1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures oscillated and declined yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. The processing margin remains at a low level. It is expected that the PTA spot price will mainly oscillate following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the changes in the equipment [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol oscillated and declined, and the spot basis continued to decline. In the long - term, there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol. In the near - term, it has improved due to a reduction in some supplies. The short - term price center of ethylene glycol is expected to operate weakly, and there is continuous upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the outflow speed of warehouse receipts in northern Jiangsu [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review No content provided in the given text. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Futures oscillated down, spot negotiation general, basis slightly stronger, some polyester factories made bids, and a major supplier sold goods. Transaction prices and basis for different months were given [5]. - Basis: Spot price was 4605, 01 - contract basis was - 65, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 3.97 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net short position, changing from long to short [5]. - Expectation: Short - term price to follow cost side, basis to fluctuate, focus on equipment changes [5]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: Price center oscillated down, basis declined, night - session opened slightly higher and then weakened, and some traders actively bought far - month futures [7]. - Basis: Spot price was 3955, 01 - contract basis was 48, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The inventory in East China was 62.2 tons, an increase of 5.7 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions decreasing [7]. - Expectation: Long - term inventory pressure exists, short - term price to operate weakly, focus on supply changes and warehouse receipt outflow [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No content provided in the given text. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from January 2024 to December 2025 were presented, including PTA capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory. For example, in November 2025, PTA capacity was 9472, production was 638, and the ending inventory was 296 [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from January 2024 to December 2025 were provided, covering EG production, import, total supply, polyester consumption, and port inventory. For instance, in November 2025, EG production was 58, total supply was 244, and port inventory change was 12 [12]. - **Price and Margin Data**: On November 18, 2025, compared with November 17, the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, and MEG changed, and the margins of PTA processing, MEG production, and polyester products also changed. For example, the PTA processing fee decreased from 439.48 yuan/ton to 31.70 yuan/ton [13].

2025 年 11 月 19 日 LPG：供需预期收紧，短期相对抗跌 丙烯：现货走势偏强，盘面底部震荡 商 品 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2512 | 4,351 | -1.34% | 4,395 | 1.01% | | 期货价格 | PG2601 | 4,290 | -0.72% | 4,314 | 0.56% | | | PL2601 | 5,826 | -1.09% | 5,839 | 0.22% | | | PL2602 | 5,816 | -1.67% | 5,832 | 0.28% | | | PL2603 | 5,816 | -1.64% | 5,827 | 0.19% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2512 | 76,398 | -698 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - PX: Sideways volatile market, do not chase high prices [2] - PTA: Sideways volatile market, do not chase high prices [2] - MEG: Supply pressure remains, trend is weak [2] 2. Core Views - PX: Overseas gasoline is in short supply, inventories are at low levels, and the strong cracking spread may last until the end of November, driving PX valuation. However, downstream marginal demand is weakening, and supply is at a high level, so the upside space may be limited. Do not chase high prices and maintain reverse arbitrage operations for the monthly spread [9]. - PTA: The upside space may be limited, do not chase high prices. Domestic e - commerce orders for weaving have decreased, new orders are weakening, and the operating rate has dropped. Polyester load has decreased in the short - term but is expected to recover. PTA load has been adjusted, and there are plans for future maintenance and restarts. It is recommended to maintain 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage operations [10]. - MEG: The medium - term trend is weak. Short positions can be established on rallies, and reverse arbitrage operations for the monthly spread should be maintained. Supply is expected to return, imports are relatively high, inventories are increasing, and there is a supply - demand surplus in December, so there is insufficient driving force for a unilateral rise [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: The price of naphtha rebounded at the end of the session. PX prices fell today, with no transactions in the 1 - 2 month negotiations. Platts - assessed Asian PX prices declined, and the PX - naphtha spread narrowed. South Korea's PX exports increased in October, with China being the largest buyer [5][7]. - **MEG**: A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Inner Mongolia is expected to restart soon. There are also maintenance and restart plans for other ethylene glycol plants in Jiangsu and Sichuan. The planned arrival volume at major ports from November 17th to 23rd is about 111,000 tons [7][8]. - **Polyester**: The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber are average, with an average production - sales ratio of 45%. The production - sales ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is weak, with an average of 30% - 40% [8]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 - PTA trend intensity: 0 - MEG trend intensity: 0 The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [9]. Price and Spread Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6768 | 4670 | 3907 | 6188 | 458.8 | | Change | - 28 | - 22 | - 31 | - 42 | - 0.4 | | Change Rate | - 0.41% | - 0.47% | - 0.79% | - 0.67% | - 0.09% | | Monthly Spread | PX1 - 5 | PTA1 - 5 | MEG1 - 5 | PF12 - 1 | SC11 - 12 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | - 8 | - 56 | - 90 | - 42 | 1.4 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | - 24 | - 64 | - 85 | - 46 | 0.7 | | Change | 16 | 8 | - 5 | 4 | 0.7 | | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | Yesterday's Price | 827 | 4605 | 3955 | 568.5 | 63.55 | | Previous Day's Price | 831 | 4619 | 3975 | 571.25 | 63.66 | | Change | - 4 | - 14 | - 20 | - 2.75 | - 0.12 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 254.67 | 189.82 | 193.78 | 45.72 | - 4.34 | | Previous Day's Price | 256.67 | 147.41 | 206.69 | 74.51 | - 4.34 | | Change | - 2 | 42.41 | - 12.91 | - 28.8 | 0 | [4]

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - Spot gold prices showed strong performance, breaking key levels of $4070 and $4080 per ounce, with daily increases of 0.04%, 0.65%, and nearly 1% respectively [1] - New York futures gold also rose, surpassing $4070 and $4080 per ounce, with daily increases of 0.08% and 0.13% [1] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - The crude oil market exhibited an upward trend, with WTI crude oil prices rising above $60 per barrel [2] - U.S. API crude oil inventories increased by 4.448 million barrels for the week ending November 14, exceeding expectations compared to a previous increase of 1.3 million barrels [2] - The Argentine government announced the cancellation of export taxes on conventional oil, which may impact the international crude oil supply landscape [2] Group 3: Financial Futures - Hang Seng Index futures performed positively in the night session, closing up 0.48% at 26039.10 points, with a premium of 109.07 points [3] - The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced it will begin releasing trader position reports this week, with the first report expected on Wednesday afternoon, which the market will closely monitor for changes in positions [3] Group 4: Agricultural Futures - In agricultural futures, soybean meal's main contract fell by 1% to 3026.00 yuan per ton [4] - Soda ash's main contract also weakened, declining by 2% to 1195.00 yuan per ton [5] Group 5: Macro and Market Impact - Federal Reserve official Barkin expressed agreement with Powell's view that a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion, indicating that economic growth will depend entirely on productivity if labor force numbers do not increase, which may suppress market sentiment [6] - The U.S. signed an economic and defense partnership framework with Saudi Arabia, covering cooperation in civil nuclear energy, capital market technology, artificial intelligence, and critical minerals, with Saudi Arabia also set to purchase nearly 300 tanks, potentially influencing the commodity market indirectly [6] - U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow down 1.07%, Nasdaq down 1.21%, and S&P down 0.82%, while the European Stoxx 600 index fell 2% to a one-month low, indicating that global market volatility may affect risk appetite in commodity futures [6]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.04%, closing at 30.9897 points [1] - CBOT corn futures rose by 0.11%, reaching $4.4850 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures increased by 0.13%, closing at $5.59 per bushel [1] Group 2 - CBOT soybean futures fell by 0.63%, ending at $11.5050 per bushel, after reaching a daily high of $11.6950 [1] - Soybean meal futures declined by 1.38% [1] - Soybean oil futures increased by 1.92% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current core driver of lithium carbonate lies in the demand expectation, with strong demand in power batteries and energy storage batteries. The market is in an upward trend, but attention should be paid to the demand performance in the off - season next year and the resumption rhythm of the Jiaxiaowo lithium mine [1]. - The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the market is likely to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream "anti - involution" and winter disturbance factors [8]. - The polysilicon market has weak supply and demand and lacks driving forces. The main focus is on the establishment of the state - reserve platform and relevant announcements from polysilicon enterprises. The market is in a wide - range volatile pattern [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell. The main 2601 contract decreased by 1.76% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 93,520 yuan/ton. The opening continued the previous day's rise, but then the high - rising sentiment declined, the trading volume decreased significantly, and the long - position funds left the market [1]. - **Demand Analysis**: In the power battery sector, due to the phase - out of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy in 2026, there is a rush to install power cells at the end of this year. It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will increase to about 60% in November - December. In the energy storage battery sector, the market generally expects the installed capacity growth rate to exceed 40% in 2026 [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of lithium carbonate futures decreased significantly. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with reduced positions, and the long - position controlled the market. The 5 - minute cycle is expected to have a wide - range volatile operation, and the 2 - hour cycle is still relatively strong. The long - short dividing water level is 86,220 yuan/ton [2][3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly. The main 2601 contract decreased by 1.10% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,980 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply output decreased slightly, with continuous production cuts in the southwest region and mixed changes in the northwest region. The demand may further weaken, and the industry inventory is relatively high, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of industrial silicon futures decreased. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with increased positions in the morning and then rebounded with reduced positions, indicating short - position control. The 5 - minute cycle is in a volatile operation, and the 2 - hour cycle is relatively weak. The long - short dividing water level is 9,225 yuan/ton [8]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The polysilicon futures continued the volatile trend. The main 2601 contract decreased by 0.85% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 52,210 yuan/ton [10]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In November, the production schedule of polysilicon decreased significantly, with an expected output of 116,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.36%. As of November 14, the factory inventory was 265,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,900 tons, and the supply pressure still exists [10][13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of polysilicon futures increased slightly. The main 2601 contract decreased in price with reduced positions, and the long - position controlled the market. The 5 - minute cycle is in a weak operation, and the 2 - hour cycle is approaching the red ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 51,865 yuan/ton. The large - cycle shows a wide - range volatile pattern [13].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures (LC2601.GFE) closed at 93,520 yuan/ton, down 1,680 yuan/ton (-1.76%) from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. - The spot price of lithium carbonate was 87,420 yuan/ton, up 1.45% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. - The current basis was -7,180 points, a negative basis (spot discount), weakening by 690 points from the previous day, and the basis has been weakening overall in the past 10 trading days. - The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate were 26,611 lots, down 342 lots (-1.27%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have been decreasing overall in the past 10 trading days. - Social inventory has dropped to a low level. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures**: The main contract closing price was 93,520 yuan/ton, down 1,680 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 6,980 yuan/ton from the previous week; the main contract settlement price was 94,600 yuan/ton, up 1,940 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 7,840 yuan/ton from the previous week. - **Lithium Ore**: The prices of lithium spodumene from different origins (Australia, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Mali) showed varying degrees of increase compared to the previous day and week; the prices of lithium mica with different Li2O contents in the Chinese market also increased. - **Lithium Compounds**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric-grade lithium carbonate was 87,420 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 5,060 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide showed an upward trend, while some market prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of some ternary materials and precursors remained stable, while the price of some products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate increased. [6] 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: Charts showed the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: Charts presented the price changes of manganese - acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures Other Related Data**: Charts showed the changes in trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures. [7][10][16]

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 18, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, while the glass market is likely to continue its downward trend in the medium term if there is no new market expectation stimulus [8][9] Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On November 17, the main soda ash futures SA601 contract oscillated with a slight upward trend. The closing price was 1,231 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.16%, with a daily reduction of 19,289 lots [7] - Fundamentally, enterprise production and sales are approaching balance, and inventory reduction is not obvious. Weekly soda ash production decreased 1.01% to 73.93 tons, still at a high level. The soda ash device is running stably, and individual overhauls have little overall impact. In the demand side, the shipment of Chinese soda ash enterprises from mid - to early November increased 1.57% to 74.62 tons. The production of float glass decreased 1.08% to 111.39 tons. The alkali plant inventory slightly decreased to 170.73 tons, in the middle range of the past six months [8] - In the short - term, the disk price is affected by the increase in light soda ash price and the expected equipment overhaul in late November, and is expected to maintain an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern of oversupply may continue [8] Glass - Fundamentally, the daily melting volume of float glass remains high, and the supply is supported. The photovoltaic glass is in a weak balance, and the overall glass supply is at a high level for the year. After the holiday, the factory inventory remains high. The real estate market has not shown a stabilizing trend, and the demand for float glass may not continue to rise [9] - Recently, the disk price has been oscillating weakly. In the medium - term, if there is no new market expectation, the downward trend of the disk is difficult to change [9] 2. Data Overview - The report provides data on the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda ash market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][14][17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the context of weak cost support and a continuously loose supply - demand situation, the overall price of polyolefins is expected to remain under pressure. Although the relatively low absolute price may stimulate periodic replenishment demand, providing weak support to the market, the price is likely to oscillate within the bottom range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Performance**: The opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interest changes of plastic and PP futures contracts (such as plastic 2601, plastic 2605, etc.) are presented. For example, plastic 2601 closed at 6843 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.25%), and PP2601 closed at 6467 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan (-0.35%) [3][4]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In October, the Guangxi Petrochemical plant was successfully put into production. There are no new production plans in November. Some maintenance plants will restart, and the weekly output has increased as expected. In November, the demand is expected to weaken, and downstream buyers have returned to purchasing based on rigid demand after restocking at low prices, which cannot effectively drive up prices [4]. - **Cost Factor**: EIA has raised the inventory accumulation forecast for the fourth quarter. Although OPEC+ has suspended production increases in the first quarter of next year, it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation, and the cost support for plastics and chemicals is weak [4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On November 17, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 720,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons (12.50%) from the previous working day, compared with 700,000 tons in the same period last year [5]. - **Market Prices**: PE market prices showed partial fluctuations. The prices of LLDPE in North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 6800 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6930 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 5760 - 5800 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The mainstream prices of PP in North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 6230 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6340 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively [5][6]. 3.3 Data Overview The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, but specific data values are not provided in the text [9][12][13].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,680.00 | -112.00↓ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,474.00 | -92.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 666,646.00 | +71176.00↑ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 398,527.00 | +34144.00↑ | | | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -21,898.00 | +31288.00↑ 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -18,552.00 | +17276.00↑ | | | SM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 66.00 | -2.00↓ SF5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 10.00 | -40.00↓ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 19,863.00 | 0.00 SF 仓单（日，张） | 8,443.00 | 0.00 | | | 内蒙古锰硅 FeMn68Si18 （日，元/吨 ...