沪铜产业日报 2025/12/11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 92,210.00 | +360.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 11,616.00 | +59.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -100.00 | -30.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 190,380.00 | -9993.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -39,249.00 | +2828.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 164,975.00 | -700.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 88,905.00 | -9025.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 65,400.00 | +2300.00↑ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 31,461.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | ...

Inflation Data Summary - November CPI increased year-on-year from 0.2% to 0.7%, meeting expectations of 0.7%[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, maintaining a high level since 2022[2] - PPI decreased year-on-year from -2.1% to -2.2%, with expectations of -2%[2] Key Influences on CPI - Food prices significantly impacted CPI, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% compared to -2.7% in November last year[2] - Fresh vegetable prices rose by 7.2% due to adverse weather affecting production and transportation[2] - Medical service prices increased by 0.3%, marking the eighth consecutive month of price rises[2] PPI Trends - PPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the second consecutive month of increase[3] - Seasonal demand in coal and gas industries contributed to price increases[3] - The computer and electronics sector saw a price increase of 0.1%, while the automotive sector's price decline narrowed from -0.2% to -0.1%[3] Future Inflation Outlook - CPI is expected to maintain a positive year-on-year trend, with projections of around 0.7% for next year[4] - PPI is anticipated to show a recovery trend, but the timing for a positive year-on-year change remains uncertain, with estimates around -1.4% for next year[4] - The supply-demand dynamics in the midstream manufacturing sector are crucial for PPI stabilization[4] Risks and Considerations - Potential upward risks for CPI include improvements in service sector pricing, particularly if consumer subsidy policies expand[5] - The midstream manufacturing sector's price stabilization is critical for PPI recovery, as it has been a significant drag on overall PPI performance[5]

Group 1: CPI Trends - CPI year-on-year growth has shown a recovery trend for three consecutive months, with a November increase of 0.7%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[8] - Food prices have significantly contributed to the CPI improvement, with fresh vegetables and fruits accounting for 54.29% of the food price increase[12] - The two-year compound growth rate of CPI in November was 0.45%, reflecting a marginal improvement[8] Group 2: Food Price Dynamics - Fresh vegetables and fruits saw year-on-year price increases of 14.5% and 0.7%, respectively, due to supply shortages caused by extreme weather[12] - Beef and lamb prices also maintained stable year-on-year growth, with increases of 6.2% and 3.7% respectively, driven by declining livestock numbers[12] Group 3: PPI Trends - PPI year-on-year growth was -2.2% in November, lower than the expected -2.03%, indicating a continued low-level fluctuation[19] - The year-on-year growth rate of production materials was -2.4%, while living materials saw a decline of -1.5%[20] Group 4: Sector Analysis - The upstream mining sector showed relative price stability, with coal mining and black metal mining prices improving marginally[23] - Downstream consumer prices exhibited weak recovery, with food and beverage prices continuing to show weakness, reflecting ongoing demand issues[24]

手上还拿着消费基金的老铁，麻烦举个手。 消息板块自2021年初见顶之后，这几年走势实在是惨不忍睹。 CPI涨幅创出近21个月来新高！ 国家统计局在昨天公布的数据显示，11月份居民消费价格指数也即CPI，同比上涨0.7%，涨幅继续扩大。而扣除了食品和能源价格的核心CPI更是连续3个月 保持在1%以上涨幅，11月份同比上涨了1.2%。不过，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）虽然环比略涨，但同比跌幅扩大，当月下降了2.2%。 总的来说，11月份在食品价格回升的拉动下，CPI涨幅创出了自2024年3月份以来的新高，居民消费持续恢复。 不过A股早盘的大消费板块看起来仍然没有什么起色，食品饮料、家用电器等板块微跌。 A股的消费行业触动很多老铁的神经，想当年，A股那几只"顶流"消费基金，我也是买过的，甚至直到现在还留着一点，好几年了，看它什么时候回本。 消费板块能否随CPI上涨，开始触底反弹？ 据12月10日酒价数据显示，53度散装飞天茅台参考批发价已经报到1500元/瓶，创下年内新低，同比跌幅约20%，较两年前跌约40%，飞天茅台单瓶的批发价 格直接跌到指导价！ 而这已经是12月份，传统的白酒消费旺季即将来临，看来今年白酒 ...

她认为，PPI分行业同比数据，从三个维度清晰展现了我国各项宏观政策持续发力显效，价格走势呈现 积极向好的变化态势。一是综合整治"内卷式"竞争成效显现，相关行业价格同比降幅收窄。具体来看， 煤炭开采和洗选业、光伏设备及元器件制造、锂离子电池制造价格同比降幅比上月分别收窄3.8个、2.0 个和0.7个百分点，均已连续多个月收窄；新能源车整车制造价格降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点。二是新 兴产业快速发展，带动相关行业价格同比上涨。三是消费潜力有效释放，带动有关行业价格同比回升向 好。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，当前，"以旧换新"政策发力，汽车、家电等商品价格同比数据上行 势头较为明显，这是近期核心CPI同比涨幅扩大的主要原因。 冠通期货研究咨询部经理王静告诉期货日报记者，11月数据显示，物价温和回升势头仍需加力巩 固，"反内卷"政策的力度有待进一步提升。创元期货研究员刘钇含也表示，11月物价水平基本已经筑 底，但工业品价格走势偏弱，需要继续出台提振需求的相关政策，促进物价水平进一步企稳回升。 王青表示，未来一段时间物价水平偏低格局将延续，这为年底前后稳增长政策发力特别是央行适度降息 提供了充分空间，当前无需担心 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.456 | 102.466 | 105.825 | 105.820 | 108.030 | 108.045 | 112.79 | 112.94 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.430 | 102.444 | 105.785 | 105.790 | 107.980 | 108.000 | 112.59 | 112.75 | | | 涨跌 | 0.026 | 0.022 | 0.040 | 0.030 | 0.050 | 0.045 | 0.200 | 0.190 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.03% | 0. ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November 2025, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from a previous increase of 0.2%[10] - The CPI's month-on-month change shifted from an increase to a decrease, primarily due to seasonal declines in service prices and lower energy prices[3] - Fresh vegetable prices rose significantly by 7.2%, exceeding the seasonal average decline of 3.2%, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the CPI increase[13] - Pork prices decreased by 2.2%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.07 percentage points due to sufficient market supply[13] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In November 2025, the PPI's year-on-year decline widened, while the month-on-month change remained stable[4] - The PPI is expected to show a month-on-month increase in December, with a year-on-year decline projected at -1.8%[24] - The prices of upstream raw materials, such as coal and gas, are expected to rise seasonally due to increased demand[23] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to gradually improve prices in key industries, positively impacting the PPI in the long term[24] Group 3: Market Outlook - The CPI is projected to maintain a month-on-month growth rate near zero in December, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 0.5% expected for 2025[3] - The ongoing OPEC+ production increase is likely to keep oil prices under pressure, affecting the CPI negatively[3] - Core inflation is anticipated to see reduced support from gold prices, while seasonal increases in service prices are expected[3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Economics** sector, particularly analyzing the **Consumer Price Index (CPI)** and **Producer Price Index (PPI)** trends in the context of recent economic conditions in China [1][6]. Core Insights - **CPI Increase**: Vegetables contributed a **0.5 percentage point (pp)** increase to the headline CPI, with half attributed to a low base effect and the other half due to weak sequential growth caused by supply and logistics disruptions [2][8]. - **Core CPI Performance**: The core CPI remained stable at **1.2% year-on-year (YoY)**, supported by gold prices, indicating a lagged pass-through effect from international gold prices to domestic retail [3][8]. - **Service Prices Decline**: Service prices softened to **0.4% month-on-month (MoM)**, down from **1.0% in October**, reflecting a sluggish service PMI and job market conditions [3][8]. - **PPI Trends**: The modest MoM PPI was primarily driven by higher coal prices due to seasonal demand and production curbs, alongside imported inflation in non-ferrous metals. Most other PPI components remained soft [4][8]. Future Outlook - **CPI Projections**: The December headline CPI is expected to remain supported by a low base in food prices and potential inertia in gold retail prices, but will face downward pressure from normalizing vegetable prices and a higher base in core CPI [5][8]. - **PPI Expectations**: Pockets of improvement in PPI may continue, particularly as the housing downturn deepens, despite broader softness in the market [5][8]. Additional Noteworthy Points - **K-shaped PPI Dynamics**: The report highlights a K-shaped recovery in PPI, where coal and non-ferrous metals are experiencing upward pressure due to supply issues, contrasting with broader softness in mid to downstream sectors [8]. - **Weak Job Market Impact**: The ongoing weak job market and entrenched housing downturn are expected to exert continued downward pressure on CPI [8]. Data Summary - **CPI YoY Changes**: November CPI was **0.7%**, up from **0.2%** in October, and a significant improvement from **-0.3%** in September [7]. - **PPI YoY Changes**: The PPI for consumer goods showed a decline, with specific sectors like coal and non-ferrous metals showing notable increases [7]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in China as it relates to CPI and PPI trends.

【趋势强度】 2025 年 12 月 11 日 锌：高位回落 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 23075 | 0.02% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 3089 | -1.33% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 118200 | -11503 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 9024 | -944 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 93179 | -8075 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 222185 | -217 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 65 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 162.99 | -3.74 | | （元/吨） | | | ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the economic indicators related to inflation, specifically the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for November, along with implications for the banking and real estate sectors [2][4][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **CPI and PPI Trends**: - November CPI increased year-on-year to 0.1%, driven by rising food prices, particularly fresh vegetables, while core CPI remained stable at 1% [2][4]. - November PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year but showed a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating weaker-than-expected performance [2][4][6]. - The overall inflation environment remains subdued, with significant reliance on base effects for any recovery in CPI and PPI [2][9]. - **Sector Performance**: - The banking sector faces regulatory pressures due to the accumulation of long-term bonds, impacting their willingness to hold such assets and potentially affecting yield recovery [2][10][11]. - Recent divergence in performance between real estate stocks and bank stocks reflects market uncertainty regarding the authenticity of real estate sector news, such as mortgage subsidy policies [2][12]. - **Real Estate Sector Dynamics**: - Multiple turning points are identified in the real estate sector, including the emergence of non-performing loans in development loans and anticipated risks in mortgage loans expected to peak between late 2025 and 2026 [2][14]. - Current conditions favor bank stock investments due to their priority in collateral claims over insurance companies [2][14][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Commodity Prices and Market Sentiment**: - A general decline in commodity prices, including glass and coal, is noted, with market expectations for the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference affecting sentiment [2][9]. - The potential impact of international oil prices and the performance of the non-ferrous metals sector on domestic industry differentiation is highlighted [7][8]. - **Future Monitoring Points**: - Key areas to monitor include the sustainability of food prices, particularly fresh vegetables, and the performance of livestock and poultry products [7]. - The effectiveness of anti-involution policies in sectors like photovoltaic and lithium batteries is also crucial for future economic recovery [8]. - **Global Market Influences**: - Upcoming decisions from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, are expected to have significant implications for global markets, particularly concerning interest rates and currency valuations [3][16]. - **Investor Sentiment**: - The recent decline in bank stocks is attributed to irrational market reactions rather than fundamental weaknesses, suggesting potential buying opportunities as prices stabilize [2][18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and sector-specific dynamics.