近期，伴随政策持续赋能与国际化进程加速，我国创新药产业迎来高质量发展新阶段。恒生创新药ETF （520500）作为聚焦港股创新药龙头企业的投资工具之一，正获得市场广泛关注。行业基本面向好，叠 加流动性预期改善，创新药板块配置价值或凸显。 政策来源：2025/9/12，国家药监局-《关于优化创新药临床试验审评审批有关事项的公告》 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。如需购买相关基金产品，请您关注投资者适当性管理相关规定， 提前做好风险测评，并根据您自身的风险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金的过往 业绩并不预示其未来表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证。基金投资 需注意投资风险，请仔细阅读基金合同、基金招募说明书和产品资料概要等法律文件，了解基金的具体 情况。本基金可投资于境外证券市场，还将面临汇率风险、境外证券市场风险等特殊投资风险。指数由 恒生指数公司编制并发布，其所有权归属恒生指数公司。指数由恒生指数有限公司（"恒生"）编制和计 算，其所有权归属恒生。恒生将采取一切必要措施以确保指数的准确性，但不对此作任何保证，亦不因 指数的任何错误对任何人负责。 MACD金叉信号形 ...

Core Viewpoint - The influx of mainland capital into the Hong Kong stock market has accelerated in 2025, with a net buying amount of 1.09 trillion HKD by September 15, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics and pricing logic towards a new era of domestic pricing in Hong Kong stocks [2][3][4]. Group 1: Capital Inflow Dynamics - As of September 15, 2025, the net buying amount of southbound funds reached 1.09 trillion HKD, exceeding the total net buying amounts from 2020 to 2024, which were 672.125 billion HKD, 454.396 billion HKD, 386.291 billion HKD, 318.842 billion HKD, and 807.869 billion HKD respectively [3]. - The continuous inflow of southbound funds is reshaping the pricing logic and ecological structure of the Hong Kong stock market, leading to a liquidity boom driven by these funds [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Focus and Trends - The primary focus of the inflow is on high-growth sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and technology, with significant interest in leading internet companies like Alibaba, Meituan, and Tencent [2][5]. - By September 15, 2025, southbound funds had net purchases of over 130 billion HKD in Alibaba, more than 50 billion HKD in Meituan, and approximately 25 billion HKD in Tencent, highlighting strong investor confidence in these companies [5][6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Multiple institutions express optimism about the future of the Hong Kong stock market, suggesting that liquidity easing and improving corporate earnings will support a structural market rally, particularly in technology and finance sectors [7][8]. - The potential for a U.S. interest rate cut could further enhance the attractiveness of the Hong Kong market, allowing it to capture more international capital seeking higher-risk assets [7][8].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The current cycle for the non-ferrous metals industry is at the brink of a new upward trend, positioned at the tail end of an economic downturn. Global economic data suggests a potential bottoming out and stabilization in major economies next year, which could lead to a new liquidity easing cycle, typically resulting in commodity prices entering a trend upward within two months [2][5]. Key Insights on Cobalt and Silver - Cobalt and silver are prioritized as investment choices due to their potential for significant price increases. Cobalt, primarily sourced from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), accounts for approximately 76% of global supply. Export restrictions since February 2023 are expected to tighten supply, with historical price surges exceeding 200% during similar conditions. Current cobalt prices are around 270,000 CNY, with projections to rise to 350,000 CNY or even above 400,000 CNY [6][7]. - Silver is viewed as a precious metal with considerable upside potential. The current market for silver is relatively restrained, but as the economy stabilizes and demand increases, silver is expected to show greater elasticity. The gold-silver ratio is currently around 85, with expectations to correct to below 60, indicating a potential price increase of over 50% for silver [6][8]. Supply-Side Disturbances - Supply-side disturbances have significantly impacted the non-ferrous metals market, with various restrictions leading to price increases for metals like copper, aluminum, tungsten, and rare earths. Factors include policy export controls, smelting area restrictions, and decreased logistics efficiency due to global fragmentation [3][5]. Cobalt Market Dynamics - The cobalt market is entering a phase of sustained supply-demand tension, with expectations of a continuous shortfall starting in 2025. The strategic nature of cobalt, along with its current market conditions, positions it similarly to rare earths and tungsten as a critical investment [7][10]. Silver Market Characteristics - The silver market exhibits distinct phase characteristics. During periods of economic weakness, the gold-silver ratio tends to hover around 90. However, with economic recovery, industrial demand is expected to significantly improve the ratio, leading to substantial price increases for silver [8][11]. Investment Strategies - For cobalt, focus on companies involved in copper-cobalt or nickel-copper mining, such as Luoyang Molybdenum, which has a production estimate of 110,000 to 120,000 tons for 2024. Despite potential production cuts due to quota systems, price increases will likely enhance overall performance [10]. - In the silver sector, it is recommended to target lead-zinc mining companies that report high silver yields in their annual reports, as well as lead-zinc smelting enterprises that possess significant silver refining capacity [9]. Copper Market Insights - The copper market is currently influenced by a safety incident at the Grasberg mine, which may lead to a temporary production halt. Demand remains robust, but purchasing enthusiasm declines when prices exceed 9,700 USD. The supply-demand balance is still relatively stable, making a trend upward unlikely until global economic stabilization occurs [4][12]. Aluminum Sector Highlights - The electrolytic aluminum sector is experiencing a favorable trading environment, with no new production expected from domestic power companies. This situation is likely to enhance dividend payouts from leading companies such as Zhonglv, Hongqiao, and Shenhuo Tianshan [14]. Gold Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for gold is influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts, with potential price increases contingent on economic data and the extent of rate reductions. A favorable combination of rate cuts and economic performance could significantly benefit gold prices [15].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the commodity industry. Core Viewpoint - In the context of positive liquidity, the commodity market may operate stably in the short term. Geopolitical disturbances persist, but the expectation of loose liquidity and peak demand season provides support [1]. Market Review Overall Market - Last week, the rise - fall ratio of the commodity market was basically flat compared to the previous week. The precious metals sector led the gain with 2.34%, followed by the non - ferrous metals with 0.35%. The energy - chemical, agricultural products, and black sectors declined by 1.26%, 0.65%, and 0.01% respectively [1][5]. - The top - gainers were gold, silver, and aluminum with increases of 2.28%, 2.27%, and 2.05% respectively. The top - losers were natural rubber, palm oil, and asphalt, dropping 3.09%, 2.41%, and 2.01% respectively [1][5]. - The decline of the 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to narrow. Most sectors saw a decrease in volatility. The overall market scale increased, with most of the capital inflow coming from the precious metals sector, while the scale of the black and agricultural products sectors decreased slightly [1]. Sub - sectors - **Precious Metals**: The increase in weekly initial jobless claims and cooling inflation data led the market to fully price in three Fed rate cuts this year. However, the sector showed signs of fatigue after continuous rises. Geopolitical disturbances may amplify short - term fluctuations [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: A weaker dollar and the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season provided support. Although the inventory inflection point was not clear, downstream consumption in the automotive and power industries was strong, and the sector may operate stably in the short term [2]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand and production of rebar continued to decline, and inventory continued to accumulate. Blast furnaces resumed production rapidly, and hot metal output increased significantly. However, low steel mill profits may limit further复产. The raw material market was volatile, and the cost increase supported the industry chain, but price contradictions intensified after the cost rebound [2]. - **Energy**: The IEA's September oil market report showed that the upward adjustment of the supply forecast was greater than that of the demand, increasing the market surplus. Geopolitical factors supported oil prices in the short term, but the mid - term surplus limited the geopolitical premium [2]. - **Chemical Industry**: For polyester, terminal weaving orders increased, and the textile and dyeing industry's operating rate rose slightly. However, high inventory and poor profits of polyester filaments led to slow load increases. The industry chain's valuation may recover relative to oil prices [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA's September supply - demand report was neutral to bearish. U.S. soybeans rebounded after a brief correction and may continue to be strong in the short term. Palm oil was supported by the mid - term seasonal production cut cycle, long - term biodiesel policies, and aging trees, providing a floor for the oil market [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.3%. The total scale of gold ETFs increased by 1.36%, and the total scale of commodity ETFs increased by 1.41%. However, the trading volume of most gold ETFs decreased [35]. - The energy - chemical ETF had a return of - 0.42%, the soybean meal ETF had a return of 0.96%, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a return of 0.88%, and the silver fund had a return of 1.81% [35][36].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a fluctuating upward trend from September 8 to September 12, with chip and semiconductor-related ETFs leading the gains, with two chip-related ETFs rising over 10% [1] - A total of 1,095 ETFs achieved positive returns during the same period, with over 80% of products showing positive returns, particularly in the chip and semiconductor sectors [1][2] - The overall net inflow of funds into the ETF market was 6.946 billion yuan, with stock-type ETFs being the main contributors to this inflow [2][3] Group 2 - Battery-related ETFs also performed well, with the lithium battery ETF rising by 17.74% since the beginning of September, while six gold stock-related ETFs saw an increase of around 14% [2] - The highest trading volumes were recorded for ETFs tracking the CSI A500, Hang Seng Technology, and Hong Kong Securities Index, with weekly trading volumes reaching 126.76 billion yuan, 91.54 billion yuan, and 79.88 billion yuan respectively [3] - The net outflow of funds was primarily seen in sci-tech related ETFs, with the Sci-Tech 50 ETF experiencing a net outflow of 4.161 billion yuan [3] Group 3 - The outlook for the A-share market remains positive, supported by loose liquidity and potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which may lead to a revaluation of global risk assets [3][4] - The market is expected to attract more external funds due to favorable domestic policies and a continued focus on capital returns [4] - Investment opportunities are suggested in the AI industry chain and advanced manufacturing sectors, which are expected to improve fundamentally [4]

Core Insights - On September 11, the A-share market saw a significant inflow into stock ETFs, totaling 15.611 billion yuan, as major indices rose, particularly the ChiNext Index which surged by 5.15% [1][2] Group 1: ETF Inflows - The total scale of all stock ETFs in the market reached 4.32 trillion yuan as of September 11, with a net inflow of 15.611 billion yuan on that day [2] - The Hong Kong market ETFs led the inflows, attracting 7.359 billion yuan, with innovative drug-related products seeing the most significant inflows [2] - The net inflow for broad-based ETFs was 5.396 billion yuan, with the ETF tracking the CSI A500 index receiving 2.524 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The brokerage sector, referred to as the "bull market flag bearer," experienced notable gains, with several securities ETFs seeing net inflows [3] - The battery sector also received substantial inflows, with the battery ETF from GF Fund attracting 507 million yuan, making it the largest in the market with a total scale of 9.952 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Institutional Activity - E Fund's ETFs saw net inflows of 2.8 billion yuan in both the Hang Seng Technology ETF and the A500 ETF, with a total increase in scale of 22.52 billion yuan on the previous day [4] - Hua Xia Fund's ETFs, particularly the SSE 50 ETF and A500 ETF, also saw significant inflows of 1.934 billion yuan and 288 million yuan, respectively [4] Group 4: Outflows - The ETF tracking the Sci-Tech 50 index experienced the largest net outflow, totaling 2.122 billion yuan, along with other sector-specific ETFs like photovoltaic and semiconductor ETFs [6] Group 5: Market Outlook - E Fund's index research department anticipates that a loose liquidity environment will support A-share valuations, with potential benefits from a weaker dollar and ongoing domestic monetary policies [7] - The overall market trend is expected to continue upward, driven by policy support and improved market perceptions, particularly benefiting cyclical core assets like the CSI 300 and CSI A500 indices [7]

Core Viewpoint - On September 11, the A-share market saw a significant inflow of funds into stock ETFs, totaling 15.611 billion yuan, indicating a strong market sentiment and investment interest in various sectors [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Fund Flows - The total scale of all stock ETFs in the market reached 4.32 trillion yuan as of September 11, with a net inflow of 15.611 billion yuan on that day [5]. - The Hong Kong market ETFs led the inflow, attracting 7.359 billion yuan, particularly in the innovative drug sector, which saw significant buying activity despite a market downturn [6]. - The broad-based ETFs also experienced substantial inflows, totaling 5.396 billion yuan, with the ETF tracking the CSI A500 index receiving 2.524 billion yuan [6]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The innovative drug ETFs from GF Fund and Yinhua Fund saw net inflows of 2.297 billion yuan and 1.051 billion yuan, respectively, despite the sector facing a downturn [6][8]. - The battery sector also attracted significant investment, with GF Fund's battery ETF receiving a net inflow of 507 million yuan, making it the largest in the market with a total scale of 9.952 billion yuan [7][9]. - The brokerage sector, referred to as the "bull market flag bearer," saw multiple securities ETFs achieve net inflows, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect non-bank ETF accumulating over 1 billion yuan in net buying this week [6][9]. Group 3: Outflows and Market Trends - The ChiNext 50 ETF experienced the largest outflow, totaling 2.122 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment away from this sector [10][11]. - Other sectors facing outflows included photovoltaic, semiconductor, and artificial intelligence ETFs, reflecting a broader trend of profit-taking in these areas [12]. - Looking ahead, the easing liquidity environment is expected to support A-share valuations, with potential benefits for cyclical core assets like the CSI 300 and CSI A500 indices [13].

Macro News - The U.S. government revised down the non-farm employment numbers by 911,000 for the year ending in March, averaging a decrease of nearly 76,000 jobs per month, marking the largest downward revision since 2000 [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in a significant trade dispute during the first week of November [1] - French President Macron appointed 39-year-old Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu as the new Prime Minister amid a €3 trillion debt crisis [1] - Israel reported precision strikes against Hamas leaders in Qatar, confirming the deaths of five members in airstrikes, while Khalil al-Hayya was not assassinated [1] Institutional Perspectives - Precious metal prices generally retreated in the previous trading day, with COMEX gold futures down 0.37% at $3,663.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.31% at $41.36 per ounce [1] - The downward revision of U.S. non-farm employment data exceeded market expectations, further confirming the weakness in the U.S. job market, leading to a short-term correction in precious metals [1] - Current bullish factors for gold include expectations of liquidity easing, as August non-farm data fell short of expectations, with the market fully pricing in rate cuts starting in September and three cuts within the year [1] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve were heightened by a court ruling declaring Trump's tariff policy illegal and the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, alongside political instability in France and Japan, which increased uncertainty in non-U.S. markets and boosted safe-haven demand for gold [1] - Looking ahead, with declining employment and rising inflation, expectations for liquidity easing are likely to provide support for gold and silver prices, with limited downside potential in the short term [1] - The expected trading range for Comex gold is between $3,500 and $3,750 per ounce, while the Shanghai gold range is between ¥795 and ¥835 per gram [1] - The expected trading range for Comex silver is between $39 and $42 per ounce, and for Shanghai silver, it is between ¥9,500 and ¥10,000 per kilogram [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. economic data, particularly the August PPI, has reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a bullish sentiment in the gold market. Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The U.S. August PPI showed a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, marking the first negative change in four months, and the year-on-year growth was 2.6%, below the expected 3.3% [1] - The core PPI for August also fell short of expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8% compared to the anticipated 3.5% [3] - The weak employment data further supports the notion that the Federal Reserve may need to implement rate cuts, with market expectations stabilizing around three cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the release of the PPI data, there is a strong expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, which has led to a bullish outlook for gold prices [2][4] - BNP Paribas forecasts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce within the next two to six months, driven by the weak job market and economic slowdown [4] - The geopolitical tensions, including the situation between Russia and Poland, as well as the recent conflict involving Israel, have contributed to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The stock and bond markets are exhibiting a "seesaw" effect since July, with A-shares entering a liquidity "bull market" due to stable fundamentals and policies, attracting steady capital inflows, while the bond market faces pressure [1] - Recent data indicates an expansion in the discount of long-term stock index futures contracts, and the implied volatility of call options has decreased more significantly than that of put options, suggesting a rebound in market risk appetite [1] Group 2: Central Bank and Treasury Coordination - A joint meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the central bank discussed the operation of government bonds and the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, with expectations rising for the central bank to resume net purchases of government bonds [2] - The central bank's past net purchases of government bonds from August to December 2024 totaled 1 trillion yuan, leading to a rapid decline in the interest rate center by year-end [2] Group 3: Policy Implications - The expectation of the central bank's bond purchases may have limited short-term impact on the bond market due to sufficient liquidity management tools already in place and a lack of significant supply pressure in the fourth quarter [3] - The central bank's potential strategy of "buying short and selling long" could steepen the yield curve, which may not be favorable for long-term interest rates [3] Group 4: Fund Management Regulations - The China Securities Regulatory Commission proposed new regulations for public fund sales, including full allocation of redemption fees to fund assets and a unified redemption fee rate, aimed at encouraging long-term holding by investors [5] - The changes in fund management fees may reduce the attractiveness of bond funds for liquidity management, potentially shifting demand towards bond ETFs, while also enhancing the yield of bond funds over the long term [5] Group 5: Economic Indicators and Trading Strategy - Recent data shows an improvement in the manufacturing PMI, but issues of supply and demand mismatch persist, with lower growth in imports and exports [6] - The overall market sentiment remains high, but the bond market is expected to operate under "headwinds," with a forecast of weak fluctuations in the short term, while mid-term improvements in inflation and corporate earnings could lead to significant declines in the bond market [6]