1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In February 2026, the pulp market was in a game between "cost support, high inventory, and weak demand". The supply was generally loose, with high - level imports gradually decreasing, high domestic production, and rising port inventories. The demand was structurally differentiated, with packaging paper having rigid demand for broad - leaf pulp, the recovery of the tissue paper industry, and weak cultural paper demand dragging down the consumption of softwood pulp. The total consumption of wood pulp decreased month - on - month [4][50]. - In March, the pulp market is expected to oscillate moderately and move upward slightly, with the valuation center likely to rise slightly. However, the high inventory of softwood pulp and the delayed recovery of cultural paper demand will limit the increase. The double - offset paper market is expected to remain "weakly stable with marginal improvement", and it is difficult for the valuation to fluctuate significantly [5][50][52]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface - The pulp market in February was characterized by the game between cost support, high inventory, and weak demand. The Spring Festival holiday exacerbated the supply - demand contradiction, with high inventory and difficult price increases for paper mills [3][4]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Pulp Futures and Spot Price Trends Review - In February 2026, the domestic pulp market showed a differentiated pattern of "weak oscillation before the Spring Festival and improved sentiment after the festival". In the spot market, softwood pulp rose with the futures, broad - leaf pulp increased significantly due to foreign price hikes, and other types of pulp remained stable or had regional differences. In the futures market, the contract oscillated upward after the festival driven by funds [10][13]. 3.2.2 Pulp Supply - Import: The import volume was at a high level but gradually decreased. The supply of softwood pulp remained stable, and the import of broad - leaf pulp was supported by foreign price hikes. In the future, the import scale may decline slowly but remain high in the short term [20]. - Domestic production: The domestic production capacity was accelerating, and the output remained at a high level. The expansion was mainly concentrated in the broad - leaf pulp field, and the substitution effect of non - wood pulp was gradually increasing [21][22]. - Port inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching over 240.1 million tons. The de - stocking pressure was mainly on softwood pulp, while broad - leaf pulp was in a tight - balance state [22]. 3.2.3 Pulp Demand - Cultural paper: Affected by the Spring Festival and the off - season, the demand was weak, and the profit was under pressure. Paper mills purchased pulp cautiously [26]. - Packaging paper: Supported by pre - festival order completion and post - festival restocking, the demand for broad - leaf pulp was rigid [26]. - Tissue paper: After the festival, paper mills resumed production, and the consumption of softwood and broad - leaf pulp increased steadily [29]. 3.2.4 Cultural Paper Market Review - In February, the cultural paper market continued the pattern of "stable price, weak volume, and pressured profit". The prices of double - offset paper and coated paper remained stable, but the industry loss increased, and the inventory continued to accumulate [30]. 3.2.5 Cultural Paper Supply - Demand and Inventory - Production: Affected by the Spring Festival, the production capacity utilization rate of double - offset paper and coated paper was at a low level [38]. - Inventory: The inventory of double - offset paper reached a new high, and the inventory days were far beyond the reasonable range. The inventory removal was difficult [39][40]. - Profit: Although paper mills intended to raise prices, it was difficult to implement due to sufficient downstream inventory, loose supply - demand, and "low - price order - grabbing" by small and medium - sized paper mills [41]. 3.2.6 Cultural Paper Demand Analysis - Import and export: The export volume of double - offset paper was stable but the price was weak, and the cumulative decline narrowed. The export of coated paper remained at a low level [46]. - Downstream demand: Affected by the Spring Festival, the apparent consumption of double - offset paper and coated paper decreased. The demand from the publishing and social printing sectors was weak, and the real demand recovery was slower than expected [46][47]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations 3.3.1 Pulp Fundamental Analysis - In March, the pulp market is expected to oscillate moderately and move upward slightly. The support factors include continuous foreign price hikes, the recovery of downstream demand, and the possible de - stocking of port inventory. The restrictive factors are the high inventory of softwood pulp and the delayed recovery of cultural paper demand [50]. 3.3.2 Pulp Futures Strategy Analysis - Unilateral: Adopt a low - level long - buying strategy. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell SP2605 - P - 5200 [51]. 3.3.3 Double - Offset Paper Fundamental Analysis - In March, the double - offset paper market is expected to remain "weakly stable with marginal improvement". The positive factors are the marginal recovery of downstream demand and the support of pulp prices. The negative factors are the high inventory and the "low - price order - grabbing" by small and medium - sized paper mills [52]. 3.3.4 Double - Offset Paper Strategy Analysis - Unilateral: Adopt a high - level short - selling strategy and pay attention to the post - Spring Festival resumption of work. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Pay attention to the opportunity to sell call options [55].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the asphalt futures market generally followed the trend of crude oil costs but with weaker upward momentum. The price of near - term asphalt was suppressed by factors such as the stagnation of rigid demand during the Spring Festival holiday, and it stabilized with limited increases under the support of cost, low supply, and low inventory. The first - wave drive of the contradiction between the shortage of Venezuelan raw materials and cost increase was realized in early January, and the subsequent expected bullish drive depends on the peak - season demand, while near - term supply increment still exerts pressure [4][10]. - Geopolitical fluctuations have intensified. The asphalt futures market shows a pattern of following the fluctuations of crude oil but with weaker upward momentum. After the Spring Festival, the rigid demand in various regions has not yet started to recover, and the supply of major refineries is expected to increase. The near - term supply - demand fundamentals of asphalt are relatively loose on a month - on - month basis. There are still medium - term expectations of raw material shortages and cost increases. Attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery of demand and raw material consumption [5][42]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In February, the asphalt futures market followed the trend of crude oil costs but with weaker upward momentum. The price of near - term asphalt was suppressed by factors such as the stagnation of rigid demand during the Spring Festival holiday. The first - wave drive of the contradiction between the shortage of Venezuelan raw materials and cost increase was realized in early January, and the subsequent expectations are reflected in the far - term peak - season futures prices of asphalt. The market expects that domestic refineries' low - cost raw material inventories can still be used for 1 to 2 months. The purchase and transaction discounts of Venezuelan crude oil in countries such as India are around - 9 to - 6 US dollars per barrel, with increased costs compared to before the Venezuelan incident. A domestic refinery purchased Canadian Cold Lake oil at a discount of - 5 US dollars per barrel at the end of January, leading to an increase in raw material costs [4][10]. 2. Supply Overview - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the estimated asphalt production in China from January to February 2026 is about 4.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons or 4%. Among them, the asphalt production of PetroChina refineries from January to February was 640,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 80,000 tons or 15%; that of Sinopec refineries was 860,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 230,000 tons or 21%; that of CNOOC refineries was 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 80,000 tons or 25%; and that of local refineries was 2.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 230,000 tons or 11% [14]. - The asphalt production plan of local refineries in February is about 1.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% compared to the production plan in January (statistics in mid - December), but a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons or 20%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the user's提货 rhythm was affected, and some refineries mainly produced residual oil due to limited raw material supply, resulting in a certain reduction in asphalt production. However, some refineries have plans to resume production, and most local refineries have stable raw material supply, good asphalt production profits, and the need to deliver previous contracts, which support the overall increase in asphalt production of local refineries both month - on - month and year - on - year [14]. - In 2025, China's total asphalt production was 28.468 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.992 million tons or 12%. Among them, PetroChina increased by 1.333 million tons or 33%, CNOOC increased by 243,000 tons or 13%, local refineries increased by 2.266 million tons or 19%, and Sinopec decreased by 850,000 tons or 12% [15]. - In 2025, China's total asphalt imports were 3.928 million tons, an increase of 465,000 tons or 13.4% compared to 2024. The import volume from South Korea increased significantly, reaching 1.256 million tons, an increase of 378,000 tons compared to 2024. The import from the UAE still accounted for the largest proportion and increased by 193,000 tons to 1.398 million tons. The import volume from Iraq also increased significantly by 301,000 tons to 393,000 tons. The import sources from Southeast Asia decreased, while those from Northeast Asia and the Middle East increased [17]. 3. Demand Overview - In February 2026, the domestic asphalt market demand entered the traditional Spring Festival holiday mode, showing a trend of weakening first and then stabilizing, and gradually recovering after the festival. At the beginning of the month, there was still some rush - construction demand in the South, and the project construction in South China, Southwest Yunnan, and Guizhou was coming to an end, supporting the shipment of social inventories and driving up the price slightly. In the North, the rigid demand basically stagnated, and only stockpiling in warehouses was carried out in Shandong, North China, etc., with few spot transactions. From the middle of the month, the terminal projects and transportation across the country gradually came to a standstill, the market demand dropped to the lowest point, the trading atmosphere was cold, traders and downstream users mostly took holidays and withdrew from the market, and the refineries' shipments slowed down, entering the inventory accumulation stage [26]. - The refineries' shipment volume was at a medium level in the same period. The shipment volume in the week of February 12 was 437,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,000 tons or 9%, and a year - on - year decrease of 46,000 tons or 10%. - The terminal demand gradually stopped in February due to the Spring Festival, reaching the lowest level of the year. The operating rates of road modified asphalt and waterproofing membrane both dropped to 0% in the week of February 20, a decrease of about more than twenty percentage points compared to the previous month. During the Spring Festival holiday last year (at the end of January), the operating rates also dropped to 0. The capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt and building asphalt also dropped to the lowest levels of the year and were at a low level in the same period [26]. 4. Inventory and Valuation - In February 2026, in the northern regions such as Northeast, North China, and Northwest, winter - storage resources were stably stored in warehouses. In the southern Yangtze River Delta and South China regions, there were continuous arrivals of imported and domestic shipping resources. During the Spring Festival holiday, the storage in social inventories did not completely stop, and the inventory level increased after the festival compared to before. At the beginning of the month, thanks to the support of the rush - construction demand in the South and the short - term shutdown of major refineries in East China, the refineries' inventory dropped to a low level of 23.62%. In the middle and late ten - day periods, as the holiday approached, the demand stagnated, the logistics was restricted, the refineries' shipments generally slowed down, and the inventory began to stabilize and rise. However, the low overall operating rate limited the inventory accumulation range, and the refineries' inventory rate rose to 27.87% at the end of the month [30]. - After the Spring Festival, as downstream projects resume work one after another, the rigid demand will be gradually released, which is beneficial for the social inventories to start the destocking process. The large stock of social inventory resources that arrived during the holiday needs time to be digested in the short term, which may put some pressure on the price. On the refinery side, although some refineries plan to resume production, the initial operating rate will increase slowly, and the current refinery inventory pressure is generally controllable. If the terminal demand recovery falls short of expectations, the refineries' inventory may face the risk of further accumulation. Overall, the market in March will mainly focus on digesting the existing social inventories, and the inventory inflection point may appear in the middle and late ten - day periods [30]. - In terms of the cost side, in February, the Iran conflict continued to ferment, and the crude oil price fluctuated greatly following the attitude of the US - Iran negotiations but showed an upward trend. The oscillation center of the Brent main contract rose from 63 US dollars per barrel in January to about 68 US dollars per barrel. According to the current global market logistics and transaction information of Venezuelan crude oil, the purchase and transaction discounts of countries such as India are around - 9 to - 6 US dollars per barrel, with increased costs compared to before the Venezuelan incident. A domestic refinery purchased Canadian Cold Lake oil at a discount of - 5 US dollars per barrel at the end of January, leading to an increase in raw material costs. As of February 24, the asphalt processing profit was - 199 yuan per ton, a decrease of about 118 yuan per ton or 145% compared to the end of January [32]. - In terms of the basis, the near - term asphalt futures price was suppressed by factors such as the stagnation of rigid demand during the Spring Festival, and its upward amplitude was less than that of crude oil. The raw material shortage and cost increase were mostly priced in the far - term prices, and the near - term asphalt main contract price decreased slightly compared to the previous month. The spot market price remained stable, and the basis increased. The basis in East China increased by 106 to - 68 yuan per ton compared to the end of January; the basis in South China increased by 116 to - 38 yuan per ton; the basis in Shandong increased by 116 to 82 yuan per ton [32][34]. 5. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Geopolitical fluctuations have intensified. The asphalt futures market shows a pattern of following the fluctuations of crude oil but with weaker upward momentum. After the Spring Festival, the rigid demand in various regions has not yet started to recover, and the supply of major refineries is expected to increase. The near - term supply - demand fundamentals of asphalt are relatively loose on a month - on - month basis. There are still medium - term expectations of raw material shortages and cost increases. Attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery of demand and raw material consumption [42]. - Strategy recommendations: - Unilateral: Go long on BU2606 on dips and pay attention to geopolitical risks. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see.

Group 1 - The shipping European index has significantly declined, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market, with the main contract dropping by 5.19% to 1236 points [20][35] - The rebar steel inventory has increased to 8.006 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 845,600 tons, while rebar production decreased by 52,800 tons, a decline of 3.10% [11][27] - Domestic soda ash manufacturers have reported a total inventory of 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 30,640 tons, representing a rise of 19.29% [11][28] Group 2 - The manganese silicon main contract has seen a notable increase, closing at 5,918 yuan per ton, with a rise of 2.85%, supported by strong cost support from factories [33][34] - The coking coal main contract has experienced a decline of 2.46%, closing at 1,090 yuan per ton, due to increased supply and pressure on demand from steel mills [21][36] - The palm oil prices have remained strong throughout January, indicating a potential short-term structural bottom despite facing challenges from the delayed implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate [11][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - International geopolitical conflicts continue to cause disruptions, leading to a continuous increase in international oil prices, which in turn drives up the price of propane. This has raised the cost of propylene, and combined with the support from the supply - demand fundamentals, it has boosted the propylene futures price. On the supply side, there is a slight expected increase in propylene supply, but the actual return of major PDH plants under profit pressure needs attention. On the demand side, there is still rigid demand from downstream industries after the holiday, but the demand may be pressured due to high propylene prices. The future trend of propylene is mainly driven by the cost of crude oil and propane, the maintenance status of major PDH plants, and the downstream demand and production resumption under cost pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract is 6322 yuan/ton (-22), the spot price in East China is 6550 yuan/ton (+0), and in North China is 6525 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in East China is 228 yuan/ton (+22), and in Shandong is 203 yuan/ton (+22). The propylene operating rate is 73% (+0%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 222 US dollars/ton (+1), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 90 US dollars/ton (+8), the import profit is -345 yuan/ton (+38), and the in - plant inventory is 45170 tons (+1840) [1] - Downstream of propylene: The operating rate of PP powder is 22% (-3.94%), with a production profit of -270 yuan/ton (+5); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 80% (+8%), with a production profit of -2 yuan/ton (+140); the operating rate of n - butanol is 88% (+2%), with a production profit of 393 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of octanol is 99% (+4%), with a production profit of -70 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 86% (+2%), with a production profit of 300 yuan/ton (+100); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 75% (+3%), with a production profit of -1246 yuan/ton (+98); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 89% (+0%), with a production profit of -834 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: The Wanhua Penglai PDH plant has restarted and increased production, while the Juzhengyuan Phase II, Jinneng Phase II, and Zhongjing PDH plants are planned to continue maintenance. Some PDH plants in Shandong had short - term shutdowns during the holiday. There is a slight expected increase in propylene supply, but the actual return of major PDH plants under profit pressure needs attention [2] - Demand side: After the holiday, some downstream industries have gradually restocked. There is still rigid demand, but due to the high propylene price, the downstream cost is significantly pressured, and the demand may be affected after profit compression. For example, the purchase support from PP powder plants has declined, while the profit of butanol and octanol is good, and the restocking intention after the holiday may be strong [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran continues to drive up international oil prices, significantly boosting the cost support of polyolefins and the futures prices. For PE, the supply pressure remains due to high - level operation and limited planned maintenance, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. The cost support is strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory removal rhythm after the Spring Festival. For PP, the cost support is also rising, the supply pressure is acceptable in the short term, the demand is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the inventory removal rhythm after the downstream resumes work [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6777 yuan/ton (- 43), the PP main contract is 6720 yuan/ton (- 26), LL North China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+30), LL East China spot is 6780 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis is - 97 yuan/ton (+73), the LL East China basis is 3 yuan/ton (+43), and the PP East China basis is - 40 yuan/ton (+26) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 88.4% (+1.1%), and the PP operating rate is 75.9% (- 0.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is - 229.6 yuan/ton (- 143.8), the PP oil - based production profit is - 569.6 yuan/ton (- 143.8), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 487.9 yuan/ton (- 36.6) [1] - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is - 24.7 yuan/ton (+79.9), the PP import profit is - 332.5 yuan/ton (- 83.2), and the PP export profit is - 54.3 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 24.7% (- 5.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 20.3% (+0.0%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 24.1% (- 3.8%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 42.8% (- 17.5%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply pressure remains due to many short - term restarting devices, high - level operation, limited planned maintenance in the later first quarter, and increased standard product production. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, waiting for the peak season of PE mulching films to resume work and replenish stocks. The upstream inventory accumulates as expected after the festival, the downstream resumes work slowly, and the spot trading is light. The plastic's basic situation of strong supply and weak demand continues, and the cost support is strong in the short term [3] - **PP**: Geopolitical disturbances push up oil prices and the cost support. The PDH profit is slightly repaired but still in a deep loss. The overall PP operating rate rises limitedly, and the supply pressure is acceptable in the short term. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream operating rates continue to decline. The cost increase boosts the price in the short term [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long and hedge for LLDPE and PP at low prices [5] - **Inter - period**: Cautiously shrink the L05 - 09 spread at high prices [5] - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously shrink the L - PP spread at high prices [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Hold [7] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Short - term long positions at low prices [7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Hold on single - side trading, look for opportunities to establish cash - and - carry arbitrage when prices rise [7] - Iron Ore: Hold [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The "Shanghai Seven" real - estate policy and steel mill production restrictions in northern regions provided a short - term rebound drive for the steel futures market, but the spot market response was less than ideal. The inventory is expected to start decreasing after the third week, and the total inventory this year is estimated to be slightly higher than normal. The start of production and construction after the Spring Festival is expected to be favorable, and the "Two Sessions" may release policy signals [2] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese followed the slight rebound of the black metal market. The direct demand is expected to improve with the increase in hot metal production. However, the medium - term supply surplus pressure remains, and policy support and cost increases form price support [3][5] - The real - estate and "Two Sessions" production restriction news drove the coking coal and coke sector to rebound from a low level. The supply side will recover first, while the demand side is restricted by environmental protection and other factors. The rebound is considered a valuation repair and is not expected to be sustainable [5] - The real - estate favorable news, "Two Sessions" blast furnace production restrictions, and potential impact of Brazilian rain on iron ore shipments drove a slight rebound in the iron ore market. The upward drive is still insufficient, and the price is supported but limited by port inventory pressure [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On February 25, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2610, HC2610, etc. had different degrees of increase, with the highest increase of 2.24% for JM2609. The near - month contract closing prices also rose, with the highest increase of 2.32% for J2605 and JM2605. The cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and profits of different varieties also had corresponding changes [1] Spot Market - On February 25, the spot prices of Shanghai and other regions' steel products, billets, and iron ore had different degrees of change. For example, the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil increased by 70 yuan/ton, while the price of Qingdao super - special powder decreased by 6 yuan/ton. The basis of different varieties also changed [1] Steel - The "Shanghai Seven" real - estate policy and steel mill production restrictions in northern regions drove the futures price to rebound on Wednesday, but the spot market response was not ideal. The inventory is in the process of accumulation and is expected to start decreasing after the third week. The total inventory this year is estimated to be slightly higher. The start of production and construction after the Spring Festival is expected to be favorable, and the "Two Sessions" may release policy signals [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - They followed the slight rise of the black metal market. The direct demand is expected to improve with the increase in hot metal production. The alloy plants' overall profit is under pressure but has improved. The production and start - up rate are lower than last year, and the supply surplus pressure remains. The cost support is strengthened, and the industrial policy affects supply [3][5] Coking Coal and Coke - The real - estate and "Two Sessions" production restriction news drove the sector to rebound from a low level. The domestic spot market has not started, the supply side will recover first, and the demand side is restricted by environmental protection and other factors. The rebound is a valuation repair and is not expected to be sustainable. The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract, and it is recommended to establish cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price rises [5] Iron Ore - The real - estate favorable news, "Two Sessions" blast furnace production restrictions, and potential impact of Brazilian rain on shipments drove a slight rebound. The upward drive is insufficient, and the price is supported but limited by port inventory pressure [6]

Core Viewpoint - The PP market in South China is experiencing weak fluctuations due to a combination of cost support and weakening supply-demand dynamics, with a slight recovery observed post-holiday driven by high raw material prices and futures market performance [3][10][23] Supply Side Analysis - Since 2026, there has been no new capacity release, but the number of operational PP units has gradually increased in February, leading to a supply increase expectation. As of the week before the Spring Festival, only three PP units were offline in South China, with a total capacity of approximately 750,000 tons. Production increased by 5.07% week-on-week during the last week before the holiday [5][17] - Despite the increase in supply, the market remains under pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels, limiting the support from the supply side [5][17] Demand Side Analysis - In early February, downstream demand was stable, with operating rates for major PP downstream sectors such as plastic weaving and injection molding remaining relatively unchanged. However, as the holiday approached, demand weakened significantly, with operating rates dropping to 28% for plastic weaving and injection molding by the second week of February [7][19] - Post-holiday, downstream factories have ample raw material and finished product inventories, leading to a cautious purchasing pace and limiting potential market price increases [19] Cost Analysis - Rising prices of crude oil and propane have significantly strengthened the cost support for PP in February. As of February 12, the cost of oil-based PP was 7,201 yuan/ton, up 3.15% from the beginning of the month, while PDH-based PP cost was 7,746 yuan/ton, up 3.47% [8][20] - The high raw material prices are expected to provide a floor for the PP market, even as downstream recovery is slow [20][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention overall industry - wide investment ratings. Instead, it provides trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, rubber has a trend intensity of 1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend; while many commodities like synthetic rubber, LLDPE (in some cases), and methanol have a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral trend [4][7][10]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market conditions, and price trends of multiple energy - chemical commodities. Each commodity has its own unique supply - demand situation, cost factors, and external influencing factors. For instance, some commodities are affected by raw material price fluctuations, while others are influenced by seasonal demand changes, production capacity adjustments, and geopolitical events [10][14][20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Rubber - **Price Trend**: Expected to be oscillating strongly. The main contract's price increased on both the day and night sessions, with the day - closing price rising from 17,030 yuan/ton to 17,240 yuan/ton, and the night - closing price from 17,180 yuan/ton to 17,315 yuan/ton. The open - interest also increased [4]. - **Market Conditions**: After the Spring Festival, most tire enterprises resumed production as planned, with semi - steel tire orders in February better than those of all - steel tires. Market orders are better than last year, and trading is expected to improve [6]. Synthetic Rubber - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate downward. The main contract's price decreased, with the day - closing price dropping from 13,140 yuan/ton to 13,045 yuan/ton, and the open - interest also decreasing [7]. - **Market Conditions**: As of February 25, 2026, domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber inventory increased significantly compared to before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, with the upper pressure coming from the weakening fundamentals and the lower support from international energy prices and international butadiene prices [8][9]. LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Crude oil provides strong cost support, but its own supply - demand pattern is average. After the holiday, the demand for mulch films is expected to improve, and the packaging film industry will gradually recover. The supply - side contradictions are not significant for now [10][11]. - **PP**: The C3 raw material is strong, and PDH maintenance is still high. There is no new production capacity before the 2605 contract, and the supply - demand game among existing capacities intensifies. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [10][11]. Caustic Soda - **Price Trend**: The near - month delivery pressure is high, but the cost still provides support. The 05 - contract futures price is 2167 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 167 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Conditions**: During the Spring Festival, liquid chlorine was weak, which supported the caustic soda price. After the festival, due to high inventory, the short - term sharp increase space is limited. The market will first deal with the delivery pressure and then consider future production reduction expectations and improved downstream demand [14]. Pulp - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate. The main contract's price had a slight increase during the day session and a decrease during the night session. The open - interest decreased [19]. - **Market Conditions**: The futures market oscillated at a high level, and the spot market remained stable after the price increase. The demand side is favorable, but there is also pressure from port inventory accumulation. The price of household paper is expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to the inventory and downstream procurement sentiment [20][21]. Glass - **Price Trend**: The original sheet price is stable. The futures price increased slightly, with the 05 - contract closing at 1064 yuan/ton, up 1.53% [23]. - **Market Conditions**: After the Spring Festival, domestic float glass factories plan to raise prices, but the downstream market starts slowly. The implementation of the new price needs further follow - up [23]. Methanol - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate. The main contract's price decreased, with the closing price dropping from 2285 yuan/ton to 2249 yuan/ton [26]. - **Market Conditions**: The spot price index decreased slightly. The port inventory increased slightly. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, with the upper pressure at 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton and the lower support at 2100 - 2150 yuan/ton [28][29]. Urea - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate in the short - term. The main contract's price decreased, with the closing price dropping from 1855 yuan/ton to 1838 yuan/ton [31]. - **Market Conditions**: As of February 25, 2026, the total inventory of urea enterprises increased significantly. In the short - term, the futures price will enter an oscillating pattern, and the medium - term focus is on the start of the grass - roots market [32][33]. Styrene - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The prices of each contract decreased slightly [34]. - **Market Conditions**: During the Spring Festival, the overseas styrene price was strong, and the domestic port inventory increased slightly. In the short - term, it will oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the destocking amplitude after March and the restart progress of marginal devices [35]. Soda Ash - **Price Trend**: The spot market has little change. The futures price increased, with the 05 - contract closing at 1191 yuan/ton, up 2.58% [37]. - **Market Conditions**: The domestic soda ash market is stable, with enterprises' device operation oscillating and downstream demand in a wait - and - see state. In the short - term, the market will adjust weakly and stably [37]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Supply tightened, and the night - session price soared. The prices of each contract had different degrees of increase and decrease [40]. - **Propylene**: Supply and demand remained tight, and the spot price was stable. The prices of each contract also had different degrees of increase and decrease [40]. - **Market Conditions**: Saudi Arabia cancelled the FOB loading plan from March 1 - 24 due to a facility failure, which led to a sharp rise in the international paper - cargo price. There are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [45][46]. PVC - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The 05 - contract futures price is 4963 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 243 yuan/ton [48]. - **Market Conditions**: The PVC market's high - production and high - inventory structure remains unchanged. In 2026, the supply - side production reduction during the maintenance peak season may exceed expectations, which is beneficial to the profit repair of the chlor - alkali industry [48]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price rebounded, and the weakness was temporarily alleviated. The prices of each contract decreased [50]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price dropped from a high level, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas market slightly shrank. The prices of each contract also decreased [50]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Price Trend**: Should be treated with an oscillating mindset. The prices of each contract decreased [52]. - **Market Conditions**: The short - term price was under pressure due to Maersk's price cut in the 11th week of March. In the medium - and long - term, the uncertainty lies in the resumption of shipping routes. Different contracts have different investment suggestions [61][63][64]. Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Staple Fiber**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The futures price decreased, the spot price was mostly stable, and the downstream demand was weak [66]. - **Bottle Chip**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The upstream polyester raw materials oscillated and decreased, the factory price was mostly stable, and the market trading atmosphere improved [67]. Offset Printing Paper - **Price Trend**: It is recommended to wait and see. The spot price and cost of each paper type remained stable, and the futures price had a slight decrease [69]. - **Market Conditions**: The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets were stable, the market started slowly after the holiday, and the trading was light. The industry was in a wait - and - see mood [70][72]. Pure Benzene - **Price Trend**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The prices of each contract decreased slightly, and the spot price increased slightly [74]. - **Market Conditions**: As of February 24, 2026, the port inventory of pure benzene increased. The market atmosphere was average on the day, and the trading volume decreased [75][76].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: Cost support is strong, and PX is expected to rise after the holiday. Go long on PXN and engage in 5 - 9 calendar spread trading. The PX - naphtha spread has recovered to $327/ton. The PX operating rate remains high, and the polyester operating rate is gradually recovering. The industry may enter a positive feedback pattern [1][7]. - PTA: Supported by costs, the short - term trend is strong. The PTA futures opened with a catch - up increase on the first day. It accumulates inventory from January to February and enters a de - stocking pattern from March. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 calendar spread. The downstream polyester price has increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the industry may enter a positive feedback pattern [1][7]. - MEG: It is in a range - bound market. Go long on PTA and short on MEG. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate remains high, and it is in a significant inventory accumulation pattern from February to March. The price has limited downside but the upside is not yet open, so maintain range - bound operations [1][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 7432, 5312, 3747, 6722, and 488.3 respectively, with changes of - 46, - 40, 10, - 68, and - 5, and percentage changes of - 0.62%, - 0.75%, 0.27%, - 1.00%, and - 1.01% [2]. - **Calendar Spreads**: The closing prices of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 calendar spreads on the previous day were 20, 14, - 118, - 98, and 5 respectively, with changes of - 6, - 18, - 6, - 32, and 5.6 compared to the day before [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent on the previous day were $928.67/ton, 5285 yuan/ton, 3658 yuan/ton, $616/ton, and $70.78/barrel respectively, with changes of - 4, 0, 10, 2.5, and - 0.55 [2]. - **Spot Processing Margins**: The spot processing margins of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil on the previous day were $297.55/ton, 412.68 yuan/ton, 106.87 yuan/ton, 240.63 yuan/ton, and - $4.34/ton respectively, with changes of - 2.66, - 17.01, 81.21, 40.06, and 0 [2]. 3.2 Market Trends - **PX**: On February 25, the PX price declined, and the raw material trend was generally weak. The negotiation and transaction level of PX also fell after rising. The spot transaction atmosphere was okay, and the 4 - and 5 - month spot maintained a - 2 C structure. The floating price fluctuated within a narrow range [3]. - **Polyester**: A 500,000 - ton polyester plant in Ningbo is being heated up and is planned to restart tomorrow, with products expected around the Lantern Festival. Another 250,000 - ton polyester plant in Ningbo is planned to start heating up on March 1 and feed on March 4. A large - scale polyester industrial yarn plant in Huzhou is restarting, and a 200,000 - ton polyester plant in Huzhou restarted on February 24. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on February 25 were sluggish, with an average sales rate of about 20% by 3:30 p.m. The sales rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber plants was highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 51% by 3:00 p.m [5][6]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **PX**: The supply side has a high operating rate, with the Asian PX operating rate at around 84%. South Korea's PX exports increased significantly in the first 20 days of February. The demand side has a PTA operating rate of around 75%, and the polyester operating rate is gradually recovering [7]. - **PTA**: It accumulates inventory from January to February and enters a de - stocking pattern from March. The downstream polyester price has increased, and the industry may enter a positive feedback pattern [7]. - **MEG**: The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate remains high, with the coal - based plant operating rate reaching 83%. It accumulates inventory during the Spring Festival, and is in a significant inventory accumulation pattern from February to March [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefins slightly declined. For linear LL, Sinopec kept prices stable while PetroChina raised some prices by 100. For拉丝PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina kept prices stable. During the long - holiday, the international crude oil price center moved up, strengthening the boost expectation for chemicals. Due to the repeated heat from the Middle East, the cost support for polyolefins has increased. In terms of downstream demand, the terminal procurement rhythm after resuming work should be gradually monitored. Overall, a buy - hedging approach should be adopted when prices are low [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of January, May, and September contracts were 6860, 6777, and 6847 respectively, with price drops of -23, -43, and -31 and declines of -0.33%, -0.63%, and -0.45% respectively. The trading volumes were 478, 340318, and 37871 respectively, and the open interests were 1579, 507855, and 74303 respectively, with increases of 271, 25621, and 6623 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 83, -70, and -13 respectively [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of January, May, and September contracts were 6710, 6720, and 6743 respectively, with price drops of -15, -26, and -24 and declines of -0.22%, -0.39%, and -0.35% respectively. The trading volumes were 154, 273883, and 35454 respectively, and the open interests were 3295, 479778, and 118069 respectively, with increases of 71, 7385, and 3528 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -10, -23, and 33 respectively [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2251 yuan/ton, 6525 yuan/ton, 650 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6610 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Spot Market**: The current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6650 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 6850 yuan/ton respectively [2] Information and Comment - On Wednesday (February 25), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for April 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 65.42 dollars per barrel, down 0.21 dollars or 0.32% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 65.12 - 66.6 dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for April 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 70.85 dollars per barrel, up 0.08 dollars or 0.11% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 70.44 - 71.76 dollars [2]