram [4] - Zhou Da Fu: 896.90 yuan per gram [4] - Lao Feng Xiang: 905.80 yuan per gram [4] International Market Influences - International gold prices have also seen a decline, with spot gold dropping to a three-week low of 3900 USD per ounce, closing at 3951.09 USD per ounce, a decrease of 0.76% [6] - As of the latest report, spot gold is at 3963.64 USD per ounce, down 0.44% [6] - Citibank has revised its short-term price targets for gold and silver, lowering the 0-3 month gold price forecast from 4000 USD to 3800 USD per ounce, and silver from 55 USD to 42 USD per ounce [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, dropping nearly 3000 RMB in just five days, is viewed as a minor fluctuation within a long-term bullish trend, according to expert Tavi Costa from Crescat Capital, who previously predicted a rise in gold prices to 2500 USD [1][3][8]. Market Reaction - On October 21, gold prices fell over 6%, marking the largest single-day drop since April 2013, with prices reaching as low as 3985.9 USD by October 27 [3][5]. - Major jewelry brands in China, such as Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook, adjusted their gold prices downward, with reductions ranging from 25 to 34 RMB per gram [3]. - Social media buzzed with stories of young investors losing money as they followed trends in gold investment [3][12]. Causes of Price Drop - The immediate trigger for the price drop was a sudden easing of geopolitical tensions, with leaders from Germany, France, and the UK calling for an immediate halt to military actions in Ukraine [3][5]. - Positive developments in US-China trade talks also contributed to a decrease in market risk aversion [3][5]. Market Dynamics - Traders on Wall Street quickly moved to short gold, driven by the narrative that reduced geopolitical risks diminished the need for safe-haven assets [5]. - Analysts noted that the previous significant rise in gold prices had led to an overbought market, making a technical correction inevitable [6]. - The strengthening US dollar and rising US Treasury yields further diminished gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [6]. Central Bank Behavior - Despite the price drop, a survey by the World Gold Council indicated that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold holdings over the next 12 months [7]. - Costa highlighted that the proportion of gold held by central banks has surpassed that of US Treasuries for the first time since 1996, suggesting significant room for price increases if gold holdings return to 75% levels seen in the 1970s [8]. Diverging Institutional Views - Some analysts predict that the recent decline marks the beginning of a downward trend, with potential prices dropping to 3500 USD by the end of next year [10]. - Conversely, Standard Chartered raised its 2026 gold price forecast by 16% to 4488 USD, citing strong retail and investment demand in Asia [10]. - UBS maintains a 12-month price outlook of 4000 USD, attributing this to high US fiscal deficits and an irreversible trend of de-dollarization [10]. Investor Sentiment - Ordinary investors are experiencing mixed outcomes, with some willing to endure short-term volatility for long-term gains, while others, particularly students, report significant losses from speculative investments [12][13]. - The gold recovery market is bustling, with increased demand for gold buybacks as many investors seek to liquidate their holdings [13]. Structural Changes in Gold Pricing - The perception of gold is shifting towards being a reserve asset free from sovereign credit risk, especially in extreme financial environments [14]. - The recent volatility in gold prices reflects deeper anxieties regarding the safety of dollar-denominated assets, as the US debt continues to rise significantly [18].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of reduced risk appetite, a strong dollar, and technical selling triggered by algorithmic trading [3][4][6]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Drop - Decreased risk appetite due to improved geopolitical signals from the US-China interactions and potential ceasefire talks in Ukraine, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - A strong rebound in the dollar index, driven by expectations of adjustments in Japan's yield curve control, which increased the cost of holding gold priced in dollars [4]. - Technical selling pressure as gold prices surged from $2,624 to $4,381 in 2025, prompting algorithmic trading to trigger sell-offs once the price fell below the critical support level of $1,900 [4]. Group 2: Impact on Different Stakeholders - For consumers looking to buy gold jewelry, the price drop presents an opportunity, with prices at around 1,198 RMB per gram, down from 1,245 RMB, allowing for potential savings [6]. - Investors holding gold ETFs or paper gold should remain calm and not panic sell, as the market may stabilize [6]. - For those considering buying physical gold bars, a phased approach is recommended, with suggested entry points at $1,880 and $1,850 per ounce to mitigate risks [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term outlook suggests continued pressure on gold prices due to geopolitical factors and a strong dollar, with potential dips to $1,850 [8]. - Long-term prospects remain positive, with central banks continuing to accumulate gold, and expectations of interest rate cuts in the future could enhance gold's attractiveness as an investment [9]. Group 4: Institutional Price Targets - Goldman Sachs projects gold prices could reach $4,900 by the end of 2026, while JPMorgan suggests extreme scenarios could push prices to $5,055 [10]. - Citigroup indicates that as long as global central bank purchases exceed 1,000 tons annually, gold prices will steadily rise above $2,200 [10]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - For consumers needing gold jewelry, it is advisable to observe the market for two weeks and consider buying if prices fall below 1,180 RMB per gram [11]. - Investors in gold bars should adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy, buying in increments as prices decline [11]. - For paper gold or ETFs, setting a stop-loss at $1,880 is recommended, but panic selling is discouraged [11].

【要闻速递】 在美国联邦政府停摆导致多数官方经济数据发布暂停的背景下，ADP Research宣布启动一项新举措—— 自本周起每周发布美国私营部门就业数据的四周移动平均值，作为原有月度报告的补充，旨在为劳动力 市场提供更及时的高频洞察。 根据ADP周二发布的声明，新数据指标为"私营部门总就业人数变化的四周移动平均值"，将于北京时间 每周二晚8点15分准时发布。最新数据显示，在截至10月11日的四周内，美国私营部门平均新增就业人 数为14250人，该数值通过滚动周期计算得出，能够更平滑地反映短期就业市场波动。 摘要今日周三（10月29日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3980美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 3974.90美元/盎司，涨幅0.60%，最高上探至3981.59美元/盎司，最低触及3916.03美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周三（10月29日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3980美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 3974.90美元/盎司，涨幅0.60%，最高上探至3981.59美元/盎司，最低触及3916.03美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。金价先稳后跌 ...