2025年05月21日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 21 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 橡胶：宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 合成橡胶：丁二烯回调，震荡承压 | 4 | | 沥青：区间震荡，观望为上 | 6 | | LLDPE：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 8 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 10 | | 烧碱：反弹难持续 | 11 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 16 | | 尿素：高位震荡 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：短期支撑走强，关注内盘反弹 | 22 | | PVC：后期仍有压力 | 25 | | 燃料油：日盘小幅上涨，短期转入调整走势 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘继续转弱，外盘高低硫价差小幅回弹 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡，6-8反套减仓止盈；10-12反套持有 | 28 | | 短纤：短期震荡，成本支撑偏弱 | 31 | | 瓶片：短期震荡，成 ...

早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现，沪金涨超2%，沪银、SC原油、国际铜、沪锡涨超1%，棉花、 菜粕、纸浆涨近1%。跌幅方面，烧碱、丁二烯橡胶、苯乙烯、低硫燃料油（LU）、氧化铝跌超1%，橡 胶跌近1%。 ...

Group 1 - The price of silicon iron from Hebei Steel for May is set at 5800 CNY/ton, down 150 CNY/ton from April's price of 5950 CNY/ton [1] - As of May 19, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports is 146.2763 million tons, a decrease of 2.5825 million tons from the previous week [1] - Satellite data indicates that from May 12 to May 18, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 69600 tons to 13.763 million tons [1] Group 2 - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 to 20 increased by 1.55% compared to the same period last month [1] - The shipping survey agency ITS reports that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 to 20 increased by 5.3% compared to the same period last month [2] Group 3 - The feed industry reports an increase in the quantity of soybeans passing customs, alleviating the soybean shortage issue, with supply expected to continue increasing [1] - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) has raised its forecast for Brazil's soybean exports in May to 14.52 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 14.27 million tons [1] Group 4 - From January to April 2025, China imported a total of 67.77 million tons of bauxite, a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [1] - Guinea accounted for 53.12 million tons of the total bauxite imports, representing 78.38% of the total, with a year-on-year increase of 42.2% [1] Group 5 - The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reports that global primary aluminum production in April 2025 was 6.033 million tons, compared to 5.901 million tons in the same month last year [2]

2025/5/20 09:48 【国富期货早间看点】⻢来下调6⽉⽑棕榈油参考价格⾄9.5% 66% 20250520 【国富期货早间看点】马来下调6月毛棕榈油参考价格至9.5%的出口 关税区间 美豆播种率为66%高于市场预期 20250520 2025年05月20日 07:28 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日漆跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3915.00 | 1.89 | 0. 80 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 65. 48 | 0.23 | 0. 48 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 62. 15 | 0. 36 | 0. 65 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1051. 25 | 0. 02 | 0. 31 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 291. 20 | -0. 21 | 0. 10 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 49.48 | 1.14 | 0. 86 | | | 最新价 | 漆跌幅(%) | 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - L2509 oscillated weakly and closed at 7,222 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week's output decreased by 5.41% month-on-month to 610,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 4.55% month-on-month to 79.52%. On the demand side, the average operating rate of downstream products last week increased by 0.57% month-on-month. In terms of inventory, the production enterprise inventory decreased by 8.27% month-on-month to 527,800 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.15% month-on-month to 610,600 tons. In May, the PE industry had centralized maintenance. This week, the Zhejiang Petrochemical and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical plants were shut down, while the Maoming Petrochemical and Yanchang Zhongmei plants restarted, with production and capacity utilization expected to decline slightly. The downstream shed film and mulch film were in the off - season; packaging film orders increased significantly due to tariff reduction; PE pipe demand was mainly for terminal rigid needs. In terms of cost, the stalemate in the US - Iran nuclear negotiations offset the negative impact of Moody's downgrading of the US sovereign credit rating, and international oil prices rose slightly. In the short term, L2509 is expected to oscillate, with support around 7,160 yuan/ton and resistance around 7,340 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 7,222 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 7,155 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 7,135 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 7,222 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The trading volume was 314,792 lots, down 6,743 lots; the open interest was 511,907 lots, down 2,179 lots. The spread between the January and May contracts was 20 yuan, up 178 yuan. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 375,228 lots, down 5,551 lots; the short position was 417,811 lots, down 7,821 lots; the net long position was - 42,583 lots, up 2,270 lots [2] 现货市场 - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,413.91 yuan/ton, down 20.87 yuan; in East China, it was 7,553.41 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis was 191.91 yuan, down 4.87 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.55 US dollars/barrel, down 0.02 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 569.38 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 871 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 781 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 产业情况 - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 79.52%, down 4.55 percentage points [2] 下游情况 - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 48.7%, up 1.11 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 32.17%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 16.68%, down 2.76 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 14.81%, up 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.57%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 13.04%, down 0.38 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 13.05%, down 0.34 percentage points [2] Industry News - From May 9th to 15th, China's polyethylene production was 610,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.41%; the capacity utilization rate was 79.52%, a decrease of 4.55 percentage points from the previous period. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products from May 9th to 15th increased by 0.57% compared with the previous period. As of May 16th, the inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 610,600 tons, a decrease of 1.15% from the previous period; as of May 14th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprise samples was 527,800 tons, a decrease of 8.27% from the previous period [2]

免责声明 继续牵制市场价格。菜油市场呈现短期供应宽松但长期不确定性较大。盘面来看，受棕榈油走强提振，菜油震荡收涨，总体仍维持 区间震荡，短线参与为主。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 菜籽系产业日报 2025-05-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9395 | 34 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2510 | 1 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 195 | -18 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 208 | 0 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 316509 | 23580 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 623440 | 9329 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 41370 | 6808 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -40947 | 39 ...

Report Overview - Title: "Soybean Oil: Weak Driving Force in the Soy Complex, Mainly Range-Bound" - Date: May 20, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The soybean oil market is mainly range-bound due to the weak driving force in the soy complex [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Data - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 7,984 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.80%, and (night session) was 8,054 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.88%. Trading volume was 514,650 lots, a decrease of 154,250 lots, and open interest was 397,913 lots, an increase of 10,473 lots [2] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 7,754 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54%, and (night session) was 7,780 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.34%. Trading volume was 378,133 lots, a decrease of 13,476 lots, and open interest was 602,914 lots, a decrease of 2,419 lots [2] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,277 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.20%, and (night session) was 9,397 yuan/ton with an increase of 1.29%. Trading volume was 352,218 lots, a decrease of 105,292 lots, and open interest was 287,993 lots, a decrease of 892 lots [2] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 3,884 ringgit/ton with an increase of 1.54%, and (night session) was 3,915 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.85% [2] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 49.48 cents/pound with an increase of 1.12% [2] 3.1.2 Spot Data - Palm oil (24 degrees, Guangdong): Spot price was 8,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price was 8,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price was 9,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] - Malaysian palm oil FOB (continuous contract): Spot price was 960 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/ton [2] 3.1.3 Basis Data - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis was 566 yuan/ton [2] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis was 406 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis was 23 yuan/ton [2] 3.1.4 Spread Data - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: 1,363 yuan/ton, compared to 1,293 yuan/ton the previous day [2] - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: - 230 yuan/ton, compared to - 252 yuan/ton the previous day [2] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread: - 4 yuan/ton, compared to - 6 yuan/ton the previous day [2] - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread: 10 yuan/ton, compared to 8 yuan/ton the previous day [2] - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread: 204 yuan/ton, compared to 181 yuan/ton the previous day [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - MPOB: Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for June to the 9.5% export tariff range. The reference price in June is 3,926.59 ringgit/ton, compared to 4,449.35 ringgit/ton in May [3] - SPPOMA: From May 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 6.34%, oil extraction rate increased by 0.41%, and production increased by 8.50% [5] - USDA crop growth report: As of the week ending May 18, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 66%, higher than the market expectation of 65%, compared to 48% the previous week, 50% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 53%. The soybean emergence rate was 34%, compared to 17% the previous week, 25% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 23% [5] - Brazil's Secex: In the first three weeks of May 2025, Brazil exported 7,836,693.24 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 712,426.66 tons, a 11.34% increase compared to the average daily export volume in May last year. The total export volume in May last year was 13,436,722.31 tons [5] - Abiove: Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast is 1.697 billion tons (previously 1.696 billion tons). The soybean crushing volume forecast is 57.5 million tons. The soybean export volume forecast is slightly lowered to 1.082 billion tons (previously 1.085 billion tons). The soybean oil export volume forecast is 1.4 million tons, and the soybean oil production forecast remains at 11.45 million tons [6] - Buenos Aires Grain Exchange: Due to recent storms, the 2024/25 soybean crop in north - western Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, may suffer "significant losses". The estimated soybean production in Argentina for 2024/25 is 50 million tons. There are still 730,000 hectares of soybean crops in Buenos Aires Province that have not been harvested. New precipitation may cause further losses [7] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0 - Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 - The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [8]

白糖产业期现日报 テ「发期货 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月20日 刘珂 Z0016336 指标 现值 涨跌幅 单位 前值 涨跌 白糖2601 5718 5723 -5 -0.09% 元/吨 5853 白糖2509 5855 -2 -0.03% -135 -132 -3 -2.27% 白糖1-9价差 元/吨 主力合约持仓量 299940 301174 -1234 -0.41% 手 32836 32580 256 0.79% 仓单数量 张 有效预报 91 350 -259 -74.00% 现货市场价格 涨跌幅 单位 指标 现值 前值 涨跌 南宁 6145 6145 0 0.00% 昆明 5985 5985 0 0.00% 南宁县差 292 290 2 0.69% 昆明基差 132 130 2 1.54% 元/吨 进口糖:巴西(配额内) 4875 4954 -79 -1.59% 进口糖:巴西 (配额外) 6206 6309 -103 -1.63% -1270 #口巴西(配额内)与南宁价差 -1191 -79 -6.63% 进口巴西（配额外）与南宁价差 -103 -62.80% ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The cost support has weakened due to the decline in raw materials and electricity prices during the wet season in the southwest region. There are no bright spots on the consumer side, and high industry inventories are suppressing prices. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the southwest and the impact of macro - sentiment [2]. - In the short term, actual spot transactions are extremely rare. Downstream enterprises are mainly consuming inventory. Near - month contracts are still trading based on delivery games, while far - month contracts are trading on weak reality and weak expectations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price continued to bottom out. The main contract 2507 opened at 8150 yuan/ton and closed at 8130 yuan/ton, a change of (-155) yuan/ton or (-1.87)% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2507 was 155,038 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,384 lots, a change of - 49 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in East China was 8800 - 9100 (-150) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9600 - 10100 (-150) yuan/ton. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest region also continued to decline. The price of 97 silicon also declined [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. It is reported that the market trading volume is expected to recover faster in mid - to late May, and the low - level inventory reduction of monomer enterprises has been effective recently. Although the operation of monomer enterprises in North and Southwest China has recovered, those in the Northwest are still in the maintenance period [1]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, focus on range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 19, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 36,900 yuan/ton and closed at 37,150 yuan/ton, a change of 0.51% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 28,688 (32,702 the previous day) lots, and the trading volume was 72,986 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The quotation of polysilicon re - feedstock was 34.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30.00 - 32.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, N - type silicon was 37.00 - 39.00 (-0.75) yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased month - on - month. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 25.00 tons, a month - on - month change of - 2.27%, the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW, a month - on - month change of 7.22%, the weekly polysilicon output was 21,400.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.00%, and the silicon wafer output was 12.42GW, a month - on - month change of 0.50% [4]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, focus on range operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - **Silicon Wafers** - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.28 (-0.02) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.08 (-0.02) yuan/piece [6]. - **Battery Cells** - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; and HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. - **Components** - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. Factors to Watch - Resumption of production in the southwest and changes in the operation in the northwest [2][5]. - Changes in the operation of polysilicon enterprises [5]. - Policy disturbances [5]. - Macro and capital sentiment [2][5]. - Operation of organic silicon enterprises [5]. - Impact of industry self - discipline on upstream and downstream operations [7]. - Impact of futures listing on the spot market [7].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-05-20 玻璃纯碱：成交略有好转，玻碱震荡运行 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡偏强。现货方面，市场成交好转，下游拿货情绪较好。 供需与逻辑：近期玻璃产量呈现下降趋势。然而由于地产和深加工需求恢复不足，导致补库力度和持续性不强， 玻璃累库明显，去库压力较大，价格缺乏向上动力，后期高温梅雨季节不利于玻璃储存，企业降价出货降库的意 向或更加强烈。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面窄幅震荡。现货方面，市场需求一般，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：受碱厂检修增加影响，近期纯碱产量有所下滑，但仍维持宽松状态。目前光伏增量放缓，纯碱需求 提升空间有限，去库压力仍然偏大，关注后续碱厂夏检情况及年度新增产能投产进度。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 市场相对谨慎，黑色震荡偏弱 风险 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：市场情绪一般，铁合金震荡运行 市场分析 硅锰方面：昨日市场整体震荡运行，期货盘面波动加大。现货方面，主流钢招暂未最终定价。整体来看，受到行 业利润影响，硅锰产量继续下降，整体处于历年低位水平，铁水产量高位回落，硅锰需求 ...