Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is a rise, the medium - term view is a strong - biased oscillation, and the intraday view is a weak - biased oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment persists and the steel price oscillates upwards [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is still prone to pressure during the off - season, but the current industrial contradictions are not significant. The expectation of policy benefits boosts market sentiment, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, so the steel price continues the oscillatory upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, short - term is rising, medium - term is strong - biased oscillation, intraday is weak - biased oscillation. The view is to pay attention to the MA5 line support, with the core logic of persistent optimistic sentiment and rising steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The optimistic sentiment persists and the steel price rises strongly. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. The production of construction steel mills weakens, the rebar output declines continuously, and the supply contracts. However, the profit per ton of the variety is good and some varieties start to switch production, so the positive effect is not strong [3]. - The rebar demand also weakens. The high - frequency demand indicators remain at the low level in the same period in recent years, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The downstream industries have not improved, and the weak demand is likely to put pressure on the steel price [3]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is still prone to pressure during the off - season, but the current industrial contradictions are not significant. The expectation of policy benefits boosts market sentiment, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, so the steel price continues the oscillatory upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, steel prices will maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The medium - term strategy is still to go long on dips. The prices of iron ore and coking coal and coke are also expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, against the backdrop of multiple policy expectations, the black - series commodities rose across the board. In the industry, inventory accumulation in the off - season was less than expected, demand showed certain resilience, and the increase in hot metal production provided continuous support to the raw material end. Both futures and spot prices rose [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: The weekly production of rebar was 209.06 million tons (down 3.51% week - on - week and 6.45% year - on - year), and that of hot - rolled coil was 321.14 million tons (down 0.62% week - on - week and 1.80% year - on - year). The blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar both decreased. The blast furnace weekly production of rebar was 182.67 million tons (down 3.73% week - on - week and 8.82% year - on - year), and the electric furnace weekly production was 26.39 million tons (down 1.97% week - on - week and up 14.09% year - on - year) [15][17][22]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate remained stable at 83.46% (up 0.37% week - on - week and 1.16% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate increased to 65.08% (up 2.34% week - on - week and down 0.43% year - on - year) [27]. - **Profit**: The profit of rebar was + 171 yuan/ton (down 12.76% week - on - week and up 170 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the profit of hot - rolled coil was + 146 yuan/ton (up 2.82% week - on - week and up 151 yuan/ton year - on - year) [31]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar was 206.17 million tons (down 6.92% week - on - week and 9.18% year - on - year), and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.50 million tons (down 3.36% week - on - week and 24.97% year - on - year). The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil was 323.79 million tons (up 0.40% week - on - week and down 1.27% year - on - year) [36]. - **Inventory**: The total rebar inventory was 543.26 million tons (up 0.53% week - on - week and down 29.50% year - on - year), with the factory inventory at 173.1 million tons (down 4.30% week - on - week and 6.44% year - on - year) and the social inventory at 370.16 million tons (up 2.97% week - on - week and down 30.83% year - on - year). The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 342.91 million tons (down 0.77% week - on - week and 18.97% year - on - year), with the factory inventory at 77.31 million tons (down 0.64% week - on - week and 16.41% year - on - year) and the social inventory at 265.6 million tons (down 0.80% week - on - week and 20.56% year - on - year) [40][45]. - **Downstream Industries**: The weekly data showed that the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 9.48% week - on - week and 24.57% year - on - year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 51.47% week - on - week and 66.40% year - on - year. In June 2025, automobile production and sales reached 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 5.5% and 8.1% and year - on - year increases of 11.4% and 13.8% respectively. From January to June 2025, automobile production and sales reached 15.621 million and 15.653 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4% respectively [48][51]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 99.85 (up 1.75% week - on - week and down 4.46% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 24.79 million tons (down 0.77% week - on - week and up 4.05% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 23.712 million tons (down 10.93% week - on - week and 0.21% year - on - year) [58]. - **Demand**: The daily hot metal production was 2.4244 million tons (up 263,000 tons week - on - week and 279,000 tons year - on - year), the ore handling volume at 45 ports was 3.2274 million tons (up 1.01% week - on - week and 2.83% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.29 days (down 2.63% week - on - week and 6.99% year - on - year) [63]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 137.8521 million tons (up 0.14% week - on - week and down 9.78% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 88.2216 million tons (down 1.75% week - on - week and 4.46% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 22.94 days (down 1.88% week - on - week and up 9.03% year - on - year) [69]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.07% (up 0.64% week - on - week and down 2.25% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal washing plants was 62.85% (up 0.85% week - on - week and down 5.35% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 140,800 tons (up 260% week - on - week and 7.74% year - on - year) [75]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 43 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 76 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 73.01% (up 0.19% week - on - week and down 2.04% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke was 86.84% (down 0.21% week - on - week and 0.24% year - on - year) [84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 7.902 million tons (up 4.99% week - on - week and 4.01% year - on - year), the coking coal inventory of steel mills was 7.9093 million tons (up 1.05% week - on - week and 6.34% year - on - year), and the coking coal inventory at ports was 3.215 million tons (down 0.04% week - on - week and up 22.01% year - on - year) [90]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 555,500 tons (down 6.76% week - on - week and up 57.77% year - on - year), the coke inventory of steel mills was 6.3899 million tons (up 0.19% week - on - week and 15.72% year - on - year), and the coke inventory at ports was 1.9911 million tons (down 0.49% week - on - week and 1.60% year - on - year) [96]. - **Spot Price**: After the first round of coke price increase, the second round of increase has started. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1,300 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 620 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 1,030 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 770 yuan/ton year - on - year) [102]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar widened, and the 10 - 1 spread of rebar continued to shrink. The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore widened, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widened significantly [104][109].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Baocheng Futures Rebar Morning Report (July 21, 2025) [1] - Author: Tu Weihua [5] - Author's position: Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department [5] - Author's qualification: F3060359 (futures practice certificate), Z0011688 (investment consulting certificate) [5] Group 2: Investment Ratings - There is no report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 3: Core Views - For Rebar 2510, the short - term view is a rise, the medium - term view is oscillating strongly, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that expectations dominate the steel market, and steel prices will oscillate upwards [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are relatively under pressure. However, with low inventory and minor real - world contradictions, combined with the fermentation of policy -利好 expectations and strong raw materials providing cost support, steel prices are expected to continue the oscillating upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy implementation [3]. Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For Rebar 2510, short - term: rise; medium - term: oscillating strongly; intraday: oscillating weakly. The view is to pay attention to the MA5 line support, and the core logic is that expectations dominate the steel market and steel prices will oscillate upwards. The calculation of price changes and the definitions of rise, fall, and oscillation are provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment is strong, and weekend steel spot prices have risen significantly. The supply of rebar has contracted to a low level as construction steel mills' production has weakened, but the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the sustainability of production cuts is not strong. Rebar demand continues the seasonal weakness, with high - frequency demand indicators performing poorly and at a low level in recent years. The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are under pressure, but low inventory means minor real - world contradictions. Policy -利好 expectations and strong raw materials provide cost support, so steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate upwards, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [3]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 强现实与弱预期继续博弈，油价反弹偏空。从供需基本面看，当前呈现旺 | | 原油 | 反弹偏空 | 季强现实，全球原油库存处于低位，但随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，油价供给 | | | | 过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注供给端 OPEC 实际增产 | | | | 量与美国产量。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【510-530】 | | | | 成本端企稳，下游开工率提高，短线偏震荡，前期空单可止盈。成本端油 | | LPG | | 价企稳，美国丙烷处于消费淡季，供给相对充足；下游燃烧需求处于淡季， | | | 空单止盈 | 化工需求回升，PDH 开工率上升；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅 | | | | 下降，港口库存累库。策略：短线震荡，空单可止盈。PG【4050-4150】 | | | | 市场情绪好转，基本面暂无新利空出现，盘面在 7200 附近呈现一定支撑 | | | | 力度。供需偏弱，社会库存连续 3 周累库，月差、基差边际走弱。进口贸 | | L | 空头盘整 | 易商接盘态 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The cost of steel continues to rise, leading to another increase in the black market. The fundamentals of steel have minor contradictions and are slightly better than the seasonal performance, with effective raw material support [1]. - The iron ore price is oscillating upward due to the recovery of hot metal production. In the short term, the price rebounds, while in the long term, the supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose [3]. - The first round of price increases for coking coal and coke has fully landed, and the prices are oscillating strongly. The production enthusiasm of coke enterprises will increase, and attention should be paid to the demand in the off - season and the supply changes of coking coal [5][6]. - The supply of thermal coal at the pithead is continuously shrinking, and the port coal price is oscillating strongly. In the short term, the price is strong due to rising demand, while in the medium - long term, the supply pattern remains loose [8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, steel futures and spot prices showed a strong trend, with the hot - rolled coil futures main contract reaching a new high. The spot trading volume was 9.48 tons, and the basis continued to shrink [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - This week, the output of rebar decreased, demand weakened in the off - season, and inventory slightly increased. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand slightly increased. The fundamentals are slightly better than the seasonal performance, and raw material support is still effective [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Others: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, the iron ore futures price oscillated upward, and the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties continued to rise. The trading volume of national main port iron ore was 114.4 tons, a 14.40% increase, and the trading volume of forward - looking spot was 189.7 tons, a 24.80% increase. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 242.44 tons, an increase of 2.63 tons, and the profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, an increase of 0.43% [3]. Supply - Demand and Logic - This week, hot metal production recovered, and iron ore consumption showed good resilience. Port inventory slightly increased, and large - scale inventory slightly decreased. In the short term, the price rebounds, while in the long term, the supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Others: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke oscillated within a range. The first round of price increases for coke fully landed, the port clearance of imported coal slowly recovered, and inventory continued to decline [5]. Supply - Demand and Logic - For coke, production remained stable, inventory slightly decreased, and demand increased. Some coke enterprises are still in a loss state, but production enthusiasm will increase after the price increase. For coking coal, domestic coal mine复产 is slow, and the supply is relatively insufficient. Steel mills still have rigid demand [5][6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillation; Coke: Oscillation; Others: None [7] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In the production area, some coal mines stopped production due to waterlogging and safety inspections, and the price of some coal types increased by 5 - 10 yuan. At the port, the shipping cost increased, there was a structural shortage, and the market coal price increased steadily. The high - calorie Australian coal price was inverted, while the low - calorie Indonesian coal had a cost - performance advantage [8]. Supply - Demand and Logic - In July, with the increase in temperature, the downstream daily consumption increased, and the demand strengthened. In the short term, the price is oscillating strongly, while in the medium - long term, the supply pattern remains loose [8]. Strategy No strategy information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.80%, showing a pattern of increasing volume and decreasing positions. The supply - demand of rebar remained weak, and the fundamentals continued the seasonal weakness. However, the low inventory and policy expectations, along with strong raw materials, provided cost support. It was expected that the rebar price would continue to fluctuate and stabilize [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate rose with a daily increase of 1.23%, and both volume and positions expanded. The supply of hot - rolled coil decreased while the demand was resilient. The fundamentals improved, inventory decreased again, and policy expectations and strong raw materials supported the price. It was expected to run in a moderately strong oscillation, but the risk of weak external demand should be guarded against [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore was strong with a daily increase of 1.81%, and both volume and positions expanded. In the current supply - demand weak situation, the fundamentals of iron ore were weakly stable. Policy expectations and optimism supported the high - level and strong operation of ore prices, but the valuation was high, and a shift in the trading logic to the industrial side should be guarded against [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the output of major machinery and equipment in China showed different performances. The output of excavators, metal - cutting machine tools, and metal - forming machine tools increased significantly, with year - on - year growth of 12.4%, 13.5%, and 10.4% respectively. The output of small tractors decreased significantly, with a year - on - year decline of 15.8% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the output of four major household appliances in China was released. The output of washing machines increased by 10.3% year - on - year. The output of air conditioners increased by 5.5% year - on - year, the output of refrigerators remained flat year - on - year, and the output of color TVs decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [7]. - In the first half of 2025, China's rebar output was 98.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The output of medium - thick wide steel strips increased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the output of wire rods increased by 0.6% year - on - year [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The report provided a black metal spot quotation table, including prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, and prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The report presented a table of the main contract futures prices, including the closing price, increase or decrease, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, volume difference, open interest, and position difference of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, and iron ore [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report included charts of steel and iron ore inventory (rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore at 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines), steel mill production (247 sample steel mills' blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, profit - making steel mills' proportion, 87 independent electric furnace start - up rate, and 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profit and loss situation) [13][18][27]. 3.5 Future Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply - demand remained weak. The weekly output decreased by 7.60 tons week - on - week, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 15.33 tons week - on - week. Due to low inventory, policy expectations, and cost support from strong raw materials, the price was expected to continue to fluctuate and stabilize [36]. - Hot - rolled coil plate: The supply decreased by 2.00 tons week - on - week, and the demand was resilient with an increase of 1.28 tons week - on - week. The fundamentals improved, and the price was expected to run in a moderately strong oscillation, but the risk of weak external demand should be guarded against [37]. - Iron ore: Both supply and demand weakened. The terminal consumption of ore decreased, and the supply also contracted. Policy expectations supported the high - level and strong operation of ore prices, but a shift in the trading logic to the industrial side should be guarded against [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Cross - variety: Short coal - based profit [3] Core View - International crude oil prices are continuously declining with further decline expected, weakening the cost support for polyolefins. Upstream petrochemical plants' devices are restarting, increasing supply, while downstream demand remains in the off - season, resulting in a loose supply - demand balance [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Analyzed the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts and the basis between LL East China and the main contract, as well as PP East China and the main contract [1][8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 77.8% (-1.7%), PP operating rate is 76.6% (-0.8%). PE oil - based production profit is 167.1 yuan/ton (-5.0), PP oil - based production profit is -222.9 yuan/ton (-5.0), and PDH - based PP production profit is 245.0 yuan/ton (+52.5) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Compared the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, etc. [32][40][41] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is -177.5 yuan/ton (-44.5), PP import profit is -672.8 yuan/ton (-24.7), and PP export profit is 34.2 US dollars/ton (+3.0) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.6% (+0.5%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.1% (-0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (-0.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.6% (+0.3%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Analyzed the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [73][78][88]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, steel, energy, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and offers corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts falling, and the 2 - year contract rising. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy and Economy**: The State Council's executive meeting focused on strengthening domestic circulation, and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [8]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US PPI data in June was lower than expected [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The spot prices of steel products were reported at certain ranges [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: The important meeting at the beginning of the month led to expectations of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of iron ore were reported [14]. - **Supply - Demand**: Policy expectations boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high, and the short - term trend may turn to shock consolidation [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can look for low - buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply is increasing. The demand for coke is weak, but cost support exists [16]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The spot prices of ferroalloys were reported [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: The demand for ferroalloys has peaked in the short term, and the supply is still high. The price is under pressure, but the cost support is strengthening [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - value call options [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened lower and fluctuated, supported by the 10 - day moving average [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: The decrease in US active rigs and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions on Russia restrict price increases [21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward after a continuous decline [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, the spot discount has widened, and trade frictions are negative for prices [24]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [25]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The Shanghai spot price remained stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the demand is mixed. The inventory has decreased slightly [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may be in a strong - side shock, and consider medium - term long - buying opportunities [28][29]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The spot price decreased, and the basis remained stable [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the export is affected. The cost has decreased, and the profit has improved [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is in the bottom - shock stage [30][33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [34]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is limited, and the inventory is higher than expected [34]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term market is in shock, and a medium - term bullish view is recommended [34][35]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [36]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the cost support from crude oil is insufficient [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to crude oil price changes, and control risks [36]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate were reported [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the demand has weakened, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. The processing fee is at a low level, and future production cuts may increase [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at low levels, and control risks [37]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply, inventory, and demand data were reported [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure has been relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and there is support below [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost data were reported [39]. - **Supply - Demand**: The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, some factories are reducing production, and the processing fee is gradually recovering [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Be cautious about the processing - difference recovery space, pay attention to cost changes and production - cut efforts, and control risks [39]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 contract declined. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material price support is insufficient, the supply has decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand is improving [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to raw material price changes [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production and inventory data were reported [41]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is general, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve. The market hopes for macro - news support [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in a weak - stable shock [41]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production and market situation data were reported [42][43]. - **Supply - Demand**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. The price may rebound in the short term due to cost support [43]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price may rebound in the short term [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined. The production, inventory, and profit data were reported [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the market is affected by alumina price and supply. The overall support is limited [44][46]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term support is available, but the overall support is limited [44][46]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp rose slightly. The supply, demand, and price data were reported [47][48]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is expanding, the demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market sentiment has improved [50]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high. The price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity reduction [51]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should not chase the high price [51]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, supported by the 60 - day moving average. The spot price was reported [52]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, which has led to the return of refined copper and depressed the price. The price is expected to stabilize [52]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term long - buying for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined. The supply and demand data were reported [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is tight, the consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be strong - side shock [53][54]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong - side shock [54]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply and demand data were reported [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: The consumption expectation is good, but the actual consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The spot prices were reported [56]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US soybean good - rate has increased, the domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil - mill profit is low, and the demand is mixed [56]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels; consider call options for soybean oil after the price decline [56][57]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, following the trend of soybean oil futures. The export and inventory data were reported [58]. - **Supply - Demand**: The export has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium - high level [58]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed declined. The import and inventory data were reported [60]. - **Supply - Demand**: The import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [60][61]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The US and domestic supply - demand data were reported [62][63]. - **Supply - Demand**: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, the domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is increasing [63]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [63][65]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian and Indian production and inventory data were reported [66]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Brazilian production increase expectation has decreased, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp [66]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in the range - shock stage, and it is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. Apple - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly. The production and inventory data were reported [68][69]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly [68][69]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [68][70]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs declined. The regional price trends and supply - demand data were reported [71]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [71][73]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and pay attention to the weight - reduction in the south [71][74]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The production and inventory data were reported [75]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price may be under pressure in the short term [75][76]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The spot prices and inventory data were reported [77]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, the consumption is recovering, the inventory pressure is decreasing, and the import may increase [77][78]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for corn; corn starch follows the corn market [77][78]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs rose. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [79][80]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overseas export willingness has decreased, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [80][81]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [81].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US economic outlook is dim, and the upward momentum of the US dollar index is insufficient, which is favorable for gold. Gold is expected to have a slightly bullish mid - term wide - range oscillation. [2] - Crude oil is in a multi - empty stalemate stage. After the summer demand peak, there may be an oversupply situation. With OPEC+ maintaining an increasing production stance, crude oil has an expected supply increase, and it is bearish at high levels. [2] - Steel prices may have a narrow - range adjustment in the short term due to weakened downstream construction demand and cost support. [4] - Coal prices are likely to be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, but the increase rate will slow down. [4] - Manganese silicon prices are expected to follow the sector in the short term, with limited cost support and increasing difficulty in destocking in the future. [5] - Pig prices are expected to continue a weak adjustment in the short term, and interval trading is recommended. [6] - Glass is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long when it retraces. [7] - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and waiting and seeing or interval trading is recommended. [9] - It is recommended to go long on rapeseed meal at low prices, and pay attention to relevant policy and market changes. [10] - Plastic is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing is recommended. [11] - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing or short - term long when it retraces is recommended. [12] - For long - term national bonds, pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw and the Politburo meeting in July. For short - term national bonds, the short - term upward momentum may be stronger than that of long - term bonds. [13][14] - The upward momentum of silver weakens, and pay attention to the relationship between gold and silver prices. [14] - For PTA, a short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended. [15] - Natural rubber is expected to oscillate with a seasonal increase in supply and weak demand. [15] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that from late May to early July, economic activity slightly increased, but uncertainty is high, and the economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. The weak US economic outlook and insufficient upward momentum of the US dollar index are favorable for gold. [2] Crude Oil - In the week of July 11, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1000 barrels to 1.3375 million barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels. After the summer demand peak, there may be an oversupply, and OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance. [2] Steel - On July 16, domestic steel oscillated weakly. The ex - factory tax - included price of common billets in Qian'an, Tangshan remained stable at 2950 yuan/ton. Three steel mills lowered the ex - factory prices of construction steel by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. High - temperature weather affects downstream construction, weakening steel demand, but cost supports steel prices. [4] Coking Coal - The开工 rate of 110 sample coal washing plants is 62.85%, an increase of 0.53% from the previous period, and the daily average output increased by 0.79 million tons. Coal prices have risen significantly since the end of June, but downstream resistance to high - price coal and profit - taking in the trading link may slow down the increase rate. [4] Manganese Silicon - The开工 rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 40.55%, an increase of 0.21% from last week, and the daily average output increased by 310 tons. The supply of Australian ore is recovering, and the ore price may decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon tends to be loose in the future. [5] Pig - On July 16, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.61 yuan/kg, a 0.6% decrease from the previous day. High - temperature season, high feed cost, and weak terminal demand lead to a weak adjustment in pig prices. [6] Glass - The average price of float glass is 1179 yuan/ton, the开工 rate is 75.68%, and the total inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 2.87% month - on - month. Terminal demand is weak, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. [7] Palm Oil - From July 1 to 15, 2025, the yield of palm fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 17.95%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the palm oil production increased by 17.06%. The price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term. [9] Rapeseed Meal - As of the 28th week of 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions increased by 2.54 million tons compared with last week. The spot market sentiment is optimistic, but the addition ratio in feed is low. [10] Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 7258 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The weekly production decreased by 0.3%, and the production enterprise inventory increased by 2.62% week - on - week. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. [11] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 9.92% week - on - week, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.46 million tons. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. [12] National Bonds - For long - term national bonds, expanding domestic demand is emphasized, and the stock - bond seesaw and the Politburo meeting in July are key. For short - term national bonds, the central bank's net investment is favorable for the bond market, and the short - term upward momentum may be stronger. [13][14] Silver - US PPI data in June was lower than expected, weakening the upward momentum of silver. Pay attention to whether gold and silver prices move in sync. [14] PTA - The CFR price of PX is 836 US dollars/ton, and the price of PTA in East China is 4718 yuan/ton. Polyester inventory accumulates, and demand drags down the spot price. A short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended. [15] Rubber - The price of raw rubber in Thailand is 54.3 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber is 48.35 Thai baht/kg. In the first half of 2025, rubber exports from Cote d'Ivoire increased by 11.8% year - on - year, while those from Cambodia decreased by 20% year - on - year. Supply increases seasonally, and demand is weak. [15]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 17 日 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2508 | 4,111 | 0.00% | 4,072 | -0.95% | | 期 货 | PG2509 | 4,018 | 0.15% | 3,988 | -0.75% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2508 | 64,308 | -17532 | 39,633 | -5205 | | | PG2509 | 27,358 | -7590 | 52,728 | 3500 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 价 差 | 广州国产气对08合约价差 | 459 | | 469 | | | | 广州进口气对08合约价差 | 489 | | 499 | | | | | 本 周 | | 上 周 | | | 产业链重要 | PDH开工率 | 60.9% | | 65.5% | | | 价格数据 | MTBE开工率 | 66.9% | | 6 ...