Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank (ECB) Council member Martins Kazaks dampened market expectations for an imminent interest rate cut, emphasizing that discussions on further monetary policy easing are premature due to persistently high potential inflation rates and associated risks [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Kazaks stated that the timing for discussing interest rate cuts is not yet mature, especially ahead of the ECB's upcoming policy meeting on December 18 [1] - Despite the ECB halving its policy rate over the past year, decision-makers remain vigilant regarding inflation, maintaining current rates since June [1] - Kazaks highlighted that any future rate cuts are not guaranteed, indicating a cautious stance due to core inflation rates being "well above 2%" [1] Group 2: Inflation Forecasts - The upcoming December meeting will be crucial as new inflation forecasts for the next three years will be presented to ECB decision-makers [2] - Kazaks emphasized the importance of the 2026 and 2027 inflation predictions, noting that monetary policy effects take one to two years to materialize, making near-term data more relevant [2] - According to the ECB's September forecasts, inflation is expected to be 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, both close to or below the 2% target [2] Group 3: Inflation Risks - Kazaks acknowledged potential downward pressures on inflation, such as delays in the EU ETS2 emissions trading system and the possible appreciation of the euro [3] - However, he warned against overlooking upward inflation risks, such as price pressures from trade fragmentation [3] - He reiterated that the ECB should remain focused on core inflation, which remains significantly above 2%, indicating that controlling potential price pressures is a primary concern [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 5950.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, showing a decline. Coupled with the weakening of economic data such as consumption and investment in October, the future monetary policy environment is expected to be relatively loose to maintain the stability of macro - aggregate demand, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, there is no strong necessity for the monetary policy to be intensified at the end of the year, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient in the short term. It is necessary to focus on the statements of the important December meeting on monetary policy. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News and Related Charts - On November 27, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 356.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an unchanged operating rate of 1.40%. There were 300 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. This operation aimed to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, achieving a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan [6].

Group 1 - Major Wall Street banks have released their outlooks for the S&P 500 index by the end of 2026, with a general consensus that the index will continue to rise due to the ongoing AI investment wave, a shift towards loose monetary policy, and expanding profit growth [1] - HSBC sets a target of 7500 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, expecting a 12% growth in earnings per share for index constituents, driven by macroeconomic stability and the AI investment boom [2][3] - Societe Generale predicts the S&P 500 could reach 7300 points, with potential volatility higher than usual, influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy path [4] Group 2 - Barclays raises its target for the S&P 500 to 7400 points, citing strong performance from large tech stocks and improving monetary and fiscal conditions [5] - UBS forecasts a target of 7500 points for the S&P 500, driven by strong corporate earnings growth, particularly in the tech sector [7] - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about the S&P 500 reaching 7800 points, viewing recent market weakness as a buying opportunity [9] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank presents the most optimistic outlook, projecting the S&P 500 could hit 8000 points by the end of 2026, driven by widespread profit growth beyond just the major tech companies [10] - The reports highlight a K-shaped economic recovery, where the disparity between high-income and low-income consumers is expected to widen, impacting consumer behavior and confidence [3][8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global FX (Foreign Exchange) Market** outlook for 2026, emphasizing a **bearish dollar** and a **bullish beta** environment. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Bearish Dollar Outlook**: The dollar is expected to have a bearish bias in the first half of 2026 due to factors such as Federal Reserve asymmetries, twin deficits, and a global recovery, although its weakness may be constrained by US economic resilience [6][8][17]. 2. **Currency Predictions**: Key currency forecasts include EUR/USD at 1.20, USD/JPY at 164, and USD/CNY at 7.05 [6][8]. 3. **Global Economic Recovery**: The macroeconomic landscape in 2026 is characterized by procyclicality, synchronized central bank inactivity, and a focus on fiscal policy and AI adoption impacts [6][8][36]. 4. **High Beta/Yielding Currencies**: Preference is given to high beta and yielding currencies, with expectations that DM (Developed Markets) high-yielders like NOK and AUD will benefit from growth pick-up [6][8][36]. 5. **FX Carry Trades**: FX carry trades are anticipated to perform well amid low volatility and central bank inactivity, with a focus on carry-efficient hedges for risk markets [6][8][36]. 6. **US Policy Risks**: US policy remains a significant source of FX risk, with a shift in focus from tariffs to fiscal policy and the Fed's framework [6][8][64]. 7. **AI Impact**: The adoption of AI is expected to influence FX markets, with carry trades linked to AI commodity exporters like AUD and CLP [6][8][52]. 8. **Fiscal Differentiation**: Fiscal differentiation is highlighted as a critical factor, with CHF showing the best fiscal metrics among reserve currencies [49][132]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Historical Context**: The dollar's performance has historically correlated with net foreign direct investment (FDI) rather than net equity inflows, indicating a complex relationship between currency strength and investment flows [54][90]. 2. **Market Sentiment**: FX volatility is expected to remain subdued, but historical patterns suggest limited further downside from current low levels [44][46]. 3. **Trade Recommendations**: Specific trade recommendations include maintaining USD shorts, buying AUD/USD, and various options strategies involving EUR/GBP and NOK/JPY [9][8][17]. 4. **Growth Forecasts**: The growth forecasts for 2026 are skewed to the upside, driven by the lagged effects of prior global monetary easing and easier financial conditions [18][19]. 5. **Structural Issues**: The US faces unresolved macro issues, such as the divergence between resilient GDP growth and a softening labor market [30][32]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated trends and risks in the FX market for 2026.

Core Points - The UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced the Autumn Budget for 2025, with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projecting a significant increase in fiscal buffer from £9.9 billion to £21.7 billion by March 2025 [1] - The budget is expected to generate an additional £26.1 billion in tax revenue by the fiscal year 2029/30, with a total tax increase of £29.8 billion primarily targeting the gambling, high-end real estate, and investment income sectors [1][2] - The budget maintains a commitment not to raise income tax, VAT, or national insurance main rates, but expands the tax base through various measures [2][3] Tax Measures - Key measures include extending the freeze on personal income tax and national insurance thresholds until the fiscal year 2030/31, which is expected to push nearly 2 million taxpayers into higher tax brackets, generating an estimated £8 billion in revenue by 2029/30 [3] - The annual tax-free allowance for cash ISAs for residents under 65 will be reduced from £20,000 to £12,000 starting April 2027 [2][3] - Additional taxes will be imposed on residential properties valued over £2 million and £5 million, as well as mileage taxes on electric and hybrid vehicles starting in 2028 [2][3] Economic Outlook - The OBR's economic forecast shows a mixed outlook, with a short-term GDP growth forecast increase from 1.0% to 1.5% for 2025, but a decrease from 1.9% to 1.4% for 2026 [4] - Inflation predictions for 2025 have been adjusted upward from 3.3% to 3.5%, with the budget measures expected to reduce inflation by 0.5 percentage points in the second quarter of 2026 [5] - The budget's impact on inflation remains uncertain, as increased operational costs from tax measures may lead to higher prices in services, which constitute over 80% of the UK economy [5][6] Market Reaction - The budget is recognized as the third-largest tax increase plan in the last fifteen years, with positive reactions from financial markets, boosting confidence in the UK's fiscal sustainability [8] - Analysts suggest that while the budget may help alleviate short-term inflation, the core inflation remains resilient, delaying the timeline for returning to the 2% target until 2027 [8][9] - Concerns have been raised regarding the potential negative impact of tax measures on consumer spending and the housing market [9] Political Context - This budget is the second under the Labour government, aiming to balance election promises with fiscal consolidation amid high public debt and economic challenges [11] - The budget does not implement aggressive austerity but reinforces the fiscal framework, reducing concerns about fiscal irresponsibility in the bond market [11] - The effectiveness of the budget in achieving a balance between public service funding and economic growth remains to be seen [11]

Core Insights - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December, but political factors could delay this until January [1] - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida advocates for a loose monetary policy and desires close coordination between the government and the central bank [1] - The cautious stance of the Bank of Japan may lead to a decision to wait until the budget proposal is passed by the Diet before implementing a rate hike [1] - Delaying the rate increase would also provide the Bank of Japan with additional time to assess the momentum of the upcoming wage negotiations [1]

Core Insights - The market is currently focused on U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals, leading to a decrease in risk aversion and a cautious sentiment among gold market bulls, resulting in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces [2] Economic Data Summary - Durable goods orders in the U.S. showed resilience with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% in September, surpassing market expectations of 0.3%, although lower than the revised 3.0% increase from the previous month [3] - Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose by 0.6%, continuing an upward trend; however, when excluding defense orders, the growth slowed significantly to only 0.1%, down from 1.9% in the previous month, indicating demand divergence in certain sectors [3] Labor Market and Manufacturing Insights - The labor market remains strong, with initial jobless claims falling to 216,000, the lowest in seven months, highlighting the current vitality of the labor market [4] - In contrast, the Chicago PMI for November dropped to 36.3, indicating further contraction in the manufacturing sector, reflecting ongoing pressures [4] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Recent comments from several Federal Reserve officials have shifted market expectations towards a potential interest rate cut, with a significant increase in the probability of a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 [5] - New York Fed President John Williams stated that a short-term rate cut would not hinder the Fed's ability to achieve its inflation targets, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller echoed this sentiment, suggesting that current labor market weaknesses justify another rate cut [5] - Fed Governor Stephen Milan also expressed a dovish stance, indicating that the weakening labor market and overall economic conditions necessitate substantial rate cuts to return monetary policy to neutral levels [5] - The anticipated rate cuts have led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which is expected to support the price of non-yielding assets like gold [5] - The market will continue to focus on Federal Reserve policy developments and key economic data, with the December FOMC meeting being a critical juncture for assessing the medium to long-term trends in gold prices [5]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The report's core view: The short - term view of Treasury bond futures is mainly for shock consolidation. In the short term, the possibility of the policy interest rate remaining unchanged is high, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures in the first ten - day period is insufficient. However, economic data such as consumption and investment in October have weakened, and the future monetary policy environment is expected to be relatively loose. Currently, attention should be paid to the statements on monetary policy in the December key meeting and changes in the market's expectations of the central bank's interest rate cuts [5] Group 3 Variety view reference - Financial futures stock index sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is weak, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the long - term expectation of easing still exists [1] Main variety price market driving logic - Financial futures stock index sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday. In the short term, the policy interest rate is likely to remain unchanged, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures in the first ten - day period is insufficient. But the economic data in October has weakened, and the future monetary policy environment is expected to be loose to maintain the stability of macro - aggregate demand, so there is still support for Treasury bond futures. Currently, attention should be paid to the statements on monetary policy in the December key meeting and changes in the market's expectations of the central bank's interest rate cuts [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is complex and diverse, with different trends and investment opportunities in various commodity sectors. Some sectors are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand imbalances, and policy changes. For example, gold and silver may see potential price increases, while some base metals and energy chemicals may face downward pressure or be in a state of oscillation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: On Wednesday, precious metal prices strengthened. London gold broke through $4150 and closed at $4166 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: US envoy Witkoff will visit Moscow next week; the Russian president's press secretary said it's too early to talk about the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly decreased to 216,000 last week. The initial value of durable goods orders in the US in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9%. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax - increase plan. ETFs continued to flow in, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions [2]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy gold at the lower support level. For silver, due to the re - emergence of overseas market tensions and significant price increases, short - term long positions can be considered [2]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.05% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 21,455 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $2811 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly starting rate of aluminum products remained stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: With the increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts in December and the destocking of aluminum ingots this week, the aluminum price showed a technical rebound. It is expected that the price will maintain an oscillatory adjustment [3]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.26% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2720 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 14 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there was no long - term maintenance and production reduction, and the operating capacity fluctuated slightly. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading Strategy: Alumina is still in the stage of game between supply - demand surplus and cost support, and the market is highly wait - and - see. It is expected that the alumina price will maintain an oscillatory and weak trend before large - scale production reduction [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the price fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 9020 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.67%. The position decreased by 3390 lots to 260,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds increased by 16 million yuan [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased by 5 last week, and the starting rate in the southwest region is expected to drop by 50% in November. Social inventory increased slightly, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly this week. On the demand side, the start - up of polysilicon supported the demand, and SMM expects the output in November to be 120,000 tons. Organic silicon monomer plants reached a consensus to support prices. The starting rate of aluminum alloy was relatively stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: Fundamentally, supply and demand are relatively stable. The downstream polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution, supporting prices while the output decreases month - on - month. The disk is expected to operate in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: Yesterday, LC2605 closed at 96,340 yuan/ton (- 1000), with a closing price decrease of 1.03% [4]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was $1185 per ton, up $65 per ton from the previous day. SMM reported the price of electric carbon at 92,800 yuan/ton and industrial carbon at 90,400 yuan/ton. The weekly output last week reached a new high of 22,130 tons, an increase of 585 tons month - on - month. SMM expects the output in November to be 92,080 tons, a decrease of 0.2% month - on - month. In November, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate was 410,000 tons, a 4.0% increase from October and a 43.5% increase year - on - year. The production schedule of ternary materials was 85,000 tons, a 1.4% increase from October and a 39.8% increase year - on - year. It is expected to continue destocking from November to December, but the shortage will narrow in December. The sample inventory last week was 118,400 tons, a decrease of 2052 tons, and the destocking speed slowed down. The inventory was transferred to the trader link, and the high - level futures delayed the downstream price - fixing rhythm. The number of Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts was 27,050 lots (+ 435 lots) [4]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the inventory data after the Thursday session. The degree of destocking has a great impact on short - term price changes. If you hold long positions, it is recommended to pay close attention to the disk and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the disk rose rapidly after opening and then fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 55,895 yuan/ton, up 1165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 2.13%. The position increased by 13,966 lots to 143,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds increased by 777 million yuan. The 12 - 01 month spread rose to 3595. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7270 lots [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly output decreased slightly. SMM expects the output in November to be 120,000 tons. The industry inventory increased this week, and the warehouse receipts continued to decrease as the warehouse receipt cancellation period approached. On the demand side, the prices of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased slightly. The production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in November decreased slightly compared with October. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in September was 9.66GW, a 53.8% decrease year - on - year and a 31.25% decrease month - on - month. The "Document 136" mechanism electricity price policy was intensively introduced in various provinces, and it is expected that the photovoltaic installed capacity in the fourth quarter in China will face pressure [4]. - Trading Strategy: Currently, the spot transaction price is between 53,000 - 55,000 yuan. The near - month disk may gradually strengthen due to the possibility of a short squeeze. It is expected that the downstream production schedule in December will decline at an accelerated pace. When the progress of the near - month storage platform is less than expected, there are many market rumors. It is necessary to distinguish the authenticity. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main rebar 2601 contract closed at 3085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5]. - Fundamentals: According to the Zhaogang data, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 4.82 million tons month - on - month, and the output decreased by 50,000 tons to 442,000 tons. According to the Ganggu data, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 130,000 tons to 3.64 million tons, and the output decreased by 120,000 tons. The supply and demand of steel are weak, and the structural differentiation is still significant. The demand for building materials is in the peak season, with a slight marginal improvement in demand but still weak year - on - year, and the supply also decreased significantly year - on - year, so the contradiction is limited. The demand for plates is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain high, but due to the high output, destocking is difficult. Rebar futures have a large discount and low valuation; the discount of hot - rolled coil futures is basically the same as the previous month, and the valuation is high. Steel mills continue to make losses, and the output may continue to decrease marginally and slightly [5]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract. The reference range for RB01 is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main iron ore 2601 contract closed at 792.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 2.71 million tons month - on - month and increased by 898,000 tons year - on - year. The arrivals increased by 24% month - on - month to 29.39 million tons and increased by 15% year - on - year. The inventory increased by 240,000 tons to 158 million tons compared with Thursday, a decrease of 3.8 million tons year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are weak. According to the Steel Union data, the pig iron output decreased by 600,000 tons month - on - month and increased by 20,000 tons year - on - year. The third round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there is a game for the fourth round. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease steadily. The supply side conforms to the seasonal pattern and is slightly higher year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are weakening marginally. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the valuation is moderately high [5]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the iron ore 2605 contract. The reference range for I01 is 780 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1069 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [6]. - Fundamentals: The pig iron output decreased by 600,000 tons month - on - month to 2.363 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are deteriorating, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease steadily. The third round of price increase has been implemented, and there is a game for subsequent price increases. The inventories at different supply - chain links are differentiated. The coking coal inventories and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants are at a moderate level in the same period of history, the pit - mouth inventory is low, and the overall inventory level is moderate. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure is maintained. The futures valuation is high [6]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. The reference range for JM01 is 1050 - 1100 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term supply is shrinking, but it is still a quantitative change. In the long - term, South America maintains the expectation of large supply in a normal year, but the overall annual output decreases year - on - year. Currently, South America is in the sowing and growing stage. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, while exports are still in a game, depending on China's non - commercial procurement volume in the later stage. In general, the global supply - demand situation is improving marginally but still remains loose [7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are expected to be in a state of oscillation; the domestic market is also expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on the progress of tariff policies and the output in the producing areas [7]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices are running strongly, and corn spot prices continue to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: Weather factors have postponed the supply. Currently, the national corn channel inventory is at a low level, and there is a need for inventory building. The deep - processing profit is good, the demand is strong, and the acquisition intention is relatively high. The short - term supply - demand tightness has led to a rebound in spot prices. However, the arrival of new corn in Northeast China is approaching. The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost of corn has decreased significantly, which suppresses the long - term price expectation. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [7]. - Trading Strategy: Due to the short - term supply - demand mismatch, the futures price is running strongly. Attention should be paid to selling - hedging opportunities [7]. Edible Oils - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the output in the producing areas is high. MPOA estimates that the output from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.2% month - on - month. On the demand side, ITS estimates that the exports of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 25 decreased by 19% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate, and the long - term inventory will decrease seasonally [7]. - Trading Strategy: Palm oil leads the decline in the edible oil market, and there are differences among varieties. Attention should be paid to the later output and biodiesel policies [7]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5391 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 322 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of imported Brazilian sugar after processing and customs clearance was 752 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the export situation of India in the later stage will affect the international trend. In the short - term, raw sugar is oscillating at a low level. In the long - term, the global production increase trend remains unchanged, and the 26/27 sugar - crushing season will continue to seek the bottom through oscillation. In China, new sugar is gradually coming onto the market. The expected increase in production in Guangxi has been significantly revised up, and the import pressure in October is prominent. The domestic pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large, and the current decline has been realized and is coming to an end [7]. - Trading Strategy: In the futures market, it is recommended to go short at high levels; for options, it is recommended to sell call options [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: Overnight, US cotton futures prices rebounded, and international crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, as of October 9, the cumulative net signing of US cotton exports in the 25/26 season was 1.065 million tons, reaching 40.11% of the annual expectation, and the cumulative shipment was 318,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 29.89%. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated upward, and the Xinjiang basis decreased month - on - month. Currently, the increase in cotton prices supports textile enterprises to raise yarn prices [8]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips and mainly adopt the strategy of buying in the range of 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rebounded, and egg spot prices were stable [8]. - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production decreased, and the number of culled hens was at a high level, so the supply pressure decreased. Egg prices dropped to a low level, and traders' willingness to stock up increased, driving sales to pick up. However, the inventory in the circulation link increased. The stock - up demand has driven egg prices to be strong in the short - term, but the sustainability is expected to be limited [8]. - Trading Strategy: The stock - up demand boosts egg prices, and futures prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, while pig spot prices continued to decline [8]. - Fundamentals: The supply of pigs is still abundant. The demand is expected to increase seasonally, and the supply - demand pressure has eased compared with the previous period. However, as the Winter Solstice approaches, there may be a wave of

Core Viewpoint - Australia's inflation rate has risen for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 3.8% in October, which strengthens expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain the benchmark interest rate in December and may consider raising rates in the coming years [1][2][3]. Inflation Data Summary - The overall inflation rate in Australia increased from 3.6% in September to 3.8% in October, with previous months showing rates of 1.9%, 3%, and 3.2% [1]. - The trimmed mean inflation rate, an important reference for the RBA, rose from 3.2% in September to 3.3% in October, with prior months at 2.8%, 3%, and 3% [1]. - The RBA's inflation target is set between 2-3%, indicating that current inflation levels exceed this target, making further rate cuts unlikely [1]. Economic Analyst Insights - Analysts are shifting focus from potential rate cuts to predicting the timing of rate hikes, with some suggesting that the RBA is unlikely to cut rates in December [2][3]. - The possibility of rate hikes is increasing, with forecasts suggesting that if inflation continues to rise, the RBA may raise rates as early as 2026 [3]. - Some analysts believe that the rise in October's inflation may be influenced by temporary factors, leading to only a slight adjustment in their annual inflation expectations [4]. Currency and Economic Outlook - Following the inflation data release, the Australian dollar strengthened, reflecting market expectations for the RBA to maintain rates [5]. - Reports indicate a stabilization in Australia's economic recovery, with significant increases in consumer confidence regarding future economic conditions [5]. - The relationship between the Australian dollar and China's economic performance suggests further appreciation potential for the Australian dollar [5].