Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inflation expectation and tariff implementation may be the key observation signals for the Fed. The Fed emphasizes the risks of rising unemployment and inflation (stagflation risk), and the logic of inflation, economy, and tariffs has become more direct and clear. Whether it is one - time inflation or persistent inflation depends on the scale of tariff impact, the time for tariffs to be fully transmitted to prices, and the stability of long - term inflation expectations. The Fed reiterates waiting for clear guidance before considering adjusting monetary policy [3][13]. - For the future market, the expectation of interest rate hikes can be anchored to the "long - term interest rate expectation maintained at 2%". For the expectation of interest rate cuts, in addition to focusing on the Fed's key economic indicators, the only clear factor is the "clear and light implementation" of tariff policies. If the tariff negotiation process is slow, the expectation of interest rate cuts for the whole year should be lowered, or there may be only 2 interest rate cuts throughout the year [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Monetary Policy Remains at the Level of the March Meeting - On May 7th, the third FOMC meeting of this year ended. The federal funds rate remained in the 4.25 - 4.50% range, and other monetary policies remained unchanged compared with the March meeting. The pace of balance sheet reduction slowed down as before, with the monthly natural maturity of Treasury bonds adjusted from $25 billion in March to $5 billion [2][8]. 1.2 Inflation Expectation and Tariff Implementation May be the Key Observation Signals for the Fed - "Tariff" is an important keyword in this meeting. For the future market, the expectation of interest rate hikes can be anchored to the "long - term interest rate expectation maintained at 2%", and for the expectation of interest rate cuts, in addition to focusing on key economic indicators, the only clear factor is the "clear and light implementation" of tariff policies. As of now, only the UK has initially reached a negotiation with the US, and specific details need to be finalized in the next few weeks. If the tariff negotiation process is slow, the expectation of interest rate cuts for the whole year should be lowered, or there may be only 2 interest rate cuts throughout the year [3][10]. 1.3 Comparison of the May Press Conference and the March Statement - **Stagflation Risk**: Emphasize the risks of rising unemployment and inflation (stagflation risk) [13][14]. - **Logic of Inflation, Economy, and Tariffs**: The logic has become more direct and clear. The Q1 GDP decline reflects the fluctuation of net exports, which is likely due to large - scale imports by companies before potential tariffs. Private domestic final purchases (PDFP) maintained the previous quarter's level, with a slowdown in consumer spending growth and a recovery in equipment and intangible asset investment. The sentiment in household and business surveys has declined sharply, and the uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased, strongly reflecting concerns about trade policies. The attribution of inflation to tariffs has become more "direct" [12][13][16]. - **Inflation Impact**: Whether it is one - time inflation or persistent inflation depends on the scale of tariff impact, the time for tariffs to be fully transmitted to prices, and the stability of long - term inflation expectations. If the announced large - scale tariff increase policy is continuously implemented, it is likely to lead to rising inflation, slow economic growth, and increased unemployment [13][22]. - **Long - term Interest Rate Expectation**: Most long - term inflation expectation indicators are still consistent with the 2% inflation target [23]. - **Price Stability**: Price stability is emphasized as the cornerstone of a strong labor market [24]. - **Monetary Policy Adjustment**: Reiterate waiting for clear guidance before considering adjusting monetary policy [13][27].

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月9日 研究所晨会观点精萃 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号： F0256916 投资咨询证号: Z0000671 电话: 021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号: F03092124 投资咨询证号: Z0018827 电话: 021-80128600-8631 刘慧峰 从业资格证号: F3033924 投资咨询证号: Z0013026 电话: 021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号: F03091165 投资咨询证号: Z0019876 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号: F03089928 投资咨询证号: Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱: wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号: Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 宏观金融：美英达成有限贸易协 ...

国际航运巨头发出警告。 当地时间5月8日，作为全球贸易的晴雨表，国际航运巨头马士基在披露财报的同时，对特朗普政府的关税冲击 发出警告。马士基表示，由于客户对关税形势采取观望态度，4月中美集装箱市场的运量双向下降了30%— 40%。 与此同时，美国劳工统计局最新公布的数据也拉响了警报。其中显示，美国第一季度劳动生产率折合成年率下 降0.8%，这是近三年来首次下降；非农单位劳动力成本初值上升5.7%，为一年来最大增幅。 另外，根据高盛的最新预测，美国核心通胀"即将起飞"，直到2026年6月才会停止加速。今年圣诞节前美国通 胀率或将达到4%，其中商品价格通胀率或将飙升至6%—8%。 暴跌超3 0% 当地时间5月8日，马士基公布了最新财报，其中显示，今年一季度，公司实现营收133亿美元，增长7.8%；息 税前利润从去年同期的1.77亿美元升至12.53亿美元。 马士基警告称，今年剩余时间内的全球集装箱需求前景仍高度不确定，这受到贸易政策的快速变化，以及美国 日益增长的衰退风险影响。 鉴于宏观经济和地缘政治不确定性加剧，马士基将2025年全球集装箱市场的增长预期下调至-1%至4%，此前的 预期为增长4%。 马士基同时预 ...

在券商人士看来，美国强劲的就业数据与疲弱的消费者信心等相互矛盾的经济信号使美联储决策者的工 作变得尤为棘手，美国经济存在滞胀风险或是令美联储连续按兵不动的重要原因。美联储5月利率决议 公布后，已有机构将美联储重启降息的时间预期从6月推迟至7月，观望等待成为美联储当前的政策主基 调。 ● 本报记者周璐璐 美联储连续第三次决定维持利率不变 北京时间5月8日凌晨，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这是自今年1月和3月会议以来，美联储连续第三次决定维持利率不变。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在声明中说，近几个月来美国失业率稳定在较低水平，劳 动力市场状况依然稳固，但通货膨胀仍"一定程度上处于高位"。美联储认为，经济前景的不确定性"进 一步增加"。此外，美联储还表示，"失业率上升和通胀加剧的风险有所增加"，这是此前声明中没有的 内容，体现出美联储对最新经济形势的担忧。 在美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会上，"关税"一词被提及超过20次。鲍威尔在被问及关税的实际影响时 表示，委员会注意到消费者情绪方面的变化，人们对关税带来的冲击感到担忧，担心价 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Ukraine is considering abandoning the US dollar as its reference currency and is looking to tie its currency, the hryvnia, more closely to the euro due to increasing ties with Europe and global trade fragmentation [1][3][4] - The Ukrainian central bank governor, Andriy Pyshnyi, indicated that the potential for EU membership and the strengthening role of the EU in Ukraine's defense are influencing this decision [3][4] - Since Trump's return to the White House, the dollar index has dropped over 9%, raising concerns about the future status of the dollar as a global reserve currency [1][4] Group 2 - The article highlights that the dollar has historically dominated international trade and constitutes a significant portion of global foreign exchange reserves, but the share of euro transactions is gradually increasing [4] - Ukraine's hryvnia was pegged to the dollar at an official rate of 29 hryvnias per dollar after the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but the central bank has shifted to a managed floating exchange rate system as of October 2023 [4] - The potential economic recovery in Ukraine is projected to be between 3.7% and 3.9% over the next two years, contingent on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the May 2025 meeting, the Fed unanimously agreed to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5%. The meeting statement emphasized an increase in stagflation risks, and Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance, believing the current economic activity is robust and the cost of waiting is low [3]. - The changes in the meeting statement are mainly in two aspects: an increase in the uncertainty of the economic outlook and a rise in the risks of both high unemployment and high inflation [3]. - Powell's wait - and - see stance is due to the Fed having cut interest rates by 100BP, with the current interest rate being only moderately restrictive, and the economy remaining in good condition [3]. - Future prospects are highly uncertain. Inflation pressure may appear earlier than the upward pressure on unemployment. In the short term, inflation pressure may appear in June or July, constraining the Fed's probability of easing, and the probability of a rate cut in June is low [3]. - In terms of strategies, for US Treasuries, the better - than - expected April non - farm payroll data led to a callback in market rate - cut expectations, and the US Treasury yield curve flattened bearishly. There is a good opportunity to enter the short - end US Treasuries, and a bullish view is maintained on the long - end in the short term. For the US dollar index, it is expected to oscillate overall this year, and short - term negotiation progress and medium - term tax - cut bill implementation in the US may support its performance [3]. Summary by Related Content Fed Meeting - The Fed kept the policy rate at 4.25 - 4.5% in the May 2025 meeting, and the meeting statement emphasized stagflation risks [3]. - The statement changes included increased economic outlook uncertainty and rising risks of high unemployment and high inflation [3]. Powell's Stance - Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance, believing there's no need to act in a hurry as the current monetary policy is only moderately restrictive and the economy is in good shape [3][4]. - He thought the cost of waiting is low, with the labor market stable, unemployment low, and no large - scale layoffs [3][4]. - He also mentioned that the relationship between expected survey data and consumer spending is weak [3][4]. Future Outlook - Inflation pressure may appear earlier than unemployment pressure. Considering corporate inventories, inflation pressure may appear in June or July, and the probability of a June rate cut is low [3]. Investment Strategies - For US Treasuries, there's a good entry opportunity for short - end bonds, and a bullish view is held on long - end bonds in the short term. If policy uncertainty decreases, it may improve long - end liquidity and term premium [3]. - The US dollar index is expected to oscillate this year, and short - term negotiation progress and medium - term tax - cut bill implementation may support it [3].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third consecutive "pause" since the beginning of the current rate cut cycle in September 2024, with a total reduction of 100 basis points across three meetings [2][3] - Concerns regarding "stagflation" risks have intensified, with the Fed emphasizing increased uncertainty in economic outlook and rising risks of high unemployment and inflation [3][4] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Fed's ability to provide clear guidance on interest rate paths is hampered by ongoing policy uncertainty, making it challenging to restart the rate cut cycle in the short term [4] - The Fed's stance on tariffs has shifted, acknowledging that announced tariff increases have exceeded expectations and could lead to rising inflation, slower economic growth, and higher unemployment if sustained [4] - The Fed's view on inflation has evolved, moving away from the notion of "transitory" impacts of tariffs, recognizing that the effects could be either "one-time shifts" or "persistent," depending on the scale and duration of tariffs [4] Investment Recommendations - Gold is expected to perform well amid potential "hard landing" scenarios in the U.S. economy, driven by factors such as a renewed Fed rate cut cycle, dollar depreciation, and increased central bank gold purchases [5] - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is anticipated to benefit from the Fed's rate cut cycle, with opportunities for excess returns in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5] - U.S. equities are facing a trend of adjustment rather than temporary fluctuations, with increasing economic downturn risks affecting profit growth expectations [5] - U.S. Treasury bonds may present a trend-based allocation opportunity only after inflation recedes, with potential for rapid interest rate increases due to repayment risks in the interim [5]

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月8日 贾利军 从业资格证号： F0256916 投资咨询证号: Z0000671 电话: 021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号: F03092124 投资咨询证号: Z0018827 电话: 021-80128600-8631 刘慧峰 从业资格证号: F3033924 投资咨询证号: Z0013026 电话: 021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号: F03091165 投资咨询证号: Z0019876 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号: F03089928 投资咨询证号: Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号: Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 宏观金融: 央行超预期降准和降息，美联储维持利率不变 【宏观】 海外方面，美联储按兵不动维持利率不变，以及 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Global central banks' expectations of interest rate cuts and fiscal easing, along with continuous gold purchases by multiple central banks and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, may make precious metal prices prone to rising and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: On May 7, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures active - contract closing price was 803.50, with a trading volume of 413,639.00 and an open interest of 127,407.00. The Shanghai spot gold (Au T + D) closing price was 792.87 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 65,320.00 and an open interest of 212,772.00. The COMEX gold futures active - contract closing price was 3372.60 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 275,912.00 and an open interest of - 2,384.00. The London gold spot price was 3392.25 dollars/ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF holding was 937.67 tons, and the iShare Gold ETF holding was 437.55 tons [1]. - **Silver**: The Shanghai silver futures active - contract closing price was 8252.00, with a trading volume of 537,686.00 and an open interest of 232,016.00. The Shanghai spot silver (Ag T + D) closing price was 8.00 yuan/kilogram, with a trading volume of 442,110.00 and an open interest of 3,542,778.00. The COMEX silver futures active - contract closing price was 33.22 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 53,799.00 and an open interest of 109,710.00. The London silver spot price was 33.23 dollars/ounce. The US iShare Silver ETF holding was 13,958.73 tons, and the Canadian PSLV Silver ETF holding was 5807.39 tons [1]. - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 97.37, the ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 100.18, and the ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 103.19 [1]. 2. Important Information - **Macroeconomic and Policy**: The Fed paused interest rate cuts again, warning of stagflation risks and reiterating increased "uncertainty". Powell said not to rush to cut interest rates. China's foreign exchange reserves in April increased by 1.27% month - on - month, and the central bank has been increasing gold holdings for six consecutive months. The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, and the CBO predicted that the Treasury's funds might be exhausted between August and October, which would slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The Trump administration planned to cut the 2026 fiscal budget by 183 billion dollars. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, and may cut interest rates 2 - 3 more times by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025. The market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates around July [1]. - **Geopolitical**: If the EU's negotiation with the US fails, it is prepared to impose retaliatory tariffs on Boeing aircraft [1]. 3. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3150 - 3250 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 750 - 780 and the resistance level is around 850 - 900. For London silver, the support level is around 28 - 30 and the resistance level is around 35 - 36; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 7400 - 7800/8000 and the resistance level is around 8600 - 8900 [1].

11:02 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust .Il 5G EBC黄金ETF持分报告解读 截至5月7日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为937.67吨，较前一个交易日减少0.29吨。5月7日，现货黄金大跌，盘中最低触及3360美元/盎司， 收报3364.14美元/盎司，大跌66.21美元或1.93%。值得注意的是，ETF持仓量连续第四个交易日减少。 基本面消息，据报道，中美将举行经贸高层会谈，贸易的乐观情绪，打压黄金的避险需求。5月7日，中国央行宣布降准降息，货币宽松的政策，推动了风险 资产，抑制了金价走势。 当前总持仓 937.67 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间:2025-05-( 960 950 940 930 920 910 900 890 2025-03-27 2025-04-10 2025-04-30 2025-03-11 此外，美联储最新决议出炉，连续三次暂停降息，符合市场预期，并暗示特朗普的关税政策将引发滞胀风险，重申经济不确定性增加。在会后的记者会上， 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，不急于行动，不认为应该先发制人降息应对关税冲击。美 ...