证券研究报告 固收 半年末债市的三个关注点 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 08 日│中国内地 利率周报 报告核心观点 上周央行通过政策工具释放呵护信号，叠加大行积极增持短端利率债，市场 做多情绪回暖，终结了 5 月底的震荡下跌走势，短端利率下行带动长端利率 走低，曲线陡峭化。展望半年末时点，关税与基本面演绎、资金面及银行等 机构行为值得关注。预计短期中美关税谈判小幅抬升风险偏好，基本面对债 市仍有支撑；资金面冲击幅度有限，仍需提防资金分层与时点冲击；大行持 续买短债或助推曲线走陡，半年末银行兑现 OCI 浮盈券或无需过度担忧。 整体上，债市多空力量相对均衡，或难打破震荡格局，建议适度博弈曲线陡 峭化等。本周关注中美关税谈判、5 月通胀数据、贸易数据、金融数据。 关注点一：从关税谈判进展到基本面高频数据 特朗普就任以来，市场对中美关税预期波动剧烈。去年底与今年四月初，市 场情绪相对悲观，二月则过度乐观，当前市场情绪相对乐观，但整体已较为 钝化。展望未来，尽管特朗普关税政策充满不确定性，但其背后逻辑逐渐清 晰，市场反应将更趋钝化。上周两国领导人通话，关税谈判进入第二阶段， 期待本周关税谈判有积极进展，风险偏好略 ...

策略点评 证券研究报告 市场情绪回暖，重新关注科技方向 财信证券宏观策略周报（6.9-6.13） 2025 年 06 月 08 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 -12% -2% 8% 18% 28% 2024-06 2024-09 2024-12 2025-03 上证指数 沪深300 黄红卫 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 huanghongwei@hnchasing.com 相关报告 05-27 3 房地产市场高频数据周报（05.19-05.25）2025- 05-27 投资要点 此报告仅供内部客户参考 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 房地产市场高频数据周报（06.02-06.08）2025- 06-04 2 房地产市场高频数据周报（05.26-06.01）2025- 上周（6.2-6.6)股指表现为，上证指数上涨 1.13%，收报 3385.36 点，深证成 指上涨 1.42%，收报 10183.7 点，中小 100 上涨 1.62%，创业板指上涨 2.32%； 行业板块方面，通信、有色金属、电子涨幅居前；沪深两市日均成交额为 11842.1 亿元，沪深两市成交额较前一周上升 ...

Economic Factors - As of April, the US CPI increased by 2.3% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% for three consecutive months as of May[4] - Consumer inflation expectations rose to 6.6%, the highest since 1981, according to a May survey[4] Market Impact - The US stock market lost over $6 trillion in market value within two trading days following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2[29] - The dollar index fell by 8.3% year-to-date as of May 31, indicating pressure on the dollar's dominance[33] - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surged from 4.01% to 4.48% within five trading days, reflecting market volatility[29] Political Dynamics - The Republican Party holds a narrow majority in Congress, with 219 seats in the House and 53 in the Senate as of May 31[8] - Trump's tariff policies face legal challenges, but he may utilize other legal provisions to impose tariffs quickly[34] - The upcoming midterm elections in 2026 could pressure Trump to deliver on tariff promises to maintain voter support[36] International Relations - The US has not reached tariff agreements with major economies like the EU and Japan, complicating trade negotiations[38] - Other economies are adopting a cautious approach in negotiations with the US, influenced by China's strong countermeasures[38] - The potential for a "tech war" and "financial war" against China is increasing, with measures that could restrict Chinese access to technology and financial systems[46]

美国新任驻华大使庞德伟今年5月上旬抵京履职，上任还不到一个月，就获得了王毅外长的会见。这一 速度有些出人意料，因为对比起来，前任大使伯恩斯2022年上任后，足足坐了7个多月的冷板凳才见到 王毅外长，对比实在悬殊。这一会见固然是程序安排，但在中美关税"休战"背景下，恐怕也有一定的深 意。 美财长贝森特提议中美高层会面 一边施加压力，一边威胁恐吓，这是谈判的姿态吗？有记者就此事询问外交部发言人，发言人林剑也不 想多费口舌，只用一句话就打发了：中方已多次阐明在关税问题上的立场，具体问题建议向中方的主管 部门询问。 正是基于美方的所作所为，王毅外长强调，当下中美关系正处于关键路口，对话合作是唯一正确选择， 而美方需为双边关系重回正确轨道创造必要条件。 什么是"必要条件"？停止对华威逼利诱，停止假话连篇，拿出对话诚意。王毅短短几句话，既包含对过 去中美合作的认可，更暗含对美方近期行为的不满，以及期望美方做出正确改变。 王毅外长会见美国新任驻华大使 会谈桌上，王毅外长的话语清晰而有力。他首先肯定了上个月中美在日内瓦达成的经贸共识，强调中方 始终认真、严格地在落实这些协议。这句话不只是客套，它点出了一个重要事实：在关税"休 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the fluctuating tariff policies between the US and China since February 2025, highlighting the impact on Chinese businesses and their operational adjustments in response to these changes [1][2][5] - A timeline of tariff increases is provided, showing a cumulative increase of tariffs on Chinese goods reaching 104% by April 8, 2025, with significant changes in tax policies for small packages [2][5] - The article emphasizes the complexity of the international trade chain, particularly the uncertainties in international shipping due to fluctuating freight rates and geopolitical risks [6][8] Group 2 - The article outlines the implications of tariffs on different trade models, particularly the FOB (Free on Board) model, where the burden of tariff costs primarily falls on the purchasing party, affecting pricing strategies for Chinese manufacturers [8][11] - It highlights the challenges faced by small cross-border sellers due to changes in policies regarding international small packages, which are crucial for their operations [11][12] - The article notes that despite the tariff pressures, China's overall trade performance remains strong, with a 5.6% increase in total trade value in April 2025, indicating resilience in other markets [17][18] Group 3 - The article discusses potential new markets for Chinese brands, particularly in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Arab region, emphasizing the need for localization and understanding of cultural nuances [19][24][30] - It highlights the importance of deep localization strategies in Southeast Asia, where local regulations and market conditions require significant adaptation from Chinese companies [24][25] - The article points out the emerging opportunities in the Latin American market, particularly in Mexico, due to favorable trade agreements, while also noting the cultural barriers that need to be addressed [26][29] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the shift from low-cost strategies to high-quality manufacturing for Chinese products, suggesting that companies should focus on building brand value and sustainable pricing models [36][37] - It discusses the growing global interest in Chinese manufacturing, particularly in the 3C electronics sector, and the potential for cultural products and trendy items to succeed in international markets [40][41] - The article concludes with a call for companies to focus on long-term strategies and building strong brand identities rather than seeking quick profits, highlighting the importance of cultural understanding and product value [45][46]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Tokyo stock market rebounded due to expectations of progress in trade negotiations between China and the United States following a phone call between the two leaders on June 5 [1] - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 187.12 points, closing at 37,741.61 points, with a gain of 0.50%, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index increased by 12.86 points, closing at 2,769.33 points, with a gain of 0.47% [1] - The market sentiment was supported by the confirmation of a second round of ministerial talks on tariffs and an agreement on mutual visits between the leaders of China and the U.S. [1] Group 2 - On June 6, all sectors in the Tokyo Stock Exchange, except for three (Aquaculture and Agriculture, Glass and Ceramics Products, and Fiber Products), experienced gains, with steel, construction, and machinery sectors leading the increases [2] - The weakening of the yen against the dollar during the trading hours also provided support to the stock market [1] - Despite the overall positive movement, the Tokyo stock market showed limited enthusiasm for aggressive buying due to weak U.S. employment data released on June 5, which led to declines in major U.S. stock indices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views - **豆粕**: The domestic soybean meal may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The US soybean production area weather supports the bottom of the US soybean price, but the bumper harvest in South America and good recent planting weather limit the rebound height. In addition, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China affects the domestic soybean meal market. The M2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2940 and 3000 [8]. - **大豆**: The domestic soybean price is affected by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand, but the bumper harvest in South America and the expected increase in domestic production limit the rebound height. The A2507 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4080 and 4180 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **豆粕**: The spot price in East China is 2780, with a basis of - 179, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 29.8 tons, up 44.03% from last week and down 65.19% from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards. The long positions of the main contract are increasing, but the funds are flowing out [8]. - **大豆**: The spot price is 4160, with a basis of 22, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 582.88 tons, up 3.97% from last week and up 20.45% from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downwards. The short positions of the main contract are decreasing, and the funds are flowing out [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans, but the good recent planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pullback in the US market. The domestic arrival of imported soybeans reached a high in May, and the soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, and the market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12]. 3.3 Multi - Short Concerns - **豆粕**: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area. Bearish factors include the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans in June and the bumper harvest in South America [13]. - **大豆**: Bullish factors include the cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand. Bearish factors include the bumper harvest in South America and the expected increase in domestic production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot and futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal are provided from May 27 to June 5, along with the basis data [15][17]. - **Inventory**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. from 2015 to 2024. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans and soybean meal is also presented, with the oil - mill soybean inventory increasing and the soybean meal inventory remaining low [31][32][44]. - **Supply and Demand**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in 2024 - 2025 are detailed, along with the data on US soybean exports, oil - mill soybean crushing volume, and the situation of the pig industry [33][34][38]. 3.5 Position Data There is no specific information about position data other than the change in the main contract's long and short positions mentioned in the views and strategies section.

2025 年 6 月 6 日 商 品 研 究 碳酸锂：基本面疲弱，关注中美关税修复的可能性 | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | 2507合约（收盘价） | | 60,100 | -980 | -280 | -1,000 | -5,860 | -16,380 | | 2507合约（成交量） | | 244,592 | -168,647 | -143,548 | -25,582 | 130,054 | 234,960 | | 2507合约（持仓量） | | 231,588 | -14,062 | -52,019 | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a moderate recovery in the Chinese economy, driven by consumption and investment, with service consumption showing strong recovery and high-tech manufacturing investment leading the way [8][15][38] - The A-share market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with growth in sectors such as consumer electronics, internet services, and semiconductor industries, while sectors like beauty care and pharmaceuticals are underperforming [9][15] - Recent monetary policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools, are aimed at supporting technology innovation and consumer sectors, injecting liquidity confidence into the market [8][15][10] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,384.10, with a slight increase of 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.58% to 10,203.50 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 13.83 and 36.51 respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][15] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 30,772.79, down by 0.67%, while the Nikkei 225 saw a slight increase of 0.62% to 26,643.39 [4] Industry Analysis - The automotive market saw retail sales of 1.93 million vehicles in May, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with cumulative sales for the year reaching 8.802 million, up 9% [5][8] - The electrical equipment sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with a 1.79% increase in the electrical equipment index, lagging behind the 2.34% rise of the CSI 300 index [17] - The photovoltaic industry experienced significant growth, with a 214.68% year-on-year increase in new installations in April, totaling 45.22 GW [21][22] Financial Sector Insights - The securities industry saw a recovery in 2024, with a revenue increase of 11.15% and a net profit increase of 21.35%, while Q1 2025 showed a more substantial growth of 24.60% in revenue and 83.48% in net profit [31][33] - The brokerage sector is expected to maintain a stable operating environment, with a focus on wealth management and low-valuation stocks as potential investment opportunities [33][35] Energy Sector Insights - The electricity supply and demand situation remains stable, with total electricity consumption in April reaching 772.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [38] - The share of thermal power generation remains dominant at 66.46%, while renewable energy sources like wind and solar are showing increasing contributions [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, oil prices generally fluctuated at a low level. The easing of Sino - US tariff friction led to a slight rebound in oil prices at the beginning of the month, but the uncertainty after the suspension period and the continuous accelerated production increase of OPEC+ suppressed the upside space. Unless major countries make significant concessions to the US, tariff friction will re - affect the market to some extent after the 90 - day suspension period [16]. - OPEC+ has promoted an accelerated production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for three consecutive months, strengthening the tone of accelerated production increase. The oil market may face continuous accelerated production increase in the future [16]. - Under the resonance of weak macro and micro fundamentals, the long - term trend of oil prices is weak. However, the third quarter is the traditional peak season for crude oil consumption, which may resist the downward trend to some extent [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Saudi OSP - **Price Changes in July Compared to June**: - **Asia**: Saudi Arabia slightly lowered the premiums/discounts of crude oil sold to Asia in June. For July, all grades of crude oil were lowered by $0 - 0.2 per barrel, and after the reduction, they remained at a nearly two - year low [5][10]. - **Mediterranean and Europe**: All grades of crude oil's premiums/discounts to the Mediterranean and Europe were raised by $1.8 per barrel. After the increase, the premiums/discounts were near a one - and - a - half - year high [5][10]. - **America**: All grades of crude oil were raised by $0 - 0.1 per barrel, and the absolute value was still the highest globally. Saudi Arabia exports less crude oil to the Americas [10]. - **Analysis of Saudi's Actions**: The general reduction of premiums/discounts in Asia, combined with Saudi Arabia's continuous push for OPEC+ to accelerate production increase, shows that the accelerated production increase is an action by Saudi Arabia to seize market share. The increase in premiums/discounts in Europe is because the narrowing of the Brent - WTI spread makes it more expensive for Europe to buy US crude oil, increasing its interest in crude oil from other regions [13]. 3.2 Crude Oil Market Conditions - **Price Trend**: In May, oil prices fluctuated at a low level. The easing of Sino - US tariff friction led to a slight rebound at the beginning. The uncertainty after the 90 - day suspension period and OPEC+'s continuous accelerated production increase limited the upside. The long - term trend of oil prices is weak, but the third - quarter peak season may resist the decline [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil Position Report**: The net long positions of Brent management funds are more supply - dependent. The net long positions increased significantly in the week ending April 1st due to supply tightening. However, with OPEC+'s accelerated production increase and macro risks, the net long positions have dropped significantly and remained low [19]. - **WTI Crude Oil Position Report**: WTI futures net long positions focus more on the macro - situation. Due to poor economic prospects, the net long positions of WTI management funds declined earlier this year and remained low. After a sharp drop in WTI oil prices, the net long positions recovered slightly due to short - covering but then continued to decline slowly [22]. - **Crude Oil Futures Structure**: The near - month structure of each crude oil futures generally remains in Back, but the shape has flattened significantly. Except for SC crude oil, the far - month structure has all turned to Contango, reflecting strong current situation and weak expectations [25]. - **Crude Oil Monthly Spread**: Similar to the forward curve, M1 - M12 is generally below M1 - M6 and M1 - M9, but M1 - M2 remains strong. The M1 - M2 of Middle - East Oman crude oil is the weakest due to OPEC+'s accelerated production increase in the Middle East [28]. - **Cross - Market Futures Spread**: In the past month, Brent has been continuously weakening against WTI's first - line contract. The narrowing of the spread between the two main contracts is more obvious, with a difference of only $0.66 per barrel at the time of writing, compared with $3.02 per barrel on May 5th. This increases the cost of European imports of US crude oil, explaining the decrease in US crude oil exports and Saudi Arabia's significant increase in European premiums/discounts [31]. - **Cross - Market Spot Spread**: The spot price spread between Brent and WTI shows similar changes to the futures [33]. - **Refined Product Spot Price**: The overall trend of refined products follows that of crude oil. During the new round of decline at the end of April, the decline speed of refined products slowed down slightly. In late May, the prices of refined products showed signs of weakness when crude oil prices changed little, which is a bad signal considering the approaching US driving peak season [35][36]. - **Refined Product Spot Crack**: During the oil price decline at the end of April, the crack spreads in various regions rebounded slightly due to the slower decline of refined products. This reflects that short - term "terminal demand has not significantly declined" supports the refined product market under the influence of trade friction and OPEC+ policies. However, the crack spreads turned downward in late May when crude oil prices fluctuated little, indicating weakening terminal demand [39].