Core Insights - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2023, primarily driven by rising food prices [3][6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, with the decline in PPI narrowing compared to the previous month [4][15] CPI Analysis - The CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, influenced by increased demand for consumer goods as the New Year approached [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months [3] - Food prices rose by 1.1% year-on-year, with significant increases in fresh vegetables (18.2%) and fresh fruits (4.4%), contributing to the overall CPI increase [3][9] PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month increase of 0.2% marks the third consecutive month of growth, with improvements in supply-demand dynamics leading to price increases in certain sectors [4][5] - Year-on-year, the PPI decline of 1.9% reflects a narrowing of the decrease, with specific industries like coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing showing price increases [5][15] - Input prices for industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with notable declines in various raw materials, while prices for non-ferrous metals increased significantly [19][20] Price Changes by Category - In December, food and beverage prices rose by 0.8% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.24 percentage points to the CPI [9] - Among various categories, prices for other goods and services saw significant increases, with household services rising by 1.2% and other consumer goods increasing by 17.4% [9][11] - Conversely, transportation and housing prices experienced declines, with transportation costs decreasing by 2.6% year-on-year [9][14]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, with the annual CPI remaining stable compared to the previous year [1][2] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by an increase in food prices, which rose by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the CPI increase [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months [3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month in December 2025, marking the third consecutive month of growth, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.9% [4][6] - The month-on-month PPI increase was influenced by improved supply-demand dynamics and seasonal demand increases in certain industries, such as coal and gas production [4][5] - Input factors led to a divergence in price trends for domestic non-ferrous metals and oil-related industries, with non-ferrous metal prices rising due to international price increases, while oil-related prices fell due to declining international oil prices [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a moderate recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8% in December 2025, marking the highest level since March 2023 [2][6][7] - The increase in CPI is significantly driven by food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and fruits, which saw year-on-year price increases of 18.2% and 4.4%, respectively [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a narrowing year-on-year decline of 1.9% in December, indicating positive changes in certain industries due to improved market competition [4][5] Group 2 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months, reflecting a stable recovery in demand [3][6] - The overall price stability in 2025, with CPI remaining flat year-on-year and PPI declining by 2.6%, suggests that market supply and demand relationships are improving [6][7] - Experts predict that in 2026, with more proactive macroeconomic policies, CPI is expected to rise steadily, supported by recovering consumer demand and structural adjustments in the economy [7][8]

Group 1 - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month but decreased by 1.9% year-on-year [1][2] - The CPI's year-on-year growth rate expanded by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, reaching the highest level since March 2023, primarily driven by an increase in food prices, which rose by 1.1% [1][3] - Key food items such as fresh vegetables and fruits saw price increases of 18.2% and 4.4%, respectively, contributing approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI's year-on-year increase [1][2] Group 2 - The month-on-month CPI increase was influenced by rising prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, which rose by 0.6%, contributing about 0.16 percentage points to the CPI [2] - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 1.9% showed a narrowing of the decline by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with significant price reductions in coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing [3] - Prices in sectors such as external storage devices and biomass liquid fuels increased by 15.3% and 9.0%, respectively, indicating a growth in new productive forces [3]

Core Insights - The inflation data for December 2025 shows a year-on-year CPI increase of 0.8%, up from 0.7% in the previous month, and a PPI decrease of -1.9%, improving from -2.2% [1][4] CPI Analysis - The CPI increase is primarily driven by rising gold prices, which have a significant impact on core goods CPI, while excluding gold, the core goods CPI remains low [2][11] - The food CPI rose by 1.1%, with a notable increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, largely due to supply constraints affecting fresh vegetables and fruits [16][38] - The core service CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1%, influenced by weak rental demand, which has led to a decline in rental prices [22][48] PPI Analysis - The PPI increase is mainly attributed to rising copper prices, which rose by 7.9% month-on-month, contributing positively to the PPI [1][4] - Other commodity prices and downstream PPI performance remain weak, with the overall PPI showing a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1][4] - The decline in international oil prices negatively impacted domestic oil prices, contributing to a PPI decrease of -0.05% [1][4] Future Outlook - The effectiveness of anti-involution policies in stimulating downstream prices is crucial for future PPI performance, as commodity prices have only explained about 30% of PPI fluctuations in the past three years [30] - The high gold prices and improvements in service consumption may support a rise in core CPI, but the high base effect from the Spring Festival may limit the CPI increase in January [30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that multiple price indicators in China showed a rebound in December 2025, with CPI reaching its highest year-on-year growth since March 2023 and PPI experiencing its lowest year-on-year decline since September 2024 [1][3][5] - In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, a rise of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% after a previous decline of 0.1% [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, remained steady at 1.2% for the third consecutive month, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in essential consumer goods [1][3] Group 2 - The increase in CPI was attributed to three main factors: rising vegetable and fruit prices due to previous rainy weather, the impact of year-end consumption promotion policies, and an increase in international gold prices affecting industrial consumer goods [1][2] - In December 2025, food prices rose by 1.1% year-on-year, with fresh vegetable and fruit prices increasing by 18.2% and 4.4% respectively, contributing significantly to the CPI increase [2][3] - The PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [3][4] Group 3 - The overall trend of PPI in December 2025 was positive, benefiting from the effects of "anti-involution" actions, which improved the supply-demand relationship in domestic industrial products [3][4] - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw price increases, indicating a recovery in market competition and production capacity management [4][5] - The overall price level in China is expected to remain low in 2026, providing room for potential monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts [5][6]

Inflation Data - December CPI increased to 0.8% year-on-year, the highest in 34 months, up 0.1 percentage points from November[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year, with a slight decrease in the non-gold core CPI to 0.83%[2] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - December PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points from November, indicating a substantial improvement[3] - PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month in December, above the seasonal average of -0.2%[3] - The PPI's tail effect is expected to drop sharply to -1.5 percentage points in January 2026, likely leading to a significant decline in year-on-year PPI data[3] Economic Outlook - The current price recovery is not firmly supported by effective demand, necessitating continued monetary easing and potential policy rate cuts to stimulate investment and consumption[4] - A genuine improvement in prices should stem from enhanced household income expectations and growth in terminal demand, rather than solely relying on low base effects from the previous year[3] Industry Analysis - Downstream industries may face dual pressures from rising raw material costs and stagnant factory prices, risking profit margin erosion, particularly in sectors lacking brand strength[3] - The recovery in PPI for downstream sectors is lagging compared to upstream sectors, indicating a potential risk of downward revisions in profit expectations for Q4[3]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in copper and gold prices, influenced by input factors, has led to a continued rise in inflation for December [2][8] - December's PPI increased primarily due to the rise in copper prices, while other commodity prices and mid-to-lower stream PPI showed weak performance [2][8] - The CPI for December rose year-on-year, supported by high gold prices, although core CPI excluding gold remained low [2][8] Inflation Data Summary - On January 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released December 2025 inflation data: CPI year-on-year at 0.8%, previous value 0.7%, expected 0.8%, month-on-month at 0.2%; PPI year-on-year at -1.9%, previous value -2.2%, expected -2%, month-on-month at 0.2 [1][7][71] PPI Analysis - December PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, driven by a 7.9% rise in copper prices, which was the strongest contributing factor [2][8] - Coal prices contributed positively to PPI, while international oil prices declined, negatively impacting domestic oil prices [2][8] - The utilization rate in mid-to-lower stream sectors did not improve significantly, leading to a failure in price transmission from upstream to downstream [2][8] CPI Analysis - December CPI rose year-on-year by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, with core CPI rising to 2% mainly due to high gold prices [2][8] - Excluding gold, the remaining core CPI continued to decline, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points to -0.7% [2][8] - The CPI for food items increased by 0.9 percentage points to 1.1%, with fresh vegetables and fruits seeing significant price increases due to supply constraints [3][23][72] Service CPI Insights - The service CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%, with weak rental demand dragging down housing rent CPI [3][29][72] - Core service CPI also decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1%, while dining out CPI saw a slight decline [3][29][72] Future Outlook - The ability of anti-involution policies to sustain price increases in mid-to-lower stream sectors is crucial for future inflation trends [4][40] - Over the past three years, commodity prices have only explained about 30% of PPI fluctuations, with more influence from price "over-declines" in mid-to-lower stream sectors [4][40] - High gold prices and improvements in service consumption may support core CPI, but the high base effect from the Spring Festival may limit January's CPI increase [4][40]

CPI Analysis - December CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, the highest growth since March 2023[2] - Food prices contributed significantly to CPI, with fresh vegetables and fruits rising by 18.2% and 4.4% respectively[2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year[2] PPI Analysis - December PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - PPI recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking three consecutive months of growth[2] - Key industries such as coal mining and cement manufacturing saw price increases of 1.3%, 0.8%, and 0.5% respectively[2] Market Outlook - January CPI is expected to drop to around 0.4% year-on-year due to a high base effect from the previous year[2] - January PPI is projected to rise to approximately 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year estimate of -1.2%[2] - The impact of low oil prices continues to weigh on PPI improvements, while rising prices in non-ferrous metals support certain sectors[2] Risks - Domestic policy effectiveness may fall short of expectations, posing risks to economic recovery[2]

宏 观 及 期 指 点 评 2025 年 1 月 9 日 股指期货 IC2603 和 IM2603 合约均创下上市以来新高 IF2603 偏强震荡 IH2603 震荡整理 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成 具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作 出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【行情前瞻要点】 1 月 9 日，股指期货主力合约 IF2603、IH2603、IC2603 和 IM2603 小幅高开；开盘后，继续震荡上行。 IC2603 创下 2015 年 7 月 20 日上市以来新高 8020.6 点，IM2603 再创 2022 年 7 月 22 日上市以来新高 8016.0 点。IC2603 和 IM2603 震荡偏强上行，涨幅明显大于 IF2603 和 IH2603。2025 年 12 月，CPI 同比上涨 0.8%， 预期上涨 0.75%，环比上涨 0.2%；PP ...