Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is trading steadily above $4150, with the core driver being the strong consolidation pattern before the December policy path is finalized. The overall situation is in a "strong consolidation - waiting for a catalyst" phase [1]. - The continuous strengthening of the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year is the core factor for gold to maintain a narrow - range consolidation above $4150. Although the initial jobless claims and durable goods orders in the US are generally strong, they do not change the market's judgment on the December interest rate cut. The weak rebound of the US dollar and the low - level long - term US Treasury yields keep the downward trend of real interest rates stable, providing a clearer medium - term support for gold. In the context of thin holiday liquidity, the market shows the characteristics of "weak pullback and strong support" [3]. - If the December FOMC meeting continues the loose path, the gold price is expected to further break through $4200 and approach the previous high range again [3]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Key Information - Multiple US policymakers pointed out in public speeches that the slowdown in employment and the decline in inflation will continue to affect the policy direction, and they did not rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts in December [2]. - European economic officials said that the eurozone needs to speed up internal capital expenditure and industrial chain adjustment to reduce its structural dependence on external demand, and the EU is studying a new round of industrial and trade coordination plan [2]. - Ukraine and Russia have carried out multiple rounds of communication on border security and infrastructure protection, and Russia reiterated the need to establish a verifiable mechanism for security arrangements to promote subsequent discussions [2]. - As of the week ended November 22, the number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 216,000, the lowest since April this year; the number of continued claims was 1.96 million; the four - week average of initial claims dropped to 223,800 [2]. - In September, non - defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft increased by 0.9%, orders excluding transportation equipment increased by 0.6%, and orders excluding defense increased by 0.1%. The overall durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5%, with the previous value revised up to 3%, and multiple manufacturing sub - items continued to show signs of recovery [2]. 2. Price Logic - Gold maintains a narrow - range consolidation above $4150, mainly due to the continuous strengthening of the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year. The strength of initial jobless claims and durable goods orders does not change the market's judgment on the December interest rate cut. The weak rebound of the US dollar and the low - level long - term US Treasury yields keep the downward trend of real interest rates stable, providing a clearer medium - term support for gold. In the context of thin holiday liquidity, the market shows the characteristics of "weak pullback and strong support" [3]. - The stable ETF holdings and continuous central bank gold purchases form a solid bottom for the price. Although there is still short - term technical overbought pressure, the trend momentum is gradually accumulating [3]. 3. Outlook - The weekly range for London gold is maintained at [4030 - 4200], and for London silver at [50 - 55] [4]. 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index includes special indices and sector indices. Among the special indices, the commodity index is 2241.06, up 0.12%; the commodity 20 index is 2543.53, up 0.04%; the industrial products index is 2200.67, up 0.03%; the PPI commodity index is 1336.40, down 0.13% [46]. - For the precious metals index on November 26, 2025, the current value is 3370.94, with a daily increase of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 1.28%, a 1 - month increase of 4.87%, and a year - to - date increase of 52.36% [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: On the evening of November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management may be shifting, and key figures might turn dovish in the next two weeks. Attention should be paid to the speeches of key Fed voting members and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic: The internal driving force remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may bring marginal benefits to Q4 infrastructure investment. The LPR has remained stable since May, indicating that the central bank may not be in a hurry to further relax policies in the short term. New and second - hand housing sales have rebounded month - on - month, land supply has increased, but land transactions remain low. The demand and production capacity of real - estate front - end and back - end physical work have declined month - on - month [8]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, a hawkish Fed October meeting minutes, and strong September non - farm payroll data, the December rate - cut expectation was initially suppressed, and the US dollar index rose. Global equity sectors and base metals like copper were under pressure. However, the New York Fed President's dovish speech on Friday boosted the December rate - cut expectation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in Q4. With the market sentiment lifted, short - term risk appetite may improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to allocate stocks, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The New York Fed President's speech on November 21st hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, and the Fed's expectation management may shift. Key figures may turn dovish in the next two weeks. Focus on key Fed voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [8]. - Domestic Macro: The issuance of policy - based financial instruments, special bonds, and debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure investment. The LPR has been stable, suggesting no urgent need for short - term policy relaxation. Housing sales have rebounded, but land transactions are low, and real - estate physical work demand and capacity have declined [8]. - Asset Views: Fed's mixed signals initially pressured the December rate - cut expectation and boosted the US dollar index. The New York Fed President's speech later changed the situation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in Q4 and look for low - price allocation opportunities in stocks, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock Index Futures: Hotspots have limited persistence. Wait for the main line. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on incremental funds [9]. - Stock Index Options: The market is gradually dominated by long - term factors. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on option market liquidity [9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Short - term bond market disturbances exist. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on the implementation of monetary policies [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on US fundamentals, Fed policies, and global equity market trends [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the rate of freight decline in September [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel and Iron Ore: The off - season fundamentals are lackluster, and the iron ore price remains resilient. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on special bond issuance, steel exports, iron production, and other factors [9]. - Coke: The cost is decreasing, and there is a strong expectation of price cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - Coking Coal: Coal mines are accumulating inventory, and the market is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - Silicon Iron: Market confidence is low, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - Manganese Silicon: Inventory pressure is high, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on cost prices and foreign quotes [9]. - Glass: Cold - repair is uncertain, and the supply - demand improvement is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on spot sales [9]. - Soda Ash: Production is flat, and spot transactions are weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on soda ash inventory [9]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The Fed's rate - cut expectation is fluctuating, and the copper price is consolidating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on supply disruptions, domestic policies, and Fed policies [9]. - Alumina: The oversupply situation persists, and the price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on ore production and electrolytic aluminum production [9]. - Aluminum: The macro - sentiment is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - Zinc: The export window is open, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply [9]. - Lead: The delivery of LME lead has slowed down, and the lead price may stop falling. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on supply disruptions and battery exports [9]. - Nickel: Environmental issues in Indonesian MHP production are causing price fluctuations. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on macro - geopolitical changes and Indonesian policies [9]. - Stainless Steel: The rebound of nickel price has driven the recovery of the stainless - steel market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on Indonesian policies and demand growth [9]. - Tin: Market sentiment has improved, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [9]. - Industrial Silicon: The oversupply pressure remains, and the silicon price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on supply - side production resumption and policy changes [9]. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations are fluctuating, and the polysilicon price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on supply - side production resumption and domestic photovoltaic policies [9]. - Lithium Carbonate: The demand expectation has boosted the lithium price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical premiums are fluctuating, and supply pressure persists. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitics [11]. - LPG: Supply is relatively tight, and the basis is at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - Asphalt: The price is oscillating around 3000. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on sanctions and supply disruptions [11]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on geopolitics and crude oil prices [11]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The price is weakly oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on crude oil prices [11]. - Methanol: The shutdown progress is rapid, and the price may rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - energy and overseas shutdown dynamics [11]. - Urea: Inventory has significantly decreased, and the sentiment is bullish. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on enterprise inventory reduction [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price center is mainly adjusted widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and trade frictions [11]. - PX: The cost is average, and the supply - demand pattern is okay. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and aromatics blending for oil [11]. - PTA: The basis is strong, and the profit is slightly repaired. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes [11]. - Short - Fiber: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on downstream yarn - mill purchasing and peak - season demand [11]. - Bottle - Chip: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is stagnant. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new - device commissioning [11]. - Propylene: The spot is strong, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic macro - situation [11]. - PP: The fundamental pressure remains, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro - situation [11]. - Plastic: The oil price has fallen, and the maintenance support is limited. The short - term judgment is a weakly volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic/overseas macro - situation [11]. - Styrene: The oil - blending narrative has faded, and the price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [11]. - PVC: High inventory is suppressing the price, and it may be linked to production cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - Caustic Soda: The value is low, and the supply - demand is weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on market sentiment, production, and demand [11]. - Oils and Fats: Market sentiment has stabilized, and the price may continue to be weakly bullish. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [11]. - Protein Meal: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the M15 spread is narrowing. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and trade frictions [11]. - Corn/Starch: The supply - demand is temporarily tight, and the price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on demand, macro - situation, and weather [11]. - Live Pigs: The live - pig spot price is weak, and the main contract rebounds with reduced positions. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - Natural Rubber: The impact of floods in the production area needs further observation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price is oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on crude oil fluctuations [11]. - Cotton: There is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and the price is oscillating in the short term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on demand and inventory [11]. - Sugar: In the long - term, the driving force is downward, but the cost provides short - term support. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and the focus is on imports and Brazilian production [11]. - Pulp: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the futures logic for near - and far - term contracts is different. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quotes [11]. - Offset Paper: The raw material price has fallen, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on production - sales, education policies, and paper - mill production [11]. - Logs: The price of logs has fallen, and it is in a low - valuation area. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on shipping volume and sales volume [11].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a short-term bullish trend, supported by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with market probabilities exceeding 85% for such a move [5][6]. Market Performance - On November 27, gold opened at $4163.23 per ounce, reached a high of $4168.54, and a low of $4142.52, ultimately closing at $4159.46, reflecting a slight decline of $3.77 or 0.09% [1]. - The trading volume was low due to the Thanksgiving holiday, but the overall trend remains bullish [1][3]. Economic Factors - The slowdown in the U.S. economy is a key driver for a weaker dollar, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6]. - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair who advocates for rate cuts could further bolster market expectations for a dovish outlook, supporting gold prices [6]. Technical Analysis - Weekly charts indicate that gold prices have been adjusting but are showing higher lows and have not breached the 10-week moving average, suggesting a bullish momentum [8]. - Short-term targets for gold are set at $4300 and $4400, with support levels identified at $4155 and $4130 [10][11]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term trend for gold remains positive, with expectations of a new bull market driven by low interest rates and economic uncertainty [6]. - Historical patterns suggest that any pullbacks during a rate-cutting cycle present buying opportunities, with a target of $5000 per ounce in the future [6].

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals futures market is experiencing mixed results, with COMEX gold futures declining by 0.3% and COMEX silver futures increasing by 0.41, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and varying industrial demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in gold prices indicates a weakening trust in the U.S. government and institutions [1]. - Martin Siegert from Baden-Württemberg Bank anticipates that the current gold trend will continue, citing strong inflows into gold ETFs as a key supporting factor [1]. - The World Gold Council reported a 6% increase in global gold ETF assets from $472 billion in September to $503 billion in October, with a significant monthly inflow of $82 billion in October, surpassing the average monthly inflow of $71 billion for the year [2]. Group 2: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs has identified gold as the most recommended commodity to go long on, with expectations that gold prices could rise to $4,900 per ounce by late next year, driven by central bank purchases and declining interest rates [2].

格隆汇11月28日｜黄金价格保持平稳，并有望连续第四个月上涨，美联储下个月可能降息的预期对金价 构成支撑。金价本周累计上涨超过2%。美联储官员的一系列讲话以及延迟公布的经济数据，都支持了 降息预期，而利率下降时通常有利于黄金资产。掉期交易员预计12月降息25个基点的概率超过80%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations with a strong upward bias, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical uncertainties [2][4][6]. Fundamental Analysis - Strong expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts: The CME FedWatch tool indicates over 85% probability for a rate cut in December, with continued expectations for cuts through 2026 due to slowing U.S. economic growth and the potential successor to the Fed chair advocating for easing [2]. - Economic uncertainty and mixed consumer and investment demand: Online sales during Thanksgiving increased by 6% year-on-year, but overall holiday season sales growth slowed to 2.1%, reflecting a blend of weak consumer sentiment and economic resilience. This low growth environment may suppress inflation, creating conditions for rate cuts. Additionally, India's gold imports surged by 200% in October, indicating strong investment demand, supported by ongoing central bank purchases globally [2]. - Geopolitical risks add complexity: Progress in Ukraine peace talks faces core disagreements, and the intertwining of geopolitical uncertainty with expectations of over 90 basis points of Fed rate cuts in the next year and a half enhances gold's appeal as a safe haven [2]. Technical Analysis - Daily level: Gold showed a consolidating trend with a small bearish candle. The price broke out of a previous triangular consolidation pattern, with key support at the 5-day moving average around 4140-4145. If this support is breached, attention will shift to the 10-day moving average near 4105, while resistance is focused on the critical level of 4245 [4]. - Four-hour level: The overall trend remains unchanged, with a focus on the potential end of the fifth wave of the C-2-c structure. Recent price action has shown high-level fluctuations, with a trendline breakout. Short-term resistance is at 4173/4174, and if surpassed, the next focus will be on 4192/4193. Key support is identified at 4109, which, if broken, may indicate the completion of the C-2 wave and a potential shift to a C-3 downward phase [6].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rebound, with Bitcoin rising over 4% and Ethereum over 3%, driven by oversold conditions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of November 27, Bitcoin's price reached $91,420, marking a cumulative increase of over 13% from its low of $80,843 on November 21 [2] - The total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market reached $301 million (approximately 2.1 billion RMB), with over 100,000 traders liquidated within 24 hours [1] Factors Driving the Rebound - The rebound is attributed to two main factors: 1. Oversold conditions in the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin, which had previously peaked at over $126,000 before dropping to around $80,000 [3] 2. Rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with an 84.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, boosting investor sentiment [3][4] Federal Reserve Leadership Speculation - Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, is considered the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to a more dovish monetary policy [4] - Hassett has indicated a willingness to implement immediate rate cuts if appointed, aligning with President Trump's economic strategies [4] Impact of Political Climate on Cryptocurrency - The decline in Bitcoin's price is linked to President Trump's decreasing approval ratings, which have fallen to 38%, the lowest since his second term began [8] - Nobel laureate Paul Krugman suggests that Trump's waning influence negatively affects Bitcoin prices, as the cryptocurrency has become associated with "Trumpism" [7][9][10] Historical Context of "Trump Trade" - The "Trump trade" refers to the surge in cryptocurrency prices following Trump's election, driven by expectations of favorable policies for digital assets [10] - Despite initial support for cryptocurrencies, the market has faced volatility due to trade wars and other economic factors during Trump's presidency [10]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rebound, with Bitcoin rising over 4% and Ethereum over 3%, driven by oversold conditions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 27, Bitcoin's price reached $91,420, marking a cumulative increase of over 13% from its low of $80,843 on November 21 [3]. - The total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market reached $301 million (approximately 2.1 billion RMB), with over 100,000 traders liquidated within 24 hours [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving the Rebound - The rebound is attributed to two main factors: the significant prior decline in prices leading to a technical rebound, and the rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [4]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 84.9%, with a 67.2% chance of cumulative cuts by January [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership Speculation - Kevin Hassett, the current Director of the National Economic Council, is considered the leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, which could lead to a more dovish monetary policy [5]. - Hassett has indicated that he would advocate for immediate rate cuts if appointed, reflecting a potential shift in monetary policy direction [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the recent price rebound, Bitcoin remains over 27% lower than its peak of $126,080 in October, raising concerns about a potential bear market [6]. - Nobel laureate Paul Krugman attributes the recent volatility in Bitcoin prices to the declining popularity of former President Trump, suggesting that political dynamics significantly impact cryptocurrency valuations [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 27, 2025, the stock indices fluctuated throughout the day and closed nearly flat. The total market turnover was 1.70 trillion yuan, a decrease of 93.5 billion yuan from the previous day. Due to weak incremental policy signals recently, the upward momentum of the stock indices has weakened. With the influence of the overseas Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the risk of AI investment bubbles, the willingness of funds to take profits and leave temporarily has increased, and market sentiment has declined compared to before. - The profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to October 2025 was 1.9%, with a slowdown in growth rate. Considering the weakening of consumption and investment data in October, there are still strong expectations for policy benefits in the future, and the inflow trend of long - term funds remains unchanged, so the stock indices have strong support. - In general, with the coexistence of bullish and bearish factors, the current market main trend is unclear, and the stock indices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term. - Regarding options, considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, a bull spread strategy can be considered after a significant correction of the stock indices [4]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Option Indicators - On November 27, 2025, 50ETF fell 0.06% to 3.112; 300ETF (SSE) fell 0.09% to 4.622; 300ETF (SZSE) fell 0.21% to 4.768; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.05% to 4515.40; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.12% to 7257.45; 500ETF (SSE) fell 0.21% to 7.050; 500ETF (SZSE) fell 0.28% to 2.817; the GEM ETF fell 0.50% to 3.012; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.36% to 3.358; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.02% to 2972.27; the STAR 50ETF fell 0.22% to 1.38; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 0.30% to 1.34 [6]. - The trading volume PCR and open - interest PCR of various options changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 92.73 (previous day: 89.94), and the open - interest PCR was 100.17 (previous day: 100.08) [7]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in December 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options were reported. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in December 2025 was 12.49%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 12.36% [8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [10]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [21]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [34]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Included charts of the CSI 300 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [46]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Included charts of the CSI 1000 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [59]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [73]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [86]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Included charts of the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [98]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Included charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [111]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Included charts of the SSE 50 Index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [124]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [137]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [147].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on November 27, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Platinum rose over 6%, Shanghai silver rose over 3%, eggs and Shanghai tin rose over 2%, and palm oil rose nearly 2%. Palladium, soybean meal, glass, peanuts, and industrial silicon rose over 1%. On the downside, lithium carbonate fell nearly 2%, and asphalt and short - fiber fell over 1%. CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.11%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.11%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract fell 0.34%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract fell 0.08%. 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract fell 0.01%, 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract fell 0.06%, and 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract fell 0.01% [5][6] - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:19 on November 27, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai silver 2602 had an inflow of 3.12 billion yuan, Shanghai gold 2602 had an inflow of 2.146 billion yuan, and Shanghai tin 2601 had an inflow of 668 million yuan. On the other hand, rebar 2601 had an outflow of 578 million yuan, apple 2601 had an outflow of 528 million yuan, and coking coal 2601 had an outflow of 464 million yuan [6] 2. Commodity Analysis Copper - Copper opened high and moved low, showing a slightly stronger oscillation. US initial jobless claims decreased by 6,000 to 216,000 in the week ending November 22, lower than the expected 225,000. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiation for copper smelting is ongoing, with the rough smelting and refining fees remaining stable. Refined copper imports decreased month - on - month, but domestic copper supply is relatively abundant. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange copper has been accumulating, and there is no shortage of supply for now. The 770th document has not been implemented yet, and the operation of recycled copper rod enterprises is cautious. After the copper price dropped last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, down over 10% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. Recently, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has declined after reaching a high, and the inventory pressure has eased but is still high year - on - year. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, the copper price has rebounded. If the positive factors do not materialize, the copper price may decline slightly [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, with a decline during the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 90,850 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the lithium carbonate output was 89,300 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons from the previous month. As of November 26, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher year - on - year. The price of spodumene increased, and the supply of lithium from salt lakes is affected by the season. In October, the domestic output of energy - storage batteries was 54.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, up 21.1% and 20% year - on - year. After being stimulated by industry news, the futures price rose and then fell. The sustainability of downstream energy - storage orders is questionable, and the price has been fluctuating weakly in the past two days. It is recommended to operate with caution [10] Crude Oil - On November 2, eight OPEC+ countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November increase plans, and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30. This will increase the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve the pressure in the first quarter of next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the increase in US refined oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the increase in US crude oil inventories also exceeded expectations due to increased net imports. The overall oil inventory has increased slightly. US crude oil production is near the historical high. However, the number of active US oil drilling platforms decreased by 12, increasing the expectation that low oil prices will limit US crude oil production growth. The sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. The Trump administration is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky said he will continue to negotiate the peace plan with the US. The risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined, but it is difficult to reach a peace agreement in the near term. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has intensified, raising concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya. With the end of the consumption peak season, the decline of the US ISM manufacturing index in October, and the unclear prospect of US interest rate cuts, the market is worried about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and the Middle East's exports are increasing. The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate at a low level [11][13] Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% last week, lower than the same period last year. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month - on - month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year - on - year. The operating rates of asphalt downstream industries showed mixed performance last week, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 34%, restricted by funds and weather. In the Northeast region, asphalt production increased, and sales volume increased significantly after price cuts. The national sales volume increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons, at a slightly low level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat, near the lowest level in recent years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. A fire in Venezuela's Jose industrial area shut down a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened under the US military threat. Shandong Shengxing and other refineries will stably produce asphalt this week, and the asphalt operating rate will increase. With the decline in northern temperatures, road construction is coming to an end, and the demand will further weaken. The increase in southern projects is limited, and the overall demand is dull. The basis of Shandong asphalt has remained at a neutral level, and the market is cautious. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [14] PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the main downstream woven products of PP remained flat at 44.24%, and the orders decreased slightly compared with the previous year. On November 27, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 83%, at a slightly low - to - neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn products remained at around 31%. The de - stocking of petrochemical enterprises slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly high - to - neutral level in the same period over the years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, the follow - up of orders such as woven products is limited, the price of BOPP film has declined, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales. With supply surplus and weakening cost support, it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly [15][16] Plastic - On November 27, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of plastic enterprises remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders, at a neutral level in the same period over the years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film has increased slightly again, and the orders of packaging film have increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The de - stocking of petrochemical enterprises slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly high - to - neutral level in the same period over the years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. The new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE and 700,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was recently put into operation. The operating rate of plastic has decreased slightly. The agricultural film is at the end of the peak season, with stable orders but the peak season is not as good as expected. With the temperature drop, the demand in the north has begun to decrease, and the price of agricultural film has started to decline. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. Downstream enterprises have low purchasing willingness, mainly for rigid demand. Traders are cautious about the future market and generally offer discounts to sell actively. With the overall unchanged supply - demand pattern and weakening cost support, it is expected that plastic will continue to fluctuate weakly in the near term [17] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. Currently, the operating rate of PVC increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, still at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate of PVC continued to decline slightly, still at a low level although higher than the past two years. India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, alleviating the concern about China's PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty is also likely to be cancelled, and PVC exports increased last week through price cuts. However, the December quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China generally decreased by $30 - 60 per ton. The social inventory increased slightly last week and is still high, with great inventory pressure. From January to October 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. The year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion have further declined. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The real estate market needs time to improve. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the operating rate of PVC is higher than in previous years. The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of Tianjin Bohua is operating at full capacity, and 300,000 tons per year of Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons per year of Jiaxing Jiahua are operating at low capacity after trial operation. There are no actual policies in the PVC industry yet, and most old devices have been upgraded through technological transformation. The elimination of old devices and the solution of over - capacity problems in the petrochemical industry are macro - policies that will affect the future market. The maintenance of production enterprises such as Henan Lianchuang is about to end, the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, the cancellation of India's BIS policy has limited impact, the December quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China have decreased, and the decline in coking coal and other futures prices has dampened market sentiment. Recently, PVC has been fluctuating weakly [18][19] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved low, showing a weak performance during the day. In the spot market, the mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 1,380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1,000 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. According to Mysteel statistics, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 86.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93%. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and the daily customs clearance vehicle number at the Ganqimaodu Port may increase next week. However, there is still an expectation of production reduction and shutdown at the end of the year, and it is expected that the production will decrease month - on - month next month. The mine inventory has increased significantly. In terms of downstream demand, the operating rate of steel mills and the molten iron output increased last week, with the daily molten iron output at 236,280 tons, a 0.25% month - on - month decrease, and the profit of steel mills continued to weaken. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline seasonally. The decline trend of coking coal has slowed down in the past two days. It is expected that the future fundamentals will show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The market situation also needs to pay attention to the winter storage situation at coal ports, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term [20] Urea - The futures price of urea opened high and moved high, showing an increase during the day. The market situation has improved slightly, with prices rising. After the low - price quotes rebounded, the order receiving is still good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea from urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,580 to 1,610 yuan/ton, a rebound of about 10 yuan/ton, with the high - end quotes in Hebei. Fundamentally, the daily output is significantly higher than the same period over the years. Before the seasonal shutdown of gas - based devices, the daily output of upstream factory devices will remain at a high level. The current daily output data is about 6% higher than last year. The compound fertilizer factories are still operating. After the production of winter - storage fertilizers, the production load is gradually increasing. Although the pre - order situation has been poor recently, the pending orders are still sufficient. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to increase next week. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories increased by 2.45 percentage points this period. Since the price increase recently, the downstream terminal purchasing speed has increased, and the purchasing enthusiasm has increased significantly. With the reserve demand, the inventory has been decreasing for several weeks, with a 5.1% week - on - week decline this week. Overall, both supply and demand are increasing. The urea price is fluctuating strongly at a low level, with both upward and downward price pressures. The futures price will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range. The current demand is mainly reserve - type demand, with limited sustainability. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream acceptance after the price increase [21][22]