Group 1: Research Views Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly and failed to continue the upward trend. The domestic spot copper imports were in a loss state. The US economic data showed resilience and inflation persistence. The labor - market slowdown concerns were alleviated. The LME copper inventory decreased by 350 tons to 144,425 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,564 tons to 291,260 tons, and the domestic copper social inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 14.01 million tons. The Freeport McMoRan Indonesia Grasberg mine accident will impact global copper supply in Q4 and 2026. Although investors were cautious due to the cryptocurrency fluctuations and domestic holiday uncertainties, the supply reduction in Q4 will strongly support copper prices, and the quarterly average price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to Comex - LME copper and internal - external price spreads [1]. Aluminum - Alumina fluctuated weakly with AO2601 closing at 2919 yuan/ton, a 0.27% decline.沪铝 (AL2510) fluctuated strongly, closing at 20,800 yuan/ton, a 0.1% increase. Aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3000 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot remained at par. The domestic bauxite mines have not resumed production, and the ore inventory is declining. Alumina is generally bearish but has basically bottomed out. The aluminum ingot has not reached the actual de - stocking inflection point. With the approaching of the double festivals, the downstream is in the stocking stage, but the current outbound volume is at the lowest level in the past three years, and the downstream purchasing willingness has declined, which restricts the upward momentum of aluminum prices [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.26% to $15,240/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.86% to 121,680 yuan/ton. The LME nickel inventory remained at 230,586 tons, and the domestic SHFE nickel warrants increased by 134 tons to 25,105 tons. The stainless - steel weekly inventory continued to decline, with the national mainstream market stainless - steel 89 - warehouse social inventory at 984,500 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease. The cost of ferronickel has strengthened, but the supply has increased. In the new - energy sector, the ternary demand in September weakened slightly month - on - month, but the cobalt policy may lead to a relatively tight supply of MHP. The nickel price may rise slightly at the bottom, but inventory is a resistance to the price increase [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Copper - On September 25, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 82,465 yuan/ton, up 2,460 yuan from the previous day. The LME copper inventory decreased by 350 tons, the上期所 (SHFE) copper warrants increased by 243 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 11,760 tons. The domestic + bonded - area social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons [3]. Aluminum - On September 25, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 20,770 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan from the previous day, and the Nanhai price was 20,710 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,225 tons, the SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 3,328 tons, and the total SHFE inventory decreased by 765 tons. The electrolytic - aluminum social inventory remained unchanged at 63.8 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 1.4 million tons [4]. Nickel - On September 25, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 125,200 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan from the previous day. The LME nickel inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE nickel warrants increased by 134 tons, and the SHFE nickel inventory increased by 2,334 tons. The nickel social inventory increased by 429 tons [4]. Zinc - On September 25, 2025, the主力结算价 of zinc was 21,965 yuan/ton, up 0.2% from the previous day. The LME zinc price remained unchanged. The SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 600 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.92 million tons [6]. Tin - On September 25, 2025, the主力结算价 of tin was 273,150 yuan/ton, up 0.6% from the previous day. The LME tin price decreased by 2.1%. The SHFE tin inventory decreased by 909 tons, and the LME tin inventory increased by 45 tons [6]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Spot Premium - There are charts showing the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10]. 3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - There are charts showing the spread between the first - and second - month contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][21]. 3.3 LME Inventory - There are charts showing the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. 3.4 SHFE Inventory - There are charts showing the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. 3.5 Social Inventory - There are charts showing the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. 3.6 Smelting Profit - There are charts showing the copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, etc., with rich experience and many honors. Wang Heng, a non - ferrous researcher, focuses on aluminum - silicon research. Zhu Xi, a non - ferrous researcher, focuses on lithium - nickel research [50][51].

Core Viewpoint - Glass futures experienced a rapid increase, with the main contract peaking at 1241.00 yuan, closing at 1240.00 yuan, reflecting a 5.00% rise [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Wulian Futures expects glass prices to maintain a fluctuating trend due to overall weak terminal demand and cautious downstream purchasing behavior [2] - Jianxin Futures anticipates that the main glass futures contract will exhibit a short-term fluctuating trend, with supply slightly increasing but still at a low level, and demand remaining weak [3] - Donghai Futures predicts short-term fluctuations in the glass market, citing stable supply and limited demand growth, alongside fluctuating policy sentiment [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows limited adjustments in production lines, leading to a relatively abundant market supply, with regional inventory performance varying significantly [2] - The overall glass production is stable, with a slight week-on-week change, while downstream processing orders have increased slightly, indicating a minor improvement in demand [4] - The float glass market is experiencing significant price increases driven by strong demand, contrasting with the overall weak demand for new housing glass [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: Recent PP production decline due to losses in PDH and external propylene routes, leading to unplanned maintenance and inventory reduction. PE maintenance has reached a peak, with increasing开工 and de - stocking of mid - upstream inventory this week. More import offers from North America are emerging, and future supply rhythm and import offers need attention. Currently, the 01 contract faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, limiting upward space [2]. Methanol Industry - The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian shipments. Coastal inventory has reached a record high, weakening market sentiment and prices, with a slight weakening of the basis. On the supply - demand side, inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inland inventory pattern is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. Demand is weak due to the traditional off - season of downstream industries. Port arrivals are still high, with large inventory accumulation and weakening transactions. Overall valuation is neutral. The market is oscillating between high - inventory reality, weak basis, and overseas gas - restriction expectations in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [4]. Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: Recently, some plants have restarted or produced products, and maintenance plans have been postponed, keeping supply at a relatively high level. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and the secondary - downstream inventory of some products is high. There are planned and unplanned production cuts in styrene plants from September to October, weakening demand support. The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene in September remains loose, with weak price drivers. In the short term, price trends are affected by geopolitical and macro factors. - Styrene: Driven by peak - season demand and pre - National - Day stocking of some factories, overall demand is okay but with limited growth. On the supply side, due to inventory and profit pressure, more plants have stopped or reduced production, and some have cut production due to accidents. With overseas plant maintenance, styrene export expectations have increased, reducing supply expectations. Port inventory has accumulated, pressuring styrene prices. In the short term, styrene may be affected by oil - price geopolitical situations and reduced concerns about supply increments. Strategies include short - selling on price rebounds for EB11 and widening the EB11 - BZ11 spread at low levels, but the driving force is limited [13]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is that market concerns about immediate supply surplus have eased, and geopolitical risk premiums have resurfaced. Specifically, the deadlock in the oil - export agreement in the Kurdistan region of Iraq has dispelled the expectation of about 230,000 barrels per day of new supply, triggering a key rebound after the previous oil - price decline and supporting the near - month spread. Meanwhile, Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries and NATO's tough stance have increased the risk of supply disruption of Russian refined products such as diesel, pushing up the crack spread and supporting crude oil from both sentiment and cost aspects. Overall, although macro - level reports such as those from the International Energy Agency still point to a loose supply situation, short - term geopolitical factors have become the main pricing factor in the market, temporarily overriding the bearish expectation of potential increases in US crude - oil inventory. In the short term, oil prices are expected to trade in a range. It is recommended to conduct band - trading on a single - side basis, with the WTI trading range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to widen the spread after volatility increases [32]. Urea Industry - Urea futures prices have been weakly oscillating recently. The main logic is sufficient supply and insufficient demand support. Specifically, the daily industry output remains above 200,000 tons, and new production capacity is about to be released, increasing supply pressure. Agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and industrial demand has weakened due to the decline in compound - fertilizer plant开工. Although there are some export - port - collection orders, the overall impact is limited. Market confidence is lacking, and continuous inventory accumulation further suppresses the futures price, lacking substantial positive drivers [37]. Polyester Industry - PX: Recent increases in PX supply are obvious due to the capacity increase from short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of maintenance of some domestic PX plants. On the demand side, due to low PTA processing fees, new PTA plant commissioning has been delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans. The supply - demand outlook for PX in the fourth quarter is expected to weaken further, with an expected compression of the PXN spread. In terms of absolute price, the attack on Russian oil - distribution facilities by Ukraine has boosted short - term oil prices, which may support PX in the short term. Strategies include short - term long - positions on PX11 or short - selling on price rebounds. - PTA: Due to low processing fees, new PTA plant commissioning has been delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans, reducing supply expectations. However, the peak - season performance of downstream industries is average, and the spot basis of PTA has been weakly running. In terms of absolute price, short - term oil - price increases may support PTA. Strategies include short - term long - positions or short - selling on price rebounds for TA, and a rolling reverse - spread strategy for TA1 - 5. - Ethylene glycol: Supply - demand is gradually weakening. In the short term, ethylene - glycol imports in September are expected to be low, and inventory is expected to decrease this month, keeping port inventory at a low level. However, the terminal market is currently weak, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long term, the supply - demand outlook for ethylene glycol in the fourth quarter is weak, as the Yulong Petrochemical plant has increased its load to 60% - 70%, the Satellite Petrochemical plant will restart in October, and demand will decline seasonally in the fourth quarter. Ethylene glycol will enter an inventory - accumulation phase, facing upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the progress of plant commissioning and restart. Strategies include selling call options EG2601 - C - 4400 on price increases and a reverse - spread strategy for EG1 - 5. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. Recently, short - fiber supply has remained high. On the demand side, although it is the peak - season of "Golden September and Silver October" and downstream industries have restocking demand before the National Day, new orders for gray fabrics are limited, and this year's peak - season performance is average. Short - fiber prices are supported at low levels, but the upward - rebound driving force is weak, and the price movement follows raw - material fluctuations. Strategies are the same as for PTA on a single - side basis. The processing fee on the futures market is expected to oscillate between 800 - 1100 yuan/ton, with limited upward and downward driving forces. - Bottle - grade polyester chips: Recently, some bottle - grade polyester chip plants have restarted while others have stopped production, with overall production capacity remaining basically unchanged. As the price has dropped to the lowest level of the year and there is rigid restocking demand before the National Day, downstream industries and traders are replenishing inventory at low prices, supporting the absolute price and processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips and reducing inventory. However, the supply - demand situation remains loose. PR prices follow the cost - end fluctuations, and the upward space of the processing fee is limited. Attention should be paid to whether there will be more production cuts in bottle - grade polyester chip plants and the downstream follow - up situation. Strategies are the same as for PTA on a single - side basis. The processing fee of the PR main - contract on the futures market is expected to oscillate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [40][41]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: The futures price continued to weaken yesterday. Supply has increased this week, and the开工 rate of sample enterprises has increased. On the downstream side, recent continuous declines in domestic and overseas alumina prices have narrowed the profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises, weakening the support for spot prices. Affected by the decline in the purchase price of the main downstream in Shandong and cautious downstream purchasing, inventory in the North China region has increased. In the East China region, enterprises with maintenance and load - reduction devices have not yet resumed, resulting in tight supply. Non - aluminum demand has followed up as a rigid need, and inventory has decreased. This week, in the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, it will take time to release short - term local caustic - soda inventory. With the current high - level supply and poor sales in the main downstream, there is a possibility of further price cuts. Previously, short - selling was recommended, and short positions can be held. - PVC: The futures price weakened yesterday, and the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is still difficult to resolve. On the supply side, many plants will end maintenance next week, with expected production increases. On the demand side, the开工 rate of downstream products has increased limitedly, and some have completed inventory replenishment, being resistant to high prices and having average purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the price of raw - material calcium carbide has been rising, and the ethylene price has remained stable, providing bottom - level support for costs. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [45]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all declined on September 23 compared to September 22. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 11.11%, while that of PP2509 - 2601 increased by 17.95%. Spot prices of some products also changed, such as a 0.28% decline in the price of North China LDPE film stock [2]. - **开工 and Inventory**: PE plant开工 rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%, and downstream weighted开工 rate increased by 1.78% to 42.9%. PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 45.1 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.45% to 54.7 tons. PP plant开工 rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9%, while PP powder开工 rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5%. Downstream weighted开工 rate increased by 1.2% to 51.5%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 58.2 tons, and trader inventory increased by 14.74% to 19.3 tons [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, MA2601 futures price decreased by 0.21%, and MA2509 increased by 0.17%. The MA91 spread decreased by 60.00%. Spot prices of different regions showed different changes, such as a 0.73% increase in the price of Inner Mongolia's north - line spot and a 0.44% decrease in the price of Taicang port spot [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048 tons, port inventory increased by 0.48% to 155.8 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.28% to 189.8 tons [4]. - **开工 Rates**: The domestic upstream enterprise开工 rate decreased slightly by 0.12% to 72.66%, and the overseas upstream enterprise开工 rate decreased by 4.94% to 68.6%. The downstream external - MTO device开工 rate increased by 8.72% to 75.08%, while the fatty - acid开工 rate decreased by 3.41% to 82.3% [4]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, Brent crude oil (November) increased by 1.6%, and WTI crude oil (October) increased by 1.2%. CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.4%, while CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7%. The pure - benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 5.6%, and the ethylene - naphtha spread decreased by 1.0% [9]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The latest styrene spot price in East China decreased by 1.0%. EB2510, EB2511 futures prices also declined. The EB basis (10) increased by 33.3%, and the EB10 - EB11 spread increased by 112.5%. EB non - integrated and integrated cash flows both decreased [10]. - **Inventory**: Pure - benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 20.1% to 10.70 tons from September 15 to September 22, while styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 17.3% to 18.65 tons [12]. - **开工 Rates**: The Asian pure - benzene开工 rate remained unchanged at 79.0%. The domestic pure - benzene开工 rate decreased by 1.2% to 78.4%, while the domestic hydrogenated - benzene开工 rate increased by 9.1% to 59.6%. The styrene开工 rate decreased by 2.1% to 73.4% [13]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On September 24, Brent increased by 1.59% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI decreased by 0.54% to 63.15 dollars/barrel, and SC decreased by 1.55% to 483.60 yuan/barrel. The Brent M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.82%, the WTI M1 - M3 spread decreased by 49.65%, and the SC M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.33% [32]. - **Refined - Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.46% to 200.82 cents/gallon, NYM ULSD increased by 0.85% to 234.78 cents/gallon, and ICE Gasoil increased by 2.43% to 705.75 dollars/ton. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 27.94%, the ULSD M1 - M3 spread decreased by 130.40%, and the Gasoil M1 - M3 spread decreased by 44.95% [32]. - **Refined - Product Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of various refined products showed different changes. For example, the US gasoline crack spread increased by 1.10%, while the European diesel crack spread decreased by 0.90% [32]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, the 01 - contract futures price of urea decreased by 0.12%, and the 05 - contract remained unchanged. The price difference between the 01 - contract and 05 - contract decreased by 3.77% [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic daily urea production increased by 1.82% to 19.56 tons on September 19 compared to September 18. The weekly domestic urea production increased by 2.36% to 133.00 tons, and the weekly domestic urea plant - inventory increased by 2.88% to 113.27 tons [37]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On September 23, the prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other polyester products changed. POY150/48 cash flow increased by 134.9%, while FDY150/96 cash flow decreased by 19.3% [40]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX decreased by 0.6% on September 23. The PX basis (11) decreased by 57.7%, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 3.3% [40]. - **开工 Rates**: The Asian PX开工 rate decreased by 0.8% to 78.2%, the Chinese PX开工 rate decreased by 1.5% to 86.3%, and the PTA开工 rate remained unchanged at 76.8% [40]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic - Soda Spot & Futures**: On September 23, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained unchanged, while Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 2.4%. The market price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.8% [45]. - **Caustic - Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The FOB price of East China ports increased by 1.3% to 400 dollars/ton on September 18 compared to September 11, and the export profit increased by 3723.4% to 223.4 yuan/ton [45]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The CFR Southeast Asia PVC price remained unchanged at 650 dollars/ton on September 18 compared to September 11, and the export profit decreased by 266.4% to - 22.4 yuan/ton [45]. - **Supply:

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers outlooks for individual metals: - Copper: Expected to be in a moderately bullish and volatile pattern [5][6] - Alumina: Short - term outlook is volatile and bearish, suggesting short - selling at high prices or staying on the sidelines [6][7][8] - Aluminum: Expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term [9][10] - Aluminum Alloy: ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level volatile state in the short - term, with potential for an upward movement later [11][12] - Zinc: Expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a downward trend in the medium - to long - term [12][13] - Lead: Expected to be moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] - Nickel: Expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term, with a wait - and - see approach in the medium - to long - term [17][18] - Stainless Steel: Expected to be volatile [19][22] - Tin: Expected to be in a volatile state [23] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall for non - ferrous metals: Before the National Day holiday, downstream restocking is expected, and non - ferrous metals may stabilize and rebound. In the short - to medium - term, weak US dollar and supply disruptions support prices, while weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support prices [1] - For individual metals: - Copper: The Fed's interest rate cut and supply disruptions, along with the approaching peak demand season, support copper prices. However, factors such as unexpected tariff policies and weak domestic demand recovery pose risks [5][6] - Alumina: The fundamental situation remains weak, with excess supply and strong inventory accumulation. Prices are under pressure until factors such as smelter losses and production cuts or ore - end policy disruptions occur [6][7][8] - Aluminum: After the short - term interest rate cut, the demand side shows marginal improvement, but the inventory decline inflection point is not clear. The price is expected to be volatile [9][10] - Aluminum Alloy: Cost support is strong, but the peak season demand needs to be verified. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [11][12] - Zinc: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and there is a downward trend in the long - term [12][13] - Lead: Before the National Day, the demand for lead ingots increases, and the supply may tighten. The price is expected to be moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] - Nickel: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term [17][18] - Stainless Steel: Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand and inventory changes. The price is expected to be volatile [19][22] - Tin: The supply is tight, providing strong support for the price. However, the terminal demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be in a volatile state [23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp; the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia suspended operations; in August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year; on September 22, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper and copper inventory changed [5] - Logic: The Fed's interest rate cut and supply disruptions support copper prices. The approaching peak demand season increases downstream restocking willingness. If the inventory continues to decline, copper prices may continue to be strong [6] - Outlook: Copper may show a moderately bullish and volatile pattern [6] 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: On September 22, the spot price of alumina in different regions changed; an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and the price decreased; the alumina warehouse receipt increased [6][7] - Logic: The fundamentals remain weak, with excess supply and strong inventory accumulation. The price is under pressure until there are factors such as smelter losses and production cuts or ore - end policy disruptions [6][7][8] - Outlook: Short - term outlook is volatile and bearish. Consider short - selling at high prices or staying on the sidelines, and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [8] 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: On September 22, the price of SMM AOO aluminum, aluminum ingot inventory, aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipt changed; in August, China's aluminum and its products exports decreased year - on - year; the Fed cut interest rates; an Indonesian aluminum smelter plans to be put into production [9] - Logic: After the short - term interest rate cut, the demand side shows marginal improvement, but the inventory decline inflection point is not clear. The price is expected to be volatile [9][10] - Outlook: Volatile in the short - term, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term [9][10] 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information: On September 22, the price of Baotai ADC12, the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and SMM AOO aluminum, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange registered warehouse receipt changed; in August, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased year - on - year; the EU may impose a tax on scrap metal exports [10][11] - Logic: Cost support is strong, but the peak season demand needs to be verified. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [11][12] - Outlook: ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level volatile state in the short - term, with potential for an upward movement later [11][12] 3.1.5 Zinc - Information: On September 22, the spot price of zinc in different regions and SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory changed; CZSPT released the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate procurement in the fourth quarter of 2025 [12] - Logic: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and there is a downward trend in the long - term [12][13] - Outlook: Volatile in the short - term, with a downward trend in the medium - to long - term [12][13] 3.1.6 Lead - Information: On September 22, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the price difference between primary and secondary lead, the price of SMM1 lead ingot, and lead ingot inventory changed; downstream lead - acid battery enterprises are restocking before the National Day [13][14] - Logic: Before the National Day, the demand for lead ingots increases, and the supply may tighten. The price is expected to be moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] - Outlook: Moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] 3.1.7 Nickel - Information: On September 22, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt decreased; the price of high - nickel pig iron is supported by cost and the peak season, but the demand is weak; some nickel - related events such as corporate acquisitions and land seizures occurred [16][17] - Logic: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term [17][18] - Outlook: Wide - range volatile in the short - term, wait - and - see in the medium - to long - term [17][18] 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased; the spot price difference between Foshan Hongwang 304 and the stainless steel main contract, and the transaction prices of high - nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia were reported [19][22] - Logic: Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand and inventory changes. The price is expected to be volatile [19][22] - Outlook: Volatile in the short - term [19][22] 3.1.9 Tin - Information: On September 22, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased, Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased, Shanghai tin positions decreased, and the spot price of 1 tin ingot increased [23] - Logic: The supply is tight, providing strong support for the price. However, the terminal demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be in a volatile state [23] - Outlook: Volatile [23] 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of various metals for monitoring (copper, alumina, aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin) but does not provide specific monitoring content [25][26][40] 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: Not detailed - Special Index: The commodity 20 index increased by 0.44% to 2510.95, the industrial products index decreased by 0.34% to 2246.26 [151] - Sector Index: The non - ferrous metals index on September 22 was 2385.20, with a daily increase of 0.17%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.85%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.33%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.33% [153]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply increment is obvious due to short - process losses and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. The supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter is weak, and PXN is expected to compress. Suggest to treat PX11's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 6500 [2]. - PTA: Supply is expected to shrink due to low processing fees and postponed new plant commissioning. However, demand growth is limited, and the basis is weakly volatile. Suggest to treat TA's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 4500; conduct a rolling reverse spread on TA1 - 5 [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Supply - demand is gradually weakening. It will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter. Suggest to sell call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and conduct a reverse spread on EG1 - 5 [2]. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. It has support at low levels but weak rebound drivers. The strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1000 [2]. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is loose. PR follows the cost side. Suggest that the strategy for PR is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the main disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The market in Shandong may see price cuts in the short - term. It can be shorted in the short - term [29]. - PVC: The market is weakly volatile. Supply is expected to increase next week, and demand growth is limited. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Pay attention to downstream demand [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply remains at a relatively high level, and demand support is weak. In the short - term, the price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors. Suggest that BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of styrene and crude oil [31]. - Styrene: Demand is fair but with limited growth. Supply is expected to decrease. The absolute price is under pressure. Suggest to treat EB11's rebound with a short - bias and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at low levels [31]. Urea Industry - Urea: The futures price is weakly running due to the contradiction between high supply and weak demand. The supply - demand pattern is likely to remain weak in the future. The price may continue to be under pressure, but it may form a bottom support near the production cost [39]. Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: PP production has decreased recently, and PE inventory has been destocked. The 01 contract may face large inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upside space [43]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian shipments. The price is weakening, and the basis is slightly weakening. The overall valuation is neutral. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point [46]. Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil: The overnight oil price fell due to concerns about supply surplus outweighing geopolitical risk premiums. The fundamental outlook is bearish. Suggest to wait and see on the single - side trading, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side after the volatility increases [52]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Cash Flows**: Most downstream polyester product prices and cash flows decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha also declined [2]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Asian and Chinese PX开工率 decreased. PTA supply is expected to shrink, and MEG will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most segments in the polyester industry chain decreased or remained stable on a weekly basis [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot showed minor changes. The export profit of caustic soda increased slightly, while that of PVC decreased [29]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased. The inventory of caustic soda in North China increased, while that in East China decreased. PVC total social inventory increased slightly [29]. - **Downstream Demand**: The开工率 of caustic soda's downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber increased, while that of PVC's downstream products such as pipes and profiles showed minor changes [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. The cash flows of some downstream products improved [31]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased, while styrene's increased. The开工率 of some segments in the industry chain changed slightly [31]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of urea decreased. The basis in some regions changed significantly [39]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Domestic urea production increased, and the inventory in factories increased while that in ports decreased. The order days of production enterprises decreased [39]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand from agriculture and industry remained weak, and the开工率 of compound fertilizer enterprises declined [39]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PE and PP futures and spot decreased. The basis of PE and PP changed slightly [43]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: PP production decreased due to losses in some production routes, and PE inventory was destocked. The 01 contract may face inventory accumulation pressure [43]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The PE装置开工率 increased, while the PP装置开工率 decreased. The downstream weighted开工率 of PE and PP increased slightly [43]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices decreased. The basis and regional spreads changed [46]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The domestic and overseas开工率 of methanol enterprises changed slightly. The inventory in ports increased, and the overall social inventory increased slightly [46]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The upstream - domestic and overseas企业开工率 of methanol decreased slightly, while the downstream - MTO装置开工率 increased [46]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil and refined oil prices showed minor changes on September 23 compared to September 22. The spreads between different crude oil varieties and refined oil products also changed [52]. - **Supply - demand**: Supply increased due to Iraq's increased exports and planned pipeline resumption. Demand is under pressure due to economic concerns and seasonal decline [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: On Friday night, Shanghai copper opened high and went higher. Today, copper prices maintained a strong shock, with a slight decline in open interest. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. High copper prices previously led to strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment. The decline in copper prices and pre - holiday stocking demand boosted industrial restocking willingness, supporting copper prices. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated, with open interest continuously declining. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. In September, aluminum prices generally remained high, and downstream restocking willingness was weak. As futures prices declined, the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. Technically, Shanghai aluminum pulled back after hitting a high in March, facing significant technical pressure. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel rose and then fell, with open interest continuously rising. In the morning, the main futures price reached the 122,000 mark. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. On the industrial side, disruptions at the Indonesian mine end were positive for nickel prices, while the continuous increase in domestic nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory was negative for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices were still in the shock range. Pay attention to the 120,000 - 123,000 range [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - In August 2025, China's copper enameled wire exports were 12,806 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.82% and a month - on - month increase of 2.09%. From January to August, China's copper enameled wire exports totaled 94,935.7 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.41% [8]. - In August 2025, China's copper clad laminate (HS code: 74102110) imports were 3,417.14 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.12% and a month - on - month increase of 5.68%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 26,439.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.23%. In August, exports were 8,377.20 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.22% and a month - on - month increase of 15.87%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 59,867.55 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.85% [8]. Aluminum - In August 2025, the imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 71,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7% and a month - on - month increase of 2.6%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 682,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.2%. In August, the exports were 29,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% and a month - on - month increase of 16.7%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 174,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [9]. - In August 2025, the exports of domestic aluminum profiles were 84,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.94% [9]. Nickel - On September 22, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,300 - 124,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [22][24][26] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][37][38]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: The operation rating is not clearly defined in text, but it can be inferred from the star system that it may be a more bullish or bearish trend based on the context. The star rating is not specified in a way that can be directly translated to a standard investment rating, but the analysis shows a mid - term bearish trend. [1][2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity. [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The text does not clearly state its star rating, but the analysis provides investment suggestions. [3] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity. [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, suggesting a more distinct bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity. [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil: The mid - term bearish trend of crude oil prices remains unchanged. Short - term geopolitical factors may cause temporary supply fluctuations, but the rebound space is increasingly limited. A strategy combination of high - level short positions and call options is recommended. [2] - Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil: The decline of fuel - related futures is relatively limited. The low - sulfur supply pressure is limited, and it is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of expanding the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils when the spread is low. [3] - Asphalt: The asphalt futures continue the range - bound trend. The price has bottom support and limited downward space. [4] - LPG: The overseas market is strong, and the short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. The spot has good bottom support, and attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking market. [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The SC11 contract fell 1.87% overnight. Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels due to a sharp increase in exports, while the increase in middle - distillate inventories raised market concerns about demand. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut did not bring more - than - expected positive effects. [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - After the frequent attacks on Russian refineries, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline. The increasing operating rate of Shandong refineries is beneficial to the feedstock demand for fuel oil. The growth in ship - fuel consumption in the Singapore market is concentrated in the high - sulfur ship - fuel sector. The third - batch low - sulfur fuel oil export quota in 2025 is 700,000 tons, lower than 1 million tons in the same period last year, but the cumulative quota has increased by 900,000 tons year - on - year. The low quota utilization rate limits the low - sulfur supply pressure. [3] Asphalt - The asphalt futures continue the range - bound trend as crude oil continues to correct. The factory and social inventories continue to decline, but the decline has slowed down compared to the beginning of the week. As of now this week, the cumulative warehouse receipts in East China warehouses have decreased by 3,050 tons, and 1,330 tons of factory - warehouse receipts were cancelled today. The downward pressure on East China's spot prices has eased, while the spot prices in South China and Hebei remain stable. [4] LPG - The overseas market remains strong. Due to the high import demand and rising geopolitical risks, the overall sentiment is bullish. In South China, the impact of typhoons has reduced imported goods. The good chemical profit margins can maintain a high operating - rate pattern, and the short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. The spot has good bottom support. [5]

1. Steel Industry 1.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 1.2 Core View The steel market is currently influenced by weak demand and the expectation of a contraction in coal supply. With the impact of reduced coking coal supply and pre - National Day restocking, the downward space is expected to be limited, and prices will maintain a range - bound trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan. Hold long positions at low levels and monitor the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [1]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3260 to 3240 yuan/ton. The 05 - contract price of rebar decreased by 33 yuan to 3204 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices decreased, while slab prices remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions mostly declined, and the profits of rebar also showed a mixed trend [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.4 to 241.0 tons (0.2% increase). The production of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5 tons (- 0.2%). The inventory of five major steel products increased slightly by 5.1 to 1519.7 tons (0.3% increase) [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3 tons (0.8% increase), and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 12.0 to 210.0 tons (6.0% increase) [1]. 2. Iron Ore Industry 2.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2.2 Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. Considering that the steel mills' profitability is still relatively high, the pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level. The low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. It is recommended to view the single - side trend as oscillating upwards, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is suggested to buy the 2601 contract of iron ore at low levels and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The basis of the 01 - contract for various iron ore powders decreased significantly. For example, the 01 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 39.8 to 40.3 yuan/ton (- 49.7%). The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 19.5 yuan/ton (2.6%) [4]. - **Supply**: The global shipment volume of iron ore last week increased significantly by 816.9 to 3573.1 tons (29.6%), while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3 tons (- 3.5%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.4 to 241.0 tons (0.2%), and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 13.5 to 337.3 tons (4.2%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41 tons (- 0.3%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1 tons (0.6%) [4]. 3. Coking Coal and Coke Industry 3.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 3.2 Core View For coke, the market is driven by the expectation of coal - coke production restrictions in September and the bottom - building and rebound in the future. It is recommended to buy the 2601 contract of coke at low levels, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, it is also recommended to buy the 2601 contract of coking coal at low levels, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300 [6]. 3.3 Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1509 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract price of coke decreased by 26 to 1709 yuan/ton (- 1.5%). The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) increased by 30 to 1230 yuan/ton (2.5%) [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 tons, while the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6 tons (5.1%). The raw coal output of main - producing areas increased by 11.4 to 872.5 tons (1.3%) [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.4 to 241.0 tons (0.2%), and the demand for coking coal and coke showed an upward trend [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2 tons (1.0%), with coking plants reducing inventory and steel mills and ports increasing inventory. The total coking coal inventory also increased slightly, with different inventory trends among different sectors [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the supply has recently returned, and with some major suppliers selling goods, the spot market liquidity is fair. The market supply - demand outlook is weak, and the spot basis is gradually declining. PTA spot prices mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to polyester upstream - downstream device changes and terminal demand [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory increased slightly this week, but it's unlikely to be persistent this month. Due to pre - holiday stocking, polyester factories still have demand for low - price restocking. In the short term, MEG supply - demand remains tight, and the basis has some support during the delivery period. However, with the progress of new device commissioning, the supply - demand will turn loose in the far - month, and the futures price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1.前日回顾 - No relevant content provided 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: PTA futures fluctuated briefly following the cost side yesterday and finally closed slightly lower. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis changed little. September goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4585 - 4670. October goods were traded at a discount of 55 - 60 to the 01 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 77 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4626, and the 01 contract basis is - 40, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased [5]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, pay attention to polyester device changes and terminal demand [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: On Thursday, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated weakly. In the morning, the MEG futures fluctuated narrowly, with traders mainly conducting swap transactions. Near noon, the futures price declined weakly, and the spot basis strengthened moderately. In the afternoon, affected by a cracking anomaly in a South China device, the market sentiment was boosted. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer - market price adjusted widely. In the morning, recent shipments were negotiated around 516 - 519 US dollars/ton, and in the afternoon, the negotiation center回调 to 514 - 515 US dollars/ton. The difference between the inner and outer markets was large, and the buying follow - up was weak [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4362, and the 01 contract basis is 94, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased [7]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, pay attention to port shipment conditions and device changes [7]. 3.3.今日关注 - **Influencing Factors Summary** - **Positive Factors**: The average operating load of polyester devices has further increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start is slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [11]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [10]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points** - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the futures price rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, output, import, export, consumption, inventory, etc. For example, in September 2025, the PTA capacity is 9172, the output is 626, the total supply is 626, the total demand is 624, and the inventory at the end of the period is 337 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, supply, consumption, port inventory, etc. For example, in September 2025, the EG output is 58, the total supply is 234, the total demand is 233, and the supply - demand difference is 2 [13]. - **Price Data**: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and their changes from September 17 to September 18, 2025. For example, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased from 575.5 to 584.5 US dollars/ton, and the CCFEI price index of PTA (domestic) decreased from 4630 to 4590 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory Data**: It shows the inventory situation of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester filaments, etc. from 2021 to 2025, including factory - inventory available days and port inventory [43][45]. - **Operating Rate Data**: It shows the operating rate situation of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and downstream weaving machines from 2020 to 2025 [54][56][58][60]. - **Profit Data**: It shows the profit situation of PTA, MEG, polyester fibers, etc. from 2022 to 2025, including processing fees and production gross margins [62][64][66][68][69].

Core Viewpoint - The main trend in the zinc futures market is a slight decline, with the Shanghai zinc futures main contract showing a decrease of 0.09% and closing at 22,280.00 yuan [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Shenyin Wanguo Futures, zinc prices are expected to experience weak fluctuations within a range due to a potential oversupply situation, influenced by factors such as the recovery of zinc concentrate processing fees and positive growth in construction investment [2] - Jianxin Futures indicates that the Shanghai zinc market is likely to maintain a range-bound oscillation pattern, with supply remaining relatively loose despite some production declines in the zinc smelting sector [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall smelting profit has turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise, although there are indications of a slight decrease in production from some recycled zinc enterprises due to rising raw material prices [2][3] - The inventory of galvanized sheets has been increasing weekly, and while primary consumption sectors are showing improvements, the transmission of this improvement to the market remains slow [3]