| 19 E K # 5 | 日度策略参 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品種 | 股指 | 震荡 | 持有的多头头寸考虑减仓,警惕进一步调整风险。 | 110 | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 容间。 | 宏观金融 | | | | | | | 短期金价或进入盘整;但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。明终 | 農汤 | 黄金 | 整体跟随黄金,但关税超预期结果将利好白银商品属性,因此短 | 農法 | 三 千尺 | | | | 期银价韧性或强于黄金。 | 近期市场情绪好转,铜价走高,但下游需求转弱,铜价存在回调 | 股 | | | | | | | 风险。 | 电解铝自身产业面无明显矛盾,在中美贸易谈判结果超预期情况 | 看头 | | | | | | | 下,铝价延续反弹走势。 | 铝土矿及氧化铝供应扰动有所提升,氧化铝供需格局有所好转 | 氧化铝 | | | | | | | 短期价格或进一步反弹。 | 步入淡季终端需求明显走弱,叠加 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term rebound of the steel, iron ore, and other futures markets is supported by factors such as the marginal improvement of weekly data and the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, but the pessimistic demand expectations limit the upside space. For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market fluctuated narrowly. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel rebounded significantly, production was relatively stable, and inventory resumed a downward trend. The demand for hot - rolled coil also recovered, production declined, and inventory resumed a downward trend. Iron ore production is at a high level, and the supply pressure is still large. As the off - season of demand approaches, the terminal's carrying capacity needs to be observed. Domestic demand in downstream industries is still weak, manufacturing prosperity has declined, and real estate sales recovery is fluctuating [1] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market fluctuated. On the supply side, the global shipment of iron ore fluctuated normally, with no obvious increase for the time being. The domestic arrival volume decreased, and the national port inventory decreased. On the demand side, terminal demand rebounded, but there is still seasonal weakening pressure in the future. With a high profit rate of steel mills, iron ore production can still maintain a high level for the time being. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the decline of iron ore production in the medium term [2] Coke - The price of coke fluctuated weakly. It is expected to be reduced in price this Thursday, and daily production has increased slightly. The overall inventory of coke has not been effectively reduced and remains at a high level, and traders have no purchasing enthusiasm. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the downstream iron ore production remains stable at a high level. Steel billet export orders are good. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Coking Coal - The price of coking coal fluctuated weakly. Production has gradually climbed to a relatively high level this year. The activity of the spot auction market is low, the transaction price has loosened slightly, and the terminal inventory is still high. The total inventory of coking coal is basically flat, the production - end inventory pressure remains high, and downstream coking plants and steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5] Silicomanganese - The price of silicomanganese fluctuated narrowly. The national manganese ore port inventory has been continuously rising, with a cumulative increase of more than 300,000 tons last week. It is estimated that about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port by the end of this month. Iron ore production remains stable at a high level, the supply of silicomanganese continues to decline, and the overall inventory level has increased significantly, which continues to suppress the price. It is recommended to wait and see and pay continuous attention to tariff trends [6] Ferrosilicon - The price of ferrosilicon fluctuated narrowly. Iron ore production remains stable at a high level. Export demand generally shows a downward trend month - on - month, but the marginal impact is small. The production of magnesium metal is basically flat and remains stable at a relatively high level, and the overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon has rebounded slightly, the market transaction level is average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has continuously increased. It is recommended to wait and see and pay continuous attention to tariff trends [7]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年05月14日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | ☆☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ☆☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面继续反弹。节前下游补库透支,淡季临近需求走弱，螺纹表需大幅下滑，产量有所回落,库存有所累积。热卷需求同 步回落，产量趋稳，库存有所累积。铁水产量处于高位，供应压力明显增大，终端承接能力不足引发负反馈担忧。从下游行业 看，4月CPI、PPI依然低迷，制造业景气度有所下滑，地产销售复苏 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a downward - centered and weak manner, and will be in a state of shock consolidation. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content For Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 short - process steel mill stopped production on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and individual ones after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons. [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase. [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in shock, hitting a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support. [3] - The finished products are expected to move in a shock - consolidated manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand. [3] For Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. The US CPI increased by 0.2% last month, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the consumer price index decreased by 0.1% in March. The easing of trade tensions reduced the market's expectation of an economic recession. [2] - Last week, the total operating capacity of alumina enterprises decreased slightly by 80,000 tons/year. In the short - term, the operating capacity may fluctuate. The spot price may rebound slightly, but the cost - side support is weakening, and the price is expected to move in a shock in the short - term. [3] - Last week, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%. The aluminum cable operating rate increased by 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%, while the national profile operating rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 57.5%. [3] - On May 12, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 601,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 35,000 tons from May 6. It is expected to break through the 600,000 - ton mark this Thursday. [3] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream operating rates, as well as macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, but the supply is expected to recover in July. The demand improvement is limited, and the subsequent demand outlook is pessimistic. The Sino - US tariff negotiation consensus may drive the price to rebound, but considering supply recovery and weak demand, try shorting in the 265,000 - 270,000 range and focus on the supply recovery rhythm [1]. Copper - Macroeconomic factors such as tariffs and the "232" investigation affect copper prices. The supply of raw materials is tight, and domestic inventories are low. The demand in the peak season may not be sustainable. The copper market shows a "strong current + weak expectation" pattern, with prices expected to be volatile in the short - term, and focus on the demand after May and tariff negotiation progress [2]. Aluminum - For alumina, the operating capacity may fluctuate, demand is stable with limited growth, and the cost support is weakening. Prices are expected to be volatile. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable, demand may decline, but the low inventory and tariff relaxation support the price. Overall, the price is expected to be weak, with a support range of 18,000 - 18,500 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is loose. Refined zinc supply was affected by over - expected maintenance in April. Downstream demand is weak, and the purchasing index is weakening. Short - term prices may be supported by tariff relaxation. In the long - term, consider shorting, and focus on ore production and downstream demand changes [6]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market fluctuates. The tariff negotiation result has a short - term impact on sentiment. The supply pressure is clear, demand is relatively flat, and inventory is high. Prices may stabilize in the short - term, but the upside is limited. The overall strategy is to short on rallies, with a reference range of 62,000 - 66,000 [9]. Nickel - The nickel market is affected by the rumored Philippine ore ban and tariff negotiation results. The cost support is strong, but the medium - term supply is loose, restricting the upside. The price is expected to be in a range - bound adjustment, with a reference range of 122,000 - 128,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is affected by tariff negotiation results. The ore price provides support, but the supply is excessive, and demand is slowly recovering. The inventory pressure eases slightly. The price is expected to be volatile, with a reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.23% to 262,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 72.79% to - 43.01 dollars/ton [1]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit/Loss - The import loss decreased by 74.84% to - 2,373.05 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.19 [1]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increased by 37.50% [1]. Fundamental Data - In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75%, and refined tin imports increased by 12.41%. The export of refined tin decreased by 29.50%, and the export of Indonesian refined tin increased by 46.15% [1]. Inventory Change - SHEF inventory decreased by 2.13%, social inventory increased by 3.66%, SHEF warrants decreased by 0.85%, and LME inventory increased by 3.14% [1]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.09% to 78,275 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased. The import loss increased to - 570 yuan/ton [2]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts decreased, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 180 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32% to 112.57 million tons. In March, imports increased by 15.24% to 30.88 million tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod decreased, and inventories in various regions decreased [2]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.02% to 19,810 yuan/ton. The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17% to 754.90 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% to 371.42 million tons. The operating rates of some aluminum products changed, and inventories decreased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.22% to 22,720 yuan/ton. The spreads of different contracts decreased [6]. Fundamental Data - In April, refined zinc production increased by 0.31% to 50.98 million tons. In March, imports increased by 9.47% to 5.78 million tons, and exports decreased by 77.37% to 0.02 million tons. The operating rates of downstream industries increased, and inventories increased [6]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.00% to 64,600 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 147.71% [9]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [9]. Fundamental Data - In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65% to 73,810 tons, and demand increased by 3.02% to 89,627 tons. In March, imports increased by 47.03% to 18,125 tons, and exports decreased by 47.25% to 220 tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.92% to 127,225 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 3.73% [11]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [11]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In April, China's refined nickel production increased by 6.08% to 36,300 tons, and imports decreased by 68.84%. Inventories in various regions decreased [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coils increased, and the basis decreased [14]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [14]. Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and Indonesian production decreased by 6.67%. Imports decreased, exports increased, and inventories changed slightly [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon are all ★★★, indicating a more distinct long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends and influencing factors for each product. Uncertainties such as demand, inventory, and tariff policies have a significant impact on the market. It is recommended to pay close attention to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [1][2][3]. Summary by Product Steel - The steel futures market opened high and closed low today. Due to pre - holiday downstream replenishment overdraft and approaching off - season, demand weakened. Rebar apparent demand dropped significantly, production declined slightly, and inventory increased. Hot - rolled coil demand also declined, production was stable, and inventory increased. High iron - water production led to increased supply pressure, and concerns about negative feedback emerged due to insufficient terminal acceptance. The market's expectation of domestic demand is still pessimistic, and the short - term market may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant policies [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market fluctuated today. Globally, iron ore shipments decreased compared to the previous period but were slightly stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals continued to decline, and port inventories decreased. With low berthing volume, the overall inventory pressure is not large. Terminal demand has declined from its peak, but high iron - water production still supports actual demand. Although there are rumors of production restrictions, there are also positive factors from external trade negotiations. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure of iron - water production peaking and falling in the medium term [2]. Coke - Coke prices remained weak. A price cut is expected on Thursday this week, and daily production has been increasing slightly. Coke inventory has not been effectively reduced and remains at a high level, and traders have no purchasing enthusiasm. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, downstream iron - water production is stable at a high level, and steel billet export orders are good. Attention should be paid to the evolution of steel exports. Due to tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are relatively weak. Production has gradually climbed to a relatively high level this year. The activity in the spot auction market is low, the transaction price has slightly decreased, and terminal inventory is still high. The total coking coal inventory is basically flat, and the production - end inventory pressure remains high. Downstream coking plants and steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement. The futures price is at a discount, and it is affected by inventory and tariff policies. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5]. Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The manganese ore inventory at national ports has been increasing, with an increase of over 300,000 tons last week. It is expected that about 50,000 tons of South32 Australian ore will arrive at the port by the end of this month. With high and stable iron - water production, silicon manganese supply continues to decline, and the overall inventory has increased significantly, suppressing prices. As manganese ore inventory starts to increase, there may be a short - term rebound drive. It is recommended to wait and see and pay continuous attention to tariff trends [6]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Iron - water production remained stable at a high level. Export demand decreased slightly month - on - month, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal was basically flat and remained at a high level, and overall demand was acceptable. Ferrosilicon supply rebounded slightly, market transactions were average, and on - balance - sheet inventory continued to increase. There may be a short - term rebound drive. It is recommended to wait and see and pay continuous attention to tariff trends [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is bearish with weak fundamentals and high inventory. The price is expected to remain weak, with the main contract ranging from 62,000 to 66,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Tin**: The supply side is expected to recover, while the demand outlook is pessimistic. The price may rebound due to macro - sentiment but is likely to be bearish in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery rhythm [4]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment is temporarily stable, and the cost provides support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is expanding, and the inventory pressure is slightly relieved. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,600 to 13,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. - **Zinc**: The supply side may become looser, and the demand is weak. The price may be supported in the short - term, but in the long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate, and the aluminum price is expected to be weak, with the support level at 18,000 - 18,500 yuan/ton [12]. - **Copper**: The copper market shows a "strong reality + weak expectation" pattern. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 77,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton pressure level [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 65,250 yuan/ton, while battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.23%. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 10,800% [1]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.99% to 259,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.06% to 124,825 yuan/ton [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained unchanged at 13,050 yuan/ton [6]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.35% to 22,770 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.05% to 19,610 yuan/ton [12]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.29% to 78,205 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamentals - **Lithium Carbonate**: In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65%, while demand increased by 3.02%. Inventory increased by 6.81% [1]. - **Tin**: In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75% [4]. - **Nickel**: In April, China's refined nickel products increased by 6.08%, and imports decreased by 68.84% [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.65%, and exports increased by 70.98% [6]. - **Zinc**: In April, refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, and the social inventory increased by 8.18% [9]. - **Aluminum**: In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17%, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% [12]. - **Copper**: In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 7.33% [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [7] Core Viewpoints - High inventory pressure is evident, leading to a further decline in coal prices. As of May 9, coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports reached 33.051 million tons, up 6.50% month-on-month and 42.15% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period [2][5] - The recent week saw a downward trend in port coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao port's thermal coal closing price averaging 638 RMB/ton, down 14 RMB/ton (-2.18%) compared to the previous week, indicating that downstream pressure is greater than upstream [3][5] - The report suggests that short-term stabilization of coal prices may require a recovery in demand, recommending a defensive approach towards the current sector, particularly favoring companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profitability such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [5] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - The Qinhuangdao port's thermal coal price (5500 kcal weekly average) was 638 RMB/ton, down 14 RMB/ton (-2.18%) for the week of May 5-9 [3] - The average price of thermal mixed coal at the Yulin pit in Shaanxi (5800 kcal) was 510 RMB/ton, down 6 RMB/ton (-1.21%) [3] Inventory Levels - As of May 9, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 7.53 million tons, up 8.03% month-on-month and 56.22% year-on-year, also at a record high for the same period [5] - The report highlights that the inventory levels at independent coking plants and sample steel mills are currently at low levels [5] Production and Utilization Rates - The operating rate of 110 sample washing plants was 62.4%, down 0.5 percentage points month-on-month and 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, remaining at a five-year low [4] - The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 92.09%, up 0.09 percentage points month-on-month and 4.42 percentage points year-on-year, with a daily average pig iron output of 2.457 million tons, reflecting a slight increase [4] Key Company Forecasts - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, all rated as "Accumulate" [6] - China Shenhua's EPS for 2024 is projected at 2.95 RMB, with a PE ratio of 13 [6]

【现货】据Mysteel，截至5月8日，无锡宏旺304冷轧价格13050元/吨，日环比持平；佛山宏旺304冷轧价 格13100元/吨，日环比持平；基差515元/吨，日环比上涨5元/吨。 【原料】菲律宾部分矿山6月资源已售，在1.4%FOB43成交；印尼5月一期镍矿内贸升水去至+26- 27，二期内贸基价预计上涨，雨季影响下镍矿供应仍偏紧。印尼政府新的税收政策落地，镍产品特许权 使用费增加了对镍金属的1.5%的税费。镍铁价格松动，铁价格承压下跌，最新主流钢厂在940元/镍（到 厂含税），铁厂暂停报价。 【供应】据Mysteel统计，5月国内43家不锈钢厂粗钢预计排产348.99万吨，月环比减少0.4%，同比增加 5.8%；其中300系177.6万吨，环比减少2.6%，同比增加7.5%。4月不锈钢粗钢产量350.25万吨，300系产 量182.43万吨。 【逻辑】昨日不锈钢盘面维持窄幅波动，现货价格基本持稳，现货采买意愿不强，商家在市场需求偏淡 以及库存压力之下价格调整幅度不大。宏观方面，近期关税问题淡化，市场对美国与各方谈判保持观 望，政策仍有不确定性因素，但情绪基本已经修复。近期矿端价格相对坚挺，铬矿现货源紧 ...