1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On December 4, the coke主力合约 closed at 1,651.5 yuan/ton, up 1.69% intraday. The position of the主力 contract was 27,065 lots at the close, a decrease of 2,216 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke decreased by 2.99% week - on - week, while that of Qingdao Port remained flat. Coke daily output increased, but the daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills decreased, and the steel mill profitability rate dropped to 35.06%. In December, there is still uncertainty in coking coal supply, and the Politburo meeting may bring macro - level benefits, which creates resistance to further decline of coke futures. The main contract rebounded slightly at the lower edge of the trading range [6][37]. - On December 4, the coking coal主力合约 closed at 1,091.5 points, up 1.11% intraday. The position of the main contract was 350,729 lots at the close, a decrease of 41,446 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 6.3% week - on - week. In November, coking coal production increased, and imports accelerated, resulting in insufficient supply - side support and a weakening market sentiment. However, considering the December Politburo economic meeting and the end - of - year coal mine production reduction expectation, there is resistance to further decline of coking coal futures. The focus remains on coal mine production [7][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - From January to October this year, global new ship order volume was 1,632 vessels and 94.87 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decline of 44.5%. It is expected that the average annual demand in the global shipbuilding market during the 15th Five - Year Plan period will be about 110 million deadweight tons and 42 million compensated gross tons, a decrease of about 20% compared with the average of the 14th Five - Year Plan period but still about 50% higher than that of the 13th Five - Year Plan period [9]. - On December 4, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur primary coking coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1,500 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [10]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - first - class Coke (Flat - price) | 1,620 yuan/ton | - 2.99% | - 2.99% | - 4.14% | - 9.50% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - first - class Coke (Out - of - warehouse) | 1,450 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 13.17% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 6.25% | - 6.25% | 1.69% | - 9.77% | | Jingtang Port Australian - produced Coking Coal | 1,570 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.37% | - 1.26% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced Coking Coal | 1,650 yuan/ton | - 3.51% | - 3.51% | 7.84% | - 2.37% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,651.5 | 1.69% | 1,667.5 | 1,615.0 | 196,462 | 2,295 | 27,065 | - 2,216 | | Coking Coal | | 1,091.5 | 1.11% | 1,096.5 | 1,059.5 | 337,231 | - 85,112 | 350,729 | - 41,446 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [15][16][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of coking coal at mine mouths, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and full - sample independent coking plants from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][25]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [29][30][32]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke is similar to the core view, with the main contract rebounding slightly due to supply uncertainty and potential macro - level benefits, and attention should be paid to coal mine production [37]. - The outlook for coking coal is also in line with the core view, with resistance to further decline due to the Politburo meeting and end - of - year production reduction expectation, and the key lies in coal mine production [38].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: The PTA market is expected to continue to fluctuate with the cost side in the short - term. Supply reduction is significant recently, but previously shut - down capacities will gradually restart, leading to a shift to inventory accumulation. The cancellation of export restrictions by India boosts exports, while downstream polyester开工 is expected to seasonally weaken [3]. - MEG: Under the expectation of both supply and demand reduction, MEG may oscillate at a low level. It is continuously accumulating inventory, though the accumulation rate has decreased. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance, and an Iranian plant has shut down [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Performance**: On December 04, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 0.34%, and the basis weakened to - 37 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 4685 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil fluctuated around $63. OPEC + decided to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.92 days, a 0.14 - day increase from the previous week [3]. - **Main Force Movements**: Short - side main forces increased their positions [3]. MEG - **Market Performance**: On December 04, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 fell 0.41%, and the basis weakened to - 8 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 3813 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil fluctuated around $63. The production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in the red. The weekly MEG port inventory in East China totaled 71.9 tons, a 1.1 - ton increase from the previous week [4]. - **Main Force Movements**: There was a divergence between long - side and short - side main forces [4].

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/12/4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | | 1585.000 | 51.0↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1090.1 | +11.60↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 +37.90↑ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 494.90 | | 329.90 | +44.30↑ | | EC合约基差 | -200.62↓ | -101.35 | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 34222 | -786↓ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -155.72↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1483.65 | | 948.77 | -159.08↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 9.57↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 1403.13 | | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） -0.99 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 土泽辉 Z0019938 2025年12月4日 | | 原田 | | 现价 江苏一级 8620 8620 0 0.00% | | 期价 Y2601 8286 8288 -2 -0.02% | | 墓差 Y2601 334 332 2 0.60% | | 江苏1月 01+260 01+270 现货基差报价 -10 | | 8619 | | 棕榈油 | | 12月3日 12月2日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 8720 8620 现价 广东24度 100 1.16% | | 8720 0.11% 期价 P2601 8730 10 | | 基差 P2601 -10 -100 90 90.00% | | 现货基差报价 广东1月 01+50 01+0 50 ត | | 盘面进口成本 广州港1月 9195.1 9091.7 103.4 1.14% | | 盘面进口利润 -372 -93 -25.14% 广州港1月 -465 | | 仓单 352 355 0.00% 0 | | 菜籽油 | | 现价 江苏三级 10050 10080 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][7] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has converged to 180, and it can continue to be held. Considering the decline in hot metal, the iron ore price is suppressed, and one can focus on the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage operation in the January contract. [1] Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore futures will oscillate in the range of 750 - 820. There is support from downstream restocking, and there is a need for basis repair. Although the price is at a high level, with the improvement of market expectations and the support of downstream demand, the iron ore demand is stable. [3] Coke Industry - Coke futures have basically overdrawn the spot price cut expectation, and the further decline space is limited. It can be viewed as a unilateral oscillation, with the reference range of 1550 - 1700. The recommended arbitrage strategy is the 1 - 5 reverse spread. [7] Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal spot and futures prices are in a range - bound oscillation after a significant decline. It can be viewed as a unilateral oscillation, with the reference range of 1050 - 1150. The recommended arbitrage strategy is the 1 - 5 reverse spread. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions have slight changes, with some prices falling. Futures contract prices also have some fluctuations. For example, rebar spot in the South China region decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3340 yuan/ton, and the rebar 10 - contract price dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 3203 yuan/ton. [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The profit of some steel products has improved, such as the profit of East China rebar increased by 12 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 2 yuan/ton. [1] Production - The daily average hot - metal output decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The output of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons to 206.1 tons, a decline of 0.9%. [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decline of 2.3%. Rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decline of 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 400.9 tons, a decline of 0.3%. [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 9.0, a decline of 8.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.2 tons to 888.0 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.8 tons to 227.9 tons, a decline of 1.2%. [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, and the basis of the January contract also changed. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 7.7 yuan/ton to 803.3 yuan/ton, and the basis of the January contract for Carajás fines decreased by 6.7 yuan/ton to 3.8 yuan/ton. [3] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port decreased slightly, while the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index increased slightly. For example, the spot price of Carajás fines in Rizhao Port decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 883 yuan/ton. [3] Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 117.8 tons to 2699.3 tons, a decline of 4.2%. The global weekly shipment volume increased by 44.8 tons to 3323.2 tons, an increase of 1.4%. The monthly national import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decline of 4.3%. [3] Demand - The weekly daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The weekly daily average port clearance volume increased by 3.6 tons to 330.6 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decline of 0.8%. [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 27.3 tons to 15237.39 tons, an increase of 0.2%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decline of 0.7%. [3] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke spot prices remained unchanged, and futures contract prices decreased slightly. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained at 1662 yuan/ton, and the coke 05 - contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 1752 yuan/ton. [7] Supply - The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The weekly daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2%. [7] Demand - The weekly hot - metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decline of 0.7%. [7] Inventory Changes - Coke total inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 6.5 tons to 71.8 tons, an increase of 9.94%. The inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.2 tons to 625.5 tons, an increase of 0.5%. [7] Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 3.6 tons to 2.0 tons. [7] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of some coking coal spot increased slightly, and futures contract prices decreased. For example, the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1205 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 01 - contract price decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 1071 yuan/ton. [7] Supply - The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased. The raw coal output increased by 4.6 tons to 856.1 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The clean coal output increased by 4.9 tons to 438.8 tons, an increase of 1.1%. [7] Demand - The demand for coking coal is affected by the decline in hot - metal output and the change in coking plant production. [7] Inventory Changes - The inventory of washing plants, ports, and coking plants decreased, while the inventory of coal mines, ports of entry, and steel mills increased. The total inventory increased slightly. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High - level oscillatory market, maintain long PX short BZ, 5 - 9 positive spread [2][8] - PTA: Single - sided high - level oscillatory market, hold long PX short PTA, 5 - 9 positive spread [2][9] - MEG: Hold long MEG short PTA, price oscillates between 3800 - 4000, focus on positive spread of monthly difference [2][9] - Rubber: Oscillatory and weak [2][10] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillatory decline [2][14] - LLDPE: Basis turns positive, supply remains loose [2][17] - PP: Short - term rebound, medium - term trend still under pressure [2][19] - Caustic soda: Trend still under pressure [2][23] - Pulp: Oscillatory operation [2][28] - Glass: Original sheet price stable [2][32] - Methanol: Oscillatory operation, upside space narrowing [2][36] - Urea: Spot trading volume continuously increasing, price center rising [2][41] - Styrene: Short - term oscillation [2][44] - Soda ash: Spot market with little change [2][48] - LPG: Trend under pressure [2][51] - Propylene: Pattern remains loose [2][52] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [2][62] - Fuel oil: Narrow adjustment, weak trend continuing [2][63] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Night session continuing to weaken, spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices narrowing slightly [2][63] - Freight index (European line): Oscillatory market [2][65] - Staple fiber: Cost - supported, short - term oscillation, medium - term pressure [2][77] - Bottle chips: Cost - supported, short - term oscillation, medium - term pressure [2][77] - Offset printing paper: Low - level oscillation [2][80] - Pure benzene: Short - term mainly oscillatory [2][84] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the performance of various commodities in the energy and chemical industry is differentiated, with some in oscillatory markets, some under pressure, and some showing signs of improvement. Factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and market sentiment comprehensively influence the price trends of commodities [2] - For some commodities, short - term and medium - term trends may differ, and investors need to pay attention to changes in fundamentals and market news [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: PXN continues to widen, with supply expected to shrink as domestic operating rate is 88.5% (-1%), some devices have maintenance plans, and demand from PTA increases as its operating rate rises to 73.7% (+1.6%). However, overseas gasoline market impacts PX valuation [5][8] - **PTA**: With the restart of some devices, the operating rate rises to 73.7% (+1.6%), and polyester operating rate remains high at 91.5% (+0.2%). Supported by PX cost, the single - sided price is in a high - level oscillatory market, but beware of the negative feedback from the terminal industry [9] - **MEG**: The price center drops, with supply tightening as some domestic devices have changes and overseas devices are under maintenance, and port inventory is expected to decline marginally. Hold long MEG short PTA [6][9] Rubber - The rubber market is oscillatory and weak, with the futures price falling, trading volume and open interest decreasing. The spot price also declines, and the demand from the tire industry is weak [10][11] Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is in an oscillatory decline. Although the inventory of some products decreases, the market is affected by natural rubber and butadiene news, with weak downstream demand and high supply suppressing the price upside [14][15] LLDPE - The LLDPE basis turns positive, but the supply remains loose. The futures price is weak, which dampens market sentiment. The downstream replenishment is cautious, and the supply pressure may increase in the medium - term [17][18] PP - PP shows a short - term rebound, but the medium - term trend is still under pressure. The supply is relatively high, and the demand peak has passed. Although the short - term trading volume improves due to low prices, the long - term factors such as cost, supply, and demand still dominate [19][20] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is under pressure, with high production and inventory. The demand from the alumina industry is weak, and the export is under pressure. The spot price is expected to decline [23][25] Pulp - The pulp market is in an oscillatory operation. The price rises due to supply tightening expectations and cost support. The demand for living paper is stable, and attention should be paid to port inventory and downstream procurement [28][30] Glass - The glass original sheet price is stable. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the rigid demand is still weak, and the market is mainly for rigid - demand pick - up [32][33] Methanol - Methanol is in an oscillatory operation with narrowing upside space. The port inventory decreases, but the short - term destocking speed slows down. The high supply pressure in the domestic market is the main contradiction, and the MTO profit is compressed [36][39] Urea - The urea spot trading volume increases continuously, and the price center rises. The enterprise inventory decreases, and the demand from reserves and exports improves. The short - term price is strong, but the medium - term upside is limited [41][42] Styrene - Styrene is in a short - term oscillatory state. The pure benzene market is under pressure in the short - term but may improve in the future. The supply of styrene is stable, and the downstream inventory is high [44][45] Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market changes little. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is general, with a wait - and - see attitude [48][49] LPG and Propylene - LPG is under pressure, and propylene's pattern remains loose. The prices of LPG and propylene futures decline, and the operating rates of relevant industries change slightly [51][52] PVC - PVC is in a low - level oscillatory state. The price is at a historical low, and some devices may reduce production due to losses, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [60][61] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is in a narrow adjustment with a weak trend, and low - sulfur fuel oil continues to weaken at night. The spot prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil decline, and the spread narrows slightly [63] Freight Index (European Line) - The freight index (European line) is in an oscillatory market. The futures price rebounds with reduced positions. The spot freight rate changes, and the future trend is affected by factors such as shipping company price increases and market supply - demand [65][74] Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips - Staple fiber and bottle chips are cost - supported, with short - term oscillation and medium - term pressure. The futures prices are weak, and the spot prices are stable. The sales rate of staple fiber decreases [77][78] Offset Printing Paper - Offset printing paper is in a low - level oscillatory state. The spot price is stable, and the cost increases while the profit decreases. The market demand is weak [80][81] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is mainly in a short - term oscillatory state. The port inventory increases, and the price changes slightly. The short - term market is under pressure, but there are supply contraction expectations in the future [84][85]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [4][6][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, domestic cotton demand is expected to be resilient, and after seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [4] - For sugar, short - term fundamental drivers are downward, but the low valuation and sugar mills' price - holding intention limit the downside. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price trend may be pessimistic [6] - For pulp, recent price increases are driven by the digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions, but the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.14%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,862 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton. The national average price was 15,005 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2] - The expected cotton planting area in Australia in 2025/26 is 406,000 hectares (6.09 million mu), a year - on - year decrease of 22%. The total cotton output is expected to be 943,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23% [2] Market Analysis - Internationally, USDA significantly increased the global cotton output in 2025/26, while consumption only slightly increased. The global ending inventory rose significantly compared to September and returned to inventory accumulation. US cotton production increased significantly due to higher yields, but exports only increased by 40,000 tons, increasing sales pressure. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the medium - to - long - term upward drive is unclear [3] - Domestically, cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to increase. The expected output in Xinjiang is 7.3 - 7.5 million tons. In the fourth quarter, new cotton is concentrated on the market, commercial inventory is seasonally rising, and short - term supply is abundant. Zhengzhou cotton's upward movement will be suppressed by hedging orders. Downstream demand is weak in the off - season, but spinning profits have improved, and inventory pressure is acceptable, limiting the downside [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, domestic cotton demand is expected to be resilient, and after seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [4] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,366 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.30%. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,410 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [4] - As of November 30, 35 sugar mills in Guangxi had started crushing, 26 less than the same period last year. Cumulative cane crushing was 1.4411 million tons, 3.2521 million tons less than last year. Sugar production was 133,900 tons, 378,500 tons less than last year. The sugar production rate was 9.29%, 1.63 percentage points lower. Cumulative sugar sales were 89,400 tons, 195,600 tons less than last year. The sales rate was 66.77%, 11.15 percentage points higher. The industrial inventory of new sugar was 44,500 tons, 182,900 tons less than last year [4] Market Analysis - Yesterday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly sorted. In the international market, Brazil's strong supply strengthened the oversupply expectation, and India's sugar production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to rebound significantly, suppressing the market. In the short - term, India's exports are difficult to increase, and Brazil's supply pressure is gradually weakening, limiting the downside of raw sugar prices. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices [5][6] - In the domestic market, the latest announced sugar and syrup imports are higher than expected, and with the successive start of sugar mills in Guangxi, short - term supply pressure remains [6] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Short - term fundamental drivers are downward, but the low valuation and sugar mills' price - holding intention limit the downside, with a possibility of a weak rebound. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price trend may be pessimistic [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,458 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 2.44%. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,525 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ussuri and Bratsk) was 5,050 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [6] - In October 2025, the total inventory at European ports decreased by 10.22% month - on - month and 6.47% year - on - year. Except for a 3.98% month - on - month increase in German port inventory, inventories at ports in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, the UK, Italy, and Spain decreased by 9.13%, 12.08%, 20.24%, and 2.48% respectively [7] Market Analysis - Yesterday, pulp futures prices rose strongly. On the supply side, there have been continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdowns and maintenance. Domtar permanently closed the Crofton paper mill in Canada, with an annual production of 380,000 tons of Lion brand bleached softwood pulp. Finns Group announced a temporary shutdown of the Rauma pulp mill with a capacity of 650,000 tons from December 15, expected to resume production gradually on January 7 next year, and is preparing for significant production cuts at the Joutseno pulp mill in 2026 [7] - On the demand side, the wood pulp inventory at European ports in October decreased significantly month - on - month and slightly year - on - year, indicating some improvement in demand. In the domestic market, although there has been a large amount of finished paper capacity put into production this year, terminal effective demand has been insufficient, and the paper industry is in an oversupply situation. Paper mills' operating rates are not high, and overall production has not increased significantly. The oversupply in the paper industry has led to continuous contraction of industry profits. Downstream paper mills are cautious in raw material procurement, resulting in high domestic port inventory [7] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Due to the gradual digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions, pulp futures prices have risen strongly in the past two days. However, the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases. Attention should also be paid to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-04 市场氛围一般，进口成本支撑延续 1、\t12月3日地区价格：山东市场，4430-4500；东北市场，4000-4150；华北市场，4250-4470；华东市场，4270-4500； 沿江市场，4600-4980；西北市场，4350-4480；华南市场，4400-4600。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷588美元/吨，涨8美元/吨，丁烷580美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 市场分析 合人民币价格丙烷4580元/吨，涨60元/吨，丁烷4518元/吨，涨76元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷581美元/吨，涨8美元/吨，丁烷573美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4526元/吨，涨60元/吨，丁烷4463元/吨，涨75元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 沙特阿美公司12月CP上调，LPG进口成本支撑延续。现货方面，昨日华东区域价格温和上涨，其余区域维稳为主， 交投氛围一般，上游库压可控。就基本面来看，近期中东供应边际收紧，科威特阿祖尔炼厂检修延长，国内炼厂 供应相对平稳 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 04 日 铝：偏强运行 氧化铝：继续承压 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21940 | 30 | 485 | 280 | 1205 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22010 | - | - | ー | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2897 | 34 | 33 | 19 | 275 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 161612 | -16380 | -11276 | -47636 | 78532 | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 249248 | -9192 | -9808 | -62021 | 38262 | | | LME铝3M成交 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Mainly weak operation [1] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the fermentation of news [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost data. It also reports on a key project milestone in the polysilicon industry. The trend intensity for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2601 (industrial silicon) closed at 8,920 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan from T - 1, 100 yuan from T - 5, and 220 yuan from T - 22. PS2601 (polysilicon) closed at 57,705 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan from T - 1 and 4,390 yuan from T - 5 [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +580 yuan/ton, and polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was - 5430 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,900 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 10,000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 52,350 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profit in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,349.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 3,596 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit was 7.7 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 550,000 tons, enterprise inventory was 180,000 tons, and industry inventory was 730,000 tons. Polysilicon factory inventory was 281,000 tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: Silicon ore prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan were 320 yuan/ton and 290 yuan/ton respectively. Wash - cleaned coal prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia were 1,475 yuan/ton and 1,200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The 400,000 - volt substation of the Oman United Solar Polysilicon Project, EPC - contracted by China Energy Construction Shanxi Electric Power Engineering Company, was successfully connected to the grid, marking a breakthrough in the project's construction [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].