有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走弱，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国 12 月 20 日当 | | | | | 周首申失业金人数降至 21.4 万人，预期和前值为 22.4 万人，表明劳动力市场仍未见明 | | | | | 显压力。美国财政部长贝森特支持在通胀率稳步回落至 2%之后，重新审视美联储的这一 | | | | | 通胀目标，主张央行退居幕后、缩小干预，并与财政部协同配合。国内方面，央行四季 | | | | | 度例会表示将继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。库存方面， | | | | 铜 | LME 库存下降 1550 吨至 157025 吨；Comex 库存增加 4095 吨至 435035 吨；SHFE 铜仓 | | | | | 单增加 2679 吨至 52222 吨，BC 铜仓单维持 1053 吨。需求方面，铜价再度走高，下游企 | | | | | | | 业采购转为谨慎，成交以刚需为主。美联储降息预期和购债 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Focus on the expected difference in aggregate demand policies in 2026. The policy goal is to achieve "stable economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices", with price becoming an important consideration for monetary policy. Externally, the suspension of Sino - US tariff conflicts for one year has reduced short - term uncertainties. Internally, the increased emphasis on the "supply - side" may drive the upward repair of negative PPI in 2026. Macro - policies have shifted from "insufficient demand" to "strong supply and weak demand", with the addition of "cross - cycle adjustment". The goal of monetary policy has shifted from "prices at a reasonable level" to "a reasonable rebound", increasing the weight of price factors in the central bank's monetary policy. The policy emphasizes the "integrated effect of incremental and existing policies" to stabilize rather than lower the "comprehensive social financing cost". The deletion of certain statements may imply a marginal weakening of financial regulatory intensity and increased flexibility for financial institutions [2]. - In terms of structural policies, the pre - positioning of aggregate demand may increase policy support for investment in 2026 and expand from the "two important and two new" areas to a wider range. The shift from "small enterprises" to "small and medium - sized enterprises" may expand the scope of structural policy tools. The deletion of "stabilizing foreign trade" indicates a reduction in structural support for foreign trade. The deletion of real - estate - related statements suggests that the real - estate market may enter a stage of further risk release and convergence in 2026, with short - term pressure but medium - term stability [3]. - In terms of exchange - rate policies, as in the third quarter, the weakening US dollar has reduced pressure on the RMB [3]. - The macro - strategy has shifted to short - term defense and annual optimism. The fourth - quarter monetary policy has a greater demand for price rebounds, which may come from the "cross - cycle" on the supply side and the expected difference in investment on the demand side. The positive judgment of the 2026 macro - strategy is maintained, but the short - term is revised to neutral. In the equity market, the proportion of hedging should be appropriately increased, and in the interest - rate market, attention should be paid to short - term trading opportunities after the rapid rise of long - term rates [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro Events On December 18, the central bank's fourth - quarter regular meeting suggested giving play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, comprehensively using various tools, strengthening monetary - policy regulation, and grasping the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial - market operations [1]. 3.2 Comparison and Analysis of the "Monetary Policy Committee Regular Meeting" 3.2.1 First Paragraph: Monetary Policy - Fourth - quarter statement: The macro - regulation has been strengthened this year. Monetary policy has been moderately loose, continuously exerting force and increasing force in a timely manner, strengthening counter - cyclical adjustment, and comprehensively using various monetary - policy tools to serve the high - quality development of the real economy and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for the stable and positive economic development. The reform of the loan - market quotation rate has continuously released its effectiveness, the market - based adjustment mechanism of deposit rates has effectively played its role, the transmission efficiency of monetary policy has been enhanced, and the social financing cost is at a historically low level. The foreign - exchange market supply and demand are basically balanced, foreign - exchange reserves are sufficient, the RMB exchange rate fluctuates bidirectionally, and it remains basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The financial market generally operates smoothly [11]. - Third - quarter statement: Similar to the fourth - quarter statement, but the economic description was "rebounding and improving", and the statement "the current - account surplus is stable" was included [12]. - Huatai analysis: In November, when the economic data was lower than expected, the economic description was adjusted from "rebounding and improving" to "stable and positive". After the trade surplus exceeded 1 trillion US dollars from January to November, the statement "the current - account surplus is stable" was deleted [13]. 3.2.2 Second Paragraph: Situation Analysis - Fourth - quarter statement: The current external environment has a greater impact. The world economic growth momentum is insufficient, trade barriers have increased, the economic performance of major economies has diverged, and there are uncertainties in inflation trends and monetary - policy adjustments. China's economy is generally stable and making progress, and high - quality development has achieved new results, but it still faces problems such as prominent contradictions between strong supply and weak demand. It is necessary to continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, increase the intensity of counter - cyclical and cross - cycle adjustment, better play the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary - policy tools, strengthen the coordination and cooperation of monetary and fiscal policies, and promote stable economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices [27]. - Third - quarter statement: The current external environment is more complex and severe. The world economic growth momentum has weakened, trade barriers have increased, the economic performance of major economies has diverged, and there are uncertainties in inflation trends and monetary - policy adjustments. China's economy is making progress while maintaining stability, social confidence is continuously boosted, and high - quality development has achieved new results, but it still faces difficulties such as insufficient domestic demand and low - level price operation. It is necessary to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in detail, strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, better play the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary - policy tools, increase the coordination and cooperation of monetary and fiscal policies, and promote stable economic growth and prices at a reasonable level [28]. - Huatai analysis: In the fourth quarter, the description of the external and internal economic situations was adjusted. Externally, the uncertainty has decreased marginally. Internally, the description of the "supply - side" has increased, which may drive the upward repair of negative PPI in 2026. The monetary - policy goal has shifted from "prices at a reasonable level" to "a reasonable rebound", increasing the weight of price factors [29]. 3.2.3 Third Paragraph: Policy Requirements - Fourth - quarter statement: It is recommended to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, comprehensively use various tools, strengthen monetary - policy regulation, and grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial - market operations. Keep liquidity abundant, make the growth of social financing scale and money supply match the expected goals of economic growth and general price level, and promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost. Strengthen the guidance of the central bank's policy interest rate, improve the market - based interest - rate formation and transmission mechanism, play the role of the market - interest - rate pricing self - regulatory mechanism, and strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest - rate policies. Observe and evaluate the bond - market operation from a macro - prudential perspective and pay attention to changes in long - term yields. Smooth the monetary - policy transmission mechanism and improve the efficiency of fund use. Enhance the resilience of the foreign - exchange market, stabilize market expectations, prevent exchange - rate overshooting risks, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [43]. - Third - quarter statement: It is recommended to strengthen monetary - policy regulation, improve forward - looking, targeted, and effective policies, grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial - market operations, implement various monetary - policy measures, and fully release policy effects. Keep liquidity abundant, guide financial institutions to increase monetary and credit investment, make the growth of social financing scale and money supply match the expected goals of economic growth and general price level. Strengthen the guidance of the central bank's policy interest rate, improve the market - based interest - rate formation and transmission mechanism, play the role of the market - interest - rate pricing self - regulatory mechanism, and strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest - rate policies. Promote the decline of the comprehensive social financing cost. Observe and evaluate the bond - market operation from a macro - prudential perspective and pay attention to changes in long - term yields. Smooth the monetary - policy transmission mechanism, improve the efficiency of fund use, and prevent fund idling. Enhance the resilience of the foreign - exchange market, stabilize market expectations, prevent exchange - rate overshooting risks, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [44]. - Huatai analysis: The central bank's monetary policy has entered a "discretionary" stage. The "integrated effect of incremental and existing policies" is proposed, which is more specific. The "forward - looking, targeted, and effective" statements are deleted, and the "timing" of policy implementation is added. The "comprehensive social financing cost" is pre - positioned and changed from "decline" to "low - level operation", indicating limited space for price - based monetary policies such as interest - rate cuts. The deletion of certain statements implies a marginal weakening of the demand for total financial variables and financial regulatory intensity [45][46][47]. 3.2.4 Fourth Paragraph: Policy Reform - Fourth - quarter statement: Guide large - scale banks to play the main role in financial services for the real economy, promote small and medium - sized banks to focus on their main responsibilities and businesses, enhance the capital strength of banks, and jointly maintain the stable development of the financial market. Effectively implement various structural monetary - policy tools, do a solid job in the "five major articles" of finance, and strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, scientific and technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. Use the swap facilities of securities, funds, and insurance companies and the re - loan for stock repurchase and increase, explore a normalized institutional arrangement, and maintain the stability of the capital market. Continuously do a good job in financial services to support the development and growth of the private economy. Promote high - level two - way opening of finance and improve the ability to manage the economy and finance and prevent risks under open conditions [56]. - Third - quarter statement: Similar to the fourth - quarter statement, but with more content, including supporting "two important and two new" areas, stabilizing foreign trade, and promoting the real - estate market [57]. - Huatai analysis: In the fourth quarter, many statements were deleted. The support order for key areas was adjusted, with aggregate demand pre - positioned, the scope of support for small enterprises expanded to small and medium - sized enterprises, and the support for foreign trade reduced. The deletion of real - estate - related statements may indicate that the real - estate market will enter a stage of further risk release and convergence in 2026 [58][59]. 3.2.5 Fifth Paragraph: Policy Guidance - Fourth - quarter statement: Guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully implement the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Central Economic Work Conference. In accordance with the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, firmly grasp the primary task of high - quality development, solidly promote Chinese - style modernization, fully and accurately implement the new development concept, and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern. Place greater emphasis on strengthening the domestic large - cycle, coordinate the relationship between total supply and total demand, enhance the forward - looking, targeted, and coordinated nature of macro - policies, focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, improve the increment and revitalize the stock, and continuously consolidate and expand the momentum of stable and positive economic development [63]. - Third - quarter statement: Similar to the fourth - quarter statement, but the macro - policy was described as "coordination and cooperation, maintaining policy continuity and stability, and enhancing flexibility and predictability" [64]. - Huatai analysis: The macro - policy has shifted from "coordination and cooperation, maintaining policy continuity and stability, and enhancing flexibility and predictability" to "forward - looking, targeted, and coordinated". The addition of "optimizing supply" indicates that there is still room for improvement in the macro - supply side in 2026, and the overall policy tone is "stable" [65].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is closely watching the upcoming two-year government bond auction, which is seen as a critical indicator of investor sentiment amid rising inflation and discussions on potential further tightening by the Bank of Japan [1] Group 1: Auction Context - The auction occurs less than a week after the Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate to a 30-year high, with no clear guidance on future tightening from Governor Kazuo Ueda [1] - The two-year government bond yield reached its highest level since 1996 earlier this week, indicating a market re-evaluation of future policy paths [1] - The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has risen to its highest level since 2004, reflecting sustained increases in medium- to long-term inflation expectations [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is cautious due to concerns over the speed of the central bank's policy response and the upward adjustment of inflation expectations and neutral interest rates [4] - Despite verbal warnings from Japanese authorities regarding exchange rates, the yen's depreciation and rising yields have not fully stabilized the market [4] - Overnight index swaps indicate a possibility of another rate hike by the Bank of Japan before September next year [4] Group 3: Auction Expectations - The upcoming auction may be the first issuance of two-year bonds with yields exceeding 1%, but uncertainty remains due to the recent rate hike and unclear policy outlook [4] - Traders currently price in the next 25 basis point rate hike only by September 2026 [4] - Investors are also focused on the upcoming fiscal year 2026 budget proposal, which is expected to increase the issuance of two-year, five-year, and ten-year bonds while reducing ultra-long bond issuance [4] Group 4: Auction Metrics - The auction results will be announced on Thursday at 12:35 Tokyo time, with key metrics such as bid-to-cover ratio and the "tail" between average and minimum accepted prices being closely monitored [5] - The previous auction in November had a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.53, which will serve as a benchmark for assessing market sentiment [5] - Increased issuance of two-year bonds may lead to a higher risk of short-term paper losses [5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to maintaining a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and stabilize growth, aligning with the central economic work conference's guidelines for 2026 [1][2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC plans to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, utilizing various monetary policy tools to support the real economy [1][2]. - From January to November, a total of 15.4 trillion yuan (approximately 2.3 trillion USD) in credit was issued, with a growth rate of 6.4% [2]. Financial Support for Key Areas - The monetary policy aims to provide robust financial support for strategic sectors, including technology independence, green transformation, and small and micro enterprises [2][3]. - The issuance of 5 trillion yuan (approximately 750 billion USD) in new local special bonds for 2026 has been expedited, with total project investments around 70 trillion yuan (approximately 10.5 trillion USD) [3]. Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The collaboration between monetary and fiscal policies is crucial for addressing economic transformation challenges and external shocks [6][7]. - The issuance of special government bonds and the PBOC's liquidity support have stabilized market expectations and provided funding for major projects [7]. Enhancing Policy Effectiveness - The PBOC emphasizes the need to improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and maintain reasonable interest rate relationships to enhance policy effectiveness [4][5]. - Experts suggest that innovative tools should be developed to strengthen the synergy between fiscal spending and credit allocation, particularly for supporting small enterprises and technological innovation [8].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 400 billion MLF operation on December 25, 2025, to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 10 billion in December [1][2] - In 2025, the net MLF injection is projected to be 1.161 trillion yuan, contrasting with a net withdrawal of 198.6 billion yuan in 2024 [3][4] - The PBOC's liquidity support is crucial as the net financing scale of government bonds has decreased, and there is an expectation of a potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in Q1 2026 [2][4] Group 2 - The combination of MLF and reverse repos has resulted in a total net liquidity injection of 4.961 trillion yuan since the beginning of 2025, supporting a stable market environment [4] - The PBOC's monetary policy has shifted from "prudent" to "moderately accommodative," with an expected increase in new social financing by approximately 3.7 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [4] - The central economic work conference emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity, indicating that the PBOC's approach to liquidity management remains unchanged [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - Overseas: The US GDP in Q3 grew by 4.3% year - on - year, and the job market recovered with the initial jobless claims falling to 214,000 last week, which weakened the rate - cut expectation [1]. - Domestic: The government will continue a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. The key task in 2026 is to expand domestic demand, but the domestic demand in November was weak [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - In the short term, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate may approach and briefly break through 7.0. In 2026, it is expected to break through 7.0 and depreciate moderately, driven by factors such as the narrowing of the monetary policy cycle gap, the strengthening of domestic economic fundamentals, and the inflow of international capital [3]. Stock Index - The upward drive of the stock index has strengthened, but there is still pressure above. It is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the short term [4]. Treasury Bonds - Maintain a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term bond market, and use a mid - line strategy to bet on monetary policy support. Adopt a band - trading strategy for short - term trading. Hold mid - term long positions and consider taking profits on short - term long positions [5]. Container Shipping on the European Line - The spot price increase has encountered resistance, and the futures price has fallen under pressure. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the future trend is uncertain [5][6]. Commodities - **Platinum and Palladium**: In the medium - long term, the bull market foundation of platinum remains. In the short term, beware of adjustment risks due to the rapid expansion of the spot - futures price difference [9][10]. - **Gold and Silver**: In the short term, gold and silver are oscillating at high levels. Gold is still in a relatively strong state, while silver has high price risks. In the medium - long term, they are expected to rise [11][12]. - **Copper**: The multi - empty game in the 96,000 - 97,000 range has intensified. Consider different trading strategies according to different situations [12][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the medium term; alumina is in an oversupply situation; casting aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term [15]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They are operating strongly, but beware of the height [16]. - **Tin**: It will be in a wide - range oscillation, and use an interval - trading strategy [18]. - **Lead**: It will oscillate in the range of 16,700 - 17,500 in the short term [19]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are oscillating at a low level, with support below and pressure above [20]. - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuation has decreased, and it will run in an interval [20][21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The inventory structure of coking coal is expected to improve, and the downside space of the coking coal futures is limited. The valuation repair drive of coke may weaken [22]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the short term, but the upward space is limited [22]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The current market is slightly bullish. Consider short - term low - buying operations [24][25][26]. - **Crude Oil**: The tense situation between the US and Venezuela has brought upward drive to short - term oil prices [26][27][28]. - **LPG**: The near - term is supported, while the expectation is under pressure [29][30]. - **PTA - PX**: PX has a good supply - demand pattern and is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. PTA's processing fee is expected to rise, but the space is limited [31][33]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand balance has improved slightly, but the inventory and cost factors still suppress the valuation [35][36]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed, with a near - term weak and far - term strong expectation [37]. - **PP**: The supply pressure is expected to be relieved in January, and it can be considered to go long at a low price [39][40]. - **PE**: The supply pressure may be relieved, and the spot price has rebounded [42][43]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an oversupply situation, and styrene is oscillating [43][44]. - **Asphalt**: The market is oscillating and bullish in the short term, and pay attention to the winter - storage policy and geopolitical factors [44][45][46]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is oscillating under the influence of emotions, and the overall fundamental pressure is high [47]. - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support below and pressure above [50]. - **Soda Ash and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is waiting for supply variables, glass needs to digest inventory, and caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly [50][51][53]. - **Log**: It is in an oscillatory market, and consider double - selling strategies [53]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level before more overhauls occur [55]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: In the long - term, it can be bullish, but in the short - to - medium term, focus on the fundamentals. The near - month has high supply pressure [57]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer - market soybean will oscillate in the short term, and the inner - market soybean meal depends on the reserve - release supply [58][59]. - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a wide - range oscillation, with palm oil being relatively strong [59][60]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the hedging pressure on cotton prices is being digested. In the long - term, the supply - demand may be tight, and pay attention to pre - holiday orders [61][62][63]. - **Sugar**: The short - term basis has been repaired, and the domestic price may oscillate [63][64]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. Consider light - position long positions for rebound [64]. - **Apples**: The near - term is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the retracement to go long [65][66]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price is oscillating at a low level, and pay attention to pre - holiday procurement. The long - term supply - demand is loose, and the price is under pressure [67]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US job market has recovered, and the GDP in Q3 grew strongly. In China, the government will continue a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the domestic demand in November was weak [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central bank's fourth - quarter meeting emphasized maintaining the stability of the capital market [2]. Stock Index - The stock index was generally strong except for the Shanghai 50 index. The Beijing property - market policy is beneficial to the real - estate sector, but the index still faces pressure above [4]. Treasury Bonds - The trading volume of treasury bonds decreased, and the rebound momentum was not sustained. Adopt a mid - line strategy for the medium - term and a band - trading strategy for the short - term [5]. Container Shipping on the European Line - The futures price of the container shipping on the European line fell under pressure. There are positive factors such as the Spring Festival capacity reduction plan and negative factors such as the poor implementation of the price increase [5][6]. Commodities - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuated, and the trading of futures was affected by factors such as the Fed's policy and the supply - demand fundamentals [9]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver were oscillating at high levels. The market was affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate expectation and the supply - demand situation [11]. - **Copper**: The price of copper was in a multi - empty game in the 96,000 - 97,000 range, and different trading strategies were recommended [12][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be stable in the short term, alumina is in an oversupply situation, and casting aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up with aluminum [14][15]. - **Zinc**: The price of zinc was oscillating widely, affected by factors such as the LME inventory and the supply - demand situation [15]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel were rising, but the fundamental improvement was limited [16]. - **Tin**: The price of tin was oscillating widely and was under pressure at night. It is expected to be in an interval - trading range [18]. - **Lead**: The price of lead was rebounding slightly, affected by factors such as the LME inventory and the supply - demand situation [19]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were oscillating, affected by factors such as the cost of raw materials and the demand [20]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore was oscillating, with supply pressure and demand support [20][21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of coking coal is expected to decline, and the demand for coke is weakening. The inventory structure of coking coal is expected to improve [22]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were oscillating, affected by factors such as the supply - demand situation and the cost [22]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The prices of pulp and offset paper were oscillating at a low level. The supply of pulp was affected by factors such as the Indonesian flood, and the demand for offset paper was expected to improve [24][25][26]. - **Crude Oil**: The price of crude oil was affected by the tense situation between the US and Venezuela, and it is expected to rise in the short term [26][27][28]. - **LPG**: The LPG price was affected by the supply - demand situation and the international market, with a near - term support and a far - term pressure [29][30]. - **PTA - PX**: The supply - demand situation of PX and PTA was complex, and the prices were expected to be affected by factors such as the production capacity and the demand [31][33]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand balance of MEG and bottle chips has improved slightly, but the inventory and cost factors still suppress the valuation [35][36]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals of methanol were mixed, with a near - term weak and far - term strong expectation [37]. - **PP**: The supply pressure of PP is expected to be relieved in January, and the price is expected to rise [39][40]. - **PE**: The supply pressure of PE may be relieved, and the spot price has rebounded [42][43]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an oversupply situation, and styrene is oscillating [43][44]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market is oscillating and bullish in the short term, affected by factors such as the winter - storage policy and geopolitical factors [44][45][46]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is oscillating under the influence of emotions, and the overall fundamental pressure is high [47]. - **Urea**: The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support below and pressure above [50]. - **Soda Ash and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is waiting for supply variables, glass needs to digest inventory, and caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly [50][51][53]. - **Log**: The log market is oscillating, and double - selling strategies can be considered [53]. - **Propylene**: The propylene price is expected to oscillate at a low level before more overhauls occur [55]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The price of pigs is affected by factors such as the supply - demand situation and policies. The long - term is bullish, and the short - to - medium term focuses on the fundamentals [57]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer - market soybean is oscillating, and the inner - market soybean meal depends on the reserve - release supply [58][59]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats are oscillating widely, with palm oil and rapeseed oil rebounding [59][60]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is affected by factors such as the supply - demand situation and policies. Pay attention to pre - holiday orders [61][62][63]. - **Sugar**: The short - term basis of sugar has been repaired, and the domestic price may oscillate [63][64]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. Consider light - position long positions for rebound [64]. - **Apples**: The near - term apple price is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the retracement to go long [65][66]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term red - date price is oscillating at a low level, and pay attention to pre - holiday procurement. The long - term supply - demand is loose, and the price is under pressure [67].

【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 【要闻速递】 摘要今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市，上海黄金交易所黄金t+d12月25日(周四)早盘盘初下跌0.55%报 1004.08元/克。 希夫的通胀警告招致特朗普直接回击。本月早些时候，希夫做客《Fox and Friends Weekend》后，特朗 普于12月6日在Truth Social发帖，斥其为"憎恨特朗普的失败者""混蛋"，并反驳物价上涨论，称部分州 汽油价已降至每加仑1.99美元，物价"正大幅下降"。 今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市，上海黄金交易所黄金t+d12月25日(周四)早盘盘初下跌0.55%报 1004.08元/克。 希夫驳斥称，仅盯燃料价格忽视整体负担压力，"通胀正在上升，几乎没下降可能，只会走高"。他以租 金、保险及服务成本上涨为例，指通胀仍深植经济。回应特朗普时，希夫强调通胀源于历届政府政策选 择，非政治言辞："拜登引发'负担能力危机'时，获特朗普第一任期'助力'，且未解决问题反加剧"。他 总结，核心不在言辞而在货币政策，警告即便有相反说法，降息与资产负债表再扩张或于2026年推高通 胀。 黄金T+D价格延续短期回调，主力合约承压于关键 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic stability and high-quality development, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [1][2]. Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - In November, the PBOC injected a net of 600 billion yuan in medium- and long-term funds through open market operations, keeping the liquidity abundant [2][3]. - The overall net injection in the open market for November was 173.8 billion yuan, indicating a continued ample liquidity environment [2]. - Major repo rates saw a slight increase, with the weighted average of DR001 and R001 rising by 3 and 5 basis points to 1.37% and 1.43%, respectively [2][3]. Bond Market Performance - The bond market saw a total issuance of 4.7 trillion yuan in November, a month-on-month increase of 21.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [4]. - The net financing in the bond market reached 2.18 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant month-on-month increase of 119.3% [4]. - The yield on 10-year government bonds fluctuated between 1.8% and 1.85%, with a notable steepening of the yield curve [4]. Interest Rate Swaps - The interest rate swap curve shifted upward in November, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year FR007 swap rates increasing by 2, 5, and 6 basis points, respectively [6]. - The average daily trading volume of interest rate swaps decreased by 7.8% compared to the previous month [6]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There is a divergence in investor sentiment regarding long-term bonds, attributed to pressures on banks' liabilities and seasonal regulatory assessments [5]. - The market is increasingly discussing the impact of upcoming macroeconomic data and the supply-demand dynamics in the bond market as the year-end approaches [5].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 25 日 铜：外强内弱，限制价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | 96,100 伦铜3M电子盘 12,133 | 2.31% 0.65% | 95020 - | -1.12% - | | 较前日变动 | 昨日成交 | | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 558,648 | 297,908 | 658,927 | 23,257 | | 伦铜3M电子盘 18,195 | | -8,111 | 340,000 | 2,248 | | 昨日期货库存 | | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | 沪铜 52,222 | | 2,679 | - | - | | 伦铜 157,025 | | -1,550 | 29.63% | -1.19% | | LME铜升贴水 | | 昨日价差 13.16 | 前日价差 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Silver: Oscillating with an upward bias [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Pulp: Oscillating [8] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean oil: Rebounding [8] - Palm oil: Rebounding [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebounding [8] - Soybean meal: Weakly oscillating [8] - Rapeseed meal: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean No. 2: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean No. 1: Weakly oscillating [8] - Live pigs: Oscillating [10] - Rubber: Oscillating [12] - PX: Widely oscillating [12] - PTA: Widely oscillating [12] - MEG: Oscillating at a low level [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features a loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories in 2026, with new global mine production increasing by 64 - 65 million tons, outpacing the growth of crude steel production. Real - demand is weak, and the steel export license system is a definite negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds offer opportunities to enter short positions [2]. - Coking coal and coke are supported by capacity inspections, safety inspections, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license system shifts market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives, impacting raw material demand and prices [2]. - The sentiment in the rebar market is boosted by policies emphasizing domestic demand, and the black sector has rebounded. The steel export license system requires a downward adjustment of steel export expectations for next year, and the impact of potential crude steel production control policies should be noted [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand imbalance. Although there is a cold - repair expectation for some production lines before the Spring Festival, supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the decline in real - estate completion [2]. - In the financial market, the central bank's monetary policy meeting emphasizes the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies. The new version of the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment" guides more foreign investment. The power consumption data shows growth, and the market is in short - term consolidation with a continued medium - term trend [4]. - Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Multiple factors such as the US debt issue, geopolitical risks, and increased Chinese physical gold demand support the upward trend of gold prices, despite short - term fluctuations [6]. - Logs have a supply - demand pattern of weakening supply pressure and relatively weak demand, with prices expected to oscillate. Pulp has a loose supply - demand situation, and prices may remain oscillating. Offset paper prices are expected to weakly oscillate in the short term [6][8]. - In the oil and oilseed market, the demand for oils is uncertain, but they are rebounding in the short term driven by the strengthening of crude oil. The soybean market has a relatively loose supply, and prices of soybean meal and soybeans are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - The live - pig market has a complex relationship between supply and demand. The average trading weight may decline, and the average price is expected to oscillate in the coming week [10]. - The rubber market has supply disruptions in major producing areas and a demand - side support that is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to oscillate. The polyester market has different trends for each product, with PX and PTA having wide - range oscillations, MEG having low - level oscillations, and PR and PF being on the sidelines [12]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mine production will increase significantly, with real demand weakening due to factors like falling hot - metal production and high plate inventories. The steel export license system is a negative for raw materials, and short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Supported by capacity inspections and anti - involution policies, but the steel export license system changes market expectations, affecting raw material demand and prices [2]. - Rebar: Policy boosts market sentiment, and the black sector rebounds. The steel export license system requires adjusting export expectations, and the impact of crude steel production control policies should be watched [2]. - Glass: Supply - demand imbalance persists, with cold - repair expectations not fully met, and demand weakening due to the real - estate situation [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: Different stock indices show different trends, and the market is affected by central bank policies and industry - specific capital flows [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the market is in a small - scale rebound after a short - term net cash withdrawal by the central bank [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, and multiple factors support the upward trend, with short - term fluctuations affected by interest - rate policies and geopolitical risks [6]. - Silver: Similar to gold, it oscillates with an upward bias, affected by macro - economic data and geopolitical factors [6]. Light Industry - Logs: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is relatively weak, and prices are expected to oscillate [6][8]. - Pulp: Supply - demand is loose, and prices may remain oscillating [8]. - Offset paper: Prices are expected to weakly oscillate in the short term, with potential large - scale price fluctuations [8]. Oil and Oilseeds - Oils: Demand is uncertain, but they are rebounding in the short term driven by crude oil. Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [8]. - Meal and soybeans: Supply is relatively loose, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with short - term rebounds possible, and attention should be paid to multiple uncertainties [8]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight may change, and demand is affected by festivals. The average price is expected to oscillate in the coming week [10]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient, inventory is accumulating, and prices are expected to oscillate [12]. Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices have wide - range oscillations, affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships in the polyester industry [12]. - MEG: Prices oscillate at a low level, with long - term inventory pressure and short - term supply - side changes to be watched [12]. - PR and PF: The market is on the sidelines, with different trends based on their own supply - demand and cost situations [12]