2025年05月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡调整 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 3 | | 铜：内外库存下降，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：关注矿端影响 | 7 | | 锌：上方承压 | 9 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：矿价再度大幅下挫，弱势运行或延续 | 15 | | 工业硅：上游逐步复产，供需过剩 | 17 | | 多晶硅：基本面弱势，盘面存下行驱动 | 17 | | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：原料继续下跌，偏弱震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：原料继续下跌，偏弱震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：成本或存下移，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：现货价格支撑，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：铁水下行，震荡偏弱 | 24 | | 焦煤：铁水下行，震荡偏弱 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年5月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为3615元/吨，枯水期成本支撑有所上升。 2、基差: 05月19日，华东不通氧现货价8850元/吨，09合约基差为650元/吨，现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 社会库存为59.9万吨，环比增加0.50%,样本企业库存为247600吨，环比减少6.53%,主要 港口库存为13.2万吨，环比减少0.75%。 偏空。 4、盘面: MA20向下，09合约期价收于MA20下方。 偏空。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净空，空减。 偏空。 6、预期: 供给端排产有所减少，处于历史平均水平附近，需求复苏处于低位，成本支撑有所上升。 工业硅2509：在8025-8235区间 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 5 月 20 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（5 月 19 日） A 股三大指数震荡整理，截止收盘，沪指平盘报收，收报 3367.58 点；深 证成指跌 0.08%，收报 10171.09 点；创业板指跌 0.33%，收报 2032.76 点。沪深两市成交额 10865 亿，较上一个 交易日微幅缩量 31 亿。 【郑糖】因预计巴西中南部甘蔗收割进度将回升美糖上周五震荡下跌。因短线跌幅较大与现货报价平稳等因 素支持郑糖 2509 月合约周一震荡整理。夜盘，郑糖 2509 月合约波动不大窄幅震荡小幅收高。咨询公司 Datagro 总裁兼首席分析师 Plinio Nastari 表示，尽管 2025/26 榨季初期收获缓慢，但甘蔗生长条件有利，预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖供应过剩 153 万吨；预计印度和泰国的产量将增加，也将有助于提高全球食糖供应。Datagro 预计 巴西中南部地区 2025/26 榨季食糖产量为 4204 万吨，高于上一榨季的 4017 万吨；印度的食糖产量将从 2600 万 吨增加到 3160 万吨；泰国的食糖产量将从 1 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the supply and demand are both decreasing, and the inventory accumulation situation persists. The long - term supply pattern is in surplus, and the demand is difficult to increase. The supply at the low level in the market is maintained for a short time, and the futures price lacks the power to rise continuously. The supply - demand contradiction will become prominent again, and the price will enter the downward channel again, with the futures market likely to show a weak and fluctuating trend [8]. - For glass, the overall profit in the float glass production field has increased slightly, and the production volume remains relatively stable. The demand market is relatively dull, and the downstream inventory has accumulated. The futures price is approaching the production cost line, and the cost support may appear in the short - term. The short - term market has an expectation of rush - exporting, which brings some support to the market, but the supply - demand game is still the key factor for the subsequent trend [9][10]. Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data on May 19th**: The main soda ash futures contract SA509 opened low and went lower, with a closing price of 1,284 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton, and a decline of 1.91%, and an increase of 116,309 lots in positions. The FG509 glass futures contract closed at 1,018 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.19%, and a decrease of 54,017 lots in positions [7]. - **Soda Ash Situation**: The weekly output of soda ash in China dropped to 677,700 tons in the week of May 15th, a month - on - month decrease of 8.52%, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 80.27%. The enterprise inventory of heavy soda ash was 880,000 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. The market supply is in a long - term surplus pattern, and the demand is difficult to increase, so the price will likely decline [8]. - **Glass Situation**: The overall profit in the float glass production field has increased slightly, and the production volume remains stable. The demand market is dull, and the downstream inventory has accumulated. The futures price is approaching the cost line, and the cost support may appear in the short - term. The short - term market has an expectation of rush - exporting, which brings some support to the market [9][10]. 2. Industry News - **Real Estate**: In April, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities was flat month - on - month, down 2.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month. The sales price of second - hand residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, down 3.2% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous month [11]. - **Manufacturing Loans**: From January to April, the Export - Import Bank of China invested more than 180 billion yuan in medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and the balance of medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry at the end of April was 1.8 trillion yuan [11]. - **Sodium Bicarbonate Market**: The sodium bicarbonate market in Henan is running weakly, and the downstream makes rigid demand purchases. The mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade sodium bicarbonate is estimated to be between 1,180 - 1,260 yuan/ton [11]. - **Float Glass Market**: The prices of the domestic float glass market are mainly stable, with some fluctuations. The prices in North China have fluctuated, the prices in East China have decreased in some areas, the prices of colored glass in Central China have increased in some factories, the prices in South China are stable, the prices in Northeast China have decreased, and the prices in Southwest China have fluctuated [11]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, the weekly output and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the production volume of flat glass, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [17][18][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical situation remains unclear and tariff negotiations by the US cause oil price fluctuations. PX supply in Asia tightens due to unplanned losses and scheduled maintenance, while demand exceeds expectations, leading to an expected inventory drawdown in the coming months. PTA prices are expected to follow cost trends with short - term strength as polyester maintains high开工率 and helps with PTA inventory reduction. Polyester bottle - chip market has limited trading volume with prices fluctuating. It is predicted that PX, PTA, and PR will all move in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On May 19, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.69/barrel (+0.32%), Brent crude oil was $65.54/barrel (+0.20%), naphtha spot price was $569.38/ton (+0.71%), isomeric xylene was $709.00/ton (-0.77%), and PX CFR China Main Port was $841.00/ton (+0.44%) [1] - **PTA**: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4776 yuan/ton (+0.04%), settlement price was 4800 yuan/ton (0.00%), near - month contract closing price was 4970 yuan/ton (+0.49%), settlement price was 4966 yuan/ton (-0.08%), domestic PTA spot price was 4992 yuan/ton (-0.64%) [1] - **PX**: CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6752 yuan/ton (+0.12%), settlement price was 6788 yuan/ton (+0.24%), near - month contract closing price was 7020 yuan/ton (+0.26%), settlement price was 7020 yuan/ton (+0.26%), domestic PX spot price was 6874 yuan/ton (-2.04%) [1] - **PR**: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 6088 yuan/ton (+0.10%), settlement price was 6124 yuan/ton (+0.13%), near - month contract closing price was 5808 yuan/ton (+0.14%), settlement price was 5808 yuan/ton (+0.14%), East China polyester bottle - chip market price was 6100 yuan/ton (-0.16%), South China was 6200 yuan/ton (0.00%) [1] - **Downstream**: CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6665 yuan/ton (+0.23%), polyester chip was 6030 yuan/ton (-0.33%), bottle - grade chip was 6100 yuan/ton (-0.16%) [2] Operating Conditions - PX开工率 was 75.86% (+2.54 percentage points), PTA factory load rate was 74.41% (0.00 percentage points), polyester factory load rate was 91.12% (-0.02 percentage points), bottle - chip factory load rate was 85.13% (0.00 percentage points), and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 68.10% (0.00 percentage points) on May 19, 2025 [1] Production and Sales - Polyester filament sales rate was 28.00% (0.00 percentage points), polyester staple fiber sales rate was 46.00% (+10.00 percentage points), and polyester chip sales rate was 39.00% (+2.00 percentage points) on May 19, 2025 [1] Device Information - A 1.2 million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Trading Strategy - TA2509 contract closed at 4776 yuan/ton (-0.50%) with a trading volume of 1.33 million hands; 2509 contract of PX closed at 6752 yuan/ton (-0.30%) with a trading volume of 30,950 hands; PR 2507 contract closed at 6088 yuan/ton (-0.46%) with a trading volume of 59,000 hands. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will move in a volatile manner [2]

工业硅：上游逐步复产，供需过剩 多晶硅：基本面弱势，盘面存下行驱动 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 2025 年 05 月 20 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2507收盘价（元/吨） | 8,130 | -15 | -190 | -1,180 | | | | Si2507成交量（手） | 209,508 | -45,246 | -39,557 | 63,477 | | | | Si2507持仓量（手） | 155,038 | 16,616 | -16,587 | 7,809 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2506收盘价（元/吨） | 37,150 | 300 | -1,300 | - | | | | PS2506成交量（手） | 72,986 | -72 ...

4. 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年5月1-15日马来西亚棕榈油产量增加 8.50%。 5. 巴西植物油行业协会（Abiove）周一在一份报告中称，巴西2024/25年度大豆产量预估为1.697亿吨， 此前预估为1.696亿吨。 金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月20日） 1. 2025年05月12日-05月18日澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2706.1万吨，环比增加283.6万吨；中国45港铁矿石 到港总量2271.3万吨，环比减少83.3万吨。 2. 据马来西亚棕榈油局网站周一发布的公告显示，马来西亚6月毛棕榈油参考价格为每吨3926.59林吉 特。此前，5月的参考价格为每吨4449.35林吉特。 3. 据了解，近期部分地区进口大豆通关时间缩短至8~15天，随着进口大豆集中到港入厂，预计本周油 厂大豆压榨量继续回升，至225万吨。 9. 据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至5月17日，2024/25年度巴西大豆收割率为 98.9%。 6. 美国农业部（USDA）周二凌晨公布的每周作物生长报告显示，截至5月18日当周，美国大豆种植率 为66%，高于市场预期的65%。 ...

Core Insights - The surge in registered aluminum warehouse receipts has led to a decline in aluminum futures prices, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [1] - China's primary aluminum production is on the rise, contributing to the changing dynamics in the aluminum market and raising questions about future price movements [1] Group 1 - Registered aluminum warehouse receipts have increased significantly, impacting market sentiment and pricing [1] - The decline in aluminum futures prices suggests a reaction to the increased supply and potential market adjustments [1] - China's rising primary aluminum production is a key factor influencing the current market landscape and future trends [1]

一周展望：市场多空因素交织，马棕油震荡区间即将决出方向？机构预测本周马棕油支撑位与阻力位 在..... 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-81916257 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 目 录 CONTENTS 02 氯碱价格 03 烧碱供应 04 氯碱需求 01 氯碱综述 中泰期货烧碱周报 2025年5月19日 --------中美贸易关税缓和 铝土矿因素扰动氧化铝、烧碱期货 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 产量 | 上周中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为82.6%，较上周环比-1.3%。西北、西南新增重启或降负，带动负荷不同程度下滑，华北检修及重启并存，负荷提升。其 | | | | 中山东产能利用率-1.8%至86.8%。本周华中、华东均有装置减产及检修，西北、华北、西南装置复产，因此综合来看，预计本周烧碱产能利用率降至82.9%左右，周产量80.53 | | ...