Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the dilemma faced by the Bank of Indonesia in monetary policy formulation due to high expansionary fiscal and monetary policies leading to potential inflationary pressures, which may be alleviated by the upcoming harvest season and strengthened government price controls [1][1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Challenges - The Bank of Indonesia is expected to have room for further interest rate cuts to support economic growth, as inflation is projected to remain within the target range [1][1]. - Concerns over the depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah may limit the central bank's ability to pursue a monetary easing cycle [1][1]. Group 2: Currency Performance - Since 2025, the Indonesian Rupiah has been the second worst-performing currency against the US dollar among emerging markets in Asia [1][1].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months, indicating a continuation of liquidity support for the third consecutive month [1] - The 1.1 trillion yuan 3-month buyout reverse repurchase operation on January 8 corresponds to the same amount maturing on the same day, suggesting a rollover of liquidity [1] - Analysts expect the PBOC to conduct another 6-month buyout operation in January, as there is an additional 600 billion yuan maturing, which would further inject medium-term liquidity into the market [1] Group 2 - To support major projects and economic recovery, the new local government debt limit for 2026 has been set, indicating that government bonds will be issued in January [2] - The completion of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools in October 2025 is expected to drive rapid growth in loans in January, enhancing the "opening red" effect of credit [2] - The PBOC is likely to use both buyout reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools in January to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy and ensure ample liquidity in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) currently sees no reason to adjust monetary policy as inflation in the Eurozone remains close to the 2% target level [1] Group 1: ECB's Current Stance - ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Portugal Governor Álvaro Santos Pereira stated that the ECB is in a good position and has achieved price stability [1] - Pereira emphasized that monetary policy has fulfilled its role in supporting the economy when necessary [1] Group 2: Responsibility Shift - The responsibility for addressing the sluggish growth in the European economy has shifted to national governments and the European Union [1] - Pereira highlighted the importance of deepening the single market and noted that the EU still lacks a truly unified market [1] - He stated that reforms must be advanced to fully leverage the potential of the 450 million consumer market in Europe, particularly within the single market [1]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there is still an expectation of long - term easing. Treasury bond futures are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1][5] Group 3 1. Variety view reference - Financial futures index sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1] 2. Main variety price market driving logic - Financial futures index sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back yesterday. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. Considering the strong resilience of short - term macro data and the supply - side pressure of intensive Treasury bond issuance in the first quarter, Treasury bond futures prices are under pressure. In the long run, there is still a possibility of interest rate cuts, and the support for Treasury bond futures still exists [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Precious metals may face short - term significant corrections in January next year due to the Fed's "holding steady", but this does not mean the end of the current gold and silver upward cycle [2] - The Trump administration has the motivation to further loosen fiscal policy under the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the Fed will enter a new and more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell officially leaves office [2] - Currently, the short - term prices of gold and silver have fully reflected the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the context of large price fluctuations, and not to open new long or short positions, while being aware of the risk of price surges followed by declines [2] Summary by Related Content Market Quotes and Data - On January 8, 2026, Shanghai gold fell 0.31% to 1002.20 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 2.99% to 19020.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4470.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 78.45 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.15%, and the US dollar index was 98.73 [1] - The global major silver ETF holdings continued to decline. The SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 235.4 tons yesterday and another 18.33 tons today. The BCOM commodity index rebalancing time is approaching, and major exchanges have raised margin levels, leading the market to focus on the risk of silver price decline from high levels [1] - The US employment data released yesterday was all weaker than expected. The number of ADP employed people in December was 41,000, lower than the expected 47,000. The number of JOLTS job openings in November was 7.146 million, significantly lower than the expected 7.6 million and the previous value of 7.67 million. After the data release, the upward range of gold and silver prices was limited [1] Price and Volume Data of Gold - COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 4467.10 US dollars/ounce, down 0.86% from the previous day, and its trading volume increased by 17.87% to 197,100 lots, while the position decreased by 2.08% to 481,900 lots, and the inventory remained unchanged at 1132 tons [5] - LBMA gold's closing price on January 7, 2026, was 4438.00 US dollars/ounce, down 1.17% from the previous day [5] - SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 998.90 yuan/gram, down 0.60% from the previous day, the trading volume increased by 5.79% to 3.26 million lots, the position decreased by 0.68% to 3.163 million lots, the inventory decreased by 0.05% to 97.65 tons, and the settled funds flowed out by 1.28% to 50.555 billion yuan [5] - AuT + D's trading volume on January 7, 2026, was 63.13 tons, up 42.67% from the previous day, and the position decreased by 3.98% to 190.92 tons [5] Price and Volume Data of Silver - COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 77.98 US dollars/ounce, down 3.99% from the previous day, the position increased by 1.08% to 157,400 lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.77% to 13,864 tons [5] - LBMA silver's closing price on January 7, 2026, was 78.99 US dollars/ounce, up 0.65% from the previous day [5] - SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 19,290.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.83% from the previous day, the trading volume increased by 12.02% to 32.443 million lots, the position decreased by 1.08% to 6.752 million lots, the inventory decreased by 4.82% to 553.43 tons, and the settled funds flowed out by 1.90% to 35.166 billion yuan [5] - AgT + D's trading volume on January 7, 2026, was 823.59 tons, down 6.05% from the previous day, and the position increased by 1.33% to 3,033,278 tons [5] Price Structure and Spread Data - The report provides data on the near - far month structure of COMEX gold, London gold - COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, Au(T + D) - Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, London silver - COMEX silver, Shanghai silver, and Ag(T + D) - Shanghai silver [20][21][33][35] - On January 7, 2026, the SHFE - COMEX gold spread was - 2.72 yuan/gram (- 12.10 US dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA gold spread was - 1.96 yuan/gram (- 8.72 US dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX silver spread was 1835.33 yuan/kilogram (8.16 US dollars/ounce), and the data of the SGE - LBMA silver spread was also provided [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The 12 - month Chinese manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, while the service industry business activity index remained below the boom - bust line. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The stock market showed a slight increase, and there was an obvious stock - bond seesaw between treasury bond futures and stocks. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and the impact of the stock market should be continuously monitored. Traders are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower, rose in the morning to recover losses, and fell back in the afternoon, especially after the stock index closed up. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.44%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.06%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.03% [1] Important Information - **Open Market**: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 286 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 528.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 500.2 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.27%, up from 1.26% the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.46%, up from 1.43% the previous trading day [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly rose compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 4.00 BP to 1.44%, the 5 - year rose 0.81 BP to 1.67%, the 10 - year rose 1.90 BP to 1.90%, and the 30 - year rose 2.41 BP to 2.33% [1] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank announced that on January 8, it would conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months (90 days) through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method. On January 8, 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchases matured, and the central bank's equal - amount operation fully offset the maturity [1] - **US Economic Data**: The US ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, lower than the expected 50,000 and up from a decrease of 32,000 in the previous value. The number of JOLTS job openings in November decreased from 7.45 million to 7.146 million, significantly lower than expected. The ratio of job openings per unemployed person dropped to 0.9, the lowest level since March 2021 and below 1.0 for the first time in four years. The number of hires dropped to the lowest level since mid - 2024. The US ISM services PMI in December rose 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest level since October 2024 [1] - **EU Economic Data**: According to the preliminary data released by Eurostat on Wednesday, the consumer price index (CPI) in December increased by 2% year - on - year, lower than the previous value of 2.1%, in line with economists' expectations. The core inflation rate slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%, and the closely - watched service inflation rate also dropped from 3.5% to 3.4% [1][2] Market Logic - The Chinese manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range after eight consecutive months below the boom - bust line. The production index was 51.7%, and the new order index was 50.8%. The service industry business activity index was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line. The 2026 central bank work conference emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain ample liquidity. In December 2025, the central bank net - injected 5 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond trading operations, for the third consecutive month. On Wednesday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, and closed with a doji, rising 0.19% compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 2.88 trillion yuan, slightly larger than the previous trading day's 2.83 trillion yuan. There was an obvious stock - bond seesaw between treasury bond futures and stocks [1][2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides specific investment recommendations for different asset classes in January [9][12][69]. Report's Core View - After the Fed's rate cut in December, the market shifted its focus to re - pricing the subsequent policy path and liquidity. The domestic policy expectations in China are positive. In January, it is recommended to balance the allocation and seize structural opportunities. Long - term overweight is suggested for equities and non - ferrous metals, while precious metals should be treated with caution regarding volatility and can be re - weighted after volatility stabilizes [2][3][69]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. December Review of Major Assets - The macro theme of global major assets in December shifted from a single monetary policy expectation to structural pricing and capital transaction - driven scenarios under risk appetite recovery. Asset performance showed divergence [15]. - In the equity market, A - shares performed well, with small and medium - sized stocks and growth styles outperforming large - cap indices. Overseas, US equity indices were nearly flat [16]. - In the bond market, government bonds and US Treasuries performed weakly, with yields rising [17]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index weakened, the RMB was relatively strong, and the Japanese yen declined after the Bank of Japan's rate hike [18]. - In the commodity market, precious metals and new energy metals performed significantly better, base metals rose but with weaker gains, ferrous metals were generally weak, energy and chemicals were weak, and agricultural products had mixed performance [19]. 2. Macro Environment Outlook 2.1 Overseas Macro - The global PMI in November slightly declined to 50.5, but remained in the expansion range [23]. - US economic data from October - November showed weakening inflation, an increase in the unemployment rate, and stable consumption. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a dovish tone [24][28][29]. - Attention should be paid to the nomination of the new Fed chair. Different candidates have different policy stances, which may cause market fluctuations. The US bond market shows a "bear steepening" feature, and the US dollar is under pressure [30]. - The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate unchanged in December and raised GDP forecasts. Japan's rate hike was not radical, and short - term liquidity may tighten slightly, but the expectation of overseas easing in 2026 remains [33]. - Non - US developed markets are stable, and emerging markets had a generally positive economic sentiment in November [34][35]. 2.2 Chinese Domestic Macro - In December, domestic macro indicators were stable. Important meetings set tasks for the "15th Five - Year Plan", raising market expectations for additional policies in the first half of 2026 [36]. - The economic structure showed differentiation, with real estate and infrastructure investment remaining weak, manufacturing PMI rising to the expansion zone, consumption being stable and slightly weak, and exports contributing significantly to the economy [37]. - Social financing slightly exceeded expectations, M1 data rebound did not change the trend of activating funds, PPI was on an upward trend, and core CPI unexpectedly recovered, indicating an improvement in inflation in 2026 [37][38]. 3. Outlook for Major Assets 3.1 Equity indices - In January, policy easing expectations are likely to be the main narrative in the equity market. Domestic equities may trade in a volatile but generally stronger trend. Fiscal policy may front - load in 2026, and monetary policy may ease marginally in the first half of the year, providing a window for increasing equity index allocation [41]. 3.2 Commodities - **Precious Metals**: In January, precious metals will enter a critical phase of speculation on the Fed's monetary policy path. Gold and silver are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend under the dual fiscal and monetary easing macro - backdrop. Attention should be paid to the US fiscal deficit and the Fed's policy path changes [44]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The macro environment is favorable, and upstream raw materials are tight, with supply disruption concerns. Although actual demand is weak, non - ferrous metals are expected to maintain a generally volatile but stronger trend, especially in the medium - to - long - term with supply remaining tight [49]. - **Ferrous Metals**: In January, ferrous metals are expected to trade in a range - bound manner. In the medium - to - long - term, "anti - involution" policies and export control measures may reshape the supply - demand balance and improve industry profits [54]. - **Energy & Chemicals**: In January, the crude oil sector will verify OPEC+ production cut compliance. Oil prices may oscillate in a low range. Geopolitics and supply - side factors will affect prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the global oversupply assumption remains, but prices below $60 may trigger support measures [57][59]. 3.3 Bonds - Treasury bond movements in January may continue to be range - bound, with short - end performance relatively better than long - end. In the long - term, bonds have limited upside potential as inflation expectations may put pressure on medium - and long - duration bond yields [64].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation on January 8, 2026, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, marking the third consecutive month of equal-scale operations [2] Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On January 8, 2026, the PBOC will conduct a fixed-quantity, interest-rate tender, multi-price reverse repo operation amounting to 1.1 trillion yuan with a term of 3 months (90 days) [2] - The operation on January 8 will match the maturity of 1.1 trillion yuan of 3-month reverse repos, indicating a continuation of the same scale for the third month [2] - Additionally, there is an expectation of another 600 billion yuan 6-month reverse repo operation in January, with a likelihood of an increased amount [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - Analysts anticipate that the PBOC will utilize both reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to inject medium-term liquidity into the market throughout January [2] - The overall monetary policy for January reflects a continuation of a "moderately accommodative" stance, aimed at ensuring sufficient liquidity [2] - There is also a potential for an additional 200 billion yuan MLF operation due to upcoming maturities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system through a series of monetary policy tools, including a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation set for January 8, which is a continuation of previous operations aimed at ensuring liquidity stability in the financial market [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Operations - On January 8, the PBOC will conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of three months, marking the third consecutive month of maintaining the same amount for this operation [1]. - The 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on January 8 corresponds to the same amount maturing on that day, indicating a strategy of rolling over liquidity support [1]. - The PBOC has a total of 600 billion yuan in six-month reverse repos maturing in January, suggesting a continued commitment to ensuring liquidity remains abundant [1]. Group 2: Liquidity Management Tools - The PBOC has established a comprehensive set of liquidity management tools that can effectively respond to short-term fluctuations in fiscal revenue and government bond issuance [1]. - China's liquidity tool system aligns with international practices, featuring various tools such as automatic pledge financing, reverse repos, medium-term lending facilities (MLF), and regular lending facilities (SLF) [2]. - The management logic of these tools is consistent with international standards, focusing on banks as primary counterparties and utilizing high liquidity, low-risk assets like government bonds for collateral [2]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The current ample liquidity in China's banking system is crucial for stabilizing the macroeconomic environment and ensuring the healthy operation of financial markets [1]. - Recent innovations in monetary policy tools, such as including government bond trading in the toolkit, are expected to enhance the effectiveness of liquidity management [1][2]. - The multi-faceted liquidity tool system reflects the professionalism and effectiveness of China's monetary policy, creating a conducive liquidity environment for high-quality economic development [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the sustained upward trend of A-shares, driven primarily by the technology sector and supportive government policies, with significant market confidence stemming from recent policy initiatives and global investor interest in China's technological advancements [1][2][3] - The A-share market has seen a structural shift, with the electronic industry surpassing the banking sector in market capitalization for the first time in August 2025, indicating a growing dominance of technology stocks [1] - The overall market's "technology content" has exceeded 25%, with notable annual gains in indices such as the ChiNext Index (up 49.57%), STAR Market (up 35.92%), and North Exchange 50 (up 38.81%), all outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1] Group 2 - Continuous improvements in market regulation and policy support have been pivotal in boosting A-share market confidence, with a focus on creating a multi-tiered capital market system that facilitates long-term investments [2] - The combination of policy incentives and technological innovation has led to a significant increase in the number of high-tech companies listed, optimizing market structure and reshaping valuation systems, with over 90% of companies on the ChiNext, STAR Market, and North Exchange being high-tech firms [2] - The influx of capital, driven by declining yields on traditional savings and low-risk assets, has further supported the market, with regulatory efforts encouraging long-term capital, including insurance funds, to enter the market [2] Group 3 - The upward momentum in the A-share market is expected to continue into 2026, supported by flexible monetary policies from the central bank and favorable external conditions, including anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Structural changes in the economy, such as industry upgrades and a shift in asset allocation from real estate to financial assets, are expected to drive the growth of competitive high-tech companies [3] - The macroeconomic stability in China is projected to provide a solid foundation for capital market development, with ongoing efforts to expand domestic demand and improve profitability in traditional industries, further supporting the technology sector's growth [3]