证券研究报告 | 2025年06月15日 宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标回暖，房地产景气上升 主要结论：高频指标回暖，房地产景气上升。 经济增长方面，本周(6 月 13 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 由负转正， 指数 B 有所回升。从分项来看，本周房地产领域景气上升，投资领域景气回 落，消费领域景气基本保持不变。从季节性比较来看，本周指数 B 标准化后 上涨 0.14，表现优于历史平均水平，指向国内经济增长环比动能有所改善。 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 6 月 20 日所 在周）十年期国债利率将上行，上证综合指数将下行。 周度价格高频跟踪方面： （1）本周食品价格下跌，非食品价格上涨。预计 6 月 CPI 食品价格环比约 为-0.5%，非食品价格环比约为零，整体 CPI 环比约为-0.1%，CPI 同比小幅 回升至零。 （2）6 月上旬流通领域生产资料价格定基指数继续下跌。预计 6 月 PPI 环比 约为-0.3%，PPI 同比回落至-3.4%。 风险提示：海外市场动荡，存在不确定性。 核心观点 经济研究· ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices have significantly increased, reaching $3430.29 per ounce with a rise of 1.33% [1][3] - The opening price for gold today was $3384.94 per ounce, with a high of $3432.70 and a low of $3379.33 [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. inflation appears to be moving towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target, while labor data suggests a potential rise in unemployment [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for May increased slightly by 0.1%, and initial jobless claims remain high at 248,000 [2] - These factors have heightened expectations for a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in early fall, with a 61% probability for a rate cut in September [2] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to Federal Reserve movements, has decreased to 3.891% due to the recent data [2] - Economists predict a modest increase in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for May, aligning with the Federal Reserve's inflation target [2]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][3][4] - The overall CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and fell by 0.2% month-on-month, with food and beverage prices contributing a 0.02 percentage point increase to the CPI [2][5] - The decline in energy prices, which fell by 6.1% year-on-year, was a significant factor in the overall CPI decrease, accounting for approximately 0.47 percentage points of the decline [2][6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in May, with the decline rate widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, while the month-on-month decline remained at 0.4% [5][6] - The decrease in PPI was influenced by international factors, including a drop in global oil prices, which affected domestic prices in related industries [6][7] - Certain sectors, such as high-end equipment manufacturing, saw price increases due to the growth of new consumption dynamics and policy effects, indicating a mixed performance across industries [6][7] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - The increase in core CPI is attributed to a recovery in consumer demand, driven by holiday consumption and previous consumption stimulus policies [3][4] - Prices for gold jewelry, home textiles, and durable consumer goods showed significant year-on-year increases of 40.1%, 1.9%, and 1.8% respectively, indicating positive changes in consumer spending [4][6] - The service sector also experienced a year-on-year price increase of 0.5%, with transportation rental fees, airfare, and tourism prices turning from decline to growth [4][6]

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for May in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, matching expectations, while the core PPI rose by 3.0%, slightly below the anticipated 3.1% [1] - Month-on-month, the PPI increased by only 0.1%, which was lower than the expected 0.2%, indicating a slowdown in price growth [1] - The report highlights that despite the current high tariff policies not significantly impacting consumers, there may be increased price pressures in the second half of the year as companies seek to maintain profit margins [1] Sector Analysis - **Services**: The service sector saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, primarily driven by a 2.9% rise in trade service margins, although transportation and warehousing services decreased by 0.2% [2] - **Goods**: Goods prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with notable increases in tobacco products (up 0.9%) and gasoline, while jet fuel prices fell by 8.2% [3] - **Core PPI**: Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, indicating stable underlying inflation trends [4] Intermediate Demand - **Processed Goods**: There was a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in processed goods, with processed materials (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.4%, while processed energy goods fell by 1.2% [5] - **Unprocessed Goods**: Unprocessed goods saw a significant month-on-month decline of 1.6%, primarily driven by an 18.7% drop in energy materials like natural gas, alongside a 1.4% decrease in non-food materials [6] Key Price Movements - **Price Increases**: Key items that saw price increases included tobacco (+0.9%), gasoline, diesel, and primary non-ferrous metals (+4.6%) [8] - **Price Decreases**: Items that experienced price declines included jet fuel (-8.2%), pork, carbon steel scrap, and natural gas (-18.7%) [9] - **Service Sector Prices**: In the service sector, air passenger transport prices fell by 1.1%, while furniture retail and securities brokerage services also declined, contrasting with increases in system software publishing [10]

分析师密切关注PPI报告，因为其中的一些组成部分被用来计算美联储偏爱的通胀指标——个人消费支 出(PCE)价格指数。这些类别在5月份表现疲软：机票和投资组合管理费下降，而医疗保健成本也较为温 和。PCE报告将于本月晚些时候发布。 在美国总统特朗普今年4月宣布对贸易伙伴征收高额关税后，美国企业近几周一直在努力应对反复无常 的贸易政策。 特朗普表示，他打算在未来一到两周内向贸易伙伴发送信函，设定单边关税税率，以便在7月9日的最后 期限之前对数十个经济体重新征收更高的关税。 智通财经APP获悉，美国5月份生产者价格指数(PPI)总体保持温和，这表明关税尚未导致消费者和企业 价格上涨。美国劳工统计局周四公布的报告显示，5月PPI环比上涨0.1%，涨幅低于市场预期的0.2%。 扣除食品和能源后的核心PPI也环比上涨0.1%。 此前公布的5月美国消费者价格指数(CPI)显示，通胀连续第四个月保持温和。尽管到目前为止，加征关 税对美国民众的影响尚不显著，但经济学家预计，随着企业希望防范利润率进一步走软，价格压力将在 今年下半年加大。 PPI数据显示，5月份批发和零售商的利润率有所上升，尤其是汽车和机械批发，而此前一个月的利 ...

智通财经6月12日电，美国5月PPI同比增长2.6%，预期2.6%；环比增长0.1%，预期0.20%。 ...

生产：电厂日耗季节性回升 通货膨胀：农产品价格指数强于去年同期 CPI：猪价弱势运行 PPI：油价持续反弹 经济增长：钢材转向累库 需求：钢材转向累库 风险提示 统计口径误差。数据统计大多为抽样，恐与现实情况有些许出入。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 (1) 电厂日耗季节性回升。6 月 10 日，6 大发电集团的平均日耗为 73.6 万吨，较 6 月 3 日的 72.6 万吨上涨 1.4%。6 月 6 日，南方八省电厂日耗为 171.8 万吨，较 5 月 29 日的 169.1 万吨上涨 1.6%。 (2) 高炉开工率温和回落。6 月 6 日，全国高炉开工率 83.5%，较 5 月 30 日下降 0.3 个百分点；产能利用率 90.6%， 较 5 月 30 日下降 0.1 个百分点。6 月 6 日，唐山钢厂高炉开工率 95.2%，较 5 月 30 日上升 1.7 个百分点。 (3) 轮胎开工率二次回落。6 月 5 日，汽车全钢胎（用于卡车）开工率 63.5%，较 5 月 29 日下降 1.3 个百分点；汽车 半钢胎（用于轿车）开工率 73.9%，较 5 月 29 日下降 4.4 个百分点。 (4) 江浙地区织 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the CPI in May remains at -0.1%, reflecting a trend of negative growth in consumer prices for four out of the first five months of the year, with the market closely monitoring price trends as a key macroeconomic variable [2][3] - The PPI in May shows a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, which is a larger drop compared to the previous month's decline of 2.7%, indicating a worsening trend in producer prices [2] - The decline in CPI is primarily attributed to falling energy and food prices, with vegetable prices dropping by 8.3% year-on-year and energy prices decreasing by 6.1%, significantly impacting the overall CPI [2] Group 2 - The current price level is described as stable yet weak, with ongoing negative growth potentially having adverse effects on macroeconomic growth, leading to delayed consumer spending on major purchases and increased corporate inventory [4] - The downward trend in prices is causing actual interest rates to rise, with the one-year fixed deposit rate falling below 1%, resulting in a real interest rate of 1.05%, which may discourage private sector leverage [5] - The central bank's recent interest rate cuts aim to support the real economy and encourage investment and consumption, particularly in the real estate sector, but persistent price declines may weaken the effectiveness of these policies [6] Group 3 - To enhance price levels, it is essential to promote consumption, and addressing policy bottlenecks that affect consumer spending is crucial [7]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | | 点评 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | | | | | | 隔夜 铜下跌 0.45%至 9725 美元/吨；SHFE | LME | | | 铜主力下跌 | 0.13%至 | 79030 元/吨；国 | | | 内现货进口持续亏损。宏观方面，美联储调查显示，5 | | | | | | 月美国消费者对未来通胀的预 | | | 期全面下降，为 2024 年来首次，消费者信心有所改善。另外美商务部长称谈判进展 | | | | | | | | | 顺利。国内方面，中国 5 月 CPI 同比降 0.1%，环比由增转降，PPI | | | | | | 同比降幅扩大至 | | | 3.3%；中国 5 月按美元计出口同比增长 4.8%，进口下降 3.4%。库存方面，LME | | | | | | 铜下 | | | 降 吨至 120400 吨；Comex 铜增加 | 2000 | 1102 | 吨至 | 173215 | ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.2%[2] - The core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year, up from 0.5% in the previous period[2] - The cumulative CPI increase for the first five months of this year is 0%, which is weaker than the 0.4% increase during the same period from 2021 to 2024[3] - Food prices showed a cumulative decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 1% in the previous four years[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 3.2%[2] - The cumulative PPI decrease for the first five months of this year is -1.5%, weaker than last year's -0.5%[3] - In the first five months, the prices of production materials, particularly in the mining sector, showed significant weakness, with a cumulative decrease of 8.7% in extraction[5] - Among 32 comparable industries, only 10 showed stronger prices compared to last year, primarily in downstream manufacturing and electric heating sectors[5] Group 3: Price Trends and Influences - Energy prices decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, significantly impacting the overall CPI decline, accounting for nearly 70% of the total drop[4] - The price of gasoline fell by 3.8%, contributing to a 0.13 percentage point decrease in the CPI[7] - The proportion of CPI items experiencing price increases rose from 24% to 29%, indicating a broader inflationary trend[55] - The PPI's year-on-year decline expanded from 2.7% to 3.3%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the production sector[49]