Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall futures market is affected by trade conflicts, with most domestic futures main contracts showing a downward trend. The market is worried about the global economy, and the prices of commodities such as crude oil, copper, and silver have generally declined. Different varieties have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals [3][5][7] - Urea is less affected by the macro - environment, with demand weakening month - on - month, and supply and inventory providing support, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Crude oil prices are weakening due to trade war concerns and OPEC +'s decision to increase production, and are expected to fluctuate downward [5] - Copper prices are under pressure due to trade war concerns, but the supply is expected to be tight, and it is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals after the digestion of macro - negative sentiment [10] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to run weakly due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and high inventory [11][13] - The price of asphalt is expected to weaken and fluctuate downward due to trade war concerns and weak demand, but the cracking spread is expected to strengthen [14] - PP and plastic are expected to fluctuate downward due to factors such as trade war and cost pressure, and it is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL [16][18] - PVC is under short - term downward pressure due to factors such as trade war, high inventory, and weak demand [19] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [20] - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in export demand and domestic macro - policies [22] - Coking coal is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term due to limited changes in fundamentals and low valuation [23] Summary by Commodity Urea - Affected by domestic fundamentals, the demand side is weakening month - on - month, and supply and inventory support the market. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 1780 - 1900 yuan/ton [3] Crude Oil - Trump's tariff policy and OPEC +'s production increase decision lead to weakening prices, with a downward - trending and fluctuating market [4][5] Copper - Affected by the trade war, the price is under pressure. The supply is expected to be tight, and it is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals after the digestion of macro - negative sentiment [10] Lithium Carbonate - Weak supply - demand fundamentals and high inventory lead to a weak price trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [11][13] Asphalt - Supply contraction, weak demand, and trade war concerns lead to a downward - trending market, but the cracking spread is expected to strengthen [14] PP - Affected by trade war and cost pressure, it is expected to fluctuate downward, and it is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL [16] Plastic - Affected by trade war, cost pressure, and the end of the peak season, it is expected to fluctuate downward, and it is recommended to go long on PP and short on LL and short the 05 basis [17][18] PVC - Affected by trade war, high inventory, and weak demand, it is under short - term downward pressure [19] Iron Ore - Affected by trade uncertainty, it is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hold the 5 - 9 positive spread [20] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Affected by the trade war, the market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in export demand and domestic macro - policies [22] Coking Coal - Affected by trade war, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term due to limited changes in fundamentals and low valuation [23]

昨天说标普500连续两日下跌超10%，是5-10年一遇的市场调整，可以载入史册。 今天，A股和港股也急着青史留名了，下图，是财通孙彬彬团队做的，把今天的波动，和历史上几次对比一下。 A股这边，比20年初那次，其实跌幅更大， 近3000只个股跌停 ，占比接近60%，从这个角度看，比这更惨的，只有2015年的6月了，彼时 80%以 上的个股单日跌停（当时上市公司数量少，跌停的个股在2000只出头）； 而港股这边， 恒生指数单日跌超13% ，上图说了，一共4次比这跌幅更大，而进入21世纪后，和今天能媲美的，只有2008年10月的全球金融危机 期间了（当时单日最大跌幅12%多）。 所以，面对这种史诗级的暴跌，还是得留下一些对市场的观察，说不定，5-10年之后，再遇到类似的行情，还能拿出来参考一下。 我总结了十二条市场发生的"事实"，大家可以依次看看，也是结合了昨天《 最全的周一开盘指南 》里的预判和应对思路，正好recall一下。 本文涉及大量按摩桥段，你们可以给暴躁的客户转一下 。 分别是： 1、普跌—— 全球人民 都处于水生活热之中。 2、有史以来首次， 国家队 主动在盘中，宣布出手加仓。 3 、 我不卖，你就没 ...

以下文章来源于教你挖掘基 ，作者挖掘基 教你挖掘基 . 投资理财有方法，我们手把手教你挖掘牛基~ 在这个乍暖还寒的春日里，海外惊雷乍起。 手机推送接连震动——特朗普超预期的关税政策似灰犀牛般横冲直撞，全球风险资产在流动性冲击下犹如惊弓之鸟，一片风声鹤唳。 北京时间4月3日凌晨，特朗普公布对等关税措施：对全球征收10%的基准关税，4月5日生效；对美国贸易逆差最高的60个国家征收额外关税，其中中国商品面临 34%的关税税率加征，将于4月9日生效。 随后，中国商务部迅速11箭齐发，以同等力度反击：对所有美国进口商品加征34%关税，限制中重稀土出口，并 对16家美国实体列入出口管制管控。 （来源：Choice） 特朗普2.0时代关税政策不仅针对中国，更将欧盟、加拿大、墨西哥甚至印度洋的无人企鹅岛纳入打击范围，试图通过"极限施压"重塑全球贸 易规则。 书房台灯的光正好点亮案头那本泛黄的《论持久战》，封面上毛主席的笔迹苍劲如铁。 此刻的贸易硝烟，恰似1930年代延安窑洞里的灯火，穿透时空照亮今日的迷雾。 01 灰犀牛事件的"已知"与"未知" ——特朗普关税的本质 关税，这个看似简单的经济工具，是进口国对跨境商品设置的通行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downturn in the Chinese stock market, highlighting the significant drop in major indices and the increasing number of stocks hitting their daily limit down. It reflects on the lack of effective policy responses to the economic challenges posed by external factors, particularly U.S. tariffs, and the need for timely economic stimulus measures. Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a substantial decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 7.34% to fall below 3100 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 9.66%, and the ChiNext Index down 12.5%. The total market turnover reached 161.86 billion yuan, an increase of 46.03 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 3000 stocks hitting their daily limit down [18][24]. Economic Policy Discussion - Chinese officials are reportedly discussing preemptive economic stimulus policies in response to the impact of U.S. tariffs. This includes potential subsidies for consumption, childbirth, and export-to-domestic transitions. The discussions are seen as reactive rather than proactive, raising concerns about the timing of policy announcements [8][12][15]. Foreign Investment Sentiment - Foreign investment sentiment has been negatively impacted by the trade tensions, with reports indicating that the likelihood of a comprehensive agreement between China and the U.S. is low. Major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have expressed concerns about a significant slowdown in China's economic growth in the coming quarters due to these external pressures [12][13][15]. Sector Performance - The article notes that various sectors are experiencing different levels of impact. The agriculture sector showed resilience with stocks like Beidahuang and Shen Nong Seed Industry seeing gains, while sectors such as electronics and machinery faced significant outflows of capital [24][33]. Institutional Investment Trends - Institutional investors have shown a mixed response, with significant net outflows from sectors like electronics and machinery, while agricultural stocks have attracted net inflows. The overall trend indicates a cautious approach from institutional investors amid market volatility [24][26][30].

Core Points - The article discusses the significant impact of President Trump's new tariff policy, which imposes at least a 10% tariff on all imported goods starting April 5, and higher tariffs on countries deemed as serious trade violators [1] - The policy is viewed as a major shift in international trade order since World War II, raising concerns among family offices and investors about its implications for the market and economy [1][11] Impact on Family Offices - Family offices are increasingly reconsidering their investments in the U.S. due to concerns over economic growth and policy uncertainty stemming from the new tariffs [11][19] - There is a noticeable trend of high-net-worth family office clients diversifying their portfolios away from the U.S. to mitigate risks associated with the trade war [11][20] - Some family offices are exploring investments in hard assets like gold and real estate, while others are raising cash to wait for market stabilization [19][20] Market Reactions - The aggressive tariff strategy has led to a significant market downturn, with the U.S. stock market experiencing its worst week since March 2020 [1] - Notable private equity firms have halted IPOs and acquisitions due to the uncertainty created by the tariffs, indicating a paralysis in the private equity sector [3][4] - Hedge funds are facing increased pressure and are considering stepping back from trading due to the chaotic market conditions, with some funds suffering significant losses [6][8] Economic Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its U.S. economic growth outlook and increased the probability of a recession to 45%, citing tightening financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty [8][10] - The potential for tariffs to raise effective rates by 20 percentage points could lead to further revisions in economic forecasts, including the likelihood of a recession [10] - UBS estimates that the new tariffs could slow global economic growth by 50 to 100 basis points, with the most significant impacts felt in Thailand and Singapore [10] Investment Trends - There is a shift among ultra-high-net-worth investors towards European and Asian markets, driven by concerns over U.S. economic policies and the search for better growth opportunities [11][19] - Family offices are increasingly looking for international investments not only for diversification but also as a hedge against currency fluctuations and to access unique investment opportunities [11][19] - The trend of reallocating investments away from the U.S. is becoming more pronounced, with family offices seeking to capitalize on emerging opportunities in other regions [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has officially initiated a trade war with the announcement of "reciprocal" tariffs, resulting in an average import tariff rate exceeding 20%, the highest since the 1930s, reflecting a significant shift in global trade dynamics under Trump's administration [1] Tariff Summary - The global average tariff increase is set at 10%, with countries facing larger trade deficits subjected to higher tariffs. The so-called "comprehensive tax rate" includes not only tariffs but also VAT, non-tariff barriers, and any perceived unfair practices by the U.S. [1] - China faces a cumulative tariff burden of approximately 65%, which includes an average pre-Trump tariff of 11%, a 20% tariff related to fentanyl issues, and an additional 34% in reciprocal tariffs [1] Impact on Other Countries - Asian countries are significantly affected, with Vietnam facing a 46% tariff, Thailand 36%, Taiwan 32%, Indonesia 32%, India 26%, and Malaysia 24%. Europe faces a 20% tariff, while the UK is subjected to a 10% tariff, indicating some negotiation flexibility [2] Additional Tax Measures - A 25% tariff on automobiles has been introduced, and the exemption for small Chinese goods has been canceled [3] Strategic Focus of Tariffs - Tariffs are strategically aimed at China, with rates exceeding 60%, and also target key manufacturing sectors related to military and technological security, such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles [4] - Tariffs are also used as leverage in broader negotiations, including issues like the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4] Economic Impact on the U.S. - The imposition of tariffs is expected to create stagflation pressures in the U.S. economy, with an estimated GDP impact of about 1.6 percentage points, increasing the likelihood of a recession in the second half of the year [4] - The tariffs will cause a one-time spike in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but a decline in overall demand may lead to a deflationary effect, insufficient to alter the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [4] Impact on China’s Economy and Policy - The cumulative tariffs from the U.S. are projected to reduce China's GDP by approximately 1.0 to 1.5 percentage points. In response, China is likely to enhance domestic demand strategies, with potential policy measures including childcare subsidies and urban renovation projects [5] Market Implications for China - The tariffs exacerbate global economic instability, but China's domestic market resilience may provide a competitive edge. The impact on economic growth is unavoidable, yet available policy tools can effectively mitigate adverse effects, maintaining a stable economic outlook [6] - In the fixed income market, external uncertainties may enhance the appeal of bonds, while stock market activity will influence bond performance, with expectations of more accommodative monetary policy in the second quarter [7] Currency Impact - The impact on the Chinese yuan is expected to be less severe than in 2018, with short-term fluctuations around 7.3. The stability of the yuan is supported by the narrowing interest rate differential between China and the U.S. [7]

关税阴云笼罩全球市场，周一美股期货开盘暴跌，恐慌指数期货暴涨，亚洲股市重挫，铜油暴跌，避险情绪驱动美债、日元、瑞郎走高，黄金跌破3000美元后 快速反弹。 上周四以来，美国股市经历了惊心动魄的三天大跌。 上周四和周五，标普500指数创下自2020年3月以来最大的两日跌幅，短短两天内超过5万亿美元的市值灰 飞烟灭。 科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数跌入熊市区间，道指也进入回调区域。 周一早间，美股期货开盘延续暴跌态势， 标普500指数期货一度跌5.4%， 纳斯达克100指数期货一度跌6.2%，现跌不到4%，恐慌指数VIX期货飙涨34.4%； 美股夜盘，苹果跌5.5%，特斯拉跌10%，英伟达跌9%； 亚太市场跳 水，日经225指数、东证指数均跌超5%。此前，日经225指数和东证指数期货在触及跌停板后暂停交易。 | 亚太市场 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 日经225 | 韩国综合 | 新加坡海峡 | | 31817.94 | 2355.29 | 3553.56 | | -1962.64 -5.81% -110.13 -4.47% -272.30 -7.12% | | | | 澳洲标普200 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The global financial markets experienced significant turmoil due to the new U.S. tariff policy, with a market value loss of $5.4 trillion following the announcement, highlighting the tension between the government's optimistic stance and market reactions [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Government Response - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bencet emphasized the necessity of the tariff policy and dismissed concerns about a potential recession, suggesting that the market underestimated the effects of Trump's policies [1][2]. - Bencet downplayed the impact of market fluctuations on long-term savings, arguing that retirees should not be swayed by daily market changes [2]. - Other officials, including Commerce Secretary Howard Ratnik and trade advisor Peter Navarro, reinforced the administration's hardline stance on tariffs, indicating no plans to delay the implementation of reciprocal tariffs [2]. Group 2: Market Reaction - The S&P 500 index fell to its lowest point in 11 months, marking the fourth-largest two-day drop since World War II, as noted by former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers [1][2]. - The market's reaction was characterized as a short-term response to what Bencet referred to as "organic animal" behavior, yet the uncertainty surrounding future market movements remains [2][4]. Group 3: EU Response - The European Union is preparing to implement countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, potentially targeting up to $28 billion worth of American products, including a wide range of goods from meat to household items [3][4]. - Internal divisions within the EU regarding the response strategy were noted, with some countries advocating for a more aggressive approach while others called for caution [3][4]. - The EU's proposed counter-tariff list is set to be voted on, with the first phase of tariffs expected to take effect on April 15 [4].

期货研究报告|原油月报 2025-04-06 特朗普关税与欧佩克加快增产推动油价回落 研究院 能源化工组 研究员 潘翔 0755-82767160 panxiang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3023104 投资咨询号：Z0013188 康远宁 0755-23991175 kangyuanning@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3049404 投资咨询号：Z0015842 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 核心观点 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 ■ 市场分析 4 月 2 日，特朗普正式公布了其关税政策，加征关税的范围以及力度均超出市场预期， 全球经济增长与国际贸易面临巨大的不确定性，市场担忧增加导致金融市场出现剧烈 反应，美股、原油、铜、白银等风险资产均遭到大幅抛售，油价连续两个交易日跌幅 超过 10%。除此之外，在 4 月 2 日的同一天，欧佩克宣布将在 5 月份加快增产，当月 实施 41.1 万桶/日的产量配额调整，这相当于原计划每月增产 13.8 万桶/日的三倍，沙 特与欧佩克的突然转向也让市场措手不及，加剧了油价下行压力。两个事件表面上毫 无关联，但不能排除特朗普为了 ...

清明假期期间，随着我方的反制措施发布，市场的声音迅速两极分化，极左和极右——要么是美方赢麻了、中要跪，要么是美方蠢坏了、中必赢。 但理性来看（当然也许我说理性，很多人也觉得不够理性），不管是对等关税，还是强硬反制， 从资产价格的角度看，无疑是双输的局面 。 就好像一对重量级拳手，在擂台对垒，原先都戴着拳套，有裁判居间维持秩序，看似拳拳到肉，但实际因为有拳套的缓冲，以及可以搂抱暂停，所以顶多 是皮开肉绽，不至于伤筋动骨，最后不管是点胜还是KO，双方都可以拿着千万美刀的出场费，潇洒地离开。 而这轮贸易战掀桌子后， 就好像两位拳手把拳套给脱了 ，裁判也没有了， 直接硬碰硬，这就导致，不管最后是谁笑到最后，双方一定都会给对方，造成 更大的伤害。 本文确保都是干货，建议收藏。 节前A股收盘后，全球金融市场又发生了 足以载入史册的危机模式 ——标普500，周四、周五两日，累计下跌10.8%，而上一次两日跌幅超过10%，还是 在2020年3月，美股因疫情熔断的期间；再上一次，是2008年的金融危机；而大多数人印象比较深刻的，去年7-8月，美股因日元加息导致的大跌过程中， 标普500连续两日最大跌幅都没有超过5%。 所以，说 ...