Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For soda ash, short - term fundamentals have returned. It's recommended to buy the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the production cut intensity. The market supply is currently loose, and the destocking process will be repeated. The price drop today is mainly due to the decline of coking coal, and it's uncertain whether the anti - involution meeting will lead to price speculation [2]. - For glass, the supply is at a low level with no change in cold - repair of production lines. The demand from the real estate is weak, but downstream deep - processing orders have a slight increase. It's recommended to buy the main contract on dips when the price drops to around 1100 yuan. The market may trade the positive impact of potential interest rate cuts [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1309 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1162 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 147 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; soda ash main contract position: 1365953 lots, down 62895 lots; glass main contract position: 1198103 lots, up 1641 lots [2]. - Soda ash front 20 net position: 34639 lots, down 345354 lots; glass front 20 net position: 30267 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 11020 tons, down 100 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 2388 tons, down 50 tons [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: 828 yuan, up 13 yuan; glass September - January contract spread: - 165 yuan, up 11 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis: - 98 yuan, up 8 yuan; glass basis: - 82 yuan, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1325 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash: 1265 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass large board: 1084 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass large board: 1090 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 87.32%, up 1.91%; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, up 2.34% [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production production lines: 223, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 189.73 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; glass enterprise inventory: 6342.6 million heavy boxes, up 157.9 million heavy boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Real estate new construction area cumulative value: 35206 million square meters, up 4841.68 million square meters; real estate completion area cumulative value: 25034 million square meters, up 2467.39 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - One - year and five - year LPR remain unchanged; the new generation of military equipment will be unveiled; the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues [2]. 3.6 Macro Situation In July, the prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed overall [2]. 3.7 View Summary - Soda ash: The supply is abundant in the short - term, and the production may decline in the future. The demand from glass is at a low level, and the photovoltaic glass drives a small increase in demand. The inventory is rising due to insufficient demand [2]. - Glass: The supply is at a low level, and the demand from the real estate is weak. The downstream deep - processing orders have a slight increase, and the market may start the restocking expectation [2].

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market - Current valuation of Hong Kong stocks has significantly recovered, with the Hang Seng Index's forecast PE at approximately 11 times, returning to the peak levels of 2018-2019 [1][2] - Risk premium is at a historical low, and the AH premium has reached a six-year low, indicating a favorable market environment [1][2] - The market is entering a seasonal lull in August, with mid-year earnings reports expected to validate the fundamentals, and some stocks may experience profit-taking from "good news" [1][2] - Despite potential technical corrections, the ample liquidity in the Hong Kong market suggests that any adjustments will likely be limited in scope [1][2] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - In July, U.S. retail sales growth has shown a steady slowdown, while PPI exceeded expectations, leading to a shift in interest rate cut expectations [3] - The S&P 500 index reported an 11.2% growth in corporate earnings for the second quarter, indicating robust earnings growth [3] - The U.S. Treasury is replenishing the TGA account, with ONRRP balances dropping to $57.2 billion, which may lead to decreased liquidity in the financial system in the coming weeks [3] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Bonds - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield is fluctuating around 4.30%, influenced by mixed inflation data and the need for fiscal policy adjustments [4] - Short-term yields may face upward pressure due to concerns over persistent inflation and the impact of Treasury bond issuance [4] - The focus remains on key data such as the core PCE to further assess the impact of tariffs on inflation [4] Group 4: Currency and Trade - The offshore RMB has shown slight volatility but remains around the 7.18 level, indicating a stable and strong central parity [5] - The extension of the U.S.-China trade truce for an additional 90 days suggests ongoing negotiations, which may lead to fluctuations in the exchange rate [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The "stagflation-like" environment of a weakening US economy and commodity inflation restricts the space for interest rate cuts, suppressing the upside of copper prices. The short - term focus is on interest rate cut expectations. In the fundamental aspect, as it approaches the traditional peak season, the spot premium is strong, and domestic social inventories are starting to decline. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term supply disruptions and long - term overcapacity coexist, and the price is expected to range between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, macro factors provide some support, but the supply - demand structure is under pressure. The supply is stable with a slight increase, while the demand is in a seasonal off - peak period. The short - term price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, with the main contract referring to 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. As it enters the transition period from the off - peak to the peak season in mid - August, demand is expected to improve. If the import situation remains the same, the spot price may remain relatively firm, and the spread between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream overseas zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production resumption, but the production growth rate of global mines in May and domestic mines in July is lower than expected. The supply at the smelting end is increasing, while the demand is in the seasonal off - peak period. Low global inventories support prices. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7][8]. Tin - The actual tin ore supply remains tight. If the supply recovery fails to meet expectations, tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate at high levels [9]. Nickel - The macro environment has increased expectations of more aggressive easing. The spot price is basically stable, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose. The stainless steel demand is weak, and the new energy downstream has low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is oscillating weakly. The export pressure has been temporarily alleviated, and the nickel iron price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is expected to increase, but the terminal demand is weak. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract referring to 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is slightly adjusted, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance. Supply is expected to contract in the short - term, while demand is showing a positive trend. The overall inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with the main contract fluctuating in the range of 85,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [15]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,100 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 195 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. Other copper prices and premiums also show corresponding changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% month - on - month. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.38 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,590 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous day. The import loss is - 1,289 yuan/ton, an improvement of 113.2 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month. The operating rates of various aluminum products have increased to varying degrees [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remains stable at 20,350 yuan/ton in most regions. The scrap - to - refined price difference in some regions has changed, such as a 9.38% decrease in the scrap - to - refined price difference of Foshan crushed raw aluminum [5]. Fundamental Data - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 625,000 tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 266,000 tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The import loss is - 1,728 yuan/ton, an improvement of 62.92 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, the import volume was 36,100 tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 266,200 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium is 89 dollars/ton, up 41.27% from the previous day [9]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price remains stable at 121,650 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,350 yuan/ton, up 6.82% from the previous day [10]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in July was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,100 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The forward - spot spread is 385 yuan/ton, up 24.19% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in July was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 109,500 tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1.30% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread remains stable at 2,300 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month. The total inventory in July was 97,846 tons, down 2.01% month - on - month [15].

随后公布的数据显示，经济和劳动力市场表现好于预期，这进一步证明了保持谨慎立场的必要性。周 二，交易员预计11月降息的可能性为三分之一，年底前降息的可能性仅为50%。 这些数据对里夫斯和英国首相基尔·斯塔默来说也是一个打击，他们上任时承诺要改善"劳动人民"的生 活水平。然而，由于通胀回升与劳动力市场降温，实际收入的复苏正在逐渐停滞。批评人士将通胀回升 与劳动力市场降温归咎于他们去年10月份提出的增税预算。 7月份英国通胀率连续第二个月攀升，这给英国央行增加了重新考虑降息步伐的压力。英国国家统计局 周三公布，英国7月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨3.8%，高于6月份的3.6%，并创下2024年1月以来的最 大涨幅。此次价格上涨主要受机票、酒店和汽车燃油价格上涨的推动。 服务业通胀率是衡量潜在价格压力的良好指标，该指数攀升至5%，高于英国央行预测的4.9%。通胀数 据公布后，英镑兑美元汇率收复部分跌幅，基本持平于1.3492。 这些数据进一步证明，企业正在对英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯4月份大幅提高税收和最低工资标准做出 反应，将数亿英镑的额外成本转嫁给消费者。食品价格涨幅加快至 4.9%，高于前一个月的4.5%， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices continued to fluctuate on Tuesday and are expected to remain volatile in the short term. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton has been raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices, while the strong support of the US dollar index exerts pressure on the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals [3]. - There are both利多 and利空 factors for copper prices.利多 factors include reaching a tariff agreement, a decline in the US dollar index due to increased interest - rate cut expectations, and the upward shift of the support level.利空 factors include tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariffs, and an extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,890 yuan per ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts around 82,000 yuan per ton and sell 25% of CU2510C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable. - For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, buy 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts around 77,000 yuan per ton [2]. Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | Yuan/ton | 78,890 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 78,870 | - 40 | - 0.05% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 78,850 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,684.5 | - 67.5 | - 0.69% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.21 | 0.03 | 0.37% | [6] Copper Spot Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 79,100 | - 180 | - 0.23% | | Shanghai Wumaotong | Yuan/ton | 79,050 | - 230 | - 0.29% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve | Yuan/ton | 78,970 | - 180 | - 0.23% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 79,220 | - 210 | - 0.26% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 195 | - 30 | - 13.33% | | Shanghai Wumaotong Premium | Yuan/ton | 130 | - 40 | - 23.53% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve Premium | Yuan/ton | 155 | - 45 | - 22.5% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 185 | - 5 | - 2.63% | [12] Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,049.89 | 36.38 | 3.59% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,491.35 | - 0.7 | - 0.05% | | Price Advantage (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | - 441.46 | 37.08 | - 7.75% | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 5,735 | 30 | 0.53% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 6,191.97 | - 4.86 | - 0.08% | | Price Advantage (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | - 456.97 | 34.86 | - 7.09% | [17] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts total 25,498 tons (unchanged), and International Copper warehouse receipts total 8,780 tons, a decrease of 5,571 tons (- 38.82%). - LME copper inventory totals 155,150 tons, a decrease of 450 tons (- 0.29%). - COMEX copper inventory totals 269,943 tons, an increase of 4,054 tons (1.52%) [21][23][24]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is 332.39 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.25 yuan (0.99%). The copper concentrate TC is - 37.67 US dollars per ton, unchanged [25].

潮新闻客户端 记者 吴恩慧 A股创近十年新高，资本市场又热闹起来，与此作为对比，作为避险资产的黄金近期却跌跌不休。 黄金在周二震荡盘整，下跌0.49%，收于3315.51美元/盎司，今天早盘，黄金继续盘整，一度下跌并创下两周以来的最低点。截至目前，国内基础金价回落 至770元/克以下，周大福等品牌金店黄金零售价格在1002元/克，老庙黄金、周六福等跌破1000元/克。 为何黄金一直盘整？接下去该怎么配置黄金？ 此外，俄乌紧张局势也有缓解迹象，根据央视新闻，俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫近日在接受采访时表示，关于乌克兰问题谈判的形式，俄方既不拒绝双边会 谈，也不拒绝三边会谈，普京总统对此也说过多次。 多重因素导致金价下挫 在地缘政治缓和、美元走强、美联储政策降息不确定性等多重因素扰动下，黄金已经盘整近4个月。 本周五，美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会发表演讲，市场普遍期待他释放降息信号，但经济数据的矛盾走势可能促使他采取谨慎立场。在特朗 普强烈施压要求降息的背景下，周五的这场演讲或成为全市场的焦点。 "市场预期美联储在9月降息25个基点的可能性约为80%，并已完全消化了年底前两次降息的预期，降息的预期降温对黄金 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Macroscopically, the "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the space for interest - rate cuts, suppressing the upside potential of copper prices. The short - term focus is on the US inflation and employment data in August, which will influence the Fed's decision in September. - Fundamentally, as it approaches the traditional peak season, the spot premium is strong, and domestic social inventories are starting to decline. With "tight mine supply + resilient demand," there is support for prices. In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading. The price is expected to range between 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term supply disruptions such as the crackdown on bauxite theft in Shanxi and the demonstration in Guinea have raised concerns, but mid - term production capacity is expected to increase, and the market will remain slightly oversupplied. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. - For electrolytic aluminum, although there is some support from domestic consumption - stimulating policies and expectations of Fed rate cuts, the supply is stable with a slight increase, and demand is still in the off - season. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, with a focus on the 21,000 yuan/ton resistance level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The current market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, as it enters the transition period from the off - season to the peak season in mid - August, demand is expected to improve. If the import price ratio remains the same, the supply of imported aluminum alloy ingots and scrap will be limited. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream overseas zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production resumption, but the production growth rate in May globally and in July domestically fell short of expectations. The smelter's production enthusiasm is high, and the supply of refined zinc increased in July. Demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to range between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7][8]. Tin - Supply of tin ore remains tight, and the resumption of production in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter. Demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period and the entry of the electronics industry into the off - season. If supply recovers smoothly, short - selling opportunities may arise; otherwise, the price will remain high and volatile [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the US inflation pressure has eased, and the market expects more aggressive easing policies. Industrially, the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the price of ferronickel is rising, but there is still an oversupply pressure. Stainless steel demand is weak, and the downstream of the new energy sector has a low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is weak, with low procurement enthusiasm from downstream enterprises. Although the export pressure has been alleviated, the terminal demand is still weak. The price of ferronickel is rising, and the supply of stainless steel is expected to increase in August. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are in a tight balance. Supply is expected to contract in the short term, while demand is entering the peak season and is showing a positive trend. Although the actual demand has not significantly increased due to inventory pressure in the material industry chain, the overall market atmosphere is strong. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 85,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various types of copper decreased slightly, with the SMM 1 electrolytic copper at 79,100 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 3.59% to 1,020 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47%, and imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74%. Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventories decreased by 10.01% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,590 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The import loss decreased by 113.2 yuan/ton to 1,289 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40%, and electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.41% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 30 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31%. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 2.03% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The import loss decreased by 62.92 yuan/ton to 1,728 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03%. The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased by 13.59% [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 tin price was 266,200 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 41.27% to 89.00 dollars/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 to - 230. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44% to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94% to 14,840 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price remained unchanged at 121,650 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 6.82% to 2,350 yuan/ton. - **Supply and Inventory**: In July, China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, while imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 1.72% [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 13,100 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 1.00% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1.30%. The 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41%, and demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62%. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week's unexpected US inflation data pressured gold and silver, and recent positive signals from US-Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The sharp increase in the US PPI in July cooled the expectation of a significant interest rate cut. Although the employment market's weakening supported the prices of gold and silver, the overall trade environment continued to deteriorate. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continued to purchase gold. Gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of an interest rate cut rises [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts all declined, with the decline rates of Shanghai gold futures at -0.32% and that of Shanghai silver futures at -1.37% and -1.35% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied [2]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of spot gold and silver also decreased, with the decline rate of London silver reaching -1.66%. The price differences between different contracts and the ratios of Shanghai gold/silver to London gold/silver changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of gold and silver in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX changed, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory increasing by 11,020 kilograms and the COMEX's gold inventory decreasing by 17,425.86 ounces [2]. - **Related Derivatives and Macroeconomic Indicators**: The US dollar index rose by 0.13%, the S&P 500 index fell by -0.59%, the US Treasury yield decreased by -0.92%, and the positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF increased slightly [2]. Macro News - Trump stated that the US would help Ukraine defend but not send ground troops, and Ukraine would not be allowed to join NATO. The US planned a tripartite meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest [3]. - The US Department of Commerce added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, with a tax rate of 50% [3]. - Japan and the US planned to closely discuss the implementation of a $550 billion investment in the US and set up a mechanism to verify national interests [3]. - The annualized monthly rate of new housing starts in the US in July increased by 5.2%, reaching 1.428 million units, higher than market expectations [3]. Comments and Strategies - The unexpected inflation data in the US last week pressured gold and silver, and the positive signals from US-Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The sharp increase in the US PPI in July cooled the expectation of a significant interest rate cut [4]. - Previously, the US Treasury Secretary believed that there was a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, but the inflation data has changed this expectation [4]. - The employment market's weakening supported the prices of gold and silver, but the overall trade environment continued to deteriorate. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continued to purchase gold. Gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of an interest rate cut rises [4].

Group 1 - The AI boom is temporarily cooling down, with major tech stocks like Nvidia and AMD experiencing significant declines, indicating a market correction after a 40% surge in the Nasdaq over the past four months. This shift suggests a rotation of funds towards sectors that can genuinely leverage AI for profit, such as manufacturing and retail, presenting a good opportunity for long-term investments [3][4] - Trump's new tariffs on 407 categories of steel and aluminum products, with rates reaching up to 50%, aim to protect U.S. manufacturing but may reignite inflation due to increased costs for downstream products. This policy could benefit traditional industrial stocks while posing risks for export-dependent companies [4][5] - The geopolitical situation regarding Russia and Ukraine, along with the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions, creates uncertainty in the market. The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is high, but rising inflation from tariffs may complicate the Fed's decision-making process [5][6] Group 2 - Home Depot's stock rose 3.7% despite not meeting earnings expectations, reflecting investor confidence in its full-year performance. This indicates the importance of certainty in the market [6] - Upcoming earnings reports from Lowe's and Walmart are anticipated to provide insights into the resilience of the consumer sector, which may become a new focal point for the market [6] - Caution is advised regarding high-valuation AI concept stocks, as the market may need time to digest the current bubble before truly innovative companies emerge [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: PPI exceeding expectations dampens expectations of interest rate cuts [2][4] - Silver: Experiences a slight decline [2][4] - Copper: The rise of the US dollar puts pressure on prices [2][9] - Zinc: Shows a slight drop [2][12] - Lead: A significant increase in overseas inventories puts pressure on prices [2][15] - Tin: Trades within a range [2][18] - Aluminum: Trades within a range; Alumina: Shifts downward; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][22] - Nickel: Narrow - range fluctuations based on fundamental logic, with caution for news - related risks [2][25] - Stainless steel: The steel price fluctuates due to the game between macro expectations and reality [2][25] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all declined, with daily declines of - 0.33%, - 0.31%, and - 0.57% respectively. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and Silver T + D also decreased, with daily declines of - 0.77% and - 0.48% respectively. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is - 1, and silver trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [7]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by - 0.05%, and the London Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by - 0.69%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US Department of Commerce included 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products in the tariff list. The meeting locations for the US, Russia, and Ukraine are being considered, and Trump mentioned that Ukraine may need to make territorial concessions. PT Smelting's oxygen - making equipment malfunction extended the maintenance period, and Codelco restarted the smelter at the El Teniente copper mine. Glencore applied to include two copper mine projects in Argentina in the investment incentive plan [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by - 0.69%, and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by - 0.45%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, spreads, and inventories [12]. - **News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments aimed to standardize the photovoltaic industry competition order [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 0.30%, and the London Lead 3M electronic disk decreased by - 0.03%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, spreads, and inventories [15]. - **News**: The US Department of Commerce included 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products in the tariff list, and the meeting locations for the US, Russia, and Ukraine are being considered [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [16]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 0.40%, and the London Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 0.30%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were multiple news events including diplomatic meetings and corporate actions [19][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased, and there were changes in trading volume, positions, spreads, and inventories for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy. There were also changes in related costs, profits, and prices in the industrial chain [22]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US Department of Commerce included 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products in the tariff list [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is - 1, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, positions, and various industry - related data for nickel and stainless steel [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were multiple news events related to the nickel and stainless - steel industries, including production suspensions, regulatory requirements, and government actions [25][26][27][28][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless steel trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [30].