Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a consolidation phase, having largely completed the macroeconomic impact recovery process, with the Hang Seng Index approaching its March high due to themes in new consumption and pharmaceuticals [1][2] Market Conditions - The recent rise in the Hong Kong stock market is supported by a significant reduction in tariff uncertainties and a stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, alongside ample liquidity in the Hong Kong dollar market [2][3] - Despite the favorable liquidity environment, the Hang Seng Technology Index remains in a sideways trend, indicating that strong upward catalysts are still needed for the technology sector [2] Investment Opportunities - The current market conditions present a favorable window for investors, particularly as the technology sector has seen a release of valuation pressure, transitioning from a structural market to a broader rally [3] - The improvement in risk sentiment and liquidity provides a necessary foundation for the next phase of technology stock rallies, with the potential for significant upward movement as the narrative themes evolve [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rise in asset prices is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon, reflecting where funds are directed. The stock market is currently experiencing this shift after the real estate market. The bull market is driven not by a sudden surge in corporate profits but by a systematic redirection of funds from traditional sectors to undervalued core assets in the secondary market, creating a mismatch between liquidity and asset supply [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The banking and insurance sectors in China have undergone a significant value reassessment since last year, accelerating since May 2023, indicating a trend not driven by retail investors [2]. - The valuation of Chinese banking and insurance stocks has been at unprecedented lows, with major banks' price-to-book ratios dropping significantly, such as Bank of China at 0.40 and Agricultural Bank of China at 0.40, marking a historical low [4][5]. - The insurance sector has faced even harsher conditions, with China Life's price-to-embedded value ratio at 0.22 and a price-to-book ratio of 0.6, placing it in the lowest 5% of its historical range [4]. Group 2: Valuation Comparisons - In contrast to Chinese financial institutions, major global banks like JPMorgan have a price-to-book ratio of 2.4, while European and Japanese banks hover around 1.0, highlighting a significant undervaluation of Chinese financial stocks [5]. - The extreme undervaluation of Chinese financial stocks, coupled with dividend yields of 6% to 8%, presents a unique investment opportunity in the global financial market [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Market Recovery - Since 2020, China's financial system has been in deep adjustment, focusing on reducing shadow banking and addressing real estate and local government debt risks, which has pressured profitability and valuation [6]. - Despite the challenges, this period has led to improved asset quality, with banks achieving a provisioning coverage ratio above 200% and stable capital adequacy ratios [6][7]. - The current policy environment is actively directing liquidity into the equity market, with regulatory measures encouraging insurance companies to allocate a significant portion of new premiums to A-shares [8][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing valuation recovery is seen as just the beginning, with continued monetary supply and a focus on undervalued, high-dividend financial blue-chip stocks expected to absorb market liquidity [10]. - The market is anticipated to experience a gradual bull market, characterized by steady index increases and reduced volatility, until a new phase of large-scale equity financing or a shift in interest rate cycles occurs [10].

今年下半年第一个交易日，又有多只银行股价格再度创下历史新高。 7月1日，A股42家上市银行全线飘红，多只个股录得2%以上涨幅。Choice数据显示，当日银行板块的主力净流 入额达26.57亿元，板块涨幅达1.54%。当日，建设银行、浦发银行、厦门银行均创下历史新高。 回顾今年上半年，银行板块持续受益于高股息板块的投资热度，保险资金等中长期资金入市加快，频频举牌上 市银行。与此同时，政策红利下，中央汇金持续增持、ETF等指数基金大幅加仓。多因素催化下，银行板块获 得持续上涨，多只个股不断创下上市以来新高。券商中国记者据Choice统计，上半年浦发银行、青岛银行、兴 业银行等10只个股累计涨幅超过20%。 股价迭创新高 7月1日，A股银行板块再度迎来全面上涨，42家上市银行无一例外。其中，苏州银行大涨5.13%，厦门银行、 杭州银行涨幅均超3%；共有13只银行股涨幅超过2%。 值得一提的是，近几个交易日共有16家上市银行再度刷新股价纪录，包括"工农中建交"五大国有银行，以及浦 发银行、华夏银行、光大银行和兴业银行等4家股份行，另有北京银行、江苏银行、南京银行、上海银行、杭 州银行、成都银行和长沙银行等7家城商行， ...

专题报告 2025-07-02 PX：投产真空期下的估值修复 报告要点： 本报告围绕国内 PX 产能缺口去看待 PXN 的中枢修复，通过对比 2025 年与 2014-2018 年的产能 缺口、基本面以及估值，认为当前 PX 经过了接近两年的投产空窗期，产能缺口逐渐靠近 2014-2018 年水平，并且近期在高开工的情况下仍然维持去库格局，其估值中枢在没有额外驱 动下，理论上有潜力修复至 2014-2017 年平均水平，即修复至 350 美元/吨左右，节奏上应当 在裕龙石化投产落地前。 刘洁文 能化研究员 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 马桂炎（联系人） 能化研究员 从业资格号：F03136381 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 能源化工研究 | PX 一、产能周期对比 在经过连续几年的大投产后，国内 PX 投产进入连续两年的真空期。对于国内 PX 而 言，国内 PTA 投产速度较快，无论裕龙石化是否投产，PX 国内产能缺口在 2025 年 都将扩大。在假设 PTA 产能全部投放的前提下，若裕龙石化投产，国 ...

| | | 甲醇日评20250702: 择机做多MTO利润 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 | 单位 | 2025/7/1 | 2025/6/30 | (絶对值) | 变化值 (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2420.00 | 2413.00 | 7.00 | 0.29% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2334.00 | 2325.00 | 9.00 | 0.39% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2384.00 | 2381.00 | 3.00 | 0.13% | | | | 太仓 | 元/呼 | 2540.00 | 2790.00 | -250.00 | -8.96% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2240.00 | 2230.00 | 10.00 | 0.45% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2445.00 | 2435.00 | 10.00 | 0.41% | | 及基差 | 甲醇现货价格 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)" on February 8, 2025, implementing a two-tier evaluation for steel enterprises, which is expected to help the steel sector's profitability recover to historical average levels [1] - In early June, key enterprises reported a daily average crude steel output of 2.159 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.25%, while the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate slightly rose to 90.83%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points [1] - The weekly output of rebar increased by 2.67% to 2.1784 million tons, and the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is at a low level of 150 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is at 32.03%, with the current ratio at 0.50, indicating room for recovery compared to the peak of 0.82 in August 2017 [1] - The Steel ETF tracks the CSI Steel Index, which is compiled by the China Securities Index Co., Ltd., covering listed companies involved in steel production, processing, and sales, effectively reflecting the overall performance of the steel industry [1] - The index constituents have strong industry representation and integrity of the industrial chain, providing investors with important tools to seize investment opportunities in the steel sector [1]

氯碱日报 | 2025-07-02 供需驱动弱势，PVC震荡走低 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4821元/吨（-68）；华东基差-41元/吨（+68）;华南基差-21元/吨（-22）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4780元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4800元/吨（-90）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2880元/吨（+0）；电石利润130元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-504元/吨（-10）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-693元/吨（-53）；PVC出口利润-7.9美元/吨（-0.8）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存39.5万吨（-0.6）；PVC社会库存36.2万吨（+0.7）；PVC电石法开工率80.43%（+0.81%）； PVC乙烯法开工率67.38%（-1.85%）；PVC开工率76.81%（+0.07%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量62.9万吨（-1.9）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2358元/吨（+39）；山东32%液碱基差48元/吨（-70）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价770元/吨（-10）；山东50%液碱 ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 美国股市在2025年上半年的走势犹如坐上过山车，在创下历史新高后，多重不确定性因素 正为下半年行情蒙上阴影。 纽约时间7月1日，美国股市在2025年上半年的走势犹如坐上过山车，在创下历史新高后，多重不确 定性因素正为下半年行情蒙上阴影。尽管标普500指数年内仍维持5%以上的涨幅，但4月因特朗普政 府"关税风暴"引发的市场恐慌至今令人心有余悸。当前投资者正屏息关注六大关键变量，这些因素 或将决定美股能否守住当前高位。 关税会产生影响吗?还是只会起到震慑作用? 首当其冲的仍是关税政策走向。虽然市场对最极端情景的担忧有所缓解，但7月9日这个关键时间节 点正步步逼近，美国与多国的贸易谈判结果可能引发新一轮市场波动。高盛最新测算显示，即便部 分严苛关税措施被取消，已落地的政策仍推动美国实际关税税率从年初3%攀升至13%，这或将持续 推高通胀压力并侵蚀企业利润。即将于本月下旬披露的二季度财报将成为重要试金石，数据显示， 标普500成分股盈利预计增长5.9%，投资者将密切关注企业如何消化关税成本。 美联储何时降息? 美联储政策路径同样牵动市场神经。鲍威尔近期明确将关税引发的通胀风险列为延缓降息的重要考 ...

2025年7月2日，银行板块逆市攀升，这是自上周五（5月27日）短暂回调后，银行连续第三日走出阳 线。个股多数上涨，兰州银行、商行银行等10余股涨逾1%，建设银行、浦发银行续创新高。 百亿顶流银行ETF（512800）低开高走，场内价格现涨0.4%，冲击日线3连阳，在所有均线上方稳步向 上。 回顾今年上半年，银行板块指数累计涨幅达13.1%，跑赢沪深300指数13.07个百分点，位居各行业（申 万一级）第二位。截至6月30日，A股银行板块总市值攀升至15.44万亿元，总市值占上市公司板块比例 为14.74%，较年初市值增幅约1.87万亿元。 就年内银行行情逻辑，银河证券认为与2023、2024年有所区别，这是因为与红利逻辑主导的2023、2024 年相比，今年以来银行板块红利价值逻辑有所降温，政策红利下的资金裂变成为主导银行估值重塑的核 心驱动。增量资金流入银行板块，多数情况下由政策推动，包括中长期资金入市、公募基金欠配调仓、 汇金增持和被动型指数ETF的发展等。 *注：截至2025.6.27，银行ETF（512800）基金规模、近1年日均成交额均居A股10只银行业ETF首位。 数据来源：沪深交易所等。 风险 ...

山东黄金 20250701 摘要 焦家金矿扰动曾导致山东黄金产量和利润大幅下降，成本显著上升，但 预计 2025 年产量逐步恢复，成本端压力有望缓解，推动市场对其二季 度业绩改善的预期。 山东黄金作为贵金属板块龙头，其股价强势表现预示着整个板块可能迎 来转折，尤其是在金价相对疲软的情况下，更显现出公司自身及板块的 潜力。 2024 年山东黄金业绩不佳主要源于焦家金矿的矿山扰动，导致产量下 降和成本上升，但 2025 年预计产量恢复，成本有望控制在 310 元/克左 右，二季度业绩预期为 18-20 亿元。 市场对山东黄金的业绩预期经历了一季度后的下调，但随着矿山恢复， 分析师逐步上调预期，目前一致预期已上调至 60 亿左右，乐观预期甚 至达到 75-78 亿，带来市值修复。 管理层变动一度对山东黄金产生影响，但随着新任董事长上任，公司有 望重拾新目标和规划，自二季度开始进入明显修复期，盈利端预期逐步 提升。 Q&A 山东黄金在近期表现强势的原因是什么？ 山东黄金近期表现强势的核心原因在于市场对其二季度业绩的乐观预期。去年 （2024 年）山东黄金的业绩表现不佳，尤其是在二季度、三季度和四季度， 业绩相较市场预 ...