1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the PVC futures price fluctuated and rose this week. The V2509 contract closed at 4,947 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 2.96% from last week's close [9]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, some PVC production facilities were shut down for maintenance this week, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.64% to 77.70%. On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate increased by 0.46% to 46.45%, with the pipe start - up rate up 0.93% to 49.06% and the profile start - up rate remaining stable at 35.9%. As of May 15, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 3.23% to 630,000 tons, and the inventory pressure was not significant. The costs of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profits of the two methods were repaired to varying degrees [9]. - Looking ahead, next week, there will be both shutdown and restart of facilities, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly, with generally low supply pressure. Affected by macro - positive factors, the domestic downstream start - up rate has rebounded, but the weak real estate market still drags down demand growth. In terms of exports, the Indian market is affected by uncertainties such as BIS certification and anti - dumping duties and the rainy season, and the unresolved tariffs imposed by the US on Vietnam may affect China's PVC raw material exports. The calcium carbide price may fluctuate, and the ethylene price may fluctuate slightly within a range. The V2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support around 4,900 and resistance around 5,100 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: The PVC futures price fluctuated and rose due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. The V2509 contract closed at 4,947 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 2.96% from last week [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply side - some facilities were shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.64% to 77.70%. Demand side - the downstream start - up rate increased by 0.46% to 46.45%, with the pipe start - up rate up 0.93% to 49.06% and the profile start - up rate remaining stable at 35.9%. As of May 15, the social inventory decreased by 3.23% to 630,000 tons. The costs of calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profits were repaired [9]. - Outlook: Next week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to fluctuate slightly, with low supply pressure. The domestic downstream start - up rate has rebounded, but real estate drags down demand. Exports face challenges. Calcium carbide and ethylene prices may fluctuate. The V2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 4,900 and resistance at 5,100 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Futures price and warehouse receipts: The V2509 contract fluctuated and rose, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased week - on - week [10]. - Position and spread: The position of the main contract decreased week - on - week, and the 9 - 1 spread was slightly stronger [14]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Spot price - imports and exports: The CFR China quotation was 700 US dollars (+0), and the Southeast Asian quotation was 670 US dollars (+0) [20]. - Spot price - overseas: The Indian quotation was 700 US dollars (+0) [25]. - Spot price - domestic calcium carbide method and ethylene method: The prices of calcium carbide method and ethylene method in East China increased week - on - week [28]. - Basis: The basis fluctuated, and the futures market remained in a contango state [33]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Lanthanum coke and calcium carbide: The prices of lanthanum coke and calcium carbide remained stable this week. The lanthanum coke start - up rate was 54.13%, and the calcium carbide start - up rate was 64.38% [37][43]. - EDC and VCM: The VCM CIF intermediate price was 520 US dollars/ton, and the EDC international price was 162 US dollars/ton [47]. 3.3.2 Industry Chain - Supply - capacity and output: The PVC capacity growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 10.77%. The output in March was 2.0691 million tons, a month - on - month increase [51]. - Supply - capacity utilization and maintenance: The PVC capacity utilization rate decreased week - on - week [55]. - Demand - downstream start - up rate: The pipe start - up rate increased week - on - week, and the profile start - up rate remained stable [59]. - Demand - PVC floor exports: The PVC floor exports in March increased month - on - month [63]. - Imports and exports: Exports in March increased month - on - month, and imports increased month - on - month but remained at a low level [66]. - Inventory: The PVC social inventory decreased week - on - week [70]. - Cost: The calcium carbide method cost decreased slightly, and the ethylene method cost decreased week - on - week [74]. - Profit: The process profits of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method were repaired this week [80]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.90%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.89%, and that of put options was 19.93% [85].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 聚丙烯市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员：徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 价格：本周受中美关税下调叠加国际油价走强影响，PP期货价格大幅拉涨。周四、周五PP随国际油价走 弱回调，整体冲高回落收涨。截至2025年5月16日收盘，PP2509合约报收于7093元/吨，较上周收盘上涨 1.81%。 基本面：供应端，本周中煤榆林、茂名石化、惠州立拓等装置停车检修，PP产量环比-4.00%至74.86万吨， 产能利用率环比-3.19%至76.56%。需求端，本周下游开工止降回升，平均开工率环比+0.33%至49.83%。 本周PP商业库存在83.86万吨，环比-6.51%，压力不大。上游企业密集检修，供应压力减弱，生产企业库 存环比-8.04%；终端产品外贸环境改善，市场交投好转，中间商低位备货，贸易商库存环比+11.27%；出 口成交增量有限，港口库 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of hot-rolled coil futures rebounded but were blocked, influenced by the interplay of multiple factors, including macroeconomic policies, supply and demand dynamics, and cost fluctuations [3][11]. - The HC2510 contract is expected to undergo weak consolidation within the range of 3280 - 3160 yuan/ton, and investors should pay attention to operation rhythms and risk control [11]. 3. Summary by Directory **Weekly Highlights Summary** - **Market Review**: As of May 16th, the closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3226 yuan/ton (+69), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot-rolled coil was 3330 yuan/ton (+110). The weekly production of hot-rolled coils decreased to 311.98 (-8.4) million tons, while the apparent demand rebounded to 329.53 million tons (+20, -0.97 year-on-year). Both factory and social inventories declined, with the total inventory at 347.57 million tons (-17.55, -68.08 year-on-year). The steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a 0.44 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 7.36 percentage point increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, China and the United States mutually reduced tariffs, releasing positive signals. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils decreased, terminal demand recovered, inventory declined, and apparent demand increased. In terms of cost, iron ore prices were oscillating strongly, with decreased shipments and port inventories, and firm spot quotes. Coking coal remained weak, with the first round of price cuts implemented. Technically, the HC2510 contract's rebound was blocked, with the daily K-line suppressed below multiple moving averages, and the MACD indicators running below the 0-axis [11]. **Futures and Spot Market Conditions** - **Futures Prices**: This week, the HC2510 contract's rebound was blocked, and its performance was weaker than that of the HC2601 contract. On the 16th, the price difference was -12 yuan/ton, a -4 yuan/ton week-on-week change [17]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Positions**: On May 16th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's hot-rolled coil warehouse receipt volume was 271,818 tons, a -25,187 tons week-on-week change. The net long position of the top 20 in the hot-rolled coil futures contract was 54,604 lots, a decrease of 95,279 lots from the previous week [21]. - **Spot Prices**: On May 16th, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot-rolled coil in Shanghai was 3330 yuan/ton, a +110 yuan/ton week-on-week change, and the national average price was 3343 yuan/ton, a +37 yuan/ton week-on-week change. This week, the spot price of hot-rolled coils was stronger than the futures price, and on the 16th, the basis was 104 yuan/ton, a +21 yuan/ton week-on-week change [26]. **Upstream Market Conditions** - **Raw Material Prices**: On May 16th, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore at Qingdao Port was 816 yuan/dry ton, a +17 yuan/dry ton week-on-week change, and the spot price of first-grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1540 yuan/ton, a +0 yuan/ton week-on-week change [31]. - **Arrival Volumes**: From May 5th - 11th, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 25.7 million tons, a -644,000 tons week-on-week change [35]. - **Port Inventories**: This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 147.4699 million tons, a -177,200 tons week-on-week change. On May 15th, the steel billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 745,100 tons, a -79,800 tons week-on-week change and a +130,500 tons year-on-year change [39]. - **Coking Plant Conditions**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and coke inventories rose. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.23%, a 0.18 percentage point increase; the daily coke output was 536,300 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons; coke inventories were 654,600 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 7.5256 million tons, a -226,100 tons decrease; and the available coking coal days were 10.6 days, a -0.34 day decrease [43]. **Industry Conditions** - **Supply Side** - **Steel Exports**: In April 2025, China exported 10.462 million tons of steel, a 13.4% year-on-year increase; from January - April, China exported 37.891 million tons of steel, an 8.2% year-on-year increase. In April, China imported 522,000 tons of steel, a 20.7% year-on-year decrease; from January - April, China imported 2.072 million tons of steel, a 13.9% year-on-year decrease [46]. - **Blast Furnace Operating Rates**: On May 16th, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.15%, a -0.47 percentage point week-on-week change and a +2.65 percentage point year-on-year change; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.76%, a -0.33 percentage point week-on-week change and a +3.19 percentage point year-on-year change; the daily hot metal output was 2.4477 million tons, a -87,000 tons week-on-week change and a +78,800 tons year-on-year change [50]. - **Total Inventories**: On May 15th, the total inventory of hot-rolled coils was 347.57 million tons, a -17.55 million tons week-on-week change and a -68.08 million tons year-on-year change [54]. - **Demand Side**: In the first quarter of 2025, China's automobile production was 7.561 million vehicles, a 14.5% year-on-year increase; sales were 7.47 million vehicles, an 11.2% year-on-year increase. From January - March, the cumulative production of household air conditioners was 74.4576 million units, a 9.7% year-on-year increase; household refrigerators were 24.1455 million units, a 3.7% year-on-year increase; and household washing machines were 29.5643 million units, a 13.9% year-on-year increase [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices showing certain resilience and remaining relatively firm. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. - The market focus for soybeans is on Sino - US trade relations and North American planting season weather. The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to experience intensified fluctuations in the short term due to a mix of positive and negative factors [7]. - With an increase in soybean arrivals and high - level operation of oil mills, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and it is likely to operate weakly with a short - selling strategy recommended when prices are high [8]. - The supply of soybean oil is also expected to increase, and it is expected to operate weakly in the short term. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, the main 2507 contract rose by 0.36% to 4168 yuan/ton. The market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and prices are relatively firm. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [6]. - **Soybean No. 2**: The main 2509 contract fell by 0.28% to 3520 yuan/ton. The market is influenced by Sino - US trade relations and weather, and the CBOT soybean futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2509 contract remained flat at 2899 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and it is likely to operate weakly. A short - selling strategy is recommended when prices are high [8]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2509 contract fell by 0.33% to 7754 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and it is expected to operate weakly. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Soybean No. 1 rose, soybean meal remained flat, and soybean oil fell this week [13][19][25]. - **Spread Changes**: The 9 - 1 spreads of soybean meal and soybean oil both decreased [31][36]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipt Changes**: The net position of soybean No. 1 decreased, and its warehouse receipts increased; the net position of soybean meal increased, and its warehouse receipts increased; the net position of soybean oil decreased, and its warehouse receipts increased [43][47][55]. Spot Market - **Price and Basis Changes**: The spot price of domestic soybeans remained flat, and the basis decreased; the spot price of soybean meal fell, and the basis decreased; the spot price of soybean oil declined, and the basis decreased [62][68][72]. - **Imported Soybean Indicators**: The import premium of imported soybeans changed, and the arrival cost of imported soybeans increased [76][80]. 3. Industry Situation Weather - **North American Weather**: The drought situation in the US soybean - producing areas has deepened compared with last week and is worse than the same period last year [84]. - **US Soybean Weather**: In the 6 - 10 - day outlook, the temperature in the main US soybean - producing states is close to normal, and rainfall is lower than normal [88]. Upstream - **Supply - Side Information**: The expected production and inventory of US soybeans in the new year have been adjusted downward; the expected production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans remains unchanged, and their inventories have increased [90][95][100]. - **Sowing and Harvesting Progress**: The US soybean sowing progress is fast, and the Argentine soybean harvesting progress has recovered [107]. - **Export - Related Information**: The US soybean export inspection volume and sales volume have decreased, while Brazil's soybean export is expected to increase [113][119]. Domestic Industry - **Inventory and Operation of Oil Mills**: The soybean inventory of major oil mills, soybean meal inventory, and soybean oil inventory have all increased. The oil mill operating rate is expected to rise [123][127][131][135]. - **Soybean Import and Arrival**: In April, the import volume of soybeans increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume of soybeans in May is expected to increase [141][145]. - **Profit and Substitute Products**: The profit of domestic soybeans has decreased. The price of palm oil has risen, the price of rapeseed oil has fallen, the price of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the oil - meal ratio has declined [149][153][166][173]. - **Transaction Volume**: The spot transaction volume of soybean meal and the terminal transaction volume of soybean oil have both increased [181]. Downstream - **Livestock and Poultry Market**: The prices of live pigs and piglets have fallen, and the breeding profits of live pigs and poultry have declined [186][192]. - **Feed Market**: The monthly output of feed has decreased month - on - month, the inventory of breeding sows has increased, and the inventory of live pigs has increased month - on - month [197][202]. 4. Options Market - From the trend of soybean meal, it is recommended to buy at - the - money put options as it is expected to operate weakly [214]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc. [2][11] - It analyzes the fundamentals, market conditions, and influencing factors of each commodity, and gives corresponding trend strengths. [11][14] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a high - level oscillatory market due to falling oil prices. Suggest to go long on PX and short on PTA, and take long positions in the forward contract at low prices. [8][11] - **PTA**: Suggest to take long positions in the forward contract at low prices. Pay attention to the subsequent polyester inventory situation. [11] - **MEG**: Supply further contracts, and the price continues to be strong unilaterally. [11] Synthetic Rubber - The upward trend is slowing down, and it is expected to enter an oscillatory pattern. [12][14] Asphalt - Follows the crude oil to oscillate repeatedly. [15] LLDPE - In the short - term, it is relatively strong, but in the medium - term, it is under pressure due to factors such as new capacity, weak demand, and falling costs. [32] PP - The price rises slightly, but the trading volume is weak. [35][36] Caustic Soda - Supported by short - term downstream replenishment, the spot price rebounds, but there is still pressure in the later period. [40] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable, and the trading atmosphere is tepid. [45] Methanol - Runs in an oscillatory manner. [48][51] Urea - Oscillates with support, presenting a long - short game pattern. [56][57] Styrene - In the short - term, it oscillates strongly, mainly due to factors such as the release of downstream demand, low port inventory, and unexpected equipment maintenance. [58][59] Soda Ash - The spot market changes little and is expected to run stably in the short - term. [63] LPG - Short - term negative factors are realized, and attention should be paid to the lower support. [65][72] PVC - In the short - term, it oscillates, but there is still pressure in the later period due to high production and inventory. [75][76] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil continues to fall at night, and the short - term weakness continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil experiences a short - term pullback, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market narrows slightly. [80] Container Freight Index (European Line) - Oscillates strongly. Hold the 6 - 8 and 10 - 12 reverse spreads. [82][94] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both are in short - term oscillations. Hold the long PF and short PR positions. [95] Offset Printing Paper - Oscillates weakly due to factors such as a decline in the operating rate and an increase in inventory. [98][100]

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn is expected to decline in a volatile manner. The spot market sentiment is divided, with the expectation of strong spot and weak futures. A short - selling strategy can be maintained for futures [2]. - Soybean meal is expected to move sideways. It is recommended to hold a long position in the 9 - 1 spread and maintain a long - only strategy for single - side trading [2]. - Oils are expected to be weak. It is advised to exit short - term long positions [2]. - Eggs are expected to move sideways. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support egg prices in the short term, but the egg prices are likely to be weak later due to the Mei - yu season and increasing supply [2][3]. - Pigs are expected to move sideways. Pig prices will continue to consolidate at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: On Thursday, the July corn contract decreased with reduced positions. The domestic average corn price is 2365 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. Northeast prices are stable, North China prices are generally stable, and the prices in the sales areas are rising. Technically, the futures price is in high - level volatility, and a short - selling strategy can be maintained [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans tumbled from a 10 - month high, and soybean oil hit the daily limit down. The U.S. biodiesel policy may be less than expected. The domestic protein meal is strong. It is recommended to hold a long position in the 9 - 1 spread and maintain a long - only strategy for single - side trading [2]. - **Oils**: On Thursday, BMD palm oil, Canadian rapeseed, and CBOT soybean oil declined. The domestic oil futures prices are falling, and the basis is expected to continue to decline. It is advised to exit short - term long positions [2]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, the 2506 egg contract declined by 1.23%, and the 2509 contract rose by 0.13%. The spot price is slightly down. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support prices in the short term, but the prices are likely to be weak later [2][3]. - **Pigs**: On Thursday, the main pig contract closed with a medium - sized阴线, and the September contract continued to move sideways. The Henan market price is down slightly, and pig prices will continue to consolidate at a low level [3]. 3.2 Market Information - In April 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.53 million tons, up 4.2% month - on - month and 9.0% year - on - year. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 4.2 percentage points year - on - year, and the proportion of soybean meal decreased by 1.3 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 increased by 6.63% - 14.21% compared with the same period last month according to different institutions [4]. - On May 15, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index declined. The average pork price remained the same, and the egg price increased by 1.5% [5]. - The expected biodiesel mandatory blending volume may be 46 - 48 billion gallons, far lower than the previous expectation of 55 - 57.5 billion gallons [2][5]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents charts of 9 - 1 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [7][8][10][13]. - **Contract Basis**: The report presents charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [15][19][22][27].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 16 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 防守观望 | | | ◆国债： 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： 暂时观望 | | | ◆铁矿石： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆双焦： 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： 建议观望 | | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： 区间交易 | | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： 震荡 | | | ◆纯碱： 观望。 | | | 震荡 ◆烧碱： | | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： 震荡运行 | | | ◆甲醇： 震荡运行 | | | ◆塑料： 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡反弹 | | | ◆苹果： 震荡运行 | | | ◆PTA： 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆鸡蛋： 走势偏弱 | | | ◆玉米： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆豆粕： ...

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/8 | | 2025/5/14 | 2025/5/15 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 2025/5/8 | 2025/5/14 | 2025/5/15 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 沙河重碱 | 1330.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | SA05合 约 | 1295.0 | 1296.0 | 1285.0 | -10.0 | -11.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1300.0 | 1335.0 | 1310.0 | 10.0 | -25.0 | SA01合约 | 1328.0 | 1329.0 | 1308.0 | -20.0 | -21.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1570.0 | 1570.0 | 1570.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1323.0 | 1345.0 | 1330.0 | 7.0 | -15.0 | | ...

2025 年 05 月 16 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：继续反弹 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtjt.com 安 期 货 研 | 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | --- | | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | 1-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20185 | -90 | 675 | 380 | -150 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20220 | ー | ー | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2499 | -24 | 91 | 130 | -126 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 170538 | 9588 | -97025 | -52590 | 45709 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 200883 | 49079 | 8178 | 71211 | 38745 | | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 11628 | -6439 | -414 | -10173 | - ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短期偏空震荡 | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，未来十五天降雨恢复，按照 CPC 月度展 | | | | 望来看，5 月美国五大湖地区存在降雨不足的问题，但 6 月展望顺利。国内方面， | | | | 国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐步进入 | | | | 累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为缓和。 | | | | 5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利空豆粕， | | | | 但由于 10%的关税依然存在，美豆暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响有限，利 | | | | 空远月豆粕价格。美豆种植进入天气炒作阶段，市场做空谨慎，关注后续降雨情况。 | | | | 5 月美农报告偏利多。豆粕昨日小幅收涨，但短期空头格局依然占据主导，关注反 | | | | 弹后逢高做空机会。主力【2860，2930】 | | 菜粕 | 短期下跌 | 截止本周最新库存数据显示，油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比调增，但 5 月至 ...