投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 22 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 预期现实博弈，钢矿震荡运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.59%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 螺纹供应偏低但利好有限，相反需求表现偏弱，弱势基本面并无实质性 改善，库存去化压力偏大，钢价继续承压运行，相对利好的是成本支 撑，后续走势延续震荡寻底态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡企稳，录得 0.81%日涨幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，热卷供应压力偏大，而需求韧性趋弱，基本面表现不佳，相对利好 则是成本支撑，弱现实与成本支撑博弈下热卷价格延续弱势寻底态势， 关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.65%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，铁矿石供应高位，而产业担忧未退，矿石需求走弱，矿市基本面持 续转弱，高估值矿价承压运行，但因刚需尚处高位，下行存有阻力，预 计走势维持震荡运行态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z001 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. With support from the consumption peak season, the short - term supply - demand pattern is favorable, and inventory is continuously decreasing. However, if mines resume production and consumption weakens, the market may decline. For trading, short - term interval operations are recommended, and if the market rebounds significantly, selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 21, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 was 75,920 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 75,980 yuan/ton, a - 0.26% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 197,979 lots, and the open interest was 310,199 lots, an increase from the previous trading day's 293,283 lots. The current basis was - 1,580 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 2,9892 lots, a decrease of 813 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,600 - 74,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,250 - 72,450 yuan/ton, also an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 865 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton [1]. - Downstream material factories maintained a high operating rate, and demand supported spot transactions. New production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and the total lithium carbonate production in October was expected to increase. In terms of demand, both the power and energy - storage markets were booming. Overall, supply was tight and inventory was decreasing in October [1]. - As of the end of September 2025, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (guns) in China reached 18.063 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.5%. Among them, public charging facilities were 4.476 million, a year - on - year increase of 40%, with a total rated power of 19.9 billion kilowatts and an average power of about 44.36 kilowatts; private charging facilities were 13.587 million, a year - on - year increase of 60%, and the declared power capacity for private charging facilities was 12 billion kilovolt - amperes [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term interval operations are recommended. If the market rebounds significantly, selling hedging at high prices can be considered [3]. - **Cross - period**: No relevant strategy is provided. - **Cross - variety**: No relevant strategy is provided. - **Spot - futures**: No relevant strategy is provided. - **Options**: No relevant strategy is provided.

Macroeconomic and Financial Analysis - Market concerns about trade tensions have eased, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and the softening of the US President's trade stance, along with the introduction of multiple industry stability - growth plans, has boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term upward macro - drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2]. - For assets: The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the commodity sector, the black metal market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; the non - ferrous metal market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish; the energy and chemical market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be bullish [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as coal and gas, airport shipping, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market has risen. The acceleration of domestic economic growth, the softening of the US President's trade stance, and the introduction of multiple industry stability - growth plans have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term upward macro - drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. It is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Monday. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 970.32 yuan/gram, down 1.63%; the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 11742 yuan/kilogram, down 3.99%. Spot gold broke through the record high of last Friday, driven by the expectation of further US interest rate cuts and continuous hedging demand. It is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is advisable for short - term bulls to continue holding or reducing positions on rallies, and to buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [3]. Black Metals Steel - On Monday, the domestic steel market continued to be weak, and market trading volume remained low. The overall economic downward pressure is still large, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The real demand for steel is still weak, but it improved slightly last week. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 18.46 tons week - on - week, and apparent consumption increased by 139 tons. Supply is likely to decline further as steel mill profits narrow. There is no trending market in the steel market, with upward movement restricted by the supply - demand pattern and downward movement supported by costs. In the short term, the upward and downward space is limited [4]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore both weakened. The molten iron output has been declining for three consecutive weeks but remains at a high level of 240 tons. The logic of compressed steel mill profits continues, and molten iron output is expected to decline further. Steel mill raw material replenishment has temporarily ended. Global iron ore shipments increased by 126 tons this week, while arrivals decreased by 526.4 tons week - on - week. Port inventory increased by 253.77 tons last week. It is advisable to take a bearish view on iron ore prices in the later stage [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Monday, the spot and futures prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebounded slightly. The output of five major steel products has declined for two consecutive weeks, reducing the demand for ferroalloys. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. Manganese ore prices continue to be weak. The national capacity utilization rate of silicon manganese increased slightly, and daily output increased. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production area is 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5800 - 6100 yuan/ton. The price of 75B silicon iron tendered by Hebei Steel in October decreased compared with the previous round. The silicon iron and silicon manganese futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. Soda Ash - On Monday, the main contract of soda ash was weak. Supply is in the capacity - release period, with plans for capacity release in the fourth quarter, maintaining a loose supply pattern. Although the anti - involution policy is clear, there is no clear industry document yet, and the price is dragged down by supply - side contradictions in the medium - to - long - term. It is advisable to take a bearish view in the medium - to - long - term [7]. Glass - On Monday, the main contract of glass fluctuated weakly. Glass production increased slightly, and the number of production lines remained stable. As the "Golden September and Silver October" period ends, downstream procurement has slowed down. Although there is some policy support, overall demand is difficult to increase significantly. It is advisable to conduct short - term range operations [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - The US dollar declined last week due to dovish remarks from Powell, increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the alleviation of fiscal risk concerns in Japan and France. The suspension of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine has exacerbated the global copper shortage, supporting futures prices. However, the suspension is temporary, and production will resume in the middle of next year. Next year is a year of high copper supply, with an expected output growth rate of 5% (optimistic estimate) or 3% (neutral estimate), and the growth rate will fall below 2% after 2027. There is also a risk of the Panama copper mine restarting. Domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected, and social inventory is at a relatively high level. Domestic electrolytic copper production remains high, and demand is facing challenges. US copper inventory is high, restricting future import demand. Copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [8]. Aluminum - On Monday, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The outer market is stronger than the inner market, resulting in a low internal - external price difference, which supports the inner market. Domestic aluminum fundamentals are not good, with slow de - stocking of social inventory and high aluminum rod inventory. London aluminum inventory has decreased recently, and overseas demand is not good. If institutions continue to withdraw aluminum from LME warehouses, it will support aluminum prices. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [9]. Tin - On the supply side, Indonesia has transferred six previously seized tin smelters to a state - owned enterprise, which plans to increase refined tin output. However, the crackdown on illegal tin mining and the adjustment of the mining approval cycle have exacerbated the global tin shortage in the short term. After the maintenance of large - scale smelters in Yunnan ended, the smelting start - up rate returned to over 50%. On the demand side, the start - up rate of tin solder remains low, and the improvement in downstream and terminal orders is limited. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand, and photovoltaic demand has declined. Tin prices are at a historical high, which suppresses physical demand. Weekly inventory decreased by 769 tons to 7017 tons. Tin prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [10]. Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose 0.05%. The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, with strong demand in the peak season and continuous de - stocking of social inventory. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the downward space is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure range [11]. Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.88%. Weekly production reached a new high, but there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the north. The 2511 contract faces the pressure of digesting warehouse receipts. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large manufacturers [11]. Polysilicon - On Monday, the main contract of polysilicon fell 3.66%. The number of warehouse receipts is increasing, and there will be concentrated cancellations in November, bringing selling pressure. The current situation of high supply and low demand continues. Attention should be paid to the implementation of storage purchase news and the support of spot prices [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Against the background of the easing of Sino - US tensions, oil prices declined slightly. The long - expected supply surplus is gradually emerging, and the tanker carrying capacity has reached a recent high. Oil prices will continue to test the lower support in the near future [14]. Asphalt - As oil prices continue to test the lower support, asphalt also has the risk of breaking through the support level. The basis remains low, and the actual shipping volume is low. The pressure of factory inventory accumulation continues, and social inventory is being depleted in the East China region. Profits have recovered slightly, and production has increased significantly, leading to an increase in supply pressure. In the later stage, oil prices will be affected by OPEC+ production increases, and asphalt may face challenges due to increased inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the support of crude oil costs [14]. PX - Due to the continuous decline of crude oil prices and weak polyester demand, PX prices have followed the downward trend. Although the high start - up rate of PTA provides some demand support, PX is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in October due to the overall decline of the polyester sector [14]. PTA - Driven by the decline of crude oil prices, the overall energy and chemical sector has declined. Downstream start - up rates are low, orders are scarce, and terminal start - up rates are below the historical average. PTA processing fees have declined, and port and factory inventories are accumulating. The basis has decreased, and short - term trading should focus on short - selling on rallies [15]. Ethylene Glycol - After breaking through the previous low, the port inventory of ethylene glycol has rebounded. With the expectation of new production capacity coming on - stream, ethylene glycol prices will remain low. Downstream start - up rates are weak, and both overseas and domestic demand are sluggish. In October, inventory will continue to accumulate, and prices will remain low. If oil prices continue to decline, there is still a risk of further decline [15]. Short - Fiber - Short - fiber has adjusted following the polyester sector and is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the near future. Terminal orders have increased seasonally but with limited amplitude. The increase in short - fiber start - up rates has led to limited inventory accumulation. Further inventory depletion depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders. In the medium - term, short - selling on rallies may be considered [15]. Methanol - This week, methanol supply has decreased in the short term, and olefin demand remains high, leading to a slight reduction in inventory and an improvement in the short - term supply - demand structure. However, traditional downstream demand is weak, and there are plans for many plants to restart, increasing supply pressure. High inventory and external factors such as tariff upgrades restrict price increases. Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. PP - The supply growth rate of the PP market continues to be higher than demand, and inventory levels are high, putting pressure on the market. The decline of crude oil prices has weakened cost support, expanding the downward price space. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand [17]. LLDPE - This week, the supply of polyethylene has increased, and inventory has accumulated significantly, suppressing prices. Demand is divided, with the start - up rate and orders of agricultural film improving, but the overall downstream start - up rate is still slow to increase. The decline of crude oil prices has weakened cost support, and the polyethylene market will be under pressure in the short term [17]. Urea - The daily output of urea is between 18.1 - 19.1 tons. Industrial procurement is stable, and agricultural demand is recovering after rainfall. Exports are shrinking after the window period closes. The market is cautious, and purchases are mainly made at low prices. The short - term market may be stable after a period of stalemate, but there is still a risk of decline in the later stage [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The release of USDA reports has been postponed, and concerns about Sino - US soybean trade continue, making the export prospects of US soybeans unclear. However, domestic crushing consumption provides some support. The new - season harvest situation of US soybeans is unknown. The sowing of Brazilian soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the weather conditions in the core production areas of Argentina are good. The CBOT soybean market is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of Sino - US soybean trade [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Domestic downstream phased replenishment has increased, and soybean meal inventory has decreased significantly. As of October 17, 2025, soybean inventory in major oil mills increased slightly week - on - week and significantly year - on - year, while soybean meal inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. Apparent consumption of soybean meal increased significantly. Currently, oil mill profits are generally in the red, increasing their willingness to support spot prices. Although the expected arrival of soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, there may be a supply gap before the new - season South American soybeans are available in the first quarter of next year. After the short - term over - decline, soybean meal prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate. Rapeseed meal supply is tight due to low factory start - up rates, and the market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with inventory decreasing slightly [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - Soybean oil has entered the peak season, but trading volume has not changed significantly. The inverted price difference between domestic and foreign soybean and palm oil provides some consumption expectations. The basis of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang has increased. For rapeseed oil, before the supply of Australian rapeseed and direct imports of Russian oil increases, the de - stocking market supports the stability of the spot basis. As of October 17, 2025, soybean oil commercial inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year, while rapeseed oil inventory decreased [20]. Palm Oil - A large amount of palm oil arrived in China last week, and the arrival is concentrated recently, leading to an increase in commercial inventory. Malaysian palm oil exports have increased at a slower rate. As of October 17, 2025, domestic palm oil commercial inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year [20][21]. Corn - The bumper harvest of corn in the Northeast and North China has come onto the market. The harvest weather is not conducive to storage, and farmers are eager to sell due to profitable prices, causing a significant seasonal impact on the market. Currently, corn trading at the grassroots level and ports is light, and the willingness of channels and downstream feed mills to build long - term inventories is still weak. However, the current price is close to the planting cost, and high - quality corn is in short supply. As the temperature drops, farmers may be more reluctant to sell, which will slow down the price decline [21]. Pigs - After the festival, the process of reducing production and inventory has accelerated, and pig prices have fallen to a new low this year, resulting in widespread losses in breeding profits. Recently, the price difference between fat and lean pigs and some regional restocking have supported the market, increasing the reluctance of small - scale farmers to sell and pressuring the market. Large - scale farms plan to increase the pace of slaughter, but supply is expected to decrease in late October, which will stabilize the extreme downward risk of pig prices. The far - month futures are slightly at a premium. Unless there is a significant increase in demand beyond the seasonal norm, it is difficult for pig prices to recover significantly. Attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather on pig farming in North China this year [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for different energy and chemical products, the mid - term outlooks are provided, including "weak and volatile", "volatile", and "weak - trending with volatility". 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coal price increases support the coal - chemical industry, while China's port fees on US - related vessels negatively impact US crude oil physicals. The contrast between strong coal and weak oil prices makes the hedging between coal - chemical and oil - chemical industries potentially valuable again [2][3]. - For coal - chemical products, PVC, methanol, and urea are considered for long - positions, with PVC potentially being more stable in terms of cost. For oil - chemical products, olefins are short - positions, and the new styrene production device may face challenges due to high inventory [3]. - Overall, the energy and chemical market still takes crude oil as a reference and is expected to continue its weak - trending with volatility [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Macro - factors affect the rhythm, and the fundamentals are continuously under pressure. The EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have accumulated, and refinery operating rates have declined. The global supply is in an increasing period, and there is pressure for accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [10]. - **Asphalt**: The decline has slowed, and the asphalt futures price is expected to be volatile. The geopolitical premium of crude oil has declined, and the supply of asphalt has increased, with high inventory pressure. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued [12]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price has entered a volatile mode. The reduction of geopolitical factors and the increase in supply have affected the price, and it is expected to be volatile [12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil price and is volatile. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [14]. - **Methanol**: Slightly boosted by coal, it is in a wide - range volatile state. There is still value in going long at a low level, but the upside space is limited [25][26]. - **Urea**: The spot price is firm, but the futures price is under pressure. The supply - demand pattern is still supply - strong and demand - weak, and it is expected to be volatile [26][27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Supported by coal prices, it rebounds at a low level, but the supply - demand pattern is still under pressure. The inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [20][22]. - **PX**: The futures price stops falling and rebounds, but the increase is limited, and the profit is repaired month - on - month. It is expected to fluctuate with costs and macro - sentiment [15]. - **PTA**: New devices are about to be put into production, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is expected to follow the cost and be weak and volatile [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream speculative stocking promotes inventory reduction. The supply - demand is relatively healthy in the short term, and the processing fee is stable. It can consider long - short hedging operations [22]. - **Bottle Chip**: The improvement of the processing fee stimulates the moderate increase of production. The absolute price follows the upstream cost, and the profit has support at the bottom [23][24]. - **Propylene (PL)**: Affected by weak oil prices and macro - factors, it is weak and volatile [31]. - **PP**: Affected by weak oil prices, it continues to decline. The high inventory suppresses the price, and it is expected to be weak and volatile [30]. - **Plastic**: There is slight support near the previous low, and it is weak and volatile. The fundamental support is limited, and the upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory [29]. - **Styrene**: Affected by commodity sentiment and device news, it shows a "V" - shaped trend. The high inventory is the main pressure, and it is expected to try to widen the profit [19][20]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak expectations, it is volatile. The fundamentals are under pressure, and the cost is moving down, and it is expected to be weak [32]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is volatile. The short - term supply - demand has improved, but the upward driving force is insufficient [32][33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., and their changes [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, its changes, and the number of warehouse receipts for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [35]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different products such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., and their changes are presented [37].

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday, manganese silicon prices have shown a low-level fluctuation trend, with both futures and spot prices weakening [1] Supply Dynamics - The manganese silicon market is gradually returning to its fundamental industrial logic, with a September average daily production of 29,946.8 tons, an increase of 18.82% year-on-year [2] - Despite high supply pressure leading to a downward price trend, production remains relatively high, with an operating rate of 43.19% and an average daily output of 29,175 tons as of October 10 [2] - Production in major regions remains robust, particularly in Inner Mongolia with an average daily output of 14,280 tons, only slightly down from previous highs [2] - The Ningxia region shows the most significant reduction in production, with a recent average daily output of 6,015 tons, down 1,175 tons from its peak [2] Demand Conditions - Steel mills maintain stable production levels, with a high furnace operating rate of 84.27% and capacity utilization rate of 90.55%, both showing year-on-year increases [3] - Steel production remains relatively unchanged, with a weekly output of 8.6331 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 3.76 thousand tons [3] - The profitability of steel mills is deteriorating, with only 56.28% of sampled mills reporting profits, a decline over nine consecutive weeks [3] Cost Support - Manganese silicon production costs in northern and southern regions are reported at 5,836 yuan/ton and 6,276 yuan/ton, respectively, showing only minor declines from previous highs [4] - The main factors influencing manganese silicon costs, such as electricity and manganese ore prices, are trending weaker, but the stability of electricity prices and recent declines in manganese ore prices provide some cost support [4] - Overall, while supply contraction is limited and demand remains weak, there is some cost support, leading to expectations of continued low-level fluctuations in manganese silicon prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] Core Views - Cotton: The new - year global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose, with increased short - term supply pressure and demand - side pressure. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, but the purchase price has stabilized, limiting the downward space of cotton prices [2] - Sugar: Brazilian sugar supply is strong in the short term, suppressing the raw sugar futures price. In China, the typhoon has affected sugarcane production, adding uncertainty to the new - season sugar output, and the macro - sentiment may increase market volatility [5][6] - Pulp: The global pulp supply is under pressure, and the domestic supply pattern is still loose. The weak demand, especially in China, is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,265 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton (- 0.26%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,598 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [1] - Market Info: Pakistan's cotton harvest is accelerating, with an expected total output of 930,000 - 1,008,000 tons, and the new cottonseed price is falling [1] Market Analysis - Macro: The Sino - US trade war has escalated, and the US federal government shutdown has affected data release. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose [2] - Domestic: Cotton de - stocking is fast, but the ginneries' purchase is cautious. The new cotton purchase price has stabilized, limiting the downward space [2] Strategy - Neutral to bearish. The escalation of the Sino - US trade war and the new - year production increase expectation suppress the cotton price, and the demand support is insufficient [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5397 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan/ton (- 1.33%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5780 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [4] - Market Info: Brazil exported 1.8014 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of October, a 9.45% increase from last year [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The sugar production in Brazil increased significantly in the first half of September, suppressing the raw sugar price, but there is support from the ethanol price [5] - Zheng sugar: The domestic peak - season sales are poor, and the supply is sufficient in the short term. The typhoon has affected sugarcane production in some areas [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. The typhoon - affected sugarcane production adds uncertainty to the new - season sugar output, but the macro - sentiment may increase market volatility [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 4846 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+ 0.08%) from the previous day [7] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4955 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [7] - Market Info: The import wood pulp spot price was mostly stable, with some increases [7] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual transactions were poor in September. The domestic port inventory is high, and the supply pattern is still loose [8] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. The downstream paper mills' procurement is cautious [8] Strategy - Neutral. The macro - situation is bearish, and the pulp fundamentals are not improving. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [9]

Report Summary 1. Market Analysis - On October 13, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 was 72,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 72,280 yuan/ton, a -1.12% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 282,178 lots, and the open interest was 207,463 lots, compared to 221,919 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was 900 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 36,718 lots, a change of -5,951 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 72,300 - 73,900 yuan/ton, a change of -450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,250 - 71,450 yuan/ton, also a change of -450 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 818 US dollars/ton, a change of -10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The psychological expectation price of downstream material factories continued to decrease, and the overall market transaction activity was average [1]. - In terms of supply, new production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene end and the salt lake end, and it was expected that the total output of lithium carbonate in October still had growth potential. In terms of demand, the new - energy vehicle market for both commercial and passenger use in the power market grew rapidly, and the energy - storage market had strong supply and demand. Overall, although the supply increased steadily in October, a stage of tight supply was formed [1]. 2. Company News - BYD announced its production and sales report for September 2025. In September 2025, the total installed capacity of BYD's new - energy vehicle power batteries and energy - storage batteries was approximately 23.2 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 17.17% and a month - on - month increase of 0.11%. The cumulative installed capacity in 2025 was approximately 203.251 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 59.14% [2]. 3. Strategy - The futures market was weak on the day, but there was some support during the consumption peak season. The short - term supply - demand pattern was good, inventory continued to decline, and the market had some support. It was expected that the market would fluctuate in the short term. The policy disturbance at the mine end had weakened to some extent. If the mines resumed production and consumption weakened later, the market might decline. Recently, the market was greatly affected by macro - sentiment. If there was a large rebound, short - selling hedging could be carried out at high prices [3]. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, short - selling hedging can be carried out at high prices [3]. - Inter - period: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, a large positive and a large negative line in the Shanghai Nickel market basically digested some macro - impacts during the National Day. Spot trading was acceptable. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel - iron price was weakly stable, and the stainless - steel inventory increased during the National Day. The new energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the loading of ternary batteries still declined, having limited impact on nickel demand. In the short - term, sentiment risks increased, and in the medium - to - long - term, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged [8]. - The Shanghai Nickel main contract is expected to oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800. If there is macro - stimulation, the upper and lower limits may expand. Short - selling on rallies can be considered. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: After the holiday, market fluctuations digested macro - impacts. The nickel ore price was firm due to the approaching Philippine rainy season and limited earthquake impact on mining. The nickel - iron price was weakly stable with enterprises in loss. Stainless - steel inventory increased during the National Day. New energy vehicle data was good, but ternary battery loading declined, limiting nickel demand. Short - term sentiment risks increased, and the medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remained [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract will oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800, and may expand the range with macro - stimulation. Short - selling on rallies is recommended. The stainless - steel main contract will oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: Red soil nickel ore prices remained stable. Battery - grade and electro - plating grade nickel sulfate prices increased slightly. Low - nickel and high - nickel iron prices were mostly stable. Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased slightly. The 304 stainless - steel price decreased slightly [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: The nickel ore price was stable, and sea freight was flat. As of October 9, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports was 15.0093 million wet tons, an increase of 6.1%. In August 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.3467 million tons, a significant increase. The Philippines was entering the rainy season, and mines had firm quotes. Earthquakes in the Philippines had limited impact on mining. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: Nickel prices oscillated with acceptable trading volume. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation would increase, but the oversupply pattern remained. The substitution of ternary in the new energy industry chain was obvious, and nickel demand growth slowed. In September 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,795 tons, with an increase in October expected. Battery - grade and electro - plating grade nickel sulfate prices increased [22][26][36]. - **Nickel - Iron Market**: Nickel - iron prices were mainly stable. In September 2025, China's nickel - iron production decreased. In August 2025, the nickel - iron import volume increased significantly. The nickel - iron inventory in August was 218,900 physical tons [43][46][49]. - **Stainless - Steel Market**: The 304 stainless - steel price decreased slightly. In September 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4267 million tons. The latest stainless - steel import was 117,100 tons, and the export was 447,900 tons. As of October 10, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0536 million tons, an increase of 77,700 tons [57][63][69]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: In August 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with significant year - on - year growth. From January to August, production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million respectively. In August, the total output of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, and the power - battery sales volume was 98.9 GWh. The power - battery loading volume was 62.5 GWh, with the ternary battery loading volume decreasing [73][76]. 3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, after the holiday, there was a large positive and a large negative line. There was some capital inflow, and short - selling positions increased. The MACD had no clear direction, and the KDJ was at the 50 mid - value. Technically, the range - oscillation pattern remained unchanged [79]. 4. Industry Chain Combing Summary - **Fundamental Impact on Nickel Price**: Nickel ore, nickel - iron, and stainless - steel had a neutral impact on nickel prices. Refined nickel had a neutral - to - bearish impact, and the new energy sector had a neutral impact [82]. - **Trading Strategies**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract will oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800, and may reach 125,800 with macro - stimulation. Short - selling on rallies is recommended. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [84][85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Propylene: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PVC: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (Green star, indicating a predicted downward trend) [1] Report's Core View - The chemical industry as a whole is facing various challenges, including weak demand, high inventory, and pressure on supply. Most product prices are under downward pressure, and the market sentiment is generally bearish. However, there are also some differences among different sub - industries, and specific product trends need to be analyzed based on their own fundamentals [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures prices are weak, with limited upward momentum for spot prices due to subdued demand and general market trading [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures prices continue to decline, with increased supply pressure from higher production and inventory accumulation [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are in a low - level shock, and styrene prices are under pressure due to weak cost support, sufficient supply, and lackluster demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are falling due to oil price decline. Near - term supply - demand is okay, but long - term pressure exists [4] - Ethylene glycol has a weak fundamental situation with high domestic production and large port inventory accumulation [4] - Short fiber has some support from seasonal demand, while bottle chip demand is expected to weaken [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures stop falling, but near - term weakness persists due to high imports and inventory [5] - Urea prices hit new lows, with high supply, large inventory, and limited export support [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices are likely to be weak due to high supply, increased inventory, and low demand [6] - Caustic soda supply remains high, with downstream resistance to high prices. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices are weak, with long - term oversupply. It is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities [7] - Glass has seasonal inventory accumulation, but low - valuation limits the decline. Low - buying near cost can be considered [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [8] Core Views - The steel market continues to face weak realities, with steel prices oscillating. The terminal demand for building materials remains weak, and high inventories have not been alleviated. The fundamentals of finished products have not changed, and the high iron - water cost provides support. Attention should be paid to the impact of upcoming meetings on the market and subsequent changes in supply - demand patterns [1]. - The iron ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with prices fluctuating within a range. Macro - level strong policy expectations intermittently boost commodity prices, and the current overall valuation of iron ore is relatively high. Under the current situation of both supply and demand being strong, the price is expected to remain range - bound [3]. - The coking coal and coke market shows a cautious sentiment, with prices fluctuating. After the holiday, coking coal supply is gradually recovering, and the market remains in a loose pattern. Coke supply has slightly decreased due to weather - related logistics disruptions, and market demand has not improved significantly [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is in the off - season, with downstream daily consumption declining and coal prices showing a weak trend. In the short - term, prices will fluctuate, and in the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. Summaries by Related Content Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 3096 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3286 yuan/ton. Rebar production was 203.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.62 million tons, and total inventory was 659.64 million tons, an increase of 57.39 million tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 323.29 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 million tons, and total inventory was 329.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29.92 million tons. The national building materials trading volume was 11.99 million tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For building materials, the traditional peak season is more than half over, terminal demand is still weak, and high inventories have not been alleviated. For plates, after the holiday, prices are relatively stable, and consumption shows resilience. In the short - term, the fundamentals of finished products remain unchanged, and high iron - water costs provide support [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a downward bias for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price rose slightly. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports increased. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. This period's hot - metal production decreased by 0.27 million tons week - on - week. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 98.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 397.46%. The total transaction volume of forward - looking spot iron ore was 145.5 million tons (11 transactions), a week - on - week decrease of 40% (with the mine's transaction volume being 128.5 million tons) [3]. - **Logic and View**: Macro - level strong policy expectations intermittently boost commodity prices. Currently, the overall valuation of iron ore is relatively high, supply is relatively loose at high prices, and there is strong consumption resilience under high hot - metal production. The overall inventory is at a medium level. In the short - term, with both supply and demand being strong, the price will remain range - bound [3]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke showed an oscillating trend. As of the close, the coking coal 2601 contract rose 1.57%, and the coke 2601 contract rose 0.52%. For imported coal, customs clearance has resumed, traders' enthusiasm for quoting is average, prices fluctuate with the market, and the trading atmosphere is cold [5]. - **Logic and View**: For coking coal, after the holiday, supply is gradually recovering, and the market remains loose. In the short - term, demand is mainly for inventory consumption, and downstream enterprises' purchasing sentiment is cautious. For coke, affected by northern weather, logistics and transportation are blocked, supply has slightly decreased, and downstream steel mills' profits have declined, with purchases mainly for rigid demand, and market demand has not improved significantly [6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the origin, the prices of thermal coal in major production areas fluctuated slightly. It is the off - season, the number of coal - pulling trucks at stations and some mines has significantly decreased, and terminal procurement is strongly pressing down prices. In the port market, the sentiment is average, downstream buyers are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the transaction price center has slightly declined. For imported coal, prices are stable, trading activity has slightly decreased, and market participants have different views on the future market, with overall trading being cold [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: It is the off - season for thermal coal, downstream daily consumption has declined, and port inventories have accumulated. In the short - term, prices will fluctuate, and in the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8]