Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Highlights - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In January, the bond market is entering a phase where negative factors are gradually materializing. Although the short - term possibility of a second interest rate cut is low and the policy expectations are not high, the central bank still has room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, with a loose orientation unchanged. The supply - demand mismatch in the first quarter may present allocation opportunities, and the market may remain volatile in the short term [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: GDP data released in the morning met expectations. Despite the marginal weakening of economic activities in December, the short - term possibility of a second interest rate cut is low, and policy expectations are not high. Coupled with the increased disturbance of the tax period to the capital market this week, treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly and closed slightly lower across the board [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds with various maturities changed within a narrow range. The decline of long - term active bonds was within 1bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 reported 1.8405%, down 0.25bp [9] - **Capital Market**: The inter - bank capital market was stable. The net reverse repurchase investment in the open market today was 7.22 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index changed little. The overnight DR in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated within a narrow range around 1.32%. The 7 - day capital interest rate rose 3.42bp to 1.48%. The medium - and long - term capital was stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate fluctuated within a narrow range around 1.63% - 1.64% [10] - **Conclusion**: In January, the bond market's negative factors are gradually being realized. However, the central bank still has room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The supply - demand mismatch in the first quarter may bring allocation opportunities. In the short term, after the release of economic data this week, there will be a 1.5 - month data window period. The implementation of the structural interest rate cut last week may mean entering a policy observation period, and the easing expectations may not significantly increase before the Two Sessions in March, and the market may maintain a volatile trend [11][12] 2. Industry News - **GDP Data**: In 2025, China's GDP was 14,018.79 billion yuan, a 5% increase over the previous year at constant prices. The added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.9%, the added value of the service industry increased by 5.4%, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7%, and the fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% [13] - **Housing Price Data**: In December 2025, the prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities generally declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened. The prices of new homes in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the decline of second - hand housing prices decreased by 0.9% [13] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of treasury bond futures on January 19, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] - **Money Market**: The report includes information on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for eight consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50% as of January 20, 2026 [1] - The last adjustment to the LPR occurred in May 2025, when both the one-year and five-year LPRs were reduced by 10 basis points [1] - A structural "rate cut" was implemented on January 19, 2026, with a reduction of 0.25 percentage points in the re-lending and rediscount rates to support key strategic areas [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicated that there is still room for further interest rate cuts in 2026, citing stable exchange rates and a favorable internal banking environment [2] - The net interest margin of banks has stabilized at 1.42% for two consecutive quarters, which may facilitate future rate cuts [2] - The PBOC's recent adjustments to various re-lending rates are expected to lower banks' interest costs and stabilize net interest margins, creating space for potential interest rate reductions [2]

Core Insights - The real estate market in Guangzhou is experiencing a nuanced shift, with new home prices declining more sharply while second-hand home price declines are narrowing, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1][10][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - In December 2025, new home prices in Guangzhou fell by 0.6% month-on-month, with the decline accelerating by 0.1%, while second-hand home prices decreased by 1.0%, but the decline narrowed by 0.2% [6][10]. - The performance of the top four cities shows that while new home prices in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are still under pressure, Shanghai managed a slight increase of 0.2% [1][3]. Group 2: Buyer Behavior - The decision-making logic of buyers in Guangzhou is evolving, with a shift towards stabilizing attitudes among homeowners, leading to a reduction in aggressive price cuts for second-hand homes [11][13]. - Many homeowners who were eager to sell have already lowered their prices significantly, resulting in a more stable market for remaining sellers who are less willing to drop prices further [13][14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The monetary environment is expected to remain loose, with potential for interest rate cuts, which would benefit homebuyers [14][15]. - The real estate market in Guangzhou is projected to follow an "L-shaped" trend in 2026, indicating a gradual upward movement in prices, particularly for quality assets in desirable locations [14][19].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, while also announcing a reduction in various lending rates, indicating a potential for further monetary easing in 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: LPR and Interest Rate Adjustments - The LPR has remained unchanged for eight consecutive months [2][5]. - Starting January 19, 2026, the PBOC will lower the re-lending and re-discount rates by 0.25 percentage points, with new rates set at 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year agricultural loans respectively [2][5]. - The PBOC's average required reserve ratio is currently at 6.3%, suggesting room for further reductions [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Analysis and Future Projections - Analysts suggest that the easing of currency constraints and stabilization of bank net interest margins may allow for a policy rate reduction of 20-30 basis points within the year [6][7]. - The central bank is expected to continue increasing liquidity and utilizing various market operations to maintain ample liquidity in 2026 [7]. - Traditional tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions may have limited scope, leading to a greater reliance on structural tools and fiscal measures to achieve growth and balance objectives [7].

1月20日，中国央行公布最新LPR报价。 而LPR上一次调整则是在2025年5月，1年期和5年期以上LPR均下调10个基点。 | LPR市场公告 LPR | LPR简介 | LPR报价行成员 | 历史数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贷款市场报价利率(LPR) | | | | | 2026-01-20 9:00 | | | 期限 | | | LPR(%) | | | | 17 | | | 3.00 | | | | 5Y | | | 3.50 | | 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2026年1月20日贷款市场报价利率(LPR)为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。 以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。 | | | 中国人民纪行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial sector (specifically for treasury bonds) is "oscillation" [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The 2025 annual GDP of China reached 1,401,879 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year - on - year at constant prices, meeting the target set at the beginning of the year. The Q4 GDP had a stable sequential growth. In December, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and social consumer goods retail were lower than market expectations, while the export growth rate and the actual year - on - year growth of industrial added value of large - scale industries exceeded market expectations. The service industry production index in December increased by 0.8 percentage points compared to November. The real estate sales volume and housing prices continued to decline in December last year and in the first half of January this year. The central bank cut the re - loan and re - discount rates by 0.25 percentage points on January 19, 2026, and indicated there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts throughout the year. The treasury bond futures' main contracts mostly had a slight correction, with the 30 - year variety falling more. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher, then fell in the morning session and fluctuated narrowly until the close. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures' main contract TL2603 fell 0.22%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2603 remained flat [3] Important Information - Open market: On Monday, the central bank conducted 158.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 86.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 72.2 billion yuan [3] - Money market: On Monday, the isolation interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48%, compared with 1.44% in the previous trading day [3] - Cash bond market: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly increased compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year treasury bond rose 0.29 basis points to 1.41%, the 5 - year fell 0.01 basis points to 1.61%, the 10 - year fell 0.31 basis points to 1.84%, and the 30 - year rose 3.81 basis points to 2.34% [3] - Economic data: In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, growing 5.0% year - on - year at constant prices. In Q4, China's GDP increased by 4.5% year - on - year and 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year (market expected a 2.4% decline), and in 2024, it increased by 3.2%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing in 2025 decreased by 8.7% year - on - year (12.9% in 2024), and the sales volume decreased by 12.6% year - on - year (17.1% in 2024). The added value of large - scale industries in 2025 increased by 5.9% year - on - year (5.8% in 2024). In December, the added value of large - scale industries actually increased by 5.2% year - on - year (market expected 4.9%, 4.8% in November). In Q4 2025, the national capacity utilization rate of large - scale industries was 74.9%, 0.3 percentage points higher than in Q3 and 1.3 percentage points lower than the same period in 2024. The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2025 were 501,202 billion yuan, growing 3.7% year - on - year (3.5% in 2024). In December, the retail sales increased by 0.9% year - on - year (market expected 1.5%, 1.3% in November). The added value of the service industry in 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year (5.1% in 2024). In December, the service industry production index increased by 5.0% year - on - year (4.2% in November). In December, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, the same as the previous month and the same period last year [3] Market Logic - The 2025 GDP growth met market expectations. The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly had a slight correction, and the 30 - year variety fell more. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored [4] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [5]

【导读】LPR连续8个月保持不变，符合市场预期 中国基金报记者 晨曦 刚刚，最新LPR公布！ 1月20日9时，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2026年1月20日贷款市场报价利率 （LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。 这是LPR自去年6月份以来连续8个月保持不变，符合市场预期。 | 开开外付出。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 明限 | LPR (%) | | | IY | 3.00 | | | 5Y | 3.50 | 贷款市场报价利率由各报价行按公开市场操作利率加点形成的方式报价，由全国银行间同业拆借中心计 算得出，为银行贷款提供定价参考。目前，LPR包括1年期和5年期以上两个品种。 LPR报价行目前包括20家银行，每月20日（遇节假日顺延）9时前，各报价行以0.05个百分点为步长， 向全国银行间同业拆借中心提交报价，全国银行间同业拆借中心按去掉最高和最低报价后算术平均，并 向0.05%的整数倍就近取整计算得出LPR，于当日9时公布。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些 ...

1月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2026年1月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR） 为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，均较上期维持不变。这也是LPR连续8个月维持不变。 图片来源：中国货币网 专家认为，2026年开年第一期LPR继续"按兵不动"符合预期。从LPR报价机制看，作为LPR定价主要参 考的7天期逆回购操作利率并未发生变化，因此LPR较难下降。 与此同时，企业融资和居民信贷成本均保持低位运行。数据显示，2025年12月，新发放企业贷款加权平 均利率和新发放个人住房贷款加权平均利率均大约在3.1%，自2018年下半年以来，分别下降了2.5个和 2.6个百分点。 央行副行长邹澜日前已明确表示，今年降准降息还有一定空间。 邹澜分析，从政策利率看，外部约束方面，目前人民币汇率比较稳定，美元处于降息通道，总体看汇率 不构成很强的约束；内部约束方面，2025年以来银行净息差已出现企稳迹象，连续两个季度保持在 1.42%，2026年还有规模较大的三年期及五年期等长期存款到期重定价，央行也下调了各项再贷款利 率，这些都有助于降低银行付息成本、稳定净息差，为降息创造一定空间。 ...

【导读】LPR连续8个月保持不变，符合市场预期 中国基金报记者 晨曦 这是LPR自去年6月份以来连续8个月保持不变，符合市场预期。 贷款市场报价利率由各报价行按公开市场操作利率加点形成的方式报价，由全国银行间同业 拆借中心计算得出，为银行贷款提供定价参考。目前，LPR包括1年期和5年期以上两个品 种。 刚刚，最新LPR公布！ 1月20日9时，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2026年1月20日贷款市场报 价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR 之前有效。 据介绍，这种结构性"降息"与全面降息有很大区别，不是通过下调政策利率带动LPR下行。 再贷款是央行对银行的贷款，不是央行直接向企业发放贷款。下调再贷款、再贴现利率后， 拿到更低成本资金的银行，或以更低利率向小微企业、科技创新、绿色转型等重点领域发放 贷款，降低实体经济综合融资成本。 中国人民银行副行长邹澜1月15日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，今年降准降息还有一定空间。 中国人民银行下调各项再贷款利率有助于降低银行付息成本、稳定净息差，为降息创造一定 空间。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬近 ...

Core Viewpoint - The January LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remains unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%, indicating stability in the lending rates despite previous expectations for adjustments [1][4]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The 1-year and 5-year LPR have not changed for eight consecutive months since a decrease of 10 basis points in May 2025 [3]. - The current LPR rates are 3.00% for 1-year and 3.50% for 5-year, consistent with the previous month [1][4]. Group 2: Future Expectations - Analysts suggest that LPR adjustments may not occur until after the MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) rate is adjusted, potentially delaying any changes until March [6]. - There is a significant focus on maintaining the stability of banks' operational rhythms and pricing systems, which could be disrupted by premature LPR reductions [7]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China indicates that there is still room for both reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, with the current average RRR at 6.3% [9]. - Analysts estimate that there is approximately 1.3 percentage points of room for RRR cuts, suggesting a "hidden lower limit" around 5.0% [9]. - The use of open market operations, such as government bond transactions, may provide liquidity to the banking system, indicating that monetary policy easing will not be constrained by RRR cut limits [9].