Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The Sino - US trade negotiation results briefly boosted market confidence, and policy - side benefits have basically materialized. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. Steel output has risen, inventories have declined, and apparent demand has rebounded. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and weak expectations may not have changed substantially. Technically, the short - term rally last week was followed by a downward trend this week, and the medium - term downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation phase [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. Iron ore demand may be further suppressed if a production - restriction policy is introduced. The global supply of iron ore is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventories are decreasing at a slower pace, and the high proportion of trade ore inventories exerts pressure on futures prices. Technically, the price may enter an oscillation phase after a short - term rebound [5]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Conditions**: The Sino - US trade negotiation results briefly boosted confidence, and policy - side benefits fully materialized. The real estate market in core cities stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out, with new construction areas dropping significantly and completion and construction areas still showing large year - on - year declines [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, steel output increased, factory inventories decreased, social inventories continued to decline, total inventories dropped, and apparent demand rebounded. Steel mills believe the industry needs to cut production, but there is no incentive for voluntary production cuts [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term sharp rebound last week, prices faced downward pressure this week, and the medium - term downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation phase [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see. Wait patiently for the price to complete bottom - building and then go long at low prices [2]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices mostly declined compared to last week. For example, the closing price of the thread steel futures main contract was 3061 yuan/ton, down 2.11% from last week [3]. - **Production**: The output of national building material steel mills' thread steel was 226.53 million tons, up 1.34% from last week, while hot - rolled coil output was 311.98 million tons, down 2.62% [3]. - **Inventory**: Five major varieties of social inventories were 993.67 million tons, down 3.81% from last week. Thread social inventories were 434.88 million tons, down 6.55% [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. The impact of the US tariff increase on steel exports has not yet emerged. Last week, the iron - water output of 247 steel mills exceeded 244.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous week [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: If a production - restriction policy is introduced, it will further suppress iron ore demand. The global supply of iron ore is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventories are decreasing at a slower pace, and the high proportion of trade ore inventories exerts pressure on futures prices [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price has fallen to near the long - term trend line, and a short - term rebound may indicate the end of the medium - term downward trend and the entry into an oscillation phase [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract was 728.5 yuan/dry ton, up 0.48% from the previous day and down 1.15% from last week [5]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments were 1648.9 million tons, up 2.94% from last week, and Brazilian shipments were 751.1 million tons, up 37.04% [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories totaled 14166.09 million tons, down 0.51% from last week, and port trade ore inventories were 9718.75 million tons, down 0.03% [5]. 3.3 Industry News As market sentiment faded, steel prices first rose and then fell. The price of Tangshan steel billet decreased by 50 yuan to 2930 yuan/ton. Steel mills' coke price reduction of 50 yuan was implemented. Iron ore spot prices rebounded. The average iron - water cost of Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills decreased by 4 yuan to 2148 yuan/ton, and the average steel billet cost decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 2898 yuan/ton. The average profit of billet - making steel mills decreased by 46 yuan to 32 yuan/ton, the lowest in two months [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock Index: Neutral [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - April economic data declined compared to March but remained resilient under the tariff war. Social retail sales were up 5.1% year-on-year, supported by the "trade-in" policy. Social credit demand was weak in April, with cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and M2 up 8% year-on-year. The China-US joint statement and subsequent policies are expected to boost the stock market [1]. - The internal policy push is the main theme for the stock index in 2025. The revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies has narrowed for three consecutive quarters, and the net profit has rebounded by about 4%. However, ROE is still at the bottoming stage. These measures will help companies repair their balance sheets and lift the stock market valuation [1]. - Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance, with the 30-year and 10-year contracts up 0.03%, the 5-year down 0.04%, and the 2-year down 0.03%. The central bank's reverse repurchase operation and other factors have changed the bond market environment, and the short-term bond market is expected to be weak [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index**: April economic data was resilient, and policies such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the entry of long-term funds into the market, are expected to support the stock market. The revenue and profit of A-share listed companies are showing signs of improvement, and the stock market valuation is expected to rise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures had mixed performance, and the bond market environment has changed due to policy and economic factors. The short-term bond market is expected to be weak [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: All major contracts of stock index futures declined, with IM down 1.56%, IC down 1.31%, IF down 0.89%, and IH down 0.53% [3]. - **Stock Indexes**: All major stock indexes declined, with the CSI 1000 down 1.68%, the CSI 500 down 1.45%, the SSE 50 down 0.49%, and the SSE 300 down 0.91% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30-year and 10-year contracts rose, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts fell. The 30-year contract was up 0.15%, and the 10-year contract was up 0.02% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds showed different trends [3]. 3.3 Market News - In May, the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, down from 3.6% last month, and the 1-year LPR was 3%, down from 3.1% last month [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Charts show the trends of major contracts and their basis [6][7][9][10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts show the trends of major contracts, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads [13][15][16][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts show the trends of various currency exchange rates, including the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the RMB and other currencies [20][21][22][24][25]

Group 1 - The domestic money market interest rates continue the trend of "short-term rise and long-term decline" as the demand for funds increases ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival, pushing up short-term rates [1] - As of May 20, the overnight, 1-week, and 2-week Shanghai Interbank Offered Rates (Shibor) were reported at 1.509%, 1.556%, and 1.65%, respectively, showing increases of 10.3, 6.6, and 9.4 basis points compared to May 13 [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.1 percentage point reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate effective May 8, and a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions effective May 15, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity into the market [1] Group 2 - On May 20, the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and the 5-year LPR were both reduced by 0.1 percentage points to 3% and 3.5%, respectively, marking the first LPR cut in eight months [1] - The PBOC is expected to inject liquidity through reverse repos to stabilize the impact of the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival and month-end on the money market [2] - The expectation is that the money market interest rates will continue to exhibit the "short-term rise and long-term decline" trend in the following week [2]

1、 《 5月 LPR 报价下调，还有空间》摘要 4、 《 财险公司一季度经营透视》摘要 ■ 银行业绩分化加剧： 国有行净利润增速转正（+0.08%），但股份行、城农商行持续负增长；城农 商行利息净收入改善支撑其降幅收窄，关注区域性银行结构性机会。 ■ 息差 压力边际缓解 ： Q1净息差1.43%（同比-12BP），负债成本压降驱动降幅收窄；5月降准降息 叠加存款利率下行空间打开，后续息差企稳预期增强。 ■ 零售资产风险需警惕： 不良率环比升至1.51%，主因零售贷款风险暴露；中小银行（城农商行）不 良率上升明显，政策落地对居民收入改善效果成关键变量。 ■ 资本补充迫在眉睫： 核心一级资本充足率10.7%（环比下降），信贷开门红消耗资本；国有大行已 获1650亿特别国债注资，中小银行或借地方专项债补充资本 。 ■ 政策红利释放方向： 降准降息+结构性工具加码，支撑银行基本面修复；国有行资本充足率 （17.79%）和抗风险能力突出，高股息策略价值凸显。 ■ 行业整体高增长但分化加剧： 2025年Q1财险行业保费增5.4%、净利润同比+66.91%，但头部5家 公司（人保/平安/太保/国寿/英大）贡献超80%利润 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced slight weakness with the first LPR reduction of the year, leading to a potential observation period for policy effectiveness and possible increased liquidity supply from the central bank [1][5] Market Performance - Government bond futures mostly declined, with the 30-year main contract down 0.03% and the 10-year main contract up 0.03% [2] - The interbank major interest rate bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.75 basis points to 1.6625% [2] Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield at 3.97% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields rose significantly, with the 30-year yield reaching a new high of 3.1% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield decreased by 0.4 basis points to 3.256% [3] Primary Market Activity - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had lower winning yields than market estimates, with 5-year and 10-year yields at 1.5195% and 1.6495%, respectively [4] - Local government bonds in Heilongjiang showed strong demand, with bid multiples exceeding 23 times [4] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 3570 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1770 billion yuan [5] - The LPR was lowered by 10 basis points for both 1-year and 5-year terms, which is expected to reduce financing costs for enterprises and residents [5] Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the 10-year government bond yield may fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.8%, advocating for a strategy of increasing holdings during adjustments [7] - Citic Fixed Income notes that the average weighted loan interest rate has dropped to a historical low of 3.75%, with expectations for further declines following the LPR cut [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic stock market shows a mixed trend, with some indices rising and some falling. The impact of Trump's tariff policy on market risk preference has weakened, and it is recommended to buy certain stock index futures on dips. The bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure due to tariff negotiations, but the subsequent capital supply is expected to be loose. The precious metals market is under pressure due to the expected release of geopolitical risks and the cautious attitude of the Fed. The prices of various non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations, showing different trends and investment opportunities [2][4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index unchanged, the ChiNext Index down 0.33%, and the North - bound 50 up 2.37%. The total trading volume of the two markets was 108.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The financing amount decreased by 1.883 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate increased by 11.70bp to 1.6540%. [2] - **Macro News**: In April, China's social consumer goods retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% year - on - year, and the national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year. The 30 - year US Treasury yield exceeded 5%, and Moody's downgraded the US credit rating [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy IF stock index long positions on dips, and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all rose, with increases of 0.37%, 0.13%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **News**: In April, economic data showed certain disturbances due to tariffs, with structural differentiation. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 9.2 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure, but considering the decline in capital interest rates after reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, it is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold rose 0.97% to 758.02 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.25% to 8111.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold and silver fell slightly [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine shows new signs of progress, and the Fed maintains a cautious monetary policy stance. International gold prices are expected to continue to correct in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for gold, and pay attention to the 700 yuan/gram support level. Silver is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper oscillated and rebounded. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly. The short - term rebound space of copper prices may be limited [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum fell under pressure. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventory decline slowed down. It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - month positive spread opportunities of aluminum [11]. - **Zinc**: The price of zinc fell slightly. The zinc concentrate port inventory continued to rise, and the zinc price still has a certain downward risk in the medium term [12]. - **Lead**: The price of lead fell slightly. The regenerative lead enterprise's operating rate continued to decline, and the short - term lead price showed a strong oscillation [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel oscillated. The cost of nickel is expected to loosen, and the inventory may return to the accumulation trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the change of LME nickel 0 - 3 month premium [14]. - **Tin**: The price of tin rose slightly. The supply of tin is expected to loosen in the medium term. If the downstream demand remains weak, the center of tin prices may move down [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate fell. The fundamentals lack favorable drivers, and the short - term disk may run weakly [16]. - **Alumina**: The price of alumina rose. The mine and supply side are disturbed. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [17]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel fell slightly. The cost support is enhanced, but the terminal procurement is still cautious. The short - term may maintain a narrow - range oscillation [18]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The price of steel showed a weak oscillation. The apparent demand for rebar increased slightly, and the hot - rolled coil may show a strong oscillation in the short term. The long - term demand is still under pressure [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore fell slightly. The supply increased, and the demand for molten iron is expected to decline. The short - term price of iron ore will oscillate [22][23]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass is expected to be weak in the medium term. The supply of soda ash is expected to decrease, but the inventory pressure is still large, and the disk is expected to be weak [24][25]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell slightly. The demand for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to wait and see [26][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon fell slightly. The industry has over - capacity, and the price may continue to fall. It is recommended to wait and see [30][31]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: The price of rubber oscillated and rebounded. There is an expectation of rubber storage and production reduction, but the demand is in the off - season. The market has different views on the rise and fall of prices [33]. - **Crude Oil**: The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil rose, and the INE crude oil price fell. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the medium term [36][37]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol fell. The production profit is high, but the downstream performance is weak. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [38]. - **Urea**: The price of urea fell. The supply and demand are both strong, but the price increase is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [39]. - **PVC**: The price of PVC rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weak [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol rose. The industry is in the de - stocking stage, but attention should be paid to risks [41][42]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA rose slightly. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to be strong. The processing fee has support, but attention should be paid to risks [43]. - **Para - Xylene**: The price of para - xylene rose. It is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. Attention should be paid to risks [44]. - **Polyethylene PE**: The price of polyethylene is expected to maintain an oscillation. The supply pressure increases in the second quarter, and the demand is in the off - season [45][46]. - **Polypropylene PP**: The price of polypropylene is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. The supply has no new capacity in May, and the demand is in the off - season [47]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The price of hogs is mainly stable, with a weakening trend. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the medium term [49]. - **Eggs**: The price of eggs is weak. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is general. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies for near - month contracts [50]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of domestic soybean meal fell. The short - term supply of soybeans is large, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [51][52]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price of oils and fats is expected to oscillate weakly. The production of palm oil is recovering, and the US biodiesel policy may be lower than expected [53][56]. - **Sugar**: The price of sugar oscillated. The international market supply tension may ease, and the domestic sugar price may weaken [57][58]. - **Cotton**: The price of cotton is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory is being depleted [59].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points for both the 1-year and 5-year terms, adjusting them to 3.00% and 3.50% respectively [1][3] - The recent easing of monetary policy, including the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, is expected to stabilize the macroeconomic environment and support the real estate market [1][2][3] - The reduction in housing provident fund loan rates by 0.25 percentage points is anticipated to further lower mortgage costs for homebuyers, potentially leading to a decrease in commercial loan rates [3][9] Group 2 - The cancellation of the lower limit for first and second home loan rates at the national level has allowed some cities to reduce their mortgage rates to around 3.0%, the lowest historical level [7] - In Beijing, the expected adjustments to mortgage rates following the LPR reduction could bring first and second home loan rates down to 3.05% and 3.25% respectively, marking a historical low [7] - The LPR reduction is also expected to lower existing mortgage rates, alleviating the repayment pressure on homeowners [9]

1-4 月地产链数据联合解读 20250519 摘要 • 4 月房地产销售面积和金额同比小幅增长，优于预期，主要受益于低基数、 宏观流动性以及政策支持。淡季降幅在正常范围内，预示全年数据可能不 会太差。 • 房地产投资端仍处于去库存状态，但去年和今年一季度拿地面积增加，预 示下半年新开工数据有望修复，明年或将企稳，竣工数据预计保持平稳并 逐步向上。 • 房地产行业总体库存水平明显回落，尤其是一二线城市去化能力较强。房 价降幅收窄，环比下降城市减少，预计未来几个月环比大概率正增长，同 比与去年基本持平。 • 政府财政发力城中村改造和城市更新，资金投入超预期，推动市场修复。 龙头公司拿地积极，预计四季度周期底部加杠杆逻辑将增强市场稳定性。 • 建筑行业出口数据超预期，但投资、社融及基建投资增速有所减弱，电力 领域投资增速表现突出。4 月新增社融和中长期贷款下滑，与地产环比减 弱相对应。 Q&A 请简要概述 2025 年第一季度房地产行业的销售情况及其背后的原因。 2025 年第一季度房地产行业的销售情况总体表现良好，尤其是重点城市的销 售面积和销售金额均同比正增长。具体来看，40 个大中型重点城市的销售面积 同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of monetary policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, aimed at stabilizing the market and boosting economic activity [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Housing Market - The reduction in the housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points will directly alleviate the interest burden on borrowers, leading to a decrease in monthly payments for home loans [1]. - For a 1 million yuan, 30-year loan, the monthly payment will drop from 4,136 yuan to 4,003 yuan, resulting in a total interest savings of approximately 47,600 yuan [1]. - The new interest rates will apply to newly issued housing provident fund loans, while existing loans will see a rate reduction starting January 1, 2026 [1]. Group 2: Consumer and Business Financing - The decrease in the reserve requirement ratio allows banks to have more funds available for lending, which is expected to lower interest rates on consumer loans and credit cards, thus benefiting residents with high consumption needs [3]. - The reduction in financial institutions' borrowing costs will likely lead to lower loan rates for businesses, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises [3]. - The 5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement for auto finance and leasing companies will enhance their lending capacity, potentially leading to lower auto loan rates [3]. Group 3: Overall Economic Impact - The overall effect of the rate cuts is anticipated to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand, contributing to a healthier economic environment [4]. - The expected decline in deposit rates and yields on financial products may prompt residents to reconsider their asset allocation strategies [5][6]. - The increase in market liquidity is likely to boost demand for stocks and bonds, driving up stock prices and lowering bond yields [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The outcome of the China - US trade negotiations far exceeded market expectations, boosting market confidence. The poor credit data in April confirmed the necessity of significant measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the policy - side positives have basically materialized. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while the low - tier city real estate market is still in the bottom - building process. The market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, with short - term support from the significant mutual tariff reduction between China and the US, but the weak expectations may not have changed substantially [2]. - Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, and steel billets have good profits with high export growth. The molten iron production is in a recovery trend, but if a production restriction policy is introduced in the future, it will further suppress iron ore demand. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and the high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices. Short - term price rebounds are mainly boosted by the optimistic progress of trade negotiations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Situation**: The market has rebounded from the low level. The production has increased, factory inventories have declined, social inventories have continued to fall, total inventories have decreased, and apparent demand has recovered. The rumor of production restrictions has limited impact on the market, but the production side believes that the industry needs to reduce production [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: In the short - term, there has been a significant rebound, and the downward trend has entered a low - level oscillation [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see. After the negative factors are fully priced in and sufficient adjustments are made, consider going long at low prices. Be cautious about chasing up to prevent significant adjustments after the short - term positives are realized [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of threaded rod and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have shown certain changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3082 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan (-1.15%) from the previous day and up 60 yuan (1.99%) from the previous week [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The output of threaded rods has increased by 1.34% week - on - week, while the output of hot - rolled coils has decreased by 2.62% week - on - week. The social and factory inventories of both have declined [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and steel billet exports are growing rapidly. The molten iron production is in a recovery trend, but future production restriction policies may suppress iron ore demand. The supply side is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and high trade ore inventory ratio put pressure on prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The price has fallen to the long - term trend line and rebounded in the short - term, indicating that the medium - term downward trend may end and enter an oscillation or rebound phase [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Mainly judge based on technical trends. Hold short positions lightly and exit in time when the price is low in the future [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement prices of iron ore futures and spot prices have changed. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 728 yuan/dry ton, up 32 yuan (4.60%) from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Australian iron ore shipments increased by 0.19% week - on - week, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 16.42% week - on - week. The port inventory decreased by 0.51% week - on - week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports decreased by 72.62 tons week - on - week, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 8.68 tons. The total inventory in 47 ports decreased by 17.72 tons week - on - week, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 11.08 tons [6]. - Mysteel research shows that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points week - on - week, and the steel mill profitability rate increased by 0.44 percentage points week - on - week. The average daily molten iron output decreased by 0.87 tons week - on - week [6]. - According to Mysteel, mainstream steel mills in the Shandong market lowered the coke purchase price, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in the Shandong market also lowered the coke purchase price by 55 yuan/ton [7]. - SteelSilver e - commerce data shows that the total urban inventory this week is 772.11 tons, a decrease of 41.98 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory of construction steel decreased by 26.88 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 12.82 tons [7].