Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Policy factors, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment all have significant impacts on prices. For example, the Fed's stance affects the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and the "anti -内卷" policy impacts the iron alloy market. In the short term, most sectors are expected to be volatile, and investors need to pay attention to policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and market sentiment [3][6][33] Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promotes the application of satellite - connected terminal devices; global hedge funds increase their bets on Chinese stocks in August; 14 wealth management companies see a net increase of about 1.8 trillion yuan in management scale in July; Zhongji Xuchuang expects mass production and shipment of 1.6T products and samples of liquid - cooled products [2] - **Futures Basis Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios. The trading logic is that although the market may fluctuate in the short term after continuous rises, the general direction is to go long on dips [3] Treasury Bond - **Market**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. The national industrial enterprise profit from January to July decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and the Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to promote service exports. The central bank conducted 4058 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1745 billion yuan [4] - **Strategy**: The economy shows resilience in the first half of the year, but July's social financing and credit data are weaker than expected. Exports may face pressure. With the central bank's support, funds are expected to be loose. Interest rates may decline, but the stock - bond seesaw effect needs attention, and the bond market may be volatile in the short term [6] Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver all rose. The New York Fed Chairman's neutral - dovish stance increases the probability of a Fed rate cut. The market expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and December. Historically, gold benefits from fiscal deficits, and silver is driven by Fed easing expectations. It is recommended to go long on silver at low prices [7][8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: LME copper and Shanghai copper prices decline. LME copper inventory increases, and domestic copper inventory shows different trends. The Fed's dovish stance increases the probability of a September rate cut, but the equity market's optimism fades. Copper prices are expected to be strong and volatile [10][11] Aluminum - **Market**: LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum prices decline. Domestic aluminum inventory is low, and demand is expected to improve as the off - season transitions to the peak season. The Fed's dovish signal strengthens the expectation of a September rate cut. Aluminum prices are expected to be supported in the short term [12] Zinc - **Market**: Shanghai zinc index rises slightly, and LME zinc falls. Zinc ore inventory rises, and refined zinc imports decrease. The Fed's dovish stance strengthens the support for zinc prices, and it is difficult for zinc prices to fall significantly in the short term [13] Lead - **Market**: Shanghai lead index falls, and LME lead falls. Lead ore inventory rises slightly, and downstream demand recovers. In the short term, lead prices are supported, but there is a risk of decline in the medium term [14][16] Nickel - **Market**: Shanghai nickel price rises slightly. Nickel ore supply is loose, and stainless steel demand is weak. Although the macro environment is positive, the supply - demand situation restricts nickel price increases. Nickel prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [17] Tin - **Market**: Shanghai tin price rises slightly. Myanmar's tin production recovery is slow, and domestic tin smelting enterprises' operating rates are low. Electronic and photovoltaic demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The spot index is flat, and the futures price falls. Lithium mica supply decreases, and the price has bottom support. The market awaits new drivers and needs to pay attention to overseas supply and industry news [19] Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index falls. Domestic and overseas ore supply disturbances support prices. The Fed's dovish stance drives the non - ferrous sector. The short - term decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [20] Stainless Steel - **Market**: The stainless steel futures price rises slightly. Social inventory increases, and short - term demand is weak. As the peak season approaches, demand is expected to improve [21] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The AD2511 contract rises. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and inventory increases. The cost is supportive, and market activity increases. However, the large futures - spot price difference may cause delivery pressure [22][23] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fall. The overall commodity market cools down. Steel production is high, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. If demand does not improve, prices may continue to fall [25][26] Iron Ore - **Market**: The iron ore futures price falls slightly. Overseas iron ore shipments are stable, and port inventory rises slightly. Steel mill profitability declines, and iron water production growth is limited. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [27][28] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price is stable, and inventory increases slightly. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, the price adjustment space is limited. In the short term, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and in the long term, it depends on policy and demand [29] - **Soda Ash**: The spot price is stable, and inventory decreases. The downstream glass industry's operating rate changes. Soda ash prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may rise gradually in the long term, but the upside is limited [30] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fall. The "anti -内卷" sentiment fades, and the market is affected by emotions. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize opportunities. Manganese silicon supply pressure remains, and ferrosilicon supply also rises [31][33][34] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The industrial silicon futures price rises slightly. The industry has over - capacity, high inventory, and weak demand. The price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to industry policies [35][36] Polysilicon - **Market**: The polysilicon futures price falls. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. Production increases, and inventory transfers to the futures market. The price may adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory pressure [37] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU are volatile. Bulls expect price increases due to seasonality and demand, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro expectations and weak demand. The medium - term view is bullish, and the short - term view is to be neutral - bullish [39][43] Crude Oil - **Market**: WTI and Brent crude oil futures rise, while INE crude oil futures fall. U.S. EIA data shows inventory changes. Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and the macro situation is bearish, the current oil price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [44] Methanol - **Market**: The methanol futures price falls. Coal prices rise, domestic and overseas supply increases, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to positive spread opportunities in the future [45] Urea - **Market**: The urea futures price is stable. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Exports are the main demand variable. The price is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to go long on dips [46] Styrene - **Market**: The styrene spot and futures prices fall. The BZN spread is low and has room for upward repair. Supply increases, and inventory accumulates. Demand is rising at the end of the off - season. The price may rebound when inventory decreases [47] PVC - **Market**: The PVC futures price falls. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The cost support is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [49] Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: The ethylene glycol futures price falls. Supply increases, and demand recovers from the off - season. The port inventory may accumulate in the medium term, and the valuation may decline [50] PTA - **Market**: The PTA futures price falls. Supply decreases due to unexpected maintenance, and demand improves. The processing fee is expected to repair, and it is recommended to go long on dips following PX [51] Para - Xylene - **Market**: The PX futures price falls. PX load is high, and downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance. PX inventory is expected to be low, and the valuation has support. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [52] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: The PE futures price falls. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance. Inventory is high but decreasing, and demand may improve in the peak season. The price may rise in the long term [53] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: The PP futures price falls. Supply increases, and demand is weak. Inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [55] Agricultural Products Live Pig - **Market**: Pig prices mostly fall. The short - term logic is to relieve pressure through weight reduction. Policy support may suppress bearish sentiment, and the far - month contract has a reverse spread strategy [57] Egg - **Market**: Egg prices mostly rise. Supply is stable, and demand is slow. The supply - demand negative cycle remains. It is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds [58] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: U.S. soybeans fall slightly, and domestic soybean meal is weak. U.S. soybean production may decrease, but global supply is abundant. The domestic soybean meal market has strong supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range [59][61] Edible Oils - **Market**: Domestic edible oils are volatile and weak. Malaysian palm oil exports increase, and production shows different trends. Domestic soybean oil inventory may increase, and rapeseed oil inventory may decrease. The price is expected to be strong and volatile [62][63] Sugar - **Market**: Zhengzhou sugar futures price falls. Brazil's sugar production may be affected by weather, and the international and domestic sugar supply is expected to increase. The price is likely to continue to fall [64][65] Cotton - **Market**: Zhengzhou cotton futures price is volatile. The downstream market may improve in the peak season, and domestic inventory is low. The price may rise in the short term [66]

根据公司2025年半年报，我们做出上调矿产金等相关产品销量和售价等调整，预测公司2025-2027年每股收益为1.47、1.72、2.04元(2025-2026年原预测值为1.17、1.26元)，根据可比 风险提示 受益于黄金价格强势上涨，公司业绩增长显著。公司25H1实现营业收入52.72亿元，同比增长25.64%，归母净利润11.07亿元，同比增长55.79%。业绩同比明显增长，主要原因在于黄金价格 聚焦资源储备提升，持续看好公司扩能潜力。公司不断加大探矿投入与勘查力度，夯实资源保障能力。子公司万象矿业于2025年6月末完成了SND金铜矿项目第一阶段资源勘探工作并编制了首次 降息预期进一步升温，黄金涨势或将持续，公司盈利有望延续增长。当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上指出，尽管通胀仍受关注，但就业市场风险上升可能使美 盈利预测与投资建议 公司矿产金产品的量、价、利润率不及预期的风险、美国二次通胀风险、商品价格波动风险、安全生产和环保风险、境外投资国别风险 ...

芦哲认为，美联储明年降息预期升温，而对美联储独立性的担忧预计令黄金价格阶段性维持高位、美债 期限溢价走阔。 从市场反馈来看，特朗普解雇库克的消息公布后，2年美债利率骤降，表明市场预期随着2026年5月美联 储轮换新主席，更多"特朗普派"的理事就职将令美联储明年的降息预期升温。与此同时，对美联储独立 性和美元信用的担忧也令10年期美债收益率上涨，美元指数一度由98.5下跌至98.1，黄金价格由3351美 元/盎司上涨至3377美元/盎司。 "资产价格的这一表现与今年7月16—17日特朗普威胁解雇鲍威尔风波时一致。当时，在17日特朗普否认 计划解雇鲍威尔、鲍威尔回应美联储相关工程符合规范后，市场迅速企稳。"芦哲表示，就此次而言， 美元指数已在下跌后迅速回稳，而黄金价格仍在高位，显示随着事件发酵而前景未明，市场对美联储独 立性的担忧仍未消除，预计后续法律层面的进展仍将对资产价格产生扰动。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲分析，当前美联储理事会中沃勒和鲍曼两位理事均由特朗普提名，未来如果 特朗普提名的新理事米兰能够获得参议院批准，并且在成功罢免库克后再提名另一位新理事，则理事会 中将有4人与特朗普立场一致，超过半数，特朗普对 ...

Group 1 - The market generally expects the Bank of England to maintain the key interest rate at 4% during the September meeting, but the outlook for interest rates has become uncertain, making it difficult for traders to gauge expectations [1] - Short-term, the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England have weakened, providing upward momentum for the British pound, as investors believe the Bank will adopt a more cautious approach for a longer period [1] - Analysts from ING suggest that the continued cooling of rate cut expectations supports short-term momentum for the pound, with the euro potentially falling below 0.86 against the pound [1] Group 2 - Recent economic data indicates that the UK economy continues to face challenges, with retail sales declining for the 11th consecutive month, and the CBI monthly retail sales balance slightly improving but remaining in negative territory [2] - Retailers are experiencing low sentiment and are facing cost and pricing challenges, with average sales price balances rising significantly, indicating that high cost pressures are forcing retailers to increase prices despite weak demand [2] - The UK economy is facing increasing inflationary pressures, with the Bank of England predicting the consumer price index to reach 4% by September, compounded by rising energy price caps affecting millions of households [2] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding interest rate prospects is highlighted by comments from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann, who is inclined to keep rates unchanged for an extended period but is prepared to take more aggressive policy actions if domestic demand risks materialize [3] - Mann's views align with those of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who noted the severe challenges posed by potential weak economic growth in the UK [3] - If the Bank of England implements aggressive easing policies in 2026, it could negatively impact the British pound [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to the subsequent support from the new energy sector [1] - The intraday trend of nickel and stainless steel was oscillating, with limited improvement in fundamentals and a warming expectation of interest rate cuts in September at the macro - level. There were no obvious logical changes in fundamentals [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3] - The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [3] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, short Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, short stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [4] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [4] Market Situation Analysis Core Contradictions - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was oscillating, with limited fundamental improvement and a warming expectation of interest rate cuts in September at the macro - level. Indonesia is expected to slightly lower the first - phase benchmark price in September, with a firm premium. There was rainfall in some mining areas in the Philippines during the week, and there is an overall rainfall expectation in September, with limited overall impact. The price of nickel iron remained firm, and the new tender price of a large southern factory was 940 yuan/ton. The salt plants in the new energy chain were relatively strong, the MHP market was in short supply, and some traders raised the coefficient due to shortages. New energy vehicle sales remained strong, and subsequent support still existed. The intraday trend of stainless steel was also oscillating, some spot prices rose slightly, and attention should be paid to the sentiment trend approaching the peak demand season in September and October [5] Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and include elements such as iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota permit period from three years to one year - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase the demand for stainless steel - The expectation of interest rate cuts in September has increased [7] Negative Factors - Stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow - The inventory of pure nickel is high - The seasonal inventory of nickel ore has increased, and the bottom support has loosened - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist - South Korea plans to impose anti - dumping duties on China's hot - rolled products [7] Market Data Nickel - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,760 yuan/ton, up 1390 yuan or 1% from the previous day; the closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous contract 1 was 120,370 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.05%; the closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous contract 2 was 120,480 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.02%; the closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous contract 3 was 120,700 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.02%; the LME nickel 3M price was 15,280 US dollars/ton, down 305 US dollars or 0.07% [7] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 196,852 lots, up 108,077 lots or 121.74% from the previous day; the open interest was 98,903 lots, down 10,364 lots or 9.49% [7] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 22,025 tons, down 61 tons or 0.28% [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract was - 1040 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan or - 32.9% [7] Stainless Steel - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,850 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0% from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel continuous contract 1 was 12,840 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.31%; the closing price of stainless steel continuous contract 2 was 12,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or - 0.23%; the closing price of stainless steel continuous contract 3 was 12,975 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.08% [8] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 128,526 lots, up 25,799 lots or 25.11% from the previous day; the open interest was 128,304 lots, down 5355 lots or - 4.01% [8] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 100,851 tons, down 175 tons or 0.17% [8] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract was 630 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 6.78% [8] Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel was 40,872 tons, down 1019 tons from the previous period - The LME nickel inventory was 209,220 tons, up 72 tons from the previous period - The stainless steel social inventory was 933.4 tons, down 0.2 tons from the previous period - The nickel pig iron inventory was 33,111 tons, down 304 tons from the previous period [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held this week. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market. A - shares have risen significantly in the past month and are expected to enter a high - level shock waiting for a direction decision [2]. - The bond market sentiment is expected to continue to stabilize. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may face resistance at 1.78% - 1.8%, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract at 107.4 - 107.6 [2]. - Gold is oscillating strongly, while silver long positions above $38 should be held. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and short positions in the 10 - contract should be continued [2]. - Steel product demand has stopped falling and rebounded, and can be bought. Iron ore follows steel prices, and should be bought at low levels. Due to a coal mine accident, coking coal, coke futures are expected to rebound and should be bought at low levels [2]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper inventory is decreasing near the peak season, while alumina has a supply surplus. Aluminum alloy consumption shows a marginal improvement trend [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil is under pressure from the macro - level, and short - term unilateral trading should be on the sidelines. Urea has a clear supply increase, and short - term trading should be in a band. PX and PTA are still recommended for long - positions [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, soybean meal and rapeseed meal have long - term bullish expectations. Palm oil is running strongly, while sugar should be short - held [2]. - For special commodities, the impact of the coking coal incident has weakened, and glass and soda ash should be short - sold. Natural rubber should be short - sold if raw material supply increases smoothly [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has falling prices and should be observed, while lithium carbonate has weak sentiment and should also be observed [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares are expected to enter high - level shock. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profit on previous positions [2]. - **Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment is expected to stabilize. Long positions can be lightly tried on pullbacks [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is oscillating strongly. A bullish spread strategy can be constructed, and silver long positions above $38 should be held [2]. Commodity Futures - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is weakly oscillating, and short positions in the 10 - contract should be continued [2]. - **Steel Products**: Demand has stopped falling and rebounded. Long positions can be tried for hot - rolled coils and rebar at reference prices of 3140 and 3380 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: It follows steel prices. Long positions can be taken at low levels in the range of 770 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Due to a coal mine accident, long positions can be taken at low levels [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases has been implemented, and long positions can be taken at low levels [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper inventory is decreasing near the peak season. Alumina has a supply surplus, and aluminum alloy consumption is improving [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil should be on the sidelines in the short - term. Urea should be traded in a band. PX, PTA, and short - fiber are recommended for long - positions [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal should have long - term long positions. Palm oil is running strongly, and sugar should be short - held [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Glass and soda ash should be short - sold. Natural rubber should be short - sold if raw material supply increases smoothly [2]. - **New Energy**: Polysilicon and lithium carbonate should be observed [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, pushing its price to a two-week high [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On August 26, gold prices surged to $3,393.7 per ounce, marking a 0.83% increase and reaching a two-week high due to heightened safe-haven buying [2]. - The market's expectation for a rate cut in September has risen to over 87% following Trump's actions, indicating a strong sentiment for monetary easing [5][8]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - Trump's dismissal of Cook is seen as a direct challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence, reflecting his dissatisfaction with the Fed's cautious stance on interest rate adjustments [4][5]. - The ongoing trade tensions, including threats of new tariffs on advanced technology and semiconductors, are contributing to market uncertainty and further supporting gold prices [6]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key upcoming economic data, including GDP and PCE inflation reports, are expected to influence gold prices significantly, with the core inflation rate projected to rise to 2.9% by the end of 2023 [8]. - If economic data confirms weakness, it could further increase the likelihood of rate cuts, potentially pushing gold prices above the $3,400 mark [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of lead are currently in a weak state, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market remains tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are continuously falling. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro - factors such as rising interest - rate cut expectations are favorable for the non - ferrous sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton. The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On August 26, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 33.79 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 10.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price also increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On August 26, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,865 yuan/ton and closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 45,181 lots, an increase of 3,979 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 50,846 lots, an increase of 22,871 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,970 yuan/ton and a low of 16,860 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract opened at 16,920 yuan/ton and closed at 16,890 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the afternoon close [1] Regional Quotes - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. In Henan, suppliers quoted at a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or a discount of 120 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 lead contract. In Hunan, branded lead smelters quoted at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, with one smelter quoting at a premium of 50 yuan/ton but no transactions. Some suppliers quoted at a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 lead contract and made transactions. In Guangdong, suppliers' premium quotes were further lowered to par with the SMM1 lead price. In Yunnan, non - branded lead smelters quoted at a discount of 200 - 170 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price [2] Inventory - On August 26, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 6.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons from the previous week. As of August 26, the LME lead inventory was 271,550 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contract for tin futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange experienced narrow fluctuations during the day and closed higher at night, while London tin showed a strong oscillation trend [1] Fundamental Summary - As of August 26, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported tin registered warehouse receipts of 1,625 tons and canceled receipts of 155 tons, an increase of 55 tons; total tin inventory stood at 1,780 tons, a decrease of 5 tons [2] - In the spot market, small brands were heard trading at a premium of around 300 yuan/ton for September, while "Yun" brands were at a premium of 300-600 yuan/ton, and "Yunxi" brands remained at a premium of 600-800 yuan/ton [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported tin warehouse receipts of 7,152 tons on August 26, an increase of 120 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Institutional Perspectives - Hualian Futures noted a slight month-on-month increase in supply in July, with low tin ore imports; demand in the semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors remained strong, while traditional sectors showed marginal decline, with expectations of rigid demand in August [4] - Social inventory saw a slight week-on-week increase last week; the National Energy Administration reported that total electricity consumption in July surpassed 1 trillion kilowatt-hours, reaching 1.02 trillion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 8.6% [4] - The recent speech by the Federal Reserve Chairman at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium indicated a shift in risk balance, suggesting potential adjustments in policy stance due to rising downside risks in employment [4] - Nanhua Futures highlighted that the continuous decline in social inventory of tin ingots over the past two weeks may provide upward momentum for tin prices, with demand from soldering material enterprises remaining stable as long as prices do not exceed 270,000 yuan per ton [5] - The overall market outlook is expected to remain oscillatory [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Aluminum - Short - term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic due to improved macro - atmosphere and peak - season expectations. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. However, if demand doesn't improve and capital sentiment cools, the price may fall [1]. Alumina - The overall supply of alumina is in an oversupply pattern. Although cost and some factory overhauls provide support, the spot and futures prices are under pressure. The main contract reference range is 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton, and short - term downward and upward spaces are limited [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of the aluminum alloy market are marginally improving. Spot prices are expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The main contract reference range is 20000 - 20600 yuan/ton [3]. Copper - Copper prices are at least expected to remain volatile. The price may enter a new upward cycle when the commodity and financial attributes of copper resonate. The main contract reference range is 78500 - 80500 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term due to improved interest - rate cut expectations. The main contract reference range is 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton. Upward continuous rebound requires better - than - expected demand, and downward breakthrough needs ultra - strong TC and continuous inventory accumulation [8]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to be adjusted within a range. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. The market has cost support, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to have short - term range - bound fluctuations. The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. The market is still restricted by weak spot demand, and the cost support remains [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate around 80,000 yuan/ton. The supply - side news is not fully confirmed, and the improved fundamentals provide support for the price [14]. Tin - Tin prices have risen due to the dovish signal from the Fed. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the price is expected to remain high and volatile [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 yuan/ton; the spread between 2509 - 2510 is 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Alumina**: The average price of alumina in Shandong is 3180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.31%) [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price is 20550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between 2511 - 2512 is - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79585 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton (0.24%); the spread between 2509 - 2510 is 40 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (- 0.13%); the spread between 2509 - 2510 is 15 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 121450 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (0.16%); the spread between 2510 - 2511 is - 110 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between 2510 - 2511 is - 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 81700 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton (- 0.97%); the spread between 2509 - 2511 is 240 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [14]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 270000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton (0.11%); the spread between 2509 - 2510 is - 340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: In July, aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month; the aluminum profile production rate was 50.5%, unchanged month - on - month [1]. - **Alumina**: In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the daily average production exceeded 260,000 tons, a record high [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.5 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.6 million tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [3]. - **Copper**: In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [4]. - **Zinc**: In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; the import volume was 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [8]. - **Nickel**: In July, the production of refined nickel products was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In July, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 7.3 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 96,100 tons, up 2.50% month - on - month [14]. - **Tin**: In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [17].